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GATA And Martin Armstrong Have Gone At It For Nearly 17 Years!

lemetropole's picture




 



A couple of days ago a Café member sent me some of the latest commentary by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, formally of Princeton Economics International. As you will read, he continues his rant against "the gold promoters," a rant that seemed more than vaguely familiar.

What an understatement!

The Café opened on September 3, 1998 with the price of gold at $285 and the price of silver at $4.93. The internet as a form of communication was just coming into its own back then and many of the commentators you read about today were nowhere to be found in those days. Martin Armstrong was an exception.

By September 23 of that year he already was made mention of in this column. In 1999 he was brought to Café member’s attention 4 times in headline form and around 30 times overall. All this can be checked out by doing a Café search on Le Menu.

Here you go with one of them…

Gold: Manipulation or Exaggeration?
By Martin A. Armstrong
Copyright 1999 / Princeton Economics International
June 10, 1999

A two-man army calling itself GATA has begun to besiege the media attempting to gain a lot of press on the platform that gold is being "manipulated" by a cartel of investment banks. They constantly point to what they call the huge "carry trade" in gold were there is far more gold sold than exists…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=304&SearchParam=Martin Armstrong

 

-END-

I thought it might be interesting to get into our differences and bring them your way. However, I soon realized a book could be written on the prevailing material and the fascinating intrigue of it all. So for now, will keep it as simple and short as possible, starting with Martin A’s latest that includes some of his follower’s comments. Normally I edit swearing 99% of the time. However, this is not our commentary and I have left them in to capture the true vitriolic feelings of some of his followers, as a result of what their man has to say…


 

Posted on February 12, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/12/the-comments-on-gold/ - respond

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GCNYNF-W-2-12-2015.jpg

The comments have been pouring in on gold. To say they are interesting is to put it mildly. It is funny how both the gold promoters and the mainstream press actually respond in the same manner. Both desperately try to ignore the fact that our models just may have been an important advancement in the study of time and how things really function. It does not appear that either are ever really interested in helping anyone or advance one step in the game. They seem to both operate in the same manner to force their way of thing upon everyone else regardless if it is correct 0 they are both only drive by their self-interest.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GCFOR-W-2-12-2015.jpg

 

The computer picked the gold pop for January targeting the week and the day of the high. You would think people might come to the conclusion that just maybe this model could have stumbled upon something since this is not an opinion. However, it just seems that it is far easier to assume the world is flat than to try to set sail around a sphere they cannot grasp even exists.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/1-Time-All-Connected.jpg

The implication of just the correct forecasts like this on gold go far beyond merely gold. What this demonstrates is that everything is truly connected. That means, if our computer models are correct, then a politician cannot actually run for office proclaiming vote for them and they will change everything. We are all just pieces of an interconnected world. That is the real implications of this forecast in gold. The sooner we realize that what Socrates has accomplished is the revelation that absolutely everything is connected. There is nothing that ever takes place in absolute isolation.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Resisting-Change.jpg

OMG – the most feared of all aspects C H A N G E!

I could have run to a beach and hide from the world. I was not looking to get back into hedge fund management or analysis. I held the 2011 Conference simply because they wanted to make this movie. So I agreed to do a conference. A former employee told me the industry changed. I would be lucky if 25 people would show up. Well we filled the Westin Hotel with just over 300 people and had to turn away over 300. It has been my loyal clients over the many years who have convinced me to come back. These forecasts are NOT my personal OPINION. They are not even my invention. They are the product of my DISCOVERY of time. For that reason only, my goal is to take this system public so that it survives me and from there perhaps knowledge will advance in a new direction. I promised our clients will get the first shot at the IPO. I will keep that promise when it is time.

COMMENT #1:

Hi Martin,
If the gold devotees are sure that you manipulate the gold market (if not also the whole markets and the world and its surroundings), why didn’t they shorted it when you said it is time for a decline to possibly 950$ ? They would have already made a fortune. Unless they shorted it or bought put options and made tons of money but don’t want to acknowledge it.

I bet anything, a pack of chewing gum for example, that they are going to be your first subscribers to the trading signals in november. Of course they will only consider the buy signals and discard the sell signals. But they are going to make money from them and stay hypocrits.

