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US Macro Collapses To 11-Month Lows, 88% Of Data Has Missed In February

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the total and utter cognitive dissonance of talking-heads on mainstream media channels, the US economic data is not 'strong', is not 'goldilocks', is not 'decoupled', is not 'solid'. In fact, it's absolutely terrible. Bloomberg's US Macro data indicator which tracks both beats-and-misses and improvement/deterioration in data - is at 11-month lows. February alone has seen 29 data items miss expectations (from retail sales to industrial production) with only 4 data points beating expectations (including the constantly revised nonfarm payrolls data which so many hang their hat on).

 

US macro at 11-month lows... (note that the data cliff-dives at end Sept 2014 - which corresponds with the government's fiscal-year-end)

 

February...

MISS

  • Personal Spending
  • Construction Spending
  • ISM New York
  • Factory Orders
  • Ward's Domestic Vehicle Sales
  • ADP Employment
  • Challenger Job Cuts
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Nonfarm Productivity
  • Trade Balance
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Labor Market Conditions Index
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism
  • Wholesale Inventories
  • Wholesale Sales
  • IBD Economic Optimism
  • Mortgage Apps
  • Retail Sales
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • Business Inventories
  • UMich Consumer Sentiment
  • Empire Manufacturing
  • NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
  • Housing Starts
  • Building Permits
  • PPI
  • Industrial Production
  • Capacity Utilization
  • Manufacturing Production

BEAT

  • Personal Income
  • Markit Services PMI
  • Nonfarm Payrolls
  • JOLTS

*  *  *

But apart from that... everything is awesome.

 

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Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:05 | 5801133 mtndds
mtndds's picture

BULLISH!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:07 | 5801145 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:10 | 5801157 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

wow we are doing good !!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:16 | 5801176 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

beating of whom ?

there is no one left that's the problem not even Russia manipulating global weather as to blame

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:09 | 5801153 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

uber bullish!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:17 | 5801185 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

The great thing is, and despite this news, according to the BLS the economy will add a quarter million jobs this month.  Count on it.

/s

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:17 | 5801186 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

BULLISH!!!

I was so happy to find this to be the first comment.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:07 | 5801147 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What exactly is "US MACRO" composed of?  I find it odd that the equation for inflation can be modified to fit the current meme, but this cannot.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:47 | 5801295 BandGap
BandGap's picture

US Macroroni.

Cheesy beyond belief.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:09 | 5801152 The Shape
The Shape's picture

Fed getting quotes on paper and ink now.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:10 | 5801155 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

the stock market is Undervalued in Huge way... Dow 20,000 by March!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:11 | 5801160 SilverMoney1
SilverMoney1's picture

"Missing" for economic data doesn't mean "bad". Economists can't forecast anything.

 

Most of those PMI numbers are still above in expansion territory. That is why people are buying.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:25 | 5801215 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Would like to see the latet GS swirl-o-gram. 

Maybe the 'gram' is too ugly to show to the public.

Might show when the market is ready to flush.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 22:13 | 5801709 SilverMoney1
SilverMoney1's picture

I'm serious man. Most of those listed are lagging. No one with big money cares, they already know. The pmis are SLOWING but not predicting contraction (two quarters of negative gdp) that is why the returns in the stock market will mostly likely be positive (all else being equal).

 

That is proven by data and correlation.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:15 | 5801172 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Winning so hard. I think my dick might explode.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:15 | 5801173 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

High-Low. PukeFest!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:15 | 5801174 TheIlluminaughty
TheIlluminaughty's picture

Right, missing estimates placed by a bunch of overpaid idiots. I would say the US economy is not strong, but I would also say these estimates are not the benchmark to judge by as well.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:16 | 5801175 miker
miker's picture

2 things are keeping the economy up.  Banks are lending like crazy for apartements and some commercial.  Their balance sheets have been improved (courtsey of the Fed) and they have no choice but to lend.

Oil is down and helping at all levels.  Improved profits for companies (remember sticky prices), lowered costs at consumer end.  Yes, the frackers are being screwed and loans in trouble, but the Fed can handle that.

Other than that, things are trending down.  Real estate (non-apartments is slowing because cost structure is too high and supply is way down).  Exports are getting hurt by strong dollar.  Everyone else has finally realized how fucked we really are and wants are falling by the wayside to needs.

Expect serious recession or what I'm calling a "snap depression" in 2015.  Even the Fed won't be expecting this.  NO surprise there :)

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:31 | 5801237 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Banks are lending"?!?  Bullshit.  Although they should be giving any profitable business access to all the credit they need for 0.25 % interest!!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 21:15 | 5801497 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Someday all that will be left of the mighty "lending" business model is a legend about it.
Pert near there already. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:20 | 5801188 blown income
blown income's picture

I  said a week or 2 ago I had enough of the bullshit show...I was still coming occasionally to ZH and sneaking peaks...

 

Fuck it...I found a job over in SW Florida , will run up all the plastic , Wells can have the house ...Fuck it ..just Fuck it...I found a 1 bed condo furnished on Santa Rosa sound , cheap...will move my family in June when daughter is out , by that time I will have found a home to rent and fuck it...go for chapter 7 ...I will learn to love life again , enjoy the beach , fishing and living...If I can't pay cash , they we will go without...this old Dell latitude will keep on running and I have all parts to build it again..Fuck a TV that can see me , record me..

 

Hurricanes , if one comes I will deal with it...not my first rodeo when it comes to that ...Fuck Lafayette La

 

Fuck the circus,banksters , and all the rest of them crooks...blowing up my cards , credit , fuck it I will survive!

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:21 | 5801204 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

you are not alone that's what a Greece is doing now

congrats

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:37 | 5801260 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Lots of us at that point, which means the shit finally blows this year. Just when you resign yourself to a shitty fate, life gets better. 

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:19 | 5801194 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

I like the S&P overlay on the macro, just screams RIGGED

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:20 | 5801200 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Funny you should mention "fiscal year."  FY 2015 deficit is actually slightly higher than 2014 YTD.

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:25 | 5801216 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

It all adds up to MOAR STEALTH QE to juice the markets, climb that wall of worry BAAAAAAAAAAABY

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:30 | 5801228 FPearl602
FPearl602's picture

Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral...Think Weimar, Venezuela, Zimbabwe....

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:32 | 5801241 FPearl602
FPearl602's picture

Trash is Cash: Cash is trash. Get your paycheck and spend it as fast as you can (UNTIL THE SHELVES ARE BARE).

it's coming to a Seven-11 near you....

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:41 | 5801275 heisenberg991
heisenberg991's picture

Don't forget Burger King has the 2 for 5 bucks deal going. Oh Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:47 | 5801296 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

smh

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 19:51 | 5801302 freegrants
freegrants's picture

This and the stock market is trading at all time highs!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 20:01 | 5801324 The Duke of New...
The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

DOW 50,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 21:29 | 5801552 petedanels
petedanels's picture

Everything is fine, as we have found a new way to keep on truckin without consequence... Don't worry, be happy

Wed, 02/18/2015 - 23:42 | 5802033 badger10
badger10's picture

Will let you all get rich as I see a market struggling to go higher with deflation and demand a major factor in the market correction. Central banks will have to inflate their balance sheets with more printed money . . Didn't the Fed miss the last recession? It won't be the bears selling it will be the longs getting out of their longs. All markets have tops people!

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