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Greece: Another Big Picture Update And The Latest Calendar Of Events

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Confused by the whirlwind of conflicting facts, not to mention outright lies, leaks and rumors, surrounding the negotiations of what will either be the third Greek bailout of its first, and final, Greek exit from the Eurozone? The following summary should answer most questions.

From DB's George Saravelos

The Emergency Eurogroup on Greece concluded late Wednesday evening with little progress being made. On the positive side, expectations were very low – all sides had suggested that no agreement should be expected today. On the negative side, it appears that the meeting concluded with the prospect that a joint Greece – Eurogroup statement could be signed by both sides. However, agreement on the phrasing of this statement broke down, with the Greek side ultimately rejecting the language as equivalent to an extension of the existing program – something which the prime minister explicitly ruled out in the Greek parliament a few days ago.

Semantics may be playing a role here, as the Greek side would clearly prefer a re-branded “bridge program” that may be more acceptable domestically. Substance cannot however be overlooked: the Greek prime minister has explicitly distinguished between a legal extension of the “loan agreement” (which the government desires and relates to funding disbursement) and a rejection of an extension of the “program”, which includes all the policy conditionality attached to financial assistance. Ultimately, the key difference between the two sides is that Greece doesn’t want to commit to the policy conditionality specified under the existing program, while the European side is requesting the opposite.

Irrespective of today’s outcome, we now have a little more visibility around how the debate will evolve into Monday’s Eurogroup meeting: the European side is offering a technical extension of the existing program (rather than our initial expectation of a 3rdrd ESM program), with the Greek side desiring maximum flexibility and the least amount of up-front commitments attached to completing the program review.

Our baseline remains that an agreement to move forward should be achievable. After all, this will only involve a commonly agreed written statement by both sides that marks the first step in a three-part process:

  • Step 1 consists of agreeing on a negotiating framework around which talks can begin (“the program extension”).
  • Step 2 will then involve the actual negotiation over the fiscal path, structural reforms and debt sustainability (“the policy conditionality around the program”).
  • Step 3 then requires the approval of any program conditionality by the Greek parliament before any formal disbursements to Greece are made.

Given the large distance separating the two sides, we view the successful completion of each of the three steps as a close call. Agreement at the Eurogroup on Monday will allow substantive negotiations to start, but any additional interim funding to Greece via increased t-bill issuance (if at all) is unlikely to be approved until progress on talks has been achieved. A continuation of the deadlock on Monday will immediately shift focus to Wednesday’s bi-weekly ECB review of the ELA limits of Greek banks: in the event of failure, we would expect the ECB to become more explicit on the timing of when ELA funding would be withdrawn or capped.

Ultimately, the alternative of ELA withdrawal and eventual capital controls for Greece is worse for all sides involved. But whether progress can be achieved under very pressing deadlines and large differences of opinion on the underlying policy path between the two sides remains to be seen.

Updated calendar

  • Thursday February 12th – European Council of EU Leaders, Tsipras likely to meet Merkel on sidelines
  • Sunday February 15th – Voting for new Greek President begins, EC Commissioner Avramopoulos most likely candidate, originating from New Democracy. Likely completed by second round on the following day requiring 151 MP majority
  • Monday February 16th – Eurogroup
  • Wednesday February 18th - Bi-weekly ELA review
  • Tuesday February 24th – 595mio EUR of bond interest/principal due
  • Saturday February 28th – Current EFSF program expires
  • 6th March – 297mio EUR IMF repayment due / 1.2bn EUR t-bill matures
  • 13th March – 334mio EUR IMF repayment due / 1.6bn EUR t-bill matures
  • 16th March – 556mio EUR IMF repayment due
  • 20th March – 334mio EUR IMF repayment due / 111mio EUR bond interest/principal due / 1.6bn EUR t- bill matures
 

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Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:18 | 5775212 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Yanis Varoufakis keep it up baby , the world is behind you

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:26 | 5775227 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Amen

EARTH TO GHORDO!  Where have you run off to?  

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:29 | 5775253 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They can rebuild him. They can make him stonger, faster, better.

 

It will only take 6 million dollars.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5775260 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Beware of Central banks bearing gifts!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:55 | 5775366 negative rates
negative rates's picture

We know the drill, if you don't agree by the 16th, the paperwork won't be done by D-day the 28th.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:33 | 5775488 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

Printing money IS stealing money.

