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How Russia Plans To Retaliate For The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago we explained that yet another conspiracy theory, one involving virtually every geopolitical hotzone, from Saudi Arabia, to Russia, the United States, Qatar, Syria, ISIS, and Ukraine, has become fact when our speculation from last September, namely that the plunge in oil was an choreographed move between the US and the Saudis (even if Kerry realized - we hope - that it meant a recession for the US energy producing states and a collapse in the only vibrant US industry of the past decade: shale), one seeking to dislodge Russian control over the Syrian government and to facilitate the passage of a Qatar pipeline under Syrian territory.

This is what the NYT said: "Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices."

The NYT added:

Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices.

That's the quo. As for the quid, it is as we predicted:

Any weakening of Russian support for Mr. Assad could be one of the first signs that the recent tumult in the oil market is having an impact on global statecraft. Saudi officials have said publicly that the price of oil reflects only global supply and demand, and they have insisted that Saudi Arabia will not let geopolitics drive its economic agenda. But they believe that there could be ancillary diplomatic benefits to the country’s current strategy of allowing oil prices to stay low — including a chance to negotiate an exit for Mr. Assad.

 

"Russia has been one of the Syrian president’s most steadfast supporters, selling military equipment to the government for years to bolster Mr. Assad’s forces in their battle against rebel groups, including the Islamic State, and supplying everything from spare parts and specialty fuels to sniper training and helicopter maintenance."

To be sure, the  Chairman of the Russian State Duma International Committee Alexei Pushkov promptly rejected all the NYT allegations, writing on his Twitter account:

“There were no negotiations with the Saudis to decrease oil production
in exchange for Moscow’s refusal to support Assad. Hoax.”

... but that was to be expected - after all it is not as if the two powers are on friendly terms, plus the NYT leak was meant to push the fulcrum of leverage away from Russia.  What is certain, however, is that Putin couldn't care less about his "friend" Assad, but he cares very much about Gazprom preserving its near-monopolistic dominance as marginal energy provider to Europe of last resort, one which gives Russia as much leverage over the bulk of Europe as the ECB's printing press, if not much more: Draghi's outside money only reaches about 1% of the population; Gazprom's heat reaches everyone.

However, what is key in the above chain is that while the Saudis (and Qataris) have been orchestrating events in the middle east, using the US as a diplomatic patsy, one which has provided a convenient strawman over the past year in the form of ISIS, or the same anti-Assad jihadist rebels that the same US was arming actively as recently as late 2013, the US has been carefully managing the second front in the war of European energy dominance, that involving Ukraine.

It is not secret that the chain of events that have transpired in Kiev over the past year, starting with the coup of then president Yanukovich and the preceding "Euromaidan" violence were to a great extent orchestrated by the US as the infamous "Fuck the EU" recording revealed. Incidentally, "fucking the EU" is precisely what the US state department did, because the subsequent chain of events including economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia by the White House backfired, led to a plunge in European trade with Russia and was directly responsible for Europe's triple-dip recession of 2014. Well, it helped one group of people: the 0.1% who benefit from the subsequently start of Europe's own QE, whose proximal catalyst was none other than the western "isolation" of Russia.

But while so far the Ukraine gambit has backfired on the west - not completely: after all, one or more western buyers did manage to "acquire" all of Ukraine's dozens of tons of gold at firesale, or lower, prices - the Saudi escalation, which is about to lead to one or more state level recessions in US oil producing regions and then, to a major economic deterioration at the national level, has indeed managed to hurt Putin far more than any trivial developments involving Ukraine (which just so happens is now ex-Crimea thanks to Victoria Nuland's strategic brilliance).

As such, while Putin may be laughing about Obama's impotence to creat any impact on the foreign arena, and is generally oblivious to what the US lame duck president does, the same can not be said of Saudi Arabia, which is very clearly involved in the global proxy war which now stretches to several continents and many countries, and whose ultimate goal is a traditional one: energy.

And since it is a proxy war, as the US demonstrated when it involved Ukraine in what is really a fight over the future of European energy dependence (be it on Russia or Qatar), Russia has every right to contemplate how it may retaliate to any additional US escalation in Urkaine. In a proxy fashion.

Which is why we were rather shocked to read what the Moscow Times wrote in an article today, in which it said that "U.S. provision of military aid to Ukraine would be seen by Moscow as a declaration of war and spark a global escalation of Ukraine's separatist conflict, Russian defense analysts said. With Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine seizing new territory from the Ukrainian army, voices in Washington are demanding that Kiev be given defensive weapons and hardware — including lethal equipment — to hold the line."

But if such aid were sent, "Russia would reasonably consider the U.S. to be a direct participant in the conflict," said Evgeny Buzhinsky, a military expert at the Moscow-based PIR Center.

That is not the shocking part: in fact, it has been largely anticipated for a long time. What is, however, is the following stark admission that in the next round of retaliatory escalations, sparks will fly. Literall:

Russian defense analysts polled by The Moscow Times said unanimously that U.S. arms transfers to Ukraine would be interpreted in Moscow as a declaration of open proxy war with Russia and inevitably lead to escalation of the conflict.

