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Greece is Playing to Lose
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Follow Zerohedge in Real-Time on FinancialJuice HEADLINES |
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Obama to seek authority to use force against Islamic State US mulls offering 'defensive lethal assistance' to Ukraine Greece locked in talks with EU as Tsipras demands new debt deal Greek Off'l: Restructuring debts, reducing primary surpluses, dealing with bad loans are 'red lines' EU warns Greece: Don't assume Eurozone will accept your demands German FinMin Schaeuble: Greece Will Need New Funding Fed's Plosser: Fed does not fully understand low US yields Fed's Plosser: There's little risk of deflation in US US employment trends index (Jan 15): 127.86 (prev revd to 127.7) NY Fed survey sees stable consumer inflation expectations G-20 Draft Communique: ECB decision will support Eurozone recovery US Tsy Sec Lew: Strong dollar to be topic at G-20 meeting PBOC may name Zhang Xiaohui as Assnt Gov --SINA BoJ's Kuroda: Weaker oil prices a plus for global economy SNB's Jordan: SNB prepared to intervene in FX CA Canadian housing starts (Jan 15): 187.3k (est 178.0k) Opec predicts rising demand for its oil Oil prices rise after Opec cuts US supply forecast This briefing was sent at 20:00 GMT on 9 Feb 2015 |
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COMMENTARY |
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Greece is Playing to Lose |
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The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal. What makes such a deal seem impossible is not the principled opposition of the two governments – Greece has demanded a debt reduction, while Germany has insisted that not a euro of debt can be written off – but something more fundamental: while Greece is obviously the weaker party in this conflict, it has far more at stake. Game theory suggests that some of the most unpredictable conflicts are between a weak, but determined, combatant and a strong opponent with much less commitment. In these scenarios, the most stable outcome tends to be a draw in which both sides are partly satisfied. (Project Syndicate) |
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Greece's debt-reduction offensive: Not for turning |
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LAST week was the week of the new Greek government's "charm offensive", a whirlwind diplomatic tour of Europe to win allies for its efforts to gain a cut in the country's debt burden and undo the onerous terms of its bail-out programme. In the end, the tour involved more offense than charm. Alexis Tsipras (pictured), the firebrand prime minister, found little sympathy on his visit to Brussels, while Yanis Varoufakis, his unorthodox finance minister, was rebuffed politely in a long string of European capitals (and rather impolitely in Berlin). Among European Union officials, the hope took hold that this show of unity would persuade Mr Tsipras to back off and accept an extension of the bail-out programme, if only temporarily, to avoid the increasingly worrisome possibility that Greece could soon run out of money to pay its debts. The moment for such a climb-down would have been Mr Tsipras's first policy speech to the Greek parliament on Sunday. (Economist) |
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Investors turn sharply more bullish on Eurozone |
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A closely watched investor sentiment index for the eurozone has raced up to its highest since May 2014, after the European Central Bank unveiled its €60bn a month asset purchasing programme. The Sentix composite index for February has a composite reading of 12.5 points, having been below zero for much of the last year. Last month, the index read just 0.9. Meanwhile, the expectations component of the index hit a nine-year high. (FT) |
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US Tsy Sec Lew & UK FinMin Osborne: Essential Elements to a G-20 Growth Plan |
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Over the past few years, our two governments have worked to fuel economic growth, create jobs and improve living standards. Our economies are now growing solidly. However, finance ministers and central-bank governors from the G-20 nations gather on Monday in Istanbul against a backdrop of challenges. Global growth is forecast to slow. Deflationary risks are evident in some regions. There is a shortfall in demand. And we face rising geopolitical risks from Ukraine and the Middle East that require coordinated action. Our message at the G-20 is this: Governments must use the full set of tools they have at their disposal to support their economies and realize the collective G-20 objective of strong, sustainable and balanced global growth. (WSJ) |
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The Latest Economic Conspiracy Theory |
