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Mark Spitznagel On The 'Myth' Of The Black Swan Event
Submitted by Mark Spitznagel via NYTimes Dealbook,
As André Gide, the French Nobel laureate in literature, once said, “Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.”
Indeed, no one has been listening to the past hundred years of stock market history in the United States.
We have data going back a century that shows the total aggregate valuation of corporate America (think the stock market) in relation to the estimated aggregate replacement value of its stock of capital (think machines, equipment, buildings, chairs, etc.). It is similar in concept to an aggregate price-to-book ratio.
This has come to be known as the Tobin’s Q ratio; the higher the ratio, the higher the price of corporate valuations relative to their tangible capital, and the more “expensive” the stock market.

The Q-ratio (relative to its long-run average)
You would think that this ratio shouldn’t get far out of whack from a long-run average. If average companies became valued high relative to their tangible capital, this would imply that they earn high returns on their existing equipment, and thus further investment in more equipment (growth) should more than “pay for itself” in the form of higher valuations.
But each additional dose of investment would lead to smaller and smaller jumps in valuation, bringing those average companies’ Q ratios back to normal. On the other hand, if average companies’ Q ratios got too low, then it would be natural to assume they would dispose of equipment, or at least stop replacing it, “cutting the fat” and thus pushing their Q ratios back up.
These automatic feedback processes, however, don’t happen in practice, at least not quickly.
The chart above indicates that, throughout the last century, the Q-ratio (for the aggregate of all companies) has swung wildly. Also note that the ratio is exceedingly high today. The only other time it has been higher was at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
The capital stock, though higher, should catch up to the valuations; this isn’t happening. Keynesian economists — most notably the ratio’s namesake James Tobin as well as modern Keynesians — consider this to be a puzzle. It is only a puzzle if you fail to recognize how interest rates that are set by government decree are not equivalent to interest rates that are set by the free market; people react differently to each.
When rates are naturally low, caused by an abundance of patient savers, businesses have the incentive to spend on investment and production; this creates a negative feedback on the ratio. When they are artificially low, and savers are impatiently leveraging, businesses instead have the incentive to spend on stock buybacks and dividends in order to attract the investors who yearn for yields beyond what the artificially distorted market is offering. This drives the ratio, and stock markets, ever higher. Bubbles are not natural and inevitable.
Skeptics will say that less tangible capital is needed in today’s service-based, space-age economy. Even so, our ratio is an aggregate number, and an elevated ratio implies, in Lake Wobegon fashion, that your average entrepreneurs are systematically earning above-average returns on their physical capital. Because our economy is more competitive than ever, the transition to a service economy per se can’t explain a high aggregate Q ratio.
These elevated periods for the Q ratio are clearly unsustainable, because companies cannot borrow and buy back forever. So this highly unnatural mechanism has logical implications not for long-run economic investment and growth (as the Keynesians continue to hope), but instead for short-run stock prices. Complicated statistical analysis is not needed to confirm this.
Each of these high points in the Q ratio — in 1905, 1929, 1936, 1968, 2000 and 2007 — was followed in short order by stock market losses. The peak-to-valley (or the loss from the high price to the low price) subsequent to each high point was 19 percent, 85 percent, 36 percent, 29 percent, 44 percent, and 50 percent, respectively.
Furthermore, one can see the surges in bank credit accompanying these periods and tie them to specific policy moves by the authorities: The Treasury stimulated inflation in the early 1900s; the Fed deliberately inflated in the roaring 1920s to take the pressure off the British pound (which had been devalued during World War I); the Roosevelt administration took the reins off inflation by debasing the gold-content of the dollar in 1933; zealous money printing in the 1960s led to the inevitable collapse of the Bretton Woods system (and complete fiat money was born); money printing continued apace with Alan Greenspan in the 1990s and, following the dot-com crash, into the 2000s. Since late 2008, of course, the Bernanke Fed has engaged in unprecedented monetary expansion.
The bear markets we saw following all of these periods were not dreaded “black swan” events at all. They were perfectly predictable, by economic logic alone, the same logic that says governments cannot manipulate market prices without creating distortions that will always, without exception, be counterproductive.
In the next stock market crash, we will be told that the fault was some surprising economic or geopolitical shock. Let’s remind ourselves now that this will be false, the proximate cause rather than the ultimate cause. The ultimate cause is the same ultimate cause that has been demonstrated to us for over a century: distorted and manipulated markets.
These markets are speaking to us yet again. This time around, we need to listen.
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First!
Second
A bubble collapse is not a black swan.
How do you value a modern business, relative to a business 100 or even 50 years ago? The tangible things that gave a business it's book value has no relation to the intangible things that give a business it's value today.
80 years ago ( more or less) Henry Ford built Rouge River, a vertically integrated assembly plant where he made his own steel! And cars came out the back door.
Today, Apple engineers design a device, patent it, and have it built by Asian slave labor, to be shipped here and sold at a 400% profit.
So how do you relate those two differant models?
OT: Notice friends that ISRAEL has not suffered, evern a scratch, during all these recent current events.
Is Mark trying to redefine the term "Black Swan Event?"
2 Things:
1. There have been 3 black swans and all of them were not predicted by most forecasters so what makes anyone believe that we, human beings, who have lot of ego and greed and believe that we are smarter than mother nature, can predict the next one? It is a false premise to believe in the predictive power of human beings in the first place! MBA's and degrees from Harvard or Ivy League do not make a human being immune to greed and ego, instead it actually makes insider trading and collective bull shit thinking more widely prevalent. And, if we remove the excess money flowing through the US economy or declining US corporations, more and more insider trading guys like Madoff or Rajat Gupta or Enron or SAC will come out.
