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The Euro’s Exponential Decay

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

I don’t know about you, but I’m having a ball reading up on the preparations for the Wednesday/Thursday talks between Greece and .. well, everybody else. German FinMin Schäuble proudly declares that it’s do what I tell you or you’re finished, Greek FinMin Varoufakis says prepare for a clash. Greek advisors Lazard say a $100 billion debt reduction sounds reasonable, and some anonymous EU official says Lazard are incompetent and counterproductive (not smart, that).

When will the Brussels luxury cubicles understand that the Greek people have voted down their approach fair and square? That they voted down the government that made deals with the Troika for the very and explicit reason that they made those deals in the first place, and that telling the newly elected government to stick by those deals regardless is a corruption of democracy? So far, all the EU has (anyone notice how silent the IMF has been?) is hubris, bluster and chest-thumping.

They play politicians, but Syriza plays real life. Tsipras and Varoufakis stand up for real people, while Schäuble and Dijsselbloem and their ilk stand up only for themselves. And then pretend, in front of their bathroom mirrors and the news cameras, that they protect their own people against the greedy Greeks. As for the 50%+ of young Greeks who have no future, or the countless elderly who go without basic health care, too bad and boo hoo hoo.

The European Union is no Salvation Army, after all. In Europe, everybody takes care of their own, not the others. It’s a union in name only. That’s why Germany, France, Holland bailed out their own banks after these lost big on wagers in Athens, and want the Greek people to pay for those bailouts – at least the union was good for that -.

Claiming the Greeks all borrowed so much and lived it up way beyond their stature, while in reality people are dying who could be saved with simple treatments still easily available in Berlin, Paris and Amsterdam. Greece, make no mistake, has become the third world, whether your atlas confirms it or not.

Their MO is that banks are more important than people, Germany is more important than Greece, and the Greek people are less important than the great EU project that – and they actually still believe this- will make everybody richer. Only, to Tsipras the Greek people are more important. And so the new Greek leader’s partners in the European Union threaten to make things even worse than they already are.

It’s not just hubris and bluster, it’s pure impotence. If the talks this week don’t provide a solution, or a realistic proposal for one, Greece will be very close to leaving the eurozone. Syriza will not agree to continue with the deals the Samaras technocrats have agreed with the Troika, for the simple reason that their voters have trusted them with the mission to throw out those deals. Otherwise, they might as well have stayed with Samaras, and the elections would have no meaning.

Brussels and Berlin – and Paris and Amsterdam – have such trouble understanding what democracy means, they prefer to ignore it. But it was them who saddled their own voters with the debt which results from wagers on Greece gone awry, it wasn’t the Greek population. The entire western world has elected to not restructure the debt of its banking system. And don’t be confused, that’s not an economic choice, it’s a political one.

A lot more money has been thrown at maintaining the banking system, hopelessly bankrupt as it is no matter what, than would have been needed to guarantee the bank accounts of all citizens and all small businesses. Now the banks are still there, and so is their debt, but the people are sinking into an endlessly dark pool. Not an economic choice, a political one.

What we will see envelop this week is a game in which accusations will grow ever more wild and grotesque, but also a game in which Greece in the end will not do what everyone still seems to expect it to do. Because that would require for Syriza to betray the people who voted for them. Not going to happen.

The underlying – but we’re way past that by now – problem was explained quite well by UofMaryland professor Peter Morici:

Greek Revolt Over Austerity Is Long Overdue

Europe has few of the mechanisms that facilitate adjustment in the United States, which has a single currency across a similarly wide range of competitive circumstances. A single language permits workers to go where the jobs are, whereas most Greeks and Italians are stuck where they are born. New Yorkers’ taxes subsidize public works, health care and the like in Mississippi through the federal government in ways the European Commission cannot accomplish.

 

Germany uses its size and influence to resist changes in EU institutions that could alter fiscal arrangements. Hence, the Greeks and other southern Europeans were forced to borrow heavily from private lenders in the north – mostly through their commercial banks – to provide public services, health care and similar services that were hardly overly generous when measured by German standards.

 

All this kept German factories humming and German unemployment low. When the financial crisis and meltdown of global banking made private borrowing no longer viable, Greece and other southern states were forced to seek loans directly from Germany and other northern governments. Bailouts implemented by Germany through the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission required labor market reforms, cuts in wages and pensions, higher taxes, and less government spending. All to restore Greek competitiveness, growth and solvency – and all have absolutely failed.

