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50 Shades Of Greece
Submitted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer of The Automatic Earth
50 Shades of Greece
When it comes to the ongoing Greek question, I see a lot of people eagerly jump to conclusions, after the ‘debt deal’, that I don’t think are justified; certainly not yet. The overall conviction in the press seems to be that Syriza has given in on just about all fronts, and Germany and Dijsselbloem are the big winners.
But since that may well be the exact position Syriza wants ‘the other side’ to be in, where they think they have prevailed, one will have to try and think a few steps ahead before judging the situation. There’s far more grey area here than many pundits seem to assume, easily 50 shades of it.
If Greece wouldn’t have given Germany the idea that it was winning, Athens would have already come very close to an exit from the eurozone. The problem with that is that it is not part of the mandate Syriza has been given by Greek voters. Who have spoken out for an end to austerity, but within the existing euro framework.
Varoufakis et al. may long have concluded that such a set-up is simply not realistic, but they would still have to work up to a situation where, at some point, they can present this to the people. And that can only be done after they can convincingly show that Germany and Holland refuse to honor the democratically decided mandate Syriza brings to the table.
They would have to make absolutely sure that the other side gets the blame for the failed negotiations. They have to do that anyway, even if a Grexit is not their preferred outcome. They need to be able to prove that they bent over backwards and Germany still wouldn’t play ball.
The 4-month extension debt deal agreed on this week is still contingent on a set of measures Varoufakis is due to hand to his various European ‘partners’ on Monday. If the ‘partners’ throw out the package, or too much of it, then Tsipras can go to the Greek people and say:
“Look, they’re not acting in good faith, they refuse to honor your democratic vote, and the mandate you handed us with that vote. So what are we going to do now? Do you want to stay in the eurozone and the austerity programs it forces upon you, or are we going to try to find out what would happen if we leave the euro?”
Even if Tsipras et al had been relatively sure, before the recent elections that brought them to power, what the negotiations with the ‘partners’ would lead to, it couldn’t have those negotiations and show the results to the voters. Perhaps as early as this Monday, it may be able to. It was simply always going to be a necessary step in the process.
Over the past week, Syriza has shown its ample willingness to negotiate, to do concessions, so much so that it’s being accused of betraying its voters. Also a necessary step. But if Schäuble and Dijsselbloem overplay their hand the coming week in reacting to Varoufakis’ proposals for getting the 4-month extension, the trapdoor may fall shut, and Greece may start preparing to leave the euro. Either after getting the people’s mandate first, or after being thrown out by Brussels and Frankfurt.
Would that be such a bad thing for Greece? Nobody really knows, even if everyone is more than ready to opinionate about it. One must not forget that things are already very bad in Greece, so threats of armageddon could easily ring hollow.
An interesting perspective comes from a Bloomberg interview with Gordon Kerr, co-founder of Cobden Partners, a firm I know Varoufakis was urged to consider as financial advisors, before Syriza chose to go with Lazard (I can’t seem to embed the video, so please click the link and watch it on Bloomberg, it’s only 5 minutes and worth every second):
Euro Is One of the Worst Designed Currencies
Q: Why should they bail? Why should Greece go: you know what: we’re going it alone?
A: Because that’s probably the best alternative for them in the medium term, if not the very short term. I suspect the reason why Greece is clearly trying to do something with the European Central Bank in the next couple days is maybe they have no contingency plan ready to go.
Q: Is Europe ready for Greece to leave? Are the contingency plans in place?
A: I don’t think Europe has any contingency plans.
And a few more points from the conversation:
- Even Citibank are saying that if the ELA’s (=ECB emergency loans) are not extended, Greece would be perfectly within its rights to repudiate up to €300 billion of debt
- So the day after this happens, Greece will be €300 billion better off than it is right now.
- Bulgaria’s currency collapsed in 1996; within a weekend it was restructured..
- They [Greece] don’t have systemically important financial institutions dragging down their economy ..
I find it hard to believe Syriza wouldn’t know at least a good chunk of what Kerr says. And that would give them a lot more room to move than is generally assumed. Thing is, they need to get that mandate from their voters.
The long and short of it is there are a lot of possibilities, lots of shades of grey area, both when it comes to what people involved are thinking and in what they are doing. It doesn’t seem very wise to draw conclusions before having thought through the possibilities, like a strategist, like an army general or a chess player would.
Perhaps Syriza is just playing for time, perhaps that is their no. 1 priority, just so they create the space to come up with a contingency plan in case they leave the euro. But also perhaps they already have such a plan, and what is happening now is simply part of that plan.
And then there’s the option they’ve already been defeated and they’ll have to get ready for more humiliation next week. It’s just that that would make them look very short sighted, and awfully bad strategists.