The West has had 3 financial crises (i.e. in stock markets in specific and economy in general) in the last 15 years. First was the Tech crisis, predicted by a few more than the next 2 crises. Second was the 9/11 and wars that followed with the debt tsunami and the third was the most famous one in 2008/2009 whose after effects still continue to reverbrate through the global economy and whose repurcussions are still being seen in the QE spending to bail out the rich ever since.
Not many saw it coming, else we would not have been privileged to see the demise of Merrill, Lehman and Bear Stearns and the people who do God's work (read GS) would not have cowered under a bridge like a wet pussy (and I use this with the utmost seriousness) and turned themselves into a federally regulated bank (save the rich comes to mind here...).
All these crises were only in the West, not in Africa or China or India. So, you have to use your brain and think why not?
2. I do not believe there will be a major stock correction, though there is a possibility we may see wild gyrations.
Reasons are as follows:
a) Major QE support as farcical debt at a press of a button.
b) Lack of capex spending. In fact, all major corporations from the US, UK, EU, Japan have been retreating back on shore. Look at banks, oil companies, Tech giants etc to name a few. Their global platform keeps shrinking every day we wake up. When any US company sells in Czech or Japan, then they get paid cash which supports the balance sheet.
c) Massive cash on balance sheets
d) Massive corporate profits due to cost cutting and low capex spending for future growth because no one in the world outside of US, EU, UK, Japan likes any of these 4 nations. Just ask Putin, Middle East sheikhs, Indian politicians or Chinese businessmen or African lords. The days of global hegemony and collective control of the world by these 4 bloc of nations has given them a lot of derision and tough rules in order to enter most countries. Tech is a good example like IBM, Microsoft etc who are being thrown out of China etc due to spying.
e) This is an extension of capex spending. Since companies are retreating from offshore and not growing hence their balance sheets are stronger, mostly due to low expenses, no capex, cash due to sales of offshore businesses. IBM is a good example who has sold half of itself and has that much money on balance sheet to safeguard itself, but despite that, its stock is down from USD 215, 2 years to ago to USD 160 today, a decline of giant baby blue of 25% in just the past 2 years. And, it has been a slow and gradual decline. Can you imagine, if they had not cashed out of their PC and server businesses to the Chinese, then what would have happened to its stock price?
f) Again an extension of cash on balance sheets. It allows corporate buy backs of the higest amount unprecedented in US corporate history. This is basically taught in school. If the company is doing well and growing, then it must invest in itself and not pay dividends or keep on balance sheet or do massive stock buy backs. If it pays dividends or does massive buy backs, then it means it has stopped growing. QED. But it does provide a floor to the valuation or stock price.
g) The US tax laws favour the corporations instead of an individual. Corporations can keep money overseas and NOT pay taxes. While an individual cannot. Corporations have amassed billions overseas with no sign of any checks and balances by the US Govt which is a puppet of corporate interests. Just review Apple, they keep billions overseas and save billions in taxes while enjoying the benefit of being a US corporate entity. What a scam! Apple, Twitter, Linkedin, Facebook etc will suffer massive declines because they produce NO benefit to society, they also do not create much employment nor a cascading effect to other sectors. For example, car sector provides employment and sustains thousands more even outside the industry like couriers, shippers, truck drivers, whole cities, bankers, lawyers etc. But all these Tech they create zero cascading effect and their employment can never match a new GM or new Citibank.
h) Quite an important reason. Whenever any company like JPM or IBM or Motorola or AMC theatres have faced a crisis. Think, what has happened? A white knight has always come from one country named China. JPM sold its HQ, IBM sold half of itself. AMC sold all of itself as did Motorola. This creates a new owner but the balance sheet or the company continues to run though with a major impact that profits start flowing to China instead.
i) As any currency depreciates or is tied to a peg, we will see higher values in stocks. In case of currency depreciation, Japan is a good example. While when we look at a peg, HK is a good example. Hence, weaker currency is compensated by higher asset price valuations. We also saw yesterday on ZH when it was indicated that Russia and Saudi are thus far the best performers in stock prices in 2015. Russia is due to weaker currency while Saudi is due to the peg, providing us two more examples.
I hope these reasons are sufficient to show that there may not be much rise in stock valuations. Because Tech may come down and then Healthcare will rise and hence offsetting the negative impact. But there may not be a massive decline.
We can see the stock prices of Shittybank and God's own bank since 2007 to realise that all US banks have stagnated even the best and the largest ones and have not even reached 10% of its value in 2007 (at least for Citibank and many others). Such will be the statis stage of all US corporations that they will neither grow nor rise again. There will be no renaissance in US, because no one outside the US likes US corporations any more.
But due to all above, the stocks may not correct massively and there is a floor for many stock prices and in fact may even lead to higher valuations.
What NoPension said.
It's all intangible. I would hazard a guess that Apple does not own much real-estate out-right, nor office equipment. Just intellectual property, goodwill, shares, and cash.
International borders are the weakest link in the manufacturing chain now.
That depends on your perspective.
Value depends on one's own perspective. Price depends on another's
A royally fucked up, unforced error of a Ukraine policy just might be.
Fifth! It's Friday, and I got a fifth!!
After today's rampapalooza in SPY I need a Quart.
haters gonna hate 8-)
Full retard ghetto
Charting is way too easy.
Predicting markets is almost impossible.
Put your money where your mouth is Spitz. The markets are always open for suckers.
Get a helmet while you can still find one that fits.
I like the bread helmets.
Do they come in cinnamon raisin?
Meanwhile, in germany, in Der Zeit, there is a big discussion going on, why the tank in this picture, taken today in Ukraine, has a German lisence plate.
http://www.zeit.de/politik/aus...
Because photoshop? Who the f*** ever heard of a tank with a license plate?
Definitely not a tank. Troops armored vehicle.
Mr Spitznagel says;
The ultimate cause is the same ultimate cause that has been demonstrated to us for over a century: distorted and manipulated markets.
No, the ultimate cause is God's punishment for mankind's incredible greed and idolatry of money. This time, it will culminate in the destruction of the god and money and God will hand over men to the god of power and tyranny.
