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How Fast Would Contagion Spread If Greece Exits The Eurozone
Perhaps the most curious aspect of this, third, Greece ""exit crisis, is just how completely unnoticed it has gone by the capital "markets", or rather non-Greek capital markets. Which, considering the changed dynamics of the negotiations, was to be expected. As explained again earlier, this time around it is imperative on the central planning regime to keep stocks and bonds as stable as possible heading into tomorrow's negotiations with Greece, because should global risk not bat an eyelid, it will mean that Greek leverage is non-existent as the "market" (which courtesy of central banks no longer really exists) does not anticipate any contagion, and is why the S&P has actually been surging in the past week.
There are two problems with this, as UBS laid out yesterday: 1) (lack of) risk no longer reflecting reality doesn't make sense and 2) "Breaking the deadlock" in negotiations voluntarily may not be easy, "hence, outside pressure—in the form of financial and market dislocations—seems necessary to focus minds."
However, as we noted yesterday, point 2 is only relevant for Europe: Syriza, and largely Greece, no longer cares what the stock market does: only the Eurozone does (and as long as the ECB is there to backstop it in any case, the European "market" isn't going anywhere). If anything, the only concern of the Greeks is what happens to bank deposits, although by this point anyone who would have pulled their money from the bank already has.
Which means that once again, thanks to central bank intervention, the discounting process is broken, and has been skewed to reach a specific political outcome. However, in the worst case scenario - one in which Greece does exit the Eurozone - it will simply mean that the moment of reality has been at best postponed. And the moment when the can kicking ends and reality can no longer be avoided is the millisecond after Greece announces it has quit the Eurozone.
What happens then is why UBS has dedicated an entire section to the contagion risk which is now being thoroughly masked by central bank intervention, and which will only emerge, and with a vengeance, if the worst case does indeed transpire. Needless to say, when it emerges it will be fast.
Here is how UBS believes a Greek Eurozone contagion will play out:
The contagion risk of a euro exit reflects the fact that there is a meaningful risk that other countries would join Greece in leaving the euro. The euro is patently not an optimal currency union at the moment, which gives economic momentum to the idea of a broader fragmentation.
Whether other countries leave the euro is contingent on two questions with binary outcomes:
- Do bank depositors think that their country could leave the euro?
- Does the euro area guarantee the integrity of the banking system?
A "double lock" is required to prevent contagion. An assurance that bank deposits are guaranteed by the ECB is completely worthless if the general public believe that the country is going to leave the Euro. If one believes that one's country may leave the euro, then what the ECB does or does not do will no longer apply within one's country, and so it is rational to withdraw one's money sooner rather than later. The parallel here is to the Czech and Slovak monetary union break-up in 1993; the governments both assured the public that the monetary union would stay and their savings were safe, but the public did not regard these statements as credible and so removed their savings from banks. The process became self-fulfilling as the extent of deposit flight contributed to the governments being forced to break their promises and end the monetary union.
If on the other hand, the authorities (in this case the euro area governments and the ECB) demonstrate so strong a commitment to the integrity of the remainder of the euro that they convince depositors that their money is safe, then there is no motivation to withdraw money from the banking system of a country as the assertion that depositors will be protected has validity. The parallel here is the US monetary union fragmentation and reforming between 1932 and 1933. The statements of the Federal government were not believed (and the monetary union fragmented) until what has been referred to as the "one, two punch" of a closing of the entire banking system and a "fireside chat" from the newly inaugurated President Roosevelt. The scale of the emergency banking legislation was seen as sufficient to guarantee the integrity of the system.
It is very difficult for governments to control the progress of a monetary union break-up because the example of one country exiting will create a precedent in the eyes of other members of the monetary union. The transmission channel is not government bonds, nor equities, not currency markets, but banks. In the event of a Greek exit from the euro, the loss in the real value of Greek bank deposits would encourage bank depositors in other countries to withdraw their funds. This is not a question of bank solvency in these other countries – just as deposit withdrawal from Scottish banks ahead of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was presumably not motivated by questions of solvency. Rather the motive is the perception of risk around what currency one will receive in exchange for one's deposit in the future, and what that currency will buy relative to what it can buy today.
The process can be very rapid indeed.
