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Commercial Traders Are The Most Long 30Y Treasuries In A Year
Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak. Over the last few weeks the commercials have shifted their positioning dramatically, moving from one of the largest short positions to a net long position for the first time in almost a year.
If history is a guide then we may be near an intermediate term peak in rates.
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Still just barely net long. Rates may have yet a few weeks before peaking if that chart is any indication.
exactly btfatl
Except for the fact that, according to the charts, rate peaks have sometimes occurred when commercials have only been slightly net long, or even just with reduced net short positions.
Anyways, what's the point of a chart like this?? We KNOW rates are going down until the 30Y is close to zero, and everything else is negative.
They will obviously have to outlaw cash at some point. When bank deposits are "paying" -10%, cash will be the turd in the punch bowl.
Well, with the Russians & Chinese dumping Treasuries & all, it looks like a little bird got in their ear & told them that the MISERABLE FAT BELGIAN BASTARDS are about to step up to the plate.
Gratuitous CAROL CLEVELAND (back in the day) LINK
Historically (don't know if it applies here, or not, but I've not heard anything differently) foreign central banks have dealt directly with/through the Fed/Treasury complex wherein purchases and sales usually don't go through the brokerage community. That Belgian account that so many seem to think is Belgium is simply Belgium because of the location of EuroClear being in Belgium, etc. Those positions are reflective of open market activities. For example, if Citadel were buying T's on behalf of "some unknown account like the Fed/Treasury" rorm an offshore "unnamed" account then if the account were based in Europe, it would probably settle through... ta dah!... EuroClear, etc.
so basically... A CLUSTER FUCK SURROUNDED BY A CIRCLE JERK!
We need QE4. Because interest rates aren't low enough yet on their own. We have a long way to go to catch down to the German 10 year at 0.39%
Exactly. You can't read anything into this, because the US is the last bastion of positive rates.
That will die soon enough. Then we should see some carnage among everyone who is rate dependent.
2.5 by summer
Why?
Because the alternative ends poorly for the PTB and idiots will rush in from other "exits" they've been dancing near.
You seem to think they know what they are doing.
I think they lost control long ago, and are hanging on white knuckled until the crash.
how can they do lose control when they own the cash printing machine ?
of course they know what they'r doing; they only pretend to fail. but it's all by design
Nothing of the sort, but that doesn't stop them from thinking they're still in control and doing the things they believe will maintain said illusion.
BS, they will be more like .025 by the spring!
Ukie propaganda gets more pathetic, now they lie that kindergarten teacher in great Russia federation under great Putin leadership earns only 6000 RUB in one month that is 96 $ a month! What a lie! People in Russia is rich and wealthy! They don't live with 96 $ a month! That is again main stream media lies to brainwash people that Putin stealing all wealth away. We have to bring truth! Thank god there are alternative media like Russia Today, Rosija24, Pravda, Sputnik, LIFE news (Russian). They bring truth!
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-kindergarten-staff-wr...
lol. are you for real?
And are you for real or just one of those US paid trolls? Huh? How much do they pay you?
Have you seen latest ukie propaganda video?
http://youtu.be/gfOqg51GAEk
It's so staged! They are actors! Because first of all in Novorossia there are only locals not some kind of Mongols or something like that. And DNR are very nice people who would never beat up others. We know this, but people arebrainwashed by maind stream media and doesn't see that. Thank god there are alternative media like Russia Today, Sputnik, Pravda, Rossija24 those are really trusty and independent sources.
you can't help yourself - just a low rent pootin fluffer. no and i'm not clicking your link either.
I dislike Russian propaganda just as much as I dislike Ukrainian propaganda and US propaganda. I fucking hate propaganda. Now go away.
Are you also played troll? Because in Russia there is not propaganda, there is Putin.
Not to smart, are you? I dog on people who spew US propaganda pretty hard. You're even worse at this than GCHQ trolls.
Either that or you are a parody account, like MDB. In which case, carry on.
US propaganda is by far the most pervasive and deserves the most push back.
Why would Pooty Poot steal from teachers when the other kleptocrats have so much more to steal?
The 30 year is a penny stock now...hedge accordingly
penny stock &/or trillion dollar coin. Take your pick, they BOTH suck!
Bloomberg is a piece of shit...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-22/russia-adds-to-world-s...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/russia-stops-gold-buyi...
which is it mother fuckers???
"as of Jan 1"..."as of Feb 1"
Both.
well they were written a month apart for one thing.
CBs monetizing all new issuance? Check. Collateral shortage in derivative-land? Check. TLT bouncing off trendline with RSI turning up? Check and check. Looks like we're nearing the event horizon. Plan accordingly.
Well they are not short anymore but net exposure is near zero. It is a kind of hate trade but imho rates go down as in 2 weeks QE starts from the ECB and rate differtential is very high with the US
deflationary depression ... followed by hyperinflation. Even MSM is now reporting we'll see serious inflation in 2015.
Stagflation here we come! all aboard the FEMA train...