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It's Official: Global Economy Back In Contraction For First Time Since 2012 According To Goldman
After spending the past year deteriorating with each passing month, as global acceleration dipped decidedly in the negative camp, the only thing that kept the Goldman Global Leading Indicator "swirlogram" somewhat buoyant was that "Growth" measured in absolute terms had remained slightly positive. Not any more: according to Goldman's latest global economic read, the world is now officially in contraction, following a sharp plunge in both acceleration and growth in February.
As the far simpler 2-D chart below shows, the Goldman GLI mometum indicator is now below 0 for the first time since 2012. It also shows what the momentum of the Global Leading Indicator looks like compared to Global industrial production, which is sure to follow below the X-axis in the coming weeks.
What is causing it? Pretty much everything except Initial Claims in the US (which are great for everyone, except the shale states - expect the weakness seen there to spread everywhere in the coming months).
What is the GLI? "The Global Leading Indicator (GLI) is a Goldman Sachs proprietary indicator that is meant to provide an early signal of the global industrial cycle on a monthly basis. There is an Advanced reading for each month, released mid-month, followed by the Final reading, released on the first business day of the following month. The GLI was introduced in 2002 and has been revised twice since then, in 2006 and 2010."
Finally, some parting words from Goldman's Noah Weisberger:
The February Advanced GLI came in at 1.8%yoy, down from last month’s reading of 2.0%yoy. February Advanced Momentum fell to just slightly under zero, after remaining positive but in decline for seven months. With Momentum slightly negative, the GLI falls into the ‘Contraction’ phase.
Components weak
Six of the seven Advanced GLI components have worsened in February so far. The two market-based gauges – the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index® and AUD and CAD TWI aggregate component – continued to decline this month. The Philadelphia Fed headline print (the Advanced proxy for the Global PMI) declined for a third month following its two-decade high of 40.2 in November. The volatile Baltic Dry Index also decreased for a third month. The Philly Fed New Orders less Inventories component and the University of Michigan survey (an early proxy for our Consumer Confidence aggregate) also deteriorated this month. The sole improving component in the Advanced GLI this month was US Initial Jobless Claims.
Into ‘Contraction’ side of the Contraction-Slowdown border
The February Advanced GLI locates the global industrial cycle in the ‘Contraction’ phase, which is characterised by negative and decreasing momentum. This follows last month’s Final GLI, which indicated that the GLI was still in ‘Slowdown
How much longer the rigged, HFT and central bank-manipulated "markets" can continue to ignore what is now a global contraction (from which the US is now clearly not decoupling courtesy of the 30 out of 35 economic misses just in February following today's latest Philly Fed miss) is anyone's guess.
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This is bullish, right?
DavidC
Oh fuck!
If that's not ringing the bell at the top..
Then what is!?
No Jobs, does not equal a recovery.
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Was official long before a corrupt and crooked-ass bank said so. Not sure what makes Goldmans' press releases "official" now on ZH?
Thank God Yellen didn't raise interest rates and exercised caution in all her affairs. /sarc
QE4 coming to a printing press near you.
CNTL/P
Fed'll tighten because things are shitty, yo!
Gotta love the Swami-O-Grams. So simple even Uncle Knukies can understands 'em.
Pull-out. Eject ! Eject ! Eject !!
You know what they call a guy who uses the pull out method? Daddy.
Contraction? Guess that explains BDI and CAT. And if you are wondering which came first, the chicken or the egg, then these observations from 3+ years ago is a good read :
http://web.archive.org/web/20111112074159/http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
QE is getting a bit stale. Don't be surprised if they try something different, and by different, I mean printing money and doing something different with it than buying shit paper from the banks and monetizing the debt by using the primary dealers as straw purchasers. I fucking hate neo-Keynesians.
I've been saying that for years. Different = new name and/or different CB. This one is ECB and all the funny names they use for the SAME THING, ie hitting ctr-p to buy junk paper from insolvent banks and nations.
Sheeple are easy to swindle. Just give it a new name to confuse them.
Are you intentionally ignoring the fact that GS pretty much runs the world?
..and make it up as they go.
fiat allows fabrication if it 'sells'.
I'm free, free fallin'
http://www.metrolyrics.com/free-fallin-lyrics-tom-petty.html
Come on, Timmmmaaaaaaaay.
Of course, GS had to get all of their shorts and puts in place BEFORE making a press release like this.
It's only right!
Lloyd has to be able to feed his family. ...
And that folks is why you hear the incessant beating of the drums of war.
pods
And those drums will drown out the whispers that the FED will be buying the S&P directly in short order :-) Can't wait to hear the bullshit regarding Mr Yellen's "temporary" extraordinary measures...
I didn't think the FED would really go full retard, but if they keep rates at zero knowing what's coming, then there mandate is truly down to a single pillar. Keep the stock markets levitated at all costs. But to do it there going to have chaos of rapidly inflating and bursting bubbles everywhere else. RE, energy, food it's All gonna be one big hyper-coaster as hot money flows in and out of bubblicious assets and commodities, but always back to the new "safe haven" of the S&P. The FED will have made stocks the most boring investment imaginable while chaos reigns everywhere else.
Get ready for Hell! LOL ;-)
"it's All gonna be one big hyper-coaster as hot fiat dies" - fixed. Don't think beyond this, period.
"Full faith and credit" -- tick tock.
