The US' Suicidal Strategy On Ukraine

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Chris Martenson via Peak Prosperity,

Ukraine is back in the news cycle and for good reason. The previous cease-fire has broken, fighting is intensifying, and the western-supported and installed leadership in Kiev is losing the campaign.  At this point, the West's choice is to either double down and bet even more on a badly failing set of policies, or admit it has lost this round and seek to deescalate the situation.

Meanwhile, Europe has finally woken up to the risks and seems to be ready to carve out a different path than the US. A lot hinges on the apparent 'truce' deal between Russia and Europe's leaders this week.

As the President Hollande of France put it on Feb 7th, "If we don't find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it's called war." Of course - since the deal's signing, shelling has continued with more deaths.

He's not simply referring to an escalation of the factions fighting within Ukraine. He's warning about the real deal:  a wider conflict that could easily spread into Europe, and possibly, the embroil powers across the world.

A Recipe For Unrest

As I've written previously, the West, especially the US, was instrumental in toppling the democratically-elected President of Ukraine back in February 2014. US officials were caught on tape plotting the coup, and then immediately supported the hastily-installed and extremist officials that now occupy the Kiev leadership positions.

In short, the crisis in Ukraine was not the result of Russia's actions, but the West's. Had the prior President, Yanukovych, not been overthrown, it's highly unlikely that Ukraine would be embroiled in a nasty civil war. Relations between Russia and the West would be in far better repair.

Russia, quite predictably and understandably, became alarmed at the rise of fascism and Nazi-sympathetic powers on its border. Remember the repeated statements by Kiev officials recommending extermination of the Russian speakers who make up the majority living in Eastern Ukraine. Were a parallel situation happening in Canada, for example, I would fully expect the US to be similarly and seriously interested and involved in the outcome.

The only people seemingly surprised by this predictable Russian reaction towards protecting its people and border interests are the neocons at the US State Department who instigated the conflict in the first place. In my experience, these are dangerous people principally because they seem to lack perspective and humility.

Ukraine's Civil War

Going Poorly For The Regime

Looking at the state of things, it's not going well militarily for the Kiev regime. Huge losses and persistent reports of low morale among Ukrainian troops tell the tale: Kiev is losing badly. 

Let's begin with the reports of the fighting in Ukraine which have recently intensified:

Ukraine bloodshed intensifies ahead of peace summit

Feb 11, 2015

 

Kiev (AFP) - Intense fighting in Ukraine, including a devastating rocket strike on Kiev's military headquarters in the east, killed at least 37 people on Tuesday, the eve of a four-way peace summit.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said rockets for the first time hit the military's command centre in Kramatorsk, the government's administrative capital in the region, well behind the frontlines and far from rebel positions.

 

The latest fighting also saw rebels seek to encircle railway hub Debaltseve and Ukrainian forces launch a counter-offensive around the strategic port of Mariupol.

(Source)

The rebels have encircled and ruined a number of Kiev forces over the past several months in what are called 'cauldrons', where the encircled forces are slowly ground down and destroyed. This appears to have finally happened in Debatlseve, which would be just another in a long string of heavy losses for Kiev.

The losses in prior cauldrons have been staggeringly high, with many analysts concluding that Kiev has been underreporting losses by as much as 90%.

I cannot vouch for all of these sources. But the following is a typical example of reporting coming from the front lines of the Ukraine conflict, which directly contradicts the official Kiev war reports:

Ukraine hides devastating losses as Russia-backed fighters surge forward

Jan 25, 2015

 

ARTYOMOVSK, Ukraine – An ashen-faced man in a loose-fitting military uniform shuffles past a blood-soaked stretcher propped against the wall. Slowly stirring a cup of tea, he watches Ukrainian military officials announce the day’s casualties – one killed and 20 wounded.

 

“Don’t believe what they tell you,” he says, checking the door is closed before continuing.

 

“There are many, many more. At least 280 were injured in just one day last week and 30 or 40 killed. There were many more killed this week, Debaltseve and Konstantinovka are the worst cities now. I take 18 wounded to Kharkiv myself every day.”

