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How Fast Would Contagion Spread If Greece Exits The Eurozone
Perhaps the most curious aspect of this, third, Greece ""exit crisis, is just how completely unnoticed it has gone by the capital "markets", or rather non-Greek capital markets. Which, considering the changed dynamics of the negotiations, was to be expected. As explained again earlier, this time around it is imperative on the central planning regime to keep stocks and bonds as stable as possible heading into tomorrow's negotiations with Greece, because should global risk not bat an eyelid, it will mean that Greek leverage is non-existent as the "market" (which courtesy of central banks no longer really exists) does not anticipate any contagion, and is why the S&P has actually been surging in the past week.
There are two problems with this, as UBS laid out yesterday: 1) (lack of) risk no longer reflecting reality doesn't make sense and 2) "Breaking the deadlock" in negotiations voluntarily may not be easy, "hence, outside pressure—in the form of financial and market dislocations—seems necessary to focus minds."
However, as we noted yesterday, point 2 is only relevant for Europe: Syriza, and largely Greece, no longer cares what the stock market does: only the Eurozone does (and as long as the ECB is there to backstop it in any case, the European "market" isn't going anywhere). If anything, the only concern of the Greeks is what happens to bank deposits, although by this point anyone who would have pulled their money from the bank already has.
Which means that once again, thanks to central bank intervention, the discounting process is broken, and has been skewed to reach a specific political outcome. However, in the worst case scenario - one in which Greece does exit the Eurozone - it will simply mean that the moment of reality has been at best postponed. And the moment when the can kicking ends and reality can no longer be avoided is the millisecond after Greece announces it has quit the Eurozone.
What happens then is why UBS has dedicated an entire section to the contagion risk which is now being thoroughly masked by central bank intervention, and which will only emerge, and with a vengeance, if the worst case does indeed transpire. Needless to say, when it emerges it will be fast.
Here is how UBS believes a Greek Eurozone contagion will play out:
The contagion risk of a euro exit reflects the fact that there is a meaningful risk that other countries would join Greece in leaving the euro. The euro is patently not an optimal currency union at the moment, which gives economic momentum to the idea of a broader fragmentation.
Whether other countries leave the euro is contingent on two questions with binary outcomes:
- Do bank depositors think that their country could leave the euro?
- Does the euro area guarantee the integrity of the banking system?
A "double lock" is required to prevent contagion. An assurance that bank deposits are guaranteed by the ECB is completely worthless if the general public believe that the country is going to leave the Euro. If one believes that one's country may leave the euro, then what the ECB does or does not do will no longer apply within one's country, and so it is rational to withdraw one's money sooner rather than later. The parallel here is to the Czech and Slovak monetary union break-up in 1993; the governments both assured the public that the monetary union would stay and their savings were safe, but the public did not regard these statements as credible and so removed their savings from banks. The process became self-fulfilling as the extent of deposit flight contributed to the governments being forced to break their promises and end the monetary union.
If on the other hand, the authorities (in this case the euro area governments and the ECB) demonstrate so strong a commitment to the integrity of the remainder of the euro that they convince depositors that their money is safe, then there is no motivation to withdraw money from the banking system of a country as the assertion that depositors will be protected has validity. The parallel here is the US monetary union fragmentation and reforming between 1932 and 1933. The statements of the Federal government were not believed (and the monetary union fragmented) until what has been referred to as the "one, two punch" of a closing of the entire banking system and a "fireside chat" from the newly inaugurated President Roosevelt. The scale of the emergency banking legislation was seen as sufficient to guarantee the integrity of the system.
It is very difficult for governments to control the progress of a monetary union break-up because the example of one country exiting will create a precedent in the eyes of other members of the monetary union. The transmission channel is not government bonds, nor equities, not currency markets, but banks. In the event of a Greek exit from the euro, the loss in the real value of Greek bank deposits would encourage bank depositors in other countries to withdraw their funds. This is not a question of bank solvency in these other countries – just as deposit withdrawal from Scottish banks ahead of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was presumably not motivated by questions of solvency. Rather the motive is the perception of risk around what currency one will receive in exchange for one's deposit in the future, and what that currency will buy relative to what it can buy today.
