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Texas Initial Jobless Claims Surge Higher As Continuing Claims Jump Most In 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the 9th week in a row, the smoothed average of initial jobless claims in Texas surged (Other Shale States - PA, ND, and CO also saw a notable rise in claims). While Tennessee's levels were estimated, the broad levels of claims send a mixed message. Initial claims beat expectations, fell from 304k to 283k with the trend now clearly flat since September. However, Continuing Claims jumped 58k to 2.425 million - the biggest jump in 2015, notably missing expectations. The trend of employmenmt has clearly changed...

 

It appears the trend of employment has changed...

 

But The Shale States are suffering... Smoothed average of initial claims (lagged a week)

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:40 | 5802949 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Good thing the shadow of crisis has passed.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:48 | 5802966 philipat
philipat's picture

No problem, BLS can "Seasonally adjust" this. And if that doesn't show +240K+ new jobs in February, they will seasonally adjust the seasonal adjustments.....

Interesting that with all those "Adjustments" during the year, an ACTUAL number is never published. Such an actual number wouldn't make headlines but it might ressaure some folks that they do actually know. Although.......

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:16 | 5803060 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

I agree. The foreshadow of the crisis has passed, the crisis has finally arrived.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:40 | 5803177 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

"green shoots."

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 17:12 | 5805173 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

 

 

2009: "Fed tightens next year"

...

...

2015: "Fed tightens next year"

...

...

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:41 | 5802956 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Texas has gold and tremendous other natural resources.  They should use them to back their own money!!!!!

I'd buy the "Lone Star" anyday!!!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:50 | 5802974 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Fuck Texas. Troopers are fucking deuchbags i'll never go there again.

Let's see............I entered Texas going 2mph over the speed limit and had a trooper coming the opposite direction on a divided highway throw on his lights, slam on the brakes AND drive thru the fucking ditch dividing the lanes and came after me.  After sitting for nearly 15 minutes he comes up to the car and asks to do a search and tells me if I refuse he'll put in some kind of request bullshit and we could wait all day.  I had no reason to refuse.  Little did I know he'd tear the car to fucking pieces including permanet damage to the rear seat.  NO apologies whatsoever.

I hope the fucking mexicans annihilate your fucking asses down there.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:56 | 5802988 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Just fyi.........no I didn't get a speeding ticket.  I did, however, ask what prompted him to pull me over and his response was I was driving the type of car that would be used to transport drugs.  It was a ten year old thunderbird.  

Oh............and then you have to read all the 'don't mess with texeas' bullshit roadsigns every few miles.  Here's an idea fuckwads...........if you want to act like china I just won't go thru your stupid fucking state anymore.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:58 | 5802998 FrankHerbert
FrankHerbert's picture

Texas is the kind of place you visit for vacation, but leave with probation. They're all about that law and order down this way.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:16 | 5803065 negative rates
negative rates's picture

 Well there's a law for unis, and a law for weins, and they aint the same law. They did a spended job writing the textbooks for the country's education, educated us straight into the institution and then went to war over their beliefs. If you want to go to court about it, see you in New York, otherwise we are destine to become a separate and divided nation, we'll trade some beef for brandy one day.    

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:33 | 5803144 Ratbagger
Ratbagger's picture

I have got to leave this State (planet). 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:23 | 5803410 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

No doubt. I'm still trying to get abducted by aliens.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 19:24 | 5813407 Ratbagger
Ratbagger's picture

Well if you're ever successful, let me know how it goes.

 

srs

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:39 | 5803172 cornfritter
cornfritter's picture

Don't worry about the haters, they got their cogs and wheels with no actual product to feed into the machine, hence they fear the demise of the virtual product, namely fake money.  They do have plenty of new age sympathisers in places like Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio.  Also, there are plenty of Americans, of hispanic decent here, mostly hard working, family oriented and liberty minded.  Most of them understand the game, and would help a brother out at need.  There is some corruption, but painting with a broad brush never makes friends, and Texas means "friends", when it's not busy meaning "Taxes".

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:19 | 5803379 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Sounds like CA where poor bastards are spending life in prison for stealing food 3x.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 14:08 | 5804207 Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Texans are nice, polite.

But incredibly stupid.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:57 | 5802994 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

And that is likely only one of a million reasons to despise Texas. It's a shame we took it on as a state. We should have let it be its own thing, and allowed the South to secede in the 1850s.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:20 | 5803069 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

By all means, don't visit, you are still free to do so.  You sound like another whining liberal that is upset about the choices you made.

