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Shipbuilding Orders Slump As Baltic Dry Hits Fresh Record Low

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the 56th day of the last 58, The Baltic Dry Index dropped. At 509, this is now down over 65% from the dead cat bounce highs in November 2014 and - yet again - a new all-time record low for the cost of shipping freight. It is no surprise then that, as Lloydlist reports, bulker newbuilding orders slumped in January. When the Baltic Dry tumbled in 2012, the glut of ships then caused a 49% plunge in orders for shipbuilding - as JPMorgan said at the time, "you just have too many yards and too few orders," and given the artificial signals provided by credit-inflated commodities since, we can only imagine the overhang now.

 

 

 

What happened in 2012 when the BDIY dropped...

China has too many ships.

 

The glut has pushed new vessel prices to eight-year lows and caused a 49 percent plunge in first-half orders at the nation’s more than 1,500 shipbuilders. It’s also tipped smaller yards into bankruptcy and hit earnings at larger players.

 

“It is a pretty depressing environment,” said Ajay Mirchandani, a Singapore-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst. “You just have too many yards and too few orders, which is hurting pricing and profitability.”

 

Orders have tumbled as a global excess of commodity, oil and container ships has damped cargo rates and deterred owners from ordering more vessels.

And today is far worse - the building has been driven by the artificial boom in commodity prices influenced by the exuberant money printing largesses of the world's central banks...

A SLUMP in bulker newbuildings was recorded during January, with analysts linking the decline to the current dismal state of the dry bulk market.

 

Greece-based Intermodal Research and Valuations, which prepares a monthly report on global shipping, reported just 20 new orders for bulk carriers.

It is just starting...

 

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Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:04 | 5801334 nosoeawe
nosoeawe's picture

totally bullish. S&P goes to 39,850,239,843 in the next 12 days!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:49 | 5801433 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

TOTALLY FUCKING BULLISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 04:09 | 5802435 Nafets93
Nafets93's picture

My god! Take off your tinfoil hat!! The S&P will rise much, much more than that, why are you pissing all over the party :-(

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:16 | 5801355 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

Go here to learn the truth ....
http://www.whitehouse.gov/

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 22:09 | 5801682 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

What Obamacare is the truth???? WTF no sarc tag. Well when yall wake up to no dr no hospitals that will accept that expensive high deductable shit you got the taxpayer to fund for you then you will know the truth. WAKE THE FUCK UP,,,,,!,,,,,,

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:26 | 5803105 Oxbo Rene
Oxbo Rene's picture

/SARC

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:19 | 5801364 Bilderberg Member
Bilderberg Member's picture

Hasn't that thing gotten to zero yet??

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:19 | 5801365 hotrod
hotrod's picture

Lagging indicator.  Plosser says we need to raise the rates now.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:35 | 5801382 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

All we need to the scripted chaos status is somali pirates taking over ship sitting at POLA. First you rob the cargo, then sink vessel so ship builders have a new backlog.

 

/Hahahahahaa

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:32 | 5801397 hairball48
hairball48's picture

The bulk carrier builders should cheer up.

FEMA will buy the excess capacity to warehouse us old folks in after the coming crackup boom destroys what's left of the economy.

/sarc

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 23:00 | 5801876 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Why is Gitmo Prison in Gitmo, Alex?

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:32 | 5801398 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Yet another confirmation of what we all know: we're sunk.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:33 | 5801400 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Transitory. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:52 | 5801437 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

New norm according to MSM breaking news. Which has the lowest ratings in history. FCC Net neutrality Internet neutering in the works. We'll just go underground and laugh at depleated Ad revenue sponsorship. If you think you have a problem now, just wait for Obama to pass his EO.

Darknet or TOR will fuck up your tax collection.. There are other's to use, I have ducktape on my mouth. Fuck off Obama, carry on and watch your corporate bitch's whine. They need us, we don't need them!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:54 | 5801448 jstrack
jstrack's picture

Index is for raw materials transport and not container ships.  That is why it is one indicator of future economic activity or expectations by industry.  Container shipping seems to be holding ok for now from whatI can tell.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 21:16 | 5801501 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

We need to start blowing up more shit, that's for sure.   Then we can spend more printed money to build new shit.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 21:25 | 5801535 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

"Life leaves clues"

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 21:33 | 5801568 petedanels
petedanels's picture

Buy the highs and buy the lows, a new and correct way to trade!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 22:13 | 5801706 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

See the reason for this so called strike by shipbuilders. Really no where to put anymore containers froom what I see. Nobody is spending cause nobody making any expendable income so call it a strike.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 22:26 | 5801746 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

It's Russia's fault, they're causing the longshoreman union dispute. Meanwhile, China is making money on expired shipping penalties. The turd in the White House has no clue.

 

/Sarc

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 22:35 | 5801786 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Holy Shit - it's a screaming BUY!!! Rob gas stations, stick-up banks, mug the infirm and elderly - just get some CASH and buy STAWKS - you CAN'T lose!!!.......

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 23:24 | 5801962 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

You Can Turn A $2000 Shipping Container Into An Epic Off-Grid Home

 

Stay clear from tornado zones or hail drop spots. Insurance companies may consider this a high risk property, considering it can be plucked back on a ship for resale.

/sarc

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 23:37 | 5802018 DaveA
DaveA's picture

If this West Coast shipping strike isn't resolved, those ships will have to be broken down and recycled into smaller Panamax ships, delivering Chinese goods to non-union ports on the Gulf Coast. Bullish!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 05:10 | 5802483 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Stockcharts P&F (Point and Figure) chart has a price target of 245.   Ships will likely then be 50% off :-).    Just sayin'.   Googlized link below to stockcharts.

 

 

http://goo.gl/j4bDN7

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!