The eurozone is by design and of necessity a predatory ‘union’. The US would be too, to an even greater extent than it is today, if it didn’t have a transfer of federal tax revenue from New York to Nowhere, Nebraska. And it wouldn’t be a union anymore.

So you know, for me, I’m fine with Greece blowing it up. There’s nothing good left from the initial idea that gave birth to the EU. It’s devolved into something utterly ugly, in which fat Germans driving their Mercs and Beamers down the autobahn can yell at their car stereos that those lazy Greeks must pay their due. Which stems from Merkel et al bailing out Deutsche Bank’s insanely outsized derivatives portfolios.

The whole thing is so morally bankrupt, it’s really insane that we’re still trying to have a serious discussion about it. The whole thing, the entire global banking system, is as morally bankrupt as it is financially. And we keep on believing that it matters what Berlin tells Athens to do. Our best hope is that Varoufakis refuses to be told what to do. It’s not as if we did anything about it, after all. We let others do our jobs and watch them do it on TV.

Here’s a prediction for you: the eurozone is ‘past its half-life’, or more correctly, it has over 50% of its existence behind it. It won’t last another 15 years. And perhaps much less than that. And I’m seriously thinking about moving to Greece. Just to experience sanity.

 

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Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:07 | 5771467 kowalli
kowalli's picture

can we start talking about recovery? anyone?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:10 | 5771480 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No.

NEXT!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:22 | 5771562 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Just locate a Mercedes plant in Greece.  Solved!!!!

No?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:27 | 5771607 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

That makes too much sense.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:37 | 5771684 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Dear Alexi amd Yani,

Your names would be ingraved in eternity, if you stay the course. Show the world once again the light at the end of the tunnel.

Wake up the zombies. Please.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:03 | 5771859 cossack55
cossack55's picture

WTF? Spent many years in Germany and never once saw a German driving a Mercury.  Turks, yes.  We called them "a Turk in a Merc".

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:48 | 5771762 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

The author of the Greek piece lost me at "they play...but Syriza deals..."

It's the same as the U.S. Republican versus Democrat talking points game, and he cannot see the trees from the forest. 

Silly rabbit, Trix are for kids! 

How about some wise analyses of the situation instead of a piece of whining?

 

The Greeks (via their politicians) got themselves to this point by continually squandering resources provided.

There is shared responsibility for that, and they will continue to squander resources in the future if provided with more.

What the author fails to recognize through the political propaganda is that the lifeline can be cut off at any point. The inhabitants of the Northerrn European Plain (i.e., France, Germany, the Benelux) just need to tire and pull the plug, then focus on Draghi's printing to deal with Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

 

What is of interest to me is the silence from Turkey, now that Russia has entered the fray.  Russia would imose upon Turkey's future sphere of influence by "colonizing" Greece.

 

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:11 | 5771484 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

Obi Wan Nairobi covered that topic in his State of the Hood address.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:42 | 5771726 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

+1

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:15 | 5771492 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

The thing about a "Recovery" it is just like an alcoholic falling back into a drunken binge, it is only one drink away from disaster.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:41 | 5771718 steelhead23
steelhead23's picture

Recovery?  Oh, hell yes.  Let's have recovery.  The first step in our twelve-step program for recovery from financial slavery would be to kill the global banking system and start over.  Step two involves rope and lamposts.  Shall I go on?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:33 | 5772158 tgatliff
tgatliff's picture

One cannot talk about recovery until they actually deal with the underlying problem of the recession.  Having a system that directly subsidizes an unproductive financial industry at the expense of everything else is not sustainable.  Secondly, the collapsing debt accumulated over the last 50 years cannot be used as blackmail.   This leads to dramatic wealth inequalities, which will ultimately lead to a political response in all nations.   Greece is just the first to "boil over".   

 

In short, the current financial system needs a great reset and traditional business practices need to be reimplemented before anyone can start to talk about a recovery.  Untlil this fact is realized by the status quo, the global recession will continue. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:11 | 5771482 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

Germany benefitted from the relatively weak Euro for the last decade vs what would have been a much stronger DM.  Complain all they want, they benfitted more than anyone and now its time to pay the bill.  