Proverbs 1:26-33
"O children, how long will you love childishness, and fools covet those things which are hurtful to themselves, and the unwise hate knowledge? Turn ye at my reproof: behold I will utter my spirit to you, and will shew you my words. Because I called, and you refused: I stretched out my hand, and there was none that regarded. You have despised all my counsel, and have neglected my reprehensions. I also will laugh in your destruction, and will mock when that shall come to you which you feared. When sudden calamity shall fall on you, and destruction, as a tempest, shall be at hand: when tribulation and distress shall come upon you: Then shall they call upon me, and I will not hear: they shall rise in the morning and shall not find me: Because they have hated instruction and received not the fear of the Lord, Nor consented to my counsel, but despised all my reproof.
Therefore they shall eat the fruit of their own way, and shall be filled with their own devices. The turning away of little ones shall kill them, and the prosperity of fools shall destroy them. But he that shall hear me, shall rest without terror, and shall enjoy abundance, without fear of evils."
Haggai 2 6-9
"This is what the Lord Almighty says: ‘In a little while I will once more shake the heavens and the earth, the sea and the dry land. I will shake all nations, and what is desired by all nations will come, and I will fill this house with glory,’ says the Lord Almighty. 'The silver is mine and the gold is mine,’ declares the Lord Almighty. 'The glory of this present house will be greater than the glory of the former house,’ says the Lord Almighty. ‘And in this place I will grant peace,’ declares the Lord Almighty.”
Seems like God knows what has value.
Miffed
he has his limits. he has to work through us, and we are not flawless. my personal favorite proof that god is not without limits, is that he could not stop men from committing a planetary no-no by --deleted--exactly the wrong area. We ALL will pay for that truly epic blunder. And now, men are playing with other astounding powers, and who is on the committee that is overseeing them? Other short sighted idiots? Some days, I am just angry at the elites for this. And, of course, we dont get to find out who to blame, and of course we arent allowed to know what they did ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOrb0G0tw08
"Our present economic, social and international arrangements are based, in large measure, upon organized lovelessness. We begin by lacking charity towards Nature, so that instead of trying to co-operate with Tao or the Logos on the inanimate and subhuman levels, we try to dominate and exploit, we waste the earth's mineral resources, ruin its soil, ravage its forests, pour filth into its rivers and poisonous fumes into its air.
From lovelessness in relation to Nature we advance to lovelessness in relation to art - a lovelessness so extreme that we have effectively killed all the fundamental or useful arts and set up various kinds of mass production by machines in their place. And of course this lovelessness in regard to art is at the same time a lovelessness in regard to the human beings who have to perform the fool-proof and grace-proof tasks imposed by our mechanical art-surrogates and by the interminable paper work connected with mass production and mass distribution.
With mass-production and mass-distribution go mass-financing, and the three have conspired to expropriate ever-increasing numbers of small owners of land and productive equipment, thus reducing the sum of freedom among the majority and increasing the power of a minority to exercise a coercive control over the lives of their fellows. This coercively controlling minority is composed of private capitalists or governmental bureaucrats or of both classes of bosses acting in collaboration - and, of course, the coercive and therefore essentially loveless nature of the control remains the same, whether the bosses call themselves "company directors" or "civil servants". The only difference between these two kinds of oligarchical rulers is that the first derive more of their power from wealth than from position within a conventionally respected hierarchy, while the second derive more power from position than from wealth.
Upon this fairly uniform groundwork of loveless relationships are imposed others, which vary widely from one society to another, according to local conditions and local habits of thought and feeling. [...] And the crowning superstructure of uncharity is the organized lovelessness of the relations between state and sovereign state - a lovelessness that expresses itself in the axiomatic assumption that it is right and natural for national organizations to behave like thieves and murderers, armed to the teeth and ready, at the first favourable opportunity, to steal and kill."
~ Aldous Huxley, The Perennial Philosophy, 1944
Lucky for G_d that 'it' has Lloyd(and his ilk) on the ground to take care of it's light work...
re: "'The silver is mine and the gold is mine,’ declares the Lord Almighty."
God's got nothing to do with it. This one's all on us. The end result of greed and hubris run amok.
The Titanic was considered unsinkable. Central Banks are considered to be unassailable. Both are incorrect, through only one has been proven so far.
" The Titanic was considered unsinkable."
God doesn't like to be mocked ;-)
Miffed;-)
Two powerful men that could have sunk the Fed formation got sunk themselves.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,’ declares the Lord Almighty".
Do you take this stuff seriously, really? And you are a scientist? Baffling.
Tell me. Did God know from the start how human nature would turn out? If no, then God is obviously not omnipotent and therefore not a god.
If yes and we are being punished for our greed and lust for money then isn't god a bit of an asshole for bringing all this to bear.
Anyway, it sounds from the above quote that god likes gold so that means he's probably a jew and christians are therefore fucked.
You take all of this much too seriously brimming with personal offense. It rankles you to the core. This is your weakness because those who quote these passages have the strength to put you where they want and you blindly follow the bait, mindlessly. You are stuck in a box with a door you cannot see, flailing around in frustration as others watch you spin. Unfortunately what you don't realize, this provides much entertainment for those you probably hate.
I've read many religious works. Just for alternative prospectives because a scientist should consider all things, even those that they find uncomfortable. Exploration may disrupt personal perceptions and biases which block Truth. This is good. Such receptivity to things will, in essence, make me a better scientist because Science is always changing with few absolutes and those who marry their theories are often eventually disappointed.
I practise no religion. I am not interested in dogma or defined rules to live my life. That is another trap. However, I have found profound wisdom in the bible and in Buddhism that I can appreciate and respect. I acknowledge this and if those wish to quote such things, why take offense?
