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Texas: Separating Fact From Fed Fiction
Reflecting on how awesome everything was last year in Texas - ensuring your context is mal-adjusted to start with - Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher proclaimed to no lesser mouthpiece of the status quo meme than Steve Liesman...
...that he and some esteemed colleagues in the business community in Texas believe that the collapse in oil prices is a net positive for Texas:
"we will lose about 150,000 [oil-based] jobs, but we will pick them up elsewhere since we are a consumer society," and low oil prices is good for everyone.
Well apart from the absurdity of that statement to start with, the facts are...
Texas initial jobless claims are surging...
Retail spending shows absolutely no sign of low-gas-price tax-cut 'stimulus'...
and Texas' business indicators are tumbling...
* * *
"News" - it's how they do propaganda these days!!
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If a $50 drop in the price of oil is good for Texas it only follows that a $100 drop would be twice as good...
As part of a widespread industry trend, Houston-based FMC Technologies Inc. will cut about 2,000 jobs, about 10 percent of its jobs companywide, according to Fuel Fix.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/drilling-down/2015/02/houston-ma...
My cousin's husband has worked in the oil patch for years. He is 58 years old. His job went away last week.
Chem engineer I know there just got cut after 12 years with the same company.
Other people have lost there jobs because they were 58. Nothing lasts forever.
True I'm 59 but instead of firing me they
give you a job where you can't meet expectations
and after 20 years and being a top sales guy it was
easier to take severance now rather than when they
take that away due to "shareholder value". Older white male,
need I say more?
You don't have to be in the oil patch to be forcefully "retired" in your 50's. I guess corporate America would rather have 25 year-olds Facebooking all day at their desks.
One of my uncles, 61 or 62 now did that at your age. Took his severance and ran...just before mass layoffs where we're all sure he would've been among the targeted.
He now works part time at Home Deopt (by choice) and LOVES it. Good thing he was/is a cheap bastard, saved upwards of a million, has a house paid off, owns a half dozen rental properties and doesn't need the money.
And he gets way more human interaction than ever before after decades of being isolated in a cubicle which has made him much less bitter than he used to be. And when you're retired and don't need the money anyway, the management doesn't treat you like crap like they do younger and more desperate folks.
Good for him, but how many baby boomers are in the same financial position? I'm a CPA and constantly see people in their 50-60's taking on a new 30 year mortgage with 3% down and barely any savings. I see people in their 40's filing for bankruptcy. I go through their financial records and see over $30K/yr in expenses for eating out.
It's a matter of time, Gen X will eventually rip the world a new ass, dude. Justice? there is no fucking justice, it's not even expected. Nothing is sacred anymore, they will stroke you all the way to the furnace with a smile.
Well, that's just ++moarbullish.
More bullshit you mean?
Fisher went on to say "...also, things should pick up after this Russian invasion of Ukraine is halted and they retreat back within their own borders taking their empire dreams with them."
Would it really have been any more ridiculous if he'd said that, also?
Just shameless now.
I was a machinist here in Houston at Dresser Atlas in 1982 when my first oil glut put me out of work. I just diversified into carpentry, then that played out and eventually entered the hell of working at a roofing company. I finally entered an apprenticeship in building operations and got a job managing a 25 story office tower that was 60% empty, This led to my getting cerified in other areas that if needed, I could stand rotate to one of those other trades.
The point is if you're handy to get into a line or work that people cannot live without. There is no dishonor in being an electrician or plumber or AC/Heat guy. Without those basic things, there is no civilization.
Or, you could sit back, relax, and work on your disability claim. . .
Sorry, it's hard even in Texas to live on $969 a month form the FED gov OR $612 from the state.
Not if you do side jobs for cash
hey, my sister gets disability that is 1600 a month........... and subsidized housing that makes her apt 300 a month and medicaid paid for......... geez I would take that deal
"it only follows that a $100 drop would be twice as good..."
No, it will be "doubleplusgood."
The banksters need to repay us.
