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Peak "Grexit"?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman recently warned that they are "more worried than we have been since the start of the Euro area crisis," and judging by the extraordinary surge in "Grexit" headlines, it appears this time is different from 2012...

With tomorrow appearing like "G"-Day, we wonder if this is indeed 'peak Grexit' or if this is the start of something different?

Source: Bloomberg

 

and with the "Take It Or Leave It" ultimatum from Greece now, we suspect - also as Goldman warned - Given the systemic nature of the ‘shock’, we doubt that even the major markets would be unaffected.

 

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Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:26 | 5806521 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Meaning: It might actually happen this time?...

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:30 | 5806529 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Tsiparas wasn't in charge before so we'll see if the economic hit men scare him bad enough to cave.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:31 | 5806535 Self-enslavement
Self-enslavement's picture

Golden Dawn will take care of the parasites. Until then, Greece will continue to be the host to the blood suckers.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:38 | 5806552 flacon
flacon's picture

Grexit is probably bullish for the markets because they can now continue this momentum higher without the risk of Greece any more. If Greece doesn't exit the Euro then this would be a bullish sign for the markets because they can now continue this momentum higher without the risk of Greece any more. Buy this February dip and add some SPY puts as a precaution to a non Greekexit exit of Greece staying in the Euro. Why? Because Algos. 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:39 | 5806558 Statetheist
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In/out, up/down, bullish either way!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:49 | 5806579 Soul Glow
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Why ask why try bud dry!

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 01:16 | 5806756 sodbuster
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I'm hopeful the Greeks grow a pair, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 08:57 | 5807323 The Black Bishop
The Black Bishop's picture

They dont really need bigger balls, they just need to use common sense. An exit from the Euro enables them almost complete control over their state finances again. Sure, it will be painful to transition to a new currency, but both Russia and China are eager to help out in order to crack the EU.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:21 | 5807003 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

I suspect the rigged markets has a little to nothing to do with what's going on in Greece or anywhere else. The only thing that can shake the 'markets' is a systemic failure such as euro collapse. But in this case it won't be the markets but the manipulators rigging the markets who'll be shaken off.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:32 | 5806538 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Greece is the word...
(Until Italy experiences Euro fatigue. Then Spain, and so on...)

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 01:30 | 5806773 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

This is the life of illusion
Wrapped up in trouble, laced with confusion
What are we doing here?

We take pressure and we throw away
Conventionality belongs to yesterday
There is a chance, we can make it so far
We start believing now that we can be who we are

Grease is the word
Grease is the word, is the word that you heard
It's got groove, it's got meaning
Grease is the time, is the place, is the motion
Now, Grease is the way we are feeling

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:33 | 5806541 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

they will never let Putin have Greece and Ukraine. this is a dream that some country would actually have to be responsible for its financial house. but you know xBernie Madoff thought the same thing I am sure

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 02:22 | 5806843 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

youre dreaming...and who the hell is "THEY" and how will they stop him?

I think Right Sektor are about to take over from Porky-who may wind up dead if he doesnt get out-he has already sent his family elsewhere

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:41 | 5806559 JoeySandwiches
JoeySandwiches's picture

Seems like the more articles hyping up a Grexit, the more likely it's not happening.  Like when Syriza had enough support that their win was a forgone conclusion, I didn't see many headlines hyping up the Greek elections.

Once they've lost control of the situation they either drop the story, or tell soothing tales of why it doesn't matter. Anything to avoid a panic.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 00:05 | 5806624 flacon
flacon's picture

Yes but somebody is going to have egg all over their ethnic face, whether it be Varufakis or Merkel. No worries though, elections can always be re-bought at a later time. ... honestly though, something about the Greeks tells me that "this time it's different". If the Greek politicians cave in I'm sure the Greek population will pubically execute them on Syntigma square and hang the logos of all the banks around their dead heads. 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 05:01 | 5806985 RadioactiveRant
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This is my worry if they cave, the Greeks either lose faith in democracy and you get the start of a Med-Spring, or they lurch towards the Nazi Golden Dawn. Either is not good.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 01:11 | 5806749 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Seems like Euro was saved last time by 1) Bernanke and 2) nonstop short-squeezes.

 

Kerry tries to defend spokeswoman, digs deeper hole

http://tinyurl.com/kl3myul

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:18 | 5807057 new game
new game's picture

PEAK FIAT!

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:19 | 5807059 new game
new game's picture

PEAK SHEEP

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:21 | 5807061 new game
new game's picture

PEAK BULLSHIT (BULLISH)

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:22 | 5807064 new game
new game's picture

PEAK TERROR(MOAR WAR)

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:29 | 5807079 3Wishes
3Wishes's picture

No way, the dumb smucks US Tax payer will foot the bill.

 

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:28 | 5806526 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I've brought up Greece to strangers and they say, "I don't care."

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:31 | 5806534 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

What do you expect? It's the "Year of the Sheep"...

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 00:49 | 5806715 kiwimail
kiwimail's picture

Correction, its the century of the sheep!

