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Guest Post: 5 Reasons To Buy Gold & Silver In 2015
Submitted by Dan Popescu via GoldBroker.com,
Before I go into the five reasons to buy gold in 2015, let me go through four hypotheses for the future price of gold and silver.
Hypotheses for 2015
The first hypothesis is that the present bear market is not finished and it would have another one or two legs down all the way to where it started at $300. On a technical basis, it can be defended if you believe $1,900 was the end of a bubble started in 2000. I don’t. Many other technical, but also fundamental, factors make me give this scenario a very low probability.
The second hypothesis is that we will retrace down to the area of $1000 to $700. This scenario is more probable but, in my view, it should have happened by now and sentiment indicators are so bearish that I don’t see a move to $700, which would be a total retracement of the bull leg started in 2009. A short spike to $1000 is more possible, which would be approximately a 50% retracement from the top, but I think it should have happened by now.
The third hypothesis would be a continuation of the sideways pattern with price oscillating between $1100 and $1400 before a move in either direction happens in 2016. This is a good possibility if central banks manage to avoid a collapse of the international monetary system. Recent events make me believe some “black swan” event or a combination of them will end this sideways movement sooner.
The fourth hypothesis, and the one I prefer, is the beginning of the mania phase described by the bubble model below. I still believe the most probable path is that the next bubble phase of this major secular bull market in gold and silver would begin in 2015 to 2017 and would end at the latest by 2022. Those dates are approximations with a big margin of error. I don’t expect a progressive move but a quantum leap with at least $500/day moves, as we have seen in the ‘70s when gold moved from $100 to $850. We have been, in my opinion, in a bear trap similar to the one shown in the graph below. The main cause of this mania phase is the collapse of the present dollar-based international monetary system, which will end also the present currency wars with a reset.
The year 2015 has started with several conflicts, which all are bullish for gold, and all can degenerate in a major crisis, pushing gold well above $2,000.
I do believe we are very close to the end of this Fed-created bull market in U.S. stocks and I don’t believe the US dollar is on its way to a major bull run like in the ‘80s. I also believe the U.S. Treasuries are in a historical bubble and that the currency wars will end it. The petrodollar system is on its way out and all those dollars circulating outside the U.S. will come home, creating a run on the dollar and hyperinflation in the U.S. Tensions are growing between the U.S. and its adversaries, Russia and China. U.S. relations with the European Union are also tense.
Five Reasons to Buy Gold in 2015
1. The most important reason to buy gold in 2015 or any time, for that matter, is diversification and as an insurance against uncertainty. I was always told to have 5% to 10% in gold and pray I will never need it. In these dangerous times we live in and with the risk of a major event like a war, revolution or financial collapse, it is wise and prudent to have some of the gold and silver outside of the banking system.
2. Gold is now at a very low level and oversold. I don’t expect gold to go below $1,000. In the case of a sideways market, gold will move between $1,100 and $1,500. If gold doesn’texplode in 2015 it will still move slightly up.
3. Central banks are and will continue to buy gold and I even expect them to accelerate their buying, competing for a limited amount of gold and pushing the price up. Silver will follow gold as poor man’s gold. Central banks have been in currency wars since 2008 and they will end badly. Both Russia and China are using gold in their currency wars. A reset of the current monetary system will push gold easily to $5,000. An announcement by China of its gold reserves could get gold to test $1,900, and even $2,000, in 2015.
4. I often hear that there is no risk of hyperinflation but of deflation, therefore a negative for gold. What people ignore is that a deflationary environment is catastrophic to the banking system and excellent for gold. In a collapse of the banks, gold and silver will circulate since they are the most marketable real assets.
5. In the case of hyperinflation, which is also a high probability and can come after a short period of deflation, gold will outperform or, at least, maintain its value in real terms. In this case, $10,000 in nominal US dollars is not absurd.
All these reasons are in some way connected to the collapse of the present monetary system due to an exorbitant global debt, but especially of the United States and the European Union. Will it start this year or next? It is difficult to predict, but the recent events make me doubt the central bankers know what they are doing. We have seen this week (mid-January) that central banks don’tnecessarily coordinate and don’t know what they are doing. The Swiss National Bank reversed the peg of the Swiss franc to the euro after strongly defending it not long ago in a fight against the supporters of the Swiss gold initiative.The Swiss didn’t consult nor took into consideration other countries no more than the Fed did in its QEs. The unpegging of the franc was a cataclysmic event that caught everyone by surprise. It was, in my opinion, the first of a series of black swans of 2015. Statements as “we are in unchartered territory” and “we learn by doing” make me take precautionary action by buying real assets and, more specifically, the most liquid: gold and silver.
