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"This Shorting Opportunity Is As Great As 2007-2009", Billionaire Crispin Odey Warns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last two times Crispin Odey, billionaire hedge fund owner and manager of Odey Asset Management spoke, he handed out extra generous portions of fire and brimstone, saying that in due course "equities will be devastated" and that the looming recession will be "remembered for 100 years."

While the bulk of Odey's warnings are very familiar to all regular readers, here is the punchline:

... we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09, so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World effects. This is the heart of the message. If economic activity far from picks up, but falters, then there will be a painful round of debt default.

For those who have failed Chapter 11 (or 7) 101, a quick reminder: when you wipe away debt, you also wipe away equity.

Which brings us to Odey's chilling observations:

We have seen though some strange things, with economics 101 turned on its head. We’ve seen that falling prices produce more supply, as the biggest producers see that they can take market share and use the opportunity by reducing average costs through excess production. We’ve seen that in the oil, minerals and iron ore industries. We have also seen in the last couple of years that as bond yields fall, governments are able to issue more debt.

 

But this time round the problem we have as well is that politics will start to rear its head and we are left to deal with politicians who are increasingly critical of the capitalist system’s ability to allocate capital and provide for society.

 

For me the shorting opportunity looks as great as it was in 07/09, if only because people are still looking at what is happening and believe that each event is an individual, isolated event. Whether it’s the oil price fall or the Swiss franc move, they’re seen as exceptions.

...

This down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years, when we hope it won’t be rated for “How good it looks for its age!”. Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it.

Will he be right, or will central banks find yet another pocket of credit money to create out of thin air, and delude the momentum-chasing algos that all is well, if only for another month or so as the cycle repeats itself again, until finally central banks admit they are out of "tools?"

Considering the recent parabolic blow off top in the Nasdaq, and S&P P/E Multiples coupled with plunging earnings forecasts, the answer may be just around the corner.

Full letter from Crispin Odey:

Manager's Report

The themes I have been outlining since the second quarter of 2014 are now establishing themselves:

  • A faltering Chinese economy with growth ultimately slowing down to 3%.
  • A hard landing for those countries plugged into China’s growth - especially Australia, South Africa and Brazil.
  • A fall in commodity prices bringing with it pain to those heavily exposed.

For oil this is the Middle East, Venezuela, Argentina, mid-west USA, Canada, Norway and Scotland.

No one forecast how fast and how far those commodity markets would fall. However, the same people who singly failed to see this coming are the first to say that the benefits of falling prices will outweigh the costs. My problem with such a hopeful outcome is that, in my experience, those that lose out from a fall in their income are quicker to adjust than those that benefit. In that intertemporal space lurks a recession.

For me, the slowdown/recession finds a secondary downturn thanks to the immediate closing down of any discretionary capital expenditure in the affected industries and countries, something we are only just seeing. This obviously has knockon effects for incomes and employment. At that time the exchange rate is likely to be falling to give some support. In my world this slowdown in the commodity producer’s economy is felt via falling exports back in the beneficiary’s economy, which finds external markets weaken. Again, if I am right on timing, the effect can be great because it is not yet affected by a pickup in spending in the beneficiary’s economy.

As always, that is the theory and markets will show whether it works in practice. In my world, this hit to the world economy is the first experience of a business cycle since 2008. Most investors do not believe we can experience such a downturn. They rely upon Central bankers who they think have solved the problem.

However, let’s also deal with three counters that I currently have to field:

  1. "How long dare you be wrong?"
  2. The opposite. "Do you think after a good quarter, this is all in the price?"
  3. "But isn’t a downturn in the world economy leading to massive counter-measures in terms of liquidity, as envisaged by Draghi and the ECB, which will push  markets and assets higher?"

My answers are as follows:

  1. The performance of the fund since I decided that the world would end differently to my previous thinking, which was in March/April 2014, reflects that I have not been especially early in this call. It would have been rather nice to get the fall in oil spot on, but we didn’t.
  2. No change in cycle lasts for nine months. This down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years, when we hope it won’t be rated for “How good it looks for its age!”. Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it.
  3. We need to go back to 2008. We had seen reckless spending and reckless borrowing, fraudulently obtained credit advances and overvalued housing. And yet, despite the banks losing a great deal of money and house prices in the USA tanking, we hardly saw a recession in 2009. Why? Because when the Anglo-Saxon central banks lowered interest rates from 5.25% to effectively zero, they put the equivalent of 30% of net income into the hands of the overborrowed. There were other QE measures taken but this was the important one.

Today we get excited about what Draghi is going to with his QE plans for Europe. However, buying government bonds yielding 1.2% does not move the dial for European borrowers. Moreover it is almost impossible with negative short rates of 0.2%, because why would anyone sell a bond to the government, even if the yield is only 0.4%, to get a –0.2% yield on their cash? It looks like Draghi’s measures will disappoint markets. Faced with a deflationary bust, monetary policy will prove to be but “pushing on a string”.