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:15 | 5771505 noben
noben's picture

As I said only yesterday*: Bullshit! If that were the ONLY variable, then it would apply to ALL EU countries.

It is PRODUCTIVITY, TECHNOLOGY, QUALITY, PERFORMANCE, PRICE, MARKETING that dominate the equation of German success. Its currency is only a small factor. Can the PIIGS lay claim to be competitive with Germany on the aforementioned variables? LOL. I think not!

Think back to the pre-EUR era (1950-1990), when they had the DM (DEM), and the PIIGS had their shitty little currencies: The PIIGS were just as poor or poorer (1950-1990) as they are now.

* Tue, 02/10/2015 - 12:32 | 5766959 new noben

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:02 | 5771853 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

thanks I was confused about the role of banks in debt soaring and austerity in crushing small businesses, no chance Greek folks were taken advantage of, they obviously were on a equal footing entering the EU and it was clearly spelled out to the average person.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 17:43 | 5773143 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

"Greek folks"...are you Obama?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:18 | 5771526 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Germany only benefitted because the rest of the group are FRIGGIN IDIOTS

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:57 | 5771806 rpc
rpc's picture

People in Germany do not profit of a weak currency: imports are a lot more expensive, especially products from other EZ members got very expensive. The PIIGSF inflationed as if there was no Euro. Look at Switzerland, people there profit from a strong currency! Why did Greece, P, It, Sp ... wanted to join in? They are the ones profiting from higher buying power, not the northern members.

What you guys don't understand, (fiat-) money is just cotton or bits/bytes, nothing with real intrinsic value. The PIIGSF "printed" worthless cotton sheets and got real value for it (cars, machines, food, ...). Now Germany is sitting on these piles of nothing without hope of getting anything real back. A real PIIGSF-ponzi. So who is the real winner of this €-thing?

END THE EURO-SCAM NOW !

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:12 | 5771489 zuuuueri
zuuuueri's picture

"And I’m seriously thinking about moving to Greece. Just to experience sanity." 

LOL 

anyone who has ever lived in greece knows that the real experience the moment you have to interact with the machinery of the state is SURREALISM

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:25 | 5771584 edotabin
edotabin's picture

I am sick and tired of idiots writing claptrap that's being lapped up as fact.

Greece didn't work before the EU, it isn't working now and it won't work afterwards without serious introspection and substantive course corrections.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:29 | 5771989 walküre
walküre's picture

Dunno, I've lived in places that "work" and I wasn't happy. So I left. Sometimes the greenest pastures are the ones where its fences are malleable. Politicians are corrupt by nature otherwise we call them ideologues or populists. Those types typically have a very short life expectancy but they make our cultural experiences so much richer.

Best place on earth is the place with the least amount of statists. Is Greece a culture of statists or not?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:48 | 5772086 edotabin
edotabin's picture

The best place to live is where government interference is kept to an absolute minimum. This slams the door shut on many ills of society. Naturally, you have to add in nice weather :-)

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:55 | 5772457 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

You should buy yourself a boat, and start taking sailing lessons...

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:14 | 5771500 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

I don't see the wisdom in excusing the Greeks for borrowing to live beyond their means.  Yes, the bankers should have said no to their loan applications, but the Greeks took the money and blew it on consumption while not lifting a finger to make their economy function better.  There are no good guys in this soap opera.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:49 | 5771767 spellbound
spellbound's picture

Did the actual people borrow on their behalf? NO. Their corrupt governments borrowed on their behalf. 

 

The USA is $18 Trillion in debt. Did any normal citizen ask for that? NO. The crony corrupt government borrowed that money on their behalf. See the pattern? Governments no longer answer to the people who elected them.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:02 | 5771826 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Not entirely true.

Everyone was in on it. They all knew full well what was going on.

In America, you have honesty, ignorance and naivete that come into play. I've noticed this changing rapidly though as America declines. People are getting sneakier and more self-serving.

As for the governments being corrupt, that holds entirely true in both cases.

So, what's gonna be done about it?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:31 | 5772005 walküre
walküre's picture

The cattle class is on SNAP and EBT and will always vote for the most corruptest politician who promises the biggest larders.

