Beppe Grillo: "The Eurozone Chess Game Enters Its Final Stage: Germany Wins In Three Moves"

Tyler Durden's picture

With everyone's attention focused these days on Greece's Tsipras (and Varoufakis), and also casting concerned glances at Spain's Pablo Iglesias, head of the poll-leading Podemos party which may well be the next Syriza, many have forgotten that Italy has its own "anti-austerity" voice, that of Beppe Grillo, a voice which had been relatively quiet in the recent past. However, judging by his latest blog post, he too will want to be heard in the seaschange in Europe in the aftermath of the Syriza surge and the resultant chaos that has shaken the Eurozone to its core.

From Beppe Grillo's blog

The Euro’s up in smoke

The Eurozone chess game has entered its third and final stage. Germany wins in three moves - Euro, deflation and purchase of public debt by the ECB (QE) – and in the last few years it has found a way to maximise its profits and reduce to zero its risks as Europe’s creditor.

Germany’s risks

Let’s try analysing the problems of the Eurozone as they really are: problems of conflicting interests of creditors and debtors regulated by demand and supply. If you agree to make a loan to your neighbour, you open yourself up to three risks:

  • that he’ll pay you back in a different currency that has perhaps been devalued unless you had a prior agreement about the repayment currency (currency risk);
  • that with the amount you get back, you can buy fewer goods or property (inflation risk);
  • that you don’t even have either of the first two problems because your neighbour simply goes bust and thus you lose everything (capital risk).

How Germany gains

Germany is the Eurozone’s only big creditor with about 600 billion Euro loaned to various countries, most of which are on the periphery of the Eurozone, including Italy. The Euro has given it this enviable status. If you produce lots and you consume and invest very little and you keep domestic wages and prices low, then you’ll always have cheap unconsumed goods to sell to your neighbours. And you might also be able to make money by providing credit that they will probably ask you for so that they can buy your goods that are so cheap and so good. This is Germany’s situation. It has always had this approach to the market economy in European affairs ever since 1870 with its roots in Calvinism. Thus to sell and lend to the countries on the periphery of Europe was always Germany’s preferred economic activity when everything was going well, before the crisis in 2008. Since then its only objective has been to get that credit returned and to protect its purchasing power.

...

Germany’s checkmate

Basically, QE will give Germany the time needed to achieve the final objective needed to get checkmate: to get rid of the national jurisdiction over as much of the debt as possible and thus to reduce its own capital risk as much as possible. Only the debt issued under Italian jurisdiction can be redefined in a new currency and thus could impose losses on foreign creditors, mainly German, via devaluation of the new currency. Today that proportion stands at about 93%. So only 7%, not more than 150 billion of public debt, cannot be redefined and has to be paid by in Euro, in accordance with the contract. Assuming that there’ll be devaluation of 30%, implies that the cost of a Euroexit for Italy in relation to its public debt, would have been no greater than about 50 billion euro before QE. With the de facto QE, this number has gone up to about 80 billion given that if there’s a collapse, the cost of a “haircut” of let’s say 30% on 100 billion government bonds (BTP) that would be bought by the Bank of Italy, would be a cost borne by all of us. In the eyes of a German creditor, restructuring our debt or an exit with the devaluation of the new currency, in fact present the same capital risk.

So, from now on, the only thing that counts for us Italians in the game of "creditor v debtor" is not to lose jurisdiction over our debt, so that we maintain the right to redefine it. This means we get the benefit if we do exit. Germany’s objective is exactly the opposite: remove our jurisdiction over our debt and thus increase the cost of an exit for us and give the advantage to them, thus continuing to protect the interests of the creditors, which is something it’s really good at.

If we wait too long before leaving the Euro, then Germany will get checkmate and after cashing in all the benefits of our entry into the Euro, it will also cash in on the benefits of our exit.

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rpc's picture

Germany will lose 2T EUR if the Euro breaks up, so who is the winner? There will only be losers, but sometime there is no other way. So lets end the ECB.

cossack55's picture

...so who is the winner?