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Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money.In December, I wrote:Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps that's overstating it; to be more precise, it is about the conspiracy-theorist combination of bias, innumeracy and laziness, with a pinch of arrogance thrown in for good measure.I am talking about the manifold ways various economic reports get misinterpreted, sometimes in a willful and ignorant manner.That column discussed some of the sillier theories from within the darker corners of the Internet. Admittedly, these weren’t from influential people or important media outlets; it was the usual collection of oddballs in tinfoil hats. (Bloomberg View) |
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DATA |
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US employment trends index (Jan 15): 127.86 (prev revd to 127.7) |
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GREEK STAND-OFF |
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Greece's leaders stun Europe with escalating defiance Tsipras optimistic of eurozone deal after meeting Austria's Faymann Greece may ask Eurogroup for bridge programme until August Greek finMin: Euro will collapse if Greece exits Greek FinMin Off'l: Greece to propose debt reduction via debt swap Greek FinMin Off'l: We Want New Programme After Bridge Deal To Be Implemented Starting Sept 1 Greek FinMin Off'l: Greece aims to reduce target for primary budget surplus to 1.5% of GDP German FinMin: Greece Will Need New Funding Greek three-year bond yield highest since 2012 Italy Padoan: Greek bridging loan may be discussed at Eurogroup meeting EU warns Greece: Don't assume Eurozone will accept your demands Germany's Fuchs: There is no way out for Greece UK planning for possible Greece exit from the eurozone Moody's downgrades 5 Greek banks: ratings on review for further downgrade |
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GEOPOLITICS |
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Obama: Sending Ukraine lethal defensive weapons is an option Obama examining options if Ukraine diplomacy fails Obama: Russian isolation will only worsen if it continues aggression Obama to ask Congress for authority to use force against Islamic State by Weds --Congressional aides Merkel: Russia must observe territorial integrity |
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GOVERNMENTS/CENTRAL BANKS |
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G-20 Draft Communique: ECB decision will support Eurozone recovery US Tsy Sec Lew: Strong dollar to be topic at G-20 meeting Fed's Plosser: Fed does not fully understand low US yields Fed's Plosser: There's little risk of deflation in US PBOC may name Zhang Xiaohui as Assnt Gov --SINA BoJ's Kuroda: Weaker oil prices a plus for global economy SNB's Jordan: SNB Has Room for Further Deposit Rate Cut SNB's Jordan: SNB prepared to intervene in FX BoE's Carney Applauds ECB Policy BoE's Carney urges 'big push' on bank rules, worries over reform fatigue |
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FIXED INCOME |
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Treasuries rise as Greece, Ukraine worries fester ECB Settles EUR42.9 Bln Of Covered-Bond Purchases As Of Feb. 6 ECB Settles EUR2.7 Bln Of ABS Purchases As Of Feb. 6 Microsoft selling $10.75B in debt, sees over $26B in orders Moody's assigns Aaa rating to Microsoft's proposed debt issuance Negative interest rates are hammering Germany's savings banks |
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EQUITIES |
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NY puts monitor at Deutsche to probe possible forex rigging HSBC Under Renewed Scrutiny Over Swiss Tax Avoidance Claims McDonald's January sales disappoints Qualcomm nears $1bn deal resolving China antitrust dispute Tahoe to Buy Rio Alto for $1.09 Billion to Add Peru Gold Twitter saw 40 percent more government data requests in past 6 months Randgold Resources hit by lower gold prices Loews Q4 Earnings Beat, Falls Y/Y on Low Investment Income Comcast-Time Warner Cable Deal Still Up in the Air a Year Later Manitowoc to Give Icahn Board Seats in Settlement Alibaba fights for smartphone users in China with $590m stake in Meizu |
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CURRENCIES, COMMODITIES, METALS |
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Opec predicts rising demand for its oil Oil prices rise after Opec cuts US supply forecast Yen rises on worries about Greece, Ukraine Euro stumbles to lowest since Jan 28 then rebounds Gold takes succour from geopolitical strains COMMENT: Citi: says oil could plunge to $20, and this might be tthe end of OPEC |
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EMERGING MARKETS |
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Ukrainian central bank cuts hryvnia official rate Turkish lira shudders as Erdogan pushes for cuts India estimates 7.4% GDP growth for year to March China's largest property developer reports January sales lower |
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A crisis invented by governments, for governments.
Put the currency inside a super-state, have the state guarantee bank loans, have the agents of one set of government employee/hangers-on negotiate with the agents of another set of government employees/hangers-on to see how each can keep the maximum number of employees/hangers-on from productive work.
