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Germany Gives Greece Just Enough Rope: Varoufakis Says If Troika Rejects Reforms "The Deal Is Dead And Buried"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As usual, the fine print of any European "deal" is revealed not only after the agreement, but after the US market close. So for all those waiting for the real punchline, here it is - it also is the reason why Greece got until Monday to reveal the list of "reforms" it would undertake:

"We’re in trouble next week if creditors don’t accept Greece’s reforms", Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says. "If our list of reforms is not backed by the institutions, this agreement is dead and buried."

That's bad. But... "But it’s not going to be knocked down by the institutions."

For his sake, let's hopes he is correct in predicting what the Troika, pardon, Institutions will do. Because this is precisely what Schauble meant when he said that the "Greeks Certainly Will Have A Difficult Time To Explain The Deal To Their Voters": under the conditionality of the Troika's approval, the Tsipras government now has to walk back essentially all the promises it made to the Greek people - promises which by some accounts amount to over €20 billion in additional spending - or the Troika, pardon Institutions, will yank the entire deal and the Grexit can then commence.

And that's the bottom line.

It's also the reason Schauble was gloating: because he gave the Greek government just enough rope with which to hang itself.

Then again, if and when the Tsirpas government is booted out next once the Greek euphoria turns to disgust and disillusionment, does Germany really want to negotiate with Golden Dawn instead?

 

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Sat, 02/21/2015 - 02:45 | 5811338 rex-lacrymarum
rex-lacrymarum's picture

They knew all about it BEFORE they let Greece join the euro area. 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:04 | 5810709 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

This is getting all too predictable. Yawn!

From two weeks ago:

"We'll know Yanis' position come the end of Feb.

And I"m pretty sure it's going to be bent over in front of the Troika.

Nothing will change.

Let's see him prove the doubters wrong."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/yanis-varoufakis-resumes-his-da...

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:09 | 5810717 joywarren
joywarren's picture

I would ask Varoufakis:  How does the shit in your mouth taste like?

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:20 | 5810750 Promethus
Promethus's picture

Any Greek politicians who say we want to stay with the Euro but... has already folded. Stiff the banks and go back to the drachma.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:31 | 5810780 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

the gentlemen will return their penises back into their pants. until Monday.

European Union finance ministers agreed Friday to help Greece out of its financial doldrums by extending its bailout for four months.


After hours of intense negotiations, European officials confirmed to journalists that Greece will get money to keep its economy afloat, as long as its government presents a plan that will satisfy European creditors


 http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150220/1018553585.html#ixzz3SLGZi0qh

Greece has issues with the EU.  Russia has issues with the EU. Are they working in concert? 

On Monday we'll see if Greece is jerking the EU around.  With or without Russia's assistance.  And what Varoufakis' plans for the next four months are.  

It ain't over till the EU padlocks the Acropolis.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:40 | 5810810 mijev
mijev's picture

After Obama took office, he was offered the choice of doing what he promised or doing what wall street wanted. He immediately tried to cram as much CEO cock in his mouth as he could. At least YV made a few ripples and maybe he has another trick or two up his sleeve.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:38 | 5811016 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

It was a black day for America when Obama became president. (Pun perhaps intended)

We hope it will be a smooth (shaven) day for Greece with Varoufakis as PM.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 22:42 | 5810806 Kprime
Kprime's picture

if Varoufakis wimps out and doesn't give the Greeks what they voted for they need to whoop an ISIS beheading on the entire Greek .gov.

