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Why Germany Will Throw Up On The Greek "Reform Proposals": Wage Hikes, Foreclosure Protection, "Red Lines"
For those keeping tabs on the Greek tragicomedy, now in its 5th season, today before midnight Yanis Varoufakis will submit a list of "reform measures" it plans to undertake to the Troika, pardon, Institutions. But while we patiently await the reveal of the full list of proposed Greek reforms, we can fast forward to the German reaction, because we already know what it will be:
Why? Because as Bloomberg reported earlier today, citing government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis says in interview broadcast live on Skai TV today, the Greek government will implement legislation allowing taxpayers to repay overdue taxes in 100 installments. This not new: in fact, it was proposed back in November, when Greek Enikos said "the country's international lenders are not pleased with the new law voted by the government, which allows tax payers to pay off their debts towards the State in 100 installments."
So while the Troika will ask why nothing has been done on this until now, Greece will have no retort but instead will say that the easier repayment terms for overdue taxes will boost liquidity in state coffers especially since the cash situation “is not easy.”
Among the other proposal is that the government will introduce legislation tackling NPLs issue in the summer, not immediately; target is to strengthen country’s financial system. This is a key issue because Greek NPLs, currently around 40%, are far above where Cyprus banks were in March 2013 when the infamous bail in hit.
Which begs the question: why does anyone assume that just because Greece has a deal, as tentative as it may be, that the Greek bank run is over? If anything, the local banks have merely bought the local population some breathing room in which to quietly and effectively withdraw as much ECB-backed funds as they can before the capital controls and/or "bail-in" trapdoor slams shut.
But what is sure to make Schauble go berserk with rage is that Greece is now openly tearing apart the "existing programme" with its firm demand that the protection of primary residences from foreclosure will be upheld, saying that it creates no burden for banking system or the state budget: a state budget which as a reminder will be out of cash some time this week!
Needless to say Germany will cross this proposal out with a very bright, very red pen.... as well as then next: "Minimum wage will be raised gradually until 2016, to allow businesses to adapt to labor cost increase."
At this point Germany will point out the deflationary vortex in which Greece has been stuck in the past 5 years and say "what labor cost increases", and cross that "reform" as well.
We also learn the Greek government plans to restore labor relations, labor law, collective bargaining saying the current regime resembles “dark age" (it does - thank the common currency for putting you there) which is incompatible with European labor culture, and will assesses proposals to secure liquidity of pension system, aim is not to cut pensions further. The German response to the latter? You guessed it.
The punchline: "Red lines still apply and government will respect popular mandate."
And... cue Germany's reply:
Because from the start, this was all an exercise in Germany showing Greece that no, the popular mandate, is irrelevant when Germany pays the bills, which will be the case as long as Greece is in the Eurozone.
And this is why as soon as Germany sees the Greek "reform" proposal it will stamp it with "Nein, Nein, Nein" from top to bottom, and tomorrow's "emergency" Eurogroup meeting is assured, in which the Troika throws back the proposal in Greece's face and demands that it strip all its "reforms" to comply with whatever was in the original memorandum, in the process making the Tsipras government nothing more than an extension of the hated Samaras administration.
Because Greece bluffed... and lost, and now it no longer has any leverage in negotiations with Europe until the next, even more unpredictable Greek government, comes to power.
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nein, diene mutti ist sehr gutt in bett
Do the German people actually have a say in this?
I hope Golden Dawn (the next Greek government) sells tickets to watch their negotiations with the Troika on Pay-per-View.
Could you imagine the Greeks standing up and "Sieg Heil"ing when Schäuble wheels himself into the room?
Would be hilarious.
@getzeegold No the german people don't have a say, and neither do the greek people, don't you get it? Government (even democracy) is tyranny. Democracy just fills people with rainbow-unicorn-shit emotions of 'popular rule' and 'representative government'. STATISM IS JUST THE SYSTEMIZATION OF VIOLENCE AND EXTORTION. No government is legitimate, and I don't care if 99% of my countrymen 'VOTE' to restrict my freedoms, because I don't acknowledge that result.
Fuck the german government, fuck the greek government, and fuck all governments around the world.
seems a lil extreme............GW assured us we were bringing democracy to Iraqi people.....and I just don't believe he lied to us
Everything is Awesome!
Centrally planned markets (mark-its) in conjunction with bought and paid for media always rock on forever.
Greece will be bailed out, again, every day between noon and 3, yet not bailed out after market cash close.
Would it be possible to dye the German dude's hair black and put a little black mustache under his nose.
And, while you're at it put an SS Death Head's cap on his head, a swastika armband around his right arm, and a Nazi flag hanging behind him.
And, oh by the way, let the Panzer Divisions roll.
At this point it's rather difficult to determine whether you'd rather have German Debt Bombs dropping on your head or the real thing.
GW assured us we were bringing democracy
Soooo.....we're back full circle to Bush?
It's been over 6 years......let it go man.
you mean Jeb Bush promised he will send his brother to trial, if he gets elected as Bush The Third President of America? Or at least Bush II's Vice Prez?
"let it go man" -> say that to the Bush Dinasty, will you?
Clearly you've never read a damn thing I've ever written.
Soooo....here's the picture again.