Also, lending money with INTEREST is STEALING MONEY.
Lending money WITHOUT interest is what we refer to as "lending".

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:51 | 5775875 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Hurry up and redefine a buch of shit, PRONTO!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:14 | 5775946 donsluck
donsluck's picture

I fail to see how a private negotiation of a loan and interest by two free parties can be argued against. Banking, however, is a different story. Without private lending, there is no capital formation and all projects are tiny.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:30 | 5775802 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

It will only take 6 trillion dollars. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:12 | 5775448 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

He's pissed.  His fantastical euro-centric dream world is beginning to fray.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:19 | 5775463 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Yeup.  

If he never shows back up again, he is the epitome of the term coward. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:56 | 5775372 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

As for me...Varoufakis has been all talk (although entertaining).   If he wants me to get the "Varoufakis for US President" bumper sticker he will stand up and say "we aren't going to make this February 24th payment"....period

  • Tuesday February 24th – 595mio EUR of bond interest/principal due
Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:46 | 5775588 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

The emerging picture is one of a decoupling of Europe from the US and UK. While some noticed that Obama wasn't invited to the talks, nobody even bothered asking why Cameron was not there. England is now entirely irrelevant (positive).

Neither Greek nor Ukraine will break Europe although many Germany-hater are longing for it to happen.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:08 | 5775694 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

 

 

Greece bank holidays comming up

 

that 24th debt looks close to the 23rd bank holiday

 

 

Monday February 23 Ash Monday Orthodox Shrove Monday. Movable Wednesday March 25 Independence Day 25th March Day Friday April 10 Orthodox Good Friday Movable Monday April 13 Orthodox Easter Monday Movable Friday May 01 Labour Day
Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:39 | 5775575 spellbound
spellbound's picture

The world should be with him, not behind him. 

End the fiat era. Only with fiat is all this madness possible.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:49 | 5775868 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Just FYI, V thinks returning to metals is lunacy.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:33 | 5775761 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"Yanis Varoufakis keep it up baby , the world is behind you"

Yanis says "Hi" and thanks you for the sentiment, and would reply in person, but his time is currently attrited via his demanding commitments on twitter.  

Hey, this is 21st century socialist govt so social-media is a natural facilitator of national policy development.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:19 | 5775762 mccvilb
mccvilb's picture

Nash equilibrium.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:52 | 5775881 Payne
Payne's picture

China steps in and offers to trade US treasuries for all Greek debt.  Bad paper for Bad paper.  China then redenominates the debt and payments to another currency system outside of Euro and dollar.

China then owns the Gas pipeline into Europe and port facilities.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:19 | 5775217 Truther
Truther's picture

Knock them out Alexis

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:22 | 5775225 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Where is Zero Debt when you need him??

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:26 | 5775241 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I'd love to hear N Farage's take on the past few mths of events.

The birthplace of democracy, returning to its roots..

Now about you corrupt Greek officials who let it happen, weeed like to have a word with you..

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:35 | 5775282 Tarshatha
Tarshatha's picture

Farage has gone native.

 

EU Faces Greek Democracy in Great Euro Poker Game - UKIP Leader Nigel Farage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDrhBxKRfdo

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:18 | 5775490 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Can't wait for Germexit...

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:22 | 5775510 Vinividivinci
Vinividivinci's picture

Farage is a FU**ING ROCKSTAR...ya'll gotta lookim up on UTUBE...
He tells the EURO fu...ers "you're making it up as you go along" and other priceless, choice words. Farage saw this coming from way back when.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:26 | 5775524 Vinividivinci
Vinividivinci's picture

Farage is a FU**ING ROCKSTAR...ya'll gotta lookim up on UTUBE...
He tells the EURO fu...ers "you're making it up as you go along" and other priceless, choice words. Farage saw this coming from way back when.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:27 | 5775244 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Is this a complete and correct calendar ?

Does it list all items ?  and when all must occur ?

Looks wimpy calendar made up by smoothers.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:27 | 5775245 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Greece is boring. Can we talk about ebola now?

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5775261 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Can't.....the czar quit.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5775262 NoVa
NoVa's picture

What is Ebola?

