This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Greece Gives Europe A Counter-Ultimatum: Accept Or Reject Our Offer
UPDATE: *GREEK GOVT WON'T ACCEPT ULTIMATUMS, WON'T GIVE ANY: OFFICIAL
After days of repeated ultimata from The Eurogroup, as Germany (bad cop) and the rest (good cop) make optimistic sounds, this morning's rejection of Greece's latest plan (following Greek comparisons of Germany to Nazi surrender demands) has prompted something new:
- *EU HAS 2 CHOICES, APPROVE OR REJECT GREEK REQUEST: OFFICIAL
- *EUROGROUP MEETING TO SHOW WHO WANTS A SOLUTION: GREEK OFFICIAL
Markets are stumbling on this news as Germany and the rest come to terms with not just the billions in debt on ECB and various bank balance sheets but the 49 billion other reasons to avoid Grexit that have mounted in TARGET2 liabilities.
* * *
As Bloomberg reports,
Eurogroup has two choices tomorrow, either reject or accept Greece’s extension request, a Greek govt official says, in response to German Finance Ministry spokesman comments.
Greece has submitted request for 6-mo extension of loan agreement: official
Reuters adds that the Greece's government "said it was up to euro zone finance ministers to decide whether to accept or reject its proposal to extend a loan agreement, in a bid to play down German comments rejecting the proposal as insufficient. "The Greek government submitted a letter to the Eurogroup asking for a six-month extension of the loan agreement. Tomorrow's Eurogroup has only two options: either to accept or reject the Greek request," a government official said. "It will then be clear who wants to find a solution and who doesn't." Earlier on Thursday, the German finance ministry rejected Athens' request for an extension by saying it fell short of the conditions set out earlier this week by the euro zone.
What else is at stake besides the tens of billions of Greek sovereign bonds held by the ECB and various European official institutions? Why just some EUR 49 billion in Bundesbank Target2 claims which risk a prompt unwind once the sanctity of the "monetary union" is finally broken...
* * *
As Goldman recently warned, this is the worst case scenario...
That said, there are aspects that leave us more worried than we have been since the start of the Euro area crisis. The confrontation between Greece and its European creditors is taking place against different political constraints than on previous occasions. The new Greek government has to be able to claim at home that the program agreed on by its predecessors is all but defunct. While the European partners can agree to modify the content of the program, as we have seen occur in other program countries, they cannot abandon previous arrangements. In our view, the risk of a miscalculation in the negotiations remains high and will peak between now and month-end, when the current program ends.
...
To mitigate the risk of a failure of the two sides reaching an agreement by the end of the month, investors could consider buying deep out-of-money put options spanning this horizon on liquid equity indices. Given the systemic nature of the ‘shock’, we doubt that even the major markets would be unaffected.
And now, back to BTFATH.
»
- 38308 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bring it On!
the EU has two options...
to put it in far fewer words... just say
shit or get off the pot
...Hope Greece doesn't become WW#3's War front lines..
I blame the Greek response on this guy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-19/and-now-back-down-after-germany...
That is just plain disgusting.
A lot can and should be blamed on that guy.
You like my post? I´ll post it again, no problem. That´s what will happen:
Lol, watch the so-called game theory expert Varoufakis come crawling into the room tomorrow in Brussels and kiss Schäubles feet asking for forgiveness. This will be "grand opera", a show so good worth 10 billion Euro in debt forgiven for the Greeks. Greeks are so pathetic underachievers, it always hard to believe actually. "Proud nation", my arse!
...or 2/20/2015 will be Greek Independence Day, I bet Dr. V has been expecting this much for many years now, and exercising his whit.
Happens time to time for the Balkans...it's what they doo .
If this is bluffing (by either side), it's damned good bluffing. EXCELLENT entertainment. I want to see more of this. Like maybe with Spain, Portugal and Italy.
The key man is Schäuble. My bet he will move on the 26.2 (just before the expiry of the current loan)
Bankers only know one thing... kick the can. I predict the EU will approve the extension, but not for 6 months like Greece wants. Probably only 1,2, or 3 months at most. That way the ball goes back into Greece's court to accept or reject. Meanwhile, the sociopaths can plan a lot of shit in only a month to enrich themselves and fuck Greece even more and make an example to discourage the other PIIGS.
