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Speculators Have Never Been As Long VIX As They Are Today
It appears the management team at FRBNY have decided that manipulating the US equity market via selling VIX has run its course (which started when Brian Sack left and Simon Potter took over) . As of this week - there has never been a bigger speculative long VIX position (implicitly bearish stocks). One wonders what the consequences are?
VIX Futures net long position has never been higher...
Perhaps this is why?
Or this?
Or this?
and implied correlation appears to be getting a little more anxious about crash potential (h/t @JaredWoodward for chart)
h/t AY
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Everyone knows there's going to be a crash. So why is anyone still investing?
Because no one wants to miss out on the biggest bull run of all times?
Because no one wants to miss out of all of the gains?
Because the Fed has our back?
Because a crash in UnPossible?
Because it's Tuesday!!
+1 <3 tuesday >.<
Another reason:
Shorts were buying the ask all day today...
long VIX.....I've been doing my part.
Q: Is a "crash" good for American stocks?
A: Does a bear shit in the woods?
no
some of us poop
on the iceberg..
The HFTs have been using the VIX as their primary tool to push the market higher.
It is the Fuel to Burn the Shorts, which also pushes the market higher.
This article is great. But the market can be irrational longer than shorts can remain solvent.
Are the longs euphoric yet. Seems that Goldman and the rest of the HFTs don't think so.
WARNING: BTFD still Works. Eh. I got burnt and went CASH ONLY.
Good Stuff Today Zero
Was long VIX until this afternoon. More speculative longs than anytime in history and it barely moves the needle. Made a small profit - took it out before it went south. Remember: The powers that be have all the power in the world now. The markets will do what THEY want.
Doug, no guts no glory..well it's a good saying an all.
That's fine as long as you're trading someone else's money.
What's that other saying, the one about bold traders and old traders...?
I have been doing my part for years. My parts are shriveled and broken.
So let's see, the specs are net long vol, so that must mean the commercials are net short. Guess who usually wins this one...
Spec's are the house - they always net win.
Randolph Duke: Money isn't everything, Mortimer.
Mortimer Duke: Oh, grow up.
Randolph Duke: Mother always said you were greedy.
Mortimer Duke: She meant it as a compliment.
Becaue they are greedy and have the hubris to believe that they will be the one who gets out of the burning room before the others smell smoke.
BTFD and make the money. Head and shoulder rock formation says it will go green tomorrow when greece takes the money and they acert another crisis stawks go for a record run. I got a job selling cars and man the ownr says the economy is kicking ass and I will b making a shitload selling these cars credit markets are wide open and jobs are flowing likecandy. So no crash happy days are here again dosnt that sound great yall?
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
let's ask Brian Williams.
We would if we could but he has just informed us on twitter that he has been taken hostage by ISIS... #freebrianwilliams
Let's ask brian
about bldg. 7
U.S. Macro comp to SPX 200pts... this is now a crash? Too funny. You've now assured that all will climb up to meet SPX making this "public". BTFATH soon
That's the record long? The record short on that graph is 5x larger. wtf?
Whoever sold those contracts will make sure they will expire worthless. Not bearish.
its too funny ....
the consequences are that the market cannot go down.
think about it -- there are so many people who effectively have levered short positiions
that every time the markets experience some real selling,
so many people cash out and take profits that it starts back up again ....
Betting on the crash has become "the crowded trade"....perhpas the most crowded trade in history .....
Really. Most crowded trade in history. You really think that How many working and retired people have money in 491 k or have pensions. How many of those are in this so called most crowded trade in history
there is unstable situations from the ME to ukraine to greece and EU to the oil patch and china, the market goes up cause they keep pumping the only thing they can..some think it's looking ready to turn over...if so you might want to be in vix tvix uvxy tza you get the idea.
That's right Tyler give us some nice perty graffs so your believers can bust themselves going short once more.
Remember hedgers, this time it is all coming down.
Yes, THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT.
No, its not different this time. It's moar of the same, which is why it will fail. You're just too impatient for this *market; give it time. Read Hillary's new book and get your nails done, Barry...
Off topic - to share If a Springstein fan. I listened to a very high quality Bruce & E Street band from February 1975 recorded in Philly. 7 months later they released Born to Run album.
http://thekey.xpn.org/2015/02/05/bruce-springsteen-main-point/
fuck bruce springstein
Once the VIX explodes I WILL BE BACK!!! Just like my friends Randolph & Mortimer...If it can happen to them....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PiTi9ktVos
Correct me if I'm wrong. If so many participants already hold VIX long positions and the market corrects downward considerably, who is left to buy more VIX in order to drive VIX valuations higher?
Would be smarter if nobody held any VIX and collapse or crash were completely unthinkable.
Everybody and their mother knows by now the market is shit, it will crash again, only question is when. The VIX has been in a very consistant range for several weeks now, it makes sense to be long vol right here. The market doesn't have to crash to make a 20% scalp on the vix.... and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know the DOW can rally 300 in the morning on a Greek fix in which case the long vols get roasted. I don't think it means much one way or the other in this Mickey Mouse market.
Nah, gotta have the "hedges" on while drifting towards the big signal 200k after which the nuclear false flags can start rollin.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9hCqMVIcAInv3B.png:large
Or one big ripfest might be in order.
Or the NY Fed is the one with that long position and the "bang the Vix"_manipulation algo is a gift to all primary dealers who are short and a sure fire way to manipulate rigged markets.
A crash is just an amazing opportunity to BTFD
the vix will go up when the fed is the one long vix and all the shorts are broke as broke.
the money the fed makes scalping the vix will be suddenly and very quickly used to take the opposite side of the trade one day, the same as the swiss central bank made a HUGE KILLING fucking the market , after having made a little money for years scalping the market slowly.
central banks collect taxes both by inflation, and trading against the public. BIG FISH EAT SMALL FISH.
Just algos masturbating, this is what happens when there are no more retail investors...wallstreet skinned retail one time too many, no one believes in the market anymore