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Ukraine "Truce" Fails: Withdrawal Deadline Passes, Debaltseve Situation Deteriorating
UPDATE: *POROSHENKO SAYS UN MUST NOT ALLOW FULL-SCALE WAR IN EUROPE
As the game of chicken between Greece and the Eurogroup hots up, it appears another - potentially far more deadly - is escalating in Ukraine as neither side is willing to follow through on the terms of the Minsk Summit peace deal - removing heavy weaponry from the frontlines - as a key deadline passes without agreement. As The Guardian reports, The Ukrainian military have stated that "as soon as the militants cease fire, the Ukrainian side will begin to withdraw heavy weaponry from the frontline," and the pro-Russian separatists proclaim, "We do not have the right [to stop fighting for Debaltseve]," adding that as far as the truce, "we have everything ready for a mutual withdrawal. We will not do anything unilaterally – that would make our soldiers targets."
As The Guardian reports, and Interfax confirms, the situation in Debaltseve is deteriorating...
Kiev on Tuesday reported artillery strikes overnight around the key transportation hub of Debaltseve while the situation in the rest of the conflict zone appeared to be calm.
An Associated Press reporter heard sustained shelling around Debaltseve – where government troops are encircled – on Tuesday morning, some coming from Grad rocket launchers.
A senior rebel representative told Reuters that the separatists cannot “morally” stop fighting for control of the town.
Denis Pushilin also said rebels could not withdraw heavy weaponry, as set out in the deal, unless Ukrainian forces did so as well.
“We do not have the right [to stop fighting for Debaltseve]. It’s even a moral thing. It’s internal territory,” Pushilin said in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
“We have to respond to fire, to work on destroying the enemy’s fighting positions.”
Asked about plans to carry out the agreement to withdraw big guns, he said: “We are ready at any time, we have everything ready for a mutual withdrawal. We will not do anything unilaterally – that would make our soldiers targets.”
As AP reports, Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine claimed Tuesday to have taken the key transportation hub of Debaltseve as both parties faced a deadline to start pulling back heavy weapons from the front line.
Fierce fighting on Tuesday appeared to be focused on Debaltseve, a government-held town surrounded by rebel forces that both sides claim to be on their side of the cease-fire line. The issue was not resolved under a cease-fire agreement negotiated last week by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France.
Separatist leaders said in remarks carried by the rebel mouthpiece Donetsk News Agency on Tuesday afternoon that their forces have pushed the Ukrainian army out of Debaltseve, gaining control over most of the town.
...
Rupert Colville, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, told a briefing in Geneva on Tuesday that the UN is "alarmed" by reports of continued shelling in the areas and have not yet been able to get reliable information on the casualties there and the wellbeing of civilians.
"It is unclear how many civilians are still there," he said. "We are particularly concerned about the civilians trapped in the area - we believe there may be a few thousand hiding in cellars, struggling to get food, water and other basic necessities."
RT @loogunda: Gas pipe line damaged in #Svitlodarsk area @HromadskeTV pic.twitter.com/brGskT7BfN http://t.co/ALOgSZz6Q0
— Muschelschloss ? ? (@Muschelschloss) February 17, 2015
mashable: Russia-backed rebels claim to capture key rail hub in Ukraine. http://t.co/ivevmbr0Of pic.twitter.com/OTjb8lwAqu
— Jerem Owen (@Shop_OwnerMark) February 17, 2015
Report: Soldiers near Debaltseve ask for help, say they could all be killed http://t.co/QYB7mp82YT pic.twitter.com/34TzXL6mSh
— UNIAN.info (@UnianInfo) February 17, 2015
- *DONETSK REBELS SAY HUNDREDS OF GOVT SOLDIERS SURRENDERED: IFX
- *POROSHENKO TOLD MERKEL EU MUST RESPOND TO REBEL, RUSSIA ACTIONS
As the following AP clip shows, there are no signs of Ukraine weapons withdrawal at all...
As The Guardian reports, neither side is willing to move first...
Ukrainian government troops and Russia-backed rebels failed to start pulling back heavy weaponry from the frontline in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday as a deadline to do so passed.
Under a ceasefire agreement negotiated by the leaders of Ukrae, Russia, Germany and France last week, the warring sides were to begin withdrawing heavy weapons from the front line on Tuesday.
Anatoliy Stelmakh, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said in televised comments early on Tuesday that the separatists continued to attack their positions overnight and that the pullout hinged on the ceasefire being fully observed.
“As soon as the militants cease fire, the Ukrainian side will begin to withdraw heavy weaponry from the frontline,” he said.
* * *
So despite the market's kneejerk exuberance last week, it seems the Minsk Summit peace deal is about as effective as the last peace deal... time for more sanctions and costs...