There is no other way of liquidating this exorbitant global debt, except by default or hyperinflation. What do you think governments will prefer? In both cases, gold and silver will at least maintain their value in real terms.
* * *
“In effect, there is nothing inherently wrong with fiat money, provided we get perfect authority and god-like intelligence for kings.” Aristotle (≈2,400 years ago)
“Yes... Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.” Alan Greenspan (2014) > Video here
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DUH! Buy gold, and don't hand it back to the government when they try to confiscate it again.
“How did you go bankrupt?"
"Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” -- Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
The time is at hand...
lol, it's 2015 and still pumping gold.
I'm confused. Why would anyone exchange their Gold for little tiny pieces of worthless green paper? The only point of doing that would be to buy more Gold with it.
I'm bagging a few monster boxes right after dyke Merkel caves to the butt fuckers...i think metals are up until then.
A monster box can be had for ~9400 ameros, never thought I'd see the day again
It's more likely that we just saw the first shoulder to a classic head shoulders pattern that is just starting to gain momentum and will likely peak just before WW3 or during the start of WW3.
Gold and silver will skyrocket once the shooting starts.
The trouble with all of these models is that we are measuring the failure or success of our gold investment choices in dollars -- wrong.
Gold is insurance to protect wealth and a hedge against central bank stupidity. I think we need to stop measuring success in U.S. dollars.... How about we measure success in pounds of butter per ounce of gold? Or maybe gallons of gas per ounce of gold?
Fiat is a poor measure of success.
The author speaks like gold is not part of the thing that changes the banking industry or the value of fiat.
Wheras if everyone exchanges fiat for gold the fiat gets changed immediately.
The gold is the wealth!
The value of a fiat currency is based on the market level of trust in its stability and redeemability. From this value, central banks and their owners get to subtract their premium in the form of inflation. For this and other reasons, it is one of the worst ways to measure the value of scarce resources like gold.
Gold, on the other hand, is a much better instrument for the measure of the relative value of other things. Over the short term, markets can do stupid things which distort these value relationships, like rehypothecating gold with paper promises. This causes the muppets to lose track of the proper relationships between valuable things in the marketplace. When these deceptions are finally unmasked, price discovery suddenly works again, and true value reappears.
The only caveats to a decision to own and accumulate gold are, one, keeping it away from people who would take it from you (includes the special breed of thieves known as government), and two, deciding if your period of ownership will be long enough such that taking fiat currency from the muppets in the short term is not a more productive investment strategy.
Five Reasons:
1- It's real money
2- It's easily transportable (if you have an ocean going boat or can buy passage on one) and a small bag can hold a large fortune
3- it's easy to hide from those who would steal it from you (unless you're so stupid to brag to your neighbor about it)
4- It has a common value world wide - everyone knows what an ounce of gold is worth, unlike diamonds with various grades/values - and can be easily traded into local fiat
5- long term, it holds up against (inflation) silly CB paper manipulation
6-
7-
8-
9-
10-
Too many to list.
I imagine there will be 100's of 1,000's of new (micro) bankers who hold/loan/trade silver/gold after the reset
Technical Anal-ists who continue to try and forecast in totally rigged market are simply foolish. The only chart that will reveal the future fundamental value for gold and silver will be known as the REVERSE CLIFF FORMATION.
However... we will not see this chart until the GREAT FIAT CURRENCY REVALUATION EVENT takes place.
Thus... there is only one excellent reason to own the precious metals... to protect oneself from the coming collapse of the GREATEST FINANCIAL PONZI SCHEME in history.
SRSrocco
Precisely my conclusion as well. Good day, sir.
tell me about. just hold gold in one hand and fiat in the other. your instincts will tell you one is substantial and permanent, and the other one, well, just isn't.
Not paper. IOUs writs.
until they come up with a new system for world reserve currency gold will be a story. i am guessing that we will 700 as that was the price when QE1 launched. and that is also when it started the parabolic move. If it hit 700 I think GDX might be the call as miners lead the bull moves.
$1200 level was fought as the cost basis for miners. but what is the cost in a deflation environment when oil drop 50%.
the other issue is how much less gold demand as central bank of china nears it goal for gold holdings to back the yuan. I see more gold for cash stores closing in LA area.