 

"It would become tit-for-tat," said Maxim Shepovalenko, an analyst at the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology (CAST).

 

"Moscow will not just sit by calmly and see what happens, it will counteract," he said.

As for the target? Well, one could say they saw it coming from a desert away:

The Russian counterstrike could take the conflict far beyond Ukraine, according to the source on the Defense Ministry's public advisory board.

 

Pointing to one possible avenue of asymmetrical retaliation, the source said Moscow could give in to long-standing Chinese requests for sensitive defense technologies that would aid in its development of high-tech weapons capable of doing serious damage to U.S. naval forces in the Asia-Pacific. Moscow has so far declined China's requests on "politically correct pretenses," the source said.

The punchline:

"That's just one example. We can also encourage Iran, or even back Iran in a fight — a military operation — with Saudi Arabia, so then the prices for oil will skyrocket," the source said, explaining that these were just two possible responses.

Simple and elegant: if the US does everything in its power to deflect attention from the ongoing conflict for the control of Syria by backing a proxy civil war in Ukraine merely meant to keep Moscow off guard, a civil war that Ukraine and the west are now perilously close to losing, Russia will retaliate, but not in Kiev - that's irrelevant. It will do so where the pain to the west would be greatest: in Saudi Arabia, the place that is the true ground zero of all Russian hurt in the past 6 months, ever since oil started tumbling from $100, and continued following the historic collapse of OPEC on Thanksgiving Day 2014, where Saudi Arabia unilaterally decided to crush the price of oil indefinitely, or until Putin comes crawling, and begging for a Saudi oil supply halt, in exchange for al-Assad's head on a silver platter.

Well, that may happen... or if the US does arm Ukraine, Russia may just do everything in its power to take the proxy war away from Ukraine, and right into the hornets' nest of the House of Saud itself.

Taking all this into account, we would like to add to our oil-buying catalyst.

A week ago we said:

For those who want to know when to buy oil, the answer is simple: just after (or ideally before) Putin announces he will no longer support the Assad regime. If, that is, he ever does because that act will effectively destroy all leverage Putin may ever have over Europe, and in the process, also end - quite prematurely - his career. Until then, every single HFT-induced spike in oil is one to be ultimately faded, because as the past few months have shown, it is the Saudis who set the price, and they will not take no for an answer, even if it means crippling the entire US shale, and energy, industry in the process.

To this we will add: the moment Congress and/or Europe votes though a resolution to arm Ukraine with "lethal aid", that may be the time to go all-in crude, on margin. Because after that what has until now been a global proxy war will become far less proxy in a very short period of time.

 

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Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:04 | 5769395 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

My money is on Russia putting air force baces and Russian manned S-400 units inside of Iran. Just to piss off the Saudis and US.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:21 | 5769467 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Regime change for the Saudis.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:29 | 5769508 knukles
knukles's picture

The Great Game is Afoot, Watson!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:32 | 5769518 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Those mad fucks in DC are going to blow up the world.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:37 | 5769541 knukles
knukles's picture

An' all this over a simple little gas pipeline
(snigger snigger)

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:47 | 5769580 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Kerry: To get to the Uber-Oil, we'll have to use ketchup....

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:29 | 5769737 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Yup, check out google earth images...flick back through timeline to 2001...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:48 | 5769809 wintermute
wintermute's picture

The US thinks that getting rid of Assad is worth the price of crippling its own shale oil industry? 

If so, the the neocon nuts really are in control of the madhouse.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:53 | 5769821 Keyser
Keyser's picture

We can only hope that Vlad plays the 9/11 trump card in the international clown show known as diplomacy...  i wonder if the american sheeple would even pay attention...

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 05:39 | 5770359 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

They wouldn't.

There is no independent media in the US to speak of capable of producing the outrage necessary for a change. The masses will sort of revolt once the government runs out of redeemable foodstamps but I don't see an American spring, not by a long shot. Most  Americans are good company but when they should take matters in their hands it tuns out they are essentially a bunch of lazy bastard who well enjoy to wage high-tech-war against third-world dictators (or watching it on tv) but I NEVER EVER can imagine "American pro-constitution rebels, APR" fight against a Washington-DC-based Nazi dictatorship the way the Novorussians do in this moment. This is true of course for all people in the West (with perhaps the exception of the not-yet completely de-balkanized Greeks).

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 07:53 | 5770461 DonGenaro
DonGenaro's picture

HEY - don't make me waddle off of this couch !

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 18:35 | 5773401 unicorn
unicorn's picture

the moment you cant post 9-illevent on phukkphacepiuke youll know, the pics are released, and guugl wont be your friend.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:53 | 5769823 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

The neocon nuts need to be neutered from the government.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 04:07 | 5770329 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

I think Neocons believe it is worth getting rid of Assad to remove one of Israel's enemies (PNAC style). Anything else is just collateral damage.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 06:22 | 5770410 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

They may well -- and it doesn't sound entirely mad to me.

Some thinly capitalized shale oil companies will go bust in the short term, but it doesn't take vast amounts of money to start fracking.  Sucks for the early investors, unfortunately, but they (or their successors) will come back quickly enough when the oil price rises again.