In its 1933 report the US Federal Reserve commented, with commendable understatement, that at the start of the year "In addition to currency hoarding, there were substantial transfers of deposit accounts from banks in which depositors had lost confidence to other institutions, involving in many cases the shift of funds from one section of the country to another."
Nevada was the first state to declare a bank holiday on 31 October 1932. The contagion was initially quite slow, but then accelerated – on 4 February 1933 Louisiana joined in, and then on 14 February Michigan declared a four-day holiday and then extended it. Michigan's actions are regarded as the tipping point for contagion. Less than a fortnight later a bank holiday was declared in Maryland. On 1 March 1933 four states declared holidays, another six declared on 2 March, another seven on 3 March, and five (including New York) on 4 March 1933. On 6 March 1933 the national banking system was closed by Presidential order.
In the case of the euro area it seems unlikely that the current, incomplete banking union and non-existent fiscal union would be sufficient to prevent the contagion of bank runs spreading to other countries in the wake of a Greek exit from the euro. The starting point is that other countries are at risk of departure in response to a Greek exit. If the political status quo is maintained, it has to be thought likely, maybe probable, that Greece will not be alone in exiting the euro. It would be irrational for depositors to gamble their life savings if they believe that there is even a 5% chance that their country could leave the Euro. A 5% chance of a 60% loss in the value of one's savings (assuming a Greek parallel) would make the effort of withdrawing or transferring funds worthwhile. As with the deposit withdrawal within Greece, once the first spark of fear has been ignited the conflagration of contagion is likely to spread very rapidly.
The issue is whether, subsequent to those strains emerging, new policy initiatives from the euro area would be sufficient to change perceptions around the credibility of the political will to defend the integrity of the euro. Unlimited support from the ECB to euro area banks, large-scale debt monetisation and euro area fiscal confederation would be the sort of policies that could change the perception of credibility. All, of course, come at a cost. One metric to measure the success of such policies might be analysis of the contagion not of bond or other financial markets, but of household sight deposits at banks. The correlation of the change in Greek deposits with the changes in sight deposits in some other peripheral countries has also been high in the past (notably in the wake of 2008 and in the wake of the first wave of concerns about membership of the euro area). While the correlations of deposit change are generally quite low, they are rising. Correlation is not causation, and there are many other factors (including overall economic performance) that can encourage such a correlation, but this fact does rather emphasise the risks.
The rise of European anti-establishment political parties in recent years has, perhaps, increased the risk of a more widespread contagion to other financial systems. Deference to authority, and particularly to authority within Europe, has diminished. Official assurances of the "irrevocable" monetary union (except for Greece) would likely carry less weight. The fact that anti-establishment parties have (to generalise) tended to draw support from lower skilled, older voters may further compound the problem. This economic demographic is less able to adjust their savings so as to hedge break-up risk (making physical cash the main option), and as an older age cohort they are more likely to have savings that are vulnerable.
This then adds an entirely unpredictable element to the Euro area cost of a Greek exit from the euro. The direct costs can be calculated, and an intelligent approximation of the costs of increased risk can be factored in. However, if the break-up of the union expands, the direct costs expand exponentially (because the costs of the Target 2 system increase, and the costs of recapitalising for the remaining members increase, and the costs of financial system exposure increase). The transmission of fear may not be to the most obvious of candidates of course – this is not a question of solvency or of economics. If a Greek exit from the euro leads to other countries exiting, it will be the lack of plausibility of policy makers that generates the collapse.
* * *
Which is precisely why Syriza is still, in this late 11th hour, maintaining its uncompromising position in hopes that Europe finally grasps that the downside risk from a Grexit is far, far greater than the downside from appearing weak and caving to one peripheral nation. It remains to be seen if Europe agrees with this, although following today's seesaw rumor-induced action, it appears that the standoff may well end without any agreement.
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spread like herpes in a whore house
Good. I have less than 10€ in my account -- the rest in cash.
I am ready for the fire sale of our lives on everything not nailed down.
(and still most stuff that is nailed down too)
"I have less than 10€ to my name." - Yellen
I hate to break it to zerohedgers, but the reality is Greece simply cannot leave the Eurozone. European Banks have lent vast sums of money to Greece, and it is simply not fair on these banks to allow Greece to leave. The health of the entire global economy depends on these banks having healthy balance sheets.
