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Spot The Mal-Investment Boom
It's hard to avoid the feeling that the world is over-supplied...
Spot the credit-based mal-investment boom
One of these things is a non-financialized index of real transaction costs in the real world... and the other is an index of assets that are heavily financialized...
It appears the artificially-inflated financialized 'boom' has busted...
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ONE WORD BITCHEZ : ILLUSION
Gotta be some margin and additional collateral calls a comin'
Look up in the sky! It's a bird, it's a plane, it's the elite's personal jets flying to their Paraguayan ranches
Everything becomes so obvious when your an Austrian. Keynesians look at that chart and start asking "how much more credit needs to be created to boost demand"...
...or how can we level or blow the fuck out of everything to create demand again.
My answer to them is always "Demand for what exactly? Be specific!"
Given global debt and cheap money levels it's hard for even these asshats to deny that the earth is already saturated (no more demand).
Keynesian economics has morphed into a "free lunch" club.
Sorry, that's not how things work in the real world, especially with 7+ billion people (and growing) all competing for a higher standard of living and all the real commodities and energy that make that possible. Demand for real shit is there, demand for bullshit paper/digital promises? not so much.
True but those 7 billion people have to have something of value to exchange for that real stuff, and many of them don't.
love will keep us alive :-) but really, competition still exists in crony capitalism, for the scraps under the table that is... so instead of paying that lady to hand craft your meatball sub, now lets get a machine to do it... so she can't pass the algebra test required to service the machine? so get your nailgun and take her out then.. place your bets trader joe, i'm sure you passed algebra, barely
I would argue that Keynes' sole purpose was to offer up the perfect High Priest gibberish to ecourage the FSA, and enable the State.
If the BDI drops much more it will be so cheap to get one's gold back using ships!
Everyone will want thier gold back
Nah... Estancia De Cafayate... Or at least that's what they were trying to sell me... Did Doug and his team change flight plans to Uruguay...?
SPX 2100!
So if I'm getting this right, 'highly bullish' for S&P?
Yes - because it's DIFFERENT this time
My candidate for the next "trigger mechanism" to set off a bust, right under their noses....
New York City commercial-residential real estate
What will also accompany this is the growing recognition that most of the Northeast USA will be frozen solid every winter, due to rapid cooling from another solar minimum, the first since the War of 1812.
That's a pretty tenuous theory. Rents have been going up in NYC. NYers are also used to cold, shitty, gray weather. That's what JetBlue is for.
I think I'll go have a bowel movement and digest this information later. Based on a quick glance I can only come to the conclusion that this is unambiguously bullish!
Remind me again, what isn't financialized now? Seems to me that the bankers and financiers are the fucking problem.
It has been like that for millenia. It always happens when governments get off the gold standard, print too much money, fight too many wars, promise too much to the people, governments get too big or get too corrupt.
Bulshit, the historical record is showing about 50-100 year cycles of real growth/enlightenment and then social/moral decay.
Interesting times...
Good for us, more opportunity. No risk no reward righ? Personally I wouldn't want it any other way.
speaking of risk ...
. and
being a natural broken clock contrarian,
the take away message
is obviously "buy stocks" so i must conclude it
is time to sell.
.
…the historical record is showing…
So, I’ve been logging a lot of time with Martyn Lloyd Jones’ 366 lessons from the book of Romans ( http://www.mljtrust.org/collections/book-of-romans/ ) and he covers some interesting information regarding the philosophies of historical narratives around sermon 297, (which was, interestingly enough, originally delivered around 1965). Ranging from the “repeating / rhyming” genre to the “no connection” punctiliar variety, his typically affable manner of presenting a reasonable balance for either’s subscription is tempered by the overall security in knowing the end has already been settled, thereby allowing for a “Christian” point of view to be one of peaceful acceptance.
Would that it were that easy.
Jmo.
The race to the bottom has never travelled in a straight line however the trendline seems quite clear? We won't pull out of this race to the bottom without a change in ethics, and an end to moral relativism.
Stock market average PEs of 50 will be normal soon enough.
Federal Reserve infinite debt and QE continues for years.
amazon pe's for all !
BDI will scream higher when everyone in China demands an Iphone 6
Iphones are already made in china
One more bust to go...
Indeed, we are reaching the point where nobody will be shorting or selling. Then it will get interesting.
Testing new account testing...
5x5
You're not going to try and sell us something are you? If you start talking about your sister's best friend's lesbian lover making thousands sitting at home, I'm going to kick your ass.
Haha No, no I will not.
there is simply no way of avoiding a 20-year period of bankrtuptcy, debt repudiation, contract abrogation, default, etc. etc. etc.
so enough with the QE already. we might as well get it over with.
all we're doing now is postponing radical surgery as the cancer spreads.
I think we may be past the point of surgical intervention. Now what?
It's not about helping you, it's about a relatively small number of douchebags holding onto power a little longer.
It's hard to avoid the feeling that the world is over-supplied...
...with easy money looking for yield.
FT Alphaville has been great on this...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/04/28/1837802/on-the-intriguing-drop-in-commodity-correlation/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/09/2116331/the-bis-has-a-very-different-take-on-oil-financialisation-effects/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/oil-layoffs-top-100-00...
I thought the malinvestment boom is the S&P 500...
undoubtedly - love all the calling out of malinvestment in real goods and essential commodities while shit like SHAK, AMZN, GPRO, LNKD, TSLA, and hundreds more float ever higher on ever hotter air
CMG, PNRA, Potbelly, priceline, soon to be Fortune 100 companies.
"innovation is expensive..."
The Swedish central bank lowered the policy rate to negative -0.1% today and said it's far from any lower bound.