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:31 | 5775268 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Cheap biological weapon.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:24 | 5775505 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Ebola is a one night stand with Lady Haggard dressed up as Louis Vuiton's version of Aphrodite.

Doppelganger dangerosity pi squared! 

You see her true face in the morning light and Medusa is a beauty in comparison. 

My ! Does that debt servicing empty our your innards. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:31 | 5775809 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Ebola was another great hope for the elites.  Vanquished and made trivial by silver, of the colloidal persuasion.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:31 | 5775269 pods
pods's picture

Doc, Greece is real. We cannot talk about real.  Being helpful, these are some thing you may discuss:

1.  More fake war, ISIS/ISIL/IS style.  You just cannot discuss how that chick got killed.  We don't know how she died, but we do know it wasn't a Jordanian airstrike (cause they are on our side).

2. Brian Williams.  Always a good topic as you may entertain most people and safely stay within the false left/right paradigm. 

pods

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:35 | 5775277 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How about gays? Can we talk about thum there dirty homo-sexxxxuals? They want to get married and destroy Merika!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:47 | 5775316 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

If you can't legislate someones personal choices what fun is being a politician. Put that seat belt on, throw away the big drink and stop driving and eating that hamburger. And Hey!, you women, FYI your body is not your own to do with as you please.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:57 | 5775653 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Hey women...

Do anything you want with your body, including self immolation on the Capitol steps, but don't expect me to pay for any of it. Grow up and take care of your own shit.

I ain't your Daddy or sugar daddy.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:19 | 5775765 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

^^^^^ Bingo.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:59 | 5775909 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You gots some nice strawmen there, be a shame if something were to happen to them..

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:34 | 5775278 NoVa
NoVa's picture

3.  American Idol was really good last night

/s/

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:43 | 5775858 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Okay. The most recent Ebola outbreak was a germ-warfare experiment, designed to test how easily Ebola could be spread in the civilized world, with a view to its use as a genocidal weapon when the time comes to make all men but banksters equal. (There's a safe and effective vaccine, of course. No proles need apply for a dose, though.)

As the death toll in civilized countries was negligible, the experiment was a failure and will probably not be soon repeated---not with the current generation of strains of Ebola anyway, which are still not airborne and kill their hosts too quickly. Top men are working on it, though.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:30 | 5775263 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Greece the new debt buster. Hope they have an anti nail gun machine.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:36 | 5775288 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Quick FF, coin and TM a new name....DebtBusters.  I see movie rights. Where is Dan Adroyd and Bill Murray?

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:56 | 5775374 zuuuueri
zuuuueri's picture

see, the thing that makes one not trust these fucks is that theyre NOT the debt buster. they're NOT defaulting and pulling greece out of the euro. instead they are throwing tantrums in order to get brussels to buy even MORE paper and spread even MORE debt.. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:32 | 5775271 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

On the positive side - expectations were low . . Classic

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:40 | 5775303 Buenaventura
Buenaventura's picture

Semantics may be playing a role here, as the Greek side would clearly prefer a re-branded “bridge program” that may be more acceptable domestically.

In other words, the Greek gov is looking to return home with their tails between their legs, but still want to pretend they achieved all they promised. Classic politician move.

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:03 | 5775677 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Hard to turn down free money if you can manage to cut the strings attached.

Too many people watching to pull off a head-fake and they know it.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:43 | 5775313 RadioactiveRant
RadioactiveRant's picture

He's going to cave, the Troika have set this up nicely. The withdrawal of the ELA will slowly turn the screws until Tsipras accepts a reworded rehash of what they had before. It would be better for Russia to see Greece turn into another Bear/Lehman event.

If anyones going to bail them out on better terms, China is more likely given the influence effectively buying an EU nation would bring, they could operate it on the same lines as HK and Macau, and use it as a back door into EU with virtually unrestricted access to wider EU markets. Imagine being able to buy BAE and any other strategic asset in Europe as a "Greek" entity.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:50 | 5775350 Archetype
Archetype's picture

You are right! However, what if Yellen queefs out 20 billion euros for the greek people? I smell can kicking!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:47 | 5775340 youngman
youngman's picture

More meetings and more food.....good job to have....

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:58 | 5775384 Denaliguide1
Denaliguide1's picture

So far the Greeks are doing as they said they would.  Russia, China, and the USA are in the wings as are other potential Black Swan's.

 

  So far it is a NO.

