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UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles, Biggest Miss On Record
After six month so soaring confidence, UMich consumer confidence tumbled from 11 year highs by the most since October 2013 in January (despite the low gas price stimulus), printing at 93.6, missing expectations of 98.1 by the most on record. It appears survey-based 'hope' is catching down to hard-date-based reality of spending habits as the sheer idiocy of the low-gas-price meme is destroyed once again. The drop was led by a plunge in Current Conditions from 109.3 to 103.1 and towards teh future, fewer now expect higher incomes and those who have favorable business expectations plunged from 70 to 58 with a surge in people expecting "bad times" over the next 12 months.
UMich tumbles with biggest miss on record...
As surveys catch down to spending reality...
Respondents who believe this is a "bad time to buy" a house, car, or household item all surged.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Can sentiment go negative?
That is "crazy", "insane". Oops, these words are BANNED at UMich.
But look at the line, it was up near the tech-bubble highs.
Given the macro is sliding for years, and turning negative already, I suppose sentiment can go downright depressive, but given peak-bullshit about the unreal-economy, it may take awhile for reality to show up.
It can if you use normal calculation methods. The US model is unique in that it is basically always positive, this is by design in the calculation... because negative numbers sound bad.
Didnt you get the memo? Negative is the new positive. Negative interest rates, negative news, Negative population growth, more debt, etc.
Muricans have become bi-polar. On any give week or day for that matter life can be grand or life can be dismal. Not sure if this survey has any relevance anymore.
Agree. Month after month, there seems to be no correlation between this "scientific" poll and the real economy or even the fake markets. This consumer poll is suspended in mid-air.
While that's true in part, most of these "official" surveys are out of touch with reality. Just take a look at the SRC website, it's enough to make you gag.
https://www.src.isr.umich.edu/
This is as clear a signal to BTFATH as you can get. Buy more AAPL!
93.6 is still high, why are these people in Michigan so damn happy?
EBT card value increases. Fed gubmint spending up over 8% last year. Woo, hoo!!!! More "free" stuff!!!
Creepy,
Actually more like 6% nominal. However, deficit fiscal YTD is higher than FY 2014.
http://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0115.pdf
Whichever number you go with, 6% or 8%, it is still a huge increase in government (doubling in about 10 years at that rate). Especially when wages are going down.
How can folks not be happy we got grilled cheese trucks!
80% of all michigan folks get their monthly EBT cards 2 days before the survey. The other 20% work for the government.
Pure Michigan - Nowhere to go but up.
stocks bounced 1000 dow points since that survey and oil has popped up. it'll read over 100 next cycle
Negative data has been assimilated into the collective.
Have a nice day.
now may be a good time to buy a horse
Well now that that bad news is out of the way let's get back to buying stocks.
Prozac nation keeps it positive.
Who on earth are they questioning?
last night I had a conversation with a friend I have known for 20+ years. He thinks things are great and he is just plowing money into the stock market. he knows we are headed for a big time crash, but he tells me he will make it out just in time. he's clever. I could not comvince him to get out and sit tight.
The crash will happen at a time least expected, and people I know will be obliterated.
I don't disagree with what you've said as I've been out for about one year now. I do wonder, though, if the Fed will attempt to keep the market propped up once again by "printing" and pumping trillions of dollars into it. I also assume that a crash is coming. What I don't know is whether the Fed printing will put it right back in a few years or not. This seems to be their goal.
Your friend is a typical deluded American (?). Most people (and American's are #1 in this IMO) have not the capacity to think critically. All they can do is 'parrot' their conditioning. Sadly, I suspect your friend will lose his ass and deservedly so...
Well, ya got to slam it down once in a while so you can slam it back up again later, and no one cares about this CNBC carrying the piss bucket calling it 'an anomaly in otherwise best ever times'....they got this shit managed.
You all know it was the weather right?
Time to buy stocks! Take the S&P to 2200! It's all Federal Reserve driven.
Abenomics goes out and buys stocks. Stock buy-backs and then algos follow the Fed.
Yellenomics = Abenomics = Bernankenomics.
The confidence number is centrally planned. Huge one month drop. Take the medicine at the top of the stock market. followed by steady gains the next six months. Drop it again one month and repeat the move higher. Meanwhile the economy simply implodes.
Nothing good has come out of Michigan since the Ramones
Meaningless number.
I have another barometer for this economy, it's called the "Dumpster Fire Index"
Dip bought. Onward and upward, bitchez!
i'm weighted about 60% stocks, 40% bonds. i fully believe this market will collapse in biblical proportions. however, the FED and other CB's have declared war on fixed income and conservative saving principles. i refuse to be anally raped by these monsters. i have bought the koolaid. BTFD.
nowhere to run to baby. got nowhere to hide.
might as well try to btfd and make some "money". the madcalves need clothes and food.
Stocks keep going higher. What can you say. Bullish.
Have to jump on this nice wave and ride it for a while. Their determined to break record highs consistently.
looks like those surveyed didn't get the big fat year end raise that they thought this booming economy would bring them.
Fail.
What gets me is there is a large number of people who DO think this is the best time ever to buy a house, car, or whatever else? Who are these idiots?
They understand interest rates and nothing more, even that is tenuous.
They don't even understand that. All they comprehend is 'monthly payment'...
That has to be worth 1000 points on the DOW, a hundred points onthe S&P. in the MARKET OF THE ABSURD. Oil shuold rise $10/barrel....and a loss of 50000 jobs next week and a bump of $1 Million per banker bonus!
Can someone explain why stores keep closing during these "boomtimes"? I know a person who just set a record low price buying beachfront condo in florida....yet everything is great?
But cheap gas...cheap gas I tell you!!!!!! What? What do you mean your HC premiums went up by $200 a month?! But cheap gas!!!!
This means one of the CEO's they call for the survey got caught by his wife while fucking his secretary .
Now his confidence level has dropped for the economy. They don't call consumers the index is BULLSHIT.
this will go on for, until can't ?
it's like the, did that tree fall down, nobody heard anything.
worst print in history, nobody hears, the next 10 prints, +.05 mom, headlines for 10 months, yes you will here that.
govt. fueled propaganda has been utilized to commit the worst atrocities on their own citizens, for ever.