Furthermore, the technology won't get un-invented.  It'll continue to improve, and the cost of production is only likely to fall as a result.

So yes: not saying it's right, but it's not inconceivable that the US gov't might think that triggering a short-term downturn is well worth it if it'll unseat a monster like Assad.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:52 | 5769812 strannick
strannick's picture

Arms to Nazis in Ukrane, and proxy service Muslim Monarchy in Suad.

America loves democracy. And peace.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:50 | 5769813 strannick
strannick's picture

.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 01:50 | 5770194 weburke
weburke's picture

. indeed. well, here is an italian family member putting a medal of some sort on putin. I have a photo of CASTRO putting a medal on the chest of the head of the knights of malta, the queens cousin no less !     digest that. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:50 | 5770105 Lore
Lore's picture

Or they could just pull images from the background of a video game, like the "satellite images" of "Russian" tanks in Ukraine. Funny how our western media pumped the hell out of that as a news item and then abruptly dropped it like a rock after the lie was exposed...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:30 | 5769743 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"The Great Game is Afoot, Watson!"

In-deed, Holmes.

Back Iran in fight, exactly as scripted by TPTB, no?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:54 | 5769828 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That would likely start WWIII.  Treaties between the US and Saudi Arabia and all.  

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:49 | 5769816 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

What we ought to do is make a deal with Russia to supply us with oil/gas via pipeline to the North Pacific.  It would be a pretty short haul from there to the homeland.  Plus we can rid ourselves of supporting anyone in the middle east.  Let Europe or Asia deal with it, if they so choose.  Not to mention, this is more inline with our supposed values. 

 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:42 | 5769565 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

 

B..B..But Martin Armstrong says that the drop in oil prices has nothing to ...... err....

Oh NEVER MIND.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:06 | 5769649 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Armstrong also characterized Mohammed Al-Thani as a "very kind and good person" last fall.  I understand the duality of leadership and not speaking ill of the dead, but there are polite alternatives short of blowing smoke up everyone's ass.  If Martin didn't know what the Emir's government was doing, then he really needs to update the Commodore 64 to something more sophisticated and stop taking others at face value simply because of shared passions.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:58 | 5769824 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

They are losing the grip no question about it but I have them more as simple stupid fucks .

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:10 | 5769664 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

With a smell of fresh glass in the air

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:39 | 5769548 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

My money is on Russia putting air force baces and Russian manned S-400 units inside of Iran. Just to piss off the Saudis and US.

Anti-shipping missiles.

Drone-fucking technology.

Loans to Greece.

Half-price natty for Germany.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:33 | 5769758 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

That is interesting stuff. Myself, I do not know how much is in it, but if there is solid evidence, then it is a bombshell.

I make a point of following Russia closely. I think I have heard before that Russia has some damning evidence on 9/11, but I don't hear much about it or what it might be.

If the USA knows Russia has such evidence, clearly the USA is NOT acting like it knows this. The US is literally pounding Russia in the face and daring them to react. Going for Ukraine in a coup, and then NATO occupation, was an act as close to a declaration of war as possible, without actually doing it.

I can't say I know what really happened 9/11. I have suspected the USA let it happen, maybe even allowed Saudi to plan and carry it out.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:08 | 5770018 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

don't know, it's hard to "let" a building fall as fast as gravity, especially when Marvin Bush is in charge of security 

Great article

the US and Saudi fall begins with people realizing they're a lot more vulnerable than people think.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:08 | 5770025 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

Thanks for posting Jack but i think it will be no bombshell. it's nothing new, and just because the Russians say it, the average American will be told to not believe the communist lies and will be even more steadfast in his or her denial.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:02 | 5769845 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It would be very difficult to forgive Putin for withholding such evidence all this time.  It might bring an uprising back home but once that is over there are a lot of people around the world who must have known and took the slavemasters' bribes. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 01:40 | 5770182 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

I hear what you're saying TheReplacement however if it was obtained via Edward Snowden then the time frame isn't unreasonable. Doesn't wikileaks go over stuff with a fine-tooth comb before publishing? I do think the world is ready for MH-17 however. The actors in the Ukraine "government" would be deemed unfit and UN peacekeeping forces deployed. Tricky business...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:41 | 5769553 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

My heart tells me I wish iran would just roll into Saudi Arabia and take out the demonic House of Saud  -then when israel attacks Iran, unleash Hezbollah to attack Israel and watch the IDF cowards run like hell, especially when the Gazan Palestinians attack and overthrow their persecutors. --But my brain tells me Putin will be patient and largely ignore the provocations of the US/Israeli Bankster controlled Zionists - while continuing his chess board domination of the Neocon controlled Obama administration, which is supremely arrogant, wholly lacking in patience, and which has no understanding of history and geopollitics, and whose Hubris, lack of basic humanity and perverse immorality  - will likely assure their destruction. 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:02 | 5769632 Pie rre
Pie rre's picture

All of the ME monarchs need to be expunged.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:17 | 5769686 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

savy??? you cheerlead hezbollah? - killer of children and women, their own and others; not much different than ISIS; i have never read or heard of any israeli forces running or being cowardly

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:42 | 5769742 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

They ran with their heads between their tails the last time they attacked hezbollah. Of course, in retliation they bombed the cities and infrastructure of the entire state of Lebonon - I suppose they considered they save face by doing so. Don't expect the IDF to engage in actual combat with Hezbollah warriers next time - drones and depleted uranium cluster bombs and bunker buster small nukes will likely be their method of warfare. 