In 1971 (end of the gold standard), the world population was less than 3.5 billions; it is now 7.1 billions and the trend is upward. How is it possible to have enough gold for every country? Let’s suppose the USA adopt a gold standard ALONE (because they are the only ones on Earth who unserstand gold, helped by the gold promoters), then the whole world would be happy to send/sell its gold to Americans and the USA will end up quickly with massive inflation, this same inflation that the gold standard is supposed to eliminate.

Now the gold adorers don’t trust the government in managing the paper money. But it is more arduous to manage money when it is gold, because it is a natural ressources, It is like agriculture: we are never sure in advance of the quantity we are going to obtain. And who is going to manage this? The government! So the gold adorers are the cousins of the government devotees (the keynesians/interventionists).

COMMENT #2: Hey Marty,
I just wanted to say thanks for being the only one who has the balls to take on these scumbag gold promoters. They had me sucked in for a while until I could see something was wrong. So I sold my silver when it was $27 a few years ago.

It was not until I discovered you that I truly understood that selling my silver was the right thing to do.

These pricks make me sick and I chuckle to myself every time you give them shit in your blog.

Keep up the great work mate.
S

COMMENT #3:

The folks who are mad at you or the "manipulators" are completely schitzo. First, they should be upset with themselves, which I am. But then they should be pissed at the gold promoters and I won’t mention any names. I follow these gold sites just to gauge the interest and I will say that the interest

in gold is waning quickly.

Thanks,
TH

COMMENT #4

This gold essay was written when he was in prison.

I think it’s his best gold essay in an unbiased way.

Look at the graph where 1980 is the peak and 2016 is the bottom of gold.

He says ,"The next target happens to be 2016 that lines up with the purchasing power of the dollar. When we look at GOLD, hopefully you are starting to see, this is a very critical market to understand."

COMMENT #5:

I used to be a gold bug, thank you for your blog.

Remember that immature girl in high school, how every little thing that happened to her meant that someone either hated her or was obsessed with her; who thought every teacher who ever gave her a bad grade was being totally unfair and everything good that happened to her was because of how amazing she was? Yeah, we’re that immature high school girl.

COMMENT #6

A great call by Marty. Not only did he pick the week of the high but also the day of the week of the high:

 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/15/gold-the-january-pop-on-schedule/

and

 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/22/can-gold-continue-to-rise/

Can’t wait for this deal to go live.

-END-

And yes, Martin A did call the recent top in gold above $1300 and when it would do so. It was the right call, a good one. But, as you also know as highlighted here, most EVERYONE was bearish right then. Only the gold market does what the crowd expects. That said, it does not take away from the call.

Now, since you don’t want to read a book, here are some key points of interest over the years…

*From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…

May 14, 1999

Dear Chris:

I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.

There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.

I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…

***

As you know now, gold never came close to taking out $200.

From CP’s response to Martin A…

May 14, 1999

Dear Martin:

…And I don't know what other than "manipulation" you can call it when the Bank of England announces its gold sales in advance even as it says it is selling gold because it wants a better return on its assets. If the Bank of England really wanted a better return on its assets, it would not announce its gold sales until they had been completed; it would not do anything to drive down the price of the asset yet to be sold.

Obviously the IMF and Bank of England gold sales have a primarily political purpose, a purpose other than the stated purposes. We believe that this purpose is to manipulate the price of gold, thus to tamper with this traditional gauge of the integrity of currencies.

We also think "manipulation" is fairly applied to the bailout by Wall Street, at the behest of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, of Long-Term Capital Management last summer. That bailout was ADMITTEDLY manipulation; the Fed believed, and the Wall Street investment houses were persuaded, that the free market could not be allowed to work in the ordinary way, which would have meant LTCM's bankruptcy and collapse and with great losses suffered by LTCM's counterparties. So these so- called capitalists were all bailed out under government sponsorship when their casino bets went against them and threatened to take them all down. GATA believes that LTCM and its counterparites had troublesome liabilities related to gold.

Contrary to your suggestion, GATA hasn't argued that central banks should not be allowed to sell their gold. We may not consider that a wise policy, but our objection is a matter of HOW they are handling their gold. Are they, for example, leasing it in circumstances that put its recovery at risk? GATA argues that so much of this gold has been leased, sold, and absorbed by the market that its recovery could prove impossible in a short squeeze when gold's price direction changes, and that many financial institutions are at serious risk because the "gold carry trade" has gone too far. Further, there's some reason to think that the Bank of England's gold sale -- or at least its announcement that it plans to sell its gold -- was meant largely to rescue one of the big shorts in the market, another financial institution that, like LTCM, is deemed "too big to fail."…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=257&SearchParam=Armstrong

***

The Bank of England’s announcement to sell half their gold was only a week old and the egregious nature of it all attracted more adherents to the GATA camp than any other factor ever.

