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Housing Recovery? Weekly Mortgage Purchase Apps Drop Again, Down 66% From 2004

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Anthony Saunders via Confounded Interest blog,

The housing and mortgage evangelists on CNBC and Fox Business are going to have to rewrite their “2015 is going to be a big year for housing!”  meme. Nirvana it isn’t.

 

Mortgage applications decreased 13.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 13, 2015.

mbastat021815

The NON seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier and are at the same level as one year ago.

mbapnsa021815

 

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. And mortgage purchase applications are down 66 percent since October 2004.

mbapsa021815

 

The Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week thanks to an increase in the 30 year mortgage rate,

mbarefi021815

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 3.93 percent from 3.84 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Sadly, the housing and mortgage Nirvana meme is sounding more and more like the late Kurt Cobain mortgage market.

 

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Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:43 | 5800542 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

So bullish it hurts!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:45 | 5800551 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Definately doesn't smell like teen spirit to me

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:08 | 5800894 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I think Dafanately has three "a"s

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:37 | 5801008 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

How many "a"s in asshole?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:23 | 5801205 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

RESULTS:

 

 

Official Govt Count: None

Shadow stats Count:1

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:20 | 5801199 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

smells like a burning pile of dung

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:46 | 5800554 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

need to sell moar homes to minorities with 0 down

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:06 | 5800611 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Do starts on mobile homes count?

The cost of living is falling as we are moving from three bedroom houses to "like" three bedroom mobile homes, and from there to "like" cardboard boxes.

"Chained" deflation

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:44 | 5800547 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Everything is awesome!  Just look at purchase applications for the last two months!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:15 | 5800658 greyghost
greyghost's picture

WTF....this clown is comparing current data to 2004? haven't we had the second great depression in between then and  now? this guy is rich talking about manipulation of data.  is there a college course on bullshit

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:41 | 5800763 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

is there a college course on bullshit

yes, humanities.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:46 | 5801062 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Which is the pre-req for HR...

Another mystery solved.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:46 | 5800792 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Only in ANYTHING related to FIRE (Finance, Insurance & Real Estate). Something BKBroiler must have majored in...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:44 | 5800549 kowalli
kowalli's picture

it is a market.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:53 | 5800563 Iceobar
Iceobar's picture

Personally, I agree that “2015 is going to be a big year for housing!”  ....we're just quibbling about direction....

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:31 | 5800992 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

"Big Year?"

 

What, are you kidding me ?!

My realtor says, "there's never been a BETTER year then now to buy an overpriced house."

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:53 | 5800564 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

who cares...

Angie's List hit an all time hight today!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:08 | 5800621 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

It costs $30/month or some such nonsense, and has a new hard charging competitor doing the same thing for free.

Screaming short, if there were such a thing as a short anymore.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:42 | 5801039 JoeSoMD
JoeSoMD's picture

No... much much less... the most recent offer I got was $6 per month.  It keeps going down.

 

For full disclosure... I joined for a short time to post a review of a contractor that did a great job for me... he's trying to build his business and asked me to post.  I think I paid around 12 to 15 a month initially, but I am not certain.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:55 | 5800569 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

One of the CNBC yaps tried blaming it on the slight uptick in mortgage rates.  They have a shade of lipstick for everything.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:00 | 5800582 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Green shoots.   Green shoots everywhere.  Since 2009.  

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:02 | 5800590 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Biden the Perv has green shoots in his pants

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:06 | 5800614 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Doesn't that occur in late stage syphilis?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:05 | 5800605 farmboy
farmboy's picture

Wait until the negative interest rate mortgage arrives in the US. That will solve it all.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:00 | 5800865 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

With wage inflation running at -4%, bullish.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:05 | 5800606 centerline
centerline's picture

Lots of foreign cash buying properties outright.  Regular folks taking out mortgages... not so much.  Priced out again thanks to bubblenomics.  Now the rental market is getting tight and landlords are turning up the heat.

 

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:12 | 5800642 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Those landlords are burning themselves.  People getting reemed on rent don't tend to take good care of properties.  And with evrybody doubling up with roomates aqnd dealing with economic pressures the rentier class might wanna take it easy.  Either way Housing b=Bust 2.0 has already began.  Not enough hot money in the world to buy and hold properties at these cap rates.

REITS and specuvestors will get the brutal raping they deserve over the next year or 2.   All the better for people who just want a house to live in,

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:35 | 5800733 centerline
centerline's picture

From what I have been seeing over the last handful of years you are spot on.  I have seen quite a few houses in my area wind up rented to a whole host of people all banding together to afford rent.  They usually wind up trashing the places.  Roommates coming and going.  Landlords out of state or perhaps out of country. 

Hot money pouring in is in most cases just frying pan to fire.  Just a matter of time. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:49 | 5800814 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

We can only hope much of the desctruction came to the houses that were purchased as a result of the Fed offerings to Hedge Funds and the like...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:35 | 5801002 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

I had my turn at being a landlord. After $18G's in damage [on a $186k house] and a court fight, I was finally able to evict the perp. I still watch behing my back after his death threats.

 

Noooooo thanks ... never again be a Landlord imho.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:08 | 5800623 Ms No
Ms No's picture

Bring on the collapse, these prices are rediculous!  Some areas in AZ I've been looking at are up 20% this year!  Rents are through the roof and nobody with a brain is getting in this market right now.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:16 | 5800662 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

i'd be watchin' for something like a "frankie", freddie and fannie's kountry cousin... either that, or print a sh*tload of apps in meskin, and have the "detainees" fill 'em out.

free my people!!! ebby's army can sew the banners
if you don't have demand, you must supply it, simple

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:19 | 5800682 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

rehire fraklin raynes (sp) he can fix it..