Kiler of women and children? are you kidding me? You must have loved American Sniper - About the time of the last Israeli invasion of Lebonon, it was an almost daily practice of IDF snipers to shoot Palestinian kids in the back in their efforts to stir up another Palestinian Infitada. It did not really materialize, but they invaded Gaza anyway and attacked Hezbollah in Lebonon. Big mistake. IDF is pretty good at killing unarmed innocents -or the likes of Rachel Corrie -but not too good at fighting real warriors. Like I said, they do best with drones, snipers, cluster and bunker buster bombs  -in unlimited amounts -they're free-courtesy of the American taxpayer. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:09 | 5770028 falconflight
falconflight's picture

My favorite part of the movie was when Kyle blew the head off the muslim savage from about 2,000 yards.  Your left hand needs washing or don't you consider how your goat feels at night?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:17 | 5770052 MiTasol
MiTasol's picture

- IDF is pretty good at killing unarmed innocents -or the likes of Rachel Corrie -but not too good at fighting real warriors.

-

Their elite warriors are busy hammering keyboards for the hasbara.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:21 | 5770061 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Goat fcking pig...your mama loves pig btw :)

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:25 | 5770072 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Delusional muttslum....Allah ain't willing.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:00 | 5770010 falconflight
falconflight's picture

A Goebbels-Mohammedan's wet dream.  Tactical (artillery) fired low yield nuclear ordinance would vaporize Hellbulla along most of the 10 mile swath of that UN safe zone in roughly 3 minutes.  Don't doubt that said ordinance isn't readily available and a part of the IDF's scenario planning.  Don't doubt that once the Family Saud is deposed and the PetroDollar tanks, all bets are off for all the alphabet soup of goat fucking Arab cowards and their Shia cousins in Persia.    

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:44 | 5769568 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Russia really does not war, just like Putin says.

Like the gal who told the Ukrainian soldiers they were not going to take husbands and sons.  She said, we were there, the people in Crimea turned to Russia, not a shot was fired.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:54 | 5769608 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

My money is on the US Air Force.  

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:25 | 5769715 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

Too what? Get shot down?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:40 | 5769787 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

US Airpower is impressive. But, I think the record will show that the last time they flew against even a marginal air defense network was over North Vietnam. And the losses we considerable, but not crippling. Since then, they simply haven't faced any anti aircraft complex worth the name. I know for a fact, the US Navy believes the US Airforce would NOT be able to operate for extended periods against Russia, due to losses to Russian mobile air defenses. But, we will only know when that day comes. I doubt the US Air Force would relish flying into an S-400 and TOR M2U air defense complex with passive air defense tracking and targeting, with active radars for firecontrol.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:55 | 5769832 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I think the west's air superiority meme would end the first time a carrier is sunk by a Chinese made missile. Something about losing that many trained people and resources in one single blow...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:13 | 5770040 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Now that is a scenario that American commanders better be very worried about rather than em-betting trannies, homosexuals, and man-hating dikes into the Rainbow Brigade.  Personally, I'd love to see them all sent into combat.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:05 | 5769860 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I suspect that our air power would wind up being a lot like the German Tiger tanks in WWII.  They would kick ass in the fights they get into, but they would be overwhelmed by the sheer size of Russia and the logistical requirements of wiping out Russia's military assets over that vast space, much like the Tigers were eventually overwhelmed by the sheer number of M4 Shermans, T34s, tank destroyers, etc...

 

Of course, none of that would matter when the ICBMs and SLBMs start flying.  

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 02:24 | 5770242 TeraByte
TeraByte's picture

Air supremacy is money wasted, when wars become lost on the ground. After an intrinsic success of flamboyant air strikes the harsh ground war reality always takes over ( Vietnam Iraq Afghanistan Libya etc), because plans B are nonexistent. It  would be a grave mistake to count on invulnerability of high tech after Serbs brought down a F117 by a simple modification to radar signal.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 03:29 | 5770300 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Yes, and even if we didn't have all of the problems that we have here at home, I doubt we have the stomach for a real ground war with Russia.  If they were actually invading the US or something that was actually threatening us we would, but over this shit?  I'll donate a rifle to a neocon and he can go over and fight them.  Leave the rest of us the fuck out of it.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:43 | 5769843 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Living in the past , when men were men and Obama was an organizer for Acorn.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:01 | 5769621 noben
noben's picture

"My money is on Russia putting air force baces and Russian manned S-400 units inside of Iran. Just to piss off the Saudis and US."

I'd settle for Russia/Putin manning up and putting them into Syria.

