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Is Japan Preparing For War?
Back on October 7, 1940, more than a year before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Lieutenant Commander Arthur H. McCollum in his capacity as director of the Office of Naval Intelligence's Far East Asia section, drafted what is now known as the "Eight Action Memo" (which can be read in its entirety here) to FDR in which he recommended an eight-part course of action for the United States to take in regard to the Japanese Empire in the South Pacific, suggesting the United States provoke Japan into committing an overt act of war.
Explicitly, in the memo McCollum said that "It is not believed that in the present state of political opinion the United States government is capable of declaring war against Japan without more ado." Which leaves one option: force Japan to declare war on the US: "If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better. At all events we must be fully prepared to accept the threat of War."
How would the US accelerate this plan to have Japan declare war on it? Simple: by collapsing the Japanese economy sufficiently, to where a crippled Japan would stand to lose little by declaring war on the US. Some of the specific steps planned in advance:
- Give all possible aid to the Chinese government of Chiang-Kai-Shek.
- Insist that the Dutch refuse to grant Japanese demands for undue economic concessions, particularly oil.
- Completely embargo all U.S. trade with Japan, in collaboration with a similar embargo imposed by the British Empire.
In other words, the plan was to "entrap" Japan to declare war on the US - a declaration which the US would have long anticipated - which would then allow America to engage Europe and Hitler as part of its broader entry into World War II from which it had been previously separated.
Sure enough, just over a year later, with its economy in shambles and having no real option than to attack the country that had put it in an untenable position, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and the rest is history.
The reason we bring it up is because Japan just approved a record 5 trillion yen defense budget: one which while paling by comparison to America's gargantuan defense spending, prompted Bloomberg to observe that "Japan gets ready to fight."
For decades, Japan was bound by its 1947 constitution to mobilize troops solely for self-defense. The country didn’t have the legal right to send armed troops abroad to protect its own people or back up allies who come under attack. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is determined to change this Cold War arrangement, which was imposed by the U.S. during its postwar occupation of Japan. Today the country faces a far more complex set of threats than the Soviet invasion that it feared 70 years ago. Islamic State has pledged more attacks to punish Japan’s decision to extend $200 million in humanitarian aid to countries battling the extremists who hold sway over large sections of Syria and Iraq.
Abe, a defense hawk and the scion of a prominent political family, has embarked on an overhaul of national security strategy. In an historic step, his cabinet last year approved the exports of military equipment and conducted a legal review that concluded Japan had the right to deploy its military power abroad to protect its citizens and back up allies under attack. In addition, the cabinet favored loosening limits on when Japan’s Self-Defense Forces could use deadly force during United Nations peacekeeping operations and international incidents near Japan that fall short of full-scale war.
To be sure, Japan is not contemplating becoming a second US, and allowing "moderate Syria rebels" direct air support. However, with the boosted defensive (and offensive) capabilities Japan just may believe it has enough leverage to take on someone, anyone, if it so chooses:
Abe isn’t contemplating Japanese boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria or joint offensive operations with the U.S. anywhere else. He calls his initiatives “proactive contributions to peace.” The Japanese public remains wary of foreign entanglements and rescue missions abroad. The same goes for the Komeito Party, the Liberal Democratic Party’s partner in the coalition. Abe faces a heated debate in the Diet to get approval to provide rearguard support to the U.S. This is, after all, the country that last year celebrated the successful effort by a Japanese housewife to have Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which renounces war, nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Bloomberg lays out some of the key budgeted expenditures:
Japan’s economic and fiscal woes, which Abe is trying to address, will make it difficult to significantly upgrade the country’s military. In January the cabinet approved a record 4.98 trillion-yen ($41 billion) defense budget that includes funding to purchase Northrop Grumman Global Hawk drones and F-35A fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. Even so, that’s less than a tenth of what the U.S. spends annually and less than half of China’s defense tab.
Then again Japan does not need to match the US in capabilities. All it needs is to boost its self-confidence enough to where the next time a Chinese cruiser crosses into what Japan believes is its maritime territory, it will think just once, not twice, before unleashing a torpedo at the offender.
Bloomberg's conclusion: "If Abe’s national security makeover succeeds, Japan’s evolution into a “normal state,” as LDP strategists say, will get a big boost."