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:43 | 5800776 Hohum
Hohum's picture

You spelled "Franklin" wrong.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:41 | 5801033 sTls7
sTls7's picture

You've got to be kidding...surely you jest,  that crook, all he cared about was his bonus. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:20 | 5800688 Gab Timov
Gab Timov's picture

"You know you're right."

(It's a Kurt Cobain song.)

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:23 | 5800697 monopoly
monopoly's picture

LOL> So,interest rates on a 30 year fixed increase by 9 basis points and the mortgage markets collapse. Can you imagine the carnage in housing and most markets when we have an increase of 100 basis points. That is just 1%. Talk about walking on thin ice. Beyond words.

When will we pay the Piper. We cannot move forward until we rid the world of all this excess liquidity and debt. Afraid it is going to be a while. Got gold?

And at some point the Brilliant ones at the Fed will lose control of interest rates. They will not raise rates, they can't and we all here know that.....But the market can raise them without Ms. Yellen's permission. And the market will. Mr. Market always wins. Tick tock.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:52 | 5800830 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

We can only hope 'Mr Market' still exists. Right now it appears he has been canned by the PINKO FASCIST COMMIES!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:34 | 5800731 agstacks
agstacks's picture

Climate Chaos™ is to blame here as temperatures continue to fall throughout most of the counrty.  Because the warming was left negligently unattended for so long, it has morphed into severe cooling and if nothing is done, a runaway cooling period could descend upon us and end life as we know it.  The housing market will not recover until we get serious about Climate Chaos™.  This begins with educating your republican neighbors about the dangers of Global Warming™/Climate Change™/Climate Chaos™. If they won't do it for their kids, try to show them how it could hurt them financially. That always seems to work with greedy republicans. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:51 | 5800823 Ms No
Ms No's picture

Starts are up on low income housing for illegal immigrants.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:51 | 5800826 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

Prices need to come down another 30%.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:56 | 5800846 Banker Buster
Banker Buster's picture

Would be good to see an overlay of home prices and stocks on top of those charts.  That would really top off the, this is a great wreckovery.  Either asset prices come way down or wages go way up.  One has to give.  I'm guessing asset prices get skull fuked, like when warren buffett and bernanke get together.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:14 | 5800925 miker
miker's picture

Where I live in Charlotte NC supply is limited.  Most of the remaining parcels in the inner city have now been  built on.  Most older people aren't budging (no moviing up or down).    And the supply that does come on the market is too expensive.  Of course lots of zombie McMansions out in the hinterlands; not sure who owns or cares (probably still alot of bank owned).

For rental, it is correct, 2,3,4 or more in a house.  Some are Mom and Pop landlords, others I'm not sure.

And of course apartments continue to be built.  The next real bubble. But the banks have to lend and this meme is as good as any.  Plus the Fed has already demonstrated moral hazard so most of these developers (and their bankers) feel as if they have nothing to lose.

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 19:04 | 5805707 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

This doesn't look like a Recovery from 2007 Crash.

- 7-9 years after Housing Crash(Top 2005)
- But this has more to do with New Home Starts being POOR
- Total Construction Looks Good
- Existing Home Sales are Patchy by Region, Total Misleads the Reader, you have to search by Region
- Existing Homes Sales in South Look very Good, but..
- Existing homes Sales in Northeast looks poor, but...

New Privately Owned Housing Starts in the United States, Total One-Family Units, 2014:Q4: 153 Thousands of Units, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, HOUST1FQ, Updated: 2015-02-18
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST1FQ

New One Family Houses Sold: United States
2014-12: 481 Thousands, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, HSN1F, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HSN1F

Existing Home Sales©
2014-12: 5,040,000 Number of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, EXHOSLUSM495S, Updated: 2015-01-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSM495S

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Under Construction: Total
2015-01: 839 Thousands of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, UNDCONTSA, Updated: 2015-02-18
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNDCONTSA

Total Construction Spending
2014-12: 982,089 Millions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, TTLCONS, Updated: 2015-02-02
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TTLCONS

-

If the mean sales price is around $200K, then this seems a poor indicator for the economy since those at the bottom are not in recovery mode.

Existing Home Sales in West Census Region©
2014-12: 1,120,000 Number of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, EXHOSLUSWTM495S, Updated: 2015-01-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSWTM495S

Existing Home Sales in South Census Region©
2014-12: 2,170,000 Number of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, EXHOSLUSSOM495S, Updated: 2015-01-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSSOM495S

Existing Home Sales in Midwest Census Region©
2014-12: 1,090,000 Number of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, EXHOSLUSMWM495S, Updated: 2015-01-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSMWM495S

Existing Home Sales in Northeast Census Region©
2014-12: 660,000 Number of Units, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, EXHOSLUSNEM495S, Updated: 2015-01-23
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXHOSLUSNEM495S

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 19:33 | 5805815 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Here is an Indictment of the US Congress and the Obama Recovery Spin.

- New Houses Sold recovers for High Middle Class & Wealthy
- New Houses Sold for $199,999 and below did not Recover and are at lower Levels of Sales than 2008

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $750,000 and Over
2014:Q4: 7 Thousands of Units (above 2003 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP75OQ, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP75OQ

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $500,000 and $749,999
2014:Q4: 11 Thousands of Units (above 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP50T74Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP50T74Q

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $400,000 and $499,999
2014:Q4: 10 Thousands of Units (Below 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP40T49Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP40T49Q

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $300,000 and $399,999
2014:Q4: 22 Thousands of Units (Below 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP30T39Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP30T39Q

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $150,000 and $199,999
2014:Q4: 15 Thousands of Units (No recovery, Below 2008 Crash Level)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP15T19Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP15T19Q

New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Under $125,000
2014:Q4: 2 Thousands of Units (No recovery, Below 2008 Crash Level)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSPU12Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSPU12Q

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