Martin Armstrong’s time was soon preoccupied with personal issues. However, the cordial, but contentious relationship between GATA and the brilliant Martin Armstrong was an ongoing one…

 

1/15/2000 Bill Murphy - Conversations With Marty Armstrong Before He Was Thrown In Jail

Cafe members:

A week ago today I had a two-hour conversation over the phone with investment guru Martin Armstrong which was, in many ways, quite remarkable. It was only a couple of months ago we were almost at each other's throats about GATA.

For those of you new to this story, Armstrong presided over Princeton Economics International, a renowned investment research firm that was noted for its Japanese fixed-income clients.

Armstrong was invited all over the world as a guest speaker to comment about his views of the markets. To give you some idea of the scope of his firm's worldwide presence, I took the following off the www.princetoneconomics.com web site:

"PEI seminars are held around the world in Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, London, Munich, Los Angeles, Princeton, Vancouver and Edinburgh, with normally annual events held in Beijing, Sydney and selected cities in Southeast Asia.

"All seminars are recorded and transcripts are normally available. Selected seminars are also available on video tape in NTSC or PAL. Audio tapes are available, as well, normally in English but also in Japanese for those held in Japan."

Before I get into the matter, here is the latest to bring you up-to-date about Martin Armstrong:

* * *

 

Armstrong jailed over allegedly missing assets

 

By Tony Hagen
Trenton (N.J.) Times
Saturday, January 15, 2000

NEW YORK -- Commodities guru Martin Armstrong was jailed last night after a federal judge ruled he willfully disobeyed a court order to turn over corporate records and millions in gold and antiquities.

Armstrong, who faces criminal securities fraud charges, was accused of concealing items belonging to Princeton Economics International and Princeton Economics Institute of Carnegie Center in West Windsor, N.J.

Armstrong, the head of the two companies, has pleaded innocent to charges he bilked Japanese investors out of $1 billion, and spent $16 million of their money to acquire gold, rare coins, and art work.

U.S. Magistrate Richard Owen ordered Armstrong held for 18 months or until he divulges the location of the missing assets. Armstrong was taken from the court to New York Metropolitan Correction Center.

Prosecutors said yesterday that Armstrong turned over a portion of the assets but destroyed corporate records they had demanded…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=375&SearchParam=Armstrong

***

February 11, 2000 - Spot Gold $311 down $5 - Spot Silver $5.29 down 7 cents

…Chris Powell received a letter today from Martin Armstrong. He wrote that the government seized some of the tape recordings he had made describing market manipulations. He asked Chris to get a transcript of his appearance in court Feb. 7, which would have been just a few days ago. He said the transcript "may be of great interest to your members and your cause to unravel the organized crime ring that is controlling the markets."

Chris has contacted GATA's attorney, Merrill Davidoff, to find out if they are connected enough to get the transcript.

Lordy, lordy what are we getting into?…

***

*Chris made attempts to visit Martin A in jail, but was rebuffed by the authorities.

Then, things went quiet as Mr. MA spent more than a decade in jail, which seems outrageous, but he was not a popular man with the authorities. Finally,…

Ex-Adviser Out of Jail After 11 Years, Including 7 for Contempt

 

 

By DealBook

March 15, 2011 8:14 pm March 15, 2011 8:14 pm

Martin A. Armstrong at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York in 2000.

Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News Martin A. Armstrong at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York in 2000.

Martin A. Armstrong, who prosecutors accused of running a $3 billion Ponzi scheme, is finally out of jail after 11 years, including a possible record seven years for contempt of court in a dispute over gold and antiquities.

Mr. Armstrong, a former financial adviser who once ran an investment firm called Princeton Economics International, will be held under house arrest until his federal custody ends in September, a spokesman for the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Chris Burke, told Bloomberg News.

Mr. Burke said Mr. Armstrong would be allowed to go to work and required to check in at a halfway house in the Philadelphia area. He was released last week, according to Bloomberg.

Mr. Armstrong spent seven years behind bars for contempt after he defied a federal judge’s order in January 2000 to turn over to the government about $15 million worth of gold bars, rare coins and antiquities including a bust of Julius Caesar. Normally, people held in contempt by a judge are jailed for no longer than 18 months.

