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Complete Preview Of Today's Eurogroup Meeting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As noted earlier, the key macro event on today's calendar, and one which will likely be the origin of significant volatility, is the Eurogroup meeting to decide Greece's fate starting in a few hours where Yanis Varoufakis and his European Finance Minister peers will attempt to resolve two diametrically opposite and seemingly uncompromisable positions. Here is what to expect courtesy of RanSquawk.

Greek FM to meet with leaders of the Eurogroup and discuss options for filling their financing gap

Greece expected to propose a bridge loan and reject an extension of their current bailout. Leaders to arrive from 1530GMT

TODAY'S TIMELINE

  • 1530GMT - All arrivals & doorsteps
  • 1730GMT - Roundtable
  • 1900GMT - Press Conference

LONGER TIMELINE

  • End of Feb 2015 - Greece's EUR 172bln bailout is due to conclude
  • March - EUR 1.4bln payment is due from Greece to the IMF
  • 14th July 2015 - EUR 11.5bln Greek bond redemption due

RECENT COMMENTS

Overnight Greek PM Tsipras said that Greece is to negotiate a loan agreement and not a bailout adding they will not ask for an extension to the bailout or further austerity measures, no matter how much Germany asks.

OPTIONS

  1. A credit line - Greece would have to apply for an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (ECCL) from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
  2. Issue short-term T-Bills - Under the current bailout the ECB imposed a cap on the volume of issuance from Greece which means the country must not raise more than EUR 15bln. The Greek finance minister proposed to the EU last week raising EUR 10bln through T-Bills as bridge financing and proposed raising the EUR 15bln ceiling to EUR 25bln however this has since been rejected by EU officials.
  3. Debt swap - Greece have previously stated that they would request a menu of debt swaps and two new bonds; 1. Indexed linked bond to nominal economic growth which would replace the bailout loans, 2. Perpetual bonds which would replace Greek bonds owned by the ECB.
  4. Bailout extension - This option is the one favoured by Germany but rejected by Greece as a bailout extension would come with conditions, namely further austerity for Greece. The new Greek government is extremely opposed to austerity imposed by the EU and are unlikely to support this option
 

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Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:54 | 5770544 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Bring it on BITCHEZ

Today is the day we will found out if Greece is Serious about the change

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:56 | 5770546 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

These are the days of our EU lives....

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:57 | 5770554 unrulian
unrulian's picture

everyone's ready for a big "coiler"

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:02 | 5770567 Looney
Looney's picture

Grexit turns into Grussia ;-)

Looney

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:06 | 5770576 USisCorrupt
USisCorrupt's picture

Don't forget to lower the seat & FLUSH!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:17 | 5770595 jaap
jaap's picture

Well, looks like they take all the time to negotiate such an important decission.

Barely an hour....

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:21 | 5770606 rccalhoun
rccalhoun's picture

timeline-

leak exit

deny rumor

announce exit

start rumor of reconciliation

deny rumor

announce another big meeting

volley ultimatums

extend loans  

spx all time highs

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 11:54 | 5771372 balanced
balanced's picture

I hope you're wrong (though sadly I'd put money on your timeline). Still crossing my fingers and hoping Varoufakis watched '300' last night.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:42 | 5771722 kingstukie
kingstukie's picture

Na. Just leave it there.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:43 | 5770699 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Spandex turns into Spina

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:45 | 5770712 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Gold andSilver down in London - check!

Gold ans Silver down on the open in New York - check!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:04 | 5770571 saints51
saints51's picture

I will be the Debbie Downer and say prepare to be disappointed. Same owner of both teams means only one winner. Hope I am wrong and a Grexit occurs. I will only celebrate the exit when it is official. We have had plenty of shows in our life to understand the game.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:41 | 5770691 Truther
Truther's picture

Right on. Won't believe it till I see it this time. The sheeple always end up paying the price and it's time for Greece to rebel out of the Merkel brothel.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:56 | 5770776 saints51
saints51's picture

