Tax Receipts In Energy-Producing States Plummet: "Largest Decline Since 2006"

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to the state of the US economy, it is all about surveys. On Friday we got the BLS' establishment and household surveys, both massively revised and seasonally-adjusted, meant to estimate the state of the US job market. Supposedly they were "unambiguously good." Here, on the other hand, is Evercore ISI with its Company and State Tax Receipt surveys. The verdict, looking at what is happening at both the corporate and state level, and especially the energy-producing tax receipt level which just fell off a cliff, is that "the US Economy is not taking off."

From Evercore ISI:

Our Company Survey Diffusion Index (CSDI) rose from -4.1% to -3.5% this week. Breadth has been weak across industries, but recent industrial data is a little better. The softness in breadth has frequently been a lead indicator of the broad Company Surveys and suggests we are not getting a breakout in U.S. growth. The weakness in breadth in our Company Surveys has generally correlated with low levels of yield on the 10-year treasury.



Our survey of overall tax receipts moderated this month, moving down from 53.5 to 47.1, driven exclusively by softness from energy producing states.


And the worst news for the US economy, at least the real US economy, not that which is based on central-bank rigging of "markets" and "seasonally-adjusted", "revised" employment data:

Overall receipts in energy producing states declined from 62.5 to 37.5, their largest 1 month decline since August 2006, while overall receipts in nonenergy producing states were up slightly from 49.4 to 51.5.



Or, as CNBC would again say, "unambiguously good."

Source: Evercore ISIS

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I am more equal than others's picture



May I have more?...... toast, burnt and smoldering....

ZerOhead's picture

There will be no need to worry about low oil prices once Hitlers spring offensive in the uKraine gets underway...

847328_3527's picture
Economists forecast a recession for Houston


I suspect this applies to many other cities heavily dependent on O&G.

aVileRat's picture

If you really want to see something fun, take a look at the occupancy rates for the major oil centers.

I can't see how most of these govts. are going to be able to roll over their entitled spending, and how the Obama govt. budget will work, if we are looking at a 20% shortfall in federal revenues generated from tax windfalls, without finding a method to make up that tax shortfall with either 1.) windfall oil taxes; and confiscation of the "retail spending money" generated by cheap oil or 2.) a massive acceptance global govt spending is going to go massive deficit in 2015/17, which should mean muni and regional govt bond auctions should spike, hard, into the summer.

That is something the Obama gov, and gov in general needs to 'lean in' on.

On another note, Kouric will likely get the top job. I'd wager 30% of Brians stories were bunk. And the new question needs to start; who was letting Brian file bad stories for 10 years, and how did someone in his nature get away with that given NBC had one of the largest fact check depts in the industry.

Omen IV's picture

"how did someone in his nature get away with that given NBC had one of the largest "fact check" depts in the industry."

what does a fact mean in the context of entertainment ?

Williams had risen to the status of an "Entertainer" in which case all his communications were based upon ratings not anything else





aVileRat's picture

In journalism, like finance you need to send to your editor your references. Even if it's just a email list, or a meeting with your sources before going to press. Failure to bullet proof your sources leads, as Blackberry and Retuers are learning with a big ass lawsuit, and potentially the paper/source/site being fined for slander or other fun tort damages.

Even if the entire NBC establishment is a sock puppet, they still are bound to report on creditable sources and news feeds. It's like a bank. Even if they money sources are all crooked and your entire tier 1 capital pool is filled with meth money from Odessa, you still are obligated to produce audited P&L sheets and statements of account for each account holder. And regardless on the quality and sources of the accounts,  you have to publish your numbers to a standard.

This problem, brings to a head the large inconsistency in reporting since 2001 whereby stories have been filed with bad information, and then released to the airwaves knowing they fail to pass audit. It would be like your prime broker or gold trustee giving you bad statements, knowing they were bad, but publishing them anyways. Huge scandal, and bad for confidence

as it either implies

1. Your staff is inept and a danger to the system

2. They knew it was fraud, and kept on doing it until they were caught

either 1 or 2 imply the system needs to be rebuilt, and I doubt this plot ends with Williams. Not to get too far off track, as we got another thread and article for just this problem.


Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

because eCONomists have been so rigth about their predictions before, lol

Blano's picture

Texas might be toast, but I'd still rather be here than anywhere else and just ride it out. 

trader1's picture

stay clear of megachurch communities.


nightshiftsucks's picture

Yeah right next to the Mexican border,I wouldn't want to be there.

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Sarc hat off....Quick everyone jump on the I hate Texas bandwagon...You'd better hope we don't succed...we have everything we need right here (except a bunch of winey libtards).  Don't worry about us, worry about your pathetic state that wishes it had our resources...we'll be fine, the rest of the Country, that's up for debate....we also have this thing called a rainy day fund, you see we are the polar opposite of Cali and have plenty of cash on hand. Kindly fuck off. lol

Arnold's picture

Domestic immigrants tend to try to make their new spot similar to what crap they left behind.

The Texas boom has some unraveling to do.

Good luck to you.

Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Austin is not considered Texas

Drummond's picture

Quick question on Greece -

If Greece does not except any more EU loans what options does it have?

Can it leave the euro and what would that mean?

new game's picture

on subject here:they could frack for oil, lots a rigs cheap in nd and tx. shipping to greece could get a tad spendy. ps. there is another thread that talks ad nasseum bout your thread jack question...

lasvegaspersona's picture


If you are paying attention then you would know that that is the question of the decade.

Keep reading, you will get 20 different opinions, all from people who do not really know what the parties involved are going to do.

My guess is that coax Greece into staying in the EU but anything could happen.

Drummond's picture

I know I'm slightly thread jacking here but if both parties stand their ground then surely the Greeks are out and I suppose what I'm asking - Is it financially possible for them to return to Drachma and if they could find trade with the East would the new currency immediately hyperinflate?

Drummond's picture

Ahh fuck it. It's all speculation and we will find out soon enough.....

Money_for_Nothing's picture

Obama will give them a loan just like Clinton did for Mexico in 1995. Congress, Russia, and maybe the EU will be livid. China and the rest of the world probably won't care.

yrbmegr's picture

Greece can leave the euro, but it will cause substantial short-term inflation, and possibly supply disruptions.  After awhile, tourism will flourish, and that might turn the Greek economy around.

ThisIsBob's picture

If Greece leaves the EU they can probably expect many visitors coming in just to pat them on the back.

new game's picture

hey, could it be tyme to get on out to williston and pick up a home for cheap and wait er out for oil to sky rocket to 100 plus per bbl. in bout 6 months the discount game will be well under way. give it a year and the banks will be given em away cause everybody knows nd is one lovely place to live , specially come winter, ha...

847328_3527's picture

It's one of the most unambiguously robustest rekoveries I've ever seen:


Here are the 1,784 RadioShack stores that will close by March 31

10mm's picture

Radio Shack had it's day. Surprised they lasted this long.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Here in Cali we solve all our budgetary problems on mythical future earnings like Facebook IPOs etc. Wipes out terrible deficits every time. Then we can have fun and build high speed rail to nowhere to look even more intelligent. We don't let pesky things such as math and reality spoil our lives.


Hulk's picture

and besides, Maff is way too hard, spending is way easy !!!

kaiserhoff's picture

Well of course.  You've got Tinsel Town.

I do wonder about that 9% return forevuh the state pension plans are projecting.

Seems a tad frothy;)

gwar5's picture

That was quick.

Milestones's picture

Gee Wiz, looks like the gubermint bambozzled us again. Golly darn, think we otta maybe start askin O'blah, blah  for some kinda explainin as to what in tarnation hes adoin? Maybe a sharp stick poked around a bit is aneeded.           Milestones

herman55's picture

The State of North Dakota is short $4 1/2 billion dollars from what they budgeted last October.

The entire Legislature, which only meets every 2 years for 80 days, this year being one of those years is frantically trying to cull and cut expenditures.