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"I Live In Constant Fear" Kyle Bass Explains How We Got Here
"I constantly feel inadequate, which may be what drives me," Kyle Bass tells Raoul Pal in this excellent discussion between two of the world's foremost (non-status-quo-hugging everything-will-be-fine) market practitioners. The interview with Bass, from the newly launched Real Vision TV, covers everything from how he got started in his career, what drives him, his process "it's an art - there is no science to it", and not only how we got here, but where we are going (inevitably)...
The Chain with Kyle Bass from Real Vision Television on Vimeo.
How do you find trades? "I wish I could tell you there was some magical screen but in fact "it's an art - there is no science to it"
For example...
"How did I get involved in Japan? When the bad assets were moving from private balance sheets to public balance sheets, I decided to look around the world to try to understand what the public balance sheets looked like (this is in late 2008)... and found them right at what I believe is an inflection point - when their population began to decline."
Bass also explains how he deals with the ubiquitous negativity that comes with being wrong on occasion as a fund manager...
"I think, as you know, the people who are really really good at this are ... how do I put it? They're not tremendous social people, right. They all have these crazy quirks and interesting lifestyles. They're generally all good people, the ones I've met ... I live in constant fear. Again, I live with this constant feeling of inadequacy that drives me so hard to succeed and be a proven fiduciary ... And that's what's always driven me. There are these two forces in life — positive reinforcement and negative reinforcement."
Humility appears to be key... Something we suspect more than a few other managers - guru-ised in this one-way street of a market - have yet to learn.
At 43:20, What really captivates Bass currently - and he explains he is working onm the exposition of this over the next few months - is the lack of liquidity:
"Forget equities, we saw the plumbing in the credit markets make moves that I thought we could never see... there is this confluences of events where the world has been driven to the daily liquidity of ETFs at the exact same time as broker-dealers are unable to take on risk [due to regulatory controls]... there aren't true circuit-breakers so we see gaps - and the gaps are huge - so we go from a no-vol world to a vol-world that goes off the charts because of the way the market is constructed today. What worries me is how the construct works across both equities and credit..."
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Wake up Bitchezzzzz.. Something bad is on the way.
"Click image for the full interview"
Yes.., well that really worked out...
FFS Tyler
Here's a link that works:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DGU7emQqYc
Thanks
"GEE Mr. Peabody, you even figured out how to begin a post in italics without locking out voting!"
An apt handle indeed.
He's afraid?
Shit, I'm living paycheck to paycheck.
You're getting paid? I keep getting these pieces of paper that I have pay to use after paying to earn them, and then paying for the right to hold them...
"They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work."
Are you not part of the amazing Obama-inspired recovery!?! How did you miss out?
Come to think of it, tens of millions of others have missed out, too.
One word: Nickels.
Fungible? Tick.
Durable? Tick.
Divisible? Tick.
Scarce? Kinda.
Portable? Not so much.
All those nickels. Pure genius.
True story: my maternal grandparents collected so many agates from the sea shores that their back porch finally collapsed under the sheer weight of them all. There was always the perfume of Maxwell House coffee and the sound of the rock polishing tumbler when one entered their house.
Interesting video! The interview was in mid October 2014 and Kyle said he was working on something big and might be able to say more about it in roughly 6 months, probabaly less.
Anybody have any thoughts?
Watching this interview is like getting that weired feeling before a flight, but you get on anyways and it crashes.
From the sounds of it Kyle Bass thinks the Swiss CB unpeg is still unwinding and going to kick the markets in the balls and with all the difrrent policy divergence occuring with the various world governments/CB's it could make this unwind worse. (espesially if the Fed Reserve actually decides to increase interest rate by more than just a token amount.)
If these guys are right the credit-ism economy the West has might unravel within a few days once the big dominoes start to fall. And god knows if governments and CB's can pull another rabbit out of their hat to paper over and keep the game going a bit longer.
Doesn't sound like you watched it, because if you had, you'd realize it was taped in October, a couple months before the Swiss unpegged the Franc from the Euro.
Politics (and wall street) is showbiz for ugly people...
Uncle Nickels
"...it came to me in a dream..."
Fear and inadequacy - the two major product lines of MSM.