The process can be very rapid indeed.
In its 1933 report the US Federal Reserve commented, with commendable understatement, that at the start of the year "In addition to currency hoarding, there were substantial transfers of deposit accounts from banks in which depositors had lost confidence to other institutions, involving in many cases the shift of funds from one section of the country to another."
Nevada was the first state to declare a bank holiday on 31 October 1932. The contagion was initially quite slow, but then accelerated – on 4 February 1933 Louisiana joined in, and then on 14 February Michigan declared a four-day holiday and then extended it. Michigan's actions are regarded as the tipping point for contagion. Less than a fortnight later a bank holiday was declared in Maryland. On 1 March 1933 four states declared holidays, another six declared on 2 March, another seven on 3 March, and five (including New York) on 4 March 1933. On 6 March 1933 the national banking system was closed by Presidential order.
In the case of the euro area it seems unlikely that the current, incomplete banking union and non-existent fiscal union would be sufficient to prevent the contagion of bank runs spreading to other countries in the wake of a Greek exit from the euro. The starting point is that other countries are at risk of departure in response to a Greek exit. If the political status quo is maintained, it has to be thought likely, maybe probable, that Greece will not be alone in exiting the euro. It would be irrational for depositors to gamble their life savings if they believe that there is even a 5% chance that their country could leave the Euro. A 5% chance of a 60% loss in the value of one's savings (assuming a Greek parallel) would make the effort of withdrawing or transferring funds worthwhile. As with the deposit withdrawal within Greece, once the first spark of fear has been ignited the conflagration of contagion is likely to spread very rapidly.
The issue is whether, subsequent to those strains emerging, new policy initiatives from the euro area would be sufficient to change perceptions around the credibility of the political will to defend the integrity of the euro. Unlimited support from the ECB to euro area banks, large-scale debt monetisation and euro area fiscal confederation would be the sort of policies that could change the perception of credibility. All, of course, come at a cost. One metric to measure the success of such policies might be analysis of the contagion not of bond or other financial markets, but of household sight deposits at banks. The correlation of the change in Greek deposits with the changes in sight deposits in some other peripheral countries has also been high in the past (notably in the wake of 2008 and in the wake of the first wave of concerns about membership of the euro area). While the correlations of deposit change are generally quite low, they are rising. Correlation is not causation, and there are many other factors (including overall economic performance) that can encourage such a correlation, but this fact does rather emphasise the risks.
The rise of European anti-establishment political parties in recent years has, perhaps, increased the risk of a more widespread contagion to other financial systems. Deference to authority, and particularly to authority within Europe, has diminished. Official assurances of the "irrevocable" monetary union (except for Greece) would likely carry less weight. The fact that anti-establishment parties have (to generalise) tended to draw support from lower skilled, older voters may further compound the problem. This economic demographic is less able to adjust their savings so as to hedge break-up risk (making physical cash the main option), and as an older age cohort they are more likely to have savings that are vulnerable.
This then adds an entirely unpredictable element to the Euro area cost of a Greek exit from the euro. The direct costs can be calculated, and an intelligent approximation of the costs of increased risk can be factored in. However, if the break-up of the union expands, the direct costs expand exponentially (because the costs of the Target 2 system increase, and the costs of recapitalising for the remaining members increase, and the costs of financial system exposure increase). The transmission of fear may not be to the most obvious of candidates of course – this is not a question of solvency or of economics. If a Greek exit from the euro leads to other countries exiting, it will be the lack of plausibility of policy makers that generates the collapse.
* * *
Which is precisely why Syriza is still, in this late 11th hour, maintaining its uncompromising position in hopes that Europe finally grasps that the downside risk from a Grexit is far, far greater than the downside from appearing weak and caving to one peripheral nation. It remains to be seen if Europe agrees with this, although following today's seesaw rumor-induced action, it appears that the standoff may well end without any agreement.
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Germany has always had trade surpluses. Germany's economy is largely export driven since 1945. China is one of Germany's largest customers already.
Going back to Deutschmark is NOT a problem! We were pegged to the French and Belgian Francs and the Dutch Gilders for the longest time before Euro.
The introduction of the Euro allowed the banks to expand their balance sheets (increase the net worth of the 1% overnight) by billions.