We will see. Greeks talked a lot of shit. Lets see if they come out swinging or listen to the Germans and sit the fuck down.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:05 | 5770828 julian_n
julian_n's picture

It will be the German sheeple that pay . . again - after Barry has told Mutti that he really does not want Vlad in Greece undoing all the hard work he has done to lay that pipeline.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 11:03 | 5771156 SnatchnGrab
SnatchnGrab's picture

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:57 | 5770552 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Nope, pretend and extend is the rule of the day.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:30 | 5770635 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

but not the rule of tomorrow.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:57 | 5770553 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I can almost hear the slight ping of a can being kicked down the road. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:04 | 5770570 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

I'm hoping that's actually the sound of a can hitting a wall...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:44 | 5770703 unrulian
Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:42 | 5770700 Truther
Truther's picture

You're not wrong, it may have just been kicked and hard.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:58 | 5771129 Unix
Unix's picture

Philo, nah, that is just my computer you pinged!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 08:58 | 5770555 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I recall way back last month when even the chance of 'Syriza' getting elected was the worst case scenario.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:33 | 5770657 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I bet way back then you had to walk uphill to school in the snow both was for 10 miles as well.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:48 | 5770728 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

No, that was our fathers who did that.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:01 | 5770561 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Greece isn't interested in the stock "market" levels, it's interested in its future.

DavidC

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:12 | 5770562 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

I predict an announcement of can kicking that makes no sense, can't work and solves nothing, followed by a face melting 300 point vertical rip in the Dow on light volume that bonds, oil and currencies "aren't buying". What do I win?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:12 | 5770589 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Well, buy Dow and see what you win.

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:20 | 5770605 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

A raise of 200 lei a month.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:59 | 5770785 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Greece could have already made a billion or two inside trading their own announcements...so why don't they do like the insiders on Wall Street.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:07 | 5770578 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Always a comfort to know you've got Lloyd Bankfiend in your corner. s/c

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:08 | 5770580 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

A Loan Bridge to Nowhere!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:11 | 5770585 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Discussions of a Greek Russian pipeline should help relax the discussions

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:13 | 5770590 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

Light bulb, meet cockroaches.

These people really shouldn't put themselves on display like that. It'll merely serve to highlight how politically naked they are, when their time would clearly be far better spent frantically slapping some duct tape on contingency plans for resurrecting their respective currencies.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:16 | 5770593 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

No matter what happens today, it's sure to knock $10-$30 off the "gold" price.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:25 | 5770614 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah....just try to take possession....good luck with that.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:08 | 5771463 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Right on cue.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:22 | 5770601 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So while playing 'Layer random data ontop of each other', I found this entertaining.  Guess WTI prices fell due to the FRB stopped buying fwd contracts.  Just layer the FRB balance sheet with US Crude production

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:24 | 5770611 hotrod
hotrod's picture

All Greeks remember this.  Thomas Paine   American Revolution.

 

These are the times that try men's souls; the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:48 | 5770726 falak pema
falak pema's picture

+ 1000

If only America remembered its roots instead of eating the low hanging fruits of other people's vineyards like the neo-con fox and oligarchy wolf it has become.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:56 | 5770773 Unix
Unix's picture

neoliberals are even more guilty my friend, the progressives ARE the wolf in sheeps clothing, dont fool yourself, they are all corrupt to the gills, power hungry mongrels, wanting to control us.

NOTICE I BLAME THEM ALL...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:28 | 5770628 observer007
observer007's picture

###

 

Watch News LIVE on Reuters HERE:

 

http://tersee.com/#!f=de,en&q=reuters&t=text

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:32 | 5770640 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Honestly, who gives a shit outside of a short term trade?  A bunch of banks, freed from any honest accounting constraints, will all get bailed out and then claim record earnings because they were all on the "right side of the trade".  All currencies will be pushed into the desired trading bands using leveraged printing press backed FOREX interventions within a week of whatever happens.  The real economy will not bite on fake CB imposed numbers.  Commerce will continue to implode because as far as the real economy is concerned, there is no functioning banking system, and no one wants to exchange currency at baloney rigged rates.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:32 | 5770652 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

untuck your shirt! join the revolution comrades!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:54 | 5770759 Unix
Unix's picture

Lone wolf

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:34 | 5770661 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

My understanding is as follows:

1. Greece wants something drastic done to its debt.

2. Germany is reluctant to cut Greece any slack as it will cuase others to put their hand out.

3. Greece is still seeking war damages from the Germans.

 

Therefore my solution is:

1, Get Germany to pay and guarantee the interest on the loan as an interim measure to resolving the war damages claim. Say for a period of 5 years to see if anything changes.