There will be a strong temptation for individual countries to act independently of each other to soften the downturn. In this regard the story looks like it is only half way through. Russia will necessarily have to introduce exchange controls, and that really quite soon. Australia, where the average wage is over $70,000, while the USA is creating jobs at $28,000, will have to allow the currency to fall further. Japan has shown, under Abe, how it intends to react. ‘Everyman for himself’ puts enormous stress on a world trading system which has watched world trade rise from 12% to 32% of world GNP in little over 20 years.

So, where am I placing my money?

  • Firstly, I think equity markets will get devastated. Unannounced business cycles ensured Japan’s stock market rating fell by two thirds over 20 years.
  • Equities are priced for perfection, pushed up by SWF and high yield investors looking for higher yields and better covenants than high yield bonds.
  • Commodity-related sectors look unappealing and dangerous.
  • International consumer companies look overexposed to EMs.
  • Fund management companies look overexposed to the wrong assets, especially EMs.
  • Volatility is rising. Not every trade will work.
  • Australia is still to see rates down to 0.5% at the short end, 1.5% at the long end, down from 2.5% currently.
  • Currency trading is still to make the money. It made money last year as it was where the ‘tyres hit the road’ – equities are just the residual.
  • Equity markets will struggle to understand the quarterly translation and transaction effects of these currency moves on corporate profits, starting with Q1 2015.

We have seen though some strange things, with economics 101 turned on its head. We’ve seen that falling prices produce more supply, as the biggest producers see that they can take market share and use the opportunity by reducing average costs through excess production. We’ve seen that in the oil, minerals and iron ore industries. We have also seen in the last couple of years that as bond yields fall, governments are able to issue more debt.

But this time round the problem we have as well is that politics will start to rear its head and we are left to deal with politicians who are increasingly critical of the capitalist system’s ability to allocate capital and provide for society.

For me the shorting opportunity looks as great as it was in 07/09, if only because people are still looking at what is hap-pening and believe that each event is an individual, isolated event. Whether it’s the oil price fall or the Swiss franc move, they’re seen as exceptions.

After the 1987 crash, a friend of mine, then a young Director of Sotheby’s, was sent to consult an old Partner who had been at Sotheby’s during the 1930s and was still alive, albeit in a nursing home. My friend asked the question “What was it like in the 30s?” and the man replied “It was like being bitten by a tarantula.” My friend didn’t really understand that, but later on in the conversation the old Partner said "A spasm of activity followed by a death.”

My point is that we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09, so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World effects. This is the heart of the message. If economic activity far from picks up, but falters, then there will be a painful round of debt default.

We already have volatility across asset classes and as I say, equities are the residual. There is a precious little earnings growth ex-Japanese exporters and we have now reduced our US cyclical exposure as we expect the commodity-induced recession in the mid-west to effect the resilience of the greater US economy. In Europe, we are half way through the write-off process, having written off half as much as the US. Draghi will disappoint and this may cause the first Euro rally given the fall from €1.25 to €1.15 in a month.

We are in the first stage of this downturn. It is too early to see what will happen – a change of this magnitude means the darkness and mist is very great. We will make some mistakes but with our thinking we won’t make the major mistakes. The problem is where you stand – I am amazed to see so many are fully invested given that equities are already fighting the downtrend. Mid and smallcaps have moved into bear markets and much relies on large caps to keep the whole thing going and they are very exposed to international trade.

 

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Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:13 | 5823626 kowalli
kowalli's picture

im short

oh,wait

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:15 | 5823635 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Regular... or extra Crispin?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:16 | 5823639 Dizzy Malscience
Dizzy Malscience's picture

I bet there are at least a few more epic squeezes left in this turnip.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:19 | 5823653 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

lure a few more shorts in for the final epic squeeze this year.........stay out of their casino this time.....lettum all go to hell

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:27 | 5823688 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

shoulda woulda coulda. Im down 30% or so on SPXS. I don't have much in the account anymore, so Im just gonna let it ride and see what happens. Reality always wins eventually, sometimes it just takes longer than would seem possible

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:37 | 5823740 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

You are long SPXS?  I'm short.  For heavens sake man, at least short the long ETF rather than going long the short ETF.  Make ETF decay work in your favor.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:50 | 5823812 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

back in the day, 07-09, there were humans trading with instincts of greed and fear.  now the markets are robotville.  a whole other ballgame

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:08 | 5823904 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

People will demonize the shit out of this guy as an "evil speculator" because he is smarter than most of the population by profiting on their sheeple-esque inspired stupidity. 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:35 | 5824027 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

The government windfall is about to end, the deficit is going to go ballistic.