Mr. Armstrong contended he did not have those assets.

As Mr. Armstrong sat in the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, federal prosecutors tried to build a criminal case against him.

Ultimately, Mr. Armstrong was sentenced to five years in prison in April 2007 after he agreed to plea guilty the year before to one count of conspiracy to hide hundreds of millions of dollars in trading losses.

After seven long years, the judge in the case finally lifted the contempt sanction so Mr. Armstrong could begin his prison term. He received no time off his prison sentence for the time he spent in the Manhattan jail.

-END-

It did not take Mr. Armstrong very long to build quite a following again. What a story!

So, Armstrong is back and GATA is still at it all these years later. The evidence we have uncovered over all this time has bolstered our case 100 times over since those early days, but it won’t make a difference to him, not as stubborn as he is.

Chris mentioned LTCM, the famed hedge fund, whose demise was threatening the financial system at the end of 1998 into 1999. GATA was on their case too, as it was very clear the bullion banks (including the Fed) were coordinating their selling of gold to keep the price below $300 an ounce. Financial institutions were short an enormous amount of gold to finance their business operations and a spike in the price could have been devastating to many of the major financial institutions in the U.S and abroad.

GATA received information that LTCM was short up to 400 tonnes of gold on their books (perhaps for the Bank of Italy, as per Rob Kirby). That position was to be protected at all costs and we made our thoughts on that matter known.

GATA received an affidavit from Eric Rosenfeld, a principal of LTCM, and a letter from their senior counsel Jim Rickards, denying being short all that gold … which is another long story.

Why bring it up? In August of 2011 Jim Rickards was a featured speaker at our Gold Rush 2011 conference at The Savoy Hotel in London. Do you think Jim would have been a speaker at a GATA conference if we were really off base? If anyone knew how right GATA was about the suppression of the gold price, and what it involved, it is him!

So, all these years later Martin Armstrong is back in the limelight and making his own waves again ... and still a gold bear. On the other side of the aisle, Jim Rickards is one of the more vociferous gold bulls around, talking about a gold reset price, etc. And GATA is still plugging away, doing what we can to expose what will eventually be the greatest financial market scandal in U.S. history.

 

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Mon, 02/16/2015 - 16:31 | 5791060 cyclist
cyclist's picture

Martin Armstrong -  I've communicated with him beginning many years ago when he was still incarcerated .....Brilliant?  Talented? Yes, I think so.  He is a marvellous historian and great memory of historical data.  He is a shrewd businessman and entrepenuer. His cycle theory is sound in foundation, as all things move in cycles. That is quite evident to most people.  However, it doesn't mean he is correct most of the time, as that would be innacurrate.   Many great qualities to be admired to be sure.  However all those things said, it doesn't put me in the pro Marty Armstrong camp.  

This economic guru has been and is wrong on as many things as he is correct. Marty is not short of predictions and statements about anything that might attract attention and pave the way to either more followers, seminars, books or slots into his magical computer which "has all the facts in the world, without the bullshit." And for only a few million dollars per year investment advisory fee. In addition to financial reports,  Armstrong is pleased to sell you a book on the secrets of the Mayan Civilization, or one of his finely hand made exclusive silver medallian chains made by European Artisans. Depends on what your buying, but be sure he can be selling if demand or interest is high enough.  His narrative is anti - gold because it suits his purposes and his target market, which is the rich and large Wall Street banks, hedge funds and financial businesses. They would not give him those hefty fees for seminars if he were pro gold. He isn't a dummy by any means. This is a rich target market.

Some folks, need to re-examine their heads, as this was a man who spend 10 years in jail. If he was behind the curtain or an invitee to "The Club" he wouldn't have sat in  jail for all those years. Unless of course he did some bad things and pissed off the Club Members.  And what are those things?  Marty has a meglomaniacal side in which he compares himself to Ghandi.  All the stuff about being persecuted and jailed without legitimacy is bullshit. It is strange and uncommon yes, but nonetheless lawful and was fact.  His ranting about conspiracy theories is just that. Why is all manipulation obvious and applicable to him, but is not the case elsewhere? It takes alot of talent to be a master BS artist and the allure of MA is much of his story telling is sprinkled with some truth and fact, which makes it all the more compelling.  Not however, accurate or true entirely. I often wonder, whether it is from an overzealous investment promoter or economic cycle wiz, why if so infallible and accurate , do they not just borrow a million dollars  and invest it according to their predictions?  Armstrong ran a hedge fun many years ago, so it wouldn't be a stretch and would not involve half the work he does now trying to promote his services. It would be simple and easy...road to riches. No hassle, no complaints, no nasty emails.

