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New York Fed Discusses "Pathological Gambling" And "Self-Manipulation With Alcohol And Drugs"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When a member of the New York Fed staff releases a paper on the topic of Anxiety, Overconfidence, and Excessive Risk Taking, and in which there is a section on "Self-Manipulation with Alcohol and Drugs", which explains that "pathological gambling is more common among people with alcohol use disorders," adds that "there is evidence that drugs are used strategically to induce performance changes, and particularly so for individuals with greater degrees of horizon-dependent  risk aversion", observes that 'Anecdotal evidence on the “widespread use of [...] cocaine by professional traders” is consistent both with strategic self-manipulation and with our observations about cross-sectional overconfidence across environments", and finally recommends to all the risk-averse BTFDers and BTFATHers, that "the performance of anxiety-prone individuals should then improve with moderate levels of drug-induced overconfidence" one should probably listen and trade - since the Fed's only remaining wealth effect and "monetary transmission channel" is to BTFATH - while both drunk and high.

From the NY Fed white paper:

Self-Manipulation with Alcohol and Drugs

 

A second interpretation of how the belief manipulation of our model may be implemented in practice is through the use of alcohol and other drugs. This section gives a brief review of psychological evidence on the effect of alcohol and other drugs on (i) risky behavior, (ii) forgetting and confidence, and (iii) performance changes. In addition, we discuss evidence on the strategic use of alcohol and other drugs by anxiety-prone individuals to induce effects (i)–(iii).

 

The finding that alcohol is associated with more risky behavior is robust across domains. In the field, alcohol consumption has been shown to lead to risky sexual behavior (Halpern-Felsher et al., 1996; Cooper, 2002), accident-related injuries (Cherpitel et al., 1995), and dangerous driving patterns (Donovan et al., 1983). Pathological gambling is more common among people with alcohol use disorders, and vice versa (Grant et al., 2002; Petry et al., 2005). In the lab, Lane et al. (2004) establish causality from alcohol consumption to risky behavior.

 

Riskier behavior can be driven either by reductions in risk aversion, or by a decreased perception of risk. Cohen et al. (1958) show that the more risky driving  behavior caused by alcohol consumption is associated with a higher degree of overconfidence. Supporting the channel suggested by our model, alcohol has also been shown to lead to forgetting, especially of negative signals (Nelson et al., 1986; Maylor and Rabbitt, 1987).

 

In the context of our model, the performance of anxiety-prone individuals should then improve with moderate levels of drug-induced overconfidence. James et al. (1977) as well as Brantigan et al. (1982) show that the use of beta-blockers improves the erformance of musicians with stage fright.

 

Lastly, there is evidence that drugs are used strategically to induce performance changes, and particularly so for individuals with greater degrees of horizon- dependent risk aversion. Steptoe and Fidler (1987) find that 17 percent of professional musicians with high performance anxiety reported taking sedatives as a method of coping, compared with 4 percent with medium and none of the respondents with low performance anxiety. Anecdotal evidence on the “widespread use of [...] cocaine by professional traders” (Bossaerts, 2009) is consistent both with strategic self-manipulation and with our observations about cross-sectional overconfidence across environments.

Needless to say, when the NY Fed discusses "self-manipulation" using blow and booze, listen! They know what they are talking about...

 

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Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:22 | 5800474 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Traders do roids too.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:25 | 5800487 44MagnumPrepper
44MagnumPrepper's picture

ALL HAIL CHUMBA.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:29 | 5800504 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Did they discuss sex parties?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:41 | 5800537 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Strauss-Kahn: Only 12 sex parties in three years

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31318120

 

Lets rub it in.  heh.

Its getting rough out there !

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:57 | 5800571 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I am more concerned with the murderers and thieves in government than some substance-addled investment pricks.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:06 | 5800601 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Im baked right now.

.

No wonder they dont want us toking - in a puff of smoke the illusion than becomes clear, its all hidden in plain sight...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:13 | 5800646 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"the performance of anxiety-prone individuals should then improve with moderate levels of drug-induced overconfidence"

I'm not familiar with the word "moderate" when it comes to cocaine.  I always knew how much of it I was going to use: all of it.