 

Anything short of what the Greeks wanted is a No-Starter.  Why ?  Because they came in with a plan, and are sticking to it.  Isn't that stupid of them?  NO, the NAZO's and Troika have only a hammer in their tool kit and so to them, everything appears to be a nail.

Bottom line. If it is not an Explicit YES, it is a NO.  Thats what I take from all the delay.  The longer the delay, the more NO it is.............

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:17 | 5775748 FreeMoney
FreeMoney's picture

We just need one little article about the Greeks buying their printing press to blow the top off this....

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 09:59 | 5775389 Deathstar
Deathstar's picture

The news changes by the day to goose the markets. So those in position can profit daily.

Behold! The steaming pile of propaganda!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:14 | 5775430 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

The irony is that the Greeks could default and go back to the Drachma, the banks holding the debt get bailed out and recapped, everything in Greece is a 50% off sale, and the likely new debt and equity investors: the same banks (since there will be no money left in Greece).

Head: the banks win.

Tails: the banks win. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:25 | 5775520 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

German / French banks can withstand the hit from Greek default.  Problem is when Spanish banks see deposits leaking, need more funding, Spanish Govt and bank bonds sliding...

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:39 | 5775577 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Deathstar has it. Insiders are cleaning up during this process goosing the markets. A full audit of all finances from anyone with inside information of this process would be done in a just society but we already know we don't live in one of those...

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:02 | 5775400 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Who voted the previous parliament who created government that took the loan? Where it Greeks or some other dimension aliens? If they were aliens than I understand why Greeks don't want to take responsibility for other dimension alien actions, but if they were same Greeks that elected them - than where is the problem? Don't like to take responsibility? Time to grow up!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:08 | 5775423 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

By your same logic, we should build a wall around Greece and not let anyone leave. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:36 | 5775556 freedom123
freedom123's picture

You have made logical fallacy, can you find yours? Try:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGjjwRL99fQ

The point is - greeks voted in parliament that created goverment who took the loan, so it is greek responsibility - not some outside player who pushed them to vote such parliament.

What I described in my example was in a way with more contrast to understand it.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:03 | 5775674 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Problem is all related to the structure of the EU.

Greece exports less with common currency, growth slows.  Without weaker currency to act as natural "governor" on economic engine, Greek politicians see stimulus measures as only way to kick-start economy.

Problem then is that borrowing to stimulate growth only works if growth is enough to pay back debt or at least pay interest, otherwise it is Ponzi finance.

And...here it comes...because Greec was assumed to have backing of rest of Europe/ECB...Greece was allowed to borrow WAY, WAY, WAY more than they could ever, ever,ever, pay back.

So who made the mistake?

The Greek people who elected the politicians, who could have looked in a crystal ball and decided the EU was a dead end?

The Greek politicians, who borrowed too much?

The lenders, who should have looked into a crystal ball and realized that Greece could never, ever, ever, repay the debt?

 

I think the ultimate blame should be laid at the feet of the Bureaucrats who conceived of and implemented this abortion.

 

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:36 | 5775833 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Liar loans...lol.

Banks that don't follow due diligence should assume the risk. Pretending the risk away for political ends doesn't (or shouldn't) change a thing. Assuming you can always dump the crap paper on the taxpayers through CB purchases is also risky as well.

Real risk means that filet mignon your eating can turn into a shit sandwich at any time.

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:59 | 5775850 The Chief
The Chief's picture

Unfortunately, you fail to recognize that the people of Greece did NOT vote for the parliment that made the previous obligations. Just ask them. Just like the US, the same thing. Ask anyone on the street if the voted for someone to sell off their country's assets and obligate them to a life of poverty. The answer, Latvian, would be , "Fuck NO, I did not, so go fuck yourself".

The fraud that has been constructed just to make this happen is evident all around us. It is the same mold, the same propaganda machine.

It looks like, perhaps, the Greeks have found a solution. It looks like the intense poverty and self-immolations have created the necessary toughness to see an end to the madness. If it takes bloodshed, so be it. The people are speaking now.

Several people have made the comment that the former lawmakers and oligarchy need to be held accountable for their sins. They will be. The pent up frustration and anger has only in the last few weeks been awakened in the populace. Its been given hope. Maybe, just maybe, a little justice will be metted out. For that is the will of the people.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:16 | 5775957 freedom123
freedom123's picture

"Unfortunately, you fail to recognize that the people of Greece did NOT vote for the parliment that made the previous obligations."