Here is a great overview of how we got here.  Certainly worth the read.

 

http://debtcrash.blogspot.com/2015/02/history-and-introduction.html

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:11 | 5824146 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

I would love to believe that a profit could be made by just going short but I have this strange phrase playing on a loop in my head.

It goes something like this: "Bank Holiday!"

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:14 | 5824149 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

my very wise father taught me 3 things :  keep your eyes UP while at the urinal ... never put yours & wifey's names/initials on your license plate ... and NEVER take investment advice from a man named Crispin !

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:15 | 5824169 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Paging Hugh "you can't fight the FED" Hendry...

 

We got us a live one here

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:17 | 5824420 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

This is a distraction unless he's shorting the japanese bond market

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:46 | 5824539 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

All good points in this article and I too believe the time will come to Short the Dog Squeeze out of this market.  However one major point omitted is simply "Were the CB's keeping a perpetual bid under the market in 07-08"  That is the key difference between then and now.  

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:50 | 5824557 Zero_Head (not verified)
Zero_Head's picture

The hebrew banksters will short squeeze plenty of suckers, plenty more times before anyone makes a nickel shorting the market

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 21:36 | 5824965 weburke
weburke's picture

greenspan hydra. I would not listen to the beast.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 21:38 | 5824970 rocker
rocker's picture

You would think somebody at Zero gets this. The VXX has just got near a 52 week low. They will take it lower first. Squeezing the last suckers first. And let's not forget the no volume melt up we have had over the last few summers that CNBC hopes does not happen again. Really CNBC (SARC). This article is what the rallies are made of. Hello Zero. You have done better.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:15 | 5824147 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

Crispin ?   

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:49 | 5824304 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

It's from the Bolognese, Crispitino, meaning little lettuce crisper. The name became very popular in the old country with the advent of the modern refridgerator drawer. /total BS

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:08 | 5824384 Bilderberg Member
Bilderberg Member's picture

"..looming recession will be "remembered for 100 years"

Do Billionaires ever remember recessions?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:47 | 5824495 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Excellent advice Crispin:  Strothers immediately move 100 Million into currency trading, go to Jamie D. tomorrow get 100 Million cash for the safe under the chateau and fuel the G5 we will look at estates away from the Hoi-polloi this week..

Crispin = private school silver platter up his ass..   Tell me something I can use.. Billionaires pffft..

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:42 | 5824517 max2205
max2205's picture

Wow   I am pretty sure small and mid caps are at all time highs and not fighting any down trends.

 

Who is this douche.....not saying it can't happen 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 20:55 | 5824832 withglee
withglee's picture

If only someone with "stroke" could grasp the "Proper Management of any Medium of Exchange" and implement it. We would all enjoy zero INFLATION everywhere all the time. We would all enjoy free access to the MOE where supply and demand for it would be in perfect balance ... all the time everywhere. Responsible traders would enjoy zero INTEREST load on their money facilitated trades. Deadbeat traders would be removed from the marketplace. And best of all, governments would have to pay as they go because they would be shown to be the deadbeat traders they have always been.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:53 | 5823830 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

"For those who have failed Chapter 11 (or 7) 101, a quick reminder: when you wipe away debt, you also wipe away equity."

This is why, with a debt-based currency, a 'debt jubilee' would crash the system just as fast as a debt default.

One man's debt is another man's wealth.

In either case, the Ponzi will end...

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 20:03 | 5824620 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

We do have a bankruptcy process in the USA actually....one that is currently not being allowed to function under Operation MOAR.

 

This is clearly a hindrance to recovery.

 

You can't have "MOAR MOAR" either.

 

Three D printer stocks have been annihilated if anyone wants to look at the actual details of a bubble bursting.

 

No need to dramatize "the future" when its here now and has been for a while.

 

HP's price action tomorrow should be interesting....

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 15:35 | 5828143 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

what about the dividends? 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:44 | 5823770 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

You can't short this, dude (SPXL)  The Dow goes to the Moon just before it all crashes.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:44 | 5823772 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

A 200% gain after you incur 70% in losses won't likely taste too sweet. 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:52 | 5823821 Wizard of Ozman
Wizard of Ozman's picture

What everyone above said! You are crazy if you are letting it ride on a 3x ETF. Resurch ETF Expoentail Decay like said above or get reday to make Direxion richer.!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:01 | 5823870 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Im aware of ETF decay guys, and its a small amount of money we are talking here. Since I am revealing my profound stupidity here, ill throw this in too- its a lot less than I have lost on miners. But its not even close to my entire portfolio

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:58 | 5824342 walküre
walküre's picture

at some point, you just don't care.... may I recommend a good Scotch to wash down the pain

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 22:23 | 5825141 deflator
deflator's picture

or, maybe a better strategy? Have a bearish bias towards markets? Haven't got the stomach to go long? Look at the VIX charts...tell me the  trading patterns are not exploitable .