But, as I recall, the last time they delivered weapons to Syria, IDF bombed the storage place and no one did anything about it. All I'm seeing is "soft moves", which has a Chinese or KGB style look, smell and feel to it, and which suggests to me that the Chinese are holding back Putin, or his KGB roots are showing, but not his non-existent military roots.

"Credibility is as credibility does" -noben

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:07 | 5769652 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

All I'm seeing is "soft moves", which has a Chinese or KGB style look, smell and feel to it, and which suggests to me that the Chinese are holding back Putin, or his KGB roots are showing, but not his non-existent military roots.

I agree, that's all 'you are seeing'.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:16 | 5769682 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

There are places they could use that the IDF is unlikely to bomb, even with the Nutty Yahoo in charge...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SA-N-6_SAM_launchers_with_radar.JPEG

(thats's a 64-pack...) 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:57 | 5769836 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

No sane person wants another world war.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:06 | 5769863 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Good thing our neocons are insane then!

 

Oh shit!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:00 | 5769628 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Lets hope not, because if that crazy tribe that lives on the easter shores of the Mediterranean feels threatened, they may use some of those 400 special bombs that they don't have..

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:29 | 5769738 julian_n
julian_n's picture

Well Russia gaining influence in Greece could be interesting too.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 03:16 | 5770289 king leon
king leon's picture

Iran can look after it's selfe .Russia should put troops into syria and rout ISIS,  that would send a message to the US/NATO.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 07:14 | 5770442 supercelld
supercelld's picture

I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:06 | 5770577 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

My money is on Russia putting air force baces and Russian manned S-400 units inside of Iran. Just to piss off the Saudis and US.

How do you know they aren't in Iran already?....  After what the Zionsit/Wahhabi contingent has already perpetrated in Syria and now Ukraine in addition to what's been done over the past decade inside Russia with the Chechens who they control, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Iran has them either on their soil or in close support in the form of a Russian ballistic missile somewhere embedded in the Caspian or Persian gulf!


Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:04 | 5769396 HedgeAccordingly
Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:20 | 5769469 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

And Ouzo from Greece.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:16 | 5769683 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Opa, comrades!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:07 | 5769398 stant
stant's picture

There talk vlad is about to drop a bomb about .gov it doesn't want known.???

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:07 | 5769403 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

And one by one, all the military powers in the Middle East, all the ex-clients of the old USSR are destroyed through invasion or civil war, or pushed to war so they get destroyed.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:17 | 5769455 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

L'heim!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:19 | 5769468 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

What's with the neg rep?

Iraq? Invaded
Syria? Civil war
Egypt? Civil war
Libya? Civil war
Yemen? Coup
Afghanistan? Invaded
Iran? Next on list

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:36 | 5769537 The_Prisoner
The_Prisoner's picture

Except they weren't necessarily "USSR Client States" when it happened.

 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:43 | 5769567 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Remember the old Eurabia arguments that started appearing around 9/11? Funny how the Arabia part got torched and it seems like the Eur part is next.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:50 | 5769584 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

WTF are you talking about ?

Iraq is FUBAR ! Far from being an useful US ally, it is ready to become an Iranian client state.

Syria is open game, but so far Assad is succesfuly keeping US out, and Iran in.

Lybia is FUBAR, nobody controls shit in there.

Yemen ? Yeah, coup alright, in as much as the US is vacating its embassy there... another US FUBAR.

Afghanistan ? Pretty much back to its initial situation, prior to US intervention. Whoever wants it, can have it...

Iran ? Is about to become the ME local power broker able to control not only the Gulf but also some part of Eastern Mediterranean, with some not so discreet Russian help. Good luck fighting it...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:28 | 5769729 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

The Chinese are, I believe, winning contracts to maintain Iraq's oil installations. 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:10 | 5769413 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Stick your wars up your ass

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:38 | 5769535 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

We should take all those people who use violence and coercion to terrorize, maim and murder their fellow mortal and stick them on an island far away with their fucking drones, nukes, missiles, chemical and bacterial weapons and let them go at each other to their heart's content, but that will never happen as long as they have lackeys who will do their bidding.

In the end, they will provoke people like myself to violence to protect them from taking my children and pressing them into their hellish causes.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:10 | 5769414 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

And of course, none of this involves Israel.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:26 | 5769496 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Psst. And Russia looked the other way.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:51 | 5769989 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Well the Tribe does rule the world, why state the obvious?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:12 | 5769423 nmewn
nmewn's picture

So the head of the Russian Duma is lying on his hashtag account and the plausible scenario is for the Russians to give high tech weaponry to the Chi-Coms that can be used against naval assets.

Anyones...naval assets.

Smart Power! ;-)

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:17 | 5769456 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yup, there is no love lost on that very long border, and the only nation to pick up lots of territory by armed aggression since the end of WWII, is China.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:25 | 5769493 steelrules
steelrules's picture

You guys are so 70's. Don't you think the old guard has passed on? There may still be tensions but I think they may see a common enemy now.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:08 | 5769659 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Lack of imagination. Pretty common in contemporary America...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:55 | 5769756 nmewn
nmewn's picture

If you're sittin around thinkin St.Pootie isn't in this moment weighing exactly what I just said could be possible tomorrow by the actions of today, you're the one with a lack of imagination.