Do you suppose anyone in the media is going to ask Jeb about this?
https://s.yimg.com/fz/api/res/1.2/Q_.aCXlykZoaOOJvg.kMlg--/YXBwaWQ9c3JjaGRkO2g9NDUwO3E9OTU7dz02MDA-/https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/grubering-us-bush-murdoch-jarrett.jpg?w=640
"Clearly you've never read a damn thing I've ever written." - well, most of the times you just joke around, don't you? Explain this meeting, then. Fundraising? You can't get elected in the US without using boatloads of money and plenty of media mogul support. Not in the US
No one does Alinsky like you amigo....nice to see you back.
why should I care who this Alinsky is? or even bother to look it up in order to understand your reference? The American President is of importance for the whole world
The reasoning behind who gets elected and why, on the other side, is a pure American internal national matter. and as cryptic as American politics, for outsiders
why should I care who this Alinsky is
Amen brother.....there's a lot to be said for staying stupid.
Amen brother.....there's a lot to be said for staying stupid.
LOL, that is the majority of USSA population.
Jonathan Gruber agrees with you ;-)
Someday Gruber is going to die....and then you'll all be sorry.....or he'll have one hell of a cult following.
Maybe both.
Are you sure that was Jeb Bush in the picture with Murdoch?
It kinda resembled Glenn Beck from talk radio.
Over your head like a 747.....who's the third person in that picture?
What should not be there?
"Amen brother.....there's a lot to be said for staying stupid." sure. I follow the internal politics of some 40 countries, while you have still not explained your picture
btw, there is a difference between ignorant and stupid. now you have learned something, and are less ignorant
now please would you stop thinking that the whole world should know who Alinsky is? or explain why they should? does it have an influence on US foreign policy?
Alinsky is only the mentor/icon of crony-socialist freaks of nature everywhere, who see fairies riding unicorns instead of what they really are, wraiths riding dragons.
Ya know, like Hillary & King Obama.
now I even remember. the radical "community organizer". but not everywhere. as far as I know, only in America. after all, the rest of the world has socialists of every brand and kind
that Alinski should have any relevance to anybody outside of the US is still beyond me
Well he does and King Obama made a big deal out of his "community organizing" so lets turn it over to Saul:
ALINSKY: Sometimes it seems to me that the question people should ask is not "Is there life after death?" but "Is there life after birth?" I don't know whether there's anything after this or not. I haven't seen the evidence one way or the other and I don't think anybody else has either. But I do know that man's obsession with the question comes out of his stubborn refusal to face up to his own mortality. Let's say that if there is an afterlife, and I have anything to say about it, I will unreservedly choose to go to hell.
PLAYBOY: Why?
ALINSKY: Hell would be heaven for me. All my life I've been with the have-nots. Over here, if you're a have-not, you're short of dough. If you're a have-not in hell, you're short of virtue. Once I get into hell, I'll start organizing the have-nots over there.
PLAYBOY: Why them?
ALINSKY: They're my kind of people.
You didn't think I bought Playboy just to look at the pretty pictures did you? ;-)
True, there is no liberalism in the US. Only fringe parties who have NO CHANCE in "open primary" states like, sigh, my state of California.
Greece is everything Alinski hoped for. Communists have always understood that to effectively dominate a society they must first collapse it with unpayable entitlements. The key is to demand more from government not less. Using the power of democracy to empower theft.
Just Leave sHitlery Alone
Wake me up when this fucker finally collapses.
Exculsive unreleased audio of the marathon EU meeting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQeKskCvJwc
<<you mean Jeb Bush promised he will send his brother to trial, if he gets elected as Bush The Third President>>
Bush and Clinton aren't so much dynasties, as crime syndicates. Anyone who still thinks 'voting' is a good idea in a diebold election bought with bank counterfeit, almost deserves to have a election roster limited to two war criminals. The only reason they even hold these showpony 'elections' is to try to make the citizens seem complicit by mandate.
Bush = war criminal. Clinton = war criminal. Diebold will give one of them a mandate by machine, but no citizen of good conscience should lift a finger to give them the smallest support. Don't show up for them, don't make excuses by comparing them with each other. Each is as evil as the other; they are one and the same. Make diebold install one of them all by itself, and it doesn't matter which.
Clinton may be a war criminal, but Bush is more in the league with Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Lincoln, and Lyndon Johnson.
Obama is still in Clinton's minor league, but if he manages to start WW3 with Russia and China then he will have achieved a legacy of war crimes that will outshine even Mr. Gravitas.
It is unethical to vote for a war criminal. I only vote for the candidate that will kill the fewest people. I'm voting Green.
Does your morality tell you that death through starvation is more moral than a bullet to the head?
At least third-party voters are trying to support someone they think would make a good leader.
I honestly can't figure out what Bush and Clinton supporters are thinking. Or if they are thinking at all.
Yea don't understand why people say you need to vote for x person to stop y person getting in power. That's as far removed from democracy as you can get.
Okay....Germany thought the American system was great which surrounded the dollar, and wanted to replicate it.
So, in America we have at least 50 million system parasites, and you could probably double that if we go beyond our borders.
So...Germany is getting their wish, they're becoming like America...all they need to do now is just admit they've got a few million parasites they're going to need to take care of forever. Welcome to Parasite Nation.
The truly sad thing is that such an obvious statement even needs to be said. Even sadder? That people would rather apathetically participate in this evil rather than acknowledge their own support of it (as evidenced by the down-votes).