If all religious works were to spontaneously burst in to flames, I would function just fine. Others may not do as well. And some can tout themselves as Religion Free when they have only created Science as a Religion.
Miffed
"If all religious works were to spontaneously burst in to flames, I would function just fine."
That, I can appreciate.
In fact I would love to know what life would be like if this indeed this could happen.
What would humans do?
Well, I think there would be many running around having the vapors and much knashing of teeth for starters. When the panic and dust settled, I believe many would realize their own potential and start on a path of self determination. Then, someone would perceive a great opportunity and find some book under a rock professing the Truth. He would bedazzle many people with the words, enthralling the less discerning . His followers will make him rich and powerful and he would claim God has blessed him due to his fortune.
Ok, this is just a guess but please understand I tend to be cynical ;-)
Miffed;-)
I don't know who said it first, but the two most important rules in most religions or faiths is loving God and loving neighbor.
If people would at least try and love their neighbors, most of this bullshit we are seeing today would not be happening.
I am a God fearing Anglican Christian, but all the gains in disposable income went to God's 1% classless kleptocrats like John Paulson, Henry Paulson, Alan Greenspan, George Soros, Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, Robert Wolf, Jon Corzine, Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, Warren Buffet,
Hank Greenberg, Ace Greenberg, John Thain, John Mack, et cetera, et cetera. After repeatedly demonstrating the empirical trend to rob from the poor and give everything to the rich, I would be inclined to state empirically and spiritually that God himself is full-of-shit without the least bit of equivocation on my part. Furthermore, God knows that I was raised by a Chartered Accountant from birth and God knows I read the Bible.
NOTE: John Paulson was a member of the "Jesus Club" when he was
in high school growing up in New York City. I guess the Christians coming out of New York City deserve all the disposable income that was appropriated from the middle class over the last 40 years across the whole of the United States of America.
You fear an invisible grey bearded skyman? Isn't that a bit silly?
Allegory for the unknown and unknowable is often used.
Keep it in mind when you are chatting with St. Pete.
Prolly won't help you, but it is a better topic than booze and broads with Him.
As they say, the party is still raging but dance close to the door.
I still find that few people give any regard for the difference between investing, speculating and asset protection. Each has its place and unfortunately too many people are disregarding asset protection. To make matters worse, investing is almost non- existent because interest rates have skewed the concept of investing quite badly.
Throw in a little more fuckery with gold and you may be on to something.
PEOPLE, WHAT IS HAPPENING IS THE WORLD WRESTLING WITH THE US LOSING ITS HEGEMONY. THAT IS ALL.
Unfortunately, the sociopaths that gutted our country for a few extra fraudulent fractional reserve banking financial assets will stop at nothing to his the root cause. So, they need conflict for cover. All people need do is disintermediate our TBTJ banks at every opportunity. Sell any financial asset with effective duration over 20 years (that's all float scam stocks), 30YR bonds etc. Raise physical cash and buy gold. Pull cash from TBTJ (move to local banks). These crooks are hyperlevered against fundamentals. They've robbed the populace for decades. Now, they have an eternity of restitution...
Expectations alone drive decision making on every decision made in
the entire World. Markets simply react to expectations. We the people expect the markets to tank into Hell & Purgatory, pronto. By my learned empirical calculation this fiasco cannot possibly be maintained past
the seven year itch date of March 10th 2015 around 11:00am old Bear Stearns New York City time. That leaves just under a month left in the seven year itch cycle if one starts the clock ticking March 10th 2008
when Bear Stearns was leveled in the first hour of a bear raid by unknown assailants. In brief, Bear Stearns was murdered by an orchestrated short n' distort bear raid which cascaded into WW3
and wholesale economic destruction throughout the entire World.
I need to know the exact date when the market crashes.
After 7 years of doom, gloom and boom, I'd like the right Quarter predicted.
Heck, I'd even settle for the right +/- 6 months.
Here's a start for ya:
http://www.hogueprophecy.com/2014/10/from-nostradamus-on-ebola-to-joe-bi...
Warriors often used the 'charts' to predict the favorability of outcomes:
FM 34-130, Intelligence Preparation of the BattlefieldQ1 March 10th 2015 around 11:00am New York City time.
Mr. T. Aquinas,
When you croak, will you please send your family and friends a "sign" that you are still in existence and God is real. I've asked my parents and grandparents and aunts and uncles to do this for my reassurance.
I have not seen one single solitary sign. They either went to another dimension or they are rotting in the ground slowly as the formaldehyde oxidizes.
Your mojo is bullshit which would be OK except you cost me money by your religion being tax exempt, and I'm forced to pay for about 15 extra TV channels carrying worthless drivel. I'll bet that you don't agree with the majority of them. This is just a variance of all of those blabbering shopping channels that I also detest.
You are going to die, man up, we all are.
But one's spirit survives ... however in your case....
Off subject but does anyone know where you can obtain the GoFo rate these days? I use to get it daily from Quandl but the rate went dead on 1/30/15. I reached out to Quandl and this was the response I received directly from a tech support party:
https://www.quandl.com/OFDP/GOLD_3-LBMA-Gold-Forward-Offered-Rates-GOFO
Unfortunately the LBMA has completely discontinued the rate, due to there no longer being enough participating members to calculate a mean. So the dataset is dead now.
WTF? Is the rate now completely irrelevant? Did I miss something with the LBMA and a change of policy? Has something changed in the global gold market that this rate is simply not relevant/reliable anymore? Tyler any thoughts? Anyone? Hello, McFly?
It is articles like this one that make me look the other way while losing 90% of my volatility gambling funds...It is only a matter of time until the assholes who are manipulating and dictating to the 'free' market are unable to control the monstrous beast they have created, and that is when all fucking hell is going to break out. I just need to make the popcorn...
mast of un - like what you type.
bear raid coming.
target(s) - this tyme nations ie debt
warmup-swissy
on deck-greecer da skids
spain italy portugal getting itchy...