Them ISIS guy's know how to implement change that gets the message across. And, they don't let no damned fuckin yankee .gov tell them what to do.  Greeks, pay attention.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:10 | 5810906 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

All of this Greek exit talk is so much bullshit. Does anyone really believe Greece is going to be allowed to default or leave the EU? The EU is like the Hotel California, where "you can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave". The elites have FAR TOO MUCH invested in this Frankenstein monster know as the EU to set back and watch it dissolve. When it finally does go away, it will not be one of the PIGS that will cause the dissolution, but Germany itself will finally throw in the towel, when the cost to keep the party going finally  exceeds their ability/willingness to pay.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:29 | 5810985 MS7
MS7's picture

I think it is going to be France under Le Pen that will be the kiss of death to the euro zone... Of course, maybe you are right because when the French elections start getting closer, Germany might decide to make the first move.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 04:40 | 5811423 smacker
smacker's picture

Quite so. It seems to me that the Euro-elites are in complete denial about the disaster that the Euro currency is. They may or may not see the structual flaws in having a currency union between states which have very different cultures and economic performance, and may believe it can be resolved by introducing 'transfer payments' (as happens in the US) or some other way of providing welfare support to the poorer PIIGS via collective bond issuance etc which amount to the same thing.

But German (and maybe other Northern Euro members states) taxpayers will not agree to that, so they will have to be deceived, or Germany will finally admit the Euro is a failure and quits, or the Euro crises rolls on and on 'forever' until one of these truths is finally in plain sight and denial/deception/extend & pretend/delay & pray is no longer an option.

It is sad that wrong political decisions are always allowed to cause immense damage before time is called on them. Few people have the nous to look ahead and bring a halt to them before serious damage is done.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 06:01 | 5811478 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

If Russia decides to kick out all German companies and perhaps even shut the gas off,. then its all over for the EU

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 06:19 | 5811492 smacker
smacker's picture

Well, yes, but I've not heard of that being an option which Russia is contemplating at this time. Although if the West continues to demonise Putin for looking after Russia's national interests, to tell malicious lies about what Russia is/is not doing in Ukraine and to blame him for their own criminal actions, the proposal may well get tabled in Moscow. Russia is being extremely tolerant so far.

Meanwhile, turning the gas off to the EU would cost Russia a lot of revenue, at a time when it's already under pressure. So I'd see it as one of the last resorts. That said, Mutti is playing with fire which is not in the German national interest. Which shows us just how much power/control Washington has over Europe.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:41 | 5811031 joywarren
joywarren's picture

Hey Varoufakis, I recommend that you bring my granny with you on Monday.  Believe me, she's a better fighter than you.  She can help you out.  Let me know if your interested, I need to check her out from the nursing home.  

On a serious note, I agree with MS7's comments.  Le Pen may be the one.

 

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:53 | 5811043 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

'...In fact, what was agreed on Friday night guarantees there will be no fresh crisis - no fears of Greece quitting the eurozone - for a full two days...'

Peston - bbc news.

Two days peace, starts up again on Monday.

This is not even the end of the beginning...exit in due course.....maybe just before the much heralded shemitah September crash possibility event horizon.

Fri, 02/20/2015 - 23:59 | 5811098 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

"If our list of reforms is not backed by the institutions, this agreement is dead and buried."

I don't accept the reforms, now piss off.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 00:00 | 5811102 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It matters not what we each think of Germans or Greeks or Americans etc. The reality is that the vast majority of all these races are sheeple. I repeat sheeple.

And that is where the real problem lies. Sheeple get sent to fight wars for others. Sheeple rarely burn a politician. Sheeple love to spend more than they earn and bankers will allow them to do so. Sheeple vote over and over again for the same wolves, the same parasites, the same psychopaths.

Like I said, the eilte are turning us against each other to take our mind away from turning on them.

It is a time to spend our remaining efforts, hopes and pennies on raising some decent children and grandchildren in the hope that they might restore some respect to the human race.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 00:23 | 5811158 frankly scarlet
frankly scarlet's picture

That's a pretty good bluff. What does the Troika do with the exploding derivatives on Greek debt when the Greeks refute/default on all their debt and start over with a new Drachma? Not that the Greeks will have an easy time of it but only that a reboot is better than carrying on in this never ending cycle of make believe and mounting debt long unrepayable.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 00:24 | 5811165 Full Nelson
Full Nelson's picture

YANNIS VAROUFAKIS!!  PLEASE SPILL THE BEANS ABOUT HOW YOUR FAMILY WAS THREATENED BY GERMAN HITMEN UNLESS YOU AGREED!!

