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The Last Time This Happened, US GDP Crashed By 5%
It was about a year ago today, when economist consensus, ever true to its "momentum extrapolation" ways, predicted that in the first quarter of 2014 US GDP would grow by a solid 2.2% (down from 2.9% predicted several months previously). This happened even as the very economists forecasting the GDP number allegedly had problems getting to and from work, due to all the snow and cold weather. Yes, in the middle of winter: truly unheard of.
The rest was history: a few months later when the final calculation of annualized Q1 GDP was released on June 25, the BEA reported that it had crashed by a whopping 2.9%: a delta of more than 5%!
And since nobody had predicted such an epic collapse in the US economy, an excuse was promptly cobbled together: the weather, and specifically, the "polar vortex" of January and early February, that was raging at the time when those calculating the impact of the weather on GDP only saw it subtracting a few basis points of growth.
The reason we brings this up is because as those who have been following the ridiculous weather in Boston and its surroundings over the past 30 days, when as reported previously the city has seen a record monthly accumulation of snow, and the Northeast in general, the weather this year is as bad if not worse as the "polar vortex" that hobbled the US economy a year ago and cost over $100 billion of lost annualized growth for the quarter.
Actually scrap "as bad" - it is worse. According to Reuters "record-breaking cold gripped the Eastern United States on Monday as an icy winter storm crippled the nation's central states before it was expected to barrel toward the mid-Atlantic in time to snarl Tuesday's morning commute."
Heavy snowfall and ice moving from the Southern Plains eastward pounded Missouri, Arkansas, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio, the National Weather Service said. Freezing rain encased Nashville in ice, cancelling flights and closing Interstate 24, according to the Tennessee Department of Transportation.
Even the home of the king of rock 'n' roll - Elvis Presley's Graceland mansion in Memphis - declared a snow day.
Sleet in Arkansas shut schools and Governor Asa Hutchinson told nearly all government workers to stay home.
Cars skidded off roads near Louisville, Kentucky, where there were six times the usual number of accidents and a fleet of more than 1,000 snow plows tried to clear slick roads, officials said.
"It's been all hands on deck," said Chuck Wolfe, spokesman for the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet.
Citing nasty weather, Kentucky's state legislature said it would not reconvene until Wednesday at the earliest.
The storm, which dumped 10 inches (25 cm) of snow on Cincinnati, causing roadway accidents and closing universities, was headed for the nation's capital later on Monday, with up to 12 inches of snow expected, said NWS meteorologist Brian Hurley. "Washington and Baltimore - that's where the bulls eye's going to be," Hurley said.
About 50 million Americans were under wind chill advisories as the mercury plunged to new depths, breaking records in New York, where it was 5 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 15 Celsius) compared with the previous record for Feb. 16 of 9 F in 2003, and Washington, D.C., where it was 6 F compared with 11 F recorded in 1987, said Hurley.
The coldest spots in the nation were Watertown, New York, where it was minus 34 F but winds were calm and New Hampshire's Mount Washington, where it was minus 35 F but the winds made it feel chillier, Hurley said.
"We figure it's probably 85 below with the wind chill - and that's being conservative," Hurley said.
And just so there is no confusion - for the benefit of economists of course, not their far less clueless peers, the weatermen - here is the Weather Channel's latest update:
Finally, scrap what we said about this only impacting the Northweat: the entire US is being slammed again, just like during the first Polar Vortex of 2014.
So clearly the question is now that Q1 GDP estimates are once again facing the same trajectory as precisely a year ago (and that doesn't even include the real threat of the West Coast port strike spilling over and truly slamming the US economy), how long until the current consensus economic forecast...
... is slashed by the same 5% that the Polar Vortex of 2014 magically crushed seasonally-adjusted Q1 2014 GDP growth by?
Or perhaps this time will be different, and the laughable cadre of propaganda sycophants known as tenured and/or Wall Street economists finally admits that cold weather in the winter had nothing to do with the economic plunge a year ago, and everything to do with the fact that when it comes to integrity and accuracy of economic data and estimations, the US now ranks pari passu with the Chinese department of truth?