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 20:30 | 5824752 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

forget stocks - stockpile food and ammo..  

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:04 | 5823882 Augustus
Augustus's picture

In my small account I've been short both SPXU and TMV, rebalancing every week or so.  Working pretty well for the last six months or so.  Let them chop themselves to death.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:32 | 5823715 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

and all that doom and gloom analysis without even bringing up the issue of derivatives

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 22:57 | 5825253 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I say one more squeeze and we are done.

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:29 | 5823700 kowalli
kowalli's picture

what is extra crispin? xD

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:58 | 5823847 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Why not just use a nail gun???

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:48 | 5824069 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

HE is full of shit as a christmas goose. NOthing will compare to those opportunities of shorting the mortgage assholes like LEND, washington mutual countryfuckwide and many others.

He can go suck his own rich pin dick.

As long as there has been speculators, there has been asshole opinions behind and ahead of the curve. Let him get with his shortie plan, while the pool guy bangs his old lady, like he can't.

With all my years of trading and making stupid mistakes. Here's the biggest. Never try to pick a bottom or top.  Or go for it and get fucking run over again and again til you are crying, in pain and begging for more. I would rather listen to cramer, not really, than this asshat billion bitch.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:12 | 5824152 new game
new game's picture

after 30 years with some ass rapes along the way, learned to take a win everytime and run for the dugout, lay low til the next low hanger comes alone. take a lose as soon as i get the sinking feeling. ignore all other investors. never post wins. avoid boards. think clearly by asking my wife would you do it, lol.

long healthcare post aca.

exon spill short to name a few...

shorting this one will be on the backslide for sure, with 10 percent exposure.

waiting on jr miners down 90 percent.

so on, good luck...

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:24 | 5823677 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

Did they ever figure out who shorted airline stocks on 9/10/01?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:40 | 5823751 Osmium
Osmium's picture

How do you get a downvote for asking a question?  WTF?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:00 | 5823862 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

Must have been the wrong question. ;)

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:52 | 5824039 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

No. It is actually one of the right questions.

 

The downvoter does not want that question raised. He wants that question to remain unanswered as he was probably one who was involved in the short and profitted from...THE EVENT.

 

"Our purpose was to document the EVENT"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStJ5BgadPs

 

(Note that the Mossad Agent on Israeli late Night TeeVee did NOT call the WTC Bombings an attack but called it an event which he was there to document, since he had precognition about it. He knew that it WAS STAGED.)

 

They want to call 9/11 an EVENT? Well I cannot agree more.

 

Let's call it for what it was.

 

It was NOT an attack. It was an EVENT...a STAGED EVENT.

 

Let's not disappoint them.

 

Downvoter: Thank you for your initial Downarrow. It just gives me the opportunity to expose the truth.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:08 | 5824132 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

The filthy jew shorted the airlines in the whole week leading up to 9-11, buying hundreds of thousands of put contracts on all airlines. Once the investigation came up with the jew, it got dropped and swept away by the jew media. Just like jfk assassination. Not one fucking jew hollywood movie talks about jack being mr. rubenstein not jfk signing an executive order to do away with the jews in the fed.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:01 | 5823867 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Hasbara in the house.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:00 | 5823861 ATM
ATM's picture

It was Jon Corzine.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:19 | 5823964 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Nope. Dick Cheney.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:54 | 5824086 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Dick cheney was one of them, for sure. He needed big cash for a new heart for he is not a great medical candidate on the top of the list.  

With his buttload of cash on hand, they open his chest to find a huge turd for a heart. The surgeon proceeded to drop his pants and take a big ass dump inside of dickie boys chest. HE is doing better than ever.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 20:39 | 5824771 homme
homme's picture

He will certainly die a slow painful death. How do I know? Because God answers prayers, bitchez. ;)

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:03 | 5823874 froze25
froze25's picture

Yes, but they can't tell you for national security reasons.  Don't worry about it, it is for your safety and security.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:46 | 5824062 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Isn't it funny that the ISRAELI ATTACK on the USS Liberty was an attack upon Liberty herself?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:04 | 5823881 spellbound
spellbound's picture

They said it was not important. Keep walking; nothin' to see here.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:54 | 5824071 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

Sure, sure... a billionaire is going to share his investment advice with the rest of us.  If anyone believes that crap, my nickname for them is "Gobbler(s)".  When a Billionaire "shares his wisdom" with the rest of us, that translates to "follow my advice and make me even richer than I already am."  No thanks.  Billionaires didn't get to be billionaires by assisting OTHERS with their investment decisions... they did it by looking out for numero uno.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 20:42 | 5824781 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

All I can say is all the billionaires I know(7) are now out of this market.