As long as criminals control the education system, this form of indoctrination will continue, and their children will be fed to the war-machine that inevitably provides society with a violent reset. Otherwise, they might have to admit they were wrong.
Can't have that, now can we?
We have had the war machine much longer than collectivized education. When will we accept the nature of humanity rather than continue to empower people to rule over us in hopes of making us something different? We lament people behaving as sheep while forced to realize it is only as sheep that we will ever conform to a centrally planned society.
@MarketAnarchist - brilliantly said. Government, and especially democracy (including representative / constitutional) is a sham. Democracy gives people the illusion that they wield political power when in fact they are merely slaves. Voting is a complete waste of time and a morally reprehensible act of violence. I can vote to give my rights away but I cannot vote to take yours. Moreover, I do not have the moral authority to appoint a legal or political master over others against their will.
<<Voting is a complete waste of time and a morally reprehensible act of violence.>>
Which is why the election roster (of Two Authorized Selections) is rapidly being reduced to known crime families. Ignorant voters are running out of excuses for their show of support. I'm amazed that these crime syndicates can still get anyone to show up at their rallies. I bet a lot of attendees are paid to be there. Appearance is everything when you have access to a legalised counterfeiting machine.
But actually voting for one of these pieces of scum? There is no excuse.
Maybe you should research the places where the government collapsed and see the result. Do your own research.
"STATISM IS JUST THE SYSTEMIZATION OF VIOLENCE AND EXTORTION." -- Yes, but that which cannot be sustained, won't be. it is and always has been about power and control over real resources, including the human kind. Beat the fuckers to the punch, wait for them to reveal themselves, then take their fucking heads.
Same as it ever was.
"Fuck the german government, fuck the greek government, and fuck all governments around the world."
We're gonna need more condoms
Nazis? No problem. The western public got used to them in Ukraine. Nazis are ok nowadays if they fight for freedom'n'democracy.
How come Germany came to become debt collector for Goldmann Sachs? In former times it was the other way around.
(P.S: I have the CR on above sentence.)
Nah, the western public was told that the Nazis are the "Russian-backed" sepratists.
Remember the fake pamphlet psyop following the coup once it became obvious it was the Nazis that ran the coup for "Fuck the EU!" Nuland?
Good times...
you are applying quite a lot of spin in the above
first, the major use of the "Nazi" label is, of course, by the pro-Russian side. too much history on that side
second, define Western media. you do mean that in English, don't you?
third, "Russian-backed"? denial of Russian involvement is at the same level of denial of US, UK and Polish involvement
fourth, was the "coup" for Nuland? and by "Nazis" only? I remember a vastly more complicated story, with hundreds of thousands in Maidan. All nazis and all paid by Nuland?
I'd say a nazi is one that is proud of that label. plenty of those around, without any need to use that label for others. fascist is a fine, clear label, too
I knew you are borderline retarded moron but now I know you are a history-distorting, Nazi-apologizing asshole.
explain to me where I was nazi-apologizing, if you can. yes, in my experience real nazis are quite proud of being nazis, at least among themselves
explain to me why anybody should be labeled as nazi when fascist is completely sufficient. or explain which strange button I pushed, in your psyche
There is a distiction between Nazis and fascists which I make use of when appropriate. When race-hatred comes into play I omit all those semantics and call this bastards such as the Ukrainian Nazis by what they are: Nazis, i.e. low-life scum driven by hatred and a thirst to kill.
True, the race angle is the hallmark of Nazism. Or, more accurately, the MANAGEMENT by race.
So you claim that the USSA is Nazi and not fascist? The current administration is one of the most racist administrations in the history of the United States.
Racism does not always manifest itself as actively malevolent. Favored races and favored classes are just as harmful and detrimental as Death Camps. It serves to breed resentment and the blowback that will end up in Death Camps.
Oh I will agree that it can get worse...but...not much worse. In fact it will...
so you make a personal distinction between a fascist and a race-hatred fascist (aka nazi). very... Italian (and understandable) of you
your distinction is fine, but does not help anybody being beaten down to death for political instead of race reasons by a fascist squad, does it? For example, take the discourse of Mussolini in front of Parliament on January the 3rd, 1925, and his way of explaining the responsibilities of the Giacomo Matteotti killing
Nope, the distinction isn´t fine, it´s stupid. Fascism always includes racism, racism is one of the defining features of fascism. The Italians under Mussolini committed mass murders and genocides in Africa in the name of their racial superiority long before the Nazis came to power in Germany.
Wolferl, this is not the way many Italians see their history or that of Italian Fascism. Particularly some of the die-hard supporters of the Movement, and I have talked with many of them, in my life, but also from the other sides of the political spectrum
It is not so. Here is what person who coined the term said what fascism is:
"Fascism should be rightly called corporatism, as it is the merger of state and corporate power." ~ Benito Mussolini
Correct Dathedr.
Ad "Racism": It is poorly defined because it is actually very stupid terminology, see Wikipedia, e.g. Most times it is used, the person who uses it is an accomplished moron. I use it nevertheless, alonside with "Nazi", at times, because I have not found a better term yet for a person who is a member of a group that regards the members of another group as sub-human with the goal to taper over his own deep complex of inferiority and to satisfy his most despicaple, repugnant tendencies a human being is capable of such as killing, torturing, abusing, inciting hatred, mass-murdering. In the case of the euphemistically "volunteer batallions" called Ukrainians, I see all these criteria as fulfilled.
