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Technical And Fundamental Analysis Explained

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Confused? This should help your process...

 

Technicals...

 

Fundamentals...

 

Clear?

 

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Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:01 | 5828523 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

09/03/2010

 

Fundamental analysis?  Earnings?  Technical analysis?  Charts?  We don't have a prayer when Ben Janet has his finger on the button under the [roulette] table.

  

You can take the ghosts of Graham, Dodd, Edwards, and McGee, as well as every CFA on the planet to manage a portfolio.  I'll take one insider at 33 Liberty and my performance will wipe the men's room floor with yours.

   

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ecri-declines-passes-below-double-dip-1...

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:04 | 5828565 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Funny - in an effort to make sense of all the contradictions, I ended up writing a book...a book that no publisher wanted any part of...so I have posted it online.

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/fundamentally-flawed-chapter-1-advanced.html

Take a look and let me know your thoughts.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:39 | 5828669 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Not only do the banks that own and operate The Fed have inside information, but our elected representatives in Washington have a stock-picking edge, too...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-04/you-have-health-insurance-you-c...

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-21/how-does-fascism-work-20...

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:24 | 5828719 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

New normal investing for Dummies:

Rule #1) BTFD

Rule #2) BTFAH

Rule#3) Pry the sell button off your keyboard.

Rule #4) If you absolutely must skip rule #3, then dump paper pm's in bulk and at the worst possible price you can get for them. Repeatedly. At the most illiquid time(s) you can find.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:50 | 5828750 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

This is the graphical reason WHY Republican House Members voted to fund ObamaCare twice.

 

Both Democrats and Republicans have made money off of it... a lot of it...at your expense.

 

Have any of you made money off of it?

 

If you have then you need be ashamed...especially if you are hypocritical and SAY that you are against ObamaCare...while Financially supporting it. Financial support is SUPPORT.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:55 | 5828762 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You can downarrow this all that you want but it will not change the truth. It will not censor the truth.

 

You are a chickenshit hypocrite.

 

Have a good burn in Hellfire.

 

Congress members are in it for the money. They are there to raid the treasury.

 

You pay for it, SUBJECT SLAVE.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:04 | 5829054 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Ha ha ha the joke's on you. I don't live in the US.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:42 | 5829160 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The joke is on you. As we have exported our inflation your state will collapse into the abyss before mine.

 

In fact the joke has been played on you for the last half century.

 

So enjoy PAYING for Obamacare through the use of US Dollars, through whatever your local currency may be.

 

Collapses of Empires start at the fringes working their way to the core. The vassal states suffer worse and for much longer than the Empire state.

 

No..The joke has been on you for quite a long while. You are just too damned blind to see it. The USA will be the very last Domino to fall.

Thu, 02/26/2015 - 16:45 | 5832746 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I've down arrowed you before, but this one gets a greenie.  You are absolutely correct and hardly anyone gets this.  All the insane spending is ESSENTIALLY FREE because the fed is printing the budget deficit.  Taxes would probably be double if they actually had to cover all spending.

Think of it.  The chinese and russians are paying for most of our military build up.  We should just make health care and college free, because the inflation is exported.

 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:18 | 5828861 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

I read the first chapter and found it to be very informative.  Good stuff IMHO.  I hope to find time soon to read the other chapters.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:39 | 5828965 Alananda
Alananda's picture

You might begin your "history" a bit earlier -- certainly no later than Dec 1913 -- and you might "people" your account, just to keep it in the family, so to speak.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 16:57 | 5828527 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

It makes perfect sense to me....pay someone money to take care of my money and they will always put me before themselves...every fucking time. Does anyone have a clue how rare it is to find someone who will actually do that?

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 16:56 | 5828531 Mickdoo
Mickdoo's picture

Actually the article is wrong. technical anlysis only works when everyone does it. 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 16:59 | 5828541 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Gambling only works when you know more than your competition. Other than that, it is only dumb luck and I sure wouldn't want to bet my life on that...but many do.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:12 | 5828579 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

Exactly!

 

For example, Arnold Rothstein, knew for a fact, that the Chicago White Sox were gonna lose the 1919 World Series despite being considerable favorites to win.

 

Carol Rosenbloom's Baltimore Colts, despite being overwhelming 18 point favorites vs the New York Jets in Super Bowl III, lost, made a fortune, swapped clubs & moved to Hollywood.

 

Larry Silverstein gambled on a piece of real estate [which was due for a billion dollar overhaul to remove asbestos], & well, let's not get into it.

 

Must be because these insightful entrepeneurs came from a culture of hard workers who devoted their lives to study.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:20 | 5828646 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I hear it's an IQ thing.  /s

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:01 | 5828654 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

& yet. There are no Nobel Prizes that are ever rewarded in that category where there's a clear edge. The committee is biased I tell you... BIASED!!!

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:39 | 5828713 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Its only insider trading if others do it. I'm just smart....

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:09 | 5828721 permarig
permarig's picture

Some believe, the man behind the murder of Rothstein was Dutch Schultz.