Yes, technically you could argue that the people are "in on it" as they vote with their bellies not their brains.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:00 | 5771834 rpc
rpc's picture

Greeks elected their corrupt governments, and profited from new unproductive public sector jobs, so yes, Greeks are responsible for their mess.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:47 | 5772085 jemlyn
jemlyn's picture

So you say the voters are responsible.  What choice did they ever have?  How about us?  Does any moral leader have any chance to win an election?  Look how the GOP treated Ron Paul.  If we get to choose between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton then it's our fault that we are headed over the cliff?

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:57 | 5771807 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Caveat Emptor.  And while we're at it - its not just the Greeks - its the Italians, Spaniards, the Portuguese, the French - fuck everybody is in hawk in that shit show.  Lenders had no control over terms, and borrowers have no incentive to honor such terms.  Its a retarded dysfunctional arrangement at best.  Germany gets the shaft, but, really, its the fucking banks that caused all this anyhow.  To blame the Greek's blowing it on consumption or whatever - misses the point.  the loans have beennothing but bailouts to protect German et al banks.  boo fucking hoo.  Thats what happens when you give up control over lending terms as you remain one voice of 20 on terms of repayment.  I would never lend money under this scenario - its like lending without a even a GSA in place to protect you ffs!  Indeed what was Germany's collateral?  FOUR FIFTHS OF FUCK ALL!!  Any loan issued under these terms would constitute insanity in the market place.  so, either Draghi starts printing or Germany take sit on the chin.  Either way Shauble needs to shut the fuck up. - in my opinion.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 15:18 | 5787479 BlackCaty
BlackCaty's picture

Yeah.. greek people consume a lot with 600 euros average payment per month. That kind of cosumption I ve never seen in my life. You are like? Should I pay the electricity bill or not this month? 0f Greece's 250 billion euros dept. Actually only 50 come directly from E.U. countries. From wich German taxpayers gave the 17 billion. But because of "crisis" in south europe.. (poor south.. rich north.. invisible walls) Germany benefitted like 75 billions from her own loans. So enough with that fairytale of what german taxpayers paid for Greece cause I only see a few beneficiaries here. And this "crisis" only makes you think how much of what we see and hear is real or not? Or how much is made to benefit a few. Oh forgot to mention.. how many deposits were transferred to Germany from citizens from Southern Europe cause German banks considered to be safer. Also from the loan we were talking about earlier not even a single euro was given to greek people. And how could that be? Since they lowered pensions and payments and ther's no social welfare. And nobody gets paid if he's not working of course. 

And let's not discuss about.. how corrupted politicians are getting elected.. the latest elections they even denied the vote to young people that just turned eighteen by saying that there's was not ime to prepare their voting papers. And these young people were some thousands. Past governments also made it this way that greek people out of borders couldn't vote. I even wonder how Syriza was elected with all these traps made from the previous government. And lot of propaganda from news.. every elections they were showing some immature stupid young people that were drinking coffees and didn't go to vote. They wouldn;t interview people that were really concerned about their country. And don't tell me that all these don't make a difference and don't tell me you expect all people to have critical thinking or be intellectual to overpass these obstacles.

 

 

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 15:26 | 5787480 BlackCaty
BlackCaty's picture

 

just wanted to erase this one.. I posted accidentaly twice.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:16 | 5771507 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Failed idea from day 1.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:16 | 5771508 loonyleft
loonyleft's picture

We keep getting told that the world stops if Greece exits, or derivatives blow up, or or or or if any significant FINANCIAL instrument fails. When the truth is that the world will continue on and any disruptions will be deliberate due to parties and counterparties not wanting to pay the piper. 

The 0.01% or TPTB or whoever they are, are prepared to sacrifice everyone else, as long as they get to keep their spot at the table. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:17 | 5771525 wildbad
wildbad's picture

as an american victim of the 2008 bailouts i concur that the euro is on the downside of its halflife.  make no mistake though, schauble is not negotiating jsut for fun.  this will be a big writedown for the german banks and we know their addiction to taxpayer (my) money didn't go away with the last bailout.

germany even tried to fund a fund after the last bailout to bailout the banks again for the next (this one) bailout.  the pre-pay option didn't fly.

greece will not back down and they should not.  go all iceland on their bankster eurocrat assses/1

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:19 | 5771534 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

There is one thing that can save the Union - geopolitics. Greece's threat to go over to the Russian camp and invite in the Russian Army has to be taken seriously. The prospect of the Russian Army in Greece should be enough to get Z germans off their high horse and convince them to implement a full fiscal and political union.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:32 | 5771651 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

No one wants the Germans in charge. There won't be a union.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:03 | 5771857 rpc
rpc's picture

I agree, so lets end the €-hoax and get back to national currencies.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:19 | 5771538 GCT
GCT's picture

I will believe the action in Greece when I see it.  So far just a bunch of blustery politicians blowing hot air, including SYRIZA.  I hope SYRIZA does blow out the EMU instead of caving.  Yanis and Tiripas both stated they do not want to leave the Euro. 