That was the real reason this crap was foistered upon ordinary Europeans in the first place.
Correct. The Germans are not dependent on currency values to become an efficient export-driven economy. Comes from the people.
I agree, going back to the DM would not be a problem for most Germans, who don't make a living exporting, and the adjustment would be brief. Too bad your politicians, like ours, have so far managed to convince so many that "BAD THINGS" would surely happen should the EURO (or Dollar) fail, or debt levels and valuations be deflated back to normal levels...
They play the religious angle by inventing an entire 'morality' around the idea of repayment no matter what, when in fact their own Bible has an entirely different view on debt, money-lending, and interest rates as well. In fact, there are more, and more specific, scriptures directed to the LENDERS of money, and governing their conduct that it is clear the Bible God holds THEM to a much higher standard, and expects the greater sacrifice from THEM. During the Jubilee, they had to write off debt, and there is NO provision made for their losses to be reimbursed by anyone, or to pursue the debtors through collections, or force them into austerity for years and years. They benefit greatly during the non-jubilee years, and pay a chunk back on occasion...cost of doing business, and to be borne exclusively by THEM, apparently as 'thanks' to the Lord for His allowing them to even engage in this condemned, despised behavior at all. Finance is not thought highly of, although accepted as necessary evil. But it was NEVER to be allowed to get out of hand. Even compounding interest can be held in check by 'letting the air out' every 7 years. It's not my scripture, but the Bible DOES handle the issue quite well, for those who follow it!
So when I hear that typical Calvinist northern Europe thinking, that the ONLY obligation of any importance is the one for the debtor to repay every last nickel of his debt no matter what, it pisses me off. It's a complete and total lie! And it is centered in northern Europe, like your Germany. I'm from Scotland, and there is very much that Protestant hair-shirt for your sins attitude towards personal misfortune. Some actually believe that personal wealth is a sign of FAVOR, so if you don't have any, it's because you aren't working hard enough, not because you're being bled dry by taxes, interest payments, fees and all that "high living" you've been doing, like paying rent and buying food with money worth less and less.
The politicians who tell you that there's some sort of "moral victory" that simply MUST be won over this issue of are lying. If they are appealing to the Bible for this morality, it simply is not there. And what IS there is mostly directed at THEM, and does not mean what they think it means.
It's their artificially inflated economy and their insistence on preserving it that is creating all the problems, not the moral failings of 'deadbeats'. German leadership is pressing this notion of "moral hazard" to force repayment to the banks no matter what. What is this morality based on? Clearly the Euro was a failure, and there IS no moral obligation to suffer to insure it's survival.
They've HAD their 6 years of profit, and have done well. If they WANT to uphold Biblical morality, it's time to Jubilee and pay the tithe...lest the Lord in His righteous anger tanketh their economy, and smiteth their digital bank accounts. Verily saith the Lord, thy McMansions shall be foreclosed, thy country club memberships cancelled, the value of thy stock portfolios shall be that of camel dung. Thy I-Phone shall be last years model, and thy wailing shall exceed the allowed bandwidth. And you will wander 40 years in the wilderness of deflating asset prices, until the last generation of derivatives has passed.
What you describe fits the criteria of the Shemitah perfectly. Like it or not, the observing Jews are well aware that this year is considered a Shemitah year. Will they observe it or not, that is the question. I'm not suggesting that all observing Jews are in a position to forgive debt. That's not my point.
There is a provision for jubilee and debt forgiveness to a religious group which is partly in control over much of the wealth and much of the ability to create and destroy paper wealth with a few keystrokes. Parts of this group had a fantastic streak of wealth building over the last 5 years at least. During this time the very basis of their wealth was expanded multiple times with creation of more debt.
Their turn to adjust and forgive.
I'm not sure if you're aware of the funcational mandates of religion, but "forgive goys" isn't in the repertoire of Jews. That was pretty much the thesis of this Jesus guy who came along and threw out the money-changers from the temple. He was forgiven with only a brand new set of timber and nails.
Unfortunately Jesus didn't throw them far enough...If He does come again, this time He ought to bring a sock full of pre-64 quarters and soften them up good before tossing. So they don't get up so fast this time...