- *POROSHENKO CALLS FOR `TOUGH' EU REACTION TO DEBALTSEVE ATTACKS
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Hots up?
Voice recognition is great for texting your buddies, but not for writing articles appearing on ZH.
Debaltseve will be taken shortly as it is now controlled 80% by Novorussian forces and the balance of the cauldron is being tightened to the south.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoF_bb9-D9A&index=2&list=PLY96rNvqGJm8mQ...
It wasn't part of the Minsk 2 agreement even though it was brought up by DPR PM, Porky didn't want to admit it was a "cauldron", so the AFU troops were left on their own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu22mdFATAM&list=PLY96rNvqGJm8mQpqRJxXRD...
and some straight talk from DPR PM Zakharchenko to UAF captives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpJYzfxigs8
Where is Ivan alotofcrap or whatever his name was?
He could set us straight on all this bull.
"Let's declare a cease fire, and pull back our heavy weaponry."
"Good idea. You first."
"No, you first."
"No, you first."
"No, you first."
"No, you first."
"How about we do it together? On three."
"One, two, three. Hey you didn't move anything."
"Neither did you."
"But neither did you."
"But neither did you."
"But neither did you."
"But neither did you."
etc...
When I grow up I want to be a " A senior rebel representative"
These are the guys- in 30 seconds.
Bernanke greenspan Blankfein Mozillo Vaniar Mack Fuld Cuomo Achtenberg Raines Thain Corzine Paulson The Sandlers Barney fag
Porky wants a ceasfire when he's getting his ass kicked.
da can detect a pattern there...
A fun duh moment is when you think that the US wanted to remove Assad because homeboy was killing his own people...and yet Ogolfo is thinking of giving weapons to the "folks" in Kiev so they can...kill their own people. Curious to hear Psake stumble through that one.
Fear, misery, smell of guts in the air, pain, blood and severed limbs. War is ugly and one must feel sorry for all the poor bastards from both sides suffering and dying as I write. At least, Bad Old Vlad is seemingly trying to stop it. From the perspective of the ones sunk in mud, ice and shit (nazis excepted) he has the right perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URkTUedkhYE
So will Russia let Ukraine join NATO after they take Crimea and Southeast Ukraine?
.
Or will Russia continue to protect the "Federal" system of government from the Ukranian capitol Kiev.
.
45.5 MILLION "European" peoples future, governments and associations "EU and national territory", as well as economic modeling financial agreements and everything "GDP bitchez" that goes with it.
.
Depends on Russia
It's not up to Russia. She does not even have to take SE Ukraine. Even if they were willing to overlook Crimea, the other members of NATO will black-ball Ukraine because of the rebellion in Donetsk and Luhansk. Nobody wants to admit a new member that will immediately get them hip-deep into a shooting SNAFU. Check out what happened to Georgia: she was refused membership because of her "frozen conflicts" with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
If Russia wants to keep Crimea as a strategic military base, she does have to take SE Ukraine, or Crimea is logistically unsupportable.
This is very likely a death-knell to NATO.
The US is financially over-extended.
Europe doesn't need NATO to militarize on its own. It can do so, and will do so. This is not something new, but something old.
Putin's postion is not as good as the Propagandists claim. While he and China are playing nice-nice now, these things are temporary by nature. By chosing conflict to his West he is effectively immobilizing his East. Good will with China will work...for a while.
But it is not in human nature to see large desireable and accessible fruits without attempting to get them. When Russia is sufficiently militarily committed to the West, China will move in the East. Maybe it will move by military means. Maybe it will be sly, and simply coordinate for the lowering of immigration restrictions so as to insure the viability of the Russian energy agreements. Either way, the Russian Far East is currently falling apart...now and not later. Later the Russian Far East will simply cease to be Russia's. The timing will depend on how impatient China is. If they go the immigration route... then it will take decades. Otherwise it would happen overnight.
HINT TO RUSSIA: The Chinese Army build-up of the last dozen or so years is not aimed at the US (despite what the chinese say). You can argue that their NAVAL build-up is for the US. But that Chinese Army is aimed at YOU RUSSIA.
Germany made the same error leading into WWII. After committing himself to war in the West, Hitler realized that Stalin's "defensive" westward troop deployments could not be defensive. What happened next was inevitable. Arguably Hitler delayed Stalin with his invasion ... structured as a massive 'spoiling attack'.
Europe is going to re-arm sooner or later. The only question is where the US willl be relative to Europe in that re-arming. They don't look able to resume the leadership role. If they stay as first among equals, then European re-armament will be under the NATO banner. If not then it will be under the EU banner, or as individual nations. In any of the three scenario's US influence in Europe is set to decline, relatively.