 

Novorossiya

Ghordius's picture

yes, that's the way it's seen, by many, eh? it's all about Novorossiya, and whatever even barely hinders that is the enemy, regardless

just a small reminder: the eurozone is not the EU is not NATO. two countries pushed hard for NATO extension: one is only member of the NATO and the other is of that and the EU

LawsofPhysics's picture

So what?  NATO is becoming more irrelevant every day.  Yes, Novorossiya "wins" here.

Demographics and guns deciding boundaries, again...

Same as it ever was.

Save_America1st's picture

This was envisioned and warned of years ago at the beginning if the euro.  Germany would rise again as the 4th Reich....an economic conquest of Europe rather than a military conquest. Nobody listened.

 

Now its all starting to become crystal fucking clear isn't it...bitchez...

 

giovanni_f's picture

BS. Germany is still occupied, hasn't even a peace treaty. Political elites and media are fully under control by the US.

Pool Shark's picture

 

 

What Beppe is saying is that Italy needs to flip the chessboard over and go home...

 

 

giovanni_f's picture

Beppe is in this respect has no majority. Italians suffered so much from a corrupt and incompetent government - most of them still hope that Germany takes over, believe it or not.

I have been living in this country and have many friends there.

Ghordius's picture

this ^^^^"Beppe is in this respect has no majority "

Thirst Mutilator's picture

 "Political elites and media are fully under control by the US."

 

& the US is controlled by????? Go ahead, say it SAY IT!

maskone909's picture

Wins in three moves...

Just another ivey league elitest douche who compares the struggles of the common man to a chess game. You got that? None of you really matter. Ita just a game to these people.

donsluck's picture

It's nested in the way humans learn, alegory. Total bullshit of course, politics are not chess, corporations are not people, money is not free speech.

SilverIsKing's picture

Whenever I hear the words Beppe Grillo, I get hungry.

I recommend the Beppe Grillo with a side of risotto and some good red wine.

Nussi34's picture

So what if you lose 2T Euros. It is only worthless paper if a Italian keeps on calling the shots at the ECB

Element's picture

Yup, they want to pretend their warped message is about some heroic game of right over wrong, an inevitable 'just' historic reaction. Except when the BS is stripped away, it's just more crazy ideological krud peddlers looking for a justification to do harm. Best thing Europeans can do is blanket ignore nefarious external voices and act like the nascent incomplete federation that it is.

angel_of_joy's picture

They'll blanket it all right, until it will blow up in their face... We tend to call this sort of things "revolutions". For some reason, they seem to happen mostly in Europe...

Ayreos's picture

Beppe Grillo's only income is from his comedy shows. Regardless, there is no "Ivy League" in Italy, as that's a scam for decadent anglosaxons. No need to get butthurt because of a little allegory. This man has been preaching rejecting the notion of "growth" for the sake of individual happiness of every citizen. The mottoes of the 5 star movement he founded are "No one left behind" and "1 is worth 1".

UselessEater's picture

"The relationship between Grillo, Stiglitz and Soros gives rise to all sorts of fascinating speculation."

 

http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/35729/Soros-and-Grillo-Crash-t...

optimator's picture

Aha!  You just proved the old proverb, "If you can't talk about someone, they own you".

giovanni_f's picture

Thirst mutilator, the editor-publisher of  "die Zeit", Josef Joffe, is member of 7 transatlantic clubs. Same goes for Süddeutsche, Frankfurter Allgemeine, Spiegel which are fully integrated in transatlantic networks since the time they have been given permission to publish by the US in the aftermath of WW II. Well documented, see link 1 at the end of this post: It is from Channel II of the public German broadcaster ZDF.  I suspect your German is not sufficient to understand all details but I am sure you'll get the messsage if you follow attentively.