I have to tell you, I'm so glad I'm past those days now.  Freaking nuts.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:27 | 5800710 Utah_Get_Me_2
Utah_Get_Me_2's picture

All of it.

Spot on. I've never seen a bag of cocaine I did't want to finish.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:51 | 5800799 mt paul
mt paul's picture

many decades ago 

we had 94 % pure mother of pearl bolivian crystals

'was washed a few extra times with ether'

so fresh you could bend the big flakes

so pure it lead to psychosis if you consumed too much

scary substance if you didn't know when to say when ..

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:53 | 5801092 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Yeah the 'ole fish scales, wow man oh man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTHlXb0PXh4

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:20 | 5800687 Sixdeuce062
Sixdeuce062's picture

moar chumblz moar panties

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:26 | 5800493 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Fed: Use Booze, Coke & Hookers with liberal, reckless abandon, & BTFATH, bitchez.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:35 | 5800528 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

 Working for the Fed back in the 80's it was all too common for top execs there to be sent to go dry out.  The NY Prez at one point knocked over a podium while addressing a bankers group.....  the mindset percolated doen the ranks - was astounding how many execs there had alcohol issues 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:31 | 5800991 winchester
winchester's picture

best use of coke and bitch is put coke on ( ® )( ® ) of the bitch as a desk.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:27 | 5800496 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

everybody is high

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:23 | 5800478 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I'm self-manipulating right now!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:25 | 5800489 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture

 

 

 

THANKS ! I'M NOW JELLEN WITH MY YELLEN

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:30 | 5800500 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Wait a sec, I just actually read the post..."the performance of anxiety-prone individuals should then improve with moderate levels of drug-induced overconfidence" ... I've been doing it wrong all these years by 'just saying no'.  Time to teach the kids a new strategy...do lines, drain bottles, make money!  It's a whole new world for me.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:15 | 5801167 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

There is no debate about the Master-yellin' at the FED.

They do it 24/7.

FED find their inner Yellin', must be why its so quiet, like a library or tomb.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:29 | 5800502 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Both inches?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:31 | 5800509 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I don't use my thumbs!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:23 | 5800481 prefan4200
prefan4200's picture

Why the hell is the Fed concerning itself with this shit?  Don't they have much bigger problems to address?  Or are they so out of bullets, that this is the best they can come up with to keep themselves busy?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:27 | 5800498 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

They are just saying ; to be in this 'market' you have to

be stoned outta your mind.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:32 | 5800517 Peak Finance
Peak Finance's picture

Bah.

I don't know if it's "publish or perish" at the Fed, but their academic types crank-out TONS of papers every year.

Sounds like he was bored and wanted to do a paper on a more fun topic. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:50 | 5801074 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Probably just wanted to do some blow and hookers with his trader buddies and needed the excuse it was all for a 'Research paper'

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:02 | 5800588 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

because they are pathologically gambling with OUR money

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:23 | 5800482 zeropain
zeropain's picture

crazy, is the fed waking up?  wow they are communicating moral hazard.  holy fuck...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:33 | 5800515 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Next..it will be "self-Mutilation".

Heavens.....the patient is waking up before we can remove it's brain !

"I wanna Live!" - The Island, 2005.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ihd-NwI030c

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:27 | 5800486 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Self manipulation is one of my favorite actvities. Judging from all the blindness in our culture, it appears I'm not alone.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:25 | 5800488 youngman
youngman's picture

I did not trade anything today....but I am going to have several beers later...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:27 | 5800490 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Blaming the drinking???

What next, "Mommy never loved me and Daddy wasn't there?"

How 'bout, 'cause they're crooks?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:30 | 5800499 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Can't they stick to business?

What's next; a personal advice column?

Too many government employees searching for ways to justify their employment and budget.  Fire half of all the managers.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:33 | 5800520 motorollin
motorollin's picture

Newest NY Fed employee:

 

Ann Landers

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:40 | 5800532 Bob
Bob's picture

This was from an employee of the banksters' bank, not a banksters' government employee. 