Hop that helps.
I agree. But Western definiton of racism is something which goes along these lines: if you do not like someone and don't want to share your breathing space, livelihood and biological attributes which have developed over million years with them, then you are racist. According to that Anglo logic, anyone not willing to live in a global world (which is run by whom, you might ask youself? the answer would stand by those who had put that Anglo description there), is racist. That is the logic of Western breed of idiots called the libtards anyway. By that logic, not willing to breed with animals is also racist. I dare you to have sex with a dog or a horse (I came to my attention that nowadays it is popular to have sex with degs, horses, apes and other animals in the West; it is called beastility, lol). Well, if you refuse, then you are racist. :)
It is always thus with Anglos, it has always been some sexual degenerations with them. Just read Walter Scott for example. He perfectly described the mentality and customs, if you can call it that, of degenerates Anglos of that day. They were like rabid dogs, they would rape everything which came into contact with them. Raping nuns was their speciality. Now, when you allow that kind to make desciptions and go along with it, disaster inevitably follows.
Schäuble will roll into the room next Friday evening 26th February and sign. He respects the weekends. Before there will be some back and forth. Maybe Syriza will change coalition partner, maybe we will see some resignations but Friday we will have a final deal.
Greece should have gone down Golden Dawn path all along. At least they wouldn't have been so blatantly tricked and lied to. You don't fuck with nationalist, that what globalist Western oligarchs have known the whole time; there is a reason why, in the end, they are so afraid and appaled, why they are so allergic to nationalism.
Just so to hopefully somewhat inform people here, for I see that some have trouble with describing fascism et. al, nationalism stands for loyalty and devotion to your nation placing primary emphasis on promotion of your culture or country's interest. That is what nationalism by its definition is. Now, most of European nationalism was born in 19th century, as there was no Italian or German nation, for example, prior to 19th century; only many Germanic and Italian states, and the sole factor in differentiating German from Italian, or Polish from German for example, was culture: those states which had predominantly Germanic culture were considered Germanic, those which had Italian were regarded as Italian, and so forth. European nationalism did not have the time to develop properly, as WW1 started soon after its birth, and WW2 followed even sooner afterwards, so my hope is that this time will be different.
GetZee, sure they do, just like we have a say in what goes on in Amerika as regards starting and continuing insane wars, spending absurd amounts of money on useless projects, and making sure ALL the banksters that broke our system are indicted, tried and jailed. Yup, the people have a lot of say.
Germany doesn't even have to care that much if Greece melts down.
The reason markets are so complacent is because, unlike the first Greek crisis, the banks are today not holding the Greek debt, IMF, ECB and the Troika do. And we all know what Central Bankers do when there is a need for more money.
I think, contrary to what people would like to think, Germany is actually happy making Greece melt down and bleed, because that ought to teach the other P I I G S that if you mess with us, look, you will bleed like Greece, so don't try it.
This is where I think Germany stands and the banks do not care, because they got out years ago.
Just so.
I hate government on principle, but Mutti does her homework.
We'll find out soon if that matters.
No only the fat and lazy Greeks!
Fighting for those "Growth" policies. Syriza is the biggest let down. All bark and no bite.
He was made an offer he couln't refuse........
As someone said it here: There's no reason why they couldn't reintroduce the Drachma anyway. Massive Greek fail.
I can only wonder how many of them didn't realize this would be the only option presented?
This is an excellent trap that the Greeks have put the Germans into. I see that the Germans wanting ot have Grece out of the Eurozone before Greece falls (even more) apart so that it can blame Grexit, and not it's policies. In that way, it can keep Portugal, Italy and Spain on the chokechain. As someone else wrote, the Germans now TOTALLY own the austerity program within Greece. I think this was a much better play by Tsipras than people realize given the cards his government had been dealt. If I were Tspiras, he can now just throw up his hands and say "default" as his sensible attempts to address the problem were spurned ... by Frankfurt. Worse, he can put forward plans for a referendum which cannot be stopped unless the Greek government dies in mysterious circumstances. Let's hope he doesn't have any nailguns in his home.
The problem for Berlin and Frankfurt is that Greek backed down with enough concessions to lob that ball right back into Troika's^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Germany's court. If the Germans reject this, I expect Syriza may just pull the plug. The problem then becomes that if Frankfurt (let's not joke around here and realize just how is running this show here) can smack around wee-old Greece like this, or to continue to delude themselves that the can extend and pretend unsustainable debt into the future, they've got another thing coming.
The only people who don't seem to know what's really going on is in Frankfurt and Brussels.
I agree with the direction you are going. Tspiras is not a normal politician, they know the plan will fail. They know they will default. Problem is getting there with the least disruption or largest consensus.
Current Greek government is being treated as a vassal kingdom of the Troika, that will not last long. It might if they didn't have Russia whispering in their ears and China hungering for ports. They are delaying until spring when the real action will hit the streets around the Eurozone.
"
It was foolish of the lenders. Well, it wasn't. The lenders knew they'd get bailed out. All they had to do is throw a little money around political and journalistic circles.
International finance is no better than loansharking and the mafia.
I don't really either Russia China finding that much value in Greek ports. However, in terms of generating influence, it's not a stretch to see Moscow or Beijing from offering to move forward with agreements with the Greeks.