I'm not particularly 'religious', but I DO know the Bible, and there is a lot of wisdom there...you just have to dust off the religious 'fluff', and get down to the basic message...
Finance was always meant to be an aid, an assistive device, to a growing, trading economy. NEVER to be an end in itself. And should it ever come down to Finance vs. Society, Finance takes the hit. Because it exists FOR society, not the other way around.
People, in their tiny, petty way, fail to see the Big Picture. Society gets first protection, because without it, everything else will fail, including Big Finance. The banks may think it's just awful that they may now have to give back some of what they've been looting, and see only their own losses. They fail to see that paying NOW will enable society to continue providing them with the nice living they've grown accustomed to.
It's not about Heaven and Hell...it's basic common sense.
The huns are very good at starting wars. Too bad they have a tendency to break and run when things get rough
You're obviously a comic book historian. Was it from the Beano or the Dandy that you acquired such deep knowledge?
Really,no amount of words is adequate to express the insanity of todays market action.The closer we come to the threshold of a Greek default,the higher markets surge,as if cataclysmic events are somehow benificial to economic stability?
.....and then they crash like a lead fiishing weight into the briny deep.....
Gold, Bit-Chez!
My dyslexia is back. I was about to look for gold in boxes of Cheez-It.
this place is nothing more than a way to complain about the weather.
Can we throw snowballs at you?
this place is nothing more than a way to complain about the weather.
Since you accidently double posted, Can we throw snowballs at you?
Its getting fucked up all over the EU my friends, just take what happened to me the day.
I had the bairns pet penguin out for a walk at dinner time yesterday, you know kids, wont do it themselves always the grownups, anyhow tied the shoe lace round his neck and was walking past the local park when a fucking tosser of a copper pulled me. He reckons these penguin things should be took to zoos, or I would be arrested if he sees me walking him again.
Guess what? By chance I had the penguin out for a walk at dinner time today and got pulled by the same fucking copper, he said 'I told you to take that to the zoo', I said 'I fucking did yesterday and we had a smashing time, were off to the pictures the day'.
Smile bitchez, looks we are going to need it.
;-)
ROFLMAO, you Brits have the best fucking sense of humor! Brilliant. Bollox to the bob, let him eat shit.
Brillant Inthemix96. Tears of laughter.
you can't get blood from a rock.
but you sure as hell can use the rock to get blood
LOL!
Switzerland breaks their peg to the euro, Costa Rica breaks its peg to the dollar. Two down, how many more to go?
http://www.bccr.fi.cr/noticias/Adopcion_esquema_flotacion_administrada.html
All the BIG wars always start in Europe.
With a full draft in effect in Ukraine and Greece becoming totally unglued I think they are right on course for another nice lesson in "Historia ipsa repetens"
"not fair"????
Are you fucking serious?? I mean really I didn't see the /sarc and stuff.
Dutch coalition partner VVD makes a firm statement towards Greece: Accept the troika, reform and pay back the debt otherwise: LEAVE !
http://nos.nl/artikel/2018470-vvd-griekenland-desnoods-uit-euro.html
Can't wait to see it happen!
Greeks tell the Dutch. Remember those tulips? How did that work out for your ancestors...
Tulip mania everywhere. All financed and funded with the full faith and credit of every hard working stiff who has no choice but to eat inflation so that 1% of parasitic assholes can enjoy their lives in the sunshine year round.
None of the issues this essay raises exist with a properly managed (i.e. process) Medium of Exchange (MOE),
None of the issues this essay raises exist with a properly managed (i.e. process) Medium of Exchange (MOE),
Non-Greek capital markets "not noticing"....until Greece is "solved", then DOW +1000.
This may be the final blow off top Dow +1000, ES +80, NQ +140. This would push the markets to the ATH and then blow off stops where I believe there are a lot of short smart people lurking. It make sense to release the 'Final Solution' news and after two days of orgy buying the leaks in the dam appear and the Ducthman holding their fingers pull them out rapidly ... wosh
Let Greece default on their obligations and good luck to them. Yea I know the banks have them by the short hairs but they BORROWED THE MONEY! Walking away from the ECB and into the tender, loving arms of the Russians or Chinese will be a text book example of jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Tony Soprano and Johnny Sack had nothing on Putin and Xi if the Greeks decide to go that way.