You are saying that world is flat and people in Greece didn't voted that parliament who took the loan.

It's your freedom to say that world is flat - I base on facts:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2007

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_June_2012

Whole world including Greeks recognized elections as legit - you say that members of parliament was not elected by greeks. That is saying that world is flat when everyone knows it's not.

Is there any place for discussion? Not for me.. find someother flat-earther.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:34 | 5776047 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

How about you just fuck off and go find some other way to earn your pay? 

 

<<Is there any place for discussion? Not for me.. find someother flat-earther.>> 

What the hell are you doing here????   Stop littering!!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 13:53 | 5776553 The Chief
The Chief's picture

Regardless of how many ways you say it, the people are not responsible for the misdeeds of their legislature and will hang those same public servants in short order.

Those parlimantarians will be forced to flee with their booty to avoid the gallows. You seem to think that because an election was held that it justifies the crimes of the "elected". It will take some time, but we shall surely see who is right: You or the Greek people.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:33 | 5775815 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

It's a fair bet Mutti has thought about it...

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:23 | 5775409 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Negotiations

 

 

 

Greece: "We don't want Austerity"

Europe: "You're gonna have Austerity"

Greece: "We will no longer subject ourselves to Austerity"

Europe: "This point is Non-Negotiable"

Greece: "Fuck You!"

Europe: "Fuck You"

Greece: "Perhaps you didn't hear me the first time..."

 

Will it go something like that??

 

Ultimately the key difference is that Greece has realized that

1) it will never be able to pay back the money it has already borrowed and

2) if it stays in the EU it will keep having to borrow and

3) eventually it will have to cede sovereignty to Europe/Germany, at which point

4) Any Greeks between the ages of 16 and 60 will be forced to work as Prostitutes

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:05 | 5775681 Matthew John
Matthew John's picture

Right... this whole timeline is meaningless.

The only timeline that matters is how long it takes Europe to figure out that Greece is not going to pay, and that they can't squeeze blood out of a turnup.  Greece now holds all the cards.

Once you are in debt past the point of ever being able to repay, you default.  It then sets you free.

If Greece were to default and then create a silver or gold backed drachma, not subject to endless depreciation, capital would flow into Greece.

The world craves a hard asset based currency.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:32 | 5775811 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

4) is much less of an exaggeration than you'd think. Young Greeks are already voting against austerity with their feet, giving up careers as doctors and engineers to become busboys and waiters in northern Europe.

It's a miracle that Mutti/Comrade Erika hasn't already insisted on Greeks under 65 having to pay through the nose for exit visas (or having rich relatives abroad buy the visas for them). The GDR made plenty of hard cash selling Ossis to the west that way.

And, of course, debt-ridden basket cases like Ukraine full of desperate women are prime recruiting grounds for white slaves.  Greek doctors are already having to go on the game. Wouldn't fault them for wanting to sell their assets somewhere decent. Don't be surprised if you see ads flogging "educated, cultivated, refined" Greek wives by mail order on ZH in the near future, for those bored with Ukrainian blondes.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:06 | 5775410 Monetas
Monetas's picture

"It's not Greece's fault !" .... O.J. Simpson

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:07 | 5775413 GeorgeSilver
GeorgeSilver's picture

How can Alexis and Yanis possibly possibly negotiate properly or make a deal when they both haven't received their secret Swiss bank account numbers from the EU yet.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:06 | 5775414 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

"Beware the ides of March."

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:07 | 5775420 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Pre-market is up on an apparent impasse.  If they can just kick the can down the road, should be a moonshot.

 

Greece should just buy every SnP it can find, then announce acquiescence to the EU.  Problem solved.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:34 | 5775558 Arius
Arius's picture

thats how they got into trouble in the first place ... thanks to GS investments advice on their 2.5 billion to close the books to enter EU ... in retrospective probably all was planned all along

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07-hA9DW-Po

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:09 | 5775428 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The confusion is in ZH's edits, the program was clearly set and it was clear that Feb 11 would provide just a preliminary skirmish between EU/German orthodoxy and Greek rebellion to austerity.