Of course they'll kick the can, it's all just posturing over how big the can is.
I think Greece knows that no matter what, the EU is going to screw them and they are just making sure everybody knows it....
knuckledragger makes a good point! However I say Greece counters and starts using ruble and renminbi and both china and russia dress up that fat greece hog in the latest in fashion and jewels! meaning they make greece which is a basket case look like a prosperous shinning beacon of economic of recovery and say to the rest of the euro idiots hey you can be greece to! euro panties get wet everybody hops on the big BRICS dick and we get ww3 from the forgotten small dick chosenites in london and new york!
Lose the bold font. If you'd have something worthwhile to contribute you wouldn't need this and you know it.
Greece is not a basket case per se, each and every western nation is bankrupt.
I oppose the EU and it's politicians but I don't take kindly to the term euro idiots.
You try a little harder next time.
Good. You can leave now.
not a basket case per se wtf do you mean??? you a retarded muh fuka? people in greece are literally starving the youth riot in the streets people are arrested injured and killed the whole country is ready to fall apart yes they are a basket case! I use bold you upvote yourself lol we both have our quirks...fuckin euro idiot
Pretty impressive language skills there son.
Voting is something I stay far away from as a rule in life. The one Exception is when I come across one of fonestars alter egos and/or one of his kid bitcoin thread brigadiers.
Stop with the scarecrowing. Of course you have a chance of being arrested and/or assaulted if you riot. Be it morally right or wrong that's what you can expect. Greece will be Greece like it has been for the last couple of thousand years, this will pass like everything before it has and everything after it will untill the end of time. They have been through a lot worse. No falling apart here. A little harder to govern and getting the plebes to rally around the flag sure but the politicians seem to have that covered nicely with the new figureheads saying all the right things, which was to be expected.
Now get of my lawn grasshopper.
bold makes your post very hard to read, & worse : unpleasant to read whatever the content is (i couldn't read)
you can bold one word or expression to make it stand out, to stress its importance in understanding whatever you want to say but to bold the whole paragraph is a downer & cause the opposite effect of the one seeked : it causes one to reject what you say not because of what you say but because of how you say it.
The highest probability outcome is "kick the can" for elected officials. Just maybe Tspiras will be the first to buck the trend. What I dont know is if the Greeks have their own printing press and the template to create a drachma.
>>> What I dont know is if the Greeks have their own printing press and the template to create a drachma.
They don't need to. The Greeks can just use Rubles alongside Euros. One country two currencies, remain technically still in the Eurozone but not take any money from EU. There is no mechanism to expel a country from the Eurozone for merely breaking the Eurozone rules if the country does not choose to leave. Allow the commercial banks to go under and let Russian banks open new branches and take over the Greek retail banking market.
The Russians will give them a shipload of Rubles as advance payment for a 25 year lease of a naval base and a few Greek islands.
From the West's perspective, I cant imagine the EU (Germany) not realizing that it's better to get back "some part" of the money they loaned than to lose 100% of it - and possibly have the huge derivative chain come apart too. There's also the matter of contagion with the rest of the PIIGS like Italy & Spain - not to mention even more dire consequences. Looking at this from a Greek perspective and suspecting that they have a "Standing Offer" from Russia & China should they decide to default on the EU & IMF, I think it's probably best for Greece to not just abandon the Euro, but also leave the EU and withdraw from NATO - here's why... 1. They'd get a fresh start, like someone after declaring bankruptcy and support the mandate of the majority of Greeks that voted for Syriza. 2. They'd be free of the unpopular EU-Russia embargo and would be able to sell their agricultural products to Russia at top prices. 3. They could come to a financial arrangement with Russia to extend the new Gas pipeline coming from Turkey, thereby getting free revenue & ensuring their own future energy needs. 4. After kicking out the Americans, they could rent current US Bases (principally Souda Bay in Crete) to their new partners (the Russians and Chinese), both of whom would pay handsomely for the privilege of having a base in this prime Mediterranean location. Obviously, this last point is the main reason the US is pressing the EU to give in to the Greeks.