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moar hope and change; until there is suffering from past decisions, just bullshit(bullish), ha...
It doesn't matter what actual deal is made, only how the bubble-pumping media interpret it on their way to Dow 30,000
Boston Globe: Obama’s too tough on Muslims!
http://tinyurl.com/q3waoe9
linking pain and suffering with real change by real people controlling their destiny.
like the 13 colonies saying "fuck you britian". same story. pain as in stain on earth.
liberty has a cost...
The South Seas company soared. When the world is no longer informed by rational discussion but hope and change, stand by for a storm with no crew.
I said this when the 'deal' was first announced on Friday; it could be that the Greeks are playing for time. Keep in mind that Varoufakis likely learned a great deal about Germany's plans/strategies during the negotiations; this knowledge wil help Syriza if they are planning a Grexit. It will take Greece time to plan contingencies and make arrangements for the big F.U. We won't know if this is the case for some time. If this is the case, the main issue Syriza has now is maintaining the support of the Greek populace while this scenario unfolds.
But remember, as the big debtor (who can't possibly pay its debts), Greece can walk away at any time that suits them. They can simply wait for the most opportune moment to do so.
[If you knew you were bankrupt, and Chapter 11 was inevitable; wouldn't you accept another fully-dischargeable 'bridge loan' from someone stupid eough to extend credit to you?]
I'm not saying this is what Greece is planning; just something to consider.
This thing isn't over yet; not by a longshot...
More likely that this "thing" with Greece is over for the time being. Anyone who has spent more than 10 minutes studying our global financial system and the systemic risks involved knows it's going to collapse in the near future. All this drama in Greece is just to buy a little more time before the first domino it tipped.
They should anounce a national referendum over continued membership of the Euro with a "if exit = yes" then "exit EU yes/no" in addition. That would give them absolute backing for such decisions. My guess is they are building up towards this. If the referendum is positive to continued EU/Euro membership then the people themselves have decided such and its off Syriza's back.
I definitely hope one way or another that Greece leaves the Euro at least if not EU altogether. Time to wobble the cardhouse.
I dunno...but you gotta wonder if Greece's safe word is "moar" at this point
another referendum for independence
we've seen how well they work
Yes. The debt must be serviced...until when ?
It could be years or decades of Bread and Circuses.
It was the external Barbarians that eventually took down Rome, with few to defend it.
That would he the most honest, best way to proceed with a Grexit. And if the Greeks vote to stay in the EU they deserve the eternal raping they'll receive. I have sympathy for those enlightened Greeks being held hostage by their nation state and hope they find refuge. But if a majority votes to stay in the EU, that majority deserves EXACTLY what they get.
You cannot force the Greeks to choose between having their cake and eating it. There will always be a party that promises they can do both, and the Greek voters will always support that party.
One can hope. Even if this concept is pure fiction bless the author for giving me at least a few hours of hope that some small parts of this universe aren't part of the Ponzi.
Your thesis is correct only if Greece is larger than Lehman. If so, no alternative but for Merkel and friends to take the attitude of, "Hey Greece, we would rather you owe it to us than fuck us out of it!"
Greece is like the old adage among the construction hands building a refinery, all they need is a cow, then they would have something to eat, something to fuck, and something to ride to the next job on!" They have the Med, a temperate climate, fish, sheep, shelter, family, friends, pretty sexy women (at least to a male Greek), so a Drachma or two for some Ouzo will suffice quite nicely. This other contrived Madison Avenue hyper-created demand is simply, bullshit. Greece has them by the balls and it will take bribes to salvage the EU. The only consultant I would hire would be Donald Trump, the expert in bank fucking.
"What, me worry?"
Well what ever they are planning they best get one thing clear, the other side is making every attempt to listen in on the discussion.
This "thing" was over a long time ago. In hindsight this is going to look like arguing over the bar tab aboard theTitanic.
The Greek people voted for the corrupt socialists to screw them and their children just as the American people voted for Dear Leader Obama to screw people for generations to come with Obamacare, illegal alien amnesty, etc. Sure, default on your debt for the fourth time in the past 100 years. Then throw out the socialists so that you can prosper, instead of depending on the government (other people's work and money) for your livelihoods.
Can it be said that the Greeks, and anyone else who votes for socialist/communist regiems that have been proven over and over to fail, are political/economic morons? Yes. But that's no excuse.
"just as the American people voted for Dear Leader Obama"
Give us a fucking break...not everyone has ADHD like you "hope"...
What about the other "corrupt" assholes, like Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan (twice), Scherff (aka Bush Sr.), Scherff Jr. (twice).....??????????????????
That's a lotta years of a lotta shit shoveled downstream to build this current Nazi Empire....
Obama was a Nazi in liberal clothing...icing on the cake...
Eat up ...or go troll wherever else the Koch Bros. pay you to...