Besides, you can't fire the managers . . . they bring the blow & hoes!  Or approve the expense. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:39 | 5800506 kowalli
kowalli's picture

They just want to save their asses, but i still trying to find out how

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:34 | 5800523 SirBarksAlot
SirBarksAlot's picture

Well, they should know

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:34 | 5800524 permarig
permarig's picture

I've invested some of my QE monetary herion money in my HSBC private bank account into marijuana penny stocks.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:56 | 5801106 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

One of my friends put a little into MJNA at like .09 a share. It was a couple years ago, but it went up to like .40/share, I kept telling him to sell it, since he was up 400%, and he kept telling me how I need to buy it now while it's still a penny stock, since it was going to go big time soon. Your post made me think of it, so I went over to market watch to check, it's now .11 a share...which was a relief, since this guy is a dumbass, and I was actually scared it would be worth a few dollars by now. But, it did what I said it would-nothing.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 00:15 | 5802147 nohweh
nohweh's picture

Just like QE herself,and The Crown

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:36 | 5800529 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Right in line with hookers and blow and GDP.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:39 | 5800533 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

They got an AA meeting place right down the street from there.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:40 | 5800536 Decimus Lunius ...
Decimus Lunius Luvenalis's picture

Issue an IPO for a GSE, lever it with bonds to be purchased by the Fed, use the proceeds to purchase cocaine, have the Merchant Navy bring it in protected by the Coast Guard and Navy, then have the HHS deliver it to anyone in the US who meets stock purchase targets (e.g., 1 kilo for every $25k in purchase orders).  Make any non-violent crimes committed to meet a stock purchase target forgiven if enrolled in a properly approved program with HHS monitored by a licensed social worke/broker.  Boom! Dow to infinity and no more drug wars!  The best part is we can greatly expand the sham addiction treatment centers by opening another GSE, levered by Fed purhcased bonds, so we'll get millions of new jobs to treat millions of new addicts!  

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:16 | 5800552 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

I see a lot of market frustration now.

Deflating !

(FED need new fluffer).

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:52 | 5800559 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

When I had a cocaine disorder I was actually more happy and wealthy...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:05 | 5800600 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Correlation, or causation?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:52 | 5800562 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

These people really need to learn to speak english.  holy shit snacks batman.

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 16:58 | 5800574 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Great pic for this article.

LOOK AT YOU NOW

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:25 | 5800579 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Pedophile Wall street gamers get bored after the money bag hits under Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing. New investing into smut, and illusions rocks their jollies.

Ticket To War: No Moron Left Behind

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:36 | 5800738 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Tavistock Institute thanks you for the your down vote.

Status-Groups

Care to argue or do you just dispute by pressing the mouse button? Negative thumbs down. Tell me mysterious cunt.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:07 | 5800620 nah
nah's picture

alchohol and drugs are unhealthy habbits for people

.

buncha' rich farts having fun

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:09 | 5800624 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

And, since there is a revolving door between Wall Street, the Fed, the Dept of Treasury, and the various regulators,  this article should indicate that only the highest of the high, and drunkest of the drunk, ever make it into positions where they can be paid to author papers about how drunk (and high)  everyone else is...

Que Paulie Shore, the next Idiocracy Secretary of Treasury- to be announced by the Choom-Wagon in Chief at a White House "garden" ceremony, while the marching band blazes up some Bob Marley mood music... 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:11 | 5800634 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

After you read something like this and are a big trader or small investor or NOT...

What must you be thinking at this point of the author in question and their position of importance to your future?!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:20 | 5800685 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

ya.. 'casue I always seek eCONomist input for societal stressors and such, addiction advice, etc.

 

wtf???

 

P < P + I

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:20 | 5800686 perelmanfan
perelmanfan's picture

Actually, "moderate levels of drug-induced overconfidence" is the six-word phrase explaining virtually every worthwhile achievement. Tricky bit is, it also explains virtually every horrific error.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:53 | 5800837 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Stop it, you're killing BLS lies on the U-3 employment spike vs. war on drugs campaign.

/LOL

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:25 | 5800701 Ms No
Ms No's picture

SNORT!!! 