More importantly do they have the coders to rewrite the Greek bank software to transact in Drachma. POS machines could be an issue as well. Not the kind of thing a Country usually has to implement over night. Whichever IT firm performs the task will have good work lined up in Italy and Spain :-)
Wolfie, I thought you were on your way to the Ukranian front, teach them Russkies some respect..
Batt77
Ukraine? Not my business. The more the Russians take from it, the less we have to pay for the rest.
Schmarrn und dummes Zeug
RE:""Proud nation", my arse!"
Greece is a proud nation. The greeks fought gallantly against the axis powers in ww2. Not only did they rout the Italian army, but drove them all the way back into Albania. They fought heroically against the Germans, and if the British would have committed more divisions, together they may driven the Germans back as well. The French fell after only 6 weeks, Greece held out for 8 long months. Their heroic stand was somewhat over shadowed by the Greek civil war 1946–49 which errupted afterwards.
Mainland Greece was finished in 2 weeks when most of Greek army surrendered. Some units fought for another week in the mountains. The performance of the Greeks in WWII was, well, what you can expect from underachievers. The Germans and their allies lost just about 4000 men in that war. This shows you that the Greeks didn´t fight too "heroic", if they were fighting at all.
Wolf:
1) The EU will cave.
2) IS will take over Europe.
Both for the same reason:
Europe has lost its nerve to survive. So they are relying on their money to buy their way out of everything, and sometimes money can't save your life - ask any person with terminal cancer.
The cancer for Europe is sexual depravity, drug hedonism, victimization rationalizations, gross effeminization and sexual disorientation, lack of convictions about ethics and morality, unwillingness to confront criminals in high places, tolerance of gross corruption, acceptance of "anything goes" personal conduct . . . the list goes on and on.
Blame the philosophical airheads who build reasons why each of these traits is OK for society. It all adds up to lunancy - take the example of the State Dept. MSNBC program host-in-waiting and her insane conversation that what it takes to bring IS back to Earth is that they "need jobs."
What a bizarre excuse for intellectualism; but she has a great face and big boobs, so give her airtime.
And take Obama for example as well - at what point do you finally admit he is a psycho? His lying is pathological - you know from his raising he is a Muslim, not to mention his own words saying he will side with them.
Yet the psycho liars masquerading as journalists just ignore reality - they are as whacked as the State Dept. spokesperson. How can anyone possibly give them any credibility?
Further, Obama told the world for 16-years in his literary agent's bio that he was born in Kenya - he wrote that on the info form, proofread the copy, and signed off on it. What kind of mentally disturbed person lies like that - and is still allowed to function in a position of power?
And while it's easy to say it's because he is Black, look at the way no one of significance and influence is truly disturbed by Hillary and her delusional sniper attack. They know she's a nut case, and still they back her for president.
Given the fact that these people are accepted to hold power, why is anyone surprised that the West is crumbling under the weight of such insanity?
In short, the West, and Europe, are rotten fruit ready to fall to the ground and decay away into nothing. It really is the decline and fall of Western Civilization as it has existed since the end of the Dark Ages.
The banking crisis is only one sign of this end. You can go through my list, and each of them are just as much signs of the end.
We are witnesses to the end of a historical era. Some of us are young enough to suffer through the fall - others of us are old enough to die and not suffer.
Either way, both points 1 and 2 are true, because everything that followed about the character and composition of Westerners is also true.
-30-
Did you author that, Mars? It's very good, you know. Very good.
I give, what's a liquid equity index? I'me sure Goldman sells the options at quite a premium or else they wouldn't be hawking them but I've never heard of them and friend Google hasn't helped.
49 billion! thats it! paging mr yellen, mr yellen. PLease come to the front desk to sign off on the cashier's request
You're forgetting the value of so much activation energy on the cheap. As I keep saying, this is not about Greece nearly as much as it is about transforming the EU into a stronger union.
Tsipras' "New Deal" is what's coming, regardless of any good cop/bad cop political theater.
In other words, sheeple expectations are being managed for the inevitable arrival of TINA, the ultimate political mandate.
Thatcher told me so herself.
I'm sure Goldman can fix this
That is barely more than half the stimulus that the ECB is going to print starting next month.
