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Ukraine Enters The Endgame
Back in March 2014 we forecast that it in the aftermath of the US State Department-sponsored military coup in Kiev, it was only a matter of time before Ukraine (all of its sovereign gold having since "vaporized") succumbed to full blown hyperinflation and economic implosion. Less than a year later, precisely this outcome has finally played out, and as a result, the entire nation has finally entered its economic endgame, one which has two conclusion: either it joins Greece in becoming a ward of Europe (of which it is not an official member) and the IMF (thank you Joe Q Public taxpayer), or it quietly fades away into insolvent "failed state" status.
This is in a nutshell the assessment by Goldman Sachs, presented below, which really doesn't say much we didn't cover earlier in "Ukraine Enters Hyperinflation: Currency Trading Halted, "Soon We Will Walk Around With Suitcases For Cash", but which does lays out the (very unpleasant) alternatives for yet another nation brought to ruin through American neo-colonial expansion, in what may well be a record short period of time. Of these, the primary ones focus on yet another IMF bailout which the agency may find some resistance to as a result of the near-total collapse of Greece at the same time. And not only that but Goldman's "base case of IMF fund disbursement in mid-March may not come quickly enough to stabilize the Hryvnia." Oops.
Should the IMF fail to provide the much needed funding (and as of this moment the days of merely jawboning its support for the central banks are finished since Russia will once again shut down its gas to Kiev unless it is paid in full and upfront), this is what happens: "the Ukrainian authorities could tighten FX controls further. In the extreme, this could potentially involve a bank deposit freeze, a ban on retail FX purchases and/or moratorium on external payments and complete closure of the capital account."
Hence our question to Ukrainians: was the coup worth the economic disintegration of your nation, and leaving your faith in the hands of the US, whose recent global intervention case-studies include such sterling examples as Libya, Egypt and Iraq?
And before we present the Goldman piece, here is something truly funny: in discussing the causes of the collapse of the Ukraine currency, Goldman lays out "monetary financing of Ukraine’s fiscal deficits" as one of the reasons.
This is certainly not funny for Ukraine which now may have just enough cash to cover 3 weeks worth of imprts:
While monetary financing of the deficit may debase the value of the Hryvnia in the medium term, it is the shortage of FX in the system that has caused the proximate pressure on the currency, as NBU reserves declined to US$6.4bn in January (4 weeks of imports) and are likely to decline to US$5-5.5bn in February (3 weeks of import cover). These international reserves include about US$1bn in monetary gold, so the liquid amount of reserves is likely to fall to US$4-4.5bn in February (2.5 weeks of imports).
So why is it that funny? Because as the chart below shows, it is not just Ukraine that is engaged in "monetary financing of its deficit" - so is the entire developed world to the point where central banks will buy up every single dollar of debt government have to issue (and thus fund deficits) and then some!
In other words, we now live in a world in which the entire global fiscal, and every other, debt-funded deficit is being plugged by central banks! Therefore, for anyone curious what will eventually happen to the world's various fiat currencies, look no further than the UAH.
So without further ado, here is Goldman with "As pressure builds on the Hryvnia, short-term risks mount and may prompt policy action"
Bottom line:
The Hryvnia weakened over the weekend to UAH 30 vs. the USD, prompting the Ukrainian authorities to tighten FX controls and to intervene by a reported US$80mn today, and causing a further weakening of the currency to UAH 40 on the black market as of this morning. While pressures have subsided somewhat (with black-market, mid-market spot now around UAH 33), in our view, the current FX controls are only likely to provide temporary relief to the currency and, thus, introduce risks that the authorities could tighten FX controls further. Given that capital flight, debt repayments, ongoing imports and a destabilization of expectations in the FX market are likely to continue exerting pressure on the Hryvnia in the coming days and weeks, our base case of IMF fund disbursement in mid-March may not come quickly enough to stabilize the Hryvnia. In our view, this could cause the authorities to resort to more severe FX controls and/or could cause international donors aware of the fragility of the situation to make available emergency funds in order to serve as a bridge until IMF loans arrive.