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 00:28 | 5811170 michelp
michelp's picture

All this is beginning to look more and more like theatre.

No Shakespeare though!

m.

 

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 01:19 | 5811252 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/is-greeces-new-leader-alexis-tsipras...

 

The Euro wants Greece to stay in it because Greece is a Balkan Country, Russia wants that for control over gas lines- threat to US bankers who need petrodollars for liquidity.

 

"......Secondly, Greece is an importer of certain essential items, notably oil and gas, for which it must pay in hard currency – dollars, or a currency that can readily be swapped into dollars. If its own currency were freely traded, it could exchange it for dollars, but devaluation would quickly make oil and gas imports prohibitively expensive. A foreign exchange crisis would be on the cards rather soon after exit, I suspect.

Of course Greece could peg its new currency to the dollar or the Euro, but maintaining such a peg when the currency is devaluing would quickly burn through its scarce reserves. A currency board arrangement like Bulgaria’s might also be a possibility – but it is hard to see that this is any improvement on Euro membership. BULGARIA HAS BEEN IN OUTRIGHT DEFLATION FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS BECAUSE OF VERY TIGHT MONETARY POLICY ARISING FROM THE NEED TO BACK ALL LEV ISSUANCE WITH EUROS. And this is without considering the negative effect on trade of re-denominating into a devalued currency with no international standing.

Exit would mean a sharp recession in an already depressed economy. It would not be welcomed by the Greek population, which despite everything is still substantially in favor of Euro membership. For all these reasons, the Syriza government is – wisely – unwilling to countenance Greek exit

So the EU went through that trouble with Greece and the banks so the U.S. can hoard control over foreign oil prices.  Here's the same line of probable b.s. that nobody cared about except Greece: 

"...(the same usual fluff the talking headed parrots with touretts b.s. factory plagerized off of each other)...And this raises the specter of exit contagion. Once one country has left the Euro, others can. It’s like adultery: once the line has been crossed once, it is likely to be crossed again….. For the Eurozone to force out Greece would therefore set a very dangerous precedent. As Draghi pointed out in a speech given in Helsinki in November 2014, if a country left the Euro it would no longer be a single currency. It would simply be a managed exchange rate system – and managed exchange rate systems are vulnerable to speculative attack and sudden disorderly failure. The Euro’s predecessor the Exchange Rate Mechanism unraveled very quickly indeed once the UK was forced out. At the moment it seems unimaginable that the Euro could similarly unravel, but that is because the mechanism by which countries could leave has not been established and the precedent has not been set. If that were to change, the situation might be very different.

Allowing the Euro to unravel or the Eurozone to fall further into depression due to a disorderly sovereign default and exit when Ukraine is blowing up, Moldova is about to follow suit and the Russian bear is growling on the borders of the Baltics would be the height of folly. It is also worth remembering that Greece is a Balkan country, and Russia is very interested in the Balkans for strategic reasons to do with gas pipelines, oil refineries and warm-water ports. A Russian delegation arrived on Syriza’s doorstep the day after it was elected: although Syriza has ruled out accepting loans from Russia (and Russia’s current shortage of Euros suggests that loans are not very likely anyway), special trade deals and FDI are a distinct possibility – but probably not while Greece remains a member of the Euro.

There is also the little matter of the other Balkan countries: Bulgaria is talking about joining the Euro (though it admits it is nowhere near ready at the moment), and Serbia is a candidate for EU membership. How would their attitude be affected by Greece being forced to leave the Euro and possibly the EU as well? Then there is Turkey, Greece’s Islamic neighbor, which is perennially interested in EU membership but is increasingly looking east, and Hungary, an EU member that is modelling itself as a Russian-style “illiberal state” and running dangerously close to breaching EU membership rules. (the rest is the ususual fluffy bits that the talking heads plagerized off of each other)http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2015/02/17/why-greek-exit-fro...