Of course, "normal" is being generous: as those who follow Japan's economic collapse are well-aware, between Abenomics and its demographic implosion, Japan is now the first officially failed "Keynesian" state. And sadly, it is the fact that Japan's economic situation is now as bad if not worse compared to where it was in 1940 that makes it the biggest threat: because as Greece is demonstrating currently, it is not until "you have lost everything, that you are free to do anything."
Japan has almost lost everything. It still has its precious Nikkei but that is one major central bank debacle away from total implosion. And then what?
Which brings us to our original question: is Japan actively preparing for war... or, just like in 1940s, is the stage being set by "someone" to "force" Japan to declare war on "someone", once the next and final pillar from underneath its economic house of cards - a house of cards that has only gotten worse when Japan followed the US fed into terminal currency devaluation courtesy of the BOJ's money printer - is finally pulled?
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Rape of Nanking much? Old animosities die hard...
I f@$&in love you guys!!!!
Old animosities die hard...
I'd say the US did as much damage in Vietnam as Japan did in China. I don't see or hear any Vietnamese spewing hatred at Americans at all.
Fuck China! and their brainwashed sheep
We're hit no matter what.
The Japanese are linking robots with Watson. Within five years Japanese robots will design themselves then replicate themselves with 3D printers. Long after the Japanese people are dead, their robots will keep coming.
Watson AI power still leaves robots short of practical skills
SoftBank, the Japanese mobile carrier is trying to boost its talking hosuehold robot Pepper by linking it to Watson, IBM's artificial intelligence platform
http://www.techworld.com/news/personal-tech/even-with-watson-brains-robo...
japan is defending itself against china and the usa. in another generation the usa will be gone from the pacific and the region will return to the old ways where china is where all the money comes from but never trust the chinese because they will take over the economy of your country if you become too dependent upon them, chinese style colonization.
it is funny to hear americans thinking japan is just a tool of the usa, an eastern bastion of western oligopoly economics and politics. even though it may certainly apper that way japan is hardly a usa tool. japan will do what is best for japan. after the perry visit japan armed itself(and has never been invaded) and tried to create a western style empire. when they were defeated japan hitched its horse to the usa wagon. now that the usa is defeated japan will not go down with the usa ship.
the guys running japan now were students demonstrating in the streets by the hundreds of thousands against the 1970 usa/japan security pact. their voice is now the policy of the japanese .gov. japan is not nearly dependent upon the usa economy as it was in the 80s. japan is hugely dependent upon china and the rest of asia. if you think japan is going to oppose the sentiment turning to the china/russia/maybe europe axis just to be friends with the usa, that is absurd.
Hope springs eternal, I suppose. However, I give you Hatoyama and Ozawa as evidence that the Japan hands in DC and the American hands in Kasumigaseki are still running the show. The Henoko base, the US-demanded changes in the constitution, the nuclear power cover-up - among others - are all examples of this.
Kan (after Hatoyama and Ozawa were run out of office) stated that the Japanese/US alliance was the basis of Japanese foreign policy in East Asia. I see nothing to suggest that this has changed.
i think the ideas of hatoyama and ozawa still dominate the unspoken sentiment. japan still has to play the western game for leverage against china. the ultimate catch for china is to have the yen and yuan anchor asian trade. japan is the key to chinese asian dominance. the japanese know it. it is a big bargaining chip.
I agree with the unspoken sentiment. But, like the Okinawans who obviously do not want the Henoko base (or any large US troop deployment for that matter), public sentiment is ignored in order to accommodate the Americans.
I would not put it past the US to create a false flag around the Senkaku Islands if Japan even hints at a more equal alliance with both the US and the Chinese.
Yeah, Japan's economic situation is worse than in the 40's... when people couldn't even consume the amount of proteins required... I won't say Japan's all rosy dosy, but to compare it to "ningen shikkaku" era, is well, too much. I never really considered ZH to be a fearmongerer, but nowadays I'd think it more as a bullshit mongerer... in chief.
The whole world is preparing for war. Just like the Cold War. Just like World War 2. Just like World War 1. Very few people actually want a war, but nobody wants to be the one country that isn't prepared for one.
I just like to look at manufacturing.