Majestic12, You have "Koch Bros" in your comment. Thanks for that! LOL!!!
Here, how about this one: HALIBURTON. ARGHHHHHH!!!! HATE... SO... MUCH... ARRRRRRGGGHHHHH!!!!
Please resume your Obamacare paid for (other people's money) mental health issue(s) medication(s), Majestic12...
LOL!
If you see the Koch Brothers as anything other than the Oligarch scum they are, you have the problem, not him.
NihilistZero, the Koch brothers are not a brand name, company name, or similar. Koch Industries, yes, but not "Koch Brothers." Therefore, when referring to the Koch brothers you should use Koch brothers, not Koch Brothers. You are welcome for the help.
Does Koch Industries have a Grammer Police Department now?
@Nihilist - if you see yourself as anything other than a "dittohead" blindly repeating talking points furnished to you by the DNC, you have the problem, not him.
To say I'm anywhere near the DNC position on just about anything is silly. Read any of my posts.
But hey... Whatever makes you feel better abnout your small penis...
Love reading the comments on articles like this, except the "It's all just fodder to boost the DOW to 30,000" stuff.
Yeah, I heard ya the 389th time, I get it. Now go masturbate to your QE dreams.
Obama? Not a problem, the Republican Calvary is coming to save us and undo all of that homo bullshit.
They are coming, aren't they?
greece just has to wait for rest of the world to catch up to their insolvency. then we'll all be in post-collapse survival, together.
at 18 t plus, i think we have lapped them a few...
interesting, often repeated meme, this "worst designed currency" thing. Don't like exit doors in design? Why not?
A stalking horse designed by a comittee, is still a camel Dhordo.
Fine in principle,but lousy in a horse race, except in a glue factory..
a fiat currency ain't neither a horse nor a camel. it's a tool. for what is this tool designed for?
Pillage and rape, is the answer to your question.
BTW what exit doors, there is no such thing in Euro, because it is NWO currency.
"BTW what exit doors, there is no such thing in Euro, because it is NWO currency". one word: Iraq
Apparently the Lira and the Drachma were "better designed" currencies...
If everybody quits in middle of a monopoly game but you, are the winner or a guy holding a bunch of colored paper worth shit.
They are making this up as they go it looks like. 50 shades of hay. Which is what comes out the back end of the race horse of the same name in ky
Pure win for the Greeks. They get more time and more money that will never be repaid.
Ummm.... I think Return of 20-20 needs to read Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. Allowing Greece to have debts that can never be repaid was Goldman's/the EU's idea all along. Another word for this concept is colonization.
and the Greeks are no orphans when it comes to colonization...um... un-payable debt.
Greece = an original Balkan country.
Sad but true, at the border for many eons, between worlds.
This so reminds me of a sub prime mortgage holder looking for a principal reduction during the housing bust. Banks would throw all kinds of exotic 40 year loans and other BS at borrowers to keep them in the house, but you needed a skilled lawyer to extract a principal reduction. It's amazing how Moral Hazard only applies to the little guy (or in Greece case, Country).
September 1939: Germany versus Poland
February 2015: Germany versus Greece
ZH, please compare...
August 1939 58,000 dead ethnic German civilians inside Poland "cleansed" by Bolshevic Poles ??
Nothing matters here. We all know by now that with the worldwide unemployment, pooling money into special interests, Exporting non-Existent Jobs, jobs (say it a million times)>>>>without income from Job growth, and the resulting demand dynamic, the entire MacroEconomy folds. IT IS folding.
If I see one more reference to "50 Shades of..." I'm gonna ralph up 50 shades of puke.
"When a population becomes distracted by trivia, when cultural life is redefined as a perpetual round of entertainments, when serious public onversation becomes a form of baby-talk, when, in short, a people become an audience and their public business a vaudeville act, then a nation finds itself at risk: culture-death is a clear possibility." - Neil Postman, Amusing Ourselves to Death
Nothing matters here. We all know by now that with the worldwide unemployment, pooling money into special interests, Exporting non-Existent Jobs, jobs (say it a million times)>>>>without income from Job growth, and the resulting demand dynamic, the entire MacroEconomy folds. IT IS folding.
excellent summary! plus one thousand. moar people won't solve this obvious fact.
sputtering....crumble....the great downdraft....voooosh to the black hole of deflating fiat. it be coming...
In a symbolic first act as prime minister, Alexis Tsipras pays his respects to 200 Greeks executed by the Nazis in World War Two.
What message is this sending to the Greek people?
Remember what those Germans did to us before and little has changed with their austerity.
When the Greek finance minister could talk freely a few years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwAClUrhrek
Syriza needed to win the election before they could do anything, hence the popular staying in the Euro-zone stance. When in power the people can be given the choice, whether they want austerity or the Euro; the two are mutually exclusive. The question posed earlier in the process could stop you getting into power.