The ability for the average guy to get information like this is why they need to pretend. In the past "they" could find a greater fool easily. Now they need to break the market with all the head fakes and keep the bs going until either they can't or we give up trying to make a buck on it. Keep stacking
Indeed and amen...Just think, what if the internet did not exist and all we had for 'information' was the 3 alphabet propaganda channels? Total ignorance would prevail...
I keep stacking, not going to stop. Make sure you stack plenty of Pb as well in case it gets really interesting...
"They were perfectly predictable, by economic logic alone, the same logic that says governments cannot manipulate market prices without creating distortions that will always, without exception, be counterproductive."
Yes, but ONLY a non-Pinko Fascist Commie is capable of perceiving this.
Pinko Fascist Commies are INCAPABLE (intellectually) of perceiving this fact.
So, by definition, a Pinko Fascist Commie mindset (see US gov't., Wall St., Central Bank, etc.) is not capable of seeing this.
To Farqued Up
Romans 1:18-22
"For the wrath of God is revealed from heaven against all ungodliness and injustice of those men that detain the truth of God in injustice: Because that which is known of God is manifest in them. For God hath manifested it unto them. For the invisible things of him, from the creation of the world, are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made; his eternal power also, and divinity: so that they are inexcusable. Because that, when they knew God, they have not glorified him as God, or given thanks; but became vain in their thoughts, and their foolish heart was darkened. For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools."
Job 36:25
"All men see him, every one beholdeth afar off."
To Master of the Universe
You say;
"I am a God fearing Anglican Christian" -your blasphemy suggests otherwise!
Nevertheless, if you want an explanation of why God gives some extremes of money;
Job 21:7-15
"Why then do the wicked live, are they advanced, and strengthened with riches? Their seed continueth before them, a multitude of kinsmen, and of children' s children in their sight. Their houses are secure and peaceable, and the rod of God is not upon them. Their cattle have conceived, and failed not: their cow has calved, and is not deprived of her fruit.
Their little ones go out like a flock, and their children dance and play. They take the timbrel, and the harp, and rejoice at the sound of the organ. They spend their days in wealth, and in a moment they go down to hell. Who have said to God: Depart from us, we desire not the knowledge of thy ways. Who is the Almighty, that we should serve him? and what doth it profit us if we pray to him?"
I appreciate the word of the Lord always, but the Bible does not account for the blatant disparity between the 1% and the legions of the 99%
having all of their gains in disposable income stolen from them over the last 40 years. Nowhere in the Bible is this level of disparity discussed.
My King James version of the Bible does not indicate that most of society would be forced into slavery and indentured servitude to debt.
Maybe you are reading the wrong book. Try the Koran or the Torah, a Muslim and Jew told me they are actually the righteous holy books.
Classic story to back up your dismay with god or the bible. There are two Aussies on death row in Indonesia at the moment, to be very shortly executed. They were involved with a group called the Bali-9 who were trafficking drugs through the country. The king pin is of course free and living a life of oppulence after a 5 million dollar lottery win.
Your god moves in mysterious ways alright, bloody hilarious really. All you people are worshipping nothing, an invisible grey beared sky man while stunning iniquities surround you on a daily basis. Yet you use relentless mental gymnastics to keep your fantasy alive, to ignore the obvious. Children clinging to their security blankets.
I imagine a world where there is no god, OK, no benevolent personal god talking in your head. In such a world despots lead safe and luxurious lives while the innocent are subjected to daily torment and suffering. Where drug mules are executed and king pins win lotto, WIN LOTTO and live in oppulence and grandeur.
Dip your toe into the grand ocean of reality, the water isn't too bad. Well actually, its fucking freezing but you learn to shiver through it.
Be intellectually honest and read the Bible front to back before pontificating to the masses what you believe it means. I actually read the Bible front to back because I was bored with everything else in academia. One cannot make significant claims against Biblical doctrine without first reading the Bible front-to-back. I accept Biblical doctrine
wholeheartedly, but I was formally indoctrinated into empiricism and the scientific method long before I even read the Bible. I made sure to get a degree in Experimental Psychology before I ventured through the Bible and came to the conclusion that God must indeed exist with Probability in the range of p=1.0 if one understands, and factors in, ontology. In my estimation, the only way to interpret the Bible is through ontological argument and epistemological argument. From my travels in academia, quantum mechanics, quantum physics, experimental psychology, metaphysics, et cetera, debate must be structured to be informed appropriately and logically. Frankly, trains of thought must overlap at junctures to form consensus of opinion enough to even have discussion. Bottom line is, read the Bible so that you have foundation to argue from.
HAHAHAHAHA, which bible ???????????????????????????????
The sanitised King James version?
The Old Testament?
All 64 books that make up the so called "book".
If the bible is the best god can do then that is PROOF enough to me the bible is the product of man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gELzYupzXs
Watch it. You have been conned and the facts are readily available. The story of jesus has been stolen from much more ancient parables and myths. The rituals embedded in Christianity have been stolen from paganism.
IT IS A LIE.
Farqued Up said:
"When you croak, will you please send your family and friends a "sign" that you are still in existence and God is real. I've asked my parents and grandparents and aunts and uncles to do this for my reassurance.I have not seen one single solitary sign."
Read verses 20-31
http://www.drbo.org/x/d?b=drb&bk=49&ch=16&l=24#x
Especially noting verse 31
OT: Ruth Bader Ginsburg was drunk at the SOTU address and fell asleep. LOL.
No Debt said;
"God's got nothing to do with it."
Daniel 3;26-33
"Blessed art thou, O Lord, the God of our fathers, and thy name is worthy of praise, and glorious for ever: For thou art just in all that thou hast done to us, and all thy works are true, and thy ways right, and all thy judgments true. For thou hast executed true judgments in all the things that thou hast brought upon us, and upon Jerusalem the holy city of our fathers: for according to truth and judgment, thou hast brought all these things upon us for our sins. For we have sinned, and committed iniquity, departing from thee: and we have trespassed in all things: And we have not hearkened to thy commandments, nor have we observed nor done as thou hadst commanded us, that it might go well with us.