I am BTFD bitchez!!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:31 | 5800719 RagnarRedux
RagnarRedux's picture

Lesson #2, don't get high on your own supply.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJM8yJTn_I0

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:43 | 5800760 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Fed is about 15 years late on this "news."  Seems about right.  There was tons of coke going down during the tech bubble, probably less now because bots don't to so much.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:47 | 5800794 nohweh
nohweh's picture

100% pure Pharmakeia

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:56 | 5800847 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Let traders gamble other peoples money, collect bonuses on profits and suffer no penalties for losses.

Then wonder why markets don't function as game theory predicts.

 

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 17:58 | 5800856 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

"Hey Mel - joo know what a Hassa is...?   It's a pig, that don't fly straight..."

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:03 | 5800871 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Once the superhighway is completed [Mexico to Canada TransAtlantic], American Union will be born. Sad but true. Old underground tunnels will be used.

The Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade Database

http://www.slavevoyages.org/tast/index.faces

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:11 | 5800910 Ms No
Ms No's picture

"How the belief manipulation of our model may be implemented in practice is throught the use of alcohol and other drugs"

Expect to see shit tons of free coke and heroin (fresh out of Afghanistan) anywhere traders are partying these days.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:34 | 5800990 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

After 9/11, Bush lodged a war in Afghanistan first. To take down poppy seed farmers. Then attacked Iraq because Saddam was only going to accept euro for oil. This all comes back 360 degrees, the Federal Reserve of the United States who creates money out of thin air. Calls it a recovery to match Wall Street insider trading expectations on GDP target numbers. Just look at the Bank of International projections. Keep building more robots to displace pension theft.

GDP will become the next Libor index who crashed and burned. Blows a kiss!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 18:53 | 5801096 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

O.K.

Just a little pinprick.

There'll be no more, ah!

But you may feel a little sick.

Can you stand up?

I do believe it's working, good.

That'll keep you going through the show

Come on it's time to go.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:03 | 5801129 trader1
trader1's picture

Virtually all coca comes from three countries: Bolivia, Colombia and Peru. The slopes of the Andes provide perfect conditions for the coca bush, whose leaves Andean people were chewing long before the arrival of European explorers. Chomped or boiled up as tea, the leaves provide a mild, caffeine-like buzz which dulls hunger and cold. Combined with a few everyday chemicals it makes the much stronger cocaine. Colombia was not always the biggest producer: in 1990 it was responsible for only 19% of the coca market, behind both Bolivia and Peru. But government crackdowns in Peru, and then Bolivia, drove the trade over the border into Colombia. In 1995 it overhauled Bolivia, and then overtook Peru in 1997 to become the world’s main supplier of coca leaves. 

The recent fall in coca cultivation in Colombia is partly down to a ramping up of enforcement by the Colombian government. With the help of funds from the United States under Plan Colombia, the government stepped up eradication efforts, spraying weed-killer from planes (Bolivia and Peru prefer manual eradication). At the same time demand fell in United States, Colombia’s main market: in 2010 2.2% of adults took the drug, down from 3% in 2006. Europeans, meanwhile, who get most of their cocaine from Bolivia and Peru, have become far more interested in cocaine: consumption in Britain, for instance, almost doubled between 2000 and 2010 (though it has since tailed off a bit). Bolivian and Peruvian growers therefore stepped up production. They have also had to meet greater local demand: Brazil has become the world’s biggest market for crack and the second-biggest for powder cocaine.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-expl...

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:12 | 5801161 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Sounds like he is advocating Soma.

The hubris of such personalities knows no limits!

They not only believe they understand your local conditions better than you, they believe they can preempt your values without inducing rebellion.

Nonsense!

This kind of central planning preemption is the worst kind of dogma.  They would litterally preempt a diabetic's decision to eat fat instead of sugar presuming a sugar high to be a universal value.

There are no universal values.

And when we pretend that there are the result is pure destruction.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:02 | 5801327 trader1
trader1's picture

"There are no universal values."

Freedom doesn't tickle you?

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:59 | 5801464 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

A quote from Scarface or from a meeting of bankers from the Federal Reserve?

Frank Lopez: Lesson number one: Don't underestimate the other guy's greed! [laughing]

Elvira Hancock: Lesson number two: Don't get high on your own supply.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!