.
Sounds like you need a blacked out jacked up Humvee with monster tires........
This guy has a bigger forehead than me and im bald, impressive
As a waiter during college, my son waited on Bass a number of times. He doesn't remember him fondly.
Did your son EXPECT to get fondled?
Bass was big buds with Chris Kyle. I could never figure out why someone as rich s Bass couldn't take care of Chris Kyle's widow financially. The woman has gone through hell, especially with that jerk Jessie Ventura.
Somebody paid the big bucks for that gargantuan memorial service for Chris Kyle at Cowboy Stadium. Uncle Google couldn't tell me who. I've been wondering if Kyle Bass picked up that tab.
Can anybody tell me who paid that bill?
(I'm nosey.)
I guess that means you couldn't figure out how Jesse won his court case with Chris Kyles widow or how she is by no means poor. But go on and write her a letter and see if she will support you and see what you get.
Taya Kyle is the biggest "story" ever foisted on us by the rah rah Gummint. She speaks from the dais at NRA-ILA, she gets a standing O and the proceeds from a sniper rifle raffle at the SHOT show. Now we find that she wants to sue CKs business partners for a piece of Craft. What the blue hades does a poor widow want with a merc, excuse me, operators outfit? Her lawyer has said that if the partners dissolve and or have a side business, she wants a piece of that too. Now here is the tricky part, the partners say that CK specifically wanted her distanced from Craft, and apparently divorce papers were filed but never finalized. The Pentagon gets the hero widow of their wet dreams and she is playing the part to the hilt. Jessica Lynch crashed and burned, Pat Tillman got burned. By golly, they got their story this time, and it's name is Taya Kyle.
She gives speeches to the NRA but is being used by the government?
Jessie Ventura didn't have enough class to drop his silly lawsuit after Chris Kyle got killed and tries to take it of of the estate. What a P.O.S..
Maybe your waiter son was like most - young, could give a shit, and it showed. Why should Bass treat your son like a special snowflake if he's getting served by a snot-nosed punk nursing a hangover?
Yeah... whatever, pops.
A kind of vague smear, care to elaborate? Is he just an asshole after a bottle of wine, or does he just leave a bad tip?
I'm just a hairy guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_zaSKZks1A
Hair "Aquarius" AND "Let The Sunshine In" (the original Broadway cast)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxonNvuCFRY
A old Chevy truck with a carburetor and simple ignition system. Parts will be everywhere
That's why I was infuriated by "cash for clunkers." Many perfectly good bare-bones vehicles were permanently removed from the market.
Can't have a whole load of owner-serviceable vehicles out there, can we?
Don't forget remote control capabilities a la Hastings.
Or unregulatable sources of heat, like woodstoves.....
The-Right-Sector
Translated by Kristina Rus
RIGA, 12 Feb - RIA Novosti.
February 12, 2015
Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic Vladimir Kononov said that 17 territorial battalions involved in the fighting in the South-East of Ukraine pulled out of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and went under the control of the Right Sector.
"I have data that 17 territorial battalions withdrew from subordination to UAF and came under the jurisdiction of Yarosh. This is the "Right Sector". "Right Sector" never fulfilled any agreements and in fact they constantly provoked further clashes," - said Kononov on Thursday on Latvian TV show "Tonight" on channel LTV7.
"Right Sector" - is a Ukrainian union of radical nationalist organizations. In January and February 2014 the militants of the movement were engaged in clashes with the police and the seizure of administrative buildings, and since April - in the suppression of protests in the East of Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly called on Kiev to disarm illegal armed groups, including the militants of the "Right Sector".
http://www.degaray.com/?p=4967
They are getting ready to throw Porky under the bus.
Yarosh is Kolomoyskyi's man, and directly responsible for the downing og MH17. The Nazi and the Jew, who would have thunk it?
Nazis and the Big Jews were business partners even during the WW2.
Wall Street and the rise of Hitler - Antony Sutton: http://vho.org/aaargh/fran/livres5/suttonhitler.pdf
Or just google "Henry Ford got nazi medal from Hitler"
Just a single quote: In 1938 the Warburgs were being ejected by the Nazis from Germany. Other German Jews, such as the
Oppenheim bankers, made their peace with the Nazis and were granted "honorary Aryan status."