Among other things, Dutch Schultz (with Otto "Abbadabba" Berman) were also known for running an algorithmic market maker / numbers racket gambling operation:

Berman was a middle-aged accountant and math whiz who let Schultz fix this racket. In a matter of seconds, Berman could mentally calculate the minimum amount of money Schultz needed to bet at the track at the last minute in order to alter the odds. This strategy ensured that Schultz always controlled which numbers won, guaranteeing a larger number of losers in Harlem and a multimillion-dollar-a-month tax-free income for Schultz. Berman was reportedly paid $10,000 a week for his valued insight.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:09 | 5829047 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

There are many devotees, [around here & elsewhere], that wrap themselves around BIBLICAL epics [such as the case of 'Moses' & the story of the EXODUS [which happens to be the 2nd 'book' in the OLD TESTAMENT of Protestant, Catholic, & Eastern Orthodox religions]

 

No doubt that it's a 'Hollywood' quality tale of escape from bondage & all the rest.

 

But what always amazed me was the fact that, [& of course the suffering as depicted in movies like 'The Ten Commandments'], was the fact [if the scripture is accurate], that these sufferers, upon finally being freed from the yoke of Pharaoh for generations upon generations, & being DEVOTED, PLEDGED, & SELF DESCRIBED 'monotheists'...

 

Well ~ What do they do?

 

As quickly as possible, they build themselves a golden calf to worship, because the 'LIBERTARIAN' life seems to be tougher than they imagined.

 

Hey... fuck man... I didn't write that shit... But what strikes me is the COGNITIVE DISSONANCE that zealots have. They're totally taken in by what's known in Hollywood script writing as 'SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF'

 

It's the only way to make a movie [to make a storyline cull the gullible into following a storyline], that, an objective observer could poke a million holes in and say "WTF? It's a mathematical impossibility that things could have EVER transpired that way".

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:13 | 5829073 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Not only that. According to the Bible Joseph, his brothers, their wives and families (36 people) were the Isrealite captives in Egypt. 150 years later their progeny numbered between 600,000 and 800,000 "slaves". Except for Moses, he was the pharaoh's favorite.

 

All that mob left Egypt for Isreal and went in the opposite direction (southeast instead of northeast). Carrying enough gold to make a solid gold calf and plenty left over. They  hung out down south for 20 years before deciding to "go home".

And when they returned to their long lost home did they go in and say "Hi uncle, Hi aunty, we're back". Like hell they did, they snuck in, spied out the land, invaded and killed everyone they could get their hands on.

Only then did they say "this is our land, our ancestors came from here, we have a perfect right to steal this land,  yeah that's the ticket"

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:22 | 5829108 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

You don't think a Hollywood movie PRODUCER is gonna make a film about that do you?

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:15 | 5828844 nailgunnin4you
nailgunnin4you's picture

Must be because these insightful entrepeneurs came from a culture of hard workers who devoted their lives to study.

 

Fucking bloomsteins.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:03 | 5828563 Thirst Mutilator
Thirst Mutilator's picture

Technical Analysis works as follows:

 

1-2-3-4-5-    P1-P2-P... [OMFG]Ctrl+P PPT QE18!!!!!  5--5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

 

hookers & blow for a job well done!

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 16:58 | 5828537 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Thread jacking

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/soros-ford-shovel-196-million-to-net-n...

FUck Soros. Save the web from the communists

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:01 | 5828551 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Hey, they are doing it because they love us.

Really...

I read it in a manifesto once.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:01 | 5828554 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Soros is attempting netjacking.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:20 | 5828639 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Its too late, surf.  It's a done deal.  Gonna pass on a 3-2 party-line vote tomorrow.  You won't know what's in the new regulations until AFTER they pass them.  (Sound familiar??)

You know how many internet-related companies are pushing for this?  ZILLIONS.  All the little techies think "Net Neutrality" (the most mis-named program since the Affordable Care Act) is going to stick it to the evil ISPs and help the little guys.  They're so fucking wrong, but don't try to tell them that.

Just wait till they're screaming like stuck pigs (or MIT faculty members) a couple years from now.  They have NO idea what they're asking for by having the government start to regulate the Internet like a Title 2 public utility.  NONE.  I guess they didn't learn what happens when you invite the governent in to "help" you.

I suspect ZH supports this action, given their refusal to publish a single article about it.

 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:28 | 5828668 surf0766
surf0766's picture

It will be the end of freedom of speech. The brownshirts will come a knockn'

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:36 | 5828949 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

You know why it doesn't matter to techies?

Because most techies I know can move anywhere on the planet and make money. So, if the USA shits the bed with the internet, fine, time to plug in somewhere like Hong Kong or South Korea and keep on working.

I guess it will suck for the people who believe in the "american dream" and are fully levered up on a mortgage and credit card debt with zero savings, but they dug their own hole - so they might as well lie in it.