 

The man, who didn’t want to be named, is a medic in Ukraine’s overstretched, under-resourced army. Clearly traumatized, he speaks quietly and hesitantly, barely audible over the low rumble of artillery fire from the outskirts of town.

 

His words confirm Ukraine’s worst-kept secret - that the Ukrainian army is drastically understating its casualties. But only now is the scale of that understatement starting to become clear.

 

On Jan. 22, the director of Kostiantynivka hospital told Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors that in the last two weeks that the number of soldiers admitted has “increased dramatically, with figures comparable to those in August and September 2014.”

 

Between Aug. 10 and Sept. 3, when Russian troops first entered Ukraine in support of a beleaguered rebel force on the brink of defeat, the Kyiv Post estimates at least 200 servicemen were killed.

 

Many of the recent casualties are coming from areas around the besieged town of Debaltseve, a strategic rail junction between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, where thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are struggling to prevent being surrounded and cut off from Ukrainian lines.

 

The town’s defenders – and its civilian population - have faced an incessant artillery bombardment from three sides since Russian-backed rebels launched a massive offensive all along the front line last week.

(Source)

I have read enough first-hand reports to suspect that this article is pretty close to the truth. The contradicting numbers in the statements from the Kiev regime about losses are very hard to believe.

Part of what plagues Kiev's forces is the age-old problem of fielding an unmotivated force. Not everybody is excited to be fighting against people from within their own country. Moreover, training is poor, equipment and ammunition are in poor shape and supply, and pay is often late in coming if it comes at all. This is a very usual litany of problems that have plagued struggling armies through the centuries.

On the other side of the battle lines, you have people fighting for their homes, their families and their ethnic community, which the Kiev regime has promised to exterminate if and when it's given the chance.

Dubious Reporting

It's interesting to contrast foreign reporting with US reporting on the conflict:

As fighting deepens in eastern Ukraine, casualties rise and truce is all but dead

Jan 20, 2015

 

MOSCOW — Intensifying battles, mounting death tolls and new accusations of Russian interference in eastern Ukraine have marked some of the worst fighting between government troops and pro-Russian separatists since last summer, rendering a months-old cease-fire agreement effectively defunct.

 

The two sides have been trading heavy fire at the Donetsk airport, a prize that, though more symbolic than strategic, has been at the center of punishing recent attacks that have reduced much of the facility to rubble. Each side has claimed control of the airport at various points, and militia and army fighters there continued to launch strikes against each other over the past several days.

 

The U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey R. Pyatt, bolstered Ukraine’s accusations Tuesday, saying the United States was alarmed by what he called a Russian-provoked military escalation, coupled with the arrival of large quantities of weaponry from Russian territory, according to the Russian Interfax news service.

 

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told reporters Tuesday that pro-Russian separatists were “taking advantage” of the military’s compliance to seize “very substantial territory — more than 500 square kilometers.”

(Source)

Let's decode this piece of writing from the Washington Post and provide some essential context that is, regrettably, missing far too often from US media sources when reporting on the Ukraine conflict.

To begin, there's the assertion once again that Russia has been supplying "large quantities" of weapons to the separatists.  While this may or may not be true, not one shred of satellite or other imagery or any other evidence has been provided by the US to support that charge.

In this day and age it is literally not possible to move large amounts of heavy weaponry across open land without satellites and/or drones taking pictures of them. 

Furthermore, in this case the charges are being levied by one Geoffrey Pyatt, the infamous US ambassador to Ukraine who was caught on tape discussing the imminent coup of then-President Yanukovych. He also famously tweeted out a crudely doctored photo purporting to show that the missile attack on MH-17 came from the separatists -- evidence that was quickly defrauded by the intelligence community.

Why the Washington Post would report anything from Pyatt as worthy of our serious consideration given his blighted track record so far is a complete mystery to me. It would be like recommending your friend to a doctor you knew had committed gross malpractice multiple times.

