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WTI Crude Slides To $48 Handle On Bigger Than Expected API Inventory Build
When last week's API inventory hit, WTI crude tumbled $2 (only to rip higher the next day on a massive EIA build - yeah). Today, API reported an 8.9 million barrel build, greater than expected again and that pushed WTI Crude back to a $48 handle testing the day's lows...
And bounced back to unch from pre-API - for now WTI is stable back at $49...
Will anyone be surprised if we rally off this? Nope - not given last week's idiocy!
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not many reasons to be long oil.
my neighbor's mother makes $86 /hr on the computer . She has been laid off for 10 months but last month her pay was $21128 just working on the computer for a few hours. go to the website... www.globe-report.com
Good luck to all of you attempting to bet a bottom in the midst of a deflationary death spiral.
agreed-just let equities join the party soon otherwise my sanity will join the death spiral
oil appears to be the only mkt where fundamentals matter
That's only because they cannot paper over physical supply issues, and building stores is a physical supply issue. The bitchez cannot print more storage, but that won't stop them from trying to paper over this when a crisis hits.
You mean like gold and silver?
so 8.9/7 for a week. 1.27 m bbl/day inv. build. at 90-91m/day it is 1.4 percent, but as this goes on and demand continues to slide we have to retest 43ish..then ???
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/blog/breaking-ground/2015/02/houston-...
Moar green shoots.
I doubt there's 93 million barrels of gold and silver being mined each day. The volume of oil coming out of the ground can't be hidden.
DUH with +20% of U.S. refining capacity offline due to STRIKES no freaking surprise inventory is building
Shhhh. It's crashing again, just like the dow (any day now).
There could be 2 trillion barrels in inventory and Tyler would be still willing it down and wondering why it isn't happening.
I wish this site would adjust to the new normal and quit the "omg I can't believe this, it shouldn't be happening"
Well it is and you know why.
If TPTB really wanted oil at 20 the saudis would have kept flapping their gums and it would already be at 20.
How about this?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/22/news/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-production...
and this
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/23/investing/opec-emergency-meeting-oil/You're quoting CNN money at me?
And that's what they said back in December. Notice how they've shut up?
What a Joke... just like Gold and Silver. UP DOWN UP DOWN...
Watch Energy HY bankruptcy announcements. Thats the bottom.
Inventories build -> price tanks even further after storage is unavailable or unfordable -> leveraged producers get their faces ripped off -> bond crisis -> government goes full retard meddling in something that it does not understand.
That's what I see playing out, barring some other major financial or geopolitical event shaking things up.
>>Inventories build -> price tanks even further after storage is unavailable
Yup! Im out of oil for now and just waiting for inventory on Thurs to liquidate some Natty. Im not sure why your fans downvoted you, its the truth.
I will jump back in when the storage crisis hits and pick it all up for a song
ditto.
One thing is for sure and that's that someone is stepping in to hold the $48-49 as an oil bottom and not letting it dropping down to retest the lows.
Agreed. The price action doesn't seem logical at the moment but apparently someone has spare storage capacity and is buying. Until the market sees the longer-term price falling further the front-month will be supported. Right now April is 49.xx and December is 58.xx (for /CL), apparently the carry is favorable.
2mmb VLCCF tanker leases are going for $45K/day
That's about $11 million for 8 months storage
2mmb x $9 = $18 - $11 = $7 million profit less any other expenses such as insurance, crew, fuel
Lies, Damned lies, and statistics.
Meanwhile, it appears that consumption outstrips production
by 15MILLION bbls/day... ongoing...!
Now back in the Twilight Zone ( somewhere in the WS -- DC axis )
oil prices fall on a minor twitch in inventories???
Yeah. Right...
You were too early jumping on the oil to $100 bandwagon
Martin Fridson is expecting knock-on effects from Energy HY sector to push overall HY sector default rate from current 2.7% (expected 2015) to 4.5% in 2016 and double-digits after that. If Oil falls substantially below his assumed cost of production ($45) this year then and then stays there his numbers get pulled forward. Oil doesn't have to go to $20 necessarily. If it drops under $40 and sit there then the weaker HY companies start to bleed and the lower Oil goes the faster the bleeding. As discussed on ZH when you start to see bankruptcies then you might start to see the beginning meaningful production cuts.
Tough to fudge this one since bonds mature and invesors must get their money back or else re-finance but if trust (credit) is gone...
Somewhere sometime back ZH suggested US Government coming in to bail out Shale producers like with the Banks. Who the fuck knows.
The price doesn't need to do anything else from here. The debt is based on the reserves. Wait until reserves have to be updated and you'll see the horror shows.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31613922
Neptune in Pisces (until 2026) = OIL! OIL! OIL! (fucking everywhere, ditto: micro-distilleries, micro-breweries, booze, booze, booze...and drugs: marijuana ad nausea)
Bulls really are clueless. 5 mins of reading credible sources is all it takes to understand what's going on here.
Can someone get a handle on the effect of refinery strikes on inventories and prices for crude and products? There is probably a fair amount of empty tanker space available for supplemental storage.
Bakken (and other fields) needs 90-100 new wells per month to keep production constant. Fewer than 90 new wells, production drops. Let's see how long the new wells keep getting drilled.
Imagine when the build actually decreases, actually by new normal definition increases by less than expected.
Oil will jump 15% for no real fundamental reason.
Like everything in the new normal oil is just a playtoy to front run for profit if you are big enough to rig thr game.