No big deal, tell the Greeks to fuck off.
Take the pain now. It will only get worse the longer they put it off. Default is a mathamatical certanty. The political world needs to realize reality.
that's why they teach "new math" in the schools
Go little Greece go! Write off all $400 billion you owe, walk away and start over.
Sign out the Aegean oil fields to the Russians and Chinese, rent them a deep water port next to Italy, and name it "Port Schäuble"
Oddly enough, this might actually work...
Tsipras has Putin and Xinping on speed dial. Russia and Greece are traditional allies and share Orthodox values... it's an easy fit if Greece gets over the Western MSM "stigma" of Russia today being the USSR... which was not Russian at all.
YOU ARE LORD AND MASTER OF ALL EUROPE NKW GREECE!
THE TIME FOR FULL RETARD IS NOW!!!!!!!
Not all $400 billion, just $380. That way they can say they paid it off!
Greee and Russia were allies as full fledged comunist governments. It seems that Tsipras is determined to return to the full communist system and increasing ties with Russian totalitarian state will be a tell.
The Bolshevik revolution/communism has nothing to do with the current Russian federation. Communism was imposed on Russia by "outside" influences. If you don't understand that then there is no point in discussing further.
When did Greece have a commie government? The year is enough, enquiring minds want to know...
Approve or reject our request! And send us an email.
Wait a minute.... Don't the Germans still build a bad-assed tank or two?
Yeah Greece baby, I got your "Nein!" for ya'!
If it´s such a good deal, why all the BS even visiting Europe? Just do it. The only reason why they are not is because they have no clue how to proceed by themselves. If they had a solid plan, it would already be in effect. They are playing poker with a shitty poker face and have gone all-in with almost no stack. Good luck.
Greece has already declared it wants to stay in the Euro and most Greeks support this. This means they don't have the option of walking away and the EU has all the leverage. Eventually the Greeks will compromise and this "systemic risk" will disappear.
What benefit is there to staying in the Euro, for Greece?
Purchasing power of the Euro. If Greece went back to its own currency, it would devalue massively against the Euro and their standard of living would decline substantially. While this would lead to more people employed, not much use haaving a job when the currency doesn't buy much. On the whole, leaving the EU is a net negative for Greece.
BULLSHIT! They don't need the Euro.
This is a new version of MDB, I'm pretty sure. You've been punk'd.
SSS, the Euro has RUINED Greece you fucking idiot!
Why would the Greeks want to stay enslaved to the EU banksters who have put shackles on them?
DUUUHHH!
The Greeks ruined Greece.
I call silver shorter MDB's little brother.. The name alone is provocative here for a reason.. bravo, real sarc that causes thought is back..
But have they ever been seen in the same room at the same time?
Yes, but you really don't want to know what they were doing there.
So, why would a sovereign Greek currency "devalue massively against the Euro"? I didn't see that explanation in there.
And for the Greeks, "their standard of living would decline substantially". Really? I don['t know if I understand that one. I think it was Ross Perot who said, Well, when you're on the bottom, there's nowhere to go but up."
It would devalue because no investor in his right mind would buy any Drachma. Why not? To put it simple because the greek economy sucks balls. Why did they need "bailouts" in the first place? Because they did well economically? I guess not.
Exporters would benefit of a sovereign national currency, everyone else probably wouldn't really. That's also the reason they didn't do it yet, I mean if it's so amazing to leave the EUR, why not just fuckin' go ahead and do it? And I will short your fucking joke currency into oblivion. I double dare you
Greeks don't want to leave EZ because they get several billion EUD a year in direct subsidies, outside of whatever financing assistance has been made available.
Would you put your money in a currency backed by Greece whose economy would be decimated after the banking system collapses? or the Euro backed by Germany and other wealthy and stable countries?
Pretty obvious the Greek currency would be worth a fraction of a Euro. Given a devalued currency, most of the food and energy imports becomes expensive which means more of their pay going to the basics and thus a reduced standard of living.
"or the Euro backed by Germany and other wealthy and stable countries?"
Which are the stable countries, again? I'm out of the loop on that one...
IF they have offshore oil/gas and IF they can control those with the help of Putin, I will buy Drachmas..