That’s the logic I use when I talk to people about minimum wage. People say that we need to increase minimum wage to $10/hr. I ask them why not make it $100/hr! Then you can almost hear their brains churn. Many will actually think it through and realize the problems with minimum. Some will say that the price of goods and services will just increase, because McDonald’s can’t make a profit on $5 meals if they pay their cook $100/hr. Others say something like, well a lot of employers can’t afford to pay people $100/hr so we will lose those jobs.
I usually follow up with another question, like why do we need to keep raising minimum wage anyway? It’s because our dollars are losing value due to the Federal Reserve’s money printing! I tell people that two dimes still buys a gallon of gas. You just need to use real money, silver.
Sometimes, if I really like the person I’m talking to, I give them a candle with a silver coin (https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers?ref=hdr_shop_menu). They all appreciate the gift, of course! Several have started researching and even collecting silver on their own!
That same logic is good for explaining the Monty Hall problem. If you're unfamiliar with it, it goes as follows:
There are three doors, behind one of which is a prize. You pick one door, and then Monty says "I am going to open one door, it will not be the door that you picked and it will not be the door with the prize." So Monty opens the door that is not yours and doesn't have the prize behind it, and then gives you the option to change to the other door that remains closed. Should you change? The answer is that you double your chances of winning the prize by changing.
That fucks with people, until you say, there are 100 doors, and Monty is then going to open all but two doors, the one that you picked and the one with the prize. The way to look at is that, when you picked, there is a 99/100 chance that you picked wrong, and Monty opening just one of the other doors does not change that 99/100 chance that you picked wrong, nor does him opening up a 2nd, a 3rd, etc...
OT, but I figured you might find it interesting.
That is cool. I remember hearing this once before. It doesnt make sense at first. I had to slow down and think about how that worked.
Then there is Parrondo's Paradox where: A combination of losing strategies becomes a winning strategy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parrondo%27s_paradox
The banksters need to repay us.
Two of my own:
1) Most, two-thirds to three-quarters, of the energy that is used to sustain a plane in flight comes from gravity itself.
2) Squeeze a bottle of say, ketchup, and, as expected, see some of the product come out the top. But then ponder that only the bottle's shape has changed not its dimensions.
even when i slow down I still don't get it.............. you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting the prize at the beginning. Then Monty removes a losing door.............. now your chances of having chosen the winning door are 1 in 2. But i don't see the logic of changing doors to improve your chances of winning since it seems to me that the door you originally chose has a 50/50 chance of being the prize as does the door you have NOT chose has also a 50/50 chance of being the prize.
Please help me see this logic. I am intrigued.
It helped me to use the example of more doors. There are 100 doors and one has the prize. Then Monty opens 98 doors. That leaves the door you chose and a door he chose not to open. The door he chose to open has the prize if your original does not. Yes, you could have chose the correct door right off the bat, but you only had a 1% chance of doing so. Monty is basicaly asking if you want that original 1% chance of picking the correct door. Hope that helps...
I don't think you double your chances of winning by going from a 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 2 chance....doubling a 1 in 3 (33%) chance (multiply X 2) makes it a 2 in 3 or 66% chance...if you change doors you have a 1 in 2 or 50% chance of winning
Your chance of winning increases by 16.6666% going from a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance.
I'm no stats expert, but I could see how it increases to 2/3 chance. It helps to think of Monty's pick here, not yours. When you make the original pick you have 1/3 chance. That leaves Monty with the other 2/3. Then Monty opens a door that has no prize. That doesn't change your odds, it just shifts it to the other door that he didn't open. So, you are essentially getting two doors by switching. That's how I see it anyway.
I don't see it that way. This is a process of elimination. The odds change every time a door is opened. It is a new problem every time. Eventually, you are down to 1 in 2 odds because the other scenarios no longer count.
Thank you so much for your explanation. I just ADORE statistics
:-)
WOW WHAT A WONDERFUL IDEA YOU HAVE...... SELLING GREAT CANDLES WITH SILVER ON ETSY. I WILL REMEMBER YOU FOR GIFTS. LOVELY!
Yes - just like negative interest rates.
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.globe-report.com
Being the supporting actor in a gay porn film is no way to make a living sweeatheart......
I'll trade you 10 waiters for those oilmen.. #jobsfixed!
