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The Terms Of The Ukraine Cease-Fire: Presenting "East Ukraine"
From Stratfor
The Terms of Ukraine's Cease-Fire
Following marathon talks in Minsk that lasted more than 17 hours, the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement that appears to align with the Kremlin's demands. The document calls for a cease-fire to begin Feb. 15, the withdrawal of weapons and the enactment of constitutional reforms in Ukraine. Though Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has denied that the agreement includes provisions for the creation of autonomous regions or the federalization of Ukraine, the document on the whole does fulfill several of the Kremlin's long-standing demands with regards to the status of Donbas.
The new cease-fire agreement is based largely on the original one that went into effect Sept. 5. It focuses on the withdrawal of heavy artillery systems, which have been prominent throughout the conflict, within 14 days of the cease-fire's implementation. The new cease-fire requires these artillery systems to be withdrawn far beyond their maximum effective ranges, a move that will create a buffer to prevent escalation and heavy artillery fire on the demarcation line. Missing from the agreement, however, is a decision on the fate of the still heavily contested Ukrainian positions in Debaltseve. Because both sides will have to withdraw their artillery systems, the result will be a very deep area without artillery cover in the center of the demarcation line.
The agreement's most important impact on the military balance is its requirement to withdraw foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine. Separatists have depended heavily on the combat power of the Russian military and Russian volunteer forces. Without these, the separatists would have been incapable of repelling the Ukrainian offensive, and in the future would be rendered much weaker than their Ukrainian counterparts.
The signing of the new Minsk agreement, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin's direct participation in the negotiations, points to the Kremlin's willingness to at least partially de-escalate the conflict at this time. The agreement includes some vague measures and conditions that all sides may ultimately chose not to implement. Several key points of contention remain unaddressed, and there are still many opportunities for the agreement to break down if they are not resolved. Therefore, political will, rather than the actual terms of the agreement, will determine whether a significant de-escalation is to take place.
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OT bankster cabal...
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/shoot-bank-of-america-now-the-case...
David Stockman dead man walking..
Dead man talking...
#no nuclear war?
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is unhappy that Ukraine’s NATO bid was not discussed during the Minsk talks in “Normandy Format”.
http://tersee.com/#!q=ukraine&t=text
Nothing will change. If someone dies they find whatever passport suits the narrative at the time. I mean seriously what kind of rebel fights with a passport and various social security data in their pockets. Fake made up rebels is what.
No passport?
No papers?
No pickup money.
No get first aid.
No get food.
No go home.
To Kiev!
The Ukies will pause, reload, threaten and attack again this spring, and will hit the iron wall of the NovoRossiyans. This will continue until the USSA gets bored and/or distracted by some other foreign war of aggression against the flavor of the day.
Stratfor? ?
Tyler, what the fuck are you posting american propaganda pieces for?
If you want to see into the sick piece of shit that is George Friedman's mind, read his The Next 100 Years.
Try not to pay for your copy, though, since the odds are you'll throw it into the garbage after a day or so, like I did with mine. Still, if you really enjoy neocon war porn, maybe you can get off on it.
Friedman already knows the date and time WW3 will start......
>>>the attack will place at a time in which the Americans will be taken completely off guard, and hypothesizes 5:00 p.m. on November 24, 2050 (Thanksgiving Day) as a potential time.
Just like the Turks and the Japs... to attack Amurica while it's best and brightest are glued to their television screens, watching the Lions' game.
George Friedman is a complete lunatic. I wouldn't read his book as it's just a complete waste of time. Might as well watch cable tv if I choose to waste time.
“Je suis Charlie”
Now that Porky has 17 billion and the USSA are going to arm him in the next few months he will think he is invincible, if I was fighting for NAF i would not stop fighting on the premis of another bullshit cease fire where the Ukaine junta will re grup and re arm with USSA weapons and America idvisior's . America will not let the cease fire work anyway as they have to start a war with Russia if not in Ukraine then in Syria , the economy is falling apart and they are not going to take the blame for it .USA USA USA(and all that shit)
When this cease fire is violated by WUke, if I was a EUke fighter I would gather my family and cross into Russia to safety until Russia mobilized it's forces and took the front line of the war. Why fight and die to regain the advantage a third time only to have Putin let the WUke's escape to safety under a cease fire each time.