In addition to Spanish I speak Portuguese.

Evolve or die dumbass (or are you not a "free market" guy after all?)

same as it ever was...

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:21 | 5803400 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

LOL, I made the choice to drive thru a state and get treated like ISIS.

You're an idiot.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 13:36 | 5804071 Stumpy4516
Stumpy4516's picture

What about his post sounds like a whining liberal?  Does objecting to unreasonabe searches make people whiners and liberals?

And what "choices" did he make to have caused this to have occured and be caused by him?

Evolve?  Into accepting this new America (or Texas)?  Holding onto constitutional rights and expectations is refusing to evolve?

You think his objection shows he is not a "free market" guy.  So the cops have a green light to do whatever they want is "free market" and objecting is contrary to "free market".

At one time the people of Texas believed in personal liberties, independence and rights.  They have evolved.

And I bet his experience occured in north or east Texas, not the southern Tejas portion.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:58 | 5803257 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Texass has always been like that. If you had long hair in the 60's and 70's you did not want to go through Texass.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:44 | 5802960 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Steve LIESman: "This just doesn't make any sense, the fundamentals are strong"

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:24 | 5803416 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

Simon Hobbs: "But don't these numbers prove the job market is strengthening?"...wrinkles brow, arches right eyebrow, re-arranges facial features to convey British incredulity at suggestion those numbers might NOT prove this at all...

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:45 | 5802964 Nafets93
Nafets93's picture

Nothing that some credit default swaps or quantitative easing up your ass couldn't fix

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:45 | 5802967 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Lost oil jobs will be the equilvalent to wallstreet as food prices are to inflation. Carry on.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:48 | 5802972 yogibear
yogibear's picture

QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7.... QE-to-infinity is assured.

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:52 | 5802980 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

They probaly have their marketers making a new name for QE.  Such as jobs recovery funding, JRF.  Or something similar fucking stupid.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:56 | 5802991 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

FESP, Future economic stability program. Sounds genuine and caring. I like it. 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 09:59 | 5803000 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Tyler: I read it stated countless times, that QE didn't do anything for the real economy. Yet - you show these charts denoting when QE ended, as if it did indeed have an impact on the real economy. For instance, the "Continuing Claims" chart.

What gives?

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:19 | 5803074 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

IMO the best chart to consider is an overlay of the S&P with the Federal Reserve balance sheet.

Is what it is...

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:21 | 5803084 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

QE doesn't create sustained economic activity (real economic activity) but merely creates demand for things that should never be created/extracted/produced to begin with.

Shale oil and tar sands bitumen being the most obvious in this instance.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:00 | 5803003 wmbz
wmbz's picture

The un-fed could not stop "doing" the QE even if they wanted to, and they don't. They work behind the curtain and only the choosen few really know how much they are doing. This phony fiat scheme has been decades in the making. The USSA is way beyound repair and is eating itself. The national debt can not be repaid and "they" don't even consider it. The rest of the world is decoupling and it is gaining speed.

Forget being painted into a corner... There is no corner.

A large bust up is going to happen, that is a fact. Plenty of 1%ers are very well aware of this.You see what they are doing... stealing hand over fist in plain sight!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:10 | 5803046 Nafets93
Nafets93's picture

A little less people filed for jobless claims?! SELL ALL THE GOLD!

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:55 | 5803244 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Unadjusted, down 44K year over year.  Trend is unchanged for the most part.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 10:59 | 5803268 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

I work at one of the "Oil Field Service company X plans to lay off x,000" companies in Houston.

They are firing people left and right. Tenure of less than a year or 4 months as a new hire wont save you and a lot of good people have been let go.

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:07 | 5803310 flymark311
flymark311's picture

What this 1 year chart doesn't show is the years before it.

Texas has a spike in jobless claims either near the EOY, or beginning of year, every year, since 2008. You can print this chart and put it side-by-side 7 times to see what the data really shows. 

Spurious Correlations.

 

 

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 11:08 | 5803316 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

"For the 9th week in a row, the smoothed average of initial jobless claims in Texas surged (Other Shale States - PA, ND, and CO also saw a notable rise in claims). While Tennessee's levels were estimated, the broad levels of claims send a mixed message."

How did Texas turn into Tennessee in the 2nd sentence of the first paragraph of an article about Texas?

Thu, 02/19/2015 - 14:14 | 5804236 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

To be offset by an increase in part time wetbacks.

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