Only result here will be more taxes, more oppression, more lies.
hard for me to believe that Greeces almost honorary membership in the EU would cause much of a ripple if it was severed. the solution is to add a country to replace the one that is dropped (just like the DOW 30) core Europe which should include the US, at least culturally is still the economic center. i guess the point is that after Grexit there will still be EUROs in Greece, just as there are dollars. should be get to parity on that then both currencies will be a lot more solid,and set up an eventual consolidation
Clicked and read all of those links, got started about 4 hours ago, here is my breakdown.....
I enjoyed the comedy section,
"Over the past few years, our two governments have worked to fuel economic growth, create jobs and improve living standards. Our economies are now growing solidly."
Greece faces a much more dangerous situation. The Iceland solution would work if they can avoid war, blockade or a military coup organized by desperate banksters.
A deal with Germany? Not on the face of things, but in Germany too the patriotic capitalists are chafing against the shackles of a dying Empire. And against remaining an occupied country 70 years after the War. Hints of this in the secret, private Merkel-Hollande-Putin meeting in the Kremlin. (Maybe the first time Merkel has felt free to speak freely with Hollande too!)
This is more complicated than reaching out to a patriotic alliance in Portugal, Spain or Russia though, since the German capitlaiists dream of having their own empire, and most Greeks have no interest in being part of that!
even The Guarding said...use the ICELAND Model
Top Economists: Iceland Did It Right ... And Everyone Else Is ... http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/06/iceland-financial-recovery-banking-collapse Iceland rises from the ashes of banking collapseThe previous government had twice negotiated terms under which Iceland would repay the UK and the Netherlands, with interest, for the cost of bailing out Icesave savers. It was made plain to ministers at the time that continued IMF support depended on such a deal.
But both proposals, despite being passed by the Icelandic parliament, were overwhelmingly defeated in public referenda thanks in part Gunnlaugsson. Popular opinion in Iceland had railed against what Gunnlaugsson grass roots campaign group InDefence portrayed as bullying forces from overseas, set on extracting reparations from Reykjavik akin to those sought from Germany in the Treaty of Versailles.
InDefence attacked Britain in particular, accusing Gordon Brown's government of deliberately damaging Iceland's standing in international markets in 2008 by using anti-terrorism laws to freeze the UK assets of Landsbanki. The bank, together with Iceland's finance ministry, was even placed on a UK list of financially sanctioned regimes alongside North Korea and al-Qaida.
As time went on, however, eminent economists began to reassess Iceland's reputation as a pariah state, contrasting it favourably with, among others, Ireland, which had been similarly laid low by an outsized banking sector and forced to seek emergency help from the IMF.
"Where everyone else bailed out the bankers and made the public pay the price, Iceland let the banks go bust and actually expanded its social safety net," noted Paul Krugman, admiringly. Iceland, he found, had demonstrated the "case for letting creditors of private banks gone wild eat the losses".
Nobel prize winner Joeseph Stilitz agreed. "What Iceland did was right. It would have been wrong to burden future generations with the mistakes of the financial system." For Financial Times economist Martin Wolf too, it was a triumph. "Iceland let the creditors of its banks hang. Ireland did not. Good for Iceland!" Return to riches
Icelanders are fast on their way back to becoming among the richest people in the world, just five years after experiencing one of the most dramatic financial meltdowns in history.
"If you say Iceland was a ship, it [the 2008 banking crash] caused a lot of damage to the bridge, but the body of the ship and the engine were still in good order," said Geir Haarde, prime minister at the time. He added: "Our growth prospects for the future are tremendous."
What garbage. Greece is already lost asshat.
Yes, LawsofPhysics, that is what I thought too.
What disturbs me more is that we are all stuck inside the same criminally insane systems based on enforcing financial frauds. Greece is merely one of the leading edges of being gobbled up and shit out by that system.
The article above was put together by a mainstream moron, who may well be still relatively comfortable within the established system (as I am too, at the present time.) However, from an intellectual point of view, that article grossly underestimates the degree to which all of human history has been one grand conspiracy of backing up lies with violence.
"If history shows anything, it is that there’s no better way to justify relations founded on violence, to make such relations seem moral, than by reframing them in the language of debt — above all, because it immediately makes it seem that it’s the victim who’s doing something wrong."