If there’s one thing we did right in 2007 – it was to bail out our most valuable corporations. Had we let those companies go under, we would be paying a severe economic price right now, but thankfully our congress and Federal Reserve were smart enough to realize this. Now let’s not let Europe make the mistake that we didn’t – we have to make sure that European Banks are save no matter what, as the health of the world economy depends on it.
http://accredited-times.com/2015/02/09/breaking-the-cycle-of-poverty-2/c...
How Fast Would Contagion Spread If Greece Exits The Eurozone?
Like measles at Disneyland...
MDB: Just bend over and grab onto you ankles for while...
It took less than a day in 2008 to bring the $12 trillion US money market to it's knees.
Wow look at Greece!!! Greece, Greece, Greece...
Lazard says for Greece to reduce its debt obligations by 50%, everyone else says the Eurozone will blow up. On and on it goes.
Greece is a mere side-show for the masses as is the DSK show trial:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2871836-lbma-data-points-to-gold-and-silver-default-video
http://www.safehaven.com/article/36534/lbma-data-points-to-gold-and-silver-default
http://www.eutimes.net/2011/05/russia-says-imf-chief-jailed-for-discovering-all-us-gold-is-gone/
If Turkey attacked Syria from the rear, would Greece help?
Anyone else notice Ghordo disappeared?
His pager went off and got called in to fix the Euro Zone. Its turned into a full time job lately. Even for a Socialist.
I wonder if he has been muzzled, or is some talking points advisor in Brussels who is in the FIGHT OF HIS LIFE to come up with positive spin for the inevitable.
"lower skilled, older voters" demo better watch out !
They will be fodder to be excommunicated from the Union according to this article...so sacrifice these two groups and keep the establishment ?
Wow !
How long before I can do Europe on $20/day?
PIIGS -- sooner than you think.
if a country is like a man it will go broke a little at a time and then all at once.
ISDA will say Greece hasn't left the Eurozone because Greece is still physically located on the continent of Europe.
Ergo, no default event has occurred. Its simple geography when you really think about it.
.
Follow-up...
"lower skilled, older voters" demo better watch out !
They will be fodder to be excommunicated from the Union according to this article...so sacrifice these two groups and keep the establishment ?
I read this next a few ways: they are more vulnerable, they are more at risk, ....and if we kick them out of the Union they will have financed their retirement already so its "OK" to kick them out....done.
"and as an older age cohort they are more likely to have savings that are vulnerable."
Wow ! MAYBE IF WE RETIRE EARLY THEY CAN "MAKE IT WORTH" GETTING KICKED OUT OF UNION...LIKE FREE FOOD AND EURORAIL FOR (REMAINDER OF) LIFE ? What if ? heh.
Which bit of Europe?
ECB will buy all the Greek bonds from all the non-Greek banks at par and never mark to market.
Those Damn Greeks are jumping the gun on QE Euro-style.
Commercial banks are still holding a ton of Greek crap.
"We must save the banks. If one goes, they all go."
"Priced in."
Move along.
Actually commercial banks hold almost no "greek crap".
This is what zerohedge does to your brain.
You think you are informed, but you know virtually nothing about anything.
(Not that MSM is any better)
get the fuck out then.
Wall Street -> Yea right, then Italy and Portugal jump.That is checkers thinking. The game is chess, keep Greece you keep the others less costly, and you keep your kings and queens per se.
This move is BRICS vs EU, Greece and Ukraine are the moves. Turkey is the wild card element.
... ask the fudgepacker in chief.... the thing knows all about azz burgers....
OB will.
The bankers will never risk the collapse of their parastic empire so at the end of the day they will cut a deal for Greece that will become the template for the rest of the EU.
Once the deal is done it will be full speed ahead on completing the political integration of Europe.
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave.
It's like the budget limit standoff. We all know the status quo will prevail in one form or another.
moar money for agreeing to disagree is very very attractive. hey, folks, the shit train keeps rolling on down the euro tracks. these are politicians/academiacs that are at the negotiating table. safe to say they have never ever worked a real job. community organizers/parasites. keep your hope low and expect same old shit...