Bankers and the EU technocrats are psychopaths, so what are the weaknesses of psychopaths?
1) They never learn from mistakes because they never take responsibility for their mistakes.
2) They always feel superior to everyone else, that they are cleverer, stronger and can never be beaten.
This false sense of superiority in the psychopathic personality, leads to catastrophic mistakes by under-estimating the opposition. Hopefully, Syriza will use this to full advantage
(Not learning from mistakes means there will be another 2008, bankers and the FED are psychopaths who took no responsibility for what happened before).
exactly! who has the balls to go up against the owner of a company,( unless i have a years worth of salary in the bank and i just don't care-i've done it)! greece doesn't have a pot to piss in like most mericans. you made your bed, now go navel stare and jack off in that bed...it is your bed looser...own it and get out of it and stand in front of the mirror, and no it isn't the mirrors fault...
"who has the balls to go up against the owner of a company"
You don't have a year's worth of salary????
Who's the loser, blowhard?
blowhard, slow down on those thoughts. do you know what came of leaving? i do...
it's not how big the pile is, it is how the pile is made...
are you going to work monday morning? catching the bus gus?
just asking...
think i'll be thinking of you working for da man...
50 ways to leave your lover gets tough when Glenn Close has an army of bureaucrats backed by FF specialists
"What message is this sending to the Greek people?"
Well said, Batman!
Syriza could refuse to come up with a list of reforms on Monday, but the best strategy for Syriza is a longer term one that gets the full backing of the Greek people.
We did our best to meet your demands to end austerity and stay in the Euro-zone, but the deal from the Euro-zone offers no end to austerity.
As ending austerity and staying in the Euro are mutually exclusive, the people must choose what they want in a referendum.
Getting the people behind you always helps.
The only way to avoid austerity for Greeks is radically improve PRODUCTIVITY.
Without it the austerity is unavoidable.
leaving EURO means automatically lower living standard by devaluating Drachma.
Greek voters will finally wake up, they again made the same mistake when believed socialist politicians and their unrealistic populist promises ( they will pay for their past mistakes by austerity in any case - with or without Euro )
More worrisome is that other EU taxpayers will pay for Greece anyway, even if It is not their fault.
This entire production has been like watching a dog chase it's tail. A whole lot of energy is used up but the outcome is still the same.
A 55 gallon drum of turd polish will do no good, it's still a turd, it smells, but it does have a little shine to it!
I think it''s the option that's cited in the last paragraph that best describes the situation. This is not a ploy by Tsipras to gain time and exit the euro. They are unfortunately committed to the euro as Varoufakis said many times during the negotiations. Assume for a moment that this was not so. Would they not have used the threat of a euro exit (together with the "stuffing" of 320B of debt) as, at least, a ploy to improve their hand in the negotiations? Now they have to present by Monday a list of their proposed measures for approval. Already they are saying that this list will exclude any of their non-memorandum policies and will focus solely on tax evasion and anti-corruption measures. Talk about captured politicians.
Frankly speaking, with such newbies having inherited a situation without any proper briefing or help by the incumbents (one could go as far as to say they were ambushed by them), and with all the crap that was flying around by all sorts of idiots who shouldn't be opening their mouths, it is quite remarkable that they even got a glimmer of flexibility from ze Germans et al.
They now have 4 months to settle in, rally the troops and make real plans.
Lets just hope that they'll be good plans. And perhaps Grexit will be the only option, but obviously too soon to tell, even though "Grentry" should never have happened....
That was easy. The banksters intimidated the current Greeks.
I am sure the banksters let the Greeks know what would happen next week if the Greeks did not cave. The question is whether the Greeks plan to 'stay caved' or if they use the opportunity to see what will happen on a Grexit - then plan an orderly Grexit in a few weeks.
While they buy time, we do not know what external events are going to play out or arise. So many things are happening or being put into play at the moment - the scenery around Greece could change a lot, very quickly.
Poorly written.
"Poorly written."
It's awful. C'mon ZH...have your contributors (at least this one) send a proof-read copy first...or sign them up for a writing course.....
I know there are a lot more rednecks here, but I haven't seen so many run-on sentences, sentences fragments and beginning a sentence with "And", since the 5th grade.....
...oh, wait is that the level we're shooting for here now?
Nevermind.
I up-voted you for content, however, don't criticize grammer...when your...run-on sentence..... describing it.....looks like ....this.
"however, don't criticize grammer...when your...run-on"
Agreed. Touché.
^^^ 'grammEr'
LMFAO ~ You simply can't make this shit up!
Teach a man to fish .... he eats for a life time .... Give a man a fish .... he eats for a day .... loan a man 240 billion Euros .... he'll hire a million government workers .... and be back for more !
