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“Global System Catastrophe” Is Key Threat To Human Civilization

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“Global System Catastrophe” Is Key Threat To Human Civilization

 - Oxford scientists cite "global system catastrophe" among 12 plausible threats to civilization

- "Global system ctastrophe" more of a possibility than most western people suspect

- Study described as a “scientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion”

- other threats include nuclear war, environmental degradation, geological events and out of control technology

Recent research undertaken by scientists in Oxford University to identify possible threats to human civilisation has identified "system-wide failures caused by the structure of the network” as one of twelve major threats.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_23-02-15

Global economic collapse, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology have been named alongside nuclear war, ecological catastrophe and super-volcano eruptions as “risks that threaten human civilization” in a report by the Global Challenges Foundation.

The world’s economic and political systems face systematic risks because of their intricate and interconnected natures. The researchers say more work needs to be done to clarify what parts of the system could collapse and destroy western civilization.

The authors of the study say it is about "how better understanding of the magnitude of the challenges can help the world to address the risks it faces, and can help to create a path towards more sustainable development.”

The foundation was set up in 2011 with the aim of funding research into risks that threaten humanity, and encouraging more collaboration between governments, scientists and companies to combat them.

Apart from failure of the systems of civilization the report also looks at the threats posed by the following:

- extreme climate change

- nuclear war

- global pandemic

- major asteroid impact

- super volcano

- ecological catastrophe

- synthetic biology

- nanotechnology

- artificial intelligence

- future bad global governance

- unknown unknowns

The impact of human activities on our environment is the most pressing problem according to the study.

The report warns that ‘extreme climate change’ could lead to a nightmare scenario of famines, mass deaths, social collapse and mass migration igniting global conflict as civilization crumbles.

Cheery stuff!

We are not of the Armageddon persuasion and do not think the end of the world is nigh. However, we are of the view that economic collapse is possible given the unstable and unsustainable nature of our modern global financial, monetary and economic system.

Any of the risks outlined in the report could be the ‘Black Swan’ that leads to a new economic depression and a collapse of the ‘House of cards’ financial system and economy.

There are many environmental risks challenging us today. These include soil erosion and degradation, depletion and destruction of marine life, the collapse of the bee population - the pollinators of our food supply.

With all the focus on and with politicians and talking heads touting their "green" credentials by continuously talking man made global warming - a movement which has taken on a religious zeal as proponents aggressively defend a scientific model most do not understand - other, more pressing,  environmental risks loom unappreciated.

Fukushima is still spewing radioactive material into the Pacific. Fish stocks are being drastically depleted through over-fishing. Creatures upon which we do not directly rely are going extinct at a rate of up to 200 species every day as we annihilate anything that stands in the way of our pursuit of blind economic growth.

Processes that took millions of years of natural selection to hone are being tampered with as genetically modified organisms are forced into the biosphere with no understanding of the long term consequences.

The report discusses the possibility of somebody intentionally creating an "engineered pathogen" to wipe out humanity.

The risks posed by potential geological events such as an asteroidal impact or a mega-volcano are not understood by most people living today. Because our planet is covered with water and dense vegetation the scars of asteroid collisions are not immediately visible.

However, one look at our pock-marked moon through a telescope shows us that - in terms of the vast span of time in which our solar system has existed - such events are quite frequent.

Indeed, geological evidence has been emerging in recent years suggesting that the earth experienced such an event only 13,000 years ago, causing tsunamis and a 300-ft rise in sea-levels due to melting ice caps. This may be the origin of the flood stories that crop up in mythologies all over the world.

A similar event today, with a comparable rise of sea-levels, would destroy most of our cities which are located on the coast. It would have a devastating effect on our interconnected civilization.

The dust cloud that would enmesh the atmosphere as a result of an asteroidal impact or a mega volcano would contribute to global cooling and this, in time, would cause food shortages, famine, pestilence and instability.