Oh the banksters want a deal more than Greece does. They know that Greece will use more money and ask for more loans.
The banksters only concerns are who is going to pay them again. They got the increased interest rates for the higher risk loans and now taxpayers will pay them 100% principal back.
What is interest for again?
The barn is burning, the horses want out, and the rancher is nailing the doors shut.
In all fairness there was a lead up
How fast? Like the number of fried fruit bat vendors on the streets of Lagos after the end of each Ebola pandemic
Yes MDB, bend over and grab those ankles long enough and someone will come and drive you around the block. The little people have nothing right now and have been going backwards for 6 years....time for some real change.
Surely Greece was Vacinated by Goldman Sachs.
The Eurozone is autistic
If you don't watch out you are going to get yourself renditioned to Gitmo and end up writing for Obama's teleprompter.
Youre an idiot.
Just as bravery and insanity are close cousins so are genius and idiocy. (See: Krugman)
One mans Nobel Peace Prize winner is often another mans War Criminal...
One day there will be a 3-D Hedge and in the museum, you will find burried under all the WB7 stuff, artifacts from...
The "Legend" MDB.
Fair? Allow? And fyi, the world economyis gefuckt - haven't you been seeing what's been going on? How did you find your way here?
He found his way here long before you, Grasshopper....
I don't know which is funnier, MDB's deadpan posts, or the indignant replies they elicit.
"and it is simply not fair on these banks to allow Greece to leave"
"The health of the entire global economy depends on these banks having healthy balance sheets."
Fair... since when was it ever about Fairness?
With the exception of a country here or there, "healthy balance sheets" simply do not exist.
Greece is out for themselves... The Euro has failed them already (through corruption/bad policy makes no difference). Their plan "B" is not worse than their current plan.
Grexit FTW
you forgot the /s
MDB did you forget the sarc tag or do you really believe that shit your espousing?
MDB writes STRICTLY SATIRE. I have not yet read anything which was to be taken at face value from either MDB or Liberal.
Do you know the difference between sarcasm and satire?
Satire...a way of using humor to show that someone or something is foolish, weak, bad, etc. : humor that shows the weaknesses or bad qualities of a person, government, society, etc.
Sarcasm...a sharp and often satirical or ironic utterance designed to cut or give pain
2 a : a mode of satirical wit depending for its effect on bitter, caustic, and often ironic language that is usually directed against an individualSarcasm is ususally PERSONAL whereas Satire is not.
MDB is a master at utilizing his dry satire and wit
.
Now that SOME people at Zerohedge express their wisdom and brilliance by using the word, sarcasm, properly, is just an example of decent sarcasm. It is to be taken personally by some of the people at Zerohedge...directed at those whom misuse the word. er...Like you?
However if I wanted to write a satirical litany...I can just point out that our skills at English and our understanding of the definition of word is most impressive.
SHUSH!!!!! You're wrecking the fun!
I disagree with you. I have been around for about just as long as MDB.
MDB post the same BS no matter what the situation. For MDB it is all bullish and the situation will never fail.
Thus it is not satire or sarcasm, MDB would be Cramer on TV, if he could. He really believes this shit.
Anyway, I leave MDB alone for the most part because he doesn't personally attack others. And we should all be free to express our opinion without being vitriol. The few I have gone after learned that leson and some are even gone (banished).
What does fair have to do with anything? Greece leaves, Greece tells creditors to pound salt. Absent a rolling army marching through Thessolinki to Athens through the Russian Army. Not much happens except Russia gets a warm water port and "Merika takes another neo-con foreign policy loss.
MDB - Ever hear of the mythical Phoenix? Sometimes death leads to rebirth and the sins of the old forgiven and forgotten. Greece has a total sovereign debt of a bit over 300 billion euro. A substantial sum, but managable. However, through credit default swaps the global effect of a default by Greece would likely be much larger. Frankly, I'm a fan of logical consequences - if you wrote CDS on Greece over the past 5 years or so, you were an idiot and idiots are quickly parted from their money. So yeah, a Greek default could bring the global financial system to its kness - but letting the system continue, with huge unemployment etc. is at least as debilitating. So, I'm all for a global financial crash even though I would likely end up a tad poorer. Perhaps I should say that again - I'm all for a global financial crash - the sooner the better.