Next, the separatists are not 'taking advantage' of a one-sided lull in the fighting to claim territory. They have been winning battle after battle. What they have taken advantage of is the poor training and lackluster military strategy undertaken by Kiev's forces.

It should also be noted that the above article presents the status of the conflict an even match.  There's no indication that one side is winning or losing.

This is par for the course with US media reports these days and it's really a disturbing indication that the shoddy journalistic ethics on display during the horrendously mis-reported weapons of mass destructions lies that led to the most recent US attack on Iraq are still with us today. 

It's quite sad, really. Because when it comes to an issue as important as a potential conflict with Russia, the US owes it to itself to get the facts right. The stakes are worthy of that.

As a final point about the shortcomings of the Washington Post piece above concerns the heavily contested Donetsk airport. Five days prior to the above article's publication, the airport had been clearly reported by other outlets to have already been lost by Kiev forces:

Russia-backed separatists seize Donetsk airport in Ukraine

Jan 15, 2015

 

Russian-backed separatists announced that they have captured the shattered remains of the Donetsk airport terminal in eastern Ukraine and plan to claw back more territory, further dashing hopes for a lasting peace agreement.

 

The airport, on the fringes of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, has been at the centre of bitter battles since May. Control over it was split between the separatists and Ukrainian forces, who had held onto the main civilian terminal. Reduced to little more than a shell-strewn wreck, the building is of limited strategic importance but has great symbolic value.

 

An AP reporter saw a rebel flag hoisted over that building Thursday, although fighting still appeared to be ongoing. Ukraine insisted government troops were holding their positions at the airport.

(Source)

Instead of the airport being up for grabs as the WaPo article implies, it has had the rebel flag flying over it as of five days ago. It's clearly in the hands of one side, the separtists'. That's a huge difference, and is just one more example of heavily slanted writing that passes for news in the US these days. 

But leaving the shoddy reporting aside, the main summary here is that the intense fighting in Ukraine has resulting in mounting losses for Kiev. 

All of which provides the context for this week's hurriedly-brokered 'peace summit' that will involve France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

Splitting Away

Europe has begun the process of splitting away from the US on the matter of Russia and Ukraine. 

What's interesting is that an emergency meeting is being convened amongst several of the top leaders in the world, but looks who's suspiciously absent from the talks:

Merkel and Hollande’s surprise Moscow visit raises hopes of Ukraine deal

Feb 5, 2015

 

The leaders of Germany and France abruptly announced a summit with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow on Friday in response to overtures from the Kremlin, raising hopes of a breakthrough in the year-old Ukraine conflict.

 

The sudden and unusual decision by the chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the president, François Hollande, to travel to Moscow, with the French leader talking of decisions of war and peace, increased the stakes in the crisis while also raising suspicions that the Kremlin was seeking to split Europe and the US. Putin was said to have made “initiatives” to the European leaders in recent days.

 

Merkel and Hollande met the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, in Kiev on Thursday evening but left without making any comment.

 

EU diplomats and officials said that growing US talk of arming Ukraine was pushing the Russians and Europeans towards a diplomatic deal, with both sides keen to avoid weapons deliveries but also to keep the US on the sidelines of the diplomacy.

(Source)

Note the progression of what transpired, which we can piece together from this and other articles. US Secretary of State John Kerry was in Kiev meeting with the president and prime minister of Ukraine, but did not attend similar meetings with Hollande and Merkel held on the same day. 

Then Hollande and Merkel jet straight off to Moscow for high level talks.

Missing in action from the Germany-France-Ukraine-Russia talks is John Kerry, President Obama, or any other ranking US official. This speaks volumes about where we are in this narrative. 

When the US started down this path of confrontation with Russia, which remains a complete strategic mystery to nearly all thoughtful observers, there were two large possible outcomes: isolating Russia and fracturing its growing ties with Europe, or accidentally fracturing the strong ties between the US and Europe.

Oops. Looks like we've opened Door #2.

