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Dan Loeb Is Scared Of "The Haunted House Market"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Excerpted from Dan Loeb's Third Point letter to investors,

2015 has been marked by increasing volatility, prompting a banker friend (hat tip to Jimmy L.) to characterize this as a “haunted house market” where a new scary event lurks around each corner.

 

Out of this year’s 25 trading days, 22 have had intra-day moves in the market of more than 1%.

Haunted house scares so far this year have included:

1) signs of lower growth across the globe despite falling oil prices;

 

2) the depegging of the Swiss Franc, which caused an overnight 15% move;

 

3) declining currencies from Japan to Europe putting pressure on US companies’ earnings and competitive position;

 

4) a disconnect between when the Fed expects to raise rates and what the market is forecasting;

 

5) the rise of populism and the anti-austerity left in Europe which has underscored how fragile the “union” of this fragmented continent is today;

 

6) Russian incursions into the Ukraine;

 

7) chaos in the Middle East;

 

8) a surprising lack of leadership on the international stage by the United States and an apparent unwillingness to take decisive action to promote democracy abroad; and

 

9) a seeming decline in government respect for rule of law, shown by numerous executive actions, confiscations of property, and use of various departments —ranging from the IRS to the Treasury — to intimidate citizens and interfere with legal commerce.

We have also lowered our gross and net exposures this year.

While we obviously believe our top positions will be worth more in the long run, we expect a fair amount of volatility in the interim. Avoiding dramatic downside in individual names and sizeable losses during inevitable sell-offs will be key to succeeding in this market and navigating successfully through the haunted hallways of 2015.

 

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Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:18 | 5764649 wendigo
wendigo's picture

I'm sure there's a small but thriving market for houses perceived to be haunted. Probably they can skim some dollars off tourists.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:33 | 5764670 813kml
813kml's picture

Those are reserved as corporate housing for problem banksters.

Things that get bumped off in the night...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 08:38 | 5765613 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

   
 … things that “do bumps”  in the night —

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 09:52 | 5765866 prefan4200
prefan4200's picture

@wendigo - "small but thriving market"?  Actually there's quite a large "haunted house" market in the US, given the number of vacant unoccupied houses that are on sale or in foreclosure, and not moving.  That's actually what I thought this article would be about when I clicked on it.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:24 | 5764677 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

hello even the first grade knows this market dislocation needs not correction by the old school definition but crash about 10k points and crash soon to have any balance at all

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:25 | 5764684 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Housing prices corrected in 2008-2009.  But not nearly enough.  It's not over yet.  Delayed by the Fed, but not over.

 

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:26 | 5764695 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Wait, shouldn't the market Climb a Wall of Worry then?

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:02 | 5764812 Bangalore Torpedo
Bangalore Torpedo's picture

The market is too busy climbing a pole of decadence...give it a while.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 03:38 | 5765350 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Yup, the last time vol was this high for this long we made a solid bottom and the market rallied for several years straight up, never again getting remotely close to those lows and basically doubling, that's not even adding in dividends. 

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:31 | 5764714 stvitus
stvitus's picture

1) signs of lower growth across the globe despite falling oil prices;

I realize that this is a controversial matter, that there are geo-political strategic factors beyond market forces in play (producers fighting for market share despite potential losses, economic warfare), etc. But I read this point and can't help but think about the fact that there is a demand-related dimension to falling oil prices. I'm not sure the low growth isn't part of the fall in prices, is what I'm getting at. 

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:31 | 5764720 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Scumbag moneychanger.

 

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:40 | 5764757 Armed Resistance
Armed Resistance's picture

Russian incursions into Ukraine? How about a satellite image?

The lack of US leadership is SURPRISING? Since when? It's been this way since the globalists merged the political spectrum into a one-party system.

A SEEMING decline in government and rule of law? I guess if you are getting droned or having your door kicked in it may just seem like a decline...

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:01 | 5764806 Bangalore Torpedo
Bangalore Torpedo's picture

So make up your mind.  On the one hand, US-Ukraine intervention (however fictional) is regarded as PURE EVIL as we send NAZI INFILTRATORS into their country.

And now here you are wanting satellite porno from 50,000.  Friggen please!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 04:11 | 5765383 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

had to laugh! is this nutter getting senile?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 07:15 | 5765477 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

What lack of leadership? Susan Rice is on top of the GWOT, riding it every day.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 08:29 | 5765589 655321
655321's picture

Down vote for using bullshit evasive terms like "globalist". Lay off AJ, Celente, et el.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 22:46 | 5764775 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Funny that he left off the recent daily trading ranges of Oil, more like a small cap stock...

 

 

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:10 | 5764833 Bangalore Torpedo
Bangalore Torpedo's picture

So dear readers, do you see those short up and down perturbations at the far right of the chart?  You call it volatility, but we in the old school call it "the short strokes."  Yes indeed, that few more seconds of hydraulic motion until one reaches masturbatory bliss.  Yep, the short strokes.  And then what comes next is the culmination of pudenda flagellant bliss!  One big crescendo, until it all cums collapsing into one big sweaty pile of used up flacidity.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:19 | 5764861 Thirtyseven
Thirtyseven's picture

So housing gonna crash or not?

Just found a house with 3 entrances, 3 kitchens, 3 laundries.  Worth it? 

My goal in life is to become a slumlord.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:37 | 5764918 Stained Class
Stained Class's picture

2062 on S&P has been crossed 3 times, then reversed below 3 times....all Thursday-Friday sequences, 2 weeks apart...check it out.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 00:26 | 5765044 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Like a fucking heartbeat of the beast.

Mon, 02/09/2015 - 23:41 | 5764921 RealityColin
RealityColin's picture

Gee, he doesn't seem to mind the "decline in government respect for the rule of law" that lets Jamie Dimon buy his way out of criminal prosecution after rampant, economy-crushing fraud for pennies on the dollar -- and presumably the "decisive action to promote democracy abroad" he's disappointed not to see would be military firepower to bolster the State Department-orchestrated coup against the elected leader of the Ukraine (for resisting the EU).

Boy, neocons love that yoga...

 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 06:56 | 5765465 Cripkuwy
Cripkuwy's picture

"...an apparent unwillingness to take decisive action to promote democracy abroad;" True, our 'Nobel Peace Prize' winner could've used a bit more of those cheap credit (taxpayer) fueled, malinvested, depleted uranium shells to promote moar 'American style' freedom and democracy abroad. Every democracy promotion campaign has been highly successful so far and people abroad are so much better of now, since moar democracy is moar good, right??

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 10:31 | 5766033 Vooter
Vooter's picture

"...an apparent unwillingness to take decisive action to promote democracy abroad..."

What kind of complete, utterly gullible liar or asshole do you have to be to write something so fucking stupid?

 

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