240 BE (billion Euros) .... that enough for a BMW .... for every Greek .... so where are they .... they're living in them all over the Acropolis !
Teach a man to fish, and though he's fed for life, he'll call you a miser for not giving him your fish.
Give a man a fish, he owes you one fish. Teach a man to fish, you give up your monopoly on fisheries.
Teach a man to fish, and you can sell him a ton of accessories.
Teach a man to fish and you've fed him for a lifetime ... unless, of course, he doesn't like sushi -- then you also need to teach him how to cook.
Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
Give a man a fish, and he can eat for a day. But teach a man how to fish, and he'll be dead of mercury poisoning inside of three years.
Give a man a fish he'll eat for a day, if you teach a man a fish he'll get drunk then fall out of his boat and drown.
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; Teach him to use the Internet, and he won't bother you for weeks!
Give a man a fish and you'll feed him for a day, but give him a case of dynamite and soon the village will be showered with mud and seaweed and unidentifiable chunks of fish.
Give a man some fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he'll overfish, cause famine in the next three regions and pollute the atmosphere with his fish.
Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Give a man religion and he will starve to death praying for a fish
"Teach a man to fish, and though he's fed for life, he'll call you a miser for not giving him your fish. "
Whoa there, "Thirst Mutilator"...you are giving away your "multiple blogging profiles" (Creepy A. Cracker, Thirst Mutilator, Monetas, New Game) with your "fill-up the column" bloggie-boy rage....
I'm glad I pissed you off.... ;)
Rage? Dude, loosen your tie. This is friggin comedy hour. I don't get 'pissed' about anything until I get '3 sheets to the wind'.
As for your issue. They were all so funny, I had a hard time choosing one. Here's the FULL LINK (which I should have given credit to b4, my bad)
"Dude, loosen your tie."
"Dude", the tie is on an ex-president, not me. I guess I'm just not up with the pierced-nipple, tweenie randomness of blogging style.
But please, fill up the column again and bump us all off the first page...it's "kewl"!
I'm waiting for my dough to rise right now.
I have my browser set to '50 comments' (per page). At present count, your comments fill up 9 of those 50 comments (18%, with the 'median' representation being 2%). I'll admit that I have several comments here as well, but all but 2 of them have been needless replies to you (whom is apparently quite concerned about comment appearances being bumped off the first page).
Back to my dough ball & wing sauce.
majestic for prez and fortune teller, cause he knows all!
i wuz jst wndring bout dat
how mny profilies r samo samo prrson
hope dint pizz u auf
"Teach a man to fish"
Give a man internet access and he turns into a wannabe, amateur economist dick...
are we talkin' gefilte here, or some other tasty 'frutta del mare'?
"are we talkin' gefilte here, or some other tasty 'frutta del mare'?"
Haven't you heard, ZH hates Jews....still here?
I'm not interested in Jews, however, 'hypocrites' bother me. If the aforementioned entities happen to abrogate &/or breach their mutual exclusivity & proceed to combine & co-mingle within the same issue, then so be it. I leave Providence to other powers & forces beyond my control.
More pertinent to your question. NO, I'm not here (after this comment). I'm going to go make a pizza & some buffalo wings. Ciao!
you looking in the mirror? what do you see? not the same as i see...
wow, relax and take a shit, it might help.
Don't you think the reason why the decision took so long is because they have all - the partners - planned their statements in advance? Are we naive to think that the 'list' to be handed over on Monday hasn't already been written? This is all Greek drama. Less entertaining than Oedipus discovering he slept with his mom, solving the riddle if the Sphinx and gouging his eyes out from hubris. Well, I'm waiting for that moment. But since arrogant bureaucrats are insulated from the consequences of their hubris I probably won't ever get to see Yelling or Draghi bleeding from their eye sockets.
Give a man a fire, he stays warm for a day; set a man on fire, he stays warm for the rest of his liffe.
Monica's,
Teach a man to fish, first you make him an alcoholic.
it is a Mceconomy, supersized for bloating assets
So Merkel gets swampy disciplining Syriza?
Hotel Europa won't let Greece leave, Putinski remains the international villain and Israhell can do no wrong.
The two critical issues for the EU are (1) GREXIT (2) Greece veto regarding sanctions against Russia. It seems strange that the new government always insisted they had no plan B and they never distanced themselves openly from the sanctions other than generally qualifying them as ineffective. If you are cornered you play your asses, don't you? But Greece did not!
50 Shades of Bullshit more like, but don't take my word for it, take a look at Bill Still's monologue on the well predicted Greek Syriza political sell out...
http://investmentwatchblog.com/massive-greek-fail-to-the-surprise-of-few...