2 silver dimes bought a gallon of gas in 1947 and they still do today....maybe that's a bit tough for your to understand.
What do two WTF alloy dimes get you today
A waitress made $1.25 an hour in 1965 (minimum wage). That's equal to todays $17.50 in silver terms. It's easy to see why so many folks are struggling.
Two dimes get me a cup of coffee, albeit it's a damn small cup
Putting a silver dime's value in perspective. While its true a dime's worth of silver can purchase similar values of goods and services today like it did when silver was official US currency... its real worth is its ability to be a HIGH QUALITY STORE OF VALUE compared to the $100+ TRILLION in soon to be worthless Global Conventional Paper Assets under management.
When the world rushes to protect their wealth into physical assets such as silver. ... then we will see how valuable that little silver dime will become.
Publicus,
I don't care whether it's being pumped or not, I'm buying a little gold and silver here and there purely as a back up - will they ever be worth nothing? No.
DavidC
DavidC...don't feed the trolls mate.
If Pubic-pus is too stupid to get it, or is a paid shill...then why should we give a squirt of piss about his choices and vacuous statements.
He is not here for rational debate; he is here to antagonise, slash bus seats and smash public phone hand-sets.
He can just wash away with the rest of the flotsam and jetsam for all we should care.
Just keep stacking. In gold we trust.
What has the year got to do with it? Utterly meaningless!
Technical analysis on gold, among all this manipulation? That seems a reach.
One factor that is rarely mentioned is cryptocurrencies, bit coin and the rest. That is a huge pile of alternative money that could come streaming back to gold, once people tire of the aggravations.
Bit coin is an oxymoron.
Gold should become the only worlds currency and a crypto coin as a means for long distance payment afar.
Bitcoin and gold are complementary you dumb fucks.
"Crypto" currencies are a statist's wet dream. Fiat part deux. Some people can't think more than one step ahead. Your anonymity is an illusion, as are the "rock solid rules" behind digital scarcity. Remember, fiat was initally sold with inviolable rules, which everyone swallowed as truth.
"Remember, fiat was initally sold with inviolable rules, which everyone swallowed as truth."
The difference is that the fiat scheme is based on promises. Bitcoin is transparent in every aspect and has a consensus system which worked brilliantly for more than 6 years now. It's based on math and science.
Btw, It's pseudo anonym by default, it takes additional effort to use it anonimously. You should educate yourself before spreading false information.
Bitcoin is the statist's nigthmare :P
Bitcoin may be a statist's nightmare, but a crypto currency designed (and administered) by such isn't.
Pay bracelet anyone?
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
.......I'm making 50 bucks a month helping my friend Jack off the horse in the park.... totally cool you should check it out www.FU.jagoff.net
6. If the EU breaks up there will be a panic to get into hard assets. In fact there probably already is.
omg lolololol
wop wop wah
Uh oh - the Down Arrow Brigade©
If paper gold is sold at 100/1 against Phyzz and for arguments sake 1oz is $1000. Then straight off I make 1oz = to $100,000. And that's starting price..
if you value something too much, you will get ripped off.
true. and if you value something too little, you will likewise get ripped off.
yah like air, water freedom.
You can't "value" something that's an absolute. An ounce of AU and AG are absolutes. Fiat is relative. The creation of the former is transcendent - out of the hands of man. The creation of the latter is all too much in the hands of wicked men.
I apologize for the Sunday night pontificating. I hate sounding like Turk the Jerk or Mike Baloney.
I will give them benefit of doubt of some margin of error. $98,750USD
That's only true if the relationship is linear. I'm not sure that is a valid assumption. In fact, I'm inclined to think the relationship is exponential as in the banksters need to add increasingly more paper onto the market to get the price to move less in the direction they want. This is just my intuition speaking.
So, to summarize; "gold could go up, down or sideways. Buy gold. OK, ahhmmm, oh yeah, and buy it thru goldbroker.com, that's the ticket!"
It's a (bull/bear) trap!
There is a zero missing from the 2022 figure.
I would add one last reason: it's time for gold to go up based on historical price cycles.
I own it because my gut tells me to!
Vancouver blogs
http://www.vancouverfinancial.net/blog/blog.html
You buy because you dont trust the bankers to handle your money 1oz of gold will buy more oil now than 6 mos ago so did gold really go down my dollar wont purchase as many goods as it did 6 mos ago so fuck the bankers and ill keep my physical just wish I could have a gun but cant and hold the law
This article is interesting but flawed. The gold market has been grossly manipulated since 1980. When the dollar began it's downward slide in the early 2000's gold began it's rise. A lot of information was given but the truth was that the dollar had been over printed as well as manipulated to show false strength. Within 5 years it was a battle of the central banks against the market. At 1900 it got the same treatment natural gas got when it hit $15 in that era.