"Humility appears to be key..."
Bravo!
"We are
Born like this
Into this
Into a country where the jails are full and the madhouses closed
Into a place where the masses elevate fools into rich heroes"
— Charles Bukowski
Leonard Lizard Humor – Enjoy\
Fear of failure is what has driven me for years....sounds like that is what drives Kyle too.
Success has definitely not gone to his head.
Fuck them Kyle, the utopian lifestyle is burning quicker than their banking donations to become a new socialist puppet.
exactly how many years is it reasonable to grant him for his thesis to be proven out? still waiting for that Japanese debt crisis, dude.
i mean, can I also get credit for predicting a global financial crisis when it happens within the next 10 years? this site is descending into a total farce.
Well, as I recall, about three years ago when asked for his 'trade of the decade', he said sell yen, buy gold, and come back in ten years.
So another seven?
Well..., buy gold priced in yen, anyway.
Haven't figured out how to do that, yet...
That's a bit harsh. This site does way better than most, period.
Are you serious? Have you looked at a chart of the yen? The debt crisis is happening to Japan right now. It does not necessarily manifest itself as a drubbing of the debt. If the CB buys up all that debt guess what. It gets manifested in the currency instead. Which is just what he and others have been saying all along. Not wrong on that one.
Right, you only make money by day -trading. That whole waiting for value why that's so stupid.
Just buy, buy, buy! Just go with the flow......you are so smart that YOU will get out right before the trap door opens!
I say leverage up and just go for it dude! Fed's got your back! Just put it on black and never look back!
Normally I'd give you kudos for calling out someone doing a "Marxist" (predicting 12/3 of the last 3 recessions), but Bass thesis on Japan is spot on.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp
The Yen has dropped like 20% since he started talking that trade, which is a huge move in his favor.
400 bucks to learn the value of a nickel. fuck you VTV
Ive been a subscriber since it first came out. Its been worth it. I am not one of those people who buys everyones newletter either. Aside from WSJ I dont pay for any news. But Ive been very satisfied with the service. Theres about 2-3 hours of content every week, some very good discussions like this and occasionally good trade ideas are given. I dont go to conferences or anything so this is a good way for me to find out what a lot of people in finance are thinking / doing. Theres too many bitcoin videos though, that is the one knock against it
But you watched it here for free?
when your part of the team everything is Awesome
I would do kyle...sexy...
"Nickelfinger", the man with a Midas touch...
Kyle Bass: inadequacy.
Hugh Hendry: self loathing.
Hey Kyle
You need to come to Washington D.C. next week and hook up with Brad Cooper at Cafe Milano in Georgetown to celebrate the hero you use to party with before he became "worm food" and disgraced his family name and his Country as a traitor, much like your reputation as an "investor"!
Order the Osso Buco with a bottle of Monfortino Barolo it's f-ing awesome! The "tribe" will be there with Clint to celebrate the PR success of the film...
They're buyin!!!
I had to go all the way up to the top to log in, and get all the way back here, just to downvote you.
If you know so much, how come you misssed the big short in 2007? Kyle didn't.
And Brad has not disgraced his family name or his country. He was just a good ole boy that followed his duty as he saw it. I certainly don't agree with 'my country, right or wrong', but if the SHTF, I'll take a dozen of Brad Coopers to my front and back over a hundred captain Nemos with their white flags...
If you know so much, how come you misssed the big short in 2007? Kyle didn't.
With a little help from his friends!...
Leaderless first transport to Donetsk starts next month. I'm sure if your under age 50 and can run 1 mile in less than 12 minutes you've got yourself an M-16 and a new job in the U.S. military doing America's "work"!
If the SHTF we'll run to you for answers. When the government you work for creates and funds the enemy and the soldiers that fight them you have to live in the worst Nation of losers that ever existed!
Happy P-Day!
Oh look, another keyboard warrior spewing "tribe" and all the other bullshit.
ZH is so full of nuts, its a wonder the articles keep getting posted at all. Whatever maaaaan.