Unless, of course, just like last year economists discover that it was "really cold" post hoc once again, and none other than the Fed decides to blame, drumroll, the weather for crushing its best laid plans (of central planners and men) to hike rates some time in the summer of 2015.
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Just Briallant sluething...oMG!
Baltic index
Ports closed
and now THIS???? lol
My wife told me last nite she was late getting home at 2 AM because of a polar vortex
Yes... that was what she said...
By Thursday, at least up here on the Blue Ridge Plateau of Southwestern VA, the high will be 5 degrees F and the low -10. So basically all that snow becomes a solid block of ice.
Thank God Mrs. Cog sent me and the child unit out earlier for chips and (GDP) dip. :-)
last week in LA area it seemed like it was 90 deg. the spreads are widening...
Let 'em freeze to death in NYC, the Hamptons, Greenwich and DC
If the power goes out and the EBT cards don't work,
we might just see a zombie apacolypse.
They'll be huddled at home waiting for someone to come save them and bring in some hot food and recharges for their phones. They will be found with their thumbs frozen to their phone screens.
Bullish the worse the weather news the higher the ramp in stawks
Bullish cardboard box houses over those sidwalk steam vents.
I used to feel so bad seeing people freezing their asses under those make-shift cardboard boxes in Philly when I lived there half starving to death ... in the wealthiest nation in the world with record Wall Street bonuses and saturated with Hope & Change from the Messiah.
..... show cares about the US citiens an as the liar chief fudgepacker gets to continue its celebrity grand imperial golf life along with all the othelected ruling political elite turds a well as the gubmint bureaucrats who make more mney, havth insurance, more holidays and paid sickleave and betterh retirment plans than the serfis and peaas
Yeah, I hope that forecast is a big wiff.
Damn ground hog.
Groundhog should have a price on his head. Dead or dead.
Groundhog should have a price on his head. Dead or dead.
The last one down here sure was (a wiff).
The weather hysterics on TV & Radidio actually dropped the words "wind chill" when saying how cold it was going to get...THE TEENS!!! they said. My gawd I thought Mrs.N was gonna crack up, "Get wood!"...I cocked an eyebrow & looked at her..."No asshole, firewood!!!"
It got to 29...air temp, just below freezing, big whup.
Ya can't always get what ya want...lol.
Ice all over the freeway in middle TN. Everything is closed. 20 car pile-up in Murfreesboro.
Hey there Cog you must live close by to me.
I hope you dig out safely. I'm heading down that way later this week.
SW VA is a good place - I have family down there.
NoVa
Cog the models I've looked at say your area is going to see -35 C over Friday night into Saturday, with the 'feels-like' near -40 C in your area, and a big snow storm to follow on Sunday as it warms back to -5 C, from the south.
Be cool! ;-)
so wrong... yet so funny...
Isn't the Polar Vortex the old Alberta Clipper?
Wasn't that a Siberian Front back in the day?
Yeah. Back when I was a kid in Des Moines it was called a blizzard. And I remember well, because I got to shovel while dad sat by the fire watching the Bears.
Me and my shovel made my personal cash register ring during those cold snowy New England winters of the 50's and 60's. I had a regular route I shoveled, with customers so loyal they would send others away and wait for me and my shovel to appear. :-)
and you have graduated to shoveling bullshit in 2015 - congrats - you learned a lot
Need a license and a permit from the city/county to do that now.
New 'Murica.
Alberta clipper is offensive to Canadians.
Do you think that someone else is working on her?)
Any time a woman mentions something with a pole involved its never good.
And the stock market is over 18000.
This is the end.
I'm going home early.
It's clearly time to move the BEA, BLS, & Wall St. to a warmer climate.
Move them to the Cayman islands where other book cooking occurs
And Shrub can come and visit his money.
and brilliant sleuthing too...sorry snowing in DC and wine flowing...
It's my fault. I peed in the ocean and cause the water to rise and warm it up. It's all pee infused global warming's fault. My bad.
You bastard!!!
Don't swim in the ocean, fish shit in it!
"It's all pee infused global warming's fault."
Please don't give the criminals any ideas.