-- David Graeber,
DEBT: The First 5,000 Years
Greece adopted the Euro, then was allowed to have access to lots of "money" made out of nothing as debts, then that bubble popped ... The established systems of enforced financial frauds are attempting to force Greece to stay inside of that system. However, the new Greek finance minister has been stating the situation that Greece has ALREADY LOST, in the sense that he admits that he is "the finance minister of a bankrupt country!" ... The Greeks were already sucked into the machine of the combined money/murder systems, that have mangled their economy.
That social pyramids organized economies through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems is understandable as maximization of short-term benefits, which simultaneously maximized longer term costs. We are watching the great tilt of that great paradox shifting from the past where the privatization of profits was greater, to the future, where the socialization of the losses is greater.
The deeper problems are that it is practically impossible for civilization to develop better dynamic equilibria of its different systems of organized lies and robberies, because those who benefited the most in the short-term developed their ways to perceive the situation that they are the "good guys," to a fanatical degree, which makes better balancing in the longer term practically impossible, because of the layers of success based on frauds have been rationalized and justified to the hilt.
Human beings MUST operate as entropic pumps of energy flow. However, they have understood that in the most backward ways possible. Systems of lies backed by violence have been promoted as being totally the opposite to what they actually are. The people who were the best at doing that, and the most successful in taking advantage of the systems of social and environmental robberies and rapes, have been able to indulge in their own bullshit that they were the "good guys."
The levels of paradox present here are practically infinite. People who make "money" inside of the established systems have elaborate layers of bullshit that they tell themselves and others about what they were doing. Money is measurement backed by murder. Human beings MUST live as robbers. However, human history has selected for those who were the most successful at doing that to become the biggest bullies, whose bullshit social stories dominated civilization.
The article above is one of those kinds of repetitions of the biggest bullies' bullshit view of the world. People who make "money" do so inside of fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, which enable them to divorce themselves as much as possible from facing the death controls which back up the debt controls. Civilization has so specialized the division of labour that the vast majority of people can be successful by operating within a tiny slice of the overall social systems, and can be successful there by lying to themselves and everyone else about that.
A lot of the interpretation of the Greek situation is based on psychological projections, that are able to blame the Greeks, for them being caught up in the combined money/murder systems, as minor players on the periphery, that are being mangled by that runaway machine of organized lies and robberies, running out of control, that has run into relatively real walls of limits, and may next bounce off over a cliff whose bottom can not now be seen ...
The PROBLEM has been that military successes based on deceits, which enabled monetary successes based on frauds, has enabled the development of an economy in which "money" was made out of nothing as debts, in order to "pay" for strip-mining the planet's natural resources, which strip-mining is running into the limits of diminishing returns, due the planet being finite. Our fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems have driven us to high-grade ourselves to hell, building everything at an exponential rate in the most unsustainable ways possible.
Greece adopted the Euro, which then enabled their politicians, who were puppets of the banksters, to "borrow" lots of "money" made out of nothing to blow into bad investment bubbles which popped, leaving misery behind for the majority of Greeks. The same fates await everyone else. However, for those who are more towards the core and towards the top of the social pyramid systems, they can continue to enjoy operating within the established systems of organized lies operating robberies, making "money" inside of fundamental fraudulent financial accounting systems, while simultaneously being able to indulge in bathing in all the well-established and entrenched bullshit about how they are the "good guys."
The article above struck me as just another mainstream moron doing that kind of psychological projection out towards others, in ways which ironically apply just as much to themselves. ... Since those kind of professional liars and immaculate hypocrites are successfully making "money" inside of the established systems, there are no practically possible ways to prevent civilization from continuing to grow at an exponential rate, in the most unsustainable possible ways. Indeed, whatever MIGHT have been more sustainable is practically impossible to imagine. It is almost impossible to imagine whatever Greece would be like IF it were to adapt to having a sustainable economy, instead of one that was blown up by injections of Euros made out of nothing as debts, which funds were mostly squandered, and then, that economic bubble popped, which splattered across the lives of the majority of Greeks as the various forms of "austerity."
The whole world is like that! We have already lost. We have already high-graded ourselves to hell. Our civilization was always controlled by systems of backing up lies with violence, which became the current systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, in the form of a fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting system, that makes "money" out of nothing as debts, which "money" can disappear back to nothing when those debts disappear, which is blatantly violation of the basic laws of physics, EXCEPT when seen as an ENFORCED FRAUD.