Perhaps it is the other way around... Greece may have the EU “by the short hairs”! ROFL.
As far as (Russia, China, Iceland, etc...) are concerned, perhaps they are attractive to the Greeks because they appear to actually deal with their oligarch and bankster problems. For example:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/chinas-solution-tyrannical-bill...
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/finance/4574
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2014/11/20/breaking-iceland-sends-another-r...
They have their suicides too... http://www.aa.com.tr/en/news/456723—four-dead-as-russian-banker-commits-murder-suicide
Such actions may be a significantly better deterrent than a fine and slap on the wrist.
I'm not defending the bankers. I hate those a-holes. What I'm more concerned about is the average Greek who thinks he/she is going to be better off alienating their European neighbors and expecting things to improve. They won't. Greece will be a hell hole either way. Better to smooze the cowardly bankers and cut a sweet deal than trust to the tender mercies of the commies and whatever the Russians call themselves. The Greeks are going to be exploited either way. I'd choose the ECB and jerk their chain before I'd attempt that with Putin.......or Xi. Those are two tough guys you wouldn't want to jack around with.
Fast forward, please.....
Collapse is already happening, we're just experiencing it in real time instead of watching it in a 2 hour movie about how no one could have seen it coming! ROFL.
Greece?
Big deal. What is it's GDP? 2% of the whole Eurozone?
The real danger is China's unwinding. The second (or first depending on your math) largest economy is finally starting to see that there are consequences for it's massive expansion of credit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-12/charlene-chu-says-chin...
The thing to look at is it's imports...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/08/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKBN...
Commodities will go lower... much lower. Economies like Canada and Australia which have supplied much of China's raw materials are going to feel to sting.
It's going to be a deflationary spiral for everyone.
Hang on tight boys.
I think this is true. Canada still living in a bubble - "what us...here...huh...no way eh". Oil prices aren't going anywheres anytime soon, except maybe down. There will be fallout - manageable - but fallout all the same. We are already starting to see some chinks in the so-called great Canadian banking armour. Poloz will continue dropping rates and let the $CDN go. Like, fuck it right?
And then we will go negative like everybody else seems hell bent on doing. Canadians have no idea what inflation really is, but, they are about to find out.
Bumping into them on a regular basis, I have high regard for Canadians (individually).
However, (and u just knew there had to be a however), they have this child like belief in their government that is both touching and yet heart-retching.
When push comes to shove, Canada,OZ and NZ are but mere colonies to .... ???
Truth is, I'm not quite sure. Is it Wall St or City of London.
The rich people who expect to be fully repaid on their Greek loans would, in the event of a default, do as much damage to the rest of the world as they possibly could. Not so much because they need the money, they have to make sure nobody else gives it a try.
I think the FED was busy today selling Au/Ag and buying NQ and ES to cushion the blow. Greece has a lot to gain from joining Russia ans unjoining Germany
The Greece/ECB/Ez/EU interplay, circa 2015, is not about "Greece".
Rahm Emanuel's quote of "never let a crisis go to waste" comes to mind. This is about a Brussels/ECB takeover of the nation-states Brussels/ECB is supposed to serve.
You should be aware that Rahm Emanuel didn't coin this phrase. It was used by Netanyahu after 9/11 happened. You'll note that Israel pushed forward its militancy in these years, crushing the "peace" that was signed in the 90s. What better way to hide that you're a soulless manipulative thief than to take advantage of people who have already been hurt!
don't underestimate the capacity of brussels to use all sorts of dirty tricks to CRUSH an exited greece. blood in the streets there is the only backstop to contagion. SOROS round up the troops!
Fuck Soros, the scum sucking nazi wannabe!
It's all about "SAVING" the banks (mostly) and the bond holders.
FUCK'M BOTH!
When Ukrainian army officers came to the Ukrainian village of Velikaya Znamenka to tell the men to prepare to be drafted, they weren’t prepared for what happened next.
As the commanding officer was speaking, a woman seized the microphone and proceeded to tell him off: "We’re sick of this war! Our husbands and sons aren’t going anywhere!"