I didn't know how serious it was until I read this:

Kerry Insists 'There Is No Split' With Europe on Russia, Ukraine

Feb 8, 2015

 

MUNICH — Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday denied any divisions between the U.S. and Europe over how to handle Russia, as Germany announced another high-level summit aimed at stemming the crisis in Ukraine.

 

Kerry told a security conference in Munich that he wanted to "assure everybody there is no division, there is no split" between Washington and its European allies amid the crisis in Ukraine.

 

"We are united, we are working closely together," he told the conference following meetings with his French and German counterparts. "We all agree that this challenge will not end through military force. We are united in our diplomacy."

(Source)

It's not terribly hard to read through that diplomatic double-speak here. The US is "united in our diplomacy" with Europe, even though the US was apparently not invited to be part of the biggest gathering of heads of state on what could be the flash point for a major regional war.

Nice try, John. 

There's a saying that news is never official until it's denied. Well, I guess that makes it official: there's an emerging split between the US and Europe over the matter of Russia and Ukraine. And it's about time.

The key issue, apparently, is that the US, true to form, is ready to send in military arms to the Ukraine regime, and Europe thinks that's a bad idea for multiple reasons. I could not agree more.

After all, when has the US arming one side of a regional conflict led to regional peace and a good outcome for the citizens of any particular area? If you can't think of any recent examples, neither can I.  The track record of late is nothing short of being a complete disaster for the people of the various countries involved.  Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, and Nicaragua come to mind.

But the people of Ukraine have to be kicking themselves right about now. Not only did they fall for the rosy promises of change and hope peddled by the West, they also believed the West would be a better partner for them than Russia.  Worse, instead of finding a way to have both as partners, they adopted the West's idea that it had to be one or the other. And now their country is being rent apart.

Why We Should Care, Deeply

So what? the average American might ask. Ukraine is half a world away. Who cares what happens there?

Putting aside the humanitarian reasons for not prolonging or intensifying a regional conflict, we risk not just only America's century-long ties with western Europe, but possibly the next world war. We are pushing our agenda and armaments right up against the Russian border -- for reasons that are still completely opaque at this time -- and Russia, understandably, will simply not stand for that.

In Part 2: America Vs Russia: What's At Risk, we explore in depth what's truly at risk here, why a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine is highly unlikely to happen anytime soon, and the biggest risks concerned citizens in the West should prepare for right now. 

Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access)

 

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nope-1004's picture

I still believe the ceasefire is to suck Russia into defending itself, then turning around and blaming them for doing so.

wee-weed up's picture

Everything Obola touches turns to shit.

TeamDepends's picture

It's not suicide if they are trying to kill the (American) body.

WillyGroper's picture

Add two more to the JPM headcount.

Gettin weird, really weird.

will ling's picture

don't think really the front carriages typically explode in fireballs. no, this was a "hit". somewhat elaborate yes, but nonetheless a "hit"

the phantom's picture

Breaking up the Russia-China axis seems to be priority #1 for the ZWO, the Ukraine is just another stepping stone to that.  Russia produces, China consumes.  With Russian natural resources/military technology going East... it's only a matter of time before the sun sets on the Empire.  The US bombed Serbia into giving up Kosovo, and built the biggest US base in Europe (I believe)... Camp Bondsteel.  Russia is not going to roll over for the West and you will never see a US military base in Russia... ever.  Russian people are seeing the aggression of the West, and feel the existential threat of NATO/US... which is why Putin is so popular.  

I think the Ukrainian population was fooled.  Mcstain comes over talking how "the US is behind you" during Maidan, and now their sons are coming home in body bags and the currency devalued by about 30% on top of it with the economy on the verge of collapse.  Donbass was 19% of Ukrainian GDP.  Say bye bye.

Latina Lover's picture

If the pro USA Kiev forces weren't getting their asses kicked, there would be no Minsk meeting.  Martenson nailed this detail dead on.

BuddyEffed's picture

I keep wondering if the ulterior motive wasn't always the gas pipelines.  

For some, controlling the land the pipeline is on could be seen as having some kind of "value".

Anybody who can lay claim to controlling the land can then lay claim to that value.