What we need is a fake/manufactured alien invasion. With this false flag against the earth, we can convince millions of young people to sacrifice their lives for earth by fighting the aliens. This will be used to justify a massive expansion of the world spacecraft industry, as well as weaponization of those spacecraft. Of course, the young people who volunteer to defend earth don't need to know until they're 5 million miles away and out of fuel/power that their space fighter is actually just a space seed, intended to be used to shed extra human lives into space. Maybe in a few thousand years the next Kahn Noonian Singh will show up. Meanwhile, living conditions on Earth will improve with fewer people, future liabilities to people are reduced in impact due to fewer young people existing, etc...
Is this a novel I read and forgot about?
Extracts from Enders Game and The "Guide", with liberty. The alien angle is a project long in the works - a manufactured threat from the supersystem. Cower down, UN please save us.
Hrm... In Enders Game, the aliens were real, the lie was about the incoming invasion. What if you could simply convince normal, living people on the streets that aliens were attacking earth, even though they were not? All you need are horrendous casualty lists from combat, and some sufficiently brain-fried "survivors" recounting their confused horror... and you've got a worldwide population that wants to work their asses off, sacrifice their lives, all for a lie.
Meh, probably easier to just pick a fight with the neighbor.
i "get it" and all, just sayin... I do like the idea of loading all the reptiles on a spaceship and sending them off, i'll take my chances with the public phone booths or whatever... I wouldn't have knowingly come to live on this rock, and I'll take that up with the Big Guy should the chance arise.
starship troopers
Try Kornbluth's The Marching Morons. ^_^
Did you call? :)
Well it is one of two things,
- bullish
- super mega mega bullish
Excellent news, keep it up
the plebs have lived this all along even if they are ignorant of the fact
New 9/11 Audio: FAA employees say Secret Service told them “Flight 93 hit Camp David”
9/11 Truth: The NIST “no molten metal” guy posing by steel with unexplained melting (PHOTOS)
MSM, please please tell us it ain't so. We know you can do it ;-)
I love the swirlogram. It's the best way of saying: "See, it's true because I made a graph".
It's a beautiful meme.
It spins as it flushes.
(does it go counter-clockwise when below the "equator" ? maye if the business cycle changes)
The US will be the engine of global growth! We just need to print moar.
/facepalm / You cant make this shit up folks...
Run Warren Run to open Hiawatha office Mondayhttp://www.kcrg.com/subject/news/politics/run-warren-run-to-open-hiawath...
AH, so obviously we need to redouble the money printing...get cracking Mr Yellin!
buy stawks....
"that's all Folks..."
Porky Pig
swillogram
GLI - New State-Of-The-Art WHore Babylon Thermal Koochie Transducer
Everybody keeps pointing at oil as the elephant in the room but all the industials are starting to crack and civilization's foundations are crumbling. It is too late to stop the fall but a few(very few) are getting ready to ride it out. Meanwhile the band is playing a catchy tune.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ntLsElbW9Xo
Scene at 1:17 to be repeated in a town near you.
It's about time we get some seriously good news! The street will eat this up!
The un-fed will just step up their buying, boosting the DOW onward and upward! It's always a win-win, when you run the machine!
Pure fucking fantasy, but it sells!
Blame the Chinese
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/Year-of-the-Sheep-...
I blame Russia...not sure why, but it seems to be getting the blame for everything lately, even the weather, so it must be to blame for the world economy contracting as well.
I blame Russia...not sure why, but it seems to be getting the blame for everything lately, even the weather, so it must be to blame for the world economy contracting as well.
Liberals like sheep.
Apparently so are "Conservatives."
Both are 'Crony'...
Green shoots, golden 'chutes.
Pardon my stupidity but how is the Belgian and Netherland Manufacturing survey even a data point that's considered?
Tells us how many handicaped the OOM is employing.
I think they print Euros in Belgium, and the Netherlands is the Las Vegas of hookers and blow (think stawks)
The 1/2 life of PBoC RRR reductions and rate cuts is running on fumes... Get to work Mr. Draghi.
The ECB should pump 2 trillion euros into the ponzi. </sarc>
Who needs an economy?! We have PRINTED prosperity now!
Folks are fucked.
we fucked some folks
It's official, because the Vampire Squid with its blood funnel latched onto the face of humanity says so!
Goldman knows the Fed aint rais'n rates this year.
And now you know it too.
Today's the day ZHers! I can feel it this time. The world WILL blow up today. Then you can all rejoice.
If not, well, better luck tomorrow.
Been a long time since my last swirlogram fix...thanks for that...I needed it.
Goldman Sachs the 'Financial arm' of MIC and largest sponsor of State Terrorism.
Well this is good to know. Thanks goldman!
It's all going according to plan. Global currency and ban on cash in 3...2...1...
Swirlogram my ass thats a BLACK HOLE! Run for your life!
The prudent financial decision is to raise rates and expedite QE to stimulate financial assets. We get a contraction followed by a flight to yield. The slight panic drives a large portion of the private banking sector into t-bonds yet also furthers speculation in the market due to QE resulting in new all time highs. Inflation at 2% is low. By raising rates and reintroducing QE we can target a higher inflation rate of 5-6%. This is beneficial for the working class and the rich.
G.S swirl-O-gram> Pictures
Gave me GF a swirlogram..... Twice in one night.
Thanks for this tidbit, GSachs!
Contractionary recovery? #contractovery
So this was kind of like a "Dead Cat Bounce" - just that the Cat bloated up instead of popping and splattering while absorbing the intial impact, was it?