Authorities step up FX controls, as pressure builds on Hryvnia …
The Ukrainian authorities have put in place an array of FX controls since late 2012, including the mandatory sale of FX proceeds, bank FX withdrawal limits, FX bank transfer limits, and de facto restrictions on access to NBU FX provision for banks. The latter restriction caused the black-market Hryvnia rate to be 20-30% weaker than the official rate in recent months, but was dismantled in early February, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Hryvnia and aligning the official exchange rate to the black-market one. Despite these restrictions, the Hryvnia continued to weaken last week, with the official rate reaching UAH 27.9 vs. the USD as of February 20 and the black-market rate rising to UAH 31 over the weekend.
As a result, in the past week, the authorities have stepped up their FX controls significantly. The government discussed imposing a duty on non-essential imports last week and the NBU earlier this week increased scrutiny and put into place checks on import pre-payments exceeding US$50,000 (and required a letter of credit from an investment-grade-rated bank for those exceeding US$500,000), while also banning leveraged FX purchases by corporates. The Hryvnia continued to weaken in response to these measures, to UAH 35 vs. the USD yesterday on the black market, and the NBU accordingly introduced further restrictions, including a complete ban on corporate purchases of FX through end-week and restrictions for banks as well. The initial response to these measures was a sharp weakening of the Hryvnia on the black market to in excess of UAH 40 vs. the USD this morning, but the end-day rate has now settled down to around UAH 33, although the bid-ask spread has widened sharply to about 15% of the mid-market price, indicative of very poor liquidity conditions. While the official rate had been aligned with the black market during the period February 6-21, it has returned to being about 20% stronger than the black market in the past several days.
There are several causes for the weakening of the Hryvnia:
- Net private capital outflows (excluding net IMF/official sector flows), which stood at an estimated US$10bn in 2014. This number excludes US$3.7bn in repayments to the IMF and about US$4.5bn in debt service on external sovereign bonds.
- Current account and trade deficits, due to the collapse in exports and despite the fact that domestic demand has weakened sharply.
- Monetary financing of Ukraine’s fiscal deficits.
While Ukraine’s current account and trade balances should close as domestic demand continues to contract and as the Hryvnia has weakened further, capital flight continues, with bank FX deposit outflows of US$600-700mn/month in November-January. Moreover, monetization of the deficit has accelerated as local banks are no longer able to absorb domestic bond issuance. The share of domestic government bonds owned by the NBU has risen to 71% in January, from 59% one year prior, with the share held by domestic banks falling by the same amount (to 20%). Meanwhile, narrow money continues to grow at around 15-20%yoy, at a time when domestic credit is now contracting by 10%yoy. While money supply growth in the mid-single digits in a context of weak credit growth may have been offset for most of 2014 by large-scale FX interventions by the NBU, withdrawing liquidity, FX interventions have slowed in H2-2014 and the NBU reportedly stopped intervening in February (although it intervened once again by US$80mn today). This has caused assets on the NBU’s balance sheet to grow by about 60%yoy in recent months and by 8%mom in January (seasonally-adjusted). In our view, with the economy and cash demand weakening, domestic credit shrinking and an absence of liquidity withdrawal via interventions, money supply growth at the current pace will ultimately prove inflationary and will cause the Hryvnia to weaken further.
While monetary financing of the deficit may debase the value of the Hryvnia in the medium term, it is the shortage of FX in the system that has caused the proximate pressure on the currency, as NBU reserves declined to US$6.4bn in January (4 weeks of imports) and are likely to decline to US$5-5.5bn in February (3 weeks of import cover). These international reserves include about US$1bn in monetary gold, so the liquid amount of reserves is likely to fall to US$4-4.5bn in February (2.5 weeks of imports).
… raising short-term risks, until IMF funds arrive …
In our view, while the current FX controls may provide some temporary relief, pressure is likely to continue to build on the Hryvnia until expectations stabilize, confidence is restored, and the country’s FX reserves are replenished. Given the poor liquidity and destabilization of expectations in the FX market, the ongoing conflict in Donbass that undermines confidence, and the continued need to import natural gas and other essential goods and make external debt payments, these factors are likely to continue to exert pressure on the Hryvnia, at least until the IMF Board approves the newly-agreed program and makes its first disbursement. However, this will likely take at a minimum 2-3 weeks and there are risks of delays. First, the authorities must fulfil their prior actions for the program, and notably the Rada must approve a new budget law. This is scheduled to take place in a session on March 3, although PM Yatseniuk is attempting to accelerate this process by holding an extraordinary Rada session to approve the legislation. Even if the session is moved forward, in our view, there is no guarantee that the law will be approved immediately and delays are possible. Once prior actions are fulfilled, the IMF Board can meet, approve the new program, then disburse funds shortly thereafter. Our base case is that this will take place in mid-March (the current board review date is reportedly scheduled for March 11), although it is possible that this could be delayed. With the current pace of reserve depletion and pressure build-up on the Hryvnia, it is possible that the IMF funds may not arrive quickly enough. This raises the short-term risk of a significant further increase in pressure on the Hryvnia.