Now you expect me to say that "the jews are behind everything". Well, I have to dissappoint you in this respect. The jews are vicitms as well, a good history of jew-hatred and its origins in Europe can be found in Israel Shahaks excellent book, "Jewsih History, Jewish Religion", see link 2 at the end of this post

Link 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvTWo5ZGcNA

Link2:http://www.amazon.com/Jewish-History-Religion-Israel-Shahak/dp/074530818...

Thirst Mutilator's picture

I don't give a FF about Joffe [which is relevant insofar as you yourself state that he himself is 'controlled by...', which essentially renders him irrelevant &/or therefore suggests is exhonorated from culpability]

 

My simple & actual question still stands... "the US is controlled by"????

 

If you want to answer my question, then BE DIRECT... If you want to jack off by sporting 'LINKS TO NOWHERE', do it on your own time. 

 

& don't give me this crap about living in Italy doing your 'self service' job on synthesizing public opinion towards Grillo. I lived there for 12 years myself and can say that many <3 him. Your voice is just one in many.

 

- If it came down to 'OPINION' [in a room with Obama, Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, & myself], I lose 3-1... 

- If it came down to Michael Bloomberg & myself on issues... Well ~ it's better we don't go there because ONE of us would get kicked off a blog. 

- If it came down to Ellen DeGeneres & myself talking about gay marriages... 'Oh look THERE'S A SALE AT PENNEY'S'!

thamnosma's picture

The Jesuits, the lizard aliens, the freemasons, the jews, the wizard of oz

The Wizard's picture

Beppe is in this respect has no majority. Italians suffered so much from a corrupt and incompetent government

Nothing new here. People all around the world have suffered from inept and corrupt governments that continue to profit from the fiat Ponzi.

HardAssets's picture

It's amusing how words are used for fraud. What is meant by ''Germany' in these discussions? Do you mean the average German person on the street who wanted to keep the Deutschmark and was promised that all this was only to improve trade ? What is meant by 'Greece' ? The average Greek who is lamblasted in the US 'press' - who we all know can be trusted, right?
How interesting that both sides were represented by bankers when this was all created. Lots of GS boys involved. Of course they admit to being 'internationalists', so the puppet masters don't take national titles seriously. That's just to scam the silly peons.

Welcome to their neo-feudalist dream.

HardAssets's picture

Banksters print up paper fiat Nothings to steal people's labor, and conveniently hide behind national labels to steal people's lives.

It's really quite brilliant.

Evil and despicable . . . but brilliant.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but not sustainable.  Which brings us right back to demographics, available resources and guns sorting it all out, again...

Same as it ever was...

giovanni_f's picture

Not so fast. There is now a almost open war between Nato and EU. Nato will win, unfortunately, because, first, it is way more easy to destroy than to build and second, a complete lack of leadership at both, the helm of  EU and Germany will almost guarantee Nato will end up victorious.

But what really counts is that the social order be maintained (by all means) and that the interests of a tiny class of financiers are served. In this regard the eilte of both factions will remain unified.

The ony factot in favor of the faction of the civilian leadership is, ironically, Putin - as he is the only one in the position to defeat Nato, as he did now for a second time in east Ukraine.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, how's that working out for NATO in Ukraine again?  As you suggest, it isn't.  Good luck with that cognitive dissonance.

giovanni_f's picture

As I said and as you correctly spotted, I said that Purin might be the factor that breaks the strategy of Nato - but it is not the political leadership of the EU to stop Nato. Now you tell me where my cognitve dissonance is, stronzo.

donsluck's picture

Stand down. As we know, Ukraine is not in NATO. I'm not sure NATO even wants it.

Headbanger's picture

So... Italy is next up.

What do we call it...  ITAXIT??

Or how about just  Ciao !?

HardlyZero's picture

Re-"boot".  (heh...its apropos)

 

Or maybe to germany....DAS-BOOT !