These guys will be the ones bunkered away in refurbished ICBM tubes or on private islands. The rest of us will be fighting the endless throngs of walking half-dead. 2015 will be an interesting year.
https://vimeo.com/118191235
the google god supplied this one, it was working as of post.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DGU7emQqYc
what a fuck boy
To manage money, big money, you don't have to be that smart. You have to look smart. Bass is smart in part because he knows how to look smart.
These guys get filthy rich becasue there is so much money sloshing around looking for return. No one really knows what is going to happen; but they play the game.
A sound money system would never support this BS.
He did talk the the University of Texas (where he is a trustee) to buy $1 billion in physical gold for their endowment at around $800/oz, so he's "got that going for him".
But GM is cheap!
I love that the Internet allows me to be a fly on the wall at that kind of conversation. My favourite parts were towards the end, where there was only about 11:30 left, and then, about 4:30 left!
I believe that we are about to see volatility like NEVER BEFORE, while discussing that trend is the most interesting thing we can currently do.
You'd think he could afford to get some hair.
The average working stiff is mostly worried about his/her next paycheck, and how to pay the bills coming due. They have no clue about derivatives, how interest rates are set, why the price of gold is what it is, or the negative rates in the European Union. They have no clue what is going on in Greece, Italy, or Spain.
At some point, one of the above, or some other entity, will go bankrupt, and they will wonder what the hell hit them, when their job or their savings or their pension simply evaporates and dissappears, and they end up on the street.
Only then will they ask the right questions, but it will be too late to do anything about it, except riot and plunder the local Walmart, hoping to live another 24-48 hours before starvation sets in.
They might understand it then, but not before.
"Policy Divergence is where the money will be made" This was filmed in October of 2014. and I would say the Swiss diverged a bit wouldn't you? This is one of the smartest guys out there and if you don't agree you have not been paying attention. NO one's timing is ever perfect, and other than that an the JC Penny trade he is pretty damn sharp. If you don't know how he tried to warn Wall Street of the subprime collapse and show them what was happening only to be ignored and only then making the shorts well now you do. Not a ruthless greedy guy the ignorant make him out to be.
agree
Cold reading.
There is nothing bad on the way, you just haven't noticed that it's been here already.
There is little bad and big bad, the big bad is yet to come.
Kyle Bass seems to be the opposite of Peter Schiff, a man bought up in a banking dynasty.
Self made men deserve respect in a way that those who inherit their wealth just don't.
Last I checked Peter Schiff's dad was a political activist who is in jail. Banking dynasty?
If you don't have a whole hour, just watch after 43:00 to the end for the macro view boffinry. I liked the analogy of the Fed keeping the stock / bond investment vehicle on the road, so nobody needs to drive. At least CALPERS decided that it is smart enough to do it all itself (in Sep 2014) so they fired their HedgeFundies.
In 2015:
Some boffins think the Fed will raise rates as early as April - as they realize that the Fed policies are distorting the whole world with NZIRP. There go the "training wheels" mentioned in the video if this really happens.
OT sort of, but related to the mention of CALPERS: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/feb/11/sacramento-bankrupt-Californi...
Justice Christopher Klein says that CALPERS is just another creditor in CA bankruptcy processes. Let's see how this plays out with their table pounding - this was a new phrase for me :-) :
"If you have the facts on your side, pound the facts. If you have the law on your side, pound the law. If you have neither on your side, pound the table."
Justice Christopher Klein says that CALPERS is just another creditor in CA bankruptcy processes.
Wow.
I believe his Japan bet currently playing out...just look at USDJPY =118 from 80 ..of course far from the target of 200 but still making money...I doubt there is a lot of traders who really try to short JPY debts and go against the CB...who just buy it almoust directly from the JP government...
But out of this interview it does not clear his stance about US equities..some of them is highle overvalued.
Here you can find more on potential US shorts:
Time to short some overvalued US tech stocks:
http://prudentvalueinvestor.blogspot.com/2015/02/linkedin-corporation-ln...
So.....is the economy in the dumper, or not? I see TLT weakening, suggesting higher rates. I see the "proxy" bond, CD's weakening, i.e., SO, DUK, JNJ, etc. So, maybe the Fed doesn't raise rates, but the markets do? God, I wish I still had full brains.