Hey Putin you should have warned us this was a religious rant and saved us a little time. As long as individual defer to a higher power they will never be capable of assuming responsibility for personal outcome.
Oh, I'm sorry, it's Sunday, my bad; were you praying your long Euro/DKK will bring you salvation tomorrow?
You have to be kidding me. They do this every two or three years to ramp the Dow and people are still wondering if Greece is going to default. What's up people? Are you stupid or what? You have to be BTFD bitchez.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Athens has become an intelligence hotspot - lots of players. Attracted like moths to a light bulb, by an inexperienced govt of the hard left comprising of individuals more adept at playing student university politics than high-stakes international politics. Given Greece’s critical importance to NATO, this could be seen as a vulnerability to the US/EU. Probably the biggest shake up in Greek politics since the arrival of the Junta in 1967. Political instability could feature all over southern europe in the coming years particularly with external actors taking advantage of voter discontent, infiltrating and funding minor political parties etc. The Ukraine is an example of what can happen when a country enters an extended period of political instability.
Meh. Wishful thinking. This all came down to 1 thing: Greece was going to run out of money this week. Hard to negotiate much of a position when those are the cards you hold. I honestly think Syriza believed their own rhetoric - but then the realities of the actual situation became apparent: 70% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, have no austerity and not pay their loans back. How do you reconcile those things into a coherent negotiating position?
Well said NDX - the answer is that you cannot. The banksters played hardball with their short term Greek bank collapse card. Syriza now has four months to counter that card, or Syriza must fold.
When faced with staying in the Euro or austerity, I think the Greeks will go with 'no austerity'
I have worked with companies that are insolvent, and one thing you do not do is piss all the creditors on day one.
Its pointless, and gets you no where, so you start to engage in lots of meetings and negotiations.
But when you are looking at the books and you know for a fact that something is bankrupt, although you might have some wishful thinking, there is reality.
Now the amazing thing is the lengths the creditors will go to keep hope alive, the somersaults they will do with mental gymnastics, but you already know, you know with absolute certainty that this company will never ever be solvent again. No matter how much cash you throw at it, it would still need a miraculous change in fortunes to reverse the situation, and the cost of attempting to borrow would absolutely kill any remaining hopes.
The bankrupt can face that fact far more easily than a creditor,
Creditors on the other hand have no choice but to hope for a miracle. You can lead them on for weeks and months, even getting concessions weeks later that would make them pull the plug today.
Its a long game, and the secret is to delay what you know as hard stark staring fact, the final dissolution, and you are happy to drag it out as long as possible because if you are smart you know that the gullible creditors, gasping and clutching at ever thinner straws will just give you more and more as you ask for more, .
A good receiver, when the company is finally dead and its the day of the burial, knows damned well that if he did his job right the creditors didn't just lose their shirts, they threw in pants, drawers and shoes too, and they might have grumbled but they still did it because they still have the insane belief that reality can cured by hope.
And the fact is that its the fucking criminal evil empire of the fuck witted bureaucrats and the mincing poncing corrupt clowns pretending to be politicians, and even more laughable, smart and erudite too, are desperate, Hope is all they have, and it does seem to me that Yanis is playing them nicely like a well oiled fiddle.
Forget the MSM, there is not one single fucking glove puppet with the IQ or the remotest perception of reality to be even capable of understanding it.
Those fucking assholes have spend so much time on their knees sucking their masters cocks, their legs won't straighten out now and are incapable of standing high enough to see anything beyond the shit they get shoved down their throat.
The ship is going down and Yanis knows it, and going bankrupt is a great time, a great time to make money, and the only chance you get to dump debt and walk away totally free and clear.
Only a fool doesn't make the most of that opportunity and ensure the debt thats dumped is as big as you can possibly make it.
Hopium, every fucking half witted sleazy slime ball politician banker and corrupt little bureaucrat knows nothing else. because not a single fucking one of them is capable of jack shit when the real men need to take action.
If Yanis plays as he seems to be doing now and what I expect, he will drag this out for a year or more and every single week or month will get ever more debt from these clowns to add to his final haul.
Now that's analysis.
Well done, damicol.
It's like a broke college kid, yeah, the EU all are broke, too, the kid will pay to see just one more card to a losing hand in 7-Stud.
They'll bribe the Greek negotiators which is laying more good money after bad.
The good thing is to protect oneself, ZHers, during the massive deluge of bad banking to follow worldwide.
Who the fukk is "Raoul Enlargi Meijer" ?
Some cougars poolboy
" Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose. "
in a troika type world only the lender is important, the debtors can suck it.
