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Case-Shiller Says "Housing Recovery Is Faltering" Despite December Home Prices Jumping Most Since March
Home prices, according to Case-Shiller, rose 0.87% MoM in December (better than the expected 0.6% gain) for the biggest seasonally adjusted monthly gain since March, likely bringing the 'housing recovery is back on track' meme back into play (despite affordablity being a major driver of the slump in home sales). However, non-seasonally-adjusted the rise was a mere 0.1%, which nonetheless managed to snap the 3 consecutive months of sequential price declines.
Seasonally-adjusted home prices jumped most since March in December.
On an annual basis, the increase was 4.46%, above the 4.30%, and the highest annual growth since September.
And yet, despite all this, Case Shiller was anything but optimistic:
“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.
“Movements in home prices show clear regional patterns. The western half of the nation plus Miami and Atlanta enjoyed year-over-year increases of 5% or more. San Francisco and Miami were the strongest. Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas and Atlanta also experienced solid gains. Phoenix was an exception to the western strength with only a 2.4% increase; San Diego was a bit under 5% at 4.8%. The Midwest and Northeast lagged. Boston was the strongest among this weak group with prices up 3.8%. The regional patterns and the weakness in new construction and new sales may reflect decreasing mobility – fewer people moving to different parts of the country or seeking jobs in different regions.”
Here is the full breakdown by major MSA:
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How many times must a dead cat bounce before you declare it deceased?
Nine
Welll then it better be embalmed shortly after the first bounce. ;-)
0,1% is hardly a bounce IMO
That suggests it may be time to just bury the damn cat. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are supposed to be buried by 2018. That might just do it for the housing market anyway.
The way I read the chart, we are in the ninth bounce. Poor kitty.
The time for kitty pity was just after the first impact. At this point I pity the poor clean up crew.
<Which just happens to be me and you.>
I just made the grumpy cat face.
I guess you did. The NSA just emailed me this picture of you. :-)
My property taxes just "RECOVERED" a nice chunk to the city/county...
The average of vapor sales at the high end of the market is high? Who knew?
Yup. Either the chartists don't get it, or they are wordsmitthing.
Did prices rise, or is that only that bigger and/or more expensive homes are selling. Housse in town remain on the market for months. Houses on the hill or the beach are being snapped up like nickles in front of a steamroller.
Keeps inflation going in the "right" direction too. Mission accomplished
I find this number hard to believe given some of the main areas hit by plunging O&G prices were formerly the biggest drivers of the housing bubble. How do unemployed, layoff'ed, scared workers (and ex-workers) buy a house?
Why would they want to buy when their jobs/future/lives are uncertain?
More non-sense from fixed, targeted "Better then Expected" numbers.
Case Shiller is 20 URBAN cities unlike NAR or the FHFA reports. No Oil & Gas drilling in urban metro areas. Houston might be a top 20 city, but remind you that these are settled transactions that may have started in Nov/Dec of 2014.
NAR is totally political & a POS report. The best housing report out there comes from FHFA which uses a same home, plus adjustments for comps approach.
NoVa
Well said.
Thanks - I understand a few topics really well
People are maxing out the loans. If they lose a job their screwed.
More bankster debt maximization.
who cares if they max out everything and never pay it back, we should all max out everything and tell the banksters to go eff themselves. they are doing it to us, why not return the favor.
getting old everyone "bitching" about the same system they drool over.
No one on here is "drooling" over this system.
then why don't we all collectively releave ourselves of this demise and get off the bull shit go round. anyone know how long one can stay in their home after payments have stopped, prior to the stazi showing up? i think i heard tale of 2 years minimum... that should about do it.
Well if it is only houses that cost over $200K that are selling and the recovery is for wealthy people... sure the prices jump in certain cities, in certain regions.
I did a data pull last week or so on Housing. Just saying that house prices jumped doesn't say anything.
They aren't even building homes below $200K. And of the existing homes sales the average/Median price is over $200K. And existing homes sales are not doing well in the North East.
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $750,000 and Over
2014:Q4: 7 Thousands of Units (above 2003 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP75OQ, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP75OQ
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $500,000 and $749,999
2014:Q4: 11 Thousands of Units (above 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP50T74Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP50T74Q
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $400,000 and $499,999
2014:Q4: 10 Thousands of Units (Below 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP40T49Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP40T49Q
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $300,000 and $399,999
2014:Q4: 22 Thousands of Units (Below 2002 Levels)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP30T39Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP30T39Q
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Between $150,000 and $199,999
2014:Q4: 15 Thousands of Units (No recovery, Below 2008 Crash Level)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSP15T19Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSP15T19Q
New Houses Sold by Sales Price in the United States, Under $125,000
2014:Q4: 2 Thousands of Units (No recovery, Below 2008 Crash Level)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, NHSUSSPU12Q, Updated: 2015-01-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NHSUSSPU12Q
Can't even get a 1500 sq foot townhouse/condo in an illegal alien/section 8 infested part of NoVa for $200k these days. During the bust you could swoop in and grab them by the truckload for $125k. Now not so much. I don't think we will ever see RE prices that low again in this area.
Well the Fed got the inflation they were looking for in a few areas. +4% Y/Y for housing, healthcare and utilities seems like they have overshot their 2% target just a bit.
We are simply suffering from definitional deficit. we need to adjust our understanding of recession, growth and sustainability. recession should mean 'it could be worse', growth should mean we are still alive and sustainability should mean death as death is the only truly sustaibable state. once we look at things differently (and take the proper medications) happiness will return.
good times
Death doesn't last forever.
See, I'll leave this dead cow out in the field and eventually it turns into maggots and flies!
“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak.Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.
When I see people using government statistics for unemployment, I know the rest of the article is pure nonsense. These are the smartest people on the planet.? Just plain lazy status quo clowns regurgitating the same old line.
Just make the new houses in a factory in China and then ship 'em over to the port in Los Angeles. Problem solved.
Hey David, "strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate" in normal times would seem to make sense. If one digs deeper, instead of just looking at surface government numbers, you would find that the strong job growth was in oil and gas (good paying jobs) oh shit, and low paying jobs food industry, retail, temp jobs. The declining unemployment rate might have something to do with the lowest participation rate since the 1970's. If millions people aren't counted anymore, then naturally the unemployment rate will gone down.
That's reality, but I guess in a world where extend and pretend is the new normal, where mark to fantasy is solid accounting, one might get confused. It would seem that any metrics used in the past are forgotten, and in the new economy, the same flawed statistics are copy and pasted and used as scripture.
Shale jobs are turning out to be as temporary as anything dreamed up in a 'stimulus plan'.
Coming soon: North Dakota ghost towns.
Most new homes and used homes are being bought in Texas due to the oil recent boom, I dont see that happening right now.
"weakness in new construction and new sales may reflect decreasing mobility – fewer people moving to different parts of the country or seeking jobs in different regions."
Essentially that means the job market - contrary to the statistics - is bad. Even Lumber feels the pain in the job market. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB&p=d1