Since then charts became basically worthless as they did not show the market performance, but the manipulation performance. The same exists today. GATA has stayed with this and tracked a lot of shadey deals. Goldman was the major CB to overrun the markets, but JPM was the continual fox in the hen house. The London Metals Exchange had leverage of their gold, and customers as well, at 100 to one. Insane. Jim Willie has followed the Swiss as they discovered that they have little of the gold their banks stored for customers. Corruption, fraud, and theft were found everywhere. It still continues, but the physical is now very short shown by backwardation for the last 6 months.
Again charts do not show the market, as it is broken and not shown. Why do all the Chinese and Russian, well India too, gold purchases show no purchase prices. Because they are not even close to the phoney numbers we get from the futures market. The Futures market even admits their numbers are "shakey". ZH has covered this over and over again, and the GATA archives have even more.
We could see no gold available in the physical market yet the futures market headed down. Why. CB collusion in keeping the paper price down. 15 years of this crap.
Note that this article does not cover the real reason. It is just an ad in all effect.
Oy Vey Goyim! Every Sunday – like clockwork – buy gold! For several thousands of years we trick you with clay tablets. Give you “credit” backed by precious metals in temple for safe keeping not really there. Was never there. We make you believe it was. We give you “credit” money. Make you collateralize it with your real wealth. You always lose. Today we no longer need tangible asset collateral. Is all abstract money. We enslave you with “credit” out of thin air. Make you lose. Then steal the fruits of your labor for generations to come. No more chattel slavery. Now wage slavery. Much easier for us that way. Total control. Someday soon you will throw your gold and silver out onto the streets in defiance. Until then enjoy your bread and circuses we give you. Learn to love your servitude. Never ever let you be called anti-semite. OY- OY- OY !!!!!
I like buying it because it's a barbaric relic according to the money changers.
There is only only future with gold and silver -- and it is -- "When you need it, you must have it in your possession, or you will not be able to get it".
Buy gold because it will be worth 10k USD...wow! Well, at that point a loaf of bread might be 200k USD. Since we have been making bread in mass form for a long time now, I would rather see these graphs of how great gold is put against a loaf of bread...not fiat.
Long division is a wonderful tool.
Author stated "5%-10%" in gold, but, if you could afford it, why not make it 50%-75%?...Especially believing the economy has nowhere to go but down and dollar getting cheaper.
do any of you know of a bank loaning that kind of fiat?...i'm in the mood to take the plunge...only serious reply
Please - no more bullish articles on gold. I like bearish articles on gold or NO articles on gold like back in 2001 when we were under $300. Fucking algo-geek-squad Eccles Building c-suckers do pattern recog searches for articles like these and then whip up another 50,000 contracts of synthetic gold and sell it.
NO MOAR BOOLISH GOLD ARTICLES...please.
I think a year is not a long time in the markets. They can afford to drag this out longer than we expect. I don't think they will lose control of the precious metals smackdown anytime soon (especially this year) because they have vast resources (US tax base). Even if the economy isn't that strong, what matters is that it's stronger than in other places.
Expect more of the same. I think 5% of your disposable income should be put into gold every month, 5% silver, but the bulk should go into productive assets like a business or your progeny. Nothing will match the long-term returns of the last two.
How do you say, in Chinese: "all your gold are belong to us"
Arre your gold arrr bewrong to ushh
Ioo nogold, ol gold ussnau.
Supposedly, 62% don't have enough savings to pay for a major car repair. They likely can't even afford to buy a single gold coin.
I read just the other day that a painting sold for 300 million.
The head of Target in Canada just got 61 million. There is where the real money is to be made.
How did I go bankrupt? Slowly, then I smoked a bunch of crack and it happened really fast.
Negative interest rates = permanent gold backwardation.
Game Over.
Sept 13 2015. if you look at past posts.
I own a literal shit ton of physical gold & silver. I must be stupid.
You are only stupid if the US government declares Gold and Silver in private posession illegal and that all Gold & Silver must be surrendered unto Caesar or face immediate arrest and/or confiscation. The TSA would confiscate all things Gold and Silver in your luggage, carry on, or person if you try to fly it out of the country. Ship it? fuggetaboutit. Try to cross the border legally with physical? umm, nope. Safety deposit box with Physical? gone. Confiscated. Prevent a search warrant on your property? Good luck and even a great attorney is limited.