Dick Fisher excels at putting lipstick on pigs... like his speech last week to the Economic Club of NY how (not to actually) reform the FED.
Even the father of modern NeoLiberalism himself knew that the Federal Reserve system was corrupt and should be ended...
“Any system which gives so much power and so much discretion to a few men, [so] that mistakes excusable or not can have such far reaching effects, is a bad system. It is a bad system to believers in freedom just because it gives a few men such power without any effective check by the body politic. This is the key political argument against an independent central bank. . .To paraphrase Clemenceau: money is much too serious a matter to be left to the Central Bankers.”
– Milton Friedman
http://www.themoneymasters.com/the-money-masters/milton-friedman-end-the...
Friedman was in favor of abolishing the Federal Reserve System and replacing it with a mathematical model (tied to economic growth to eliminate monetary and price inflation) that would keep the quantity of money increasing at a steady rate, issued directly by the government (Treasury) and ending fractional reserve banking powers for the banks, which is why he supported our Monetary Reform Act. He said he actually would “like to abolish the Fed“.
He opposed cartels and monopolistic business practices such as the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 created in the US banking industry, delegating to them the exclusive power to create most of the US money supply.
recovery for everyone. We will lose 150k jobs min in Texas, but you know, they can find new job in MAC xD
Unless you habla espanol, forget those good jobs at Crackdonalds.
Or in construction or a host of other industries that Hispanics have taken over down here.
At least they can fall back on that generous high yield savings account the bankers are giving them.....0.01%.
Or cash in their pension plan [which is probably down 50% since most employees hold their own companies' stock in their plans].
By the looks of it, we're heading into a double decade depression now and my guess is it's going to get lots worse for the private sector Middle Class.
"They lie about everything. Why would they lie about this?"
The banksters need to repay us.
As somebody so eloquently said it yesterday on ZH:
"We are beyond the point where the western government needs the sheeple to believe its lies."
What lies? I believe that these 150r men can find a new job. /sacr
the good news is that the jiffy lube in arlington is hiring
Golden Corral too.
Fisher and the rest of the Fed members live in a different world.
so true, the world of endless money and no borders, they can do everything
In an alternate universe.
Shame it not the next one.
PLUS 100
Fisher and his friends/family live in a universe where they are absolutely oblivious to inflation. They are so far removed from the price of gas/food/utilities and clothes ......... they don't even shop for themselves and they have someone else pay the bills....... they just look over the profit and loss statements at the end of the month. These are the people who have power and who really control our country. The average person can't imagine their lifestyle. Gated communities with personal secretaries and shoppers, grounds keepers, maids and social calendars, I have absolutely no problem with the rich as long as they are not making decisions that adversely affect me and my family. The Fed will never be ended....... because these kinds of people will always hold the power of money. The common man who enables the lifestyle these people live could absolutely put an end to it tomorrow........ they could all just get up and decide not to continue "serving" people like this..... but then some other dumb sheep would be in line to fill their place the next day. The problem is the education of the common man. The internet is giving them a run and causing the rich some concerns but I think it is baseless...... the common man can't grasp that the national debt is something that was a pure fiction created out of thin air back in 1913 that he owes through the harvesting of his labor......... no different than the slavemasters used to do back before the civil war. I like to say that the civil war ended slavery for the black man........... now we are ALL slaves.. All except for the bankers and international business men. Oh and a few farmers. Otherwise open your eyes and take a good look at your plantation. Keep fighting for the best bunk available but you will always be a slave as long as the Fed lives. This is not Constitutional. You do not live in a constitional republic. Please pass that on.
Excellent!
I like to say that the civil war ended slavery for the black man........... now we are ALL slaves.. All except for the bankers and international business men.
Would like to hear Al Sharpton say that on MSNBC.
The real civil war was fought and lost on a single day in 1913.
Yeah, there's a new Dollar Tree where I live that will be hiring. However, only bilingual need apply. The added benefit is an additional 20% discount on all store items for you.
You might expect the average moron on the bus or metro to spout something that idiotic, like a mainstream blind faither. Maybe they all think that way. Maybe he is a fucking robot.
Just start vending tamales out your trunk. Viva norte Mehico!