This is going according to plan and the alleged ECB uptake, after Ukraine apparent resolution (temporary), makes the political scene clearer to decide if Mutti says Nein or Ya to the Greek conundrum. 

Its takes the Troika members to give their veto or acceptance of Grexit or Grexin options.

And Mutti has the key card in this.

After Ukraine smoothening she may be amenable to Grexin...unless Syriza says "we don't like your titties!"

But then beggars cannot be choosers and the Femen are not invited to Brussels to flash their tender flesh before hungry DSK's doppelganger types. (I like that "doppel" thingie!) 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:14 | 5775462 irongator
irongator's picture

I hope they have the audacity of (real) hope and just say no to more (meth) loans. I am digging the hell out of Varoufakis! 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:15 | 5775467 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

If I were Greece, I'd casually overlook the limits and quietly keep printing EURs...

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:22 | 5775507 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Yanis Varoufakis to the Greek people: "Who loves ya, baby?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8hbUqhKM38

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:23 | 5775511 CoonT
CoonT's picture

Aren't we a bunch of suckers. I'll admit it, for a second there I really thought it was going to happen. 

 

Status quo, eh!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:24 | 5775515 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Here's the problem with 'talks':  After all is said and done, a lot more is said than done.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:30 | 5775540 Der Meister
Der Meister's picture

That´s peanuts for the greece to pay!

They are a oil country you see.

Olive Oil !

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:47 | 5775553 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

There is not going to be any deal.  This guy is high on crack.  The Greeks want full on debt forgiveness and maybe they stay in the EU, or they default and leave the EU.  Either way the Troika and the ECB are going to be out of Greece completely.  Those are your two choices.  Any child can see the Greek government has no choice but to deliver on its political promises, and they want to deliver on them.  Nothing short of billion dollar bribes and new homes/asylum in South America is going to change that.

If the ECB doesn't print up a refund for all that debt to all the banks holding it, Warren Buffet will be eating out of garbage cans, because he insured it.  So what do you think is going to happen?  Same as when the whale trade bankrupted JPM the second time in 7 years.  There will be a bailout that is called QEx.  And in the QEx document, there will be not one mention of the Greek debt it is really being used to refund.  And don;t get any stupid ideas about buying Greek debt.  No one is going to bail YOU out.  The secret bailouts are for bankers only. 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:50 | 5775620 Der Meister
Der Meister's picture

Maybee you will find Warren Buffet inside a garbage can eating out of it.

When you empty the garbage can "you will see who is eating naked"

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:34 | 5775560 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

Printing money or even borrowing money will not make one single head of cabbage or a single potato. Somebody has to go to work and produce something!

Why isn't anyone talking about that?

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:52 | 5775635 mijev
mijev's picture

Because relatively speaking, there aren't any new jobs. We have an expanding population and a quickly shrinking pool of jobs. And its going to get worse rather quickly and will never reverse.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:11 | 5775715 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

What does jobs have to do with it?

All that is needed is seed, dirt, sunshine and water to grow food. A job isn't needed to catch a fish. You need a hen and a rooster to produce eggs and chicken, not a job.

My point is that money is supposed to represent real goods and services. It is an abstract concept. For it to represent real goods and services, someone has to produce them, job or no job. Otherwise, money is worthless.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:58 | 5775895 Frozen
Frozen's picture

.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:36 | 5776021 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Paper money and money on paper are derivatives of those products and services. When you can profit from trading on that paper and gain leverage by borrowing to increase profits, you would be crazy to do the hard work for low pay that your labor would produce.

It's a lot less effort to broker those chickens than to raise them, but the broker has a wider market to sell them in to get the chicken farmer a better price. He invests his time and money in your chickens to get the best price possible.

It's called capitalism. Done on a level playing field, it is the most efficient way to allocate scarce resources to those that want them.

The problem is that a small group can literally counterfeit the value of your chicken farming on a grand scale by producing credit dollars from thin air, increasing the money supply, and consequently lowering the value of your own dollars. Say hello to your friendly neighborhood bank. The bigger they are the less friendlier they get. They also own the credit card companies that further dilute your money value.

Hard money backed by gold and silver and full reserve lending eliminate the theft and allows business to be carried out in it's normal fashion. Everyone who produces those goods and services would be much wealthier if the value of their money wasn't being constantly drained away through 'inflation' which, in reality, is theft of value of the money supply.