 

There must be some good Youtubes out there on the Dasboot movie meme...regarding the German "position" (underwater), and the German plans, and what they find and happens when they finally 'get home'.

donsluck's picture

You do realize "boot" in German is "boat" in English?

HardlyZero's picture

Yes of course...but you have to play on words sometimes.

Double Entendre'.

 

I'm a computer person so Re-boot = RESET.  it makes sense.

Italy is the boot.

In German boat...yes.

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/europe/it.htm

 

Its a way to rub-it-in to Germany...and their 'loss'.

 

Headbanger's picture

EXITALY!    

Fucking brilliant..  Glad somebody's brain is working this morning

Me thinks two mucho ice fishin gots me brain froze.

Enceladus's picture

I-talaxit?

I-taxi

I-taxIT

Arrivederci bitches

The.Harmless.Jew's picture

 

 

Very close Headbanger!!!!

 

I'd say Taxi for Italy.... 

 

so, TAXIT or ITAXI sound good to me! 

 

 

duo's picture

Germany has destroyed the standard of living of their middle class and provided vendor financing to the rest of Europe since the Euro came about.  Vendor financing works great until it doesn't.  Lucent, anyone?

rccalhoun's picture

O will invite them all to join in the dollar

insanelysane's picture

Ummm, the Greeks and Italians begged to be a part of the EU and even manipulated their finances to make them borderline acceptable.  Germany didn't drag these countries into the EU, they fucking jumped in.  And during this entire time the UK has been hammered for not going all in into this cabal.

Thirst Mutilator's picture

bullshit!

 

Both Greece & Italy played the EU like a fiddle from Day 1 [knowing that when the bill finally came, they'd 'dine & dash']

 

Oh look!

ATHENS OLYMPICS 2004

TORINO OLYMPICS 2006 [narrowly missing out to Sydney on ROME 2000]

Thanx 4 the infrastructure lottery tickets suckas! 

 

Italians fought for both Nazi's & Allies in WW2. Whichever side paid better got the business end of the rifles pointed in the other direction. Euroland north of the Alps is for chumps.

Almost Solvent's picture

Dine & Dash works until the big burly cook catches you down the street and bashes your head in.

BigJim's picture

 Germany has destroyed the standard of living of their middle class and provided vendor financing to the rest of Europe since the Euro came about.  Vendor financing works great until it doesn't.  Lucent, anyone?

Conflating the various people in Germany under the catch-all banner 'Germany' destroys people's chances to think clearly on this issue.

The German banks (and their stakeholders) have been the ones who have benefited from all this. By holding down the value of the euro, the ECB has gipped the average German worker of the purchasing power gains s/he would have seen from an appreciation of the deutschmark against other currencies.

By having the ECB take on toxic PIIGS debt from those same banks, they have transferred the downside of their vendor financing to all users of the euro... including the average German.

'Germany' hasn't benefited. The banks head-quartered in Germany have benefited. And I'm willing to bet the majority shareholders of those banks aren't German, any more than the Fed's owners are German.

donsluck's picture

Thus the issue of Nationalism. When nations' leaders turn their backs on their constituents faith is lost. So we have to focus on individual players and groups (ie big banks, prime ministers, presidents, corporations etc.) which dilutes our energies. What we are witnessing is the death of nations and the movement towards Corporatism.

ThroxxOfVron's picture

"What we are witnessing is the death of nations and the movement towards Corporatism. "

This process was begun during WW2 in various ways.  Eisenhower warned of the MIC -which is coroporatism/consumer construct superseding the classic nation-state/citizen construct.

By the 1970's the corporatists/globalists had become so powerful that the national leadership in the US was cptured: and Nixon was sent to China to begin the process of off-shoring the production base to enrich the corporatist oligarchy at the expense of the American citizenry.

The movie 'Network' was in effect a mass-media exposition on the near completeness of the replacement of the socio-political order with mass-production-culture/consumerism/fads, product and news 'cycles', etc..

The great lie : 'the vast ecumenical holding company': 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKkRDMil0bw