This will put Greece to the test to see if she is truly capable of having a solid economy when it has no debt servicing and when it has arrested its growing debt and deficit situation.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:29 | 5770992 youngman
youngman's picture

The problem is greece cant even pay their government employees right now..they need more loans to make payroll...that is the problem.....they are broke and they do not want to pay any of their debts...and then they want more debts....good luck

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:36 | 5770667 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The can gets larger each time. Just like US total debt and deficits.

Just buying time agan.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:50 | 5770736 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

The euro has become so hollow, they can't even buy time with it.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:38 | 5770677 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

 Spandex

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:42 | 5770697 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And this is just tiny Greece. What a show this will be if Spain and Italy go the same route. Already got my seat and am all tucked in.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 09:53 | 5770750 Unix
Unix's picture

And don't forget the popcorn, and please don't burn it. burnt popcorns smells like shit!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:13 | 5770748 Unix
Unix's picture

Not even King Arthur (round table) can save this puppy!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:11 | 5770887 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Perpetual bonds,  Buy one and it pays for ever and ever.

untill it can't.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:13 | 5770896 AE911Truth
AE911Truth's picture

Government issuance of Debt for money is the biggest fraud in the history of mankind.

As the FIRST INTERNATIONAL LICENSED COURT of Human Rights, Dedicated to Rule of Law FOR THE PEOPLE, the Arbitration Court of International Justice (ACIJ) is the forum to prosecute the Biggest Fraud In The History Of Mankind.

http://www.justice4humanity.org

http://tinyurl.com/mmkhrss

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:14 | 5770911 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

What are those short-term-Tsipras-bills ?

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:18 | 5770929 R19
R19's picture

Another reason why Zero Hedge is awesome - 1900 GMT. I should have gone drinking last night.  All of this central bank uncertainty definitely makes trading more difficult.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:44 | 5771066 Unix
Unix's picture

But just think, at least you don't have a hangover today, so you can watch it without a headache!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:30 | 5771001 Unix
Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:37 | 5771037 irongator
irongator's picture

Greece is that tiny stone at the top of the mountain. It started rolling a few seconds ago and already it has started more stones rolling. I am at the bottom of the mountain starting to see some movement up there and am thinking that I need to run up the other mountain and watch it all unfold in safety. Unfortunately, 99% of people are at the base of the mountain having a picnic with their headphones on, blissfully unware of the danger above them. This could end badly.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:43 | 5771061 Unix
Unix's picture

Better watch out, the other mountain has problems too.  Under every rock my friend...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 10:44 | 5771063 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

whatever happens SP500 closes green

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 11:05 | 5771167 SnatchnGrab
SnatchnGrab's picture

I expect more of the same. As Greece debt-spirals into oblivion, folks are more than happy to lend them money to assist in their national suicide. 

Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. Only way to be sure.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 11:30 | 5771284 cyclist
cyclist's picture

All this EU/Greece drama and standard playbook is in operation.  Gold down, Oil down, Silver down,  the US Equity markets are the new safe haven. Thats it, Thats all...........move along, nothing to see here

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 11:57 | 5771313 koutsou
koutsou's picture

hi from a greek girl currently in Italy. I will be a spoiler, in the greek sites they mention that we'll have to wait since the official eurogroup 16 february.My prediction the will reach an agreement after all this drama, the katharsis will come (as in the ancient tragedies)

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:15 | 5771506 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Fuck the moneychangers, both Euro and Amero!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!