Or one of you is insane.

Which is it?

/////

Chess, is not a democratic endeavor...lol.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 03:01 | 5770228 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

You think too much of yourself. I'm pretty sure Putin has better things to do than "weighing" your silly ideas... An alliance between Russia and China is already established and will only grow in the future. Add Iran to the mix, for more fun. It is a reality because it is the pragmatic thing to do (as in it serves well both parties). Ideology is dead, pragmatism is the future. This is what the Americans and the West Europeans cannot understand, and why they look so stupid lately... EU is, per their own saying, a "political project". As for America, it got to the point where politics already replaced economics. The West is so FUBAR...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 03:52 | 5770316 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

China and Russia are allies of necessity right now.  We're the big boogieman right now for both of them.  When you've got 1.3 billion people in a country roughly the size of the United States and you don't produce all of your own food, how long until Siberia and the resources it holds start to look inviting?  It's probably not the best farmland in the world, but it is going to be better than nothing.  And lets not forget the water.  If Russia is unwilling or unable to make something work, the status of Russia and China being allies will change. 

 

Putin wouldn't be considering what nmewn is talking about because nmewn is talking about it, Putin would be considering it because he is not a fucking moron.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:39 | 5771691 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Russia won't have any problem in nuking China out of existence if it tries something. Their arsenals are no match. The Chinese know that too well...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:22 | 5769703 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Chinese have to see what West is doing to Russia and know they are next. Enemy of enemy is my friend. The bloodthirsty banksters and neocons won't stop until they are stopped

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:25 | 5770071 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

well said.

It's our idiots that are pushing them into action

and China has inked and begun building the biggest and longest energy contracts in the world

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:30 | 5769746 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

Difference is China will trade with Russia as equals to access Russia's mineral wealth. US wants to stand over eveyone and 'steal' resources.  

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:04 | 5769847 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

 

"Difference is China will trade with Russia as equals to access Russia's mineral wealth. The Jewish Mafia/Biblical Pharisees want to stand over eveyone and 'steal' resources." 

 

Fixt that for you.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:13 | 5769428 Spungo
Spungo's picture

We should turn that entire region into a parking lot.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:19 | 5769695 Shipwrecked
Shipwrecked's picture

In this new age that parking lot might extend a bit farther then you think. Members of the couch brigade just might get front row for this show.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:32 | 5769752 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

The Russians and Chinese have lots of really big nukes.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 02:19 | 5770238 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Watch out for a parking spot poping up in your beloved bedroom, you dumbass !

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:14 | 5769437 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

i hate the fucking US...

its abundant brainwashed and uniformed masses and its fucking banker controlled government...

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:21 | 5769476 steelrules
steelrules's picture

I like Americans, it's their fucking government and bankers that need to be liquidated.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:30 | 5769510 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yeah...us americans r n no way complcit by way of ignorance, apathy, and inaction.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:34 | 5769531 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Are you honestly suggesting that anything meaningful can be done about it?  Do you actually think protests matter?  Do you actually think "voting" matters?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:21 | 5769674 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

who the fuck is talking about protest...

talk about the average americnas football team in a bad way and he's ready to start a fucking brawl over it...

but when it comes to their banker controlled government which is and has been forever fucking them in the ass they dont wanna hear it let alone take up arms to defend themselves and the liberty they no longer have...

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:52 | 5769820 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yeah, its not like Russia has no central bank or oligarchs or a history of gulags, dictatorships, commisars & czars...lol.

Fucking idiot.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:56 | 5769831 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

u know i try to refrain from name calling on the web cause its the behavior of cowardly bitch ass mother fuckers...

why the fuck should i care about what is in Russia when i live here n the "land  of the FREE and home of the BRAVE...'

bitch ass mother fucker.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:00 | 5769842 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Dear dickless wonder, you revealed yourself...

"...but when it comes to their banker controlled government which is and has been forever fucking them in the ass..."

You are pointing out something foreign...to you...not a part of or you would have said "our" and "us".

Fuck you Ivan.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:05 | 5769859 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

He just may be a little cholesterol deficient, be easy on him.

Miffed;-)

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:07 | 5769867 nmewn
nmewn's picture

He should have laid off the vodka earlier, he wouldn't have made that mistake ;-)

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:15 | 5769888 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

yeah ok genius...have a good one - dick that is.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:31 | 5769933 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Any explanation as to why you chose the words them & theirs as opposed our & us? And homey don't swing with dicks.

Seeya in the morning with whatever balls you have left...Ivan.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:18 | 5769897 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Yes, there is truth in drink isn't there? And some can hold their secrets better than others. Fortunately for me I fear no disturbing revelation when I drink because I will stand by what I say when I am sober.

Miffed;-)

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:05 | 5769861 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Hey genius. Pop your head out of the basement tomorrow on what ever rock your on, let me know if your darling .gub is not controlled some form of bankster. Also, at least the U.S. still has guns, not that liberal technocrats are not trying to outlaw them.

I'm going back to my football game.......