All of them.

Not some.

All.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 08:21 | 5826244 gswifty
gswifty's picture

That's hard to believe. But if true, poignant.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 02:29 | 5825908 one_hundred
one_hundred's picture

my neighbor's mother makes $86 /hr on the computer . She has been laid off for 10 months but last month her pay was $21128 just working on the computer for a few hours. go to the website... www.globe-report.com

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:14 | 5823631 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Fuck all billionaires 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:21 | 5823660 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Unless you are one or become one, right?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:29 | 5823699 nuclearsquid
nuclearsquid's picture

No, not the ones who got that way either in one fell swoop, or through no fault of their own.  But if they made say $100M, and they had to work more because that wasn't enough for them, then yes, fuck 'em.

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:06 | 5823895 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

In all fairness, when you have a name like Crispin Odey, your life choices are either become a billionaire or get your ass kicked. A lot.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:19 | 5824177 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

ROFLMAO!!!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:08 | 5823901 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Typical class warfare which is why you will never be a billionaire. Neither will I as the odds play, but I don't hold a grudge and nor am I jealous.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:30 | 5823708 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

I'm cool with millionaires...not billionaire though 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:11 | 5823915 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

And the peasant in some third world country thinks, "I'm cool with those that make a hundred dollars in one year, but thost that make one thousand, well fuck them."

Who below you thinks you make to much? And what right do they have to tell you how much you can make?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:45 | 5824044 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

because you can make millions in a morally right way but you can not make billions without fucking a lot of people over...this is not about class warfare...this is about being a good human being....I like rich people, I would like to be rich, I am not jealous of teh rich,  don't want to tkae their money...but I do detest billionaires

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:07 | 5824121 European American
European American's picture

It's not how much money one has/makes, but the motive for generating the money, i. e. if the action behind the motive supports, uplifts and sustains all life, on all levels (or does not). "Abundance" is a natural gift that occurs when one works in harmony with the laws of Nature. However, when greed and selfishness are the primary motivate for the action, resulting in the suffering of society or the environment (or both), then clearly, whatever amount is unsustainably "looted", whether it be a trillion or $10.00, the money is tainted and the person responsible is infected, and will be compensated, one way or another. No one is immune, rich or poor.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:30 | 5824234 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Karma's a beeeeaaich!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:04 | 5824366 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

John Steinbeck quote

“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.”.

Fri, 02/27/2015 - 13:05 | 5835778 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

it would seem that socialism *has* taken root - just not the way anyone initially envisioned it.  however, today it's comingled with 'oligarchy'...which is another way of saying, 'extra-socialism' for the folks that already have a lot of money.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:16 | 5823637 Joenobody12
Joenobody12's picture

Be buying SPY PUTs daily and getting burnt daily. So disgusted I just gave up. Too early is the word !

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:22 | 5823658 Rainman
Rainman's picture

NEVER volunteer to lead the charge ! ... < old Army saying >

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:00 | 5824101 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Don't try to think you could be ahead of this game of buying puts. You are donating to these assholes.

Options in general, suck balls in hell. Spreads, premiums, time decay... I made money in the past when things wnet crazy but now I wouldn't touch any of them with bill clintons weener.  

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 21:30 | 5824933 Southside Stacker
Southside Stacker's picture

So it curved to the left?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:42 | 5823762 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Hoard dry powder, of all sorts.

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:49 | 5823803 Traderone
Traderone's picture

It's very noticeable how many people are buying Puts yet nobody seems to buy Calls when the market has corrected a little. We are in a raging bull market so maybe now we know why it keeps going up.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:17 | 5823645 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What product or asset of real value does this asshat bring to the market again?  Another useless paper-pusher wrning of collapse in a market where no one is allowed to sell.

Good luck with those shorts asshole.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:58 | 5823838 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Indeed, LawsofPhysics, I find it disturbing that those who understand best how totally screwed up the financial system is can position themselves to take advantage of that, although, thereby, the final result is that the overall systems becomes even more screwed up than before!

At some point, this adds up to a "naked short" on the future of the human species, as well as most other forms of life on Planet Earth. The established systems enable people to place bets upon events which could lead to their own extinction ... while those established systems do not enable anything saner than taking trying to personally take advantage of that insanity, within the context of the fundamentally fraudulent financial system, which permits that kind of bizarre behavior ...

AFTER there are established systems whereby the public "money" supply can be made out of nothing to gamble with, those who understand that best can position themselves to take advantage of the insane rides that results in ... However, there appears to be no position which can be taken within those systems which could prevent us being strapped into that never before tested rocket ride of runaway madness!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:15 | 5823932 walküre
walküre's picture

You know when every last bear on ZH has finally thrown in the towel and BTFATH, the market is allowed to go down. Have we reached that point yet? Seems that more and more are giving up and that is a good thing! When the shorts are all burnt out, there won't be a squeeze. Then what happens? Sideways and down....