… and implying potential need for emergency policy action
Given the balance of payments and monetary pressures on the currency, the authorities and international donors, in our view, have several policy options. First, the Ukrainian authorities could tighten FX controls further. In the extreme, this could potentially involve a bank deposit freeze, a ban on retail FX purchases and/or moratorium on external payments and complete closure of the capital account. Second, international donors (bilateral lenders and IFIs) could recognize the fragility of the current situation and the fact that the IMF timeframe may prove to be too slow to stabilize the currency. Thus, in our view, the international community could make available emergency funds in the coming days or weeks, effectively bridging financing for Ukraine until the IMF disbursement arrives. However, bureaucratic, legal and political hurdles may exist to any large-scale emergency disbursement to Ukraine, either bilaterally or multilaterally. Thus, there is no guarantee that such emergency funds could or would be made available. This introduces further short-term policy uncertainties.
Finally, the recent and sharp weakening of the Hryvnia, as well as significant recent shifts in money demand and supply, could necessitate an overhaul of some of the IMF’s program assumptions and targets. In our view, this could require further technical work on the part of the IMF and could cause additional delays to disbursement of IMF funds. As the monetary and financial dynamics evolve rapidly, so may the IMF’s working program assumptions and the parameters of the program.
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Thanks Soros, Nudelman and the Hymie entourage.
We Weimar'd some folks.
Mission Accomplished.
Damn, and I just finished a 2 year long project to make perfect counterfeit 100 Hyrivnia bills.
(Yes, I know, all fiat is counterfeit. Just roll with the joke.)
or it quietly fades away into insolvent "failed state" status.
Like all of Latin America, and nearly all of Africa?
When did Mexico "fade away"? I missed the proclamation.
They decided to "fade north" instead.
Fucking Nazis!
They were Nazis, Dude?
Oh, come on Donny, they were threatening castration! Are we gonna split hairs here? Am I wrong?
Am I to understand from this article that there are still people in, oh, Kiev, for instance ... who are still paying their mortgages and/or worrying about it?
The truly crazy part of all this, is that the average ukrop "patriot" STILL thinks the u.s. is only there to help them, and russia is the root of all evil.
The farce is strong in this one.
So, all in all, the perfect time for Russia to call default on the $3 Billion loan to Ukraine and demand repayment? Remind me again who is "winning" this game?
They can't do that or they will lose the Ukrainian people forever as an ally
Sure they are paying mortgages, because they can do it for the price of a cup of coffee.
Hyper inflation can be fun. Life is unpredictable, and most of the predictions made on ZH are crap.
If you wrap Hryvnia in food wrap and keep the bundles properly cooled in a refrigerator, it won't devalue nearly as fast.
But I'll tell you what, after seeing Los Angeles and this here story I'm about to unfold, well, I guess I've seen something every bit as stupefying as you can see in any of those other places, and in English, too.
Is the Obama Admin this stupid or are all these failed missions, Tunisia, Libyia, Egypt, Syria, Ukraine, actually part of a plan to recreate the world? I honestly do not know.
All of the above?
I would have guessed (considering the new, rather large contingent of "Before It's News" followers here) that someone would have posted:
"wham-bam, thank you Ma'am".
It would have actually been appropriate.
But alas...[sigh]
Destroy all nation states...guess Iceland will be last.
"I honestly do not know"
Sarc aside, start reading... http://blog.redefininggod.com/
Double Post. Alcohol was involved.
That's ok, just financially monetize this second post and it will carry through the bottle.
But of course, there will have to be "reforms" and austerity measures until you can create a space-time warp and reverse the second post.
Nope, don't even ask...nein, nein, nein, nein. No chasers.