Short answer to a subject that fills endless volumes

 

 

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:56 | 5775648 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

They could go back to exporting stuff to their formerly largest trading partner, and invite tourists from that partner back in.  Alas, the partner is sanctioned.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:48 | 5775614 Monetas
Monetas's picture

"Grecovery" !

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:49 | 5775617 29.5
29.5's picture

Why doesn't Greece buy puts on the SP, play along with Brussels until they release the Kraken and all hells breaks loose. They could make out like bandits.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 10:58 | 5775657 Beans
Beans's picture

**REPEAT OF POST MADE ON 'Spot The Mal-Investment Boom' THREAD**

 

Greetings to all the Zero Hedge posters,

This is my second post and, having joined up (after a belatedly extended acc verification process?), would like to say how much I enjoy the witty posts made by you guys, which is most times.

My reason for joining was so as to weigh in on the poll/debate regarding the accent of the foreign merc in the Ukraine which some posters had speculated might be South African. Well, as a Saffa of British extract I can tell you all quite confidently that he is neither S. African nor British. He absolutely has to be American (North East coast perhaps?) or maybe Canadian at a stretch.

Anyway, I look forward to interacting with you all from time to time. FYI, if you need to know, I am absolutely dead set against the "Zionist" agenda. Well, it's either appropriately described as a Zionist agenda or otherwise as a flavour of 'Anglo-Zionist' agenda, but with strong overtones of 'Zionist', and I shall be opposing it at every opportunity. There are people intent on pushing us all into destruction and I refuse to stand idly by while they do so.

For the rest, have a great day,

Beans

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:17 | 5775743 Prober
Prober's picture

You are a moron, your post is garbage.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 14:21 | 5776727 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Welcome to ZH.

I'm sure you must be familiar with your former neighbor Mr. Cecil Rhodes and his vision of the Anglo-American Empire. His multiple 'philanthropic' organizations have contributed mightily to our present day state of globalization and consolidation of resources into the hands of the top tier of industry, banking and govt.s.

Personally, I think the whole 'Zionist' thing is a distraction and an easy catch-all to put a face on the faceless powers. For every Jew in the top tiers of power who care about Israel there are 3 that couldn't care less only as far as it serves a useful purpose in the ME. The reason so many Jews are in leadership roles in places of power is for the same reason so many blacks are in the NBA. If Swedes were better at basketball, there would be nothing but Swedes there and nobody would talk about a Swedish conspiracy to dominate the game.

Jews value education and excelling in study far more than anyone else as a group except maybe the Asians. Does anyone seriously think it's a 'Zionist' plot that there are so many Jewish medical Dr.s and PhD.s in the sciences? Do they all care about Israel so much that every action they do is to help it's existence and further it's cause? How about those wealthy Jewish commercial real-estate moguls? All of them would lay down their life for a place they have never been? For every Sheldon Adelson there a 4 other wealthy Jews who will lobby Congress for their own interests and not Israels. The idea is childish and ridiculous.

There certainly are Zionists and they include a wide spectrum of people and they have a lobby group called AIPAC that convinces wealthy donors (not all Jewish, by the way) who is a reliable Israel supporter in Congress, of which there are many because of the considerable size of the donations that can be had. Remove that money and Congress' interest in Israel would quickly become academic.

The Globalists are ecumenical. If you can help consolidate power into the circle of global governance of corporate rule, then you are in. Lots of Chinese are now part of the circle of power, yet I doubt their conversion to Judaism is a plausible answer.

I expect the down votes to be far more than up and I'll get some not so gentle urgings to read the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and other nonsense from some crazy Rabbis or even the Torah telling his people to take over the world.

Then again, I can easily make the claim, grounded in historical fact, that the Norse had a secret mandate to take over Europe in which they pretty much accomplished, more or less. Rather than turning the conquered subjects Norse, the opposite happened and they were themselves assimilated into the people they conquered.

Anyone on ZH feeling particularly Jewish outside of enjoying a bagel or two?

The Zio-NWO boogeyman is a nice cartoon fantasy for the white power crowd, but the real globalists can be Catholic, Anglican, Presbyterian or a devout Atheist as well as a Jew. You'll see more Jews at the top of the globalists rosters for the same reason you'll find Jews at the top of every field of endeavor. They're smart, they study hard and they help each other.