The global pandemics of history - bubonic plague, small pox and "Spanish" flu - all thrived in scenarios of food scarcity. The major waves of plague in the "dark" ages were proceeded by periods where crops failed due to lack of sunlight. These periods of dullness are believed to correspond to volcanic activity.

Smallpox festered in the squalid western slums during the industrial revolution. Bernard Shaw, who wrote about that plague contemporaneously, was of the opinion that social programs which improved nutrition and sanitation, rather than vaccines, led to the eradication of the disease.

The "Spanish" flu broke out in 1918 helped along by the malnutrition and deprivation of the first world war. It infected 500 million people all over the world killing up to 100 million - 5% of the global population.

Today, we see pandemics occurring still in Africa, the poorest region in the world. As author Terence McKenna suggested -  in many parts of the world - the Apocalypse that western Christians anticipate is actually occurring right now.

While in the West we have access to good sanitation, our nutrition is lacking. We have more food but much of it is of low quality. We have epidemics of our own - diabetes, obesity, cancer. Our capacity to withstand a new plague is debatable.

The report also deals with artificial intelligence exterminating humanity in much the same way as we treat species less intelligent than ourselves. It touches on nanotechnology and how theoretically it could be used to make pocket-sized nukes.

With regard to a system failure the report says:

“The world economic and political system is made up of many actors with many objectives and many links between them. Such intricate, interconnected systems are subject to unexpected system-wide failures caused by the structure of the network”.

The risks to our existing system for acquiring the things we need and the means to conduct such transactions has been well documented on this blog. Cyberterrorism and cyberwarfare have the the potential to collapse our monetary system and our supply chain causing panic and shortages of the necessity of life.

The currencies of overly-indebted nations are also at risk. Given that, for the most part, currencies have no intrinsic value and are backed only by confidence - what happens when people lose faith in their governments, central banks and those currencies?

Will the farmer in the Philippines accept a hyper-inflating currency in exchange for his rice or will he demand something more tangible? What happens to our access to energy in such a scenario?

We would be more reliant on indigenous agriculture and industries as imports would fall dramatically. The cost of fuel to run these industries would likely make such industries unsustainable as the income and savings of the target customer is greatly reduced.

These would be short-term consequences but the political ramifications of such an event could lead to all kinds of chaos, authoritarianism and war.

These are interesting topics to contemplate. There is nothing on the list that human ingenuity is not capable of dealing with. What is lacking is the will.

For now, we have a short-sighted unsustainable economic system run by short-sighted, opportunistic corporations and governments.

All very cheery stuff!

Happy Monday!
 

Breaking News and Updates Here


MARKET UPDATE 

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,193.50, EUR 1,055.17 and GBP 777.12 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,203.50, EUR 1,061.38 and GBP 782.51 per ounce.

Gold and silver were lower last week, with gold down 2.2% and silver a large 6.1%.

Gold fell 0.53% percent or $6.40 and closed at $1,201.00 an ounce on Friday, while silver slipped 0.98% percent or $0.16 closing at $16.23 an ounce.

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Days (GoldCore)
Gold in US Dollars - 5 Days (GoldCore)

Gold reached its lowest price in 6 weeks on today at $1,192.00. In Singapore, gold was marginally higher on demand from India and South East Asia and reached $1,204.50 per ounce prior to aggressive selling in early European trading pushed the price below the important $1,200/oz level.

Some of the Greek related safe haven bid has waned after a conditional loan extension for Greece was reached on Friday.

But the last-minute deal over Greece's bailout may not be accepted and uncertainty remains high, leaving the euro under pressure against the dollar, the pound and even the yen. Euro gold remains over EUR 1,050 and has begun to tick higher after initial losses in early European trading.

The absence of the world’s largest gold buyer China from the market may also be leading to weakness. Chinese physical demand will reemerge when Chinese markets open after the New Year on Wednesday.