The problem is that either capital making a move would be very unwelcome by the established powers. Interference and influence peddling is our game, and we don't like competition.
How much aid did Russia give Cuba over the the years ? Not much value in Cuba either other than location. This game is far from over.
Did the Greek populace really have much to decide when taking on the yoke of the debts ? What the German government could not take with military force they take with debt servitude ?
CUba played a part in the Cold War and there were some ideological connection between the government in Havana and the governmenti in Moscow.
I'd be surprised that if at the end of the day, the cost-benefit analysis works out for either party here. For Cuba, it was a no brainer so it's not really comparable to comparing that to Greece of 2015. The differences between governments in Russia and Greece are pretty stark, actually. The only commonality they have is that they are both being maligned by basically the same elite groups in the Western world. Is that commonality strong enough? Probably not, and that's before we even discuss the ramifications both governments have calculated.
I think that we are confusing the real facts
For my money it's developed into a power
struggle between the USA & Germany.
Without the US their wouldn't be an EU.
The US has gone along with it so long as they
have a control of influence over Europe,
much easier to speak with 1 government than
all the different Governments. When that no
longer is the case then extreme chaos is coming to your neighbourhood. Germany think
about the money but the US objective is CONTROL ! Don't rule out a deal with the
US in some shape or form, don't think they
would let the Greeks come under Russian
or Chinese influence.
So what are the solutions? Payment is not one of them. So either there is default, which with the leveragesand derivatives in place will be nuclear. Or else their is the continuance of the prior policies of pretention. The only reason pretending is failing is that it has become too transparent, that other countries want to pretend as well, something that no amount of delusion can sustain. So the game is to beat and publically humiliate the Greeks which allows them to continue on their current path while making an example of them for the other members. This problem has no solution, only actions that can possible extend and pretend. The solution IS destruction, and it is not our destruction the Delusionists fear, but their own.
+1 for Hal. I would bet on the referendum. Greece needs to string this along and build its mandate and build popular demand and resolve for what will be a very painful struggle - and keep the pressure building throughout Europe! Whatever pain Germany can inflict on Greece, the popular support for it from the common people and the patriots throughout Europe will build until no object lesson will be sufficient to stop them. But that takes time and work.
I was right with this article until the last sentence:
"Because Greece bluffed... and lost, and now it no longer has any leverage in negotiations with Europe until the next, even more unpredictable Greek government, comes to power."
It's a very strange thing about Tyler. Sometimes he seems to have a glimmer about how a revolution unfolds, at others he seems clueless.
I agree with you guys. (Hal, Payne, Whywait.) Tyler is missing a likely strategy here. This doesn't look like a 'fold' to me, altho the Germans certainly marketed it that way. (I thought Schauble's little dig on Friday was WAY too obvious. A complete tell on what the Germans want the marketing to look like, and on how personally Schauble is taking the whole thing.) To me, this looks strategic on the part of Syriza. Allowing the troika to stampede Greece out of the euro right out of the gate, without even a mandate to do that, would have been stupid for any government let alone a brand new one.
Now Greece can build its foundation for a more orderly exit. Since when is "more time" (with further conditions to be determined) BAD for a debtor?
The entire MSM is trying to paint this situation as GREECE under pressure - not its creditors. As we all know, MSM spin is the opposite of reality. Unless the troika can stampede Greece out fast, they'll have no power to prevent Greece making its own arrangements while under the euro umbrella.
"More time"? The weekend and a bank-holiday-Monday is hardly a great achievement.
Four months' more time. Six would have been good, but four months is better than "by Monday", typical troika rushing. And rushing is all the troika has at this point.
Wait, you say, they haven't agreed to four months yet? But I thought everyone was upset b/c the can was successfully kicked? :-)
So...either the can was successfully kicked (four months - Greece has upper hand), or it wasn't (situation same as last week, with euro about to break up any day - Greece has upper hand).
Only way troika wins here is if Greeks agree to continue austerity. Still looks to me like that ain't happening, which judging from this article Tyler agrees. I'll eat a nice tasty slice of crow pie, though, if Syriza agrees to and implements a list of austerity conditions acceptable to troika.
Mish has a good writeup on the troika's dilemma here:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2015/02/tspiras-claims-to-have...
He discusses the cave-in aspect of agreeing to conditions, and speculates the Greece's account surplus may have disappeared. He then wraps up as follows:
<<To default on the Troika and stay in the eurozone, Greece must have a primary account surplus. Tsipras has a four month window to achieve that... In context, the battle was to stay on the euro. The war was postponed for four months. In the interim, Tsipras needs to keep his coalition intact. Once again, I do not care for the leftist policies of Syriza. But the citizens of Greece have suffered enough and are better off defaulting as soon as they can. That requires a primary account surplus. On Friday German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble rubbed Greek capitulation in Tsipras' face with his comment... Let's see what happens four months from now. With roles reversed and Schäuble playing the witch, I envision Tsipras' silently saying "All in good time my little pretty, in good time".>>
Is she really?
und deine schwester!
Rather poor German I'm afraid and entirely off-topic.
bad german
in the right form:
nein, deine mutter ist sehr gut im bett
Are you people aware that real germans won't feel insulted by such a statement?! Typical german thought would be: "Well, of course she is - it is my mother after all."