The reaction in commentary sections of major newspapers? "Finally, the CB stops ruining the Swedish economy!"
I can't help but wonder how future macroeconomy pundits will view the 2010's. Hardly with admiration...
Will a Swedish bank pay me to take out a billion dollar loan and start a branch office there?
Do tell...
Yes, apparently there really is "no cost" for capital anymore....
stupid fucks, all four of them...
you mean oversupplied with ships? I totally agree. This article is complete and utter garbage. amateur hour on ZH.
Greetings to all the Zero Hedge posters,
This is my second post and, having joined up (after a belatedly extended acc verification process?), would like to say how much I enjoy the witty posts made by you guys, which is most times.
My reason for joining was so as to weigh in on the poll/debate regarding the accent of the foreign merc in the Ukraine which some posters had speculated might be South African. Well, as a Saffa of British extract I can tell you all quite confidently that he is neither S. African nor British. He absolutely has to be American (North East coast perhaps?) or maybe Canadian at a stretch.
Anyway, I look forward to interacting with you all from time to time. FYI, if you need to know, I am absolutely dead set against the "Zionist" agenda. Well, it's either appropriately described as a Zionist agenda or otherwise as a flavour of 'Anglo-Zionist' agenda, but with strong overtones of 'Zionist', and I shall be opposing it at every opportunity. There are people intent on pushing us all into destruction and I refuse to stand idly by while they do so.
For the rest, have a great day,
Beans
This was actually definitively determined-- he was a Brit mercenary. Somebody (not here at ZH) found the guy's Facebook page.
So much for being able to determine accents from a tiny sound clip! Everyone had differing opinions, but there was virtually 100% agreement that he was NOT British. LOL!
Fuck me, well how about that. It honest to god is not any kind of Brit accent I have ever come across before. Seriously, Brits don't speak like that. He must have spent time in America or elsewhere and developed a mixed accent of sorts?
Can you point me to your source, please?
you also, greetings.
.
warning, watch your ps&qs, and the entrapment
trolls, the hate mongers and paranoid obsessives.
know it is all recorded to be used against you
at a moments notice not of your choosing.
and here, one last word of advice. i received
it myself from a very wise and brilliant poster
some 5 years ago.
"these "people" are not your friends." do not
be fooled by the flickering lights.
.
of course, i am different, i am a real person
and if you too are a person i would be happy
and honored to be your friend. just don't
ask me for any money or favors too soon in the
relationship.
.
anyway poems^tm
Thank you kindly and will do.
Have a shitstorm breaking out at work so will not be able to interact for a bit, sorry.
You're a fucking retard. If you know what "Zionism" is, then it has no application to anything that's going on in Central Banking.
is that anyway to say "hello"?
would your mother be proud to
know you speak to strangers that way?
I think that is simply a "If this is your first night at fight club you have to fight" kind of hello...
oh, i forgot. apologies.
Haha very funny.
Christ, you're the fucking retard for suggesting there is no relationship between Zionism and 'Central Banking'. Applications/Relations = equally apt.
Mal-investment.
How quaint.
The Magic Fiat Pudding produces only good and gooder investment.
Maybe the US West Coast 29 Port Shutdown this long weekend will actually "show" there is too much supply and no one cares if the ports shut down (temporarily).
Fascinating !
silver is a commodity, plenty of malinvestment took place there too.
yea but, it was malinvestment with infinite legs
unlike other moral hazard and malinvestment with
no legs.
Given both lines are now heading lower than 2009's 25% Great-Dip in global trade for ~6 months, whose shape was then still unknown, I'm sure the global economy is in rude health.
The Baltic Dry Index is driven by fleet developments and ton-mile developments, not commodity prices. One could also look at the BDTI, the BCTI and the BLPGI, these indexes have recovered....These are shipping market indices, not economic indicators!
"The Baltic Dry Index is ...a shipping market indice, not an economic indicator!"
Yep.
Although one may argue that an over-supply of shipping capacity is a result of reduced cargo for the ships to carry.
Building and outfitting ships is a long-cycle activity. It takes years from order to place-in-service. A ship's useful lifespan is 20+ years. Business cycles are shorter. So there will be periods of over-availibility of shipping capacity.
Like the current situation.
Keynes, Keynes, Keynes, his theory has never ever been solely implemented.
I don't think it would work, even it was, it dismisses natural supply, and demand, for social engineered supply, and demand.
in 1913 the mechanism for Americas failure was cemented, the quasi partnering of govt., and the .0005% of the wealthiest in the world, lawfully, (?).
with that partnering, personal, and political ideologies were given vast amounts dangerous powers, to be used against america, and empower themselves.
redistribution of personal assets, socializing, (99%), of america started in the 30,s under the guise of helping america, utilizing the Keynesian theory.
today, 2015 america is at the tipping point of a socially dependent population, as they knew in the 1930's socially dependent citizens, (sheep), are easier to deal with, and deal around.
1937 america could've been 2015 america if, Americans were more socialized, and less independent.
Keynes would be appalled, with krugman, and others using his name, and theory as an excuse for what has been done from 2008- till present.
I truly think, in 2008, the most powerful in america, and elsewhere, agreed to take the calculated risk that there were enough citizens socialized that they could do just as their doing.
I also truly think the govt. (fed.), will, when the markets fall, buy stocks in the open market, openly, under the guise of a bail-out, (ie. gm),.
most of the market participants will be grateful, their 50% loss, turned to 20% loss without doing anything, not understanding their overpriced stocks now will be worth maybe 30% of their pre-market plunge.
the fed's hft's will short the markets all the way down, and buy at close, or under true value.
for totalitarianism you need socialized citizens, federalized production, and nationalized banks, 2015 ?