That could be especially important to some parties when "value" in other areas seems to be now fleeting as evidinced by NIRP/ZIRP.

People and investors are grabbing for value anywhere and in anyway they can, and it's getting ugly.

I lifted the following snip from the content of another ZH article published today concerning the grab for perceived relative value :

QE and negative interest rate policies incentivize investors to chase (ever) lower-yielding and higher-risk assets. Asset price inflation is the purposeful intent. However, the risk/reward profile changes as prices rise.

Nexus789's picture

More to prevent a 'EurAsian' trading block. Russia will not fold. The dimwitted degenerates in Washington are playing with fire.

basho's picture

the Poles have also been fooled and then there is mutti merkel and msr. hollandaise and the list goes on.

it is amazing how the europeans still think the sun rises and sets in the ussa.

but slowly the worm is turning.

caconhma's picture

Did somebody read the Minsk 2 agreement? I doubt.

The Minsk 2 agreement clearly states that Russia will stop any interference in Ukrainian affairs. Translation: Putin's Russia admitted its defeat in Ukraine and is betraying its Russian speaking population!

PS

So much for discussion by ZH bloggers about things they know nothing about.

Burgundy's picture

Try reading it yourself, you'll be surprised.

Serfs Up's picture

I read it, all 13 bullet points, from the source document.

Poroshenko lost huge.  No border control, local elections, resumed payment flows, full prisoner/amnesty swap, new truce borders drawn at new front lines...he got nothing.

The above poster has now been flagged by myself as either a cubicle dwelling 'information warrior' (level 1, needs more training) or a GCHQ comment spam bot.

the phantom's picture

Give the level 1 troll a break... it's probably his first day working for .gov.  From Section 9 of the M2 agreement:

9. Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by the government throughout the conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in some areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and constitutional reform) at the end of 2015, subject to paragraph 11 — in consultation and agreement with the representatives of individual areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of the Three-Party Contact Group.

The Ukies in Kiev won't even sit down with the Novorossian leaders, so how is a comprehensive political settlement supposed to happen exactly?  It won't, so the border control will remain in the hands of the separatists.  Minsk 2 might have been good politically, but changed nothing.

Latina Lover's picture

Quoting the phantom:

Minsk 2 might have been good politically, but changed nothing.

Exactly +100

caconhma's picture

"Poroshenko lost huge.  No border control, local elections"

Yes, new local election under the Kiev-Poroshenko control! Get it?

the phantom's picture

Wrong. Is English not your first language?  Read section 9 again, the Ukies get control of the border after a comprehensive political settlement at the end of 2015, subject to paragraph 11 — in consultation and agreement with the representatives of individual areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the framework of the Three-Party Contact Group.

THe Kiev junta is not even talking to the Donetsk and Lugansk representatives, so how the fuck do you think there is going to be a comprehensive political settlement when they refuse to even meet?!

Reality is calling... pick up the phone man.


Fun Facts's picture

The USA mule is dragged around against it's own interests by AIPAC, the PNAC revolutionaries and the global ZWO gangbangkster cabal.

AIPAC and the banksters have been borrowing our army since the New Pearl Harbor.

grgy's picture

Kerry and Obama are probably the worst combination of Pres and Sec/State in the history of the country. Completely laughable if it weren't so scary.

California Nightmares's picture

Must look at the Zionist component.

Who really controls the president? the MSM? the big banks?

Jews.

Some of them have dual citizenship (US / Israeli, that is).

 

Rootin' for Putin's picture

The reason is simple:

The ceasefire doesnt take place until Sunday night and if you think i am carrying all these heavy shells back again you are mistaken.

williambanzai7's picture

ISIS, raciss, Nazi's, batshit...how's that for a list of reasons covering the globe...

disabledvet's picture

"A nuclear shooting gallery."

 

All part of the plan.

Carry on.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

It seems to me that Europe has their hooks in Ukraine now. Maybe the US is just a scapegoat by design?

basho's picture

ussa a scapegoat? by who's design?