She then launched into a passionate speech, denouncing the war, and the coup leaders in Kiev, to the cheers of the crowd.
Brilliant! I guess she won't be invited back on CNBC anytime soon either.
In my opinion, the only opinion I heard and read today that really hits home and should be heard around the world was the Ukrainian woman refusing to let the army take the men from a village.
She had guts and integrity, called a spade a spade and we need more like her on this side of the Atlantic.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-10/ukrainians-rage-against-military-draft-were-sick-war#comment-5768152
I've read that mothers wait at the mailbox everyday to intercept and burn draft notices. Ukraine is doomed
No fast enough.
I just hope they do something and do it quick...I'm sick and tired of hearing about Greece.
I think we have winner! Don, tell the man what prize he won?
It's a new Chevvy Veeeega!
He who preps last ends up in bad shape.
All of this currency risk is very negative for gold. Why hold gold when you can theoretically hold receipts for euros in an insolvent Greek bank?
Putin regime terrorists has started to bomb civilians in https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE... which is defended by Ukraine people and it's army.
Another Putin regime terrorist war crime.
RUS: http://youtu.be/--mZ8WhqzQE
I hear the Ukranian army is looking for some cannon fodder. Sounds like a perfect job for you.
Whats it like swallowing monkey jizz at the Whitehouse every day.
I heward AIDS raddled Kenyan faggot monkey jizz is yellow, is that right?
stop drinking monkeyjizz, you CIA muppet
I'm sure it's a busy night for 'palm~reading astrologers'.
Am I mistaken in assuming that if the EU somehow manages to rope Greece back into the fold, that we'll be having these same discussions regading Italy or Spain sooner rather than later?
Perhaps the EU is like the late Ottoman Empire...the "Sick old man of Europe." Time to break it up.
It is interesting to see how the focus is on one side of the contagion equation: "If Greece leaves will other countries follow", while people seem to largely ignore the other which is: "If Greece gets debt forgiveness, will other countries follow". The second is extremely important to decision makers, as most of them - and their banks - will be the ones (their tax payers and constituents), who will foot the bill.
What if Greece folds and takes the money? What then...same old, same old, extend and pretend on all sides!
To the rest of Europe, Greece is like a noisy and drunken party guest who eats and drinks much more than any of the other guests. You would really like him to leave, but worry that he would make a scene if you suggest it. Now he is badmouthing one of the hosts and threatening to leave if the host doesn't send out for more ouzo. What would you do if you were that host?
What is .... Faster than an esteemed guest at a DSK Sex Party can spill his seed.
No excuse for bad manners, I'd ask him politely to leave, failing to do so, I'd kick him out on his ear. But your analogy is not quite the same. The situation is much worse, than that of a drunkard. I would liken it to a bank robber, would you rather him flee, or take hostages?
Watch out now, that kind of talk will get you downvotes here.
Greece is broke, but so is the EU, and pretty much everyone else! What we have now is a global sea of worthless fiat floating around, ready to catch fire with the first spark - could Greece be it?
I would like this ponzi to be broken, sooner, rather than later, as the longer it goes, the harder it is to fix, and the more pain spread around.
His analogy is not a relevant one - but neither is yours. Sticking with the "drunk" allusion, would be fine...as long as proper context were given.
Now, if you were to frame Greece's presence as having been coaxed into coming to the party ("No really...c'mon...everybody is going to be there! You GOT to come!), and upon arrival the hosts handed them a drink(a double) and kept topping them off all through the party, and as a matter of fact even pouring so much that a bigger glass was necessary. Greece - as drunks are wont to do - keeps slurping down the booze.
Now mind you, Greece is not the only sloppy drunk at this party - they are just the lightest-weight. The other drunks are merely a couple of drinks behind, but let's face it...shit-faced is shit-faced, and everyone at this party knows that alcohol poisoning is bad - even deadly - including the hosts - yet they kept - INDEED THEY WANT TO KEEP - pouring the booze.
I don't know about you guys, but if I witness a party with hosts like that, encouraging - BY THE VERY NATURE OF THE PARTY - irresponsible behavior like described above...