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:16 | 5823943 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

especially because the market no longer represents the actual underlying companies, but rather central bank largesse.  as long as they keep printing and hold rates at 0%, and they will, the market will keep rising in lockstep.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:18 | 5823646 clipboard man
clipboard man's picture

But... ""There's no price discovery anymore by the market... governments impose prices on the market." - Pippa Malmgren, former member of the U.S. President’s Working Group on Financial Markets.

 

Who to listen to..  wait I know.  Disneyland it is!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:29 | 5823695 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

there used to be times when a "trend" meant observatons of a sequence of everyday price discovery result. today a "trend" is more like a directive order.

markets should go up!

markets should go down!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:18 | 5823648 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Okay Crispin, you first.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:19 | 5823652 surf0766
surf0766's picture

The only way to win is to not play the game

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:05 | 5823885 autofixer
autofixer's picture

That's a W.O.P.A.R. right there! 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:49 | 5824555 shouldvekilledthem
shouldvekilledthem's picture

By using fiat currencies you're in the game.. ;)

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:21 | 5823654 Tinky
Tinky's picture

When I seek important guidance of any kind, the advice of billionaires named "Crispin" is very high up on my list.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:20 | 5823656 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

thanks for sharing maggot head

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:21 | 5823659 Pareto
Pareto's picture

 

For me the shorting opportunity looks as great as it was in 07/09, if only because people are still looking at what is happening and believe that each event is an individual, isolated event. .......said the guy who obviously isn't aware of the damage the Greenspan/Bernanke/yellen put can inflict on someone who still believes that PRICE DISCOVERY MATTERS.  He will short this market, then have his ass handed to him.  As the guy from Ally bank commercial says:  "have fun with that." 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:27 | 5823686 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Funny.. Awhile ago there were tons of shorts on zh. Now everyone has felt the fury of the printingpress and are afraid to short.

I guess it is time to short

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:49 | 5823799 Archetype
Archetype's picture

Not yet! Total psycho euphoria (the super epic tsunami short squeeze of all time) is still left. Just wait until the FED hikes rates in september and the stockmarket shoots up like never before. Thats when even the most seasoned bears starts beliving that the market can never fall again. Wait for that move to play out before even consider shorting this market.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:54 | 5823831 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Never will raise rates. The anticipation of such event will tank markets- forcing anoter QE. Then viola time to cover

Edit
Anyone been watching cds spreads?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:09 | 5823906 Archetype
Archetype's picture

Nobody believes that the FED can and will raise rates, that's just why it's going to happen. 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:12 | 5823919 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Ok maybe like 5 bp's. Because any more than that and its mathmatical suicide. So yea maybe riase rates but nothing substantial.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:59 | 5823849 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

I'd be looking at the period (in terms of months/days) at which the Central Bankers have to give yet another speech telling us all is peachy-keen, and we won't consider raising interest rates. Today was another day the female gnome spoke (in fornt of Congress no less) and the markets levitated higher.

Remember this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...

I'd say if the interval between speeches falls to less than a two week time frame, look out below. 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:10 | 5823910 Archetype
Archetype's picture

Good point!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:25 | 5823988 BandGap
BandGap's picture

That is the chart of the week!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:21 | 5823662 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

"Here, kitty kitty kitty..."

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:26 | 5823665 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

As soon as China and Russia surrender to NATO, the Pentagon will allow the DOW to fall to 6000.

Get ready!

HOLD!!!!!!!!!

show me you're shorts and i'll show you mine, faggot.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:22 | 5823668 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Maybe they need more muppets to slaughter.  A + day on the books when they have to spend a billion less on account of shorts getting fried crispy.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:23 | 5823673 wmbz
wmbz's picture

 "Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it".

 

We will see... The un-fed will team up in the open with all other central banks and form The World Central Bank. They have already for all intents and purposes. They will not go down in flames easily. They will fight like a bitch to keep the fraud running and they have plenty of printing power. Enough to paper the world and beyond.

It will blow up one day and it will be spectacular!

I hope to live long enough to watch this spectacle come to a conclusion, and hopefully see some Banksters feet above my head swinging from a lamp post!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:24 | 5823678 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

You don't want to see price discovery because it means what YOU own isn't worth shit, including PMs.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:03 | 5824116 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

The man is right. It's all bullshit times a billionaire.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 21:15 | 5824878 Pareto
Pareto's picture

+100 sess because true price discovery means NON INTERFERENCE which implies further a regression to the mean - a liquidation of misallocated debt (capital) from ZIRP - asset prices get crushed as there is simply not enough real collateral to cover.  Not even close.  True price discovery means mal fucking feasance ENDS.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:25 | 5823683 The Bell Rang
The Bell Rang's picture

It's almost here.........................?