In any of the three scenarios Russia's situation will be vastly more dangerous than it was in WWII. After all, in WWII Russia faced only Germany. Choosing the path of conflict with the West now means fighting Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Spain...just for starters.
It is an impossible war to win using conventional means. Using non-conventional means - nukes - Europe, Russia, AND the US will fall to the 3d world. Using asymmetrical means will lead to Russia and Europe falling to the 3d world slightly slower - in decades rather than years. The Russian public often forgets that Russia and the US are not the only ones with nukes.
No one here is playing Chess. Both East and West are playing the parts of mobsters in 'The Godfather'. The only thing certain given the setup is that none of the incumbents win. The winner will be an outsider to this business, and end up living in "Lake Tahoe" rather than in New York, or Chicago... or in this case Washington DC, Moscow, Brussels, Berlin, Paris, Rome, or London.
Nothings changed, Market rallies on last weeks new. Fucked up.
The West does not understand that the problem is not with Putin, he is there in a moment when Russia finds itself threatened by NATO expansion towards its borders. For that reason the Russians are ready to make sacrifices which are viewed as necessary in the given context. The is something the West will never understand.
there is just one question: will Novorossia, after DebalcevOOOOOOOO and not EEEEEEEEEE, be tomorrow mopped up, will they turn to Charkov, or to Mariupol?
both of them are on their agenda, the question is, whether they start in the north, or in the south.
What does it mean deteriorating?
Since 3 hours it is in the hands of Novorossians.
The news is, that in Cernuchino the fascists give up and chose to be POWS, then dead.
http://rusvesna.su/news/1424205407
Video: Soldiers from the APU Debaltsevskogo boiler surrendering
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV4WYWpuNWw
Published on Feb 17, 2015 (12:35 min)
One of the units Ukrainian army surrendered under Debaltsevo. The soldiers received from their commanders no ammunition, no food, no medication. Received only an order - fight!
If I understand the terms of the truce correctly, the surrounded Ukrainian soldiers must leave all weapons in Debaltseve and go home.
If they try to escape by using tanks and artillery, it's not according to the signed plan.
Is being reported on UK news that it has fallen to the rebels, and possibly Mariupol as well but the situation there is confusing and they can't confirm.
Military stability in Europe requires that countries not carve off portions of their neighbors - whatever the justifications - using military means.
Using Armies to do this results in growing military budgets and increased militarism across the continent. Countries who become paranoid in this manner NEVER restrain their use of military power to the purely defensive.
This general assertion applies to France, Germany, Britain, the US, and all the rest...including Russia. As a historical matter of fact it is totally undebateable, and simply leaps off the page of any chapter of history for thousands of years.
At the same time Russia believes its existential security is tied with direct political control of Crimea. The Russian position in Crimea is militarily unsustainable unless the land logistical routes to Crimea are in hands friendly to Russia. If Russia cannot sustain bases in Crimea, then this year or some other year they will lose Crimea...and they know it.
This is a head-on collision of absolutes. East and West can debate for eternity on who did what to whom for what purposes and it will not change the eventual destination one whit.
Down one road Russia capitulates now in Ukraine - including Crimea, whatever its Russian population - and the continent will later have war with Russia on a date Russia chooses.
Down the other road Russia keeps Crimea, and the portions of Ukraine needed to supply it, Europe re-arms, and Europe still has war with Russia...on terms a re-militarized Europe chooses.
Meanwhile the moors are knocking on the gates of Europe, and Russia. And the birthrates in both places are too low to lose a generation to warfare and still sustain a caucasion majority population.
So basically, Europe - both the West and East sides of it - have put themselves in checkmate. This historical recipe is not a new one, and has predictable results. The Chinese and Mongols will increasingly move West, de-Russifying Asia. The Islamists move into the PIIGS, and South-Eastern Europe. The rest of the continent becomes depopulated through series' of wars to 'defend the frontier'.
History is a cyclical, more resembling a wheel than an exclamation point.
With NATO, US & EU on one side, and Russia on the other in Ukraine...
... WHO WINS?
ANSWER:
China, or ISIS most likely.
Yet another monumental failure for the junta
All my sources confirm that Debaltsevo is mostly in Novorussian hands and that the junta forces are in full retreat to the south of the pocket. All the top Novorussian brass was on hand today, including Kononov, Motorola, Givi, Mozgovoi and Zakharchenko as were many tens of Ukrainian prisoners.
It appears that the junta forces were unable to provide the kind of resistance they showed in Peski, and that make sense because in Peski they were not surrounded and they had the fire support of Ukrainian forces just north and west of them. This time the cauldron is too deep and the "lid" too strong. See for yourself
The very lovely and talented pianist Valentina Lisitsa is an excellent source of the latest Ukrainian info on twitter. With CD's to sell and bookings to take worldwide she is surprisingly candid against the warmongering west!