Austinites will feel the pain with foreclosures and drop in home prices. Just a matter of time
Saw a ton of homes for sale in Austin last month.
Well now maybe Lake Travis can fill back up....
Went to three auctions in Houston Friday. Motor cycles, RV's, and small boats. It ain't pretty.
Austin is more of a tech and university city than oil. The pain from the oil patch will be in Houston and South and West Texas. I hope not too many of those hicks and Mexicans went out and bought $70K trucks with their windfall the past few years.
Those oil-based jobS that Fisher says we will lose - they pay around $100/hour. The ones that he says we will pick up elsewhere - require one to know how to ask "would you like fries with that?"and pay near minimum wage. Hardly a profitable trade!!
Yeah, but the guy putting the mayo out into the esun to make special sauce for your big mac will have a Chem. E.
Maybe it takes a Chem. E. to get the orders right. Burger King got my same order wrong twice a couple of weeks ago. When I went inside the second time, there was a young lady waiting for them to straighten out her order too. She had not received my sandwich. There must have been an unhappy person with a veggie burger somewhere.
No wonder I usually eat at home. (Just had an urge for a veggie burger).
I like how oil industry people think there jobs are locked in for life unlike everybody else.
I find no mirth in them losing their jobs. Those were high dollar paying jobs from the roughnecks to the P+C Engineers. Those dollars are now gone from their communities. Not being spent at restraunts, the supermercado, department stores, on housing repairs on and on. Hopefully they put a few pennies away for the rainy day, for that rainy day has come.
And not buying motorcycle from Illinois, RV's from Indiana, and bass boats from Arkansas.
'ceptin the bass boats were made in Missouri, tell you whut.
You seem to be glad that they and those in the support industries are getting creamed.
Did one of them fuck your wife?
No doubt.... Probably cracked it open like a double barrel shot gun...
The people who need the major reality check are the ones on the school boards and the people they convince that voting for irrational debt for new school buildings is "for the children" so everything can be awesome. School districts in Texas have plunged head first into enormous debt funded by general obligation muni bonds. Some of the districts need more buildings. This district wants to demolish almost every building except the high school and put up new buildings (so they can be neglected and abused like the current ones). People seem to have no concept that the property tax rates can blow out if the market values in the taxable base goes down by much.
The architects take a wallet biopsy of the taxable base then decide on their pricing. The school board members refuse to see what is going on even though the state comptroller has an internet site that publishes the new construction cost per square foot.
People won't know what hit them.
Don't forget the high school football stadiums too.
Housing has always been disposeable in Texas. The neighborhood gets costly or goes down hill, you move, especially once the kids are gone.
Like the Frisco school board chipping in a quarter of the cost of the Cowboys' practice facility? Jerry won't let them out of that when things go south.
Oh, like Katy ISD 1 billion dollar budget?
Oh, like Katy ISD 1 billion dollar budget?
Indeed.
I heard Katy hired the same people to build their new $58 million football stadium as built the Allen ISD football stadium. You know...the 2 year-old $60 million Eagle stadium that started developing cracks and was deemed unsafe until repaired. They didn't get to use it this football season.
Most of the school construction bonds in Texas are guaranteed by the Permanent School Fund. IIRC, the PSF has $30 billion and guarantees $60 billion. Don't worry, the state will not let the school districts default and will not let the PSF lose money. School districts are not allowed to seek relief in bankruptcy court. People need to perk up and pay attention to school debt before moving into a school district. These bonds usually pass on less than a 10% voter turnout.
It's a dangerous racket.
"consumer society" needs private sector income from growth. Welfare and money printing are not it!
While oil produced high income jobs, one job lost in that industry will need 3-4 at Dunkin Donuts, or as retail clerk at the mall!
"we will lose about 150,000 jobs"
atvs go first, trucks go second, there will be about 80,000 fully decked late model one tons returning to bank / auction... next up, homes ... many of these young guns likely moved their families into nice middle class houses as they were making decent money... bye
i'm not laughing, i've lived it ... life is a series of growth opportunities
many will wait, giving what unemployment they get to the banks, hoping to keep these major assets, only to relinquesh them in the end.. tears and sorrow
peace, and may God keep you clothed and fed, brothers
I live in houston and while its a booming, economic wonder for the past 5 years, Im starting to see cracks in the system locally. The city was once pretty nice, not too many illegals 15 years ago, the women were decent looking and the money was aways steady. Now its an overcrowded shithole with millions of trashy people from all cultures. I am working slowly, but surley my way outta here.
you need to have money for oneway airplane ticket...