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:27 | 5823690 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Burnt to a Crispin soon by the central banksters.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:27 | 5823691 Nafets93
Nafets93's picture

I just read everything is awesome... anybody else?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:25 | 5824448 813kml
813kml's picture

That's because Everything IS Awesome!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:28 | 5823694 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Survival Rule Number One for Bears: Never call a top, ever. Whenever, during a bull run, it looks like there is good evidence for a top, see Survival Rule Number One for Bears.

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:34 | 5823726 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

YOU GO FIRST, BUDDY.

yes, he is right, except for timing, and put options have timing and anybody going short will be crushed!!

do you really think bernake and yellen will let that happen, egg all over their faces?

not soon.

 

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:17 | 5823947 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

It's senseless to try to capture the first ten percent of a new trend at the risk of missing ninety percent of it. Senseless, but popular.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:35 | 5823729 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

listen to this guy and ...your suffering will be legendary even in Hell! [/Pinhead]

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:35 | 5823730 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah Crispy....BernYellen GOT this shit!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:35 | 5823731 atthelake
atthelake's picture

Supply lines will be cut. There will be no fuel, food, drink, meds, transportation manufacturing, electricity, oil and gas for heat, rule of law, computers, internet, sewer treatment facilities, spare parts. We will die of starvation, thirst, exposure, disease not seen in civilized countries, violence, diseases, once easily treated, all because we let America fall to those who own our politicians. WE let this happen. It's on us.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:41 | 5823756 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

fuck it, time to pay the piper, I'm ready physically, mentally and spiritually...also, got a plan...I amy not live forever but I'm cool with it...Can't wait for it to fall 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:58 | 5823844 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Sorry, that particular apocalypse just isn't going to happen.  Things will go on, though civil strife is certainly possible, maybe probable. 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:27 | 5823994 atthelake
atthelake's picture

I hope you're right but I think you have the normalcy bias.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:13 | 5824158 Ruffmuff
Ruffmuff's picture

Just normalcy bullshit. No bias at all. It is the new global status and we will have to adjust.

Stanford did his petro dollar and the world will go hell speech, and guess what> It didn't. Now he is on his dollar reserve and then on to something else, writing away at doom shit and fear mongering. HIs normalcy bias bullshit is proven bullshit.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:35 | 5823732 DOGGONE
Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:37 | 5823739 dcohen
dcohen's picture

Meanwhile, he is secretly long, that is until he says "go long" (after having been given info by his insiders)

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:38 | 5823744 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Good luck cashing in when they've outlawed selling.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:43 | 5823749 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

some good stuff there

 

but NFW am i shorting now ... or ever again

 

i initiated first short last go round christmas eve 2007 ... added thru the spring (dammit i KNEW i was right) ... and was underwater on them till end of august 2008 .... stuck with them and got paid on meltdown

 

but the stress was not worth the payout.

 

This go round i'm eating popcorn in the cheap seats and will pick thru the rubble when "it" finally comes

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:41 | 5823757 jimijon
jimijon's picture

Wall of Worry. And, it's all in the timing. Though good luck shorting now with all the money flowing into the USA.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:41 | 5823759 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

The wall of worry continues to grow un-abated.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:42 | 5823767 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

We all know by now that equities will be devastated but the million dollar question is when? NIRP could fuel an other round of stock buy backs and pump up assets and the shorts will be caught by surprise again.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:45 | 5823781 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

quite obvious central banks are "all in"

 

hoo knows how many aces up their sleeves??

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:49 | 5823805 Neue Regel
Neue Regel's picture

F@ck Yeah! 10 straight green candles in a row in the COMP. Up over 400 points in February and the month isn't over. Almost back to 5000 in a complete shit of an economy. Every dip in the /ES gets bid back up so fast that if you blink you miss it. Economic numbers are deeper in the crapper more than ever and the indexes are making new al time highs every day. They are too high to go long and never fall so no shorting. Like I said before F@ck Yeah! I need to go kick a midget.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:05 | 5823891 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Bro, i like you. Almost as much as i like kicking midgets.

Fuck the fed

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:12 | 5823916 froze25
froze25's picture

It is really amazing that you can have such a bull market in the majors in such a shit economy.  It really can't go on forever eventually there is no buyers for actual goods and earnings start to take a hit.  Harry Dent's arguments on the demographic cliff are compelling.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:54 | 5823833 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

Ok so he reads Armstrong...

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:57 | 5823842 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Guys an idiot. The markets are FED software applications fueled by infinite fiat.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 16:59 | 5823846 chubakka
chubakka's picture

i think it goes to at least 20k first.  