If you'd call her a pile of shit, on the other hand ....
annex greece, they already are financialy
Finish the damn sentence......the suspense is killing me.
we are talking about greece, the sentence never ends.
moar debt, because we can't have any hope and change going on.
The last time Germany tried that it didn't end well for them.
There's no reason why they couldn't reintroduce the Drachma anyway.
FUCK THE EU! Enough of it already!!
It is very interesting to me that the government of Germany, whos idea it was to ever loan Greece any money to begin with, will blame this entire incident on the Greeks. As if the Greeks have anything at all to do with the German government.
And Gold In Sacks keeps shtum, very shtum.
Pumpkin It is very interesting to me that the government of Germany, whos idea it was to ever loan Greece any money to begin with, will blame this entire incident on the Greeks. As if the Greeks have anything at all to do with the German government.
------
So you are suggesting the Greek government was FORCED to take on loans the Greeks serfs could't pay?
I disagree. You play with the devil (the devil being debt, not Germany), you pay the price.
Shall the US blame foriegn treasury bond holders for calling those bonds, or is it the fault of the US living beyond its means? I can't blame a loan shark for wanting his money. That is why I don't deal with loan sharks.
You need to educate yourself on the term Economic Hitman. But realize that even if you accept the idea that other instutions may befriend you but have ulterior motives, that doesn't excuse the fact you decided to deal with such devilish characters. Most people take the easy route out to ease the short term economic pain. It's callled kicking the can. But the pain is much worse later then the can can't be kicked any longer. It's also why you see politicians making promises they can't deliver.
Greece is kicking the can regarding its own solvency. Germany is kicking the can regarding its own finances and the state of the EU (the importance being on Germany's finances first over the EU). Really I don't care who blnks first.
You pay the price if you don't play with the devil, debt - see "Confessions of an Economic Hitman."
Defiant Greek people against the stubborn Germans.
Unless the German Leopard 2 tanks start rolling into Greece nothing is changing. Maybe when Merkel grows a middle mustache.
you mean when she stops shaving it
If Greece leaves, it suffers short term pain and the Banksters get fucked really hard. Oh wait, the Russkies did offer to help.so, the statement reduces to "If Greece leaves, the Banksters get fucked really hard."
If Greece stays, it will get bbqed slowly over the fire.
Choose one. Seems easy.
The only question is that if Greece's fallback plan B is Drachma print, will it sustain or cave in the Greek economy faster?
And what will the Greek military do in the interim with a radical unexperienced government at the helm, defying all of Europe?
The geopolitics of the game will put Syriza under huge pressure in an unstable state. Can Tipsy take that risk?
An article in the April 19, 2012, British newspaper the Guardian explained the impact of the years of weapons purchases:
“According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute … from 2002 to 2006, Greece was the world’s fourth biggest importer of conventional weapons. It is now the 10th.
“‘As a proportion of GDP, Greece spends twice as much as any other EU member on defense. … Well after the economic crisis had begun, Germany and France were trying to seal lucrative weapons deals even as they were pushing us to make deep cuts in areas like health,’ said Dimitris Papadimoulis, who now represents Syriza in the European Parliament.”
For many years, Greece was the biggest customer in Europe for German military corporations and also a major purchaser of French weapons. These are the two imperialist countries that hold the largest share of Greek debt.
The contracts for these weapons purchases and decades of maintenance and parts supplies are provided by bank loans from the countries supplying the weapons — Germany, France and the United States. The incentive for the huge unneeded purchases is a network of bribes from the military corporations, especially to the generals and top political leaders.
Angelos Philippides, a prominent Greek economist, explained: “For a long time Greece spent 7 percent of its GDP on defense when other European countries spent an average 2.2 percent. If you were to add up that compound 5 percent from 1946 to today, there would be no debt at all.
“‘If Athens had cut defense spending to levels similar to other EU states over the past decade, economists claim it would have saved around €150bn — more than its last bailout. Instead, Greece dedicates up to €7bn a year to military expenditure — down from a high of €10bn in 2009.” (Guardian, April 19, 2012)
“‘Since the 1974 invasion of Cyprus, Greece has spent 216 billion euro on armaments,’” said Katerina Tsoukala, a Brussels-based security expert.” (Guardian) This amount is far larger than the Greek debt at the time the 2008 capitalist crisis hit. The purchases included German submarines, Mirage fighter jets from France and F-16 jets from the U.S. and 1,300 tanks.
According to SIPRI statistics, even though Greek military spending has declined since the crisis, Greece is the second-biggest defense spender (in relation to its GDP) among the 27 NATO countries, after the U.S.
Past military regime in Greece
Since the beginning of the Cold War between the imperialist West and the Soviet Union, the Greek military has played an extremely privileged and thoroughly reactionary role in maintaining capitalist rule and keeping Greece within the U.S.-commanded NATO military alliance. With full support of U.S. and British imperialists and of Greek fascists, the Greek military fought a violent civil war from 1945 to 1949 against anti-fascist workers organized by the Communist Party of Greece — the KKE. Communist-led partisans had driven out the German occupation forces at the end of World War II.
U.S. President Harry Truman in 1947, in what became known as the Truman Doctrine, pledged unlimited military support to defeat growing workers’ movements throughout the world following the World War II surrender of Nazi-led Germany. This policy facilitated brutal coups and decades of military repression in Greece, Turkey and Iran. In Greece in 1947, the communists were defeated militarily and outlawed.