Nice dp's I never said you had to buy Drachmas, ha...
Greece can tax and operate in any currency they wish. They can pay in any currency they wish.
So really its only about debt. Remove the debt and the government can still do all the things a government does just with less debt.
Oh my god ... ekm is back
Purchasing power only works as a concept if you got money coming in; not endlessly going out.
It's like telling a poor guy he can be employed with drachmas or unemployed with Euros. Pick.
I think you're misunderstanding this situation.
1. Greece wants to continue in the Euro scheme... if it gets what it wants.
2. If Greece is unsatisifed with the terms of the Euro scheme, they can go to Russia/China and set up bilateral trade in their local respective currencies. This would support the Greek currency.
3. The purchasing power of the Euro would be significantly devalued in a Grexit scenario, which on a relative value basis, would also be supportive of the Greek currency.
Not to mention, just how totally fucked the US is going to be with that strong of a USD relative to the Euro. We might end up looking at Greece as being a preferable living situation... at least they have nice weather.
Greece accounts for less than 2% of the Euro GDP. There might be short term panic (easily managed), but otherwise no serious consequences.
You got it, especially since Lehman was a lot larger than Greece. I can't possibly see a problem. Oh, and what was that Long Term Capital shit I seem to remember? This whole mess is more tangled than the coffee cans of wrigglers I fished with as a kid. Every fart is amplified into multiple tornadoes.
eeeeeaaaaahhhhhh! wrong again...I think we are all missing the underlying point here this whole system is based on faith we have a faith based money system even moreso than a debt based system. this is a highly religious institution this art of the money changers! If greece can simply walk away from its debt well why cant we all do it why do we have to pay enormous un payable debts we are not immortal we are all going to die anywy i should just pay you back your predatory lending scheme cuz you say so??? If greece can just walk away they are walking away from the "faith" so like a muslim converting to christanity is subject to being beheaded, crucified, stoned or burned to death...one must not leave the faith!
What are the dubious advantages of staying in the Euro zone ?
A wonderful opportunity to be exploited by the EU bankers for more than one lifetime possible forever .
More sacrifices , unemployment , decaying social services , social unrest .
Greece will be sold out in bits an pieces to the multinationals including the Pathenon that it could be taken apart and re- built somewhere else
The standard of living of the Greek populations will revert to the times of ww2 .
The joung people will be forced to migrate to neighbor countries or overseas .
If the Greek people want a different world , the choice is simple ...... kick out the troika and the EU and the Euro . The price is too high !
Security. Social stability. It is quite possible that if Greece left the Euro Zone it would be taken over by the military. There would cease to be democracy.
Greece is a small country. They like being part of something bigger. They like to use the Euro. Going back to the drachma would be just that to them. Going backwards.
I upped you. But consider the EU wants Greece to stay too. This "brinkmanship" which has been on display is for only for political purposes. The new Greek gov needs to show they ment what they said to win the election. The EU ministers are using this opportunity as a parlor show to warn the important players how this can be handled.
In the end, there will be an agreement since both sides want one.
No they don't, the EU wants Greece out of the EU, but they can't afford the pain it will cause, not just economically, but politically as well. How strong can a union be if this is all it takes to break it. What happens when Germany decides the costs of staying are higher than the costs of going?
The people that truly matter want more integration, not less. Everything that's happening right now (politicos blowing hot air) is geared to create the mandate to achieve this. Like all political posturing, this is nothing but a side-show in order to setup the stage for the main event.
I'd guess this was the plan from the day Greece was invited into the EU.
LOL!!! County and people "declare" all kinds of shit. You talk about "risk" in a world where there is no mechanism for true price discovery so all the counterparty risk is hidden!!!
You are a first class useful idiot. If everyone wants greece to stay in the E.U., then someone has to pay, period.
Yes there will probably be another debt restructuring. It is you doomers who think the world is coming to an end that have been consistently wrong. The EU is permanent but maybe it will be less powerful with the rise of fringe political parties.
Where do I say that "the world is coming to an end"?
It's you morons who can NOT read and comprehend.
With great risk comes the potential for great reward. It has been this way since the dawn of time idiot.
