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Damped Harmonic Oscillator Algo Asks: What Happens Next In Oil?

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Wed, 02/18/2015 - 11:57 | 5798874 Larrioto
Larrioto's picture

Goes back to 100 for a millisecond ?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:00 | 5798889 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

If it goes to 100 for a millisecond, I'd sell all my calls that I just bought and make a fortune!  Man I love this free market thingy!!

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:02 | 5798906 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Downward entry = Downward exit.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:13 | 5798974 Man Who Was Thursday
Man Who Was Thursday's picture

I wonder if one of the Tylers has a background on Physics/Simulations.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:18 | 5799004 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Where's Wiley Coyote?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:28 | 5799062 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Fueling his rocket.  Waiting for the Launch count down.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:20 | 5799023 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

One seems to be on the Left Coast if you notice the PST time stamps.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:48 | 5799200 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

No meaningful recovery without capitulation, which bulls are preventing by trying to pick bottom. This will lead to crisis due to supplies reaching limits. We wouldn't have gone to $10 oil, but because of bulls preventing capitulation, we will.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:23 | 5799040 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

based on what I have seen and what my IT/programmer guy tells me you can in fact "simulate" just about anything.  Whether or not your model will have any bearing or semblance of reality is something else altogether.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:15 | 5798983 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Good guess. I'll remember that. It sure provided an opportunity for the gold/yen trade to work again.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:25 | 5799050 zeropain
zeropain's picture

or is this more indicative of shorts taking profit and then consolidating... remember the industry hedged instead of changing their production.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:14 | 5798977 zeropain
zeropain's picture

ha ha, that was a quick algo test to go down instead....

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:19 | 5799015 Boubou
Boubou's picture

Nah, they don't do long term positions.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 14:27 | 5799677 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

It is just the regular trading anomolies of an asymmetrical triangle. Any day trader has seen them many times.

The market creates a stronger shelf so to say voiding of liquidity vacuums.

What does it do next??? It can stay there or continue the trend or reverse.  The traders sit and see head fakes and traps til it makes the commitment.

I'm ot sure if algos can really form the triangle, only all the scalpers and those scalp market maker algos.  During the triangle there seems to be little spoofing in the trade dom as heavy hands lay in wait.

It is a period of low volitility. It is interesting to see this in the markets but a bitch to trade it.   Chopped up in hundred of pieces.

If I had an algo, I would take it out of the triangle as a to trap traders to the wrong side, then hammer the shit out of them. Why have an algo narrow in range?  Also if the POC point of control is at the apex of triangle, price likes it there and builds up a high value area. Still a low value area for a trader.

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 15:31 | 5800210 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

A few months someone here said if oil drops below 54 bucks it would fall into the 40's. I don't care much for long look backs, but must of been a major support line several years ago? Anywho, strong support once broken becomes strong resistence. Oil has popped 54 three times now and having a tuff time breaking thru.  If it breaks it, my next target would be $55.50.  The daily is pointing upward, but gotta get past that 54.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 11:59 | 5798886 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

What happens next? A moonshot to 60.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:00 | 5798895 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

OH MEIN GOTT!

The feared pterodactyl formation!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:01 | 5798898 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Glitches and self helpies.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:04 | 5798901 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Damp harmonicas .... need to be oiled .... Jeesh .... this is kind of basic .... duh ? The little metal reeds .... have to oscillate .... to make music !

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:02 | 5798904 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

If those fuckers can get the stock market numbers that high... can't they just Manipulate oil WAAAYYY Higher if thats what they want?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:04 | 5798918 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

it has been manipulated. LOWER. Because that's what they want

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:08 | 5798941 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

first it was manipulated higher from 32 in 2009 to 110.  i think the drop from $95 to $43 in 2014 was the end of the manipulation higher.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:03 | 5798912 css1971
css1971's picture

Is it a damped harmonic oscillator or are they just selling a reducing volume of stock above a lower limit?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:09 | 5798949 honkadoo
honkadoo's picture

Darn, the world didn't blow up today. Better luck tomororw ZHers.  Mommy is there to take care of you until then.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:10 | 5798959 Aloysius Snuffl...
Aloysius Snuffleupagus's picture

Rounded top rally (convex, or a frown) = down. Rounded bottom pullback (concave, or a smile) = up. And so it goes.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:11 | 5798966 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

In chart-porn terms, looks like we're down to the short strokes.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:17 | 5799000 Aloysius Snuffl...
Aloysius Snuffleupagus's picture

It's been pattern-driven pretty much since the first days of the rally off 44. The push-pull over the last 24 hours is whether we're going to break above the 55 day MA.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:14 | 5798976 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

Final shakeout before the breakout. These moves are nothing but a money grab.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:14 | 5798981 Bill of Rights
Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:16 | 5798991 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

Ugly!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:18 | 5798986 antiximik_RU
antiximik_RU's picture

Dear algo, please, could you kindly make it to be ANHARMONIC!!!

Just 4lulz.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:18 | 5799001 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Next we have a soundbite from Saudi, they foresee $20 oil!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:23 | 5799038 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Well looks down a dollar plus for the moment and untill Assad is gone it will stay down. You will see 100 oil the day affter Syria is under American rule

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:24 | 5799043 ANestIOS
ANestIOS's picture

is like watching clouds

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:56 | 5799245 atomp
atomp's picture

Where Boris!?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:28 | 5799065 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

See you later oscillator.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:31 | 5799073 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

We're all fluctuated.

vs

We fluctuated some folks.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:37 | 5799115 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

Fluctuation caused me to exist

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:35 | 5799108 SandiaMan
SandiaMan's picture

Any supertankers backed up waiting to be unloaded?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:37 | 5799117 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Damped Harmonic Oscillator Algo Asks: What Happens Next In Oil?

 

I'm guessing less harmony and more acid rock.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:39 | 5799137 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'What happens next'......they manipulate price either up or down?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 13:05 | 5799310 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I think it's more of a kind of algo-created spastic bouncing back and forth thing. Like the girl in the middle of the two "Baby Don't Hurt Me" guys on SNL...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:40 | 5799144 discopimp
discopimp's picture

Can someone please explain what the hell this means?

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:45 | 5799187 Aloysius Snuffl...
Aloysius Snuffleupagus's picture

Stay the hell away from trading /CL unless you are very nimble.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 12:59 | 5799269 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture
What Happens Next?

A war?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 13:06 | 5799320 cigarEngineer
cigarEngineer's picture

bearish flag pattern, right?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 13:32 | 5799461 delacroix
delacroix's picture

regular gasoline has gone up 43 cents per gallon in the last 2 weeks. socal

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 15:17 | 5800088 I Drink Your Mi...
I Drink Your Milkshake's picture

Might partially be something to do with the tankers in San Pedro sitting at berths w/o someone to pump them dry. Not to mention the 3 offshore doing donuts.

Oh, and that refinery blast this AM might add a few cents to a gallon when you hit the Exxon station tomorrow.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 13:55 | 5799601 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Seriously?  A 1 minute chart?  So maybe oil brekas higher and does so by like ... drumroll... a dollar?  Or breaks down and does the same?  So what after dozens of dollars of moves.  I mean it is a pretty thing technically, but at 1 minute resolution not very important.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 14:29 | 5799775 Itgoestoeleven
Itgoestoeleven's picture

tends toward a steady state

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:39 | 5800534 Rusputin
Rusputin's picture

Oil has to be heading for the car park... Going down!

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