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The Last 3 Times This Happened, Stocks Rolled Over
Before the world morphed into what it has become, the relationship between stock prices and intraday ranges was somewhat positively correlated (as one would imagine) - higher prices and a steady vol means absolute ranges will trend higher. However, the last few years - and most especially the last few months - as equity index prices soared, so intraday ranges collapsed. In fact, the last 3 times a new low range was made, that marked a local high in stock prices. Along with the fact that the VIX term structure is the steepest since the pre-Bullard collapse, hedging - as opposed to BTFTAH - seems more appropriate in the short-term at least.
The "new" normal - plunging intraday ranges as stocks soar...
The last 3 times (red ovals) range collapsed and rolled over marked short-term tops in stocks.
The "old" normal... not that
And front-end VIX has collapsed compared to mid-term - the steepest VIX curve since the pre-Bullard-save plunge...
Trade accordingly...
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Charts: Bloomberg
h/t AY
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How do you hedge against totally batshit crazy systems?
By going on as much of the government teat as you can stick in your mouth at one time without choking and still breathe.
Jesus, do I have to do all the thinking around here?
That's folding, not hedging.
Sell in May and flee screaming into the hills. Assuming May is not far, far too late
How many Hindenburgs have crashed since we started looking for them?
Was 'belgium' buying hundreds of millions in treasuries?
Was the FED buying stocks?
Were Zero % interest rates in effect?
This time IS different, isn't it?
"How do you hedge against totally batshit crazy systems?"
Buy AAPL and forget about it. .... oh wait....
/LOL! :)
The entire economy is one gigantic iPhone just waiting for the blue screen of death.
"This time IS different, isn't it?"
Not really. The FED quadrupled the balance sheet and everyone is talking deflation, again.
OK , can't help myself, but after all the articles I read stating that "The last time this happened the market crashed" , nothing happened.
Show me the chart that shows the last time this happened, the fed stopped printing
Is it folding, or is it giving a thief exactly what it wants? A thief can only steal that which has been produced.
A principle behind "going Galt."
Don't participate in them, so when they fly apart you're unaffected.
Of course, other people are, so you need to hedge against that, which pretty much translates to stock your pantry deep and make sure you've got ammo.
It's really all about your risk tolerance. Its like a tinder dry forest where fires have been suppressed for 50 yrs. Are you comfortable building your house there? How about if you have a metal roof, your own pond and a 60ft firebreak around the house. Take precautions and expose yourself to risk with limited downside and unlimited upside, if you can. Remember that in the end, no one makes it out alive anyway.
Come on you know what to do buy MOAR MOAR MOAR. BTFD thats all hell what dip just BUY
my neighbor's mother makes $86 /hr on the computer . She has been laid off for 10 months but last month her pay was $21128 just working on the computer for a few hours. go to the website... www.globe-report.com
The operative word being "before".
Only very few places right now that I even see someone saying anything along the lines of "short term weakness" or that they expect a pull back before going higher. The folks who used to say that are all quiet right now. No effing clue what will happen next and when this crazyness will change.
Chart porn, otherwise useless...
Yellen flipping us off is more entertaining and probably tells one alot more about where the market is actually going, any guesses?
the last ten times i've seen articles like this on zh in the past 5 years---they said the market signals were indicating a collapse before the prices exploded higher!
This indicator, like many others posted here, is not a reliable indicator of a market top. This works well for finding a bottom due to the inherent way that the VIX is calculated.
If history is any guide, the collapse won't happen until I capitulate and jump in with both feet. But I'm turning off CNBC and watching Seinfeld reruns so someone else is going to have to trigger it this time.
No worries ladies and gents we have a five foot tall troll with a grey helmut hair cut and a goofy childish voice that will save us all....
Yeah?
Waiting for Bullard's Bullshit just at the right moment.Ya know,this guy might be onto somethin'.More QE to the rescue.We'll smother you in money,dropped from helicopters.
Baaaaahh. ....stop it. This tyme it's different.
This shiz is gettin olde.
Even a broken clock is right 1ce a month... (just comparing zh's calls for e o world vs. World NOT ending. )
But other than that ...spot on.