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:00 | 5823855 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Has anyone taken a good, long hard look at the S&P chart over a 30 year period?  We are in total lala land.  Stocks are done past the nose bleed section and headed for orbit.  I have a bad feeling it won't end until major war breaks out.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:09 | 5823908 maskone909
maskone909's picture

The nuclear sunrise will be the cover for the market crash. Atleast thats one of few possible likely scenarios

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:13 | 5823924 froze25
froze25's picture

Agreed, maybe not nuclear but some type of major event.  We really are just one major event away.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:41 | 5824017 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Next to the late 1990s, it is now the second biggest bubble.

 

Alan, Ben and Janet, have enabled and presided over 3 epic bubbles, all of which they haven't seen or understood.  Janet thinks there may be some areas of excess in asset prices, as the market hums along at a 25-30% annual rate year after year, subprime and covenant light hit call time records, junk spreads compress to nothing, apartments in NYC sell for $100 million each, etc.  They don't see the most obvious bubbles.

Normalize interest rates and put a stop to corporate tax schemes that leave most of corporate America paying well under the statutory rate and you will see that stocks are much more expensive than they seem.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 19:04 | 5824364 walküre
walküre's picture

they fooled you

all of which they haven't seen or understood.

they saw the bubbles and they understood they're fueling the bubbles

they're guilty of collusion and conspiracy

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 08:58 | 5826366 gswifty
gswifty's picture

And sedition.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:08 | 5823900 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

For those who have failed Chapter 11 (or 7) 101, a quick reminder: when you wipe away debt, you also wipe away equity.

... and cash.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:25 | 5823978 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Excellent post. I will add on to that and clearify my view point. The US will face Chapter 11 or something thereof. The shareholders are the taxpayers. They will lose their equity.

This is why the serfs always pay. The US government is no better then Eron. Corrupt mismanagement and liars.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:12 | 5823917 Bighorn_100b
Bighorn_100b's picture

Now is a good time to say "keep stacking". When Gold and Silver ETF'S are leveraged 100 to 1. Dollar cost average into Gold/Silver Eagles. Timing the top or bottom is a fools game. If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:13 | 5823922 Victory_Garden
Victory_Garden's picture

SIR TYLER, WHERE IS THE ROTHSCHILD VS ROTHSCHILD STORY, AND WHY WOULD IT BE CENSORED?

WHAT WAS SAID THERE TO CAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE?

IF INDEED THIS TURNS OUT TO BE A CENSORSHIP OF FREE SPEECH HERE ON ZH, THEN THIS HEART FEELS SAD TO THINK SO, AND THUSLY THAR BE NO INSPIRATION TO POST HERE ANY MOAR. THE JOB OF PLANTING TRUTH SEEDS HERE CAN ONLY BE SUCCUMBED BY BABYLONIAN SATANIC ROTHSCHILD ZIONIST CENSORSHIP.

PLEASE TYLER, SAY IT AIN'T SO. PLEASE TELL THE LISTENING AUDIENCE THAT YOU ARE NOT CENSORING THE TRUTH IN THE STORY OF ROTHSCHILD, VS ROTHSCHILD.

MIGHT BE BACK SOME DAY IF YOU REPOST THIS VITALLY IMPORTANT AND TRUTH REVEALING STORY.

SELAH!

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:15 | 5823935 froze25
froze25's picture

what is Rothschild vs Rothschild?

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:19 | 5824173 CHX
CHX's picture

An article ZH had up some time ago, few days I think. Now searching for it, it seems it is not there anymore. Tylers, did you happen to hit a nerve or cross some line ? Lost in the ether ? The NSA should have a backup in that case.

http://www.google.ch/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=rothschild+vs+rothsch...

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:31 | 5824242 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

articles in the top banner are hard to find been searching for a couple unsuccessfully

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:14 | 5823930 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it."

 

1+1 ALWAYS = 2.  The FED cannot override the laws of math.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:15 | 5823940 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

"According to EIA data, global oil production in 2008 was an average 74.016 million barrels per day and in the first 10 months of 2014 averaged 77.427 million barrels, an increase of around 5%. Consumption in 2008 was 86.045 million barrels per day and in 2014 was 92.13 million, an increase of 1.2%."

 

Read the above and kindly explain where the "H" you see a shortfall

in demand for oil realitve to production???

 

Who's zooming who here indeed!

 

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:30 | 5824009 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Um, well production of at least 5% outpaced the increase in consumption of only 1.2%.

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 17:43 | 5824053 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

2014 Production:    77.427 million barrels /day

2014 Consumption:  92.13 million barrels /day

 

Not that my numeracy skills are that awesome, but...HUH?

 

!

Tue, 02/24/2015 - 18:43 | 5824289 moratar
moratar's picture

Barrels sold by ISIS are not in production but only in cosumption

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