A close below $1,200 today, would make gold vulnerable to a fall to test the low of $1,130 seen in early November.

www.goldcore.com

 

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Mon, 02/23/2015 - 18:31 | 5820054 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

You all need to have a cookie.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:57 | 5819924 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Future bad global governance is a threat?

But the present bad global governance is okay?

As soon as the future gets here, it will instantly become the present so there is no need to worry about global governance EVER.

Jam yesterday and jam tomorrow, but never jam today.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:27 | 5819805 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

My favorite are all the tech fuckheads and their robots.  Claiming even walmart will be fully automated.  Nevermind who's left to buy the shit.  Nevermind you won't be worth so much when everyone else is working for $1hr or not even working.  Good luck with all of that dipshits.  It will work great for awhile but the end result is disaster.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:07 | 5819700 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Regional electric grid down.. no refrigeration, no heat, if you can't drive 50 miles and find  ice or gasoline your screwed.

  credit cards go down all of them snap and visa master card., nobody takes checks. trust me it can go to hell fast, people will kill you for the gas in your car. druggies in withdraw coming thru the windows. food stores and liquor stores looted. no internet or phones. do you feel lucky Punk ?

and that my friends is a mid level pleasant type system collapse it goes down hill from there..

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 19:15 | 5820226 JerseyJoe
Mon, 02/23/2015 - 19:04 | 5820181 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Just two days ago there was a Carrington size CME event on the sun that if it had been focused near earth would have led to the scenario you mention.

It was massive and maxed out the measurement equipment at 4 million miles per hour.   

 

 

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:31 | 5819824 the edge of chaos
the edge of chaos's picture

mid level pleasant type collapse?.....lol.....thats complete anarchy...gold/silver wont matter.....just food, water, heat and way to defend it.....with everything you`ve known changed and everyones life turned upside down each of us would have to decide if life would even be worth living....many would chose to die....or be forced to....

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 18:18 | 5819991 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

the worse version starts with  city near you destroyed, pandemic forces everyone to stay home & die in place temperatures at 120 f or  -30f with no power. water and Air contaminated roving gangs murdering  raping and burning, 39 days of rain, nuclear winter, EMP all at once

 

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:31 | 5819823 the edge of chaos
the edge of chaos's picture

mid level pleasant type collapse?.....lol.....thats complete anarchy...gold/silver wont matter.....just food, water, heat and way to defend it.....with everything you`ve known changed and everyones life turned upside down each of us would have to decide if life would even be worth living....many would chose to die....or be forced to....

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 16:43 | 5819607 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

The impact of human activities on our environment is the most pressing problem according to the study.

 

Oh, horsecock.

It's banking psychopaths trying to steal the entire planet, and being happy to start full-on nuclear war to do it.

Fucking academic half-wits.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:06 | 5819691 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

Are you kidding? The global warming has become so intense that I've almost frozen to death.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:32 | 5819830 Osmium
Osmium's picture

You are just not reading all the literature on the subject.  The entire globe was warmer except where you live.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 16:25 | 5819543 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

"extreme climate change'?

Give me a fucking break

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 15:05 | 5819158 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"scientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion"

Sending the wrong people (as usual) to make an assessment that obviously has come to posess them all.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 15:04 | 5819144 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The top of the list should be economic collapse but the Oxford people were probably relying on the economic bullshit from the CB's and the markets. Civilization's has always fell apart when the economy became unstable but now the entire world is involved in the dance of destruction and it's just a question of how far things will fall and when.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:11 | 5819723 Billy the Poet
Mon, 02/23/2015 - 15:00 | 5819130 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Psquared: I don't see how an economic crash or even systemic failure would wipe out civilization. A meteor or nuclear war yes, but not bad planning by governments or central banks.

Correct.  Hell, the average 450 lb scooter riding Walfart shopper could supply enough fat and protien for a family of four for 6 months if properly processed.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 16:52 | 5819640 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

 I don't see how ...

Here is one way that's pretty likely.