Many times politicians are elected on a platform of hope and change  (he he sound familiar) and nothing changes or the pleebs lives get worse once their elected officals start getting their kickbacks.  Seventy percent of the Greeks want to use the Fiat Euro as their currency, which is another mandate from them.  Of course this card has yet to be played by SYRIZA to keep the pleebs happy.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:20 | 5771539 SMC
SMC's picture

Just like confederate dollars.  They were easy to print, but eventually became hard to spend!  ROFL.

Perhaps in 100 years the Euro will have some collectors value after the people have burnt the majority of the paper to light their furnaces.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:21 | 5771553 yogibear
yogibear's picture

LOL, the Euro becomes like the confederate money of the past.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:20 | 5771542 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Sure, many people knew it wouldn't work. Why prolong the pain and suffering?

Admit it was a bad idea and break it apart.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:22 | 5771560 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

so i have to deal with 15 more years of shit?  I will be an old man when its all over.  :(

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:24 | 5771580 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Untuck your shirt comrades join the revolution!

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:27 | 5771598 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

fat Germans driving their Mercs and Beamers...driving to Holland to dig themselves in on the beach, eating Bratwurst and drinking beer..

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:32 | 5771646 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

Varoufakis should invite all the ministers to dinner and pay the check with New Drachma. Chinese Yuans and Rubles. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:38 | 5771690 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Simply use American Express the card that is going to become part of Union Pay

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:34 | 5771659 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

"So far, all the EU has is hubris, bluster and chest-thumping."

 

Actually, relative to Greece, the EU is holding the wallet.  Greece is saying they want the wallet without conditions.  The EU is saying it looks like Greece doesn't really want the wallet.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:36 | 5771676 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Best part is Deutsche Bank is Merkel's largest campaign contributor; has a huge derivatives portfolio $75 trillion and doesn't even earn its cost of capital.

No wonder Paul Achleitner has told Jain to find a strategy......after all Merkel sold them the Postbank on a deal with delayed payment it amounted to subsidy - now they want to shunt it off. This of course was Achleitner who in his previous job at Allianz bought Dresdner Bank, made a complete clusterfuck and had to offload it to Commerzbank where Blessing the CEO was husband of Achleitner's former Goldman colleague........then Commerzbank had to be propped up with 25% equity in government hands and now........it needs more......after all Dresdner had to write of €6 billion in 2008.....and now it is Corporate Lending that is in the tank as defaults rise

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:45 | 5771742 mog
mog's picture

Vive Syriza.

About time the people prevailed.

Time to bring down the Fourth Reich and stinking cesspit of the EUSSR that fronts it.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 12:44 | 5771746 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

All this talk about austerity.....one would think Grecce has actually spent less year over year.

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:07 | 5771876 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

Now watch the typical Greek reaction to any disaster, http://youtu.be/a6K7OC-IKnA - Zorba

They will survive.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:16 | 5771921 The Man Thursday
The Man Thursday's picture

Raul Ilargi Meijer’s cheerleading for Greek default disturbs my otherwise sunny morning.  He is too upbeat about the whole mess.  For example he starts his rant by writing, “I don’t know about you, but I’m having a ball reading up on the preparations for the Wednesday/Thursday talks between Greece and … well, everybody else.”  Yes, I understand that a prophet predicting the world’s end feels a tinge of the “I told you so” as the fire and brimstone starts falling, but remember that the world’s end is still the subject.  It is a somber subject, full of more foreboding than promise.  Likewise Greece’s exit from the Euro—if it happens—can bring a host of troubles upon Greece and Europe, but scenarios for a rosy outcome are much less likely.