This crying wolf bs ONLY gives ammo to the bad guys..I hope that sinks in at SOME level. No friggin wonder everyone looks at us like our tinfoil hats are on backwards. .. jesus fuck.
I swear i sometimds feel as ZH is anothdr one of the 'controlled opposition' sites.. juuusst enough f'd up info to the tards to be dangerous. .but ..no resolution. .no help..no advice...just enough rat intestine to chew on.
Im sure most of yall have jobs right?.. how can all ye regulars be postin the same ol prop..day in day out..during business hours. Do you get paid?... or screw your jobs over to chill all day?.. then complain bout 'the rich taking advantage of you'..?
For shame. There are honest people gettin f'd daily.. fuck it...
Wheres the clever retort..so we can go about our business? ...
Dang..lotta 'smarfone typos'... my bad.
Stocks never go down. The only thing what can bring down stocks is when Zerohedge gets bullish.
Still too soon. They're waiting for the fourth blood moon in September for the final nail in the coffin.
Because everyone is running the UpperDeck play. Sell vol while pumping the bid on low volume to unload shares into call OI. The Protection Racket mastered it with MOMO stocks (and effectively stole from fundamentally oriented investors by using to it harness ETF rebalancing to gut ETFs of fundamentally solid companies and stuff then with predatory trading scams). Now, many more understand the game. The descent will not be an accident. It is almost 3 years of glorified theft via abuse of asymmetric leverage, knowledge of positions and control of float/money supply in coming. The damage they've done is difficult to overstate.
Yeah, trade to 2130 already. Eager to see what kind of level that is for the algos.
Berserk, Broken Rampathon Algo "Buys" The S&P At 2,130
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/berserk-rampathon-algo-just-bou...
this time is different. zero interest is free money for all the corporations to leverage up the hilt to buy back their own stocks for (now) for free. and basically, in a sense, but not really, forever for free. to borrow money at zero for ever is free, isn't it?
except - their is the principal to be paid. and that's never going to be paid, not ever, ask greece, but, that remains to be seen, many years down the line.
for now, let's just all pretend it's all fine, and somehow, these big companies are going to pay it all back.
The last 17 times ZH published an article arguing that stocks were about to roll over, they didn't.
The markets can't crash until ZH capitulates.
It may not rain today.
It may not rain tomorrow.
That's no reason not to buy an umbrella.
17 times? You mean every day....
The true upper deck play: shitting in the top of the toilet
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
short stocks?
hahahahahhahahahahhahahaha
With this Fed controlled market they figure they keep putting a floor on it as it climbs upward.
Don't kid yourselves. One day, it will go south. Because our economic sytem is rotten to the core. Problem with all of us, we've been expecting reality to set in for so long now, even we're becoming cynical of our cynicism.
They don't call them surprises for nothing. Just be ready for when it happens.
I love zerohedge!
When you read the opinions in this room you have to use your own judgements to their validity. I just respect the information set forth for our perusal. Keep up the good work zerohedge!
Go Galt to "get" the system, or the system gets you.
The only thing that will stop the crazy is when all 99% of us run out of money, have no taxes to pay, and default on everything. Seriously, you just can't compete against multi-billionaire companies with free money. Let them have the worthless fiatscos, and stop playing in their sandbox. It doesn't work if you stop participating.
1- stop buying processed food and instead source your food from local farmers even if local is 50 miles away. You have a freezer and a pantry, right ? Garden in buckets if you don't have much land - you will be surprised how much food you can actually grow in 10-12 buckets.
2- stop buying anything from multi-national or national corporations - that includes household products, meals out, anything.Buy only used cars, used appliances, stop fucking going to the Disney palace!
3- Pay off or default on your debt owed to banks or multinational corporations. Buy a bit of land for cash and build only the house you can pay cash for. Yes that means property taxes - so get on the local school board and do something about it. It's a lot cheaper than paying for someone else's expectations.
4- pull your kids out of public schools and homeschool or set up your own private school. It's easy, fun and your kids will thank you for it...later :)
Your life will belong to you again, you will have more time for your own pursuits and your family when you stop paying rentier taxes, and the system will collapse that much faster.
There's no other way this bitc stops the craziness.