Also, the next time the WUke's attack I expect it to be planned by the US/NATO and for the casualities to be much higher for the EUke's.
I would not fight and seek Putin directly entering, I would take family to safety in Russia and only return to fight once Putin has entered and started fighting. Or just stay in Russia until Putin finishes the fight since he let them escape twice before.
Does this not make you question Putin's motivations?
Abiddodgie, between debt repayments, gas payments and oligarchic theft, the 17 billion will disappear faster than the proverbial snowflake in hell.
The Ukie gold bullion grew wings pretty fast.
I hear some of the "free" weapons they get end up in the hands of Assad, LMFAO! Never underestimate the power of greed........
I'd say Putin's motivations are to do everything possible in order not to be drawn into a trap that will enable Obummer, et al., to claim "He started it!"
This is all about manufacturing the casus belli for the sheeple of the western world.
How many times have they alleged Russian troops have invaded Ukraine again? (I've lost count)
"I'd say Putin's motivations are to do everything possible in order not to be drawn into a trap that will enable Obummer, et al., to claim "He started it!""
I certainly hope that is not the case, as it is a very poor move on Russia's part.
The war cold war has already begun; Russia being blamed is not just an inevitability but an ongoing event that will not stop at this point. Russia needs to make decisions around themselves getting blamed and sanctioned. Trying to undo these certainties is imprudent.
It is time for heavy handed economic and military tactics. Time is no longer a luxury.
Here is the best analysis out there on what just transpired and what the future will bring from the always penetrating intellect of Paul Craig Roberts:
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/02/12/minsk-peace-deal-farce-sellou...
Good write up. My take which the article reinforces is that when the WUke's relaunch their attack either
1. Putin enters directly with a heavy hand and is willing to engage the WUke's and their NATO support or
2. Putin is a slime ball who just used the EUke's as Libya, Syria and other were used and sacrificed or
3. Putin/Russia believe themselves to be in a very weak position even regarding a country of ethnic russians that adjoins the border or
4. Putin is just serving the Russian elite who have an agenda that puts them first (before country) and it will be difficult to determine what their game is.
This latest abuse by BAC’s London operation is, in fact, just the tip of the iceberg—–the symptom of an unreformed banking regime that is rotten to the core and that remains a clear and present danger to financial stability and true economic recovery. And not by coincidence there stands at the very epicenter of that untoward regime a $2 trillion financial conglomerate that is a virtual cesspool of malfeasance, customer abuse, operational incompetence, legal and regulatory failure, downright criminality and complete and total lack of accountability at the Board and top executive level.
In short, BAC’s six-year CEO, Brian Moynihan, is guilty of such chronic malfeasance and serial management failure that outside the cushy cocoon of TBTF he would have been fired long ago. Indeed, it is hard to believe that he would have survived very long even running a small chain of car washes in east Nebraska.
Matt Taibbi . . . in 2012:
All credit to Taibbi for what he has done. What he has shied away from, however, is recognizing the Tribal component of our predicament. And that is a lacuna too broad to ignore anymore.
think he will be allowed to reveal the latest names of the top 10 obelisk families? Think he will even be able to research them? Used to be, according to .... to even mention them was to die. maybe not today, but maybe !
Did STRATFOR notice that Poroshenko didn't sign the "agreement"?
Sorry, how can anyone call this an "agreement" if it was not signed by the President of Ukraine?
How does this then demonstrate the "political will" to implement the "agreement"?
Who exactly will make sure the terms of the "agreement" are adhered to? You know, like the terms of the Minsk agreement that were ignored?
How do the Novorussian forces benefit by allowing the Ukrainian military to take their weapons and walk out of the Debaltsevo cauldron, where they are now trapped? How would this not totally demoralize the NAF?
All this "agreement" does is guarantee that the next time the UAF comes streaming into the Donbass, the only way to stop it will be with the Russian Armed Forces.