Disagree. Houston is a great cosmopolitian city. If you can't make it here, you're lazy. The demographics have changed, but it still impresses me as a working person's city. It's a magnet for South American folks wanting to make good. In fact, a lot of cuban folks have moved this way. No, not FSA, but folks opening businesses of all shapes and sizes. The bartender in my local BBQ haunt, used to be a lawyer in Argentina. Those are the kind of hardworking savy immigrants you want. He now owns the BBQ place. He's conservative, votes republican, and community minded. Illegal? No, married a Texas Gal.
The fact that you say the women are "decent looking" clues me in that you are just a spineless emotional cripple, to immature to commit to a relationship, be responisble, and be a real man. Looser.
You probaly are some looser in sales or petro chemicals. Let me guess, Katy? Chris, is that you?
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http://www.zerohedge.com/node/12342
I think you summed up America in general.
News - it's how they did propaganda in Nazi Germany and USSR.
And how it's now done in fascist USSA.
To my state representative...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3ZJKN_5M44
To my state representative...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3ZJKN_5M44
Not only that, but now those consumers will have the time to shop! Lots and lots of time...all those jobs were just holding them back, eating up all their shopping time...
Stand back folks...Texas is about to take off!
STFU Fisher!!! Fucking asshole!!!
Focus on "voting members".
Lot of uses for "free energy."
Great time to be a chemical engineer.
With Amazon's stock up a hundred bucks a share on no news in particular should be good news for Bezos' "code blue" or whatever he calls his space project in Texas.
If I spent $2 on gas and $2 on matches in June of 2014 and then spent $1 in gas and $3 in bottles, yesterday, how much has my spending increased? If your answer is 25%, you deserve a PHd in Economics and it's no wonder why you're tearing your hair out wondering when "spending" will accelerate due to the drop in the price of gasoline.
While I like Fisher, in this instance he is beyond delusional (or more likely just spouting Fed propaganda). This is real easy to figure out for Texas ... do you produce more oil than you consume in Texas? You do? And that oil production is a significant percentage of your overall economy? It is? And the price has halved? It has? You're in trouble my friend ... and that is even before trying to figure out if some of your financial institutions may be insolvent from the price decline and volatility.
Ok Rocky I guess you are concerned about those financial institutions that threw money at the oil drillers. Don't be. They don't deserve your sympathy.
Problem is we'll likely replace 150,000 $50k/yr. jobs with 150,000 25k/yr. jobs.
Anybody who thinks that's a net positive is delusional.
It's not news it's "news product". News product is to news as meat product is to meat.
Texas is still trying to figure out how to spend the billions in surplus that the state has stashed away. Low oil prices will help out a lot with that problem. Good for everyone.
No surprise Pittsburgh is in that picture (#27 on economic indicators). It also has benefited from the Marcellus Shale and the roughly 20k or so additional jobs PA has had since '08 in natural gas and oil have almost all exclusively been in the Western part of the state. Really been the only sector that has had notable job growth in the state since then in a high-paying sector.
TX is still alot more diversified than '82-'83 and removing the military sequester is going to help in a big way because Texas is on the military spending tit more than any other state. Ft. Hood is now the largest US army base by a decent margin and San Antonio is heavily dependent upon military spending.
Oil workers apply at Walmart and McDonalds.Free training and minimum wages.It's good for Texas.
Which Fischer do you believe? Which one is the real one?
The one who paints a rosie picture for Texas? Or the one who slammed the NY Fed's policies as destructive?
If Fischer truely believed the results were positive, then why would he be slamming the NY Fed? Or vice versa?
the only two status quo shill I revile more thqn Liesman are kernan and batapaglia. Joe is in the place that karma dictates. he will be there a very long time. he is waiting for kernan to show up. iwish him a speedy trip.