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 02:21 | 5770240 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

If one wished to do something like that he must be patient and wait until the time is right. Otherwise, they will meet any resistance with the utmost brutality. They will annihilate anyone who tries to stand against them and probably all of their kin, if they can. Once they have finally overreached themselves, once they are embroiled in disasters on several fronts and are weakened, that is the time to kick them; when they're down. They'll appeal to patriotism, they'll call for solidarity in this time of crisis, they'lll point to an enemy and tell us we can settle our differences when we've defended ourselves, they will promise everything, but they must not be listened to. They have slipped our control and they have to be put down like rabid dogs. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 04:50 | 5770365 jaxville
jaxville's picture

  It's sad that people can really remain in blissful ignorance for  so long.  As long as things "seem" to work, life goes on....

 

  The public is going to get a great big wake up call. I just hope it isn't a mushroom cloud.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:18 | 5769689 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

I think voting matters.  George Washington was fighting for the right to vote.  "No taxation without representation"!  The problem is that only 1/4 of USA citizens vote in many elections, so it's easy for the 1% to get their men in.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:02 | 5769846 X_Weatherman
X_Weatherman's picture

The U.S. 2 party system doesn't provide anyone worth voting for. 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:49 | 5769987 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Look when only 10% to 15% of the rank and file of the  nominally less authoritarian party, the GOP, actually vote in party primaries, it is no wonder how little influence those so called rank and file matter.  Of course voting matters, but it matters not when a tiny percentage care enough to even bother to let's say vote out incumbents if one is unaware of candidates.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 04:52 | 5770368 jaxville
jaxville's picture

It matters when people begin begin to vote with their feet and with their guns.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 03:57 | 5770320 Alvin Fernald
Alvin Fernald's picture

Protests matter, voting not so much.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 07:45 | 5770457 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Stopping participation matters. Where is the general strike? I've been on my own work stoppage for some time now.  ... no one seems to have noticed yet.

Seriously though, people of conscience, for micro and macro reasons should find a way to stop participating, go Galt, take away your labor and resources and live happily ever after.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:52 | 5769601 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Sousa, I would never call for a civil war but that's the only way left, as I see it.

Sure people take time to wake up out of their stupor, most just want to live and let live. but the attack on ordinary people is now becoming so blatant that even the most bamboozled are waking up.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:24 | 5769489 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Freedom fries anyone?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:39 | 5769545 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

And I hate people who think this is a localized problem because everything is just peachy where they live-- a land filled with nothing except virtuous, involved savants such as themselves.

Death to evil European ideas that have infected the Great Republic.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:17 | 5769443 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Fret not, America!

With brilliant men the likes of Obama and Kerry, who've been honed by the fire of battle (and Ivy League semester exams!), it's simply unpossible that screwing with an unsophisticated 'Autistic' like Vlad Putin could possibly go wrong.

Sleep well.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:17 | 5769454 steelrules
steelrules's picture

The hubris and corruption of the global elites in western banking and western governments have brought us to a point, more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis.

How this will play out I can't say, but I do know that countries are starting to pick sides.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:51 | 5769596 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

i think i can appreciate what you're saying, but avarice doesn't actually use a compass, or not a typical one... sides are being picked, and those who monitor network traffic know well that lines are now forming against a particularly malicious 2000+ yr. old misnomer... all i can say is Godspeed, and may he deliver all of you :-) even you asses trading in this market, doing nothing more than empowering your enemy

PS - real estate in the country is sensibly priced

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:20 | 5769470 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

How about giving Iran some ICBM nukes that will piss Isreal saudi and the US in one single swipe

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:24 | 5769477 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Sounds like a party!

 

Who is going to bring the fried chicken and unstoppable supercavitating torpedoes? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shkval

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 02:00 | 5770207 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Leeeerrrooooyyy Jenkins, that's who! :>D

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:26 | 5769482 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

Putin is winning by the mere fact merkel is in a corner touting his interests to Obama - Obama is check mated on new arms or the game escalates in EU to divide from US further - they will be poodles until risk of war then they split and they start riots all over EU - The Ugly American Riots!!!

and the Separatist are moving the ball - why would he give up Assad under those circumstances?

all he needs to do with SA is say its going to be pay back time for Bandar move in SA Checknya sponsorship

 

he has a lot of cards to play - and the deck is not even 30% out of the shoe

this is a complete shit show - th clowns in DC never see beyond two chess moves forward while Putin plays three dimensional chess

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:35 | 5769536 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Merkel got really nervous when she was discussing diplomatic ties with the US in the joint press conference.  She kept refering to the past, which in my book means she isn't looking forward optimistically.  I think she is about to break Obama's puny little heart.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:25 | 5769919 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Or maybe it is just more deception, ala, false paradigm, as in, more red versus blue.  I'm not saying it is but if you can believe that people within the US gov't were at least complicit in 9/11 then why would it be so hard to imagine an even bigger treachery?

Everything Obama does fails, epically.  Surely a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut.  Putin seems to succeed everytime, even in utterly ridiculous ways.  Coincidence?

Doubts I have.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:25 | 5769494 will ling
will ling's picture

speculation is not "how".