I could give a fuck what the FCC does with the internet in the USA, and most of the world doesn't give a shit either. Go ahead, fuck it up Americans, just like everything else. Nobody is going to try to help you when you balkanize your network into a bazillion different pieces.

Third-world country status, here you come!

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:01 | 5828550 babylon15
babylon15's picture

I don't like this cartoon or Scott Adams belief in efficient markets.  Reading information and studying it is not a binary process.  Take the medical school entrance exam.  Anyone can do better than average by studying harder than average.  Some study harder and do better.  Why should investing be any different?

 

I agree fundamentals have not mattered since 2008.  But, at least once upon a time, they did matter, and skill did exist (mostly just a pursued interest).

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:05 | 5829056 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

Also, EMOTIONS.  You should be running away during the euphoria; and running back during the depression.  

The discipline to hold back your emotions is a though one.

Hence, gold, silver, bitcoin & litecoin are what I'm in---and fuck all these rainbows with sunshine stories out there. 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:07 | 5829063 paint it red ca...
paint it red call it hell's picture

Terms like 'efficient markets' and 'business ethics' are for the portion of population that can still fart (at the very least) as a tenor ....

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:16 | 5829086 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

Scott Adams has an investment system that involves affirmations and listening to the voices in his head. I shit you not. He wrote it all up in one of his books.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:01 | 5828553 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

A stock is something you buy on technical analysis just before the price falls

And

Sell based upon fundamentals just before the price rises.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:47 | 5828743 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

actually, stocks are made for selling. 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:04 | 5828567 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Left shoulder or right shoulder? it makes all the difference.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:14 | 5828614 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

Even if people read the same information (which they don't totally) doesn't mean they succeed.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:16 | 5828628 nakki
nakki's picture

How can anyone possibly believe that in today's non gapp, no mark to market, no non performing loan world, that one could trade on fundermentals. 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:21 | 5828648 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Here's how to beat the market: program the HFT algos and position options accordingly.  Questions?

-Jamie

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:25 | 5828655 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

Real world analysis:

It's all rigged.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:27 | 5828659 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Just received a lumpy inheritance and my financial adviser reckons i should top up my 401k, muni-bonds and the rest in stawks, reckons they're a steal. Have stayed with him despite the 5 year stretch for insider trading and something about corzining client funds which i didn't really understand on posting his bail pre trial; swears he's good for it,Cayman something or other.

Happy Dayz!

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:46 | 5828741 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

sounds like a solid plan. Thanks in advance for helping to grow my Aston Martin fund and childs college tuition proceeds. 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:44 | 5828722 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Fuck all the hours I wasted doing my own stock research, didn't amount to a hill of beans.  Wife says, let a professional financial advisor do it.  Riiiiight.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 17:43 | 5828730 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

VIRTU win.

YOU TOO lose.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:38 | 5828962 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The good news?

TREASURIES WILL RALLY!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

ISIS negotiations in 3....2....1....

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:16 | 5828851 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

use the yellenator indicator!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:19 | 5828865 Spungo
Spungo's picture

lol @ fundamental analysis. Don't waste your time looking at weird ratios like free cash flow to enterprise value. Just BTFD and be done with it.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:21 | 5828877 Who was that ma...
Who was that masked man's picture

"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. "
– Will Rogers (1879 – 1935)


Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:28 | 5828914 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Great advice from a dead man. Thanks.

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:33 | 5828938 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

How about all the times the markets have declared  "broken" when someone stood to lose a packet?

What about the Swiss devaluation?

Why isn't there a margin call when this occurrs?

Years ago when LTCM screwed the pooch on Russian bonds,why didn't they let them go under?

Massive leverage,and only a 5% swing required to wipe out the funds position? With borrowed money..

If they had folded we might not be in the state we are now.

I have friends and family who are expecting their IRA accounts to be there someday.I just shake my head...

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 18:45 | 5828992 cn13
cn13's picture

What is a market?

All we have now is a group of unelected ex-university professors who belong to a certain race that make up less than 3% of the U.S. population and who also happen to control our money supply.

The markets are dead.  Welcome To The New Normal.

 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 19:06 | 5829058 Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

Several friends asked me to look into their 401K prospectus' even though they were crowing in 2009 about being "safely out" of the market.

Their money was in "stable value" funds chock full of 'Wrapped" Mortgage Backed Securities......worth what? 10% or 20% of the reported "values?"

One AIG bailout, one MBS replacement operation, one FASB 157 accounting rule change later, and 2 or 3 FED QE's later their 401K's are back "in da money."

50 million people trying to get through one exit at the same time will be entertaining.

 

Wed, 02/25/2015 - 21:52 | 5829600 Magooo
Magooo's picture

So here we are day after day --- ranting and moaning about how the elites are going to blow the world up with their 'insane' policies that enrich them.

But if we know this is going to blow the world up --- don't you think they know too?

Only  a fucking half wit on crack would not recognize that printing trillions of dollars year after year was not going to end well.

 

So - why are they doing it?

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