Sat, 02/21/2015 - 19:25 | 5813408 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Greece is in the Balkans? 

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 01:16 | 5811253 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Germany should not have to give Greece any more rope or anything else.  I would be pretty fucking pissed off if I were a German taxpaying citizen.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 01:34 | 5811276 Kina
Kina's picture

i think greece has done a pretty good job so far given what they had to take over and who they have to bargain/fight with.

 

not over yet by a long way as we seen so far..there will be more twists and turns.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 02:20 | 5811309 AnthonyScungilli
AnthonyScungilli's picture

Smart move IMO in for months brics bank and the shanghai coop will be up and running....better rime to make the switch........if your bank fails do you still owe your debt? 

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 02:23 | 5811314 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Oh, the big boys knew Golden Dawn were the real deal. That's why GD's leadership are in prison.

Bets on SYRIZA being proven to be bankster astroturf designed to appeal to disillusioned PASOK voters begin now.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 03:16 | 5811362 Jano
Jano's picture

the main point is, that 10.000.000 people are not happy.
they will go out and riot. They are really in the same opsition, like people in Donbas, the only difference is, that there is no shooting in Greece (yet).
what will Germany then do?

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 07:32 | 5811529 Tigg47
Tigg47's picture

Since 1827 Greece is used to not pay their debts. They like it that way and are even addicted to it.

I think I will move there, my money is already there.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 03:20 | 5811366 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The whole planet has been loaded up with the bankers only product, loans/debt.

The bankers product lets you spend the loan today today and make the repayments in the future.

It is effectively just borrowing money from the future to spend today.

The loans are spent and the future is here ..... global repayment time ..... global depression.

 

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 05:06 | 5811446 falga
falga's picture

details, details.... Now lets look at this scenario, by Monday, Greece needs to agree to all demands of Troika and IMF and by Tuesday deal should be sealed.  Any issues with that?  hmmmmm......

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 05:08 | 5811447 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Should read: Germany Gives Greece Just Enough Rope to hang itself.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 05:34 | 5811463 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

I have a feeling we will hear on monday the deal is off. or maybe tuesday, at the latest.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 05:45 | 5811470 Reptil
Reptil's picture

It's not over yet. :-)

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 06:06 | 5811483 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

If the Useless Snakes and NATO keep the drums of war against Russia going., all Russia has to do is kick out all German companiies and turn off the gas.  What will Germany do then?  6000 companies in Russia doing business is not a small thing to  the German economy.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 06:42 | 5811505 Watson
Watson's picture

This entire article is written as though Germany is trying to avoid Greece getting any more money.
IMO, this simply isn't true.
FWIW, I can quite believe that _Schauble_ doesn't want Greece to be given any more money.
And so some German voters (AfD).

But the _only_ German who matters is Merkel, and Merkel will always, if push comes to shove, do whatever is needed to keep her dreams of the United States of Europe alive.

For heaven's sake, she was brought up in East Germany, even more guilt-ridden (through state propaganda) than West Germany over WW2.
She knows perfectly well that Greece is a corrupt basket case, and will bleed German cash forever.
Just like farm subsidies for French farmers, just on bigger scale (when did the CAP ever get reformed?).
She allows all this because she considers it is the price to be paid to stop another European war.

And Draghi etc. at the ECB have to keep the show on the road, because if it goes off the road their jobs disappear.

What you want to worry about is if any of the loan deals need further EUR-zone Parliamentary votes.
Because I think The Netherlands might reject...unless Germany guarantees any of their possible losses as well.

Watson

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 08:36 | 5811576 Jano
Jano's picture

to contrary. I understand, that the Greeks do not want more money, Greeks want no money and less debt. 90% less debt and no new moeny.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 07:55 | 5811546 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

The only way to read this is Greece blinked.  I think they needed time and realized they weren't ready to exit the Euro yet.  I don't see this as any indication that the Euro is suddenly viable again.  It's still going down - just not yet...