Hey MDB, I missed you.
Good to see you back in good form.
hahaha riiiight...
Vast sums....
The FED printed more money in six months with QE3 than the entirety of the Greek debt.
Apple could do a half cash half stock purchase of Greece and still be the largest company in the S&P by market cap. Hell their stock would probably even go up more...
The US yearly deficit is more than the entire debt of Greece.
The last seven trading days or last month in the US did more notional value volume on the NYSE alone than the Greek debt.
Greece could entirely disappear tomorrow, all its people, all its landmass all its ability to pay back a penny of debt and it would have practically no material effect on anything. Its all about perception. Countries could pick up their refining capacity no problem and the packaged medicine is a joke. (those are their two main exports btw)
Knowing the Greeks the stuff that is nailed down will likely be on fire...
Or shoved up someone's ass. Long history of that over there
Isnt that the Olympics Bruceie Jenner participated in?...What?
..... bet the fudgepacker in chief and its pal reggie will sign up....
nail guns are sold out...
And you would know this how?
Spreads faster then an algo gone wild in the SPX futures markets...i mean casino
...or crabs in a White House
Ain't. Gonna. Happen. Syriza does not have the balls to default and "pull and Iceland".
Bank on it.
IF it were to happen, then the EUR would fall within 6-12 months, because the PIIGS would join. And the ONLY way that would happen, would be to save the supremacy of the USD as the GRC.
A LOT of other things would happen first though. E.g. Maidan 2 in Athens, and the toppling of Syriza.
IF (again a Big IF) Greece were to leave the Euro, it could also not afford to remain a NATO member. What do you think the odds are of that happening? Exactly Zero!
Keep buying depressed Greek assets and Greek islands and resorts, cause they still don't have 'The 300'.
How long before they pull your monthly state austerity check?
noben profile: 10 weeks. We can break a loaf of bread on his head,
Newbie. Heard both good and bad things about ZH.
Allergic to BS, cheap wine, bad food, and dumb, rude people.
Motto: "We will spill no wine before it's time."
if greece leaves the euro and nato maybe turkey and the usa can invade greece at the next border shootout.
Quicker than a two bit IMF whore dropping to their knees begging for a new loan contract.
One can only hope that California, New York, Maryland, and New Jersey pull out of the U.S. Four bankrupt states down, many to go.
Just like herpes in a whore, nobody knows how fast it is spreading until its too late. Just like herpes there is a way to protect yourself. Do not participate in their activities. Dont take on more debt. Pay off your loans quickly to minimize interest owed to the criminals (I mean bankers). Don't keep extra money in the banks. Use cash, not plastic. Store your wealth in silver. A good way to spread real money, instead of this contagion is by giving these candles (https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers?ref=hdr_shop_menu) with silver coins to your friends, family and coworkes! They will not only learn about silver, they will have a head start on their silver stacking!
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
186,000 miles per second...
First, sell the fear... then watch it infiltrate depositor action at the speed of light.
Or in the case of Cypress the wormhole that went back in time...
BUY GOLD!!!!!!!
NOW!!!!!
Well played, and no doubt right.
They say nothing moves faster than "scared money"...
Like Ebola
Only this one would be a real threat to Europe.
pods
Maybe there will be a combination of the two. That oughta start flames unstoppable by those arrogant leaders.
Miffed
Measles is the next fear tactics. CDC will issue shingles disease alert next.
this is all not important...greece, oil, ukraine. relax everyone, we have the VIX being banged on a minute basis, with the SPX going higher every time. it makes perfect sense, it may go on forever. the guys in charge discovered how to do it. nothing can go wrong.
^^^this. At this point nothing changes until essential goods and services, despite whatever the "official price" is, simply can no longer be delivered.
That has happened in countries already. Have things changed there?
LOP- West coast port shut down. I thought about you the whole time it's been going on. Not a DAMNED PERSON in the media paying it any attention. If we print a negative first quarter again for 2015 I can pretty much guarantee this will be proffered as an explanation, though.
I keep bringing it up on ZH and people walk past the comment like it's in parentheses or something.