Meijer ignores the danger, and like a starry-eyed revolutionary, suggests that the G-exit is the dawn of a new golden age without central banks in control of our world.  He tells us that the Greeks elected a new government and that election is all that matters.  Greeks voted for Syriza and that means Greeks want a repudiation of the Greek debt and an exit from the Euro.  What justifies it?  Why, a high unemployment rate among young Greeks, low wages for those with jobs, and poor health care.  These are exactly the arguments popular in Weimar Germany when Germans wanted to repudiate the Versailles war reparations payments and break free of treaty restrictions.  They had good cause, too.  Germans were suffering.  Payments were onerous.  Terms were too restrictive.  But, for me, I would like a little better road map for the future than mere wishful thinking.  Germans voted for the Nazis.  Did that justify the actions taken in the name of the National Socialist German Worker’s Party?  Well, they too represented the workers, the poor, the oppressed, and the downtrodden.

Greek repudiation of their debt will not feed the hungry, cloth the poor, or provide jobs and health care.  First, it will leave Greece in dire straits for the capital it needs to keep its banks solvent.  If they go, as they surely will in the event of default, the current abysmal business climate in Greece will seem mild by comparison.  Second, Greek citizens want more than repudiation.  They expect positive results from their new government.  If they fail to get positive change, they may well take to the streets again.  This will cripple the one bright spot in the Greek economy, tourism.  In the end, a rudderless Greek state is likely to wind up in the orbit of an existing power, Russia, or a new non-western coalition.  That is the way the world works.  In itself, destroying the existing world order is not a step in any positive direction.  I would like to see where Tsipras and Syriza are going before I engage in any cheerleading or celebrating.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:21 | 5771954 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture
We have front row seats for this Theater of Mass Destruction. The Demolitions Committee of Project Mayhem wrapped the foundation columns of ten buildings with blasting gelatin. In two minutes, primary charges will blow base charges, and those buildings will be reduced to smoldering rubble. I know this because Tyler knows this.
Wed, 02/11/2015 - 15:21 | 5772592 crashguru
crashguru's picture

Agreed!This article is imo the avaerage blogger clap trap.

11 million inhabitants (incl. every child and pensioner) and ca. 700.000 public servants and workers. How can this become a prosperous country.

I hate these parasites in Brussels and wish this new Gr Gov. all the best, but when I look at Yannis V. "solution" for pulling Europe out of this hole, I am getting very depressed.

He is actually proposing a public investment program thru the EIB. In other words Japan 3.0 or 4.0.

Inviting the Russians is the only smart move so far. They will also deal with Erdogan, if necessary, but it might become another Sorcerer's Apprentice story.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 15:30 | 5772631 crashguru
crashguru's picture

Agreed!This article is imo the avaerage blogger clap trap.

11 million inhabitants (incl. every child and pensioner) and ca. 700.000 public servants and workers. How can this become a prosperous country.

I hate these parasites in Brussels and wish this new Gr Gov. all the best, but when I look at Yannis V. "solution" for pulling Europe out of this hole, I am getting very depressed.

He is actually proposing a public investment program thru the EIB. In other words Japan 3.0 or 4.0.

Inviting the Russians is the only smart move so far. They will also deal with Erdogan, if necessary, but it might become another Sorcerer's Apprentice story.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 13:35 | 5772025 walküre
walküre's picture

"Peace" talks in Minsk will fail as the US is pushing for weapons in Ukraine. Russia says "NO"

WW3 is on a fast track because financial ponzi is blowing up again.

When the radioactive dust has settled in 5 years and billions are dead, we can write this into history books. Don't let the "winners" write their propaganda history again to try for another war 100 years later.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 19:54 | 5772773 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"WW3 is on a fast track because financial ponzi is blowing up again."

Sadly so ... which is why some comments above are not fond of those who seem to somewhat celebrate that tragic trajectory.

That was, bit by bit, faster and faster, all due to the world's combined money/murder systems becoming more and more successfully enforced frauds. There has never been anything able to prevent the people who were the best at being dishonest and backing that up with violence from controlling civilization, and thereby driving it towards its own psychotic destruction. The ability of some human beings to control other human beings using the methods of enforced frauds are the foundation of the political economy, while that structure automatically and necessarily becomes more criminally insane everyday.