I can picture Gore, and the like, soon bloviating about how pissing is causing the glaciers to melt, and the polar bears to sweat, and how more theft, taxes, are needed."If mankind keeps pissing at this rate, there will be no snow in the Northern Hemisphere by 2020...blah, blah. lying blah."
The banksters need to repay us.
Damn! How much beer did you drink?
How much beer? Is that a trick question?
I'm standing outside spraying my aerosol cans indiscriminately into the air. What are you doing to stop this madness?
What am I doing?
Drinking more beer and eating meat infused with cheese, tomatoes, almonds, raisins, and spices stuffed Jalapenos. I'm going to fart the world back into making Greenland Greenland again!
I have doubled my breathing rate and have maintained a constant erection !!!
It's easily the warmest winter we've had here in CO the 6 I've spent here. The norm is -20 or colder for at least a month in our valley. It was -10 for 2 days in Dec. It's been near 60 for highs all last week.
Winter Storm Octavia? Conditioning for the sheeple.
Why does every storm need to have a fucking name? Jesus Christ, it's fucking winter, it snows and it gets cold. Get over yourself .gov
true...and when i was a kid we didnt have a "wind chill" wtf is that? Just tell me the gd temp
Naming winter storms is the Weather Channel's idea. Their website is also a nightmare.
And who gives the Weather Channel its ideas? You do know who the owner of the Wether Channels is, don't you?
Blackstone Group and Bain along with NBC who also owns MSNBC and CNBS
All the fucking good stuff of life.
Assholes
YES .... IT'S OWNED BY THE NEW FUCKING WORLD ORDER
Yup. And in 2012 that consortium bought up WeatherUnderground.com and started bitching up their website. Half of the "features" don't work right and it eats up free memory like crazy. They tend to predict snow that never happens until a snowstorm does hit and then they are wrong about that too. There's a local group of forecasters that are meteorology and atmospheric science students supervised by college professors and professional meteorologists. They're pretty damn good and admit ahead of time that their forecasts can be a bust and explain why.
http://www.footsforecast.org
redshield
Suzanne Summers? Edgar Winter? Spring Byington? Lester Fall?
In conclusion, I offer, ~ Heavy Weather by The Weather Report ~ 1977. Seems approriate and anytime I'm reminded to pull out the old Jaco Pastorious it makes me smile. On with the collapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPvtEa9j-go
"You do know who the owner of the Wether Channels is, don't you?"
Probably some branch department of the Hebrewtocracy.
Uh, that's not the .gov. That's since the NBC took over the Weather Channel. Since they can no longer have Brian Williams reading stories about his exploits as "The Amazing Spiderman" they decided to name winter storms because bitches and ho's decided that the hurricane names weren't honoring their big butts enough.
What big butts and winter storms have in relation is beyond me, then again, this is NBC/Weather Channel, the worst network in US history since the old USSR's Radio Moscow World Service.
Yeah what's with this naming winter storms crap for god sakes it is just a run of the mill snowstorm. It is mid February after all. I remember many a big storm coming thrugh the mid atalntic this time almost every year. God we have become such a bunch of pussyfied whiners. Now we live down in SWVA we are looking to get 10-15 inches no biggie lots of firewood in the box and the woodstove is cranking as I busily work at listing stuff on Ebay, our job by the way lol time for that wine refill. Cheers
Back in my day we regularly got 90 inches of snow a weekend and nobody complained. We thought it was a godsend for it ensured good spring flows for the trout which we caught with our bare hands.
Another convienient excuse....
At first they deny...and then they point fingers. Obama saw his shadow and went back to sleep for two more (at least) years of winter.
Time for another dose of Globull warming
I love the dumb bastards who think global "warming" is disproved by cold weather. It's a typical US reaction. "Duh, it's snowing, the world can't be getting warmer...,"
Actually, the world is not getting warmer.
Nah, it is just all the falsified data.
Hide the decline bish!
STFU ... idjit...
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/massive-tamperi...
Everything the gov touches is now manipulated or "adjusted" as the govt says, seasonally adjusted just means manipulated.