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 09:15 | 5811617 apocalypticbrother
apocalypticbrother's picture

I believe grexit will come when BRICS has the financial infrastructure in place for Greece to exit into.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 09:34 | 5811636 Kina
Kina's picture

Its not over till somebody quite large sings. 

I doubt anything is at it seems and that there are more suprises and tons of bullshit to go through yet.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 09:51 | 5811660 gwar5
gwar5's picture

A German, Christine Lagarde, and a Greek walk into a bar...

 

They soon get drunk and the Greek bets the German 350 Billion Euros he can piss all over Lagarde's face and she will like it. The German takes the bet. The Greek jumps up on the bar, drops trow, and proceeds to piss all over Lagarde's face with a full bladder while she laughs and smiles, gurgling with delight. 

As the German shakes his head counting out the 350 Bilion Euros to the Greek, asks him how he did it. The Greek replied, "Simple, I just told her If she let me piss all over her face I'd find a way to give her 15 Billion Euros with no austerity riots."

 

The end.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 09:52 | 5811665 JimmyRainbow
JimmyRainbow's picture

well, wait and see.

greece has to prepare something till monday, if it is not there troika will come in, get a bloody nose

and all over again

this is sparta

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 09:55 | 5811667 sidiji
sidiji's picture

yada yada, ZH continues to try and spin the news for the last ounce of doom.

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 10:14 | 5811689 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

Despite living in the land where democracy was allegedly invented, the Greek populace did an amazing job forgetting the first and second rules of democracy: 1) "all politicians lie all the time to get elected" and 2) "it doesn't matter who wins the election, nothing changes."

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 10:25 | 5811703 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Michael Pento: There Is No Deal…Riots & Chaos In Athens And Markets On Monday http://kingworldnews.com/no-dealriots-chaos-athens-markets-monday/

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 10:42 | 5811739 doggis
doggis's picture

"what if"

 

what if russia has lined up bridge loan financing for the greek government if greece accepts a gas pipeline through their territory.

what if the transit fees paid to greece for the russian gas pipeline is used as the income stream  to pay the russian bridge financing loan over 20 years. [that is transit fees paid directly to russian government]

what if as a cherry - russia promises 50% off of natural gas prices for greece for the same 20 year loan repayment schedule.

what if russia bought all agricultural products greece had to export for the next 20 years.

what if Merkel [who is east german, speaks russian, and quietly has very close ties to russia] WANTS greece to go in the direction of russia. what if she is quietly building a EUR-ASIAN trade zone for the future, away from that of the west.

what if greece quits using the "euro" come monday [bank holiday], and the drachama is reinstituted. keep in mind that greece still remains a full member within the european union - it just leaves the euro usage.

 

what if ........ ?

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 14:39 | 5812411 VooDoo6Actual
VooDoo6Actual's picture

Your what if was already hashed out over 3 weeks ago when Greece pivoted to Russia. The bigger question in my mind is why didn't it materialize ? All of those were discussed including LP Gas, Food import sanctions relaxed from Greece to Russia to help Greece Farmers etc. Hmmmm....

Sat, 02/21/2015 - 17:41 | 5813076 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

This would all work if Greece was out of the EU.  Russia will not build any more pipelines through EU countries, so Grexit would have to happen first.  Otherwise, up to EU to build a pipeline through Greece and negotiate transit fees with Athens.  If no Grexit, the Russians would connect the Turk Stream to the Greek pipeline at the Turkish/Greek border.

Sun, 02/22/2015 - 09:18 | 5814702 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Lets cut to the punch:

Greece is not  now nor will it in the forseeable future be able to pay the money it owes.

All this blah, blah, blah seems to be just making time for a few to get better positioned if they can. Fat chance of that?

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