I'm with ya, but you know in Socialist America, no one gives a shit about anything until the EBT and Debit cards are shut off!!
Add the weather to your thesis too, they snuck past last year with that excuse!!
Where having lots moar weather here in the north east this winter, it ought to be good for a couple more years of all time highs as long as the sheeple continue to allow them selves to be sheared and have the wool pulled over their eyes
I talk with my supply chaing/logistics guys daily (no not UPS). The LA port problems have been steadily increasing and unloading times are ratcheting up by days every day. This means ships are having to be diverted to other ports and even the East Coast, adding costs and more importantly time to the deliveries. Pretty soon, this could show up on shelves as alot of supply chains have been pinched down due to JIT.
It is going to be interesting to see what happens if/when the port shuts down due to a strike/walkout.
Madbraz sounds like you worked with Amway or Avon. You buy your product to make a couple of cents. Madbraz, did you get to drive around in a pink Cadillac?
Madbraz, not picking on you. Ask yourself why Libor index is no longer shown. VIX is another joke.
http://www.moneycafe.com/personal-finance/libor/
Federal Funds Rate
http://www.moneycafe.com/personal-finance/fed-funds-rate/
The good news, you can refinance at 3.09% APR. Look at 7 year treasury. LOL
.....and its gone!! That fast...
I really don't see how clearing all the BAD DEBT on the planet would be such a bad thing?
Fuck em. Time to find out what the real value of everyone's labor really is motherfuckers, bring it.
Banks cannot pay off their liabilties (deposits) in full by using mark to unicorn accounting for their assets. Banks are barely solvent using wink and a nod valuations.
Greece leaves, curtain is pulled back.
pods
Yes, so what? fuck em. They will be exposed as the fraud that they are and promptly executed. As it should be, if you can't contriubute something of real value, fuck off and die or evolve motherfucker.
As it should be.
Stop, you're making me giddy. :) Bankers executed?
I laugh when I hear those in ivory towers in Brussels talking down to the Greeks.
The Greeks have the button.
Let's see them push it and then we can find out who is "well capitalized."
pods
Well, ask a simple question, should "the button get pushed" as you say. Who's lifestyle would be affected more? The greeks or some stuffed fucking shirts in Brussels?
"The Greeks have the button."
What they have in their hands is the F-bomb.
If they choose to push the button complete destruction of the global financial system will commence as the aforementioned runs in the system will start in earnest and the sticky question of those $1 Quadrillion in derivative bets stop all banks from transacting with each other.
Because of neoliberal financial engineering > No banks = No economy
The job of the trioka is to try to convince Tsipras that he has no power while negotiating the minimum acceptable deal to keep Greece in.
They need Greece in.
Smart Hedgies will stock up on canned goods and pasta just in case...
ISDA deleted the word "quadrillion" from the lexicon as it was too scary. Funny, cause "100s of thousands of billions" I think sounds worse.
Agree, the first 6 months are totally out of control.
But once Silver and Gold (and other tangibles) get established, and real-estate and capital gets sorted out (by lead or other means), then its back to 1AD.
Except we'd start with a semi-cobbled semi-available infrastructure.
Agree, if it takes more than 5 years...its back to the stone age.
It is The Breakfast of Champions...the quicker the better.
If we can transcend the gap quickly we (those living now) might survive the journey.
The bankers control the guys with the guns so they will never let anyone use silver/gold for currency as long as they remain in control.
If they have to they will confiscate it while they do everything to establish the digital non-cash system that will solve all of their control problems.
For the global elite the problem has always been that they don't have enough control.
Same for the modern police state.
When I gets down to bartertown, I don't think people will give much of a fuck what TPTB are going to say not to do. It simply won't matter.
They will have lost. All those cops have to go home sometime where they are surrounded by thousands of armed citizens. I don't think the buddy system will help much.
Even with default, all the derivatives and QDS that so many think will implode, won't happen. TPTB will simply decree that it can't happen. Just like TARP, Govt Motors, Cry Motors, AIG, Cyprus, etc, forced bail ins will happen, existing finance laws will be ignored, and new "exception" laws will be created. When default contagion does happen, it will be pre-ordained winners and losers. All organized fear, tamped down by the police state... all a prelude to final asset confiscation "for the good of the people"... hello MyRA. Nothing short of war and revolution will stop the banking oligarchs.