1) force debt down their throats for bailouts
2) bankers and billionaires steal it
3) troika up the ass for the "borrowers"
Some people need to play little games. You play yours. Let's just say that you'll pay me because it's in your interest to pay me... [/Senator Pat Geary]
LOL, their radical leaders ( bankster followers) were corn-holed at the meetings.
what i find as funny is that the greek voters thought they could get moar free shit at the ballot box
the "creditors" new they were setting up a sovereign nation to deliver its assets for a penny, the voters thought they were working and voting for a fair society & they like most have been gamed by media, financial trickery & a life under unelected bureaucrats. Ditto voters in many other nations.
' Never has SO much been said that means SO little '
Like is she or isn't she wearing harmony hair spray to hold those wonderful locks together.
That the Greeks would wish to REMAIN in an institution set-up from the beginning to make them 2nd class citizens is beyond me. When you cut off those ankle chains should one not get out of Dodge quickly? This slave mentality beggars belief!
The German Government & their Troika Partners could not give a monkey's chuff, rat's arse or plain FUCK as to whether the Sheeple of Greece die a slow death as long as those loan payments are on time.
FUCK 'EM ALL TWICE
you'll notice that when central bankers try to "help" they buy only the best, choicest, pieces of debt for themselves. Let the pension funds buy all the crap. Nice guys.
Sick!
The light is shone most brightly in the places needing less of our attention.
Think what is possible, and what is probable here.
And then, what is needing focus?
(Remember nothing ever happens over weekends because the markets are not open.)
*unless you are sitting somewhere like Ukraine being shelled.
ex. When was the last headline story from Israel/Palestine?
Your focus/attention is placed where needed by the machine.
Yanis forgot that you never negotiate with terrorists from EU. You give them inch they take foot and swallow it like sausage. (Merkel)
EU banking mafia has taken Greece hostage so he should bomb Brussels instead and ask questions later. Greece has third or fourth biggest army in Europe.
In other word it looks like month long revolution is over.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41071.htm
Advice to PODEMOS invite troika for negotiations and arrest their asses and then negotiate your deal and for their release like good old US does. It will work I guarantee it.
Thank you Raúl!
This post is a breath of fresh air in a forum that was starting to turn on Syriza like a pack of slighted lovers.
They seem to clearly understand that their work is all about taking the leadership in a process, not about delivering a product. Syriza was elected to lead the Greek people in a struggle, not to open the gates of Heaven! They deliberately chose a left-right coalition when they could have put together a far-left, left, left-center coalition, because they understand that this is going to be a struggle of all the Greek people to take control of their national destiny - which will require the broadest coalition possible.
Raúl is spot on. Syriza needs to honor and fight for the mandate the voters gave them, and prepare them to support the next step forward when history puts it in their faces.
They seem to be very clear about that, and considering how new this all is to them they are playing with surprising skill.
They will make mistakes. They will fall and have to pick themselves up. Will we on ZH keep rooting for them like we did last week? Or will we turn on them like a pack of dogs turning on a wounded leader?
Syriza was elected on the promise to reneg on a deal. Now they're trying to make a deal. One could sympathize.
anyway, I like the work who ever is doing on the intro pictures
Willie Z like
very funny
puntuation line
.........,,,,,,,,???????!!!!!''''''
there, I feel better
Raul, face the facts, Syriza party lead by tsipras, was elected based on the fact it was going to take the bull by the horns and bring it down! Instead, tsipras/varoufakis, got to the rodeo, saw the immense size of the bull and started back-pedaling!
you smell that stinch...still at the circus
Don't you think the reason why the decision took so long is because they have all - the partners - planned their statements in advance? Are we naive to think that the 'list' to be handed over on Monday hasn't already been written? This is all Greek drama. Less entertaining than Oedipus discovering he slept with his mom, solving the riddle if the Sphinx and gouging his eyes out from hubris. Well, I'm waiting for that moment. But since arrogant bureaucrats are insulated from the consequences of their hubris I probably won't ever get to see Yelling or Draghi bleeding from their eye sockets.
Well, in these kinds of serial dramas, you ALWAYS get your heightened moments right before the commercial-break. Or in this case, the weekend.
This is when you're supposed to go get a sandwich, bathroom break, and settle in to get ready for the next episode.
Just keep in mind that the dramatic conclusion of the last episode rarely means what you think it means...Yes, you saw the butler with the gun in his hand standing over the corpse, but you KNOW that's too obvious, and some 'twist' is coming...
Greece has the upper hand. You say you can't pay but They still keep giving you money. I'd take that deal all day.
Thank you for this post.
There has been a lot of "Greece folded!" argumentation here, which I think is premature. As I've said, I believe it's because we have developed very short-term thinking. We only see as far as the next day. Big Finance is actually among the longest-term thinkers around today, and even they only look as far as the next quarter.
Reading opinion pieces on any important issue these days subjects one to the mindless 'rattling' of a marble bouncing around in a tin can. No plan, no point, just bouncing off one surface to another.