The problem isn't the warmness or coolness, it's the instability. Hot and cold air masses don't play well together, and unstable air and water currents bring them together more frequently. Either side can find an extreme that 'proves' their point, but they should be asking why we're seeing so many more extremes, and what does THAT mean?
It means those damn libruls and obamacare are destroyin 'merica. End the FEd!
I love the dumb bastards who believe any utterance from Al Gore, the Clintons, and Obama...it confirms another useful idiot acknowledging their brainwashing. Teaparty run re-education camps soon
You guys, both pro and anti this theory and that, have completely missed the point here. Which is that instability in our weather systems, regardless of the cause, is one of those few things that can really create an extinction-level event. We are DEPENDENT on what we grow. One lost growing season in the few critical regions because of funky-ass weather events will result in a global famine within weeks. No one has enough to tide their share of 7 billion people over until the next season. No one.
There IS no way to 'hedge' that risk. A population of 7 billion that loses a single growing season's worth of food falls into worldwide famine within weeks. 3rd world goes first of course, but it will be followed weeks later by us here in the developed world.
So, make fun of whatever the other side thinks, but remember the end result will be equally felt by you no matter WHAT the cause is. Instability in weather patterns doesn't just break stuff like waterfront property...it can mean NO HARVEST THAT YEAR if it hits the agricultural areas.
Wiener Mobile crashes in Pennsylvania due to icy roads, sustains bun damage.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/oscar-mayer-wienermobile-crashe...
"The Horror,-- the horror"!! - Kurtz
"Owwwweeee!" - Linda Lovelace
You can't make this shit up...
Weinermobile crashes - it's like a surreal dream.
'Course I went flying yesterday in my antique Piper Cub - it was 60 degrees at 3000 feet, air calm as smooth as a baby's butt, and visibility unlimited under clear blue sky (OK, high scattered cover at 15K plus). Just perfect to cruise around, check out the whales migrating, like that.
But we do have vicious forest fires and tremendous earthquakes and shit, so stay back east and enjoy your snow...
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/02/cia-concerned-about-foreign-powers-ma...
CIA concerned about foreign powers manipulating the weather, climatologist claimsU S Military Use Weather As A Weapon Worldwide: http://youtu.be/HNg7iO3db7k
Quit HAARPing on that!
The HFT computers work faster in cold weather .... what's the problem .... oh, cause and effect .... the algore factor ?
"The Last Time This Happened, US GDP Crashed By 5%"
And where were the equities? You know, the "most risk" class...
And out West here it is 64 in Reno and close to 80 in LA. Oh by the way. Not a big deal but CA and NV had the driest month in the history of the states in January and February is gearing up the same way. One day of rain so far. No snowpack in the Sierras and ski areas will be closing soon as they will be running out of water rights to produce snow. And when the low is 35 at Tahoe how the hell can you even make snow.
Worst drought in the 40+ years we have been here. But, it is only water. No big deal. Now THAT will have an influence on GDP. Check out the Central Valley guys. Starting to look like the 1930s. And hardly any stories or news about this killer drought on MSM. Anyone here surprised? Well drillers are 6 months out for a new well as many older ones are drying up.
And lets not even get started about Las Vegas and their reservoires.
This is not a drill folks. When will people pay attention?
Crops ain't gonna be there this year. Get long Ag commodities
Could you expound on the GDP effect?
Yup, Growers in CA. going to produce less, prices will go higher, and due to the drought many more will be unemployed. They will not have funds to spend on any of the crap from the Far East. Can't buy a new car, clothes or head out to Disney Land. Remember, we are almost 70% of this economy. CA. supplies almost 1/3 of the produce for the nation. There are over 36 million people in CA. and outside of the hot belts, SF south, Cupertino, San Diego and a few others that state is not doing so well. The west is a big part of GDP. If we do not have wages, we cannot spend. And in spite of what you might hear NV. is a disaster. We just continue to paint over the true landscape.
Not even talking about the debt, or longshoreman slowdowns.
Cali is in a different world. Every time I talk to my relatives out there all they can talk about is how much their house rose in price in the last month ... week ... etc. That's all they seem to think about.