That is, if Putin decides not to "negotiate".
Zakharchenko leader in Donbass states, at the signing, that there will be NO further negotiations if this treaty is broken." . Should the UAF encroach again well I guess From Russia with Love. Great video with him on RT or Pravda. He speaks very very sincerely.
He who advocates more government as a cure for what government has wrought, is bought.
The banksters need to repay us.
Now if he were advocating guillotines, he'd have my attention, and respect.
When I read how the separatists were being backed by Russian interventionists, I had to scroll back up to see the source. Ahhh, Stratfor, no doubt controlled by the CIA.....
No mention of any foreigners fighting for the East?
I agree. "This Party is just getting started."
Geneva Agreement, 1954. Let's just say, at a minimum, the first few innings went to Team Putin.
Get ready for some CIA-orchestrated false flag attacks to ensure the ceasefire goes off the rails...F*ck the EU!!
http://olduvai.ca
^ This. There are no shekels to be made in peace.
Just steer clear of any properties owned and insured by Lucky Larry Silverstein.
Double arrow up! My thoughts EXACTLY. They'll bide their time until they need a distraction from unpleasantness on the home front and then suddenly bombs will be flying in Ukraine again....
Has anyone started a pool yet? My guess is less than twelve hours.
I'm betting on until the trapped Nazis and their CIA/ Merc trainers are safely behind the W Uke lines.
It might take more than 12 hours because there seems to be enough of them in there to prompt Porky to hit the negotiating table. They have too many folks in there that they prefer to remain nameless is my guess.
After that, I'm pulling my bets off the table. I can feel a big 7 out roll coming.
There never was or will be a ceasefire.
We will find out of the continued fighting when it is politically convenient for us to know.
Nah, it's far more sinister than that: The Kiev junta and US will find a way to bring Ukraine into NATO during the "peace" phase.
First, they will come in as NATO Peacekeeping Observers, to get an official foothold. After that, they will creep in slowly and incrementally -- each time mollifying the "pissed again" Russians.
Neocons NEVER give up, and they never stop their advance and boa-like encirclement and constriction of their prey.
By what magic might this silly thing work?
Waste of time ! Nice colored lines though. Now go and tell the guys on the front line that they are supposed to follow those lines, and watch them laugh their asses off...
as soon as he pulled out, a thunderous explosion was felt for miles.
he flanked the enemy and pulled up through the rear. the end result was a gaping hole in their frontlines.
-sgt foreskin in the battle of pubis
Seems like the CIA .... is on both sides .... of every conflict .... I think that is implausible .... it's like the soft porn .... of high expectations .... even your beloved Putin .... is not that ubiquitous ?
Where Washington, London and Tel Aviv will create the biggest mass grave for themselves in the history of mankind!
only place i see the words East Ukraine, is in the Title...
This is just a breather and regroup of the west (Banking/NATO/EU/Bo Biden) in the face of a quick unraveling failure. I say they will next plan to go whole hog (Lie to seduce GRC, move deeper into UKR, move on Syria, ect....) and get it all started being that they have been illuminated to the fact they are not at all illluminated. Bust out the POP-SECRET to see what "Mr. Check Observed"-Putin has waiting.
Ya this whole agreement is fugazi. It won't see March 1st...
This is EXACTLY what the US Gov monkeys wanted. They can throw the Ukraine thing on the backburner for a few weeks until they need to pull out a false flag distraction...
My guess is that we've got some really lousy economic numbers coming down the pipe and they'll desperately need something to shift the focus of the american idiots to.
#FuckNATO-NAZIS, ahahahahahahahahahahaha, USA Nato-nazis puppets got fucked. More shit on Obangos face as yet another plan owing to his prowess as a Negro blows up in his face. Good Morning Novorussiya, you guys earned it thru your sacrifice written in blood, now if only Americans had the sack to turn on their masters in the same way.
If 10% of my fellow citizens would turn off the brain washing "programming" device in their, well in every room of their house things would be quite different. Till then they got the sacks but their balls are in a trance.