That is especially the case because there MUST be some death controls within the context of any human ecology, since there ARE chronic political problems inherent in the nature of life. The human species have developed an expedient set of solutions to those problems which operate through small groups, who specialized in being dishonest and violent, dominating larger groups, who are thereby kept ignorant and afraid. Thus, the established systems are almost nothing but organized crime and controlled opposition.

That combination of organized crime and controlled opposition means that the world is almost totally dominated by professional liars and immaculate hypocrites operating in BOTH the established organized crime AND the controlled opposition groups. Hence, there can not be any genuine progress, but only more overall criminal insanities, headed towards psychotic breakdowns. None of the "peace processes" ever address how the human species might be able to operate better death controls, in order to back up better debt controls, because everyone participating are there because they were the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, within the groups that they are speaking for.

In the current flash points, or the leading edges of the established systems having driven themselves into situations of debt insanities and/or death insanities, there is always an almost totally BULLSHIT WORLD VIEW dominating all of those discussions, which makes any genuine progress practically impossible. For thousands of years, Neolithic Civilizations' social pyramid systems have been successfully based on backing up lies with violence, in order to continue to grow an an exponential rate. However, within the lifetime of those alive today, legalized lies backed by legalized violence have become globalized systems of electronic frauds, backed by the threat of force from atomic bombs.

That is the level of collectively social insanities that we have worked ourselves up into. While our problems became millions, then billions, then trillions of times worse than ever before in human history, the established systems of organized crime, and their controlled opposition, continued to be dominated by professional liars and immaculate hypocrites. The ruling classes and those they ruled over became matching bookends of the prolonged processes of controlling civilization through enforcing frauds. All the language that they use is based on false fundamental dichotomies and the related impossible ideals.

Somewhere deep, deep, deep BURIED UNDER BULLSHIT, are some relatively objective facts, and the unitary mechanisms of general energy systems, however, the social systems are so totally based on being able to continue to back up lies with violence, that those facts have almost no influence upon anything, since enforced frauds are actually controlling civilization. Therefore, the overall systems of backing up lies with violence continue to enable attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance to flourish, while our problems are headed towards becoming quadrillions of times worse than ever before in known human history, as long as progress in science and technology continues to be channeled through social pyramid systems whose basic structure is due to being able to back up lies with violence. That has gradually selected for all the most successful people within those established systems, of organized crime and controlled opposition, to become the best available professional hypocrites, so that when they meet to discuss problems there is almost nothing said which is not UTTER BULLSHIT.

In that context, it is not clear that there will be any future human historians who survive to discuss what went wrong.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:11 | 5772220 kinnon
kinnon's picture

First, as a German, I don't own a Mercedes or BMW and I'm not fat.

Second, I do agree.

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:18 | 5772276 SpeedKing
SpeedKing's picture

I hate the world-wide ponzi scheme as much as the next person on here.  However, Greece is not special.  They no more have a right to just say "eeeh...eff it" to a loan than literally any other country.  I actually support what the new blood is trying to do.  And if they do pull it off, I'll somewhat cheer, as it was a slap in the face of the global money machine.  However, it will still amount to Greece just getting away with more free stuff.  There's no honor in that, even if I'd support it.  It's Greece bein' Greece. 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:32 | 5772343 Batman11
Batman11's picture

When politicians and the media are dancing to the bankers tune things can only get very bad indeed.

Banker excess, always has the same result as they only have one product, loans/debt, they let people take money from the future to spend today.

Boom today and crash tomorrow.

That is all they do.

1929/2008 - Wall Street Crash

1930s/2010s - Global recession, currency wars, end of globalisation phase and rise of nationalism and extremism

It is always the same.

 

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:39 | 5772394 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Usury was illegal in ancient times and with good reason.


Wed, 02/11/2015 - 14:52 | 5772444 Thenardier
Thenardier's picture

One of Raul's best pieces..he puts it together rationally

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 15:09 | 5772522 nicxios
nicxios's picture

US and UK will step in before Russia does. Greece and Russia may be eyeing each other but both know a switch of allegiance by Athens away from Washington is opening a Pandora's box.

 

Wed, 02/11/2015 - 16:11 | 5772605 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"The whole thing is so morally bankrupt, it’s really insane that we’re still trying to have a serious discussion about it."

And here I am, reading Zero Hedge for commiserating relief from that.

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