Hey Loki, change relatives. I've never, in 40 years, heard any of my neighbors talk about the price of their house - and I sure don't give a shit about mine. It is a home, not a goddamned investment. I built it, have lived in it 40 years, and intend to die in it, as my wife of 43 years did last year.
Course, northern California is a different world than So Cal, and rural is a different world from urban...
When they run out of almonds.
and when wasn't California an arid desert?
The climate changing from winter-to-summer-back to winter is exactaly why we need to regulate carbon emissions. Climate change needs to stop and it starts with taxes. Taxes are for your benefit citizen.
WNC is now shut down and it's everyone for themselves. Farout.
They'll just change the definition of GDP like they always do.
Hookers and cocaine anybody?
"English as a second language" classes for all of those new 'immigrants'.
That should boost the economy!
Posting on blogs is considered part of GDP right...? And the multiplier is 2x if done from a parents basement....
Awesome! Bullish!
Bad GDP isn't really bad because of the harsh weather.
But bad GDP means the Fed will delay raising rates.
Meanwhile down under...
North Aus is about to get hit by 2 cyclones, which has the reverse effect.
What the hell are you guys doing wrong?
It's called the Broken Bollocks theory... in North Aus...
The dismal to come GDP number will be re-packaged, codified, explained, taped together, game planned and sold off in a CDO......Climate Destructive Obligation... :)
You think the East Coast has it bad? Here in So Cal we have a severe sunburn alert. SPF 30 minimum recommended
Where I live, four years ago we had a temperature delta of 131 degrees; from minus 117 degrees in February to 114 degrees in August. No one did a story on us. This winter hasn't been too bad. The daily earthquakes are a little annoying though.
Do they teach basic arithmetic where you live?
Do u lack common sense or are you trying to be funny again?
Come ON math freaks - an obvious typo: he meant minus 17 degrees, not 117.
-117? Really? And where do you live?
the moon...it is that man they always talk about
Maybe the US could ask to do a land swap with Mexico and some of the Central American countries just for the winter season
The Great Ice Sheet & Glacier is coming! Its 20 feet thick and won't melt until July when Global Warming returns...run for your lives! Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
.
And still there are those who deny global cooling is real -
Brutal winters come in pairs (sun-cycle related). Take heart, next year's will be mild.
They will print a -7% but revise it upwards the next quarter. Smoke and mIrrors, that's what the worlds economy is all about. The FED is behind the curve again and all they know how to do is print more money. And they will QE4 is on it's way.
Well - it will take the Central Planners until June to figure this shit out so don't worry - GDP is just fine.
Given the Futures reaction to Grecit, Ukaine eff the agreement and yet more beheadings, I intend to just BTFD at tomorrow's opening. Piss on it. I give up. You cannot go wrong - right? I mean the guy on CNBS after the close on Friday told me that SPY ETF is a GOOD purchase at these levels.
And my gawd anyway - it is effing winter! Only AlGore is surprised.
Please google "SEC investigates Nationstar mortgage"......you know, just to set the engine right...
Heard some folks from Nationstar Mortgage, LLC were telling all to SEC. Is this how rumors start?
New England is being punished by the Super Bowl gods, right? Why people live in shitty weather is a question.
If we get any more significant snowfall, I can assure that many businesses will have to shut down till spring. There is no place to put any more snow and the insurance claims for storm related damages will be in the tens of BILLIONS if not higher. a very significant number of homes and business establishments have roof and water damage, the associated flooding this spring (or if the weather gets unusually warm before that) will add to that total. Snow banks around homes and busineeses are above the windows so expect a lot of glass and wall related damages.
This shit show is far from over.
It's so bad that even the hookers went on strike and the crack houses won't open again till spring...
bwahahahaha, hookers and blow no mo'
Huge piles of melting snow will delay planting seasons in lot's of places. Can't plant in the mud. Can't work wet soil, you ruin it.
These winter storms and including the name are not by coincidence. This is all coordinated so as to create a ready made excuse for why the economy is tanking. It’s not the money printing policies of our glorious central bankers that is failing. It is simply the weather. And the price of food and meat isn’t rising because of money printing, but because of the severe drought. Again, not the central bankers’ fault.