It is a tangled web we weave.....

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 17:13 | 5791319 dicksburnt
dicksburnt's picture

Martin Armstrong is brilliant, we can't argue that.   However the matrix must find ways to induct even more intelligence into itself and Martin is a clear example.     

After reading this statement "then the whole world would be happy to send/sell its gold to Americans and the USA will end up quickly with massive inflation, this same inflation that the gold standard is supposed to eliminate" my first thought was China? Russia?..... lmfao!!!   Then I remembered watching the movie 'Catch me if you can' ....... same play book!

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:11 | 5790527 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Rob Kirby dissects the latest REAL news and information. We start with the latest lies about Putin and Russia and quickly move on to the duplicity and treachery of the mockingbird mainstream media.

 

Rob breaks it down perfectly, “The reality is the media conspires with and is complicit with the governing class and the financial Elites and the Globalists who control the world… This speaks to the very essence of everything we talk about because we can bracket it all by saying, conspiracies DO exist, conspiracies are actually the norm rather than the exception and they are hiding in plain view when you’ve got sniveling lying scumbags like Brian Williams who are given such a wide berth to sell such enormous lies in so many different areas regarding issues that so profoundly affect everybody. So there it is, the stench of the mainstream press. This is a very very profound event that has occurred with Brian Williams because what it has done, it’s put a big label on the entire Western press as treasonous pieces of garbage…These people, you can’t say nasty enough things about them. But you know what? They’re signing their own death warrants by doing what they’re doing.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZTW8CRQs84

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:07 | 5790512 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Say what you want about MA but the legal case against him is highly unusual and a film about him was just released "The Forecaster".  From an unbiased view it seems the gold promoters e.g. Kingworld News do come across as used car salesmen relentlessly pitching regardless of price, and their flock of sheep are in dearest need of help.  

I like gold as a form of insurance but many customers at the LCS are freaks who are consumed with the same sky-is-falling story with every breath they take month after month, year after year.  If that's you, check yourself.  There's more to life.  

MA makes brilliant commentary on history, socialism, taxation, and many other topics.  

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:53 | 5790462 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

"The presidency must be destroyed. It is the primary evil we face, and the cause of nearly all our woes. It squanders the national wealth and starts unjust wars against foreign peoples that have never done us any harm. It wrecks our families, tramples on our rights, invades our communities, and spies on our bank accounts. It skews the culture towards decadence and trash. It tells lie after lie. Teachers used to tell schools kids that anyone can be president. This is like saying anyone can go to Hell. It’s not an inspiration; it’s a threat.

The presidency — by which I mean the executive state — is the sum total of American tyranny. The other branches of government, including the presidentially appointed Supreme Court, are mere adjuncts. The presidency insists on complete devotion and humble submission to its dictates, even while its steals the products of our labor and drives us into economic ruin. It centralizes all power unto itself, and crowds out all competing centers of power in society, including the church, the family, the business, the charity, and the community."

http://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/02/lew-rockwell/down-with-the-presidency/

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:47 | 5790434 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"As you know now, gold never came close to taking out $200."

 

It dropped to around 250. Pretty close to 200.  Inflation adjusted it was close to where it was when the gold window closed in 1971.

 

In effect, cycles complete themselves.  Oil at the low in the late 1990's was, inflation adjusted, at levels comperable to the 1930's.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:35 | 5790395 spinone
spinone's picture

Armstrong is still playing DigDug with his 80's era computer program?  Does anyone else notice this?  I fell like I'm taking crazy pills.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:35 | 5790394 The Duke of New...
The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

Isnt Martin Armstrong a CONVICTED FELON?.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:25 | 5790349 ncdirtdigger
ncdirtdigger's picture

If the Fed can 'print' endless supplies of dollars, and pay the losses in those same dollars, what concern is any loss to them? If gold is their compitition, and they can discredit gold using free dollars, why would they NOT manipulate the 'price' of gold? I would call the Fed stupid if they were not manipulating gold.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 12:23 | 5790072 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Honestly - if gold is that manipulated, then how did it go from 250 all the way to 1900 when we had nowhere near that amount of inflation in other commodities?  He actually likes gold, he just doesn't think it's going to $50,000