Interesting times with several interesting opportunities you stupid fuck.
GS is suggesting puts to their clients as a bet to no agreement being reached?
There you have it - - confirmation that some kind of agreement Will be reached to kick the can down the road for a few more months.
Oh dear, what should I do? Loan a deadbeat socialist more money or watch them twist? Dilemma, dilemma... NOT!
Yes!!! Let the Greeks "fix" Greece!!!!!!
Paging former Goldman Sachs employee Mario Draghi, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are on line one!!!
Will laugh my ass off if those who should know better(hello ZH'ers), get slaughtered in this. To spend years on this site learning how fragile the system is, then get creamed anyway would be too funny, to watch from afar.
Don't worry, shorting will be made illegal, again. It's when "selling" becomes illegal that makes me nervous...
I wouldn't assume there'll be time to even sell, legal or not. HFT......
CARPENTER 1 -, the time to sell is BEFORE you NEED to sell. Go Rothschild and "SELL TOO EARLY", cause you cant dance near the door without getting sucked into the vortex when the wall caves in.
Will be laughing MY ass off when brainwashed idiots like you are cowering under your beds and people like us are prepared for the inevitable....
I have been in the midst of a country collapsing, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. you will shit your pants as real apex types are cutting you to pieces.
Depends on how you prepare, what you're preparing for, and most importantly, where you are located.
Location means having clear fields of fire, and enough lead on hand to keep them clear. Being prepared means squat if you can't defend it, or carry it on the run.
And plenty of people who are with you.....that's the real rub. ...you can be armed to the teeth with a great location but without an adequate size force on your side it will be all for naught. the whole prepper movement misses this point routinely.
Not the whole, just the idiots on TV.
Let Greeks fix and run their own country?? You terrrist!
/s
ice(fuck the bankers)land
Germany just told greece to fuck off
they should better say that to its greek's liabilities :)
I think you have it wrong....Greece just told Germany to shit or get off the pot!
"you shut up!!!"
"NO, you shut up!!!"
"Oh yeah?! I'll punch myself in the face. See how you like that!"
i liked how they shaved the phony paper prices of Gold and Silver on this news and the open in New York...
GABRIEL: `WE HAVE REASONS WHY CAN'T SAY YES TO GREEK PROPOSALS'
5 hours later...
GABRIEL: `WE HAVE REASONS WHY CAN'T SAY NO TO GREEK PROPOSALS'
So tried of all the back and forth. Greece should just exit the damn thing and let the chips fall where they may. Or Germany should agree to pony up the cash. Either way, someone needs to do something instead of running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
That wouldn't be very European.
Greek drama is the norm. Enjoy the show.
And it is a fun one to watch. We still have 2 weeks of this left. Oh the anticipation...........
When they break out the nail guns we will know its serious.
Dup
Fixed it
Make it easy on yourself, mr Schaeuble
http://mikeduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/warden-norton-shawshank.jpg
"His Judgment cometh and that right soon."
When a deal is reached before the weekend watch equities surge again. This is a containable crisis.
As predicted.
Indices should be all green soon!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
yep, and oild and pms and anything real gets further beat up ... never gets old
A greek explains the crisis: LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvl9N9GdraQ
German nazi snowmonkey schnitzelface ! LOL
OT but these National Security Orders are Illegal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEXT_s-dLL8
lol what part of "no" didnt the greeks understand? what a bunch of dumbasses...oh this is the redline...hmm or maybe this other is the redline....did we say red? we meant blue.
The negotiating is all over the language of the next loan. There will be another loan, it just needs to be descibed in a way that gives both sides political cover. Something like, "Enhanced Secured No Strings Attached (Except a Few) Non-Bailout, Bailout Programme"
The "Pay when you can but hey, don't stress it, but this ain't a default" loan?
Greece needs to ask for moar. If the EU can conjour up a trillion out of nothing then they can certainly do another trillion specifically for Greece. It ain't real money anyway.
Greece is in no position to dictate terms. They are junkies trying to get a fix. If there is one thing you can count on junkies to do is suck you off the instant they think they can get another fix. Nobody respects junkies.
The Greeks aren't the only junkies. We all crave the stability of business as usual.
How right you are.