LMAO, they usually do it according to their own design.

FF to Iraq where ISIS is overtaking a compound with 300+ ussa dupes.

Flagit's picture

<-----Flagit is cool.

<-----Flagit is super cool.

Bemused Observer's picture

You didn't log in just to say that did you?

C'mon, we know you have something on your mind...spit it out.

Flagit's picture

It was just some sarcastic bs that I wnt back and edited to make it look like everyone thinks I'm cool.

socalbeach's picture

Nothing in this article that most of us don't already know, but good cut and paste summary for the uninformed.

396's picture

My sympathies to all the victims of war caught up fighting for and against the fascist regimes of the USA, Britain, Canada, Australia, Germany, France and Israel.

All of humanity is in this struggle.

 

 

 

Omen IV's picture

as to Kiev body count   - deliberately faked -

on live leaks i saw that there are body parts coming off the kiev soldiers - kidneys / bladders / livers - sent to Israel in exchange for cash - the size of the business is huge - anyone who can be saved  - instead is taken for body parts - so they cant send the remains home to their mothers

NuYawkFrankie's picture

ZIO-Thug USSA: The Pariah State that Keeps On "Giving"

Lea's picture

"To begin, there's the assertion once again that Russia has been supplying "large quantities" of weapons to the separatists.  While this may or may not be true, not one shred of satellite or other imagery or any other evidence has been provided by the US to support that charge."

There are NO Russian weapons in Ukraine. Stalin and his successors, who were paranoid about a Western invasion, hid masses of weapons in Ukraine when it was part of the USSR. There are Soviet weapon stocks everywhere stacked in old mines and warehouses.

If the separatists had up-to-date Russian weapons, the war would already be won.

cornfritter's picture

"We are pushing our agenda and armaments right up against the Russian border -- for reasons that are still completely opaque at this time -- and Russia, understandably, will simply not stand for that."

 

hey uh... neat article, but exactly who the f*ck is "WE"????

gettin' kinda sick of these journalists misuse of pronouns, implying that all Americans are guilty, the elections in this country have been a sham for f*cking decades... this administration, like those for the past 100 yrs. runs "open loop".... You people writing your fancy articles need to accuse the correct perps, by f*cking name!!  That means you Chris Martenson.

-cornfritter

czarangelus's picture

You glow the same as Them if They push things too far.

MilwaukeeMark's picture

US ... lift foot ... take aim ... fire!

Khurschev was right when he said they would bury us. But what he meant (saying so in his memoirs), that we would destroy ourselves with greed and corruption and they would have to come over here and bury us (not that they were much better at the time).

I wouldn't give one single US politican of today 2 minutes in the ring with the likes of a Khruschev.

Obama, less than 10 seconds.

 

kowalli's picture

Khurschev was an idiot, we don't like him in Russia.

samsara's picture

Those of us over here, who were around when he was (1962ish)  don't hold him in high regard either.

 

kowalli's picture

im not joking,  HE was an idiot

He had a schizophrenic idea to grow corn in cold climates and he killed almost all the apple gardening and not only them

El Vaquero's picture

You ought to be able to grow Painted Mountain corn in many parts of Russia.  It's fast maturing, does well in cooler weather and does well even in poor soils.  

sam i am's picture

Khurschev was a Ukranian nationalist minister in the Stalin government.  In 1954 Khurschev gifted large parts of Russia with the Russian people living there to "Ukraine." It happened right after he with a group of communist party aparatchiks killed Stalin in 1953.

Now, we have Russian populated Krimea and Russian populated Donbass fighting to be back with Mother Russia.

GoinFawr's picture

Killed Stalin with what, smokes?

22winmag's picture

Why bother reading about the fight in Ukraine when you can just watch a few VICE dispatches and see firsthand what's going on in the trenches?

COSMOS's picture

LOL, what VICE that has been bought out by I think Viacom a while back.  WIth that Zio Stooge Simon as the combat reporter.  Threw up after watching him report in and around Crimea.  If I had been there I would of personally shot him in the head.