In 1967, using a NATO strategic plan, Greek colonels again seized power and set up a ruling junta, which stayed in control until 1974. The army moved in 1967 to stop the Socialist Party under George Papandreou from taking office with a center-left coalition. This brutal military junta, called the Regime of the Colonels, ruled by martial law, mass arrests, torture and disappearances. Today’s extreme right-wing fascist party, Golden Dawn, has its origins in the police units that operated with impunity during the junta’s rule.
Although ousted by a mobilized mass movement in 1974, the military and police hierarchy was untouched, except for the prosecution of a handful of coup leaders.
Source of corruption
Greek military contracts have always been the greatest source of corruption, payoffs, kickbacks and secrecy. The bribery by major military corporations infects every level of the military. Continuing scandals surrounding military contracts have rocked past administrations. The most notorious bribery scandal involves billions paid over 12 years and billions still owed for six yet-undelivered German submarines. Former Minister of Defense Akis Tsochadzopoulos was convicted in 2013 of accepting $8 million in bribes connected to these submarines.
Given this history, the appointment of the right-wing Greek Independence Party to head the Defense Ministry in the Syriza cabinet is an especially ominous development. It certainly implies that the past onerous military loans and secret payoffs will not be challenged.
An enormous battle is ahead for the workers in Greece. Political agitation and clear demands targeting the generals enmeshed with the UE bankers who have enriched themselves in the Greek debt trap will help prepare the workers to understand who their enemy is and what they are up against.
http://www.workers.org/articles/2015/02/10/greek-debt-austerity-and-past...
@ trader1
Nice. Nicely refreshing good summary. Informative and raising the most salient points/issues.
You can see similar patterns fester worldwide.
As i have referred to in the past, the Western Elites, receive their WEALTH from Front Loading obscene amounts of munitions on a Sovereign to quell uprisings via an over zealous junta and military police.
At the very best officer training DARK OPS ACADEMIES/CAMPS in UK, US and FRANCE the Offspring of Dictators across the CAPTURED GLOBE are PRIMED to RINSE & REPEAT.
All knew on Friday, so why do we need the week end + Monday to know the inevitable? There is a strategy here!
I think the Tylers are underestimating Varoufakis. He and Syriza couldn't just bluff and take the offensive. When Germany says Nein, Syriza will have the support if the Greek people and parliament. That's when Greece can play mutually assured destruction and Germany / DB (which is hyperlevered against fundamentals with derivative exposure enough to take EU down, let alone Germany) has MUCH more to lose. When you take everything from people, there's no need to cooperate...
as you say ts - (note to spectators: this is a loooong spectacle the new band just entered the amphitheatre)
You guys figured it out. Everyone WANTS it all to be over now - today - by Monday at the latest. But as we've all seen from this long slow global collapse, a short-term perspective is easy to fool.
,,,,,,,no,,,,,we want it to be ,,,,,,started by today or tomorow,,,,,,
Don't fight with someone who has nothing to lose.
Finally Germany is making a stand. Greece must leave the Euro Zone immediately otherwise the EURO will collapse when every member decides not to pay its obligations.
I am tired of these countries like Argentina, Greece, etc. claiming that unless we pay the ransom they demand they will take the world economies down. That is not true so stop playing the game. Greece should be paying what they own or out of the EU. Argentina is so corrupt that they kill the prosecutors if they start investigating the government officials. Let’s take the losses now and move on, MOVE ON!!!
STOP LENDING MONEY TO THESE TWO COUNTRIES!!!!
If you think the other crappy Eurozone countries plan on paying their obligations, you are fucking high.
Same goes if you think the USA plans on paying its, or Japan, or Germany. Or China or anywhere else. It's lightyears beyond being serviceable debt at this point. Only way out of this is hyperinflation which equals system collapse for 98% of the people (anything they have is worthless), so it's just gonna be default after default after default until it becomes obvious that this system is fucked.
Money is lent knowing that the borrower is unlikely to repay. When default happens national assets are snapped up for pennies on the dollar. The plan is intentional. This is also the plan for the U.S.
You need to develop some mental separation between the Greek government (jackasses that accumulated the debt) and the Greek people (ones who are unemployed due to austerity).
Moar-on?
"Why does a German try to take over the world? Because he's GERMAN!" - Mr. Panos
Nein! Nein! Nein! Nein! Nein! Nein! http://youtu.be/eDtyVK4h29s?t=1m34s
Thankfully not 10 hours of it.
If what I saw online is correct, the greek minimum wage is about €685/month.
Am rarely on the side of minimum wage hikers, but I will say that there is no fucking way you can survive on 685 euros/month in that over-VAT'd shithole. No wonder people dodge taxes and do shit under the table there like crazy.
The minimum wage was reduced from 900Euros per month to 685 gradually under the austerity program and the so called flexible labour -read flexible rape - laws. An average 2 bedroom flat in Athens costs between 600 - 900 Euros per month to rent so surviving with this amount of money is out of question even without VAT.
ZH has misread Germany over the Greek crisis.
Schaeuble's antics and the lone-wolf Conservative politicians balking at Greece are pure theater.
And EVERYONE knows it.
Yup. These creditors ain't getting paid. All the contracts in the world can't make the impossible happen. Nice to see the ZH comments section is working out the reality, anyway, even if Tyler doesn't seem to see it.