So the criminals will be revealed as such?
Yes, IMO it is long past due. Fuck em, I call, show us the real value of your "labor" motherfuckers!!!!!!!!!!
Recall the fiat elite don't know how to do real work, or tie their own shoes.
The fiat elite will die off first just based observation of their 'needs' which will be lacking.
Unless they really have actual slave minions...
Going back to horsepower will be an amazing transition until things sort out.
Yea, curtain will be pulled back exposing Kim Kardashian's ass and the EBT will keep flowing.
That's what I'm talking about!
Let banksters and other parasitic pencil pushers starve for a change. They contribute NOTHING of value. If they can pick up a shovel and work 10 hours straight in rain and wind, they may have a fighting chance.
That really depends on whether you owe the debt or the debt is owed to you, doesn't it?
Like Obamas hope and change?
He clearly said "Rope and chains"
The translation from ebonics to english doesn't always come out right.
I've always said it was "Hoax and Chains".
'The Market' AKA Apple stock doesn't seem to care. In fact is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon.
If the Greeks get the boot or leave on their own, the dollar is going to strength right? Whenever I think these bankers are going to zig they zag and fuck everyone over.
nothing a few trillion Drachmas can't solve
BANK RUN! why wait? do it today
Professional investors, most of whom have never experienced a down cycle, seem to think there is no longer such a thing as a payment default. Can you blame them?
Today, only losers don't get bailed out by some government or central bank.
If and when Greek finally says "sorry we are really not paying", they will be in for a very very rude awakening.
Pandora's box on steroids.
85% of Greek bonds are held by the ECB. wheres the bank run again?
Youre an idiot.
Go enroll in Geithner Community College night skool and learn how to express your vapid brain chatter coherently.
In the meantime, steer clear of me moron.
Can't take anyone eexposing your childish nonsense.
He's still right.
Better go back to creating useless graphics.
You can join him. I'm sure you can get a scholarship in Schmuckonomics. Just be sure to include a photo of yourself.
Phrase to be used soon in Brussels:
"Can they really do that?"
Can they, will they.
It's the same question asked in every debt restructuring scenario.
Up until now, no one has had the balls or the mandate to stare them down.
Do Tsirpas and Varoufakis have got what it takes to really see this thing through to the end?
I don't know. I thought they might cave early and so far I am pleasantly surprised. They must be riding some very strong public opinion back home.
Keep knocking on wood...
Dr. V has Vulcan and Superman in his bloodline.
BTW Dr.V is really a major Trekkie and did dress up a bit.
Varoufakis as a vulcan and other internet hilarity
http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/people/article/varoufakis-as-a-vulcan-and-other-internet-hilarity
or some other version of "Turn Thoses Machines Back On !!!"
As long as your CEO has the right cufflinks and enough ex-employees working at the FED/Treasury/Congress, you are scott free.
1st thing I'd do if I were Greece.
Dear Russia,
In light of the recent US/EU coup in Ukraine, we have come to the conclusion that you may want to lease one of our lovely deep water ports. In return, we could work out an energy/food deal that would serve both our interests.
With Love,
Greece.
Might consider offering China something along those lines as well? If you really want to poke US/EU in the eye why not really spread some hate & discontent?
Just a thot.
George is arranging everything. Don't worry, be happy.
If U can find out WHAT he's arranging and front run him, or at least simultaneously copy him, all the better.
Moot point. ECB will pay them to stay eventually.
Yeah, they always pay with loans. Why not just make the rate negative? Hold on, baby. I'm gettin' creative...
And I get a kick out of people when they say that. When the whole fucking world is focussed on Greece's bookkeeping and see what has been going on does this really matter?
What fucking sort of bail out make people unseen what has been seen? Even if everyone on the Titanic could see the fucking iceberg they were still going to hit the fucking iceberg. We are at a point where there are no turns left that will steer us clear of disaster, only ones that give us seconds more before the hit.
Get it? It's over and this extension would be the last maintenance dose of vein candy. After this, if it does happen, the pain train pulls into the station. If not it's choo choo time.
what a load of horse shit. UBS are just scare mongering looking for clients to do trades to create vig. Dont listen to those wankers.