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 11:56 | 5790011 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Want to see what the criminal lunatic Farty Marty is all about?  Buy his "Gold Report".  What a LOAD of hyper-ego-maniacal HORSESHIT.  He should be returned to his padded cell for his current blatant con-game, his computer program "Suck-ra-tees" that tells everything, including when you should take a crap.  He is taking deposits now... and plans an IPO soon... it will be about as successful as the fishnet adult diaper.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 11:30 | 5789933 cyclist
cyclist's picture

My respect for some ZH folks just went down the drain.  Is the ZH crowd that naive about Martin Armstrong, yet so current on other issues? 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 10:21 | 5789695 SnatchnGrab
SnatchnGrab's picture

Here's the bottom line with Gold (manipulation):

Step 1  - Determine how much gold has been mined. EVER.

Step 2 -  Determine how much paper gold has been sold.

Step 3 - Say to yourself 'Holy Crap'.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 10:15 | 5789673 unbeing
unbeing's picture

So many trolls, so few bridges.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:53 | 5789597 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Of course there are times when owning gold is very prudent and wise; during the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, your life savings in fiat might have boughten you a slice of bread or a one-way trolley ticket across Berlin....

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:17 | 5789501 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

Armstrong, like all good con men is an opportunist.. he sees s group of pigeons and he plucks them. There are some fanatic never say die gold bears out there willing to ruin themselves to prove a point.. and Armstrong delivers. He even eats his own cooking... but as long as there are new pigeons.. he'll continue to deliver the rhetoric.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 11:13 | 5789864 imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

He detested bars of gold so much he was willing to go to prison in keeping them.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:10 | 5789480 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A whole bunch of mental masterbation.  Allow me to clarify the only thing you need to know when it comes to gold or any other real asset; when fraud is the status quo possession is the law.

That is all.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:05 | 5789468 unbeing
unbeing's picture

One thing I will say is Armstrong doesn't do a good job (most of the time) articulating his ideas.  A lot of it comes out half-baked, prone to misunderstanding, grammatical errors and typos to boot.  He needs a good editor.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:09 | 5790519 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"A lot of it comes out half-baked, prone to misunderstanding, grammatical errors and typos to boot."

 

Armstrong: "Most politicians are about as incapable of comprehending the economy as these automatic correction algorithms trying to anticipate what you are writing. I am getting use to typing it is a “good buy” and it changes it to “goodbye”. But I typed in “Athens” and it changed it to “at he’s” "

 

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 21:09 | 5792242 Wevil Bildit
Wevil Bildit's picture

Maybe he should turn it off?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:03 | 5789463 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

Today all markets are manipulated all the time. Particularly the fiat anchor, gold.

The Central Banks are the CME's biggest customer.

Anyone who tries to obfuscate, apologize for, or otherwise muddy the water regarding this matter is the enemy of the truth, the enemy of free markets and probably has a financial or career interest in the syndicate party line.

Martin Armstrong certainly qualifies with his FBI ball and chain.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:24 | 5790569 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Today all markets are manipulated all the time. Particularly the fiat anchor, gold."

 

The trend cannot be manipulated.  Once a cycle peaks, the trend is down.  The FED rate peaked in 1981 and has declined toward zero ever since.

Once a bubble bursts, it deflates.

When gold rose from 250 to 1,900, i don't recall anyone saying it was being manipulated upward.

62% don't have enough money to cover a major unexpected expense, such as a major car repair.  They don't have the money to buy gold.

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:02 | 5789330 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Armstrong (and his ilk) in a nutshell: when found to be wrong, he'll rationalize.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:56 | 5790662 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Armstrong (and his ilk) in a nutshell: when found to be wrong, he'll rationalize."

 

Armstrong: "Here is the trailer regarding the the forecast that the Swiss Peg would break. A brief explanation about why pegs always fail"

No reason to rationalize something that has a 100% rate of failure.

 

 

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 10:48 | 5789745 Arius
Arius's picture

well he gives you 12 potential scenerios and probably one will be close ,,, if instead of october 2015 he would said february 2015, the greek crisis would qualify as the big bang ... now it doesnt count ...

 

he was even taking credit for pointing to the right date in ukraine ... now how do you compute that into your model? 

 

He reminds me of Dr.Evil after he awake up on the table conversation with his deputies ... he starts by saying will ask for 1 million dollar, then something else outdated ... armstrong is the same, he has been too long out of the game and doenst realize what the information age is today .... he is still with his old tactics, which he was good at, but simple times have passed ...