Remember in the early 1970's everyone laughed at the crap Japan made? Now they make some really nice stuff. Some of their high tech stuf is second to none (machine tools etc)
Remember in the early 1990's when everyone laughed at the crap that S. Korea made? Now they make some really nice stuff.
So when will China make some really nice stuff and stop peddling crap?
We make bombs. whooopeeeeeeee.
We make REALLY NICE bombs, that can glide several miles and hit with incredible accuracy.
Seems like the US is using the same strategy and trying to provoke Russia into doing another Pearl Harbor.
If you wage a monetary war then be prepared for the military consequence.
Stupidest article I ever read. Japan need not have war with USA. All they have to do is to kick out USA bases and join forces with China (what China REALLY wants but Japan refused) and that would be that. As it is USA is asinking ship and all the world knows it. No wonder South Korea is slowly moving ot the side of China, despite all those "joint military dirlls" and such. A matter of time.
Yes, South Korea is moving towards china...something that attracts no attention in the Western media. SK has a free trade agreement & a forex swap treaty with china, actions that are usually reserved among the most trusted allies.
china wants to break the US-Japan military alliance so it can control the Western Pacific & establish a modern-day version of the Asian Co-prosperity Sphere. Also, china has a life-long ambition of invading Hawaii, making territorial claims against it....though it's completely baseless.
If so, they had better start melting down a boatload of elevated subway girders.
What Japan needs this time around is the rape of Beijing or Shanghai on behalf of Wall Street. It's reported many Japanese companies have been closing their shops in China and moving operations back to Japan.
Rational people must admit the world was a better place when Japan dominated the Far East.
really? why?
would you like to expand on this BS?
it's not a big deal, they are buying more patrol aircraft and a couple fighters.
They are worried about China and some rock like islands.
It's pretty silly, japan has an aging military arsenal this is a minor update.
Now given Japan's demographic crisis, they have much worse troubles
"...is Japan actively preparing for war... or, just like in 1940s, is the stage being set by "someone" to "force" Japan to declare war on "someone","
The first "someone" is the USG, which is intricately - but covertly - involved in Japan's re-arming programme. The second "someone" is of course China, who are the ultimate challenge for the USG if it is to remain as the uni-polar superpower.
Russia, China, BRICS and quite a few other countries strongly favour a multi-polar world order. But that implies the USD losing its dominant role as GRC and the USD used for commodity pricing/trading, which Washington is unwilling to accept because it's accustomed to living off the backs of the rest of the world.
This USG objective was all set-out by a Neo-Con dual passport holder 12+ years ago in a long interview with the BBC. At that time he referred to "a face-off with China by 2020-5 because after that China would become too powerful".
If Japan buys F-35s it clearly has no intention of going to war simply flying air displays. Your memo forgot USS Panay when the United States blinked in 1937
first off, the F35 doesn't fly. not much of an intelligent decision here. just filling the coffers of the MIC.
the funding for maternity dress uniforms is quite significant.
and 30 amphibious vehicles won't do much to move japan's population from its radioactive shores.
i can see that CN would really be worried at this point.
rearguard support? Abe should just put his head up his posterior.
what is the point of this article?
"Proactive contributions to peace"... a two handed sword like crossing the Rubicon to "save" Rome from the corruption of the Republic !
When Mercator goes belly up in "print to infinity logic" there ONLY ls left DOMINUS and sabre rattling to set the ship of state on its inevitable course.
Dominus et Mercator...twins pillars of any empire.
japan is preparing for godzilla you silly goose
God-zee-ra
Japan is worried, as it should be, that is pacifist constitution hamstrings it while it is surrounded by hostile countries, including one that is supposed to be an ally (South Korea). China is trying to steal the Senkaku Islands, having seen the success by which South Korea lifted the disputed Takeshima/Dokdo and Japan'es efforts at "negotiating" a return of even some of the Northern Territories (Southern Kurils) have yielded nothing. The Americans are saying the right things about Japan's sovereignty in the Senkakus and that is good, but the Japanese are not sure whether Uncle Sam would ride to the rescue in the event of a Chinese invasion of the Senkakus. China has already tried to cast doubt over Japanese sovereignty in Okinawa, which means China wants the Ryukyu chain for itself. Japan needs to look to its own defenses.