Wherefore all that thou hast brought upon us, and every thing that thou hast done to us, thou hast done in true judgment: And thou hast delivered us into the hands of our enemies that are unjust, and most wicked, and prevaricators, and to a king unjust, and most wicked beyond all that are upon the earth. And now we cannot open our mouths: we are become a shame and reproach to thy servants, and to them that worship thee."
Bloody hell it's time to leave ZH, it's full of religious nutters and guys screeching about "the tribe". Pity. Once and for all: religion is simply a way to keep the masses under control and to whip up hatred and division between them. Works like a charm, always has.
It's been pretty good lately although we seem to have slipped back into some bad habits like quoting scripture.
Just needs an atheist to open a can of whoop-ass every now and then and erect a giant bill board stating:
THE GREAT INVISIBLE GREY BEARDED SKYMAN.
Keep saying this to yourselves you silly people. You believe in fantasies. You have been brain washed from the cradle. Hindus, the hundreds of millions of them don't know jack squat about your bible and your jesus and your god, mmmmmm, wonder why that is. Don't get me wrong, they're ten headed elephant man snake haired gods are just as stupid.
When you die you revert to the state prior to your birth. From memory, it wasn't too bad at all. I handled this not existing like a bloody champion. Eternity went like a flash, didn't get bored once. Didn't get sad, didn't get angry, didn't get frightened, didn't get lonely, didn't get cold, didn't get too hot, didn't get hungry, didn't get a god damned headache arguing about sky fairies with people who have a problem accepting reality.
The drug king pin won LOTTO (see earlier post) I shit you not. If that's not almost impirical proof of god not existing I don't know what is.
Yup, door, the place is resembling an iHop on Sunday morning.
Thomas, I mean no disrespect. My point is that the greed and hubris we are flaunting right now is ON US. It's not God sending some Old Testament plague down upon us. IT'S US DOING IT TO OURSELVES. In contravention of how God would want us to behave.
I could quote Bible verses back to you about this but I'm not looking to get in a pissing match (which you would probably win). Christians who hide inside the Bible rather than PRACTICE their beliefs in their daily lives, out in the secular world, are of little use, in my experience.
I may appear a little rough around the edges in public forums like ZH, but don't assume we are enemies.
Talking about hubris... sorry about all the Aldous Huxley quotes but I've recently read his Perennial Philosophy and it's definitely been floating around my head lately... so here are a few select morsels of his early discussion on hubris:
"[In the preceding quote from a Zen parable] Chaos is Nature in the state of wu-wei - non-assertion or equilibrium. Shu and Hu are the living images of those busy persons who thought they would improve on Nature by turning dry prairies into wheat fields, and produced deserts; who proudly proclaimed the Conquest of the Air, and then discovered that they had defeated civilization; who chopped down vast forests to provide the newsprint demanded by that universal literacy which was to make the world safe for intelligence and democracy, and got wholesale erosion, pulp magazines and the organs of Fascist, Communist, capitalist and nationalist propaganda. In brief, Shu and Hu are devotees of the apocalyptic religion of Inevitable Progress, and their creed is that the Kingdom of Heaven is outside you, and in the future. Chuang Tzu, on the other hand, like all good Taoists, has no desire to bully Nature into subserving ill-considered temporal ends, at variance with the final end of men as formulated in the Perennial Philosophy. His wish is to work with Nature, so as to produce material and social conditions in which individuals may realize Tao on every level from the physiological up to the spiritual.
Compared with that of the Taoists and Far Easter Buddhists, the Christian attitude towards Nature has been curiously insensitive and often downright domineering and violent. Taking their cue from an unfortunate remark in Genesis, Catholic moralists have regarded animals as mere things which men do right to exploit for their own ends. Like landscape painting, the humanitarian movement in Europe was an almost completely secular affair. In the Far East both were essentially religious.
The Greeks believed that hubris was always followed by nemesis, that if you went too far you would get a knock on the head to remind you that the gods will not tolerate insolence on the part of mortal men. In the sphere of human relations, the modern mind understands the doctrine of hubris and regards it as mainly true. We wish pride to have a fall, and we see that very often it does fall.
To have too much power over one's fellows, to be too rich, too violent, too ambitious - all this invites punishment, and in the long run, we notice, punishment of one sort or another duly comes. But the Greeks did not stop there. Because they regarded Nature as in some way divine, they felt that it had to be respected and they were convinced that a hubristic lack of respect for Nature would be also punished by avenging nemesis. [...] Today we recognize and condemn the first kind of imperialism; but most of us ignore the existence and even the very possibility of the second. And yet the author of Erewhon was certainly not a fool, and now that we are paying the appaling price for our much touted "conquest of Nature" his book seems more than ever topical. [...]
Looking backwards across the carnage and the devastation, we can see that Vigny [in his poem Sur Le Taureau de Fer] was perfectly right. None of those gay travellers, of whom Victor Hugo was the most vociferously eloquent, had the faintest notion where that first, funny little Puffing Billy was taking them. Or rather they had a very clear notion, but it happened to be entirely false. For they were convinced that Puffing Billy was hauling them at full speed towards universal peace and the brotherhood of man; while the newspapers which they were so proud of being able to read, as the train rumbled along towards its Utopian destination not more than fifty years or so away, were the guarantee that liberty and reason would soon be everywhere triumphant.