I'm getting really bored with the desperate Zero Hedge narrative. The outlook of the writers and the people who enjoy the articles is juvenile and simply wrong, as proven by the markets day in and day out. Just because you write articles and people read them doesn't make what you're saying an accurate reflection of reality.
In 10 years, or however long it takes, when Zero Hedge has lost its readership and is forced to become a stock picking subscription service, I will sell my stocks.
Do you deny that the collapse is coming?
Maybe it will. Maybe it won't. I personally believe it will and owe ZH a huge debt for helping me get ready. If I'm wrong I can always sell off my preps.
It happens this year or not for a generation.
I started prepping & stacking in'78 at the tender age of 36 when gold was under $200 and silver was peanuts (before it spiked to $50). My daughter was born in '79. Home birth (I delivered her - Midwife & Dr. present). Never vaccinated. The ex and I had serious discussions whether or not to concieve a child. I firmly believed in SHTF even then. The dtr (now a very healthy & single 35) knows where my caches are and what to do with them should something happen to me in the meantime - I am now 72. ZH keeps me convinced I was and am still correct - this year or another generation matters not. History seems to confirm that this time will not be different.
That's the funny thing about life. Things work till they don't.
I doubt on a warm sunny day in 1935 I could have convince anyone in Dresden or Nagasaki that they may want to move or be ready for 3000+ degrees in 10 years.
Things work till they don't.
Keep buying and selling stocks, I will keep working on my gardening skills.
global warming!
@ ben_bernanke - Love your sense of humor
I posted this on the other thread but it goes better here.
The Domino scene from ROBOTS is a great visual of small Greece going, then Spain, Then France, Then Italy, .....
Only about 30 seconds long but you get the picture of what happens when a small inconsequential domino falls...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EzVrzJy1ujc#t=44
(oh, then start it from the begining, very good)
Greece Good, Bad, Indifferent.... They are simply the first. We will all be in the same position. The US would be there now if we didn't have the reserve currency.
The huge wave of the currency/debt tsunami((very small while it was out to sea) is starting to have it's bottom hitting the rising shore, the bottom can no longer travel as fast as the top, it cannot carry it any longer, It will crash on the shore line taking out much when it does.
If your panic
panic first
Is Draghi rethinking that denial the ECB could even buy Gold
In addition there is a political trigger: Italy or Spain could morphe into Euro critics and develop the desire to abondon ship in which case the Euro is history.
Is GREXIT potentially bigger than Kreditanstalt or Lehman?
I'm late 40s with 4 kids and for the love of all that's mighty, I do not want my kids to live through this debt & ponzi shit show all their lives as well.
There needs to be a reset, a restart and a complete purge.
I'm ten years younger than you walkure with one of each,
You'll be alright mate, you're one of the good guys and not all of us will sit idle as this shit passes over us.
Just remember that old adage, keep calm and remember who caused this shit. Take care anyhow.
;-)
In between ya both with two girls. Fuck it. TEAR DOWN THE WALL.
couldn't agree more... let it burn... and rebuild...sans ECB, IMF et al.
If you are unsure about the banking guarrantees regarding your deposits why not start your research by asking your friends in Cyprus how it works.
Wolfgang Schäuble just explained: "Dann war es das eben!" This means: If Tsirpas does not proceed with the current program he will cut the line. There won't be a next bailout-package either.
As we learned to interpret our finance-minister in the last decades I can say with certainty: This is no game. This is an upset Schäuble who knows that German taxpayers would back him "whatever it takes".
In 2012 Schäuble was "on the edge" to kick Greece out - this time Miss Merkel won't stop him. Schäubles is the most powerful cabinet member and his word weighs.
Good. Then let the Greeks be just as persistent.
BURY THE FUCKING EURO IN THE TRASHBIN OF HISTORY BEFORE PEOPLE MUST DIE
I'm sure they're gonna love him lots when the Euro collapses, and they have to go back to Deutschmarks. THAT'S gonna eat into their exports, big time.
Especially when they look back and realize the amount of money that started all this was pretty insignificant.
Let's see what his word weighs then.