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:26 | 5769498 Kamehameha
Kamehameha's picture
Liberty, when it begins to take root, is a plant of rapid growth.
George Washington
Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:31 | 5769504 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The collapse is demand driven.  The KSA hasn't increased production at all.  They have been pumping 9m b/d for years.  This collapse is demand driven and it started showing when JPM and GS took out their oil longs last summer.  JPM et al had been propping up the oil market for years, thus keeping the dollar cheap while buying toxic debt via POMO operations and then shoveling it to the Fed.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:04 | 5769636 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

Soul Glow

Not demand. Saudi Arabia selling oil at the lower and lower prices is geopolitical driven, mainly against Russia and Iran. The oil long positions abandoned it is because these financial institutions had inside information of what was about to happen.

 

What comes next is what should be of our interest: Cultural crash between the have and have not.       

 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:42 | 5769794 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

World production has been relatively flat since 2005.  US gas demand has been decreasing since 2005.  US gas demand makes up for an extremely large part of world demand.  So demand is down and production is flat.  

What happens to the price?  What happens to P*?

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:29 | 5769931 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

She, sigh, has a point.  If I have an oz of gold valued at roughly $1,200 and offer to sell it to you at $600, what do you think the price is?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:14 | 5770042 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

Soul Glow

What most people fail at is: You are using debt (to be paid back later) to generate energy to be consumed today.

 

By Futilitist: There is just no way to financialize energy at this level, meaning that, in physics terms, all debts are due the moment the energy is used. Civilization has never, ever existed under these conditions. It simply can’t. That is why collapse will be sudden and extremely rapid.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opecs-production-outlook/comment-page-1/#comment-492392

 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:27 | 5769923 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Are you using official numbers similar to GDP, inflation, and unemployment?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:29 | 5770078 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Soul Glow & Escrava Isaura;

You speak intelligently since you either read or are experienced in these industries or management of projects of some kind. Government people could speak with similar authority, but somehow I doubt that. In either case you make some good points for others to address.

I'm not much of an investor, so don't expect me to make a good point here.

- Have you considered the Black Market production of Petro (I'm thinking black market production of natural gas doesn't matter to the US Market)
- In the USA I always assume the worse about black market labor and black market consumption (of non-durable goods, consumer goods)

- Criticize me if you want, I think Oil and Gas Supplies (world Wide) have been high since 2009 (check EIA & OPEC), I think MSM and TPTB are blowing wind up our skirts

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:31 | 5769514 SuperVinci
SuperVinci's picture

No More Clinton family.

No More Bush family.

 

Just say no.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:05 | 5769639 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

Convince people that the "news" they are basing their worldview on is propaganda and lies.  Step one.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:43 | 5769970 falconflight
falconflight's picture

There is an endless supply of Bushes and Clintons; it's call the Democratic and Republican (DemPublican) Party.  No more Dempublican Party.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 00:56 | 5770120 steveharless
steveharless's picture

Next election the Only Bush I wanna see at the White house, are the ones that grow in the garden!

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:31 | 5769517 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

This article reaches really really far and has little credibility.  ZH really wants to push the "The Russians Are Coming" alarm.  Just like ZH did by writting articles that stated the mysterious sub (never found) was in fact Russian and that distress calls were intercepted (was confirmed that none were made).

So Iran is going to jump up and attack because Russia asks it to?  No way.

And Russia is going actively participate in the war to back Iran?  Ridiculous.  Russia will sell arms only.  Putin cancelled the contract to sell modern anti aircraft missiles to Iran.  Iran will get the backing Syria and Libya got. 

Russia may share technology with China making it more capable if fighting the US?  To me that shows these two are not that tight or united.  If the big WW3 is just around the bend and China and Russia are allies (as often claimed) then why does Russia withhold technology?  Very stupid to see WW3 coming and not help you allies get prepared far in advance. 

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:42 | 5769560 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Except for one small detail.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:58 | 5771128 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

Nothing in that article makes me think Iran is going to attack SA.  Are you pushing the absurd to make a point of what cannot happen?

IF you want to inisinuate there will covert action I could accept that.  But an overt attack by Iran would be just about the perfect excuse for it's own shock and awe type attack from the US/NATO.  Russia would have no justification for activly defending Iran (and would not regardless).  TPTB would love for Iran to give an excuse.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 22:23 | 5769706 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

I didn't think this article was alarmist.  It seems sensible that, if Russia feels threatened enough, they might sell military technology to China.  The usual problem is when one Great Power gets too much power, and decides it can "take down" everyone else.  Germany and Japan in WW2, for instance.  Insurance against that might be for lesser powers to share technology.  Sure, nobody WANTS to share military technology, but sometimes they might feel they have no alternative.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 23:17 | 5769892 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Stumpy4516,  you are a fortunate bastard to get beaten down the great Tyler Durden. For this I gave you an up arrow.

Tue, 02/10/2015 - 21:38 | 5769544 Alberich
Alberich's picture

Is it possible NATO assets are trapped in the Debaltsovo pocket, and all of the haggling over the last few days is over their ransom? If so Russia just raised the stakes even higher.

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