Problem is, the status quo is currently unsustainable because no matter how clever a system you design, their is one variable that can never be manipulated, hedged, altered, or converted: Time.
schauble = isis
https://twitter.com/KallergisK/status/568397988491497472/photo/1
Single currency uniting multiple and disparate cultures, what could possibly go wrong?
The EU dictatorship has been exposed in recent months for what it really is. Sovereign nations have allowed their corrupt leaders to sign up to a system in which non-elected bureaucrats now make laws which a completely disenfranchised electorate cannot challenge. What is more, Sovereign States can no longer challenge these dictats; not now not ever.
At this moment these same bureaucrats are negotiating the TransAtlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
(TTIP) in complete secrecy. Even MEPs have to sign an agreement not to divulge details of this agreement.
92% of interested bodies who are parties to the talks are Corporate Lobbyists. Only 4% are from public interest groups. If allowed to go through, this Treaty will be a grotesque stitch up, which will place the majority of EU citizens into servitude over time. It must be resisted at all costs.
Greek govt: reject our offer of punting for 6 months so that we can blame you for the eventually collapse. Please! These people might realize we're a one trick pony and never had a plan
I've never claimed to be a financial expert but I do have a bit of common sense and logic on my side.....regardless of whether the EU accepts or rejects Greece's offer, the Greeks are still broke and will not be unbroke for the forseeable future. So even if Germany gets what they want and Greece gets their extenstion denied, if they have no money, they cannot pay....so how's that a win for Germany and/or the EU?
And if Greece gets their way and get an extension, how is this whole play not going to be repeated in 6 months when the extension expires and Greece still has no money?
Greece is broke right now, they'll be broke in 6 months, they'll still be broke 6 years from now.....so what is all the fuss about in terms of whether they cannot pay now or cannot pay 6 months from now?
Power and money has never walked the path of common sense. No ordinary individual knows exactly how these deals were struck in the first place, since Greece was termed a third-world country back when they entered the Eurozone. News crumbs are usually given to the public whilst the juicy steak is devoured under the table.
"so what is all the fuss about in terms of whether they cannot pay now or cannot pay 6 months from now?"
Answer:
"Is there anyone here we can steal from? If so "loan" them more money."
"If not, detonate it, so that we can steal from folks off of that move, too."
The main goal: Introduction of Capital Flow Controls. In the past, every transfer of money into the country was neither invested nor consumed in Greece. Instead, it leaked out to other places (e.g. to Real Estate Property in London). This is the main reason for the blow up of debt: €110 Bill. in 2010, now €320 Bill. Incredible.
The Greek thing was a big fraud. It has to come to an end (finally and long wished!)
Greece is bankrupt (has been for sometime) - the difference is that it is the Greeks that are admitting it now (Varoufakis) and the eurocrats that want to pretend and extend the "bailout" - will REALITY carry the day this time?
A loss of $270 Billion, some of which is covered by derivatives ? That is only the equivalent of 3 months FED QE printing. Those Germans are stuborn as hell which led to their defeat in WWI and WWII. Come on Merkel, give a little to those Greek beggers, or lose a nice place for fat Germans to enjoy holidays and vacations. Otherwise Spain, Italy, Portugal will be next and another defeat for Germany. The US, on the other hand, has real problems with 18 Trillion in debt that can never be paid back without massive hyberinflation that would lead to double digit interest rates and subsequent stock market collapse including entire Banker Ponzi scheme
Wait, if the US pays down a significant portion of that $18 trillion debt it will lead to hyperinflation? Are you saying then that debt doesn't matter, or more precisely, that this debt monster is really not that scary?
Only way to pay off existing debt is through;
Real economic growth in 4+% range with fiscal surpluses----highly unlikely with only 2 in recent history(1 Eisenhower,1 Clinton) In reality global economy is experiencing a slowdown after massive printing, stimulative interest rates and credit
Through inflation which lowers value of past deficits----traditional method advocated by Keynsians. Problem is it would require an inflation rate of more than 10% which in turn trigger higher interest rates thus impacting stock market valuations, business lending and cutting off growth. Higher interest rates would also make ii difficult to payoff roleover debt
Third possibility is default leading to deflation but an opportunity to rebuild---losses would be felt by evryone especially those holding devalued currency and assets.