I think Stratfor knows that its not the combat power of the Russian Military in Ukraine, but Don and Kuban Cossack volunteers. Also war hardened Chechen volunteers fight against Kiev. This is not the official narrative so Stratfor is tweeking the story to fit the propaganda.
Putin is shrewd and cunning. When and if this peace treaty fails he can say, "We tried" then a real invasion of Ukraine will begin lasting a week and capturing Kiev. Remember Georgia had US advisors and weapons and Russian Military force rolled across Georgia like a warm knife through butter. Kuban Cossack volunteers were there and killed Western paid Ukrainian mercenaries fighting for Georgia as bozo puppet Shakashvili ate his tie.
We will all see the YouTube videos of the US puppet Porkyshenko hanging in the Maidan and Banderist Nazis executed by firing squad!!!
Chechens were fighting FOR Kiev.
Both sides, actually.
The Russian trained Chechen counter terrorists volunteered to come fight against their old enemies.
Sure but the fanatical jihadi types were fighting for the west.
The chocolate king signed a cease fire before, he betrayed it. Never trust a person who betrayed a treaty.
Funny how our Nobel Peace Prize winner is nowhere in sight when there is a peace agreement to be signed...
Barry is a useless puppet!
. . . unless your a Bankster.
<---Fear
<---He is above all that
True but he was only +4 on the back 9 today.
So , you're sayin' he needs to improve his lie on a regular basis?
It is unlikely forces in Kiev will accept this peace bid, and rebels will react harshly to any artillery shelling of cities after the cease fire.
This is not grounds for a settlement to the issues, it is a gambit to gain a cease fire for a badly defeated Ukrainian Army, for the second time a Cease Fire will save them from total battlefield defeat. I can tell you, the rebels were fooled the first time, no it appears they may be fooled a second time.
A Coup in Kiev may happen any time now. The fascists who are the main supporters of the war and the Junta Government are deamding more war. So, while leaders on Germany, France and Russia may agree, Ukraine signed a death warrent for it's current Junta. And rebels have set of a firestorm of anger over another sell out to a defeated Ukrainian Army on the battle field.
The USA must now decide. It is steps in with arms shipments to Kiev now, after this agreement, Rebels are not going to take kindly to it.
Let's be frank, either split Ukraine, like NATO used armed force to split Yugoslavia in the 90's, or prepare for more war.
Poroshenko tells of buildup during previous ceasefire:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAVFhPu5fio
intention was all the time obvious
They should try some more "offensives", considering that after each of them Ukies lose ground...
Jack Burton, only time will tell but if the Ukie army is forced to leave behind most of its equipment, then this will be a signal victory for Novo Rossiya. The beaten soldiers of the Ukie army will mostly return home, and tell everyone how they were screwed, badly led, denied material, etc further demoralizing future conscripts.
Meanwhile, the tarbaby of the Nazi Ukraine will still be the west's problem and expense. With the exception of Monsanto and friends, the Ukraine is a largely worthless country composed of brain washed idiots controlled by criminal oligarchs. No one in their right mind will seriously consider opening new enterprises. Instead, the country will sink deeper into an economic morass.
Having said this, the Kiev Klowns wil try to invade NovoRossiya at least one more time before they finally get the message.
Having said this, the Kiev Klowns wil try to invade NovoRossiya at least one more time before they finally get the message.
Chocula has one more option. He can declare war on Russia
>>>Let's be frank, either split Ukraine... or prepare for more war.
Ultimately, a split WILL happen, as even the Russians admit that incorporating Galicia into the Ukrainian SSR was a mistake; the issue is how much of Ukraine hangs with Galicia and Novopoland, and how much with Donbass and Novorussia.
Intermediate term, the Russian do not want a split, certainly not anywhere near the current cease-fire line; they want a "federal Ukraine", so that over a period of months to years, multiple oblasts will be able to distance themselves from rule by Kiev, and move toward Russia.
Jack:
Isn't this in Putin's wheelhouse? He knows the immediate stress this puts on Chocula who can't accept or look like a quisling who "lost" Donetzsk. Putin gets what he wants with appearing statesmanlike thus blunting Obama's shrill insistence on deeper sanctions.