I wouldn't give a rat's red ass about the hosts wailing and moaning about the belligerent drunk asshole puking on their persian rug, and making passes at their mothers.
Fuck them.
They got what they deserved.
It's your opinion, I respect that...but this is hardly about a bunch partiers and drunks.
It is about people stealing other peoples money, and holding them hostage to it and blackmail...whatever the analogy is Greece is broke by their own actions, and the EU is broke by their own actions. Difference is Greece can't print euros, the EU can, they all are a bunch of crooks, just like the US Fed.
Regardless of who deserved what, the die was cast when the Greeks started calling the Germans Nazis. There will be no renegotiation and no extensions. Any deviation from the agreement and the Greeks will be shown the door. The only question is whether they will be forced out of the EU as well as the Euro.
I thought asking for reparations was a slick move. There is another Mediterranean state that almost totally lives off of it. I should know, Mrs. Upgrayedd worked in the "Holocaust Reparations" industry for some time over here. Every few years Germany is guilted into passing a new law to provide more money. Lol the latest one gave pensions to people who were in lands occupied by Germany (like Tunisia for example) because they "worked" for Germany, through some twist of law and reason. Oh sorry, these monies are only for Jews - did I mention that? Greece is therefore fuckt on that account. Goy victims go home empty, bitchez.
("No really...c'mon...everybody is going to be there! You GOT to come!)
You forgot the part where Goldman Sachs got them fake ID to get into the club.
GS "Ya, they're of age, trust us, let them in..."
Grease, meet Flint.
If my entire financial deck of cards was dependent upon pretending he was a man of sterling character....
I'd haul ass and get him his ouzo, then let him know I think the sun shines out his ass.
They already made that movie awhile back ...
The Party with Peter Sellers
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Party_(film)
Printing Presses are ready to contain the contagion. Of course the reality is that muppets who still hold on to papers will find them backed by more gases. Gases that are priced in dysfunctional markets.
If it gets into phases of further extortions of Preys; so be it as the exit routes of the Predators like first class cabins of planes have to be preserved at all costs. (Probably a flight to the cleanest dirty linens aroud - US$ for temporal parking). Predators love it to pick on the carnages in the real economies later.
And how fast would Cramer say it's bullish? And how fast would more QE be announced? And how fast will grandma's retirement fund be vaporized?
I can't believe I'm cheering for Greece....a bunch of government loving socialist who felt entitled to retire at 57 with a full pension. And Bernie Sanders want to bail them out? WTF planet do I live on?
#whereismybailout
Sanders has the brain of a toad. Which is why he was allowed to run for office.
Hey, fuck it all... fuck greece fucking greek mofo's....fuck europe and all those europeans which is what I am in front of the urinal...
fuck the eu, fuckitall. So.sick of this corrupt shjthole.
Yo?
Operation Pastorius. Read the book called Eight Spies Against America.
http://househistoryman.blogspot.com/2014/08/german-spies-at-mayflower-ho...
Same plot, different back drop scene.
It only seems like yesterday when Merkel and Obama were hiding behind bullet proof glass talking about Hope & Change. Obama resembled a Kenyan cotton picking workhand sweating his nuts off.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2344442/Obama-makes-historic-spe...
We will all be better prepared and stronger for it if Greece does exit ,and viable contigencies are applied. Global Goverment debt is coming and there is nowhere to run, this can be a valid compliment to valid solutions!
A 100 ES POINT DROP IS COMING IN AS MANY SECONDS, volatility LIKE WE HAVE NEVER SEEN
MBD: "I hate to break it to zerohedgers, but the reality is Greece simply cannot leave the Eurozone."
I think MBD is right about this one.
If Greece leaves, their economy collapses and they become a great example for the rest of the PIIGS to stay in line.
"Syriza, and largely Greece, no longer cares what the stock market does: only the Eurozone does"
Maybe they think they don't. But they, like everyone else in the world, have a fractional reserve banking system.
Somewhere between 90 and 99 percent of the money they think they have is just market confidence.
So while they might BELIEVE that they don't care about the market, the fact is that when the market doesn't like Greece, somewhere between 90 and 99 percent of what they believe they have will simply and completely disappear overnight (it can actually disappear just as fast as it was created... with a few keyboard strokes).