Greece is merely one of the leading edges of the globalized systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS driving their consequences, which are the result of attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance towards everything which is outside of the fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. There is the nominal wealth which flows from being able to indulge in making "money" out of nothing (which actually is making money as measurements backed by murders) without having to face any of the facts regarding the realities of the longer term consequences from doing that.
The vast majority of "financial advisers" have adapted to become "successful" within that frame of reference, to enable themselves and their clients to operate within the established combined money/murder systems, in ways which are almost totally based on them believing in a bullshit world view, that enables them to think that they are somehow the "good guys." Of course, the problematic paradoxes are far more profound, since everyone MUST live through some systems of organized lies operating robberies, since everyone MUST live as entropic pumps of energy flows. However, developing better dynamic equilibria between those systems has become politically impossible, due to the degree that the most socially successful people who have been doing that are the most fanatical believers in the State Religion monetary system, who tend to be able to not want to perceive that the State Religion national security system that backs that up is just as deceitful as the monetary system is fraudulent.
Hence, the article above is the typical kind of smug rationalizations of the mainstream morons who are able to operate their own systems of lies and robberies, without themselves perceiving those facts, while they can project the blame onto others, who are the "bad guys." The degree to which the self-deluded "good guys" are fanatical believers in the State Religion monetary systems makes developing any better overall dynamic equilibria politically impossible. Religious fanatics tend to not have enough sense of humour to be able to perceive their own ironies, enough to get out of their own boxes.
There is no way to imagine what Greece would look like, IF the world was not being controlled by enforced frauds, and deceits backed by destruction. Those who indulge in thinking that they are "productive" and are making "productive investments" from which they deserve to make a "profit," tend to deliberately ignore that the entire system that they operate within is based on the production of destruction controlling production. Mainstream moron financial advisers deliberately ignore, as much as possible that they are making "money" inside of fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. Their smug self-righteousness is one of the main reasons why it is practically impossible to develop better dynamic equilibria. Obviously, Greece has become badly unbalanced. However, everywhere else is too. Overall, it is almost impossible to imagine how UNBALANCED the established systems of globalized electronic monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs has become. The sheer magnitude of that makes imagining the future in any coherent ways practically impossible.
The corrections to the Greek problems can NOT be within any return to exponential growth, based on still strip-mining the planet's natural resources ... There is NOWHERE left where that is actually possible anymore. Rather, we need to develop new systems dynamic equilibria. However, those imperatives have as their major obstacles all the fanatical believers in the dominate State Religion monetary systems, promoted by those who were "successfully" making "money" in fundamentally fraudulent ways, which they nevertheless were able to rationalize were due to them being the "good guys."
Actually, there are NO "good guys," only different kinds of "bad guys." However, the degree to which some of those "bad guys" believe that they are "good guys" makes developing any better balancing practically impossible. The mainstream morons who are the most fanatical about the State Religion monetary systems are almost impossible to reason with. The paradoxes of success based on enforced frauds continue to get bigger and BIGGER ... Most financial advisers are the equivalent of religious fanatics, although, of course, they do not see that, but rather believe that they are rational.
From a sublime point of view, with a sublime, macabre sense of humour, the degree to which people are able to believe in bullshit is amusing. However, as the Greek example shows, believing in the banksters' bullshit has very bad longer term consequences. Since the banksters' bullshit dominates the whole world, the whole world is headed towards recapitulating the problems that Greece now faces. We continue to wait and watch, as the tragic trajectory of successfully enforcing frauds devolves ... Nobody can possibly know for sure what happens next!
Hello! De La Rue. Those new Deutsche Marks we had printed a couple of years ago, we would like them delivered starting next week to the Bundesbank. Thank you.
Greece and the rest of the PIGS are host to the German parasites. They all need their own currencies. But letting them print their own currency would be like letting California, San Francisco and Silicon Valley print their own currency. The filthy rich parasites will never let that happen. We work for them. They own us. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uywAdnh-cYw
Wheres the ZERO on the ratings scale? Thats what this pivotfarm deserves. What a fucking waste of time to read his bullshit. Maybe he had better take his tinfoil hat off when he writes.