So are we there yet? whodafucknows. Stupid or brilliant is a fine line, sir. It could go either way. Here's to hoping for brilliant. Cheers, mate...
"You are only stupid if the US government declares Gold and Silver in private posession illegal and that all Gold & Silver must be surrendered unto Caesar or face immediate arrest and/or confiscation."
LOL...yeah, that worked really well with alcohol and pot...
Shit batman, that didn't even work in 1933. Number of arrests between 1933 and 1972 for holding coins = ZERO
Number of pre 1933 gold coins out there right now? MILLIONS
All throughout history, even before the trapezitae of ancient Greece, we always love DEFLATION. We contract “credit” money. Then we buy up all real assets for next to nothing. It has worked for several millennia. Why change it now? Look at Greece today. It had been our playground since Athens circa 600 B.C.
So lemme in on the secret of all the Jew voyages to Athens in 600BC...sort of curious about that since my understanding is that the Jews had their hands full in the promised land at that time? WTF kind of rabbi are you?
Am very humble rabbi thank you.
Secret #1 – Jews not ancient Israelites; ancient Israelites not Jews; Edom is modern Jewry (Jewish Encyclopedia, 1925, Vol 5, p. 41). Better to call “jews” what we really are - Babylonian Kabbalah Talmudists. Word “jew” not used until 1730 A.D., and means any person from ancient geographical area known as Judea, and sometimes Judahite.
Secret #2 – Babylonian imperialism well established in ancient Greece by first Millennia B.C. Babylonian money power controlled mining, bullion, armaments, slave trade. Brought in private money creative power – Ledger Credit Page Entry money – and usury. Only Greek city-state that rejected international money power was Sparta. Over time Babylonian banking houses culminated in House of Rothschild. We have always been the real power behind the throne.
Oy Vey!!!
“Yes... Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency."
Alan Greenspan
People don't use gold as currency.
There are 300 million people in the country and i would guess there isn't enough gold available to be minted into coins to use as currency for 300 million people.
Gold is a commodity. It is an asset. It has value denominated in a currency, just as a hamburger does.
"...gold will outperform or, at least, maintain its value in real terms." I would guess that a hamburger would too, in relation to a decline in the value of the curency.
"There are 300 million people in the country and i would guess there isn't enough gold available to be minted into coins to use as currency for 300 million people."
uuuuuuuuhhhhhhh...make the coins smaller? Dumb!
"There are 300 million people in the country and i would guess there isn't enough gold available to be minted into coins to use as currency for 300 million people."
uuuuuuuuhhhhhhh...make the coins smaller? Dumb!
Five reasons
1 They still guard it.
2 Everybody is trying to steal it from you.
3 count the number of times the word gold appears on the web on any given day
4 Every Country respects it
5 you can pass it on quietly
If you have any wealth amassed, #5 will become the ONLY reason to hold PMs! The government drops the definition of 'wealthy' on an annual basis. "here's the safe combination" is as quiet as any transfer gets!
Now this "guest post" is priceless.
Fifth hpothesis: you have absolutely no clue since you effectively layed out every possible scenario that could possibly exist.
sixth hypothesis: you have little or no reading comprehension skills, otherwise you would have read and understood this:
"The fourth hypothesis, and the one I prefer, is the beginning of the mania phase described by the bubble model below."
I believe that global deflation and the unraveling disaster of the Euro will send the dollar higher. NOT because it should, but because, whether people like it or not, the dollar (not gold) is the reserve currency of planet Earth. For now.
All the money that is coming into US bonds will accellerate in 2015. Russians and Chinese and Euro citizens will not be buying gold with their currencies, but dollars. This will cause a huge bubble in the dollar and send gold down (in dollars) even as it goes up againts other currencies like the Euro, Yen and Ruble. This has already been happening the last 12 months! It will just bigger and bigger.
Then, when the global slowdown really hits the USA, perhaps in 6-12 months, then the dollar starts to sink and gold takes off. I could see gold dropping to 1000-1100, easy, and maybe even under $999, at which point I would start loading up enormously.
"I could see gold dropping to 1000-1100, easy, and maybe even under $999, at which point I would start loading up enormously."
LOL...just because someone says "Gold is now worth $999" doesn't mean there'll be any bullion for you to load up on...
What a desperate gold pump.