Puffing Billy has now turned into a four-motored bomber loaded with white phosphorus and high explosives, and the free press is everywhere the servant of its advertisers, of a pressure group, or of the government. And yet, for some inexplicable reason, the travellers (now far from gay) still hold fast to the religion of Inevitable Progress - which is, in the last analysis, the hope and faith (in the teeth of all human experience) that one can get something for nothing. How much saner and more realistic is the Greek view that every victory has to be paid for, and that, for some victories, the price exacted is so high that it outweighs any advantage that may be obtained!
Modern man no longer regards Nature as being in any sense divine and feels perfectly free to behave towards her as an overweening conqueror and tyrant. The spoils of recent technological imperialism have been enormous; but meanwhile nemesis has seen to it that we get our kicks as well as halfpence. For example, has the ability to travel in twelve hours from New York to Los Angeles given more pleasure to the human race than the dropping of bombs and fire has given pain?
There is no known method of computing the amount of felicity or goodness in the world at large. What is obvious, however, is that the advantages accruing from recent technological advances - or, in Greek phraseology, from recent acts of hubris directed against Nature - are generally accompanied by corresponding disadvantages, that gains in one direction entail losses in other directions, and that we never get something except for something.
Whether the net result of these elaborate credit and debit operations is a genuine Progress in virtue, happiness, charity and intelligence is something we can never definitely determine. It is because the reality of Progress can never be determined that the nineteenth and twentieth centuries have had to treat it as an article of religious faith.
To the exponents of the Perennial Philosophy, the question whether Progress is inevitable or even real is not a matter of primary importance. For them, the important thing is that individual men and women should come to the unitive knowledge of the divine Ground, and what interests them in regard to the social environment is not its progressiveness or non-progressiveness (whatever those terms may mean), but the degree to which it helps or hinders individuals in their advance towards man's final end."
~ Aldous Huxley, The Perennial Philosophy, 1944
Thanks for posting Think for yourself. Radical Marijuana suggested I read this last week as a proxy "Unitary Mechanisms for Dummies".
Notice how you have been conditioned to tread on egg shells around Christians.
Just come out and say it, religion is a gigantic lie foisted upon the uneducated and gullible in order to control them.
Your mind has been shackled, conditioned, programmed to not criticize their institution. It's a clever ploy to keep the institution alive, keep the men in power and controlling the flock.
These markets are speaking to us yet again.
Yes they are speaking to us. They are saying short us and get yer ass handed to you.
Here's my biggest question/concern. Doesn't the fed/cenrral banks around the world have a helluva lot more control now of the markets than they did back in 08-09? It certainly appears so. How the FUCK did we just get that monster fucking ramp job to new highs with no qe?
I was curious when I saw the headline to this article, because (pardon my ignorance) I didn't really know who Mark Spiztnagel was. Looked him up on Wikipedia and found out he be one rich dude. He's rich - not because he made a lot of money, but he lives a full, rich life. He's living a rich life because he lives the way HE wants to, not the way everybody else thinks he should live his life. In the end, thats what is important...because you only have one life to live. You don't get do-overs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Spitznagel
"......living a rich life because he lives the way HE wants to, not the way everybody else thinks he should live his life. In the end, thats what is important...because you only have one life to live...."
Wise Words for ALL....
And what I have lived by for decades...
"I need to know the exact date when the market crashes."
LOL, ask
Zoltarhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uigpbM983dg
Spitznagel's definition of the Swan is wrong. Everybody knows the crash is coming. And everybody has got their own scenarios of how it will go down. The black swan is the one that nobody sees coming. Like an Archcduke getting shot.
He who controls the present controls the past. This is what is being done with the market interference, and chart manipulation. It will be used to justify future activity.
When u get a blackbelt, you wash it. The it is white again. The simple math is always in effect over the long term.
Re: "The bear markets we saw following all of these periods were not dreaded “black swan” events at all. They were perfectly predictable, by economic logic alone."
Bear markets are not at all "perfectly predictable." If they were, Mr. Spitznagel could tell us WHEN the bear market would happen, but of course he cannot do that. In the world of investing, knowing WHAT will happen is not that useful without knowing WHEN. All is he saying, really, is that the law of regression to the mean is still in force.
I can tell Mr. Spitznagel with perfect assurance that he will die. Does that make his death "perfectly predictable?" I don't think so.
This is largely a deformed market with ever collapsing price discoveries. Tobin'Q or whatever are anchored on assumptions. the fundamental assumption of all these econ cons is a "free market that is functioning.
Black Swan is not a term to describe what does not work viz your strategies.
Out there is just a jungle with Predators' traps. Some of them are so visible yet Preys walk in for their fixes. This is what is keeping the game in markets going.
Another unpalatable truth is that many indebted preys with no resource to move even a needle are just screaming with pains on what markets should be for them. Sorry the cures do not arrive at your desires.
Master of Universe said;
"I appreciate the word of the Lord always, but the Bible does not account for the blatant disparity between the 1% and the legions of the 99%, having all of their gains in disposable income stolen from them over the last 40 years. Nowhere in the Bible is this level of disparity discussed."
In our day, most Christians, though having been given the gift of faith, are worshippers of money too and commit sin in order to acquire money;
Wisdom 11;17
"That they might know that by what things a man sinneth, by the same also he is tormented."
Jesus did not promise us wealth in this life, rather wealth is an inhibitor to salvation
Matthew 6:24
"No man can serve two masters. For either he will hate the one, and love the other: or he will sustain the one, and despise the other. You cannot serve God and mammon."
Our goal is eternal life in God;
Luke 12;31
"But seek ye first the kingdom of God and his justice, and all these things shall be added unto you."
1 Corinthians 2;9
"But, as it is written: That eye hath not seen, nor ear heard, neither hath it entered into the heart of man, what things God hath prepared for them that love him."
Money is simply needful to provide the necessities of life.
Proverbs 30;8
"Remove far from me vanity, and lying words. Give me neither beggary, nor riches: give me only the necessaries of life:"
You wear your conditioned and brainwashed mind like a badge of honour.