 

once he claimed his computer will answer anything ... simple BS, but a good connected con man ... somehow must have gotten into the bad side of powers to be with that New Republic bank fiasco, but CEO of that bank basra or somebody was found killed in monaco ... so obviously some big thing went on ... now he seems to be back doing what he does best ... con man

 

HOWEVER, i like to read him ... he is intellectually challenging

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 10:29 | 5789724 unbeing
unbeing's picture

Meaning 99% of humanity

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 06:46 | 5789321 Firewood
Firewood's picture

As good as gold

 

After 6000 years plus it will take more than shills like Rickards, Armstrong, Collins and their basket case IMF BIS SDR fiat garbage to tarnish what for mankind has always been a store of value.

 

Stack and then some!

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD3KYlpE2lk

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:01 | 5790495 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"After 6000 years plus it will take more than shills like Rickards, Armstrong, Collins and their basket case IMF BIS SDR fiat garbage to tarnish what for mankind has always been a store of value."

 

The price of gold dropped for 20 years, 850 to 250.  Inflation occured during that entire time.  The DOW went from 1,000 to 11,000 during that time.

So who is the shill?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 06:13 | 5789303 holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

Or just not quite there!

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:24 | 5789230 CHX
CHX's picture

His model must include paper PM, i.e. ++100 times more PM than actually exist, and this is what sets the price for the real thing. I'm sure he'd be the frist to acknowledge that one rather hold some fizz WHEN all these fraudulent paper claims go poof. What will be the price then? 10 times higher? 100 times higher, or as everybody sees the light 1000 times higher? What does his paper model say what will happen, when paper burns burns burns? Inquiring minds would like to know. Till then, good for him.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 21:18 | 5792266 Wevil Bildit
Wevil Bildit's picture

What I suspect is that he isn't takin into account what will happen when the physical runs out and no one is sellling any more. He knows gold will go exponentional in 2016,17 & 18 as I recall, but he's currently tellin gevery not to buy gold at this stage as it still has a way to go before it bottoms out. I haven't read the gold report and would love to see that (hint...hint). But it may well be that the physical stops supply before the bottom arrives and there'll be little point in buying ETF's at that stage and those who hold the gold will be sitting pretty. One thing I've noticed is that even when he's saying don't buy gold, he's always saying buy gold coins. Not bullion.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 09:14 | 5789487 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

His models specifically exclude the rehypothecation leverage and stick to "pure" technical analysis (albeit with some non-standard variables)... if you read the legal disclaimers that everyone usually ignores (specifically the paragraph on CFTC Rule 4.41).  At the same time if you plot a major reversal off the price decline from the 1980 high, the sky is the limit (price wise) before taking into account the potential spread between official market and black market prices in an environment of rising distrust of and revulsion with government -- so on a long enough timeline, validity will come down to picking a reversal date correctly in his case, given the "wiggle room" in the disclaimer (which would apply to everyone making recommendations anyway).

On the bright side- he doesn't appear to fall into the trap that most do with respect to using the Washington DC (official price) instead of the London (or other trading price) prior to the CRIMEX gold contract launch in the 70's - which really undercuts the believability of a lot of prognosticators (the flat line on a price chart is even less realistic than a hockey stick on a temperature chart). 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:18 | 5789226 cherg
cherg's picture

I lost all respect for MA when I heard him talking about how his theory and computer models were based on pi. He sounds like a complete loon to me.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 15:10 | 5790707 moneybots
moneybots's picture

Cycles repeat.

 

Back in Biblical times debts were forgiven every 7th year.  The business cycle is 7 years.  The same cycle endures.  The business cycle is not loony.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:16 | 5789225 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

I lost so much money following GATA and Co... I was young and I wanted to believe so hard in what they were saying. I bought physical gold at $300 and I'm still holding on to it, but I lost so much more with their once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity stock recommendations which invariably ended in bankrupcty, delisting or pink sheets. The emorraging finally ended once I found Martin Armstrong and made quite a bit of cash following his free blog. Still far from recovering the GATA losses, but happy to be out of that crazy camp. How can GATA keep on repeating the same nonsense over and over again? How can they keep on saying BUY BUY BUY without a break? When gold is up, it's because of fundamentals, when it's down it's ALWAYS intervention. Come on... 