If the Rada rejects, well now. Who is the one committed to war? And if there is a violent coup in Kiev, that works too. How would the Maidan 3 putchists fight two civil wars at the same time against the East and West?
This Minsk peace deal is a farce, afeel good piece of paper for the same people who backed Kiev Nazi's, only frontline losers want a cease fire (to rearm/regroup),
I say: kick these fucking Nazi's asses all the way to the Dniepner.
As I said before, fuck the Dnieper. This won't end till Russian troops are at the Rhine and Germany is Russified.
What do you suppose they'll rename Frankfurt? Duginsk would be a nice touch.
You guys take your fantasy world for reality...
Frankfurt's new name. Putingrad
Obamablad, as an honorarium.
("Without you, all this would not be possible.")
Strange how self determination for Kosovo within Sebia was supported yet the same for E.Ukr is repelled.
USA still fighting the cold war and scoring points against its old foe.
Obama's Foreign Policy is alot like my Dad's strategy on child rearing. "Do as I say, not as I do"
STRATFOR equals Gov. propaganda and lie.
I did not read it at all.
But why is it published on ZH?
Nor did I. This is just a couple guys in an office at CIA headquarters issuing information to confuse and divert.
Actually, it's a guy who makes a pretty good buck selling business clients his confidential analysis on which way the wind is blowing in a given area.That he publishes publicly easy to verify information online is just his storefront to lure in the paying customers.
That he may have a couple of blabbermouths in the CIA grabbing an envelope or two on the side just makes his information 'more actionable'. Anyone who can make policy is using taxpayer funded information from the 'gang that can't shoot straight' CIA.
Stratfor doesn't have a large enough footprint in media to be used a a dis-info outlet.
If you want to sell toilets in Kyrgyzstan but are worried about your wholesaler getting 'nationalized' you go pay Mr. Friedman to tell you what your odds are.
Sometime commerce is it's own reward.
This sucks. It won't stop the killing it will prolong it. Putin will force them to let the idiots out of the caldron and then the civilian terror bombing will start up again. Gah.
Locals have no use for several thousands prisoners, and have no means to care for them. But they won't let them take any guns and equipment (or what's left of it...) out with them, rest assured !
I was hoping they would take Kharkov and Mariupol by Easter
"The agreement's most important impact on the military balance is its requirement to withdraw foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine. Separatists have depended heavily on the combat power of the Russian military and Russian volunteer forces. Without these, the separatists would have been incapable of repelling the Ukrainian offensive, and in the future would be rendered much weaker than their Ukrainian counterparts."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Exactly. +100
Ukrainian military chief of staff has said on video that Kiev is not fighting Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.
Look they have 3 days left to wipe out those BOGEYMEN.
NATO have ordered EXTRA BODY BAGS from Bangladesh for their fallen heroes.
Grexit, the best solution that no one wants.
Bottom line here. Go to STRAFOR's WEBSITE. Bring up their mgmt and read their biographies.
Read Wiki's piece. See what you think. I know what I think, they are a thinly disguised MIC version of MSM.
Because only 1 in 100,000 people know who Stratfor is and what they do?
Hardly mainstream.
Why not turn on network news if you want dis-info. They serve it up fresh all day, every day.
"The agreement's most important impact on the military balance is its requirement to withdraw foreign forces and mercenaries from Ukraine. Separatists have depended heavily on the combat power of the Russian military and Russian volunteer forces."
That's what I call a face-saving statement, as a Ukie officer has recently confessed there are NO Russian military in Donbass. On the other hand, the NAF in Debaltsevo say they keep intercepting communications in American, German and French from inside the cauldron.
And Putin, who has excellent intelligence, has mumbled something about Nato troops inside Donbass. Quite loudly, in fact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-v6Jw9rsWCE (My Putin)
This song should be the morning workout song for the Zerohedge readers.