Or, a better visual would be of the poor hapless woman at the bar being chest-bumped between the three Night at the Roxy guys...
Or, try this one...Did you ever use a laser-pointer to entertain a cat? Once you get it going, that cat will chase the laser anywhere...you can even run your cat straight into a wall, because he's just so focused on chasing that light beam. THAT'S your modern-day 'thinker'...mindlessly chasing the shiny thing even if he runs cranium-first into something in the process.
I read only the headline, because Its actually very simple:
A) They are as corrupt as their predecessors.
B) They are buying time to prepare for some kind of official bankruptcy.
C) They were told that they will have a fatal accident sooner or later.
In about 4 month we should know which one it is.
ZH, you have no sympathy for my gag reflex.
Actions not words. Real change demands it. Any way you slice it this is more of the same talk. With none of the action.
What would actual real change look like? I dont see any. What I do see is more magic money games. Now if they were hinting to the Greek people that a new coin was possibly in the works? Maybe.
Does NAZI stand for NAtional soZIalism which would apply to most present-day western nations, or for NAtional ZIonsim ... namely Israhell ?
Greece is nothing but Germany's junkie whore getting passed around and turned out.
The moral of the story is:
You know you want it, and we all know you'll do whatever we ask to get to it; so stop crying and start sucking.
The Greek people should hang onto their olive oil
They're going to need all the lube they can get
Headlines: No deal likely.
Stocks ignore.
Rumor: There is a deal.
Stocks soar.
Report: The rumor is false.
Stocks ignore.
Friday: We gotta deal!
Stocks soar.
MSM: "Hey, let's keep it going!"
Weekend Headlines: Maybe no deal after all.
Monday: stocks ignore.
Tuesday/Wed: We gotta deal.
Stocks soar....
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Greeks will take it in the ass again in 3. . .2. . .
Dear Mr. Meijer, I read your interpretation of word “democracy” again and again like:
“...Germany and Holland refuse to honor the democratically decided mandate Syriza brings to the table...”
Mr. Maijer in the same sense my family DEMOCRATICALY voted that we need more money a YOU, DEAR Mr. MAIJER should pay our family all YOUR MONEY to avoid OUR AUSTERITY. Please honor our democratic mandate without any delay latest until 10 days …... and Mr. Maijer enjoy as you honestly honored our democratic mandate and YOUR DUTY.
If Syriza is not totally stupid, they know from begining that their populist promises ( keep EUR & avoid austerity ) is NOT REACHABLE..... but it was clearly the WAY TO WIN ELECTIONS.
Now they must look for realistic solutions and show voters best effort to fullfil their promises .... where many promises will not be realized any way.
I wish them big luck at hopefully controlled Grexit .... please avoid Venezuela way with total lack of toilet paper.
Why would the Greek people accept further austerity? Unemployment is already at 25%. Institutions have been hollowed out, with University personnel getting NO SALARIES while they are technically still employed! The Greek people have their backs to the wall. And Germany wants unemployed, starving people to accept more austerity?
This is a real Greek tradgedy, and I don't see how the Greeks will ever accept more austerity measures. Expect more upheaval. But whether the US markets will care is another matter. The US markets seem to think the US lives in a geo-political bubble. When they finally realize the bubble is an illusion, the markets will crash.
Syriza should play along for as long as possible to let as many ordinary Greek people as possible get as many Euro out of their banking system as possible and prepare for exit. Bleeding the banks dry and preparing for exit while garnering majority support of the people is not something you can do in 3 weeks. If they exit it will hurt and Syriza currently has no mandate for that. If they stay then the EU deal is on the table and it will hurt as well. Put the options on the table - they now know what the EU option is - and let the chips fall where they may. If the people speak on a clear question - then Syriza has the authority to act - but they don't have that authority at the moment. All they currently have is the authority to try re-negotiate - nothing else. So to say that Syriza betrayed its manadate is false unless they are not willing to let the Greek people look at the options (stay or exit) and make their choice. Making the EU or anyone else sell this abomination of an agreement to the Greek voters would be interesting to say the least.
Finally on this site, a sensible analysis of what's actually happening with Greece. Even better, from the Greek Press:
http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=67955
"...The truth is that the German Finance Minister, bearing in mind what had happened in the previous Eurogroup where Mr. Varoufakis was faced against 18 of his counterparts, exerted the sort of pressure that would neutralize the Greek side's negotiation abilities.
He was lead by his ideological obsessions, perhaps even by bitterness from the dispute he felt in his home when he met with his Greek counterpart in Berlin...
...In Athens they believe that Schauble was planning to eliminate or rather neutralize and immobilize the new, left-wing government in Greece.
By the end though he was only allied with the Spanish and the Portuguese, who ultimately also abandoned him..."