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 01:11 | 5806751 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

They will care when it turns their 401k into a 201k

 

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:30 | 5806530 ArtOfLife
ArtOfLife's picture

Jan 2012 was a great time to buy stocks, let's hope it happens again!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:36 | 5806551 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Im just bored as fuck. Oh look, another 330pm ramp. que suprise!  Lets get some excitement in these markets.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:11 | 5807054 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

i have a theory that the 3.30 ramp is due to that being the hour when kids get home from school. They jump on their tablets and PC's , having cracked their parents online bank accounts, and buy stawx 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 23:42 | 5806563 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

It is different this time-(scratch sound)

 

 

 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 01:37 | 5806786 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The thing that is different this time is that I'm 3 1/2 solar years older bitchez. You can fool me once, but none of the Bushes can figure out what to say next, and this F'n time I'm BTFD.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 02:15 | 5806838 Jano
Jano's picture

I wonder, when will start the putsch ala Kiev and colonel junta usurps the power

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 02:43 | 5806878 Mac Avelli
Mac Avelli's picture

I'v been waiting so long for something big to happen, and the world just keeps grinding on. 

"Not with a bang, but with a whimper" 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 02:55 | 5806881 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

90% chance that one side, or the other caves in to the other's demands.  Goldman must know this, and is probably taking a position.

There is simply too much heat and too many people eyeballing this situation for the politicians to publicly fall on their swords.  They will figure out a "solution" and everyone will be high-fiving and acting like they did good (See: Gordon Brown's "I saved the world.")

This is just one weak link in a poorly forged chain and I am going to bet that the link that breaks won't be Greece.  It is never the thing that you see coming that gets you.

Edit: Though a Greek default and a general sov. debt default are mathematically inevitable at some point in the future, so I suppose I could be wrong.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 06:11 | 5807009 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

"Goldman recently warned that they are "more worried than we have been since the start of the Euro area crisis"

Really, Goldman? Are you even more worried than when you falsified Greek financial data in order to get totally unprepared country into the eurozone, which turned out to be the cornerstone of all subsequent troubles and, eventually, the Euro area crisis itself?

I can't believe...

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 08:46 | 5807268 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

C'mon man.. I think that's a little uncalled for.  They were only "doing God's work(*)"

God sure must hate those Greek people.  The European bloc too.

(*) Taking liberal profits at multiple points in this whole saga. 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 03:08 | 5806895 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Seriously, who cares? It's Greece. It has the same population as Ohio. Does anyone wake up wondering what Ohio will do today?

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 03:53 | 5806938 winchester
winchester's picture

ohio is shit, greece is a country,  shoot a country inside the euro zone, the euro die, then dollar die, then total finance die.

 

shoot ohio, who give a fuck outside usa ? noone.... sorry bro, you just a fart, no offence if world is looking at a gay country, but they do have more importance than your frozen shithole, whatever your state of mind, we do not give a fuck about your thoughts :)

 

 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 03:52 | 5806937 ah-ooog-ah
ah-ooog-ah's picture

What's the unit on the vertical axis ?

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 05:34 | 5807004 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

Gallons of Ouzo, I believe.  Though could be liters.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 04:25 | 5806966 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Funny thing  - the Germans have been paying for "Solidarity" - well next year will mark the 25th anniversary of this *TEMPORARY* tax of 5.5% for supporting the Eastern side of Germany and whatever else pork projects the Politicians might dream up.

 

And people wonder why the Germans are a bit grumpy about "Solidarity" with Greeks who allegedly don't pay their taxes and aren't interested at all in actually improving their tax collection system...

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/germany-model-economy-du-jour-all-tax-and...

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:37 | 5807084 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

abbe are you interested in improving tax collections?? a group of us here on ZH think shutting down of tax collection is what is needed..and it would show the money printers to all with the curtain of tax "income" is removed. nobody is paying for .gov in the west it is all debt, understand?

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 06:46 | 5807043 Midnight Hour
Midnight Hour's picture

I am just wondering if Deutsche Bank is up for derivatives if Greece defaults? They are know for being the biggest holders off them. In a way the new Greek Government does not have much leeway as they really are broke and have no way out. You never know, your Fed could be warming up the Printing Presses for some real Money, namely $US that are just as worthless as the Euro, but Fools believe in them.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:33 | 5807080 PirateOfBaltimore
PirateOfBaltimore's picture

Nothings going to happen today. Gold and silver are flat. The priced in the status quo that will grind on days ago.

 

I'd love to be wrong though. Just picked up another kilo+ of Ag and oz of Au Last night. 

 

Time to start the fiat bonfire yet? It's fucking cold.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 07:59 | 5807116 saltoafronteira
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G-Day, G-Spot?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 08:07 | 5807133 Badself
Badself's picture

OR it means it is a slow news month....  Maybe we are a bit paranoid since Greece is a tiny insignificant country.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 10:56 | 5807755 Zorrohodge
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now its 4x as many search results for grexit as last time

more interesting is the countries where people are searching (hope this posts correctly! if not http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=grexit )

 

Greece 100

 
Netherlands 17

 
Germany 12

 
United Kingdom 5

 
United States 2

 

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