.99999 fine gold ! (translating from the German response)
.99999 fine gold BTFD
but hasn't everyone appropriately hedged against this with derivatives etc? risk is completely eliminated, right?
The core question is perhaps, why should the GR gov deal with social restrictions, taxes, optimisation, etc. when almost all bailout money go directly to its creditors?
Troika may just vote adding some more bns to GR's debt and directly pay this money to creditors, as necessary. Voila.
Um, because they want their salary to be paid in euros rather than drekmas?
Economics Graduates: The A students become gifted, witty posters for free ! The B students become struggling blog administrators and moderators ! The C students advertise their shit on the blog and make all the money !
Now don't be smackin on higher ed.
//s//
An Economics "A" student.
There was nothing to negotiate.
But the Greek Marxists needed the "no" to come from Germany. They needed to show they were trying to work out a deal and that the Germans rejected it. Now they can go back to them and say "See, we tried, they folks won't work with you. Time for the New and Improved Plan!"
If you owe taxes to the Greek gov't, good for you. Continue to not pay that bill. You're the one who really holds all the cards here.
IMHO, it's not the best time to pay your taxes when you don't rely on your income tomorrow.
<<But the Greek Marxists needed the "no" to come from Germany. They needed to show they were trying to work out a deal and that the Germans rejected it.>>
Contract negotiation FTW. I'm kinda surprised Schauble has managed to fool anyone with his little show. I honestly thought he tipped his hand on Friday with that petulant little "explain to Greek voters" line, but it looks like a lot of 'folks', including media, bought it.
The GREEKS hold the whip hand. They have $340 BIL held hostage to the perception it can be paid back in any measure greater than the productivity & reform increase of Greece in the proportion of 1/3 over the next 7 years.
Anyone perceiving more, is in denial, EU, ECB, IMF et al
"EU, ECB, IMF et al" have the psychopaths superiority complex causing them to under-estimate the opposition.
Every news outlet was saying this was a done deal over the weekend even RT and ZeroHedge.
My faith in Syriza wavered and I thought the thugs of Golden Dawn would have to take on the banksters.
Though this did allow a few pleasant thoughts to cross my mind involving senior bankers, lamp posts and piano wire.
Just say NEIN to BUSH and CLINTON
They're already working on our "austerity" package. Where we have increased taxes and they split the loot between their favored Military and Bank Industrial Complex Members.
A clarification here on Greek society:
The Greek people made a silent deal long a ago with their corrupt leaders in terms of we leave you alone then you leave us alone.
The Greek people said, we know you are corrupt and don't care about us therefore we don't care about you and won't obey to your tax laws and in return we leave you alone and don't revolt.
If the Germans, obviously unaware of this silent agreement, think that they can turn that around they've got an other thing coming to them.
Do you think Germans are unaware of the silent agreement they are involved in too?
Of course they knew, the intent is to change it into a one way street headed towards Frankfurt.
germany: vee are sending our bitterest angriest man to negotiate. lulz
Und iff that does not verk, vee vill get really nasty und send ein of our nicest hausfraus.
Now be ein goot boy und zurreder nice like. Vee are only here to help you.
That's the way the krauts operate. First they take what they want and then they try and describe to you the futility of struggling against their actions, first with flattery and then with logic. If those don't work then they steamroll your ass with force. Greece is pretty near the steamroll part.
That is not going to happen I assure you.
Germany can throw up all they want to. As long as they keep giving Greeks money They are the dumbasses.
Hallo German People, fuck you malaka ! ~ Mr. Panos
whatever is in this text
schäuble loves this EU shit
he says nation states are old fashion/ whatever
he WANTS IT
this is the kind of sharade the german public needs/wants to stay calm
btw im german
all rumors are true
hardcore statist and FÜHRER loving people
my guess : greece will stay
and
schäuble says yes yes yes yes secretly
a good actor
,
Schauble/Germans will soon be bleeding Euro's from every Orifice. Too funny.
Voting for more of the problem (socialism)?
Greece is screwed...
Germans will be Germans and Greeks will be Greeks and the results will always be the same.
It seems the Germans are giving the Greeks one last chance to do the right thing. Which is to let the banks fail.
And new branches of foreign banks spring up in their place to handle retail banking.
Syriza receives funding from Gianna Angelopoulous, wife of shipping oligarch Theodore Angelopoulos, and very good buddy of the Clintons. Gianna took a shine to Tsipras and set up his trip to the US in early 2013 (shades of Hillary and David Milliband). Fresh off the trans-Atlantic flight, Tsipras took another to San Francisco to meet Angelo Tsakopoulos, one of the main backers of the Democratic Party and a prominent leader of the Greek-American elite. Tsipras then gave a speech to the Brookings Institute before embarking on an allegedly Soros-funded nationwide tour. From xaameriki Feb 27, 2013:
“The Institute for New Economic Thinking, a well-known George Soros propaganda institution, hosted Tsipras in his lectures around the United States. In his appearances, Tsipras sat with INET representatives, who paid for him to get around as well as got him audiences in prestigious American academic institutions.”
Veroufakis proposes no solution and it will be rejected anyway just to kick him in his ass a they do to a slave. It is all fakery. I have better plan for Greeks. Give a finger to Troika, arrest those banksters and ask were is the money they stole. Problem solved no deficit and high economic grow since no bankster is stealing nothing.