A Polish chick from Galicia singing in Russian, telling Uke boys to go kill their brothers while she sucks big fat American and dual passport dick. Guess she is a madam looking to recruit Ukraine girls for the brothels of Europe and Tel Aviv. She looks to me more likea transexual Eurokraut or a Rocky Horror picture show lead transvestite.
how pathetically servile
at first thought she was total blind, crawling along wall with fingers
so beside terrible song, weak voice,..needing glasses
silly propaganda while Kiev murders civilians.
when will these pollacks discover they been tricked?
"You tricked me!"
Kuban Cossack Choir
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdPvaIXxm4Q
I prefer bright eyes strong women with great voices...
Maybe we can hire her to do an Obama song...
"He's on the golf links,
He thinks your freedom stinks
Obama...
Obama."
Letting the forces out of the cauldron (minus the weaponry) may be in VV Putins best interest, as those are mainly constituted from mountain infantry regiment from Transnistria and rear services from regular army.
They will indeed go home with tales of incompetence and betrayal, and contribute to Transnistrian self-rule trend.
What is important, is to take possession of the supply dump near Debaltsevo, as it was originally to be the springboard for the phantom offensive which was supposed to split DNR and LPR in two.
In any case, taking those 5-8k men prisoner is totally counter-productive, as they will anyways be exchanged in the coming days.
The force ought to be destroyed....there....I said it.
Destroyed, you mean kill them all?
8k regulars and conscripts?
The only thing that must be utterly, finally destroyed is Kievan chosenite junta and the leadership of neo-nazi bands.
The 8,000 prisoners are just cannon fodder for the Ziocon US-installed junta in Kiev.
Good point Aaron.
Don't the poitical apparatchiks like Zakh pretty much have to do what Putin tells them on this? But if the cauldron is taken off "boil" without de-arming the Uki's doesn't that run the risk that field commanders like Givi and Mozgovoy will revolt. No way after the January civilian terror bombing will the Donbass citizenry accept letting the Uki's out to fight them again in a month's time.
And no more exchanges of Uki conscripts for whomever is dragged in off the streets in "POW" exchanges.
You prolly mean Transcarpathian mountain infantry.
Just sayin'.
Looks like US puppets in Kiev are getting a few last punches in..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP9xY5iO7Bo#t=10
Ceasefire notice lost in the mail?
That's incoming shelling by the Ukrainian Army onto Luhansk last night.
The ceasefire does not take effect for another couple of days so expect a lot more of this wanton destruction of Donbas by the UA. It saves them having to carry the ammo home. Its just evil.
Stratfor's demarcation lines are different from one displayed in Russian media outlets. Thiere is already room for disagreement on just this point alone.
Yet another article that chooses to make mention of "Russian military power" and "Russian volunteer forces" operating in East Ukraine but which fails to provide a shred of evidence of it.
And also fails to mention that Poroshenko and his fascist cronies are bankrupt and living on Western welfare, so he is getting weaponry and artillery from the West (read US). There is filmed evidence showing that American mercs (officially paid or not) are operating there.
There's no mention of any of this by StratFor.
I think it's reasonable to assume that both sides are providing weaponry and mercs/volunteers in East Ukraine but the Western narrative paints a propaganda picture, claiming that it's only Russia doing it. Not so.
The utterly dishonest and pathetic sound-bite press comment made yesterday by the empty suit David Cameron where he (once again) ranted about Putin's conduct in East Ukraine tells me that he cannot be trusted to speak the truth and is unfit to be PM of Great Britain. Sadly, his opponent the empty head Red Ed Miliband hardly knows what day of the week it is, so he's useless too. He's probably too busy studying his books on Ashkenazi Marxism!
In May, Brits have two major electoral choices: an empty suit -vs- an empty head. Farage will therefore pick up a lot of votes from the misguided and the disillusioned. But it'll be one of the "empties" who becomes the next PM.
Poor Ukrainians, they just got shafted real bad. IMF loans money to Ukraine, Ukraine buys weapons from USA MIC using IMF loans with the rest shared amongst all the hawks and oligarchs. Ukraine hands in or sells off its assets for a pittance, Money never leaves wall street,Ukraine national debt/people get enslaved, money just moves from one US bank to the next across the road. Straight out of the book "Diary of an economic hitman". This is just money laundering on a grand scale hahahah.