However, what people don’t know is that the US Department of Defense has the ability to manipulate the weather. Specifically, they have the ability to move and manipulate the jet stream, as crazy as that sounds. Simply by strategically moving the jet stream down, the US DOD can enhance the strength of a storm. They also have other ways to accentuate the weather. They will have you believe that such “climate change” is the result of Americans selfishly driving their SUV’s but in actuality it is the “powers that be” who are changing the weather through their technologies.
Google HAARP and you will learn about this weather modification capability. HAARP is a secret facility and capability that is run by the US DOD. It can not only manipulate the weather and accentuate weather systems but can also be used for other apparently “natural” looking events.
Polar Vortexed some bitchezzz
It just might be that raising rates could actually spur the economy... as a fear tool: Grab those low rates while you can.
If the Fed does nothing, deflation fears will gain even greater traction and self-fulfilling prophecies would loom as a spectre.
The market is not tethered to the economy. If it is inflated, it will deflate even if the actual economy improves according to its place in the cycle.
The key to managing ups and downs is having a sense of relative stability. It might seem paradoxical, but a change by the Fed would create greater stability while keeping rates unchanged will give way to instability.
The Feds will give us a Snow Job and GDP will be up 7% seasonally adjusted. Unemployment claims will fall to 2%. We will all have a job and everyone will be rich. Have another snow line.
I already invested in grocery chains and breweries the first of the year. Dump them about May.
And the reason we have named storms is the insurance companies now can reference them to claims easier with a dumbed down work force.
Other than that, keep the fire burning and drink up!
Deep Space Climate Observatory successfully launched by SPACEX 11FEB15. Bitchez.
These winter storms and including the name are not by coincidence. This is all coordinated so as to create a ready made excuse for why the economy is tanking. It’s not the money printing policies of our glorious central bankers that is failing. It is simply the weather. And the price of food and meat isn’t rising because of money printing, but because of the severe drought. Again, not the central bankers’ fault.
However, what people don’t know is that the US Department of Defense has the ability to manipulate the weather. Specifically, they have the ability to move and manipulate the jet stream, as crazy as that sounds. Simply by strategically moving the jet stream down, the US DOD can enhance the strength of a storm. They also have other ways to accentuate the weather. They will have you believe that such “climate change” is the result of Americans selfishly driving their SUV’s but in actuality it is the “powers that be” who are changing the weather through their technologies.
Google HAARP and you will learn about this weather modification capability. HAARP is a secret facility and capability that is run by the US DOD. It can not only manipulate the weather and accentuate weather systems but can also be used for other apparently “natural” looking events.
this is all a contrived charade to mask the effects of massive money printing by our global central bankers...there is massive inflation in the pipeline that they will try to blame on the "weather" and other "natural causes"....
this is all a contrived charade to mask the effects of massive money printing by our global central bankers...there is massive inflation in the pipeline that they will try to blame on the "weather" and other "natural causes"....
Everyone bitches about the weather, until a freak storm wipes out 80% of your crops.
Then they shit their pants.
Seriously, do you realize that we are one harvest away from the kind of trouble that can make you forget your 401k's? Wipe out 20% with a late freeze in spring, then a few hailstorms during the growing season, and cap it off with an unexpected hard freeze before harvest...
All those huge centralized farms are all outdoors, and subject to the weather. If we're entering a period of instability (regardless of the reason!!) then we have serious problems.
but they aren't freak storms....they want you to believe they are freak storms...the US DOD has the abiliy to manipulate the weather...what better way to control the lives of a trillion people on this globe than to control the weather...but instead, you blame the weather on the actions of the people...(i.e., man made global warming)
One word...Carhart...it's that or freeze your dick off
Carhartt (two t's)
Pretty good, but the PVC is not the greatest in the woods, can get punctured or torn (broken off limbs), hard to patch to stay patched.
I've got a yellow rubberized jacket that is so old the label is gone, tough as hell, still waterproof - but not as warm as a Carhartt. Big deal - I wear another layer under if I need it. But in the woods where I live, rain and staying dry is a bigger consideration that staying warm. Shit, you work to stay warm...