Major bank failures / holidays lead to Letters of Credit / Bills of Lading delay and failure.  A great deal of shipping stops in a short time - a week or two.  Without credit to grease ship transportation, the finely tuned machine gets sand in the gears.

With the shipping chain disrupted, JIT manufacturing closes shop.  Workers receive no pay and cannot spend.  Trucks and ships tie up in closest port.  With the speed of Twitter, rumors mutate and magnify - someone pulls the plug on the Web and fiber goes dark.

Within a week, food riots break out as almost NO HOUSEHOLD IN THE STATES HAS MORE THAN A WEEK OF FOOD on the shelf. Pantry is a thing of the past.  National Guard hits the streets as cops go home to tend to their families - and conficate some food at gunpoint.

From here it gets worse.  All because a wheel came off at a hub; a primary point of confluence - a tipping point. There are many primary hubs, any one of which affects all the others. The world is fractal; when one pushes on one point excessively, the force is sometimes transmitted and enlarged and manifests at another unpredictible point.

In this modern world of shipping and manufacturing, the necessary goods for commerce are in a constant state of travel, running on oil and money.  Disrupt either of these forces (yes, money has both mass and momentum) and chaos begins, the effects multiplied by time.

Now do you get it ?

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:48 | 5819875 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Good post, and your scenario seems plausible.

Some sociologists have theorized that civilized society is only 9 meals away from total chaos. Has anyone tried to imagine or visualize how quickly the local food supplies could be depleted? Or how quickly the area grocery stores or super Wal-Marts could run out of food? It's even conceivable to witness National Guard troops or some other rapid reaction force securing control over the area food distribution hubs and warehouses, with authorization to shoot-on-sight any persons seeking to gain unauthorized entry. It could get ugly quickly.

On a side note, it was nice to see the late Terrence McKenna mentioned in this article. His pioneering research into the nature and fabric of reality has been an inspiration to many.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 18:30 | 5820047 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I've read that the average city has 3-7 days worth of food on the shelves of its stores at any given time.  It's been a while since I read that, so take it for what it is worth.  Even if it is wrong, it's not going to be wrong by a large amount.  It could be 14 days, but if you pay attention to trucks delivering food to the stores and how frequently they are there, you know that they must be continually be restocked.  After about a week of JIT supply chains breaking down, I really wouldn't want to be a national guardsman pulling duty guarding stores unless somehow food was getting shipped in by then.  With as many guns as there are in this country, there would be no controlling that. 

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 14:54 | 5819098 Psquared
Psquared's picture

I don't see how an economic crash or even systemic failure would wipe out civilization. A meteor or nuclear war yes, but not bad planning by governments or central banks.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 19:11 | 5820208 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

The latest planetary alignment appears to lend itself to massive CME events on the sun. 

Look up Carrington Event.  

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:16 | 5819746 duo
duo's picture

He forgot to mention topsoil depletion, which will cause starvation no matter what Monsanto or Dow does.

Don't forget ISIS taking over the West and returning us to the 8th century, WITH depleted topsoil.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:08 | 5819619 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Is this sarcasm?

Lack of farming tools, transportation, food, drink, meds, replacement parts, food stores, hardware stores, oil and gas for heat, rule of law, lack of electricity, sewage treatment facilities, TV, computers, manufacturing,. All of it would cease and we would die of starvation, exposure, thirst, violence, previously curable diseases, But, worst of all, would be the loss of ZeroHedge and you, dear ZHers.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 14:50 | 5819087 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

No, no, no!

The number one threat are outstanding looking actresses of erotica (porn industry to the riff-raff) who get those godawful silicone breast implants and destroy and mar perfection!!!!!

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 18:09 | 5819958 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Made by, let me guess, Diebold.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 17:30 | 5819820 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

I like my species the way it is. -- Lt. Worf

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 11:29 | 5818274 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

Oh noooo! Living causes dying! OMG! Where do we hide? I got it, this is just a front for more Hollywood movies about the world coming to an end. And in your heart you know it will.

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