When in 2008 everything was falling apart I was looking forward to my investments to skyrocket and what happened? The exact opposite, with gold down 30% and the stocks down to basically zero. That showed to me that they don't understand what they are talking about.... and they are barinwashing people making them lose their shirts and pesnions. Luckily I am young and have still time to recover!

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:56 | 5789260 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Drunk or trolling?

If you bought physical at $300 and still holding on to it you have done by far the best performing investment ever seen.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 22:02 | 5792420 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

It wasn't so hard... I bought as many coins as I could and put them into a safety deposit box where they still rest. Problem is, I didn't have much money to start with...

Best investment ever? Well, your reference points must be a bit wierd... For example real estate in several Asian capitals increased 10x in 7 years. Just saying...

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 08:14 | 5789399 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Trolling...it's a common traits from these pricks...they are bitter and twisted but but...they also claim to be the smartest guy in the room after turning their inheritance into a small nation's GDP. FUCKING VERMIN.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 22:04 | 5792431 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

The smartest guy in the room admitting losing on shitty stock picking? I'm just trying to give merit to MA, nothing else.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:41 | 5789244 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

GATA does not make any stocks picks. Who the fuck are you kidding. They are a non profit information organization. They sell nothing. Troll harder next time.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 22:06 | 5792447 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

You have never read Le Metropole Cafe and the other stuff published by the GATA's entourage then. Come on... never heard of ECU Silver Mining or Samex Mining?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:17 | 5789339 BigJim
BigJim's picture

To be fair, he may actually have lost his pesnion, whatever that may be.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 08:11 | 5789396 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

But he seemingly managed to avoid having his barin washed.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 22:10 | 5792458 Jiiins
Jiiins's picture

I was totally brain washed and I was the staunchest GATA supporter. 100% my fault of course! They were exactly the cause I want to fight for. I think their heart is in the right place, but they don't want to see reality and understand that in their crusade, right or wrong, they are hurting people, sometimes pretty badly, by swearing on their mothers that any day now gold will jump to $30k or whatever random number is "the consensus" today.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:16 | 5789223 ebear
ebear's picture

Martin Armstrong is the Jerzy Kosinski of investing.  Very interesting to read, but not someone you'd want in your bunker.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 03:29 | 5789194 holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

I have great admiration for MA. He has guts and he has been harshly treated. His system also seems to work, but his brain is hardwired to dealing in and out to maximize profits.

Longer view you would have to be dumb, blind and deaf not to believe in gold, but short term, there will be many ups and downs. Something that had value since before the days of ancient Egypt in my book will stand the test of time, especially because that test will consiste of devaluing everything in sight by just making more. Gold is imune to that, and will carry the day, some day!

I thus find MA's attitude to gold of little value to me. I am not in gold to maximize my profits. I am in gold to keep my shirt when all others will loose theirs.

Like I wouldn't buy a life jacket to make a profit by hiring it out, I would do it to save my life.

Armstrong advocates jumping from ship to ship to get ahead. I think I am better off having a lifeboat.

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:05 | 5790509 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Yet the problem is not money or currency or the price of gold, it is governance, it is the people who print money and set rates and make laws that define our circumstances. While I can agree with the premise that gold is security, if we live in a world that is deliberately manipulated to defy market pressures, a world that can outlaw money crossing borders, forcibly remove cash from your body as evidence of a potential crime, please explain how gold or silver is a safe haven? It is our government that is the threat, its policies, its laws and their arbitrary enforcement. They can (and will) outlaw transactions in gold if gold ever competes seriously with the dollar. Everything they are is about power and that power can only be retained through confidence and/or force. They will use force to maintain confidence, and fall back on force alone to maintain control.

ALL investments, even gold, have their specific time. There is money to be made in gold and stocks and anything else you can think of to bet on, but its always about timing. A truly secure investment is not reliant on the timing of a bet, and gold is a bet. Yes, all will pass, but I'm talking of our life time, not a hundred years from now.

If things get as bad as many of us think, gold could be as useless as a lead weight. Ultimately our brain is our only real defense and security, and if past performance is any indicator of the future, we are fucked.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 03:13 | 5789183 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

step one; All pegs will fail. get a mortgage in Euros NOW. USD to the moon, dow at 35000 Bond crash in oct 2015 gold's next high 2020

step two???

step three???

step four; profit.

And he's giving that away for free.  Beats the hell out of Debby doom and her cousin up in this crib.

Go Martine!

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 10:52 | 5789800 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Dollar must be close to a top with posts like this...

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