No Debt said
"Thomas, I mean no disrespect. My point is that the greed and hubris we are flaunting right now is ON US. It's not God sending some Old Testament plague down upon us. IT'S US DOING IT TO OURSELVES. In contravention of how God would want us to behave."
It is true that mankind's failure to submit to the authority of God and keep His commandments is a cause of our travails, but God is certainly the punisher.
Ecclesiasticus 7:8-10
"Nor bind sin to sin: for even in one thou shalt not be unpunished. Be not fainthearted in thy mind: Neglect not to pray, and to give alms."
Ecclesiasticus 15;19-21
"For the wisdom of God is great, and he is strong in power, seeing all men without ceasing. The eyes of the Lord are towards them that fear him, and he knoweth all the work of man. He hath commanded no man to do wickedly, and he hath given no man license to sin:"
He is also a generous rewarder to those who keep His commandments of love of God and neighbour; see;
http://www.drbo.org/chapter/05028.htm
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL said
"Bloody hell it's time to leave ZH, it's full of religious nutters and guys screeching about "the tribe". Pity. Once and for all: religion is simply a way to keep the masses under control and to whip up hatred and division between them. Works like a charm, always has."
God is the Highest and First cause of all things. Therefore, knowledge of Him and His action is the wisest understanding regarding everything, hence.
"According to Aristotle (Metaphysics. 1:2), it belongs to wisdom to consider the highest cause. By means of that cause we are able to form a most certain judgment about other causes, and according thereto all things should be set in order". - St Thomas Aquinas; Summa Theologica
As for your rejection of religion;
2 Thessalonians 1:7-10
"And to you who are troubled, rest with us when the Lord Jesus shall be revealed from heaven, with the angels of his power: In a flame of fire, giving vengeance to them who know not God, and who obey not the gospel of our Lord Jesus Christ. Who shall suffer eternal punishment in destruction, from the face of the Lord, and from the glory of his power: When he shall come to be glorified in his saints, and to be made wonderful in all them who have believed; because our testimony was believed upon you in that day"
"God is the Highest and First cause of all things"
So god is the cause of mans lust for money?
So god is the cause of suffering?
So god is the cause of evil?
So god is the cause of child molestation?
So god is the cause of torture?
Best to stop Thomas Aquinas because at the rate you are digging you will end up in godless China.
You think that's air that your breathing?
Bringontheasteroid said;
"God is the Highest and First cause of all things"
So god is the cause of mans lust for money?
So god is the cause of suffering?
So god is the cause of evil?
So god is the cause of child molestation?
So god is the cause of torture?
Man has free-will; he is the one who creates suffering for himself, departing from right reason, in which is contained God's law (as well as conscience). Your rant is common to athiests who know well of God's existence, but refuse to acknowledge His authority;
Psalms 13:1
"The fool hath said in his heart: There is no God, They are corrupt, and are become abominable in their ways:"
You are warned;
Job 21:13-15
"They spend their days in wealth, and in a moment they go down to hell. Who have said to God: Depart from us, we desire not the knowledge of thy ways. Who is the Almighty, that we should serve him? and what doth it profit us if we pray to him?"
If man has free-will then god cannot know mans intention, therefore, god is not omnipotent. Free will usurps the very notion of god as an all powerful being. YOU CANNOT WIN.
Chuck says;
"You think that's air that your breathing?"
The Last Judgement - The Lament of the Damned
Book of Wisdom; Chapter 4:20 & Chapter 5:1-8
"They shall come with fear at the thought of their sins, and their iniquities shall stand against them to convict them.Then shall the just stand with great constancy against those that have afflicted them, and taken away their labours. These seeing it, shall be troubled with terrible fear, and shall be amazed at the suddenness of their unexpected salvation. Saying within themselves, repenting, and groaning for anguish of spirit: These are they, whom we had some time in derision, and for a parable of reproach. We fools esteemed their life madness, and their end without honour. Behold how they are numbered among the children of God, and their lot is among the saints. Therefore we have erred from the way of truth, and the light of justice hath not shined unto us, and the sun of understanding hath not risen upon us. We wearied ourselves in the way of iniquity and destruction, and have walked through hard ways, but the way of the Lord we have not known. What hath pride profited us?"
Sometimes market reactions do owe to black swans even if most don't.
Jesse Livermore described his strange experience of having suddenly been possessed of shorting Santa Fe while vacationing in Florida. 'Couldn't explain to his friend why he was selling the well respected stock in such quantity and with such urgency. His friend was convinced Livermore would ruin himself with such a huge bet against a prosperous company for no apparent reason.
Then came news of the great earthquake (arguably a black swan) in San Francisco, which was the primary hub for the railroad and its operations. Even after the dreadful news came by telegraph, the stock market didn't immediately react to the implications of the event and the certainty of its devestating impact on Santa Fe Railroad -- but then it did react, big time. Santa Fe cratered and Livermore cashed in on his wager.
He claimed he had no idea, even years later, how to explain why he started selling the stock to begin with and then continued with urgency.
But it's reasonable to say the San Francisco earthquake was a genuine black swan in the marketplace because it was an exogenous event both unpredictable and calamitous.
But Jesse did explain:
Over Many Years in Markets you refine your Instincts and Intuition....
Some Positions thus come from Intuition, rather than a definable basis of facts.....
He says a Man must follow BOTH Instincts AND Intuition.......
Most cannot rely on Intuition because they all need Someone or Something to tell them what to do....
For 99% in Markets, their Ambitions exceed their Talents....
Only when a Man truly has the "Courage of his Convictions" can he rely on "Intuition" as a basis for Position.....
Had Jesse Known, Studied and Assimilated the works of WD Gann, he would have understood that there are indeed "Answers" and they lay in Time......
"Intuition" is not necessary.......
Having said that, RSO is the Most Important Book ever written on Markets, and like Sun Tzu and Machiavelli, will be Timeless through the Ages....