Having a reserve currency helps by exporting ill effects of deficits and ability to recycle any account surpluses which are now experienced only by Germany, China and a few smaller emerging markets. Unfortunatly, without war, the US can no longer create surpluses even with revival of domestic energy production.
It seems developing economies are in trouble because they experienced growth on a debt/consumption model which is finite and now must face tough choices. The Greeces of the world will be the first to feel the pain
The traditional method of inflating away the debt no longer works in a socialist entitlement system. The off balance sheet liabilities of the government backed pension, welfare, and healthcare entitlements are many multiples of the reported debt outstanding. Inflation increases the size of the larger off balance sheet liabilities faster than it reduces the value of the on balance sheet debt instruments.
Just a small question . What would happen if they just defai=ult on their debt AND stay in the Euro ?
Just a small question . What would happen if they just default on their debt AND stay in the Euro ?
France's old ex-President, Guiscard d'Estaing, has just advised "those stupid incompetent Eurocrats" to allow Greece to Grexit in a "friendly manner" and devalue their currency.
Obviously, Germany WILL NOT let Greece stay in Euro if Greece defaults.
Apart the fact that Greece will be much more competitive if it has a devalued Drachma as money.
Only issue : who will bank roll Greece once it has defaulted ? Not the EU for sure as sour pussies with whining banks.
Maybe someone outside the EU. Guiscard feels a friendly exit means that EZ banks and leaders still allow lending to Greece even after default.
Now DAT... will have Schauble climbing up the Brussels Commisssion's wall curtains !
Obviously, Germnay WILL NOT let Greece stay in Euro if Greece defaults.
The treaties don't allow an exit and Germany has no legal ground to "force Greece" out . So I don't see how they will do that. Greece may not be allowed to take part in the Eurogroup meetings and will lose all voting rights - but I guess the y don't care - :)
Apart the fact that Greece will be much more competitive if it has a devalued Drachma as money.
Greece has got a primary budget surplus. So if they don't pay their debt they should have enough money to get going and to do some of their reforms. And once the economy improves they still can negociate on the "old" debt - but from a much stronger position -
This is certainly something Schauble has to take into account and as u say their will always be someone to lend to them.
"Apart the fact that Greece will be much more competitive if it has a devalued Drachma"
Competitive with what?
How does a currency devaluation work for a country with no manufacturing / export base?
Cheaper hookers for tourists?
Competitive with the Mexican peso?
I like cheap hookers.
Stick with the Mexican variety - much more appealling than Nana Mouskouri and her ilk.
essentially it makes greek agricultural and tourism industries export more.
And it makes multinationals looking for cheap labour invest more.
That's the basic building block for Greece.
It does have a maritime tradition which will be used; aka ports and infrastructure; to enter EU of which it stays member.
Export tourism - great plan. ;-)
Is Greece a net producer of FOOD? or
Does it import more than it exports?
Is it in total a net importer or exporter?
Devalue your currency - the things you import cost more - you sell your stuff for less -
The more you devalue the worse off you are.
Plus no company wants to locate in a country that is as fucked up as Greece.
You think any major company wants to jump into a situation and locate a major facility in a country where your taxes are going no where but UP UP UP as the country takes a hard left turn into even more socialism?
I don't see how you can come to these conclusions.
How does a currency devaluation work for a country with no manufacturing / export base?...
I don't know, but it seems to be doing alright for Obama.
One would think adding 3000million frns a day for the last 6 years would "devalue" US curency, but our dream continues, why can't theirs?
all-priced-in,
Good point.
Does it matter if a Greek gets paid in drachma worth 0.6 euro or is paid only 0.6 euro?
In both cases the resolution is that Greeks have lower living standards to match the lower productivity.
Many ways to try to address that problem, most related to removing socialist controls and regulations.
"What would happen if they just default on their debt AND stay in the Euro ?"
- Spain/Portugal/Ireland/Italy may default too.
- Euro = tailspin.
- EU = tailspin.
- EU-crats run for the trees.
EU-crats should avoid trees.
You can hang ropes from trees...
I'll supply the rope (!)