Kind of like all those Bones-men who turn into Pilgrims. Still no Jews in their Country Clubs but they also seem to have an outsize presence on the wheels of power. Strangely enough, a lot of Rhodes Scholars find their way in the in crowd too.

A long rambling welcome, but I had to get this one off my chest because of the bullshit that tries to pass itself off as learned intelligence around here.

 

 

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 02:18 | 5779495 Beans
Beans's picture

Hi Shovelhead,

Thank you for the welcome and your reply.

Unfortunately though, since the time of having made my post, I have gotten caught up in the middle of a cluster fuck in one department and a shitstorm in another. Management and directors are involved so I may very well not be back for a while, sorry.

Yes, you are right in regards the 'Anglo' contribution made by the British (I really just mean the English when I say that) to the purposes of an ostensible "agenda" of a globalist and somewhat nefarious nature. This should, by rights, be taken fairly into account and noted when one considers the cruddy state of affairs we all find ourselves in these days. However, I strongly diasagree with your views on Zionism and Zionists but will need to make my case another time as I have too much to do right now.

To tell you the honest truth, I wouldn't consider myself either learned or intelligent, just smart enough to wait and watch what the other lemmings do and, usually, based on that to then steer clear of cliffs :D

Regards,

Beans.

Fri, 02/13/2015 - 02:20 | 5779498 Beans
Beans's picture

Apologies, I meant to upvote you but clicked on the down arrow by accident. It seems there is no way to reverse this.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:04 | 5775679 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Russia defaulted and rebounded because of oil and gas resources,    If Greece defaults olive oil and tourism will not do it.   However gas pipeline revenue and military base leases would help.  US and EU know this and will put a premium on debt forgivness especially since Ukraine is not going according to plan.  Formula is  value of military base leases + revnue from gas pipeline leases = debt forgiveness.  The rest can be bailout at low interest rates extended over a longer time period.

Greek problem solved although Ukraine still a problem with no prospects  other than continual cease fires, lost lives. Solution is a split Ukraine according to regional voter preferances with each side ( East and West )  financing reconstruction.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:16 | 5775731 Ajax4Hire
Ajax4Hire's picture

"The suspense is terrible, I hope it will last" (Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being Earnest; or Willy Wonka, 1970 movie)

I need more money to fix the problem of giving me more money.

I know Greece is acting petulant but I can't help cheer them on.  Greece has clearly acted like a teenager with their father's credit card; hoping to out-spend and out-run the debt.  It is now catching up, looming over the entire country.  The tidal wave of borrowed money is about to crash and the response is to DEMAND MOAR!  Dad, I need more money to fix the problem of giving me more money.

Which probably speaks to the way the entire Central Banking system has been acting.  When one of the minions stands up and demands moar and you cheer!

"The suspense is terrible, I hope it will last"

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:38 | 5775803 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Meanwhile in Spain

Georgy Schwatz's latest dry run of an Orange Revolution!  Wonder who owns the Company and if it's bankrupt like everything else with a sizeable insurance policy payout?

Cause when you don't get what you want there's always sabotage!

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:34 | 5775817 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Yanis Varoufakis is said to be the smartest Greek in the world (IQ 189).

Let's see if IQ is of any use for politicans; I doubt it.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 11:41 | 5775829 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Let's see if IQ is of any use for politicans; I doubt it.

You're right.  What good is a 189 IQ if you don't have nuclear weapons to back it up?  -William Kristol

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 15:30 | 5777106 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I'd say a talent for Machiavellian cleverness rather than raw intelligence will produce a better politician. A knowledge of human nature and how to move that nature to your advantage is a talent that is available to those not of lofty IQ numbers.

You can see this talent on display used by children on their parents in store aisles every day even though it is more of a brute force variety.

Thu, 02/12/2015 - 12:15 | 5775950 MarketWizard
MarketWizard's picture

Its amazing looking back how much bad press, bad publicity Greece received..Its citizens portrayed as lazy, tax cheating, freeloaders all done to make the common perception hate them, to villify them before they took everything including their underwear from them...So no one would support them..

Greece's fight is EVERY common man and woman's fight.......there so great at not paying taxes but no one seems to care of  the TWO TRILLION went"missing" by rumsfeld.....HYPOCRISY

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