Mexico wont fade away .. we will harmonize . integrate . and become a bad case of Brazil disease .. top crust and the millions below.WE will blend into NORTH AMERIC the meme . .keep saying that NORTH AMERICA . . we are no longer USA . we are NORTH AMERICA .. say it over and over again .... we already got the cartels and corruption and 20 million illegals.. why not the entire enchilada. so to speak. Canada wont be too happy about it .. we already tried to scam their water resources to fix water shortages in the southeast .. they refused. but hey . there is always tomorrow... .
"Mexico wont fade away .. we will harmonize ."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKywX7nPKOY
Mexico wont fade away .. we will harmonize . integrate . and become a bad case of Brazil disease .. top crust and the millions below.WE will blend into NORTH AMERIC the meme . .keep saying that NORTH AMERICA . . we are no longer USA . we are NORTH AMERICA .. say it over and over again .... we already got the cartels and corruption and 20 million illegals.. why not the entire enchilada. so to speak. Canada wont be too happy about it .. we already tried to scam their water resources to fix water shortages in the southeast .. they refused. but hey . there is always tomorrow... .
"we are no longer USA"
When were "we" ever America? Who is "we"? The banksters? The MIC? The NSA, CIA, FBI, DHS?
You want to include yourself in "the above" and call it "America"?
Do you think that "they" include "you"? Ha, ha, ha,!
"this is not, Amer-i-ca...la, la, la, la....[Bowie/Metheny]
Que?
That's spelled, "K," dude.
Mexico is already in a failed state of law and order. It's currency pegged to the fed.
Would have been best to put a whiteboard in place of denomination.
I guess they sold the Sex Farm....
As there is no more food left...President of Ukraine will supply chocolate to all the citizens.
He's already increased the weekly chocolate ration from 50g to 30g!
Dude, that ain't chocolate.
"Moreover, monetization of the deficit has accelerated as local banks are no longer able to absorb domestic bond issuance. The share of domestic government bonds owned by the NBU has risen to 71% in January, from 59% one year prior, with the share held by domestic banks falling by the same amount (to 20%). Meanwhile, narrow money continues to grow at around 15-20%yoy, at a time when domestic credit is now contracting by 10%yoy. While money supply growth in the mid-single digits in a context of weak credit growth may have been offset for most of 2014 by large-scale FX interventions by the NBU, withdrawing liquidity, FX interventions have slowed in H2-2014 and the NBU reportedly stopped intervening in February (although it intervened once again by US$80mn today). This has caused assets on the NBU’s balance sheet to grow by about 60%yoy in recent months and by 8%mom in January (seasonally-adjusted). "
They are printing with complete wreckless criminal abandon: bonds and currency!
The level of monetization is way more than triple what The US Treasury and The FED have admitted to colluding together to float the system with as a gross percentage of bonds and currency en todo. ..& The FED had a huge stock of MBS to soak as well as the global payments system to disburse the emission to
This is a massive torrent of raw unsterilized counterfeiting of preposterous proportion to the existing stock.
Christine LaGarde presonally sent the Ukrainians letters telling them to flat out stop it or the IMF wouldn't give 'em any more emergency loans.
"We Weimar'd some folks."
This is gonna be one for the history books easily rivaling the German and Hungarian tsunamis of the last centrury.
There is no way in hell this can be reversed or mitigated at this point. Ukraine is doomed to suffer the full destructive force of a currency collapse. The damage is by no means completed...
IMHO, regretably, the Ukrainian citizenry would have been far better off being quietly wholly subsumed by Russia than face this tragedy. Everyone is trying to 'save' Ukraine ( for their own greedy purposes ) and they are burning it to the ground 'saving' it.
Disgusted and anguished do not fully convey the feelings I am experiencing...
IF you do such things as pray, you should pray for these people; -they are going to go straight through Hell.
"IMHO, regretably, the Ukrainian citizenry would have been far better off being quietly wholly subsumed by Russia than face this tragedy. "
Russia does not want their Nazi, lazy asses. Who would. The East is the center of industry and called "restive". Oh, and they all speak Russian?
Who knew. Hard-working, productive, hard playing people, and they're Russian?
Partition would have been a better answer than what is unfolding.
Who would actually want the 'Nazi, lazy'? Average Ukrainians, the EU, the British, the Israelis, the USA?
Unless I am mistaken the general consensus is that true Nazi types are not really welcome in most 'polite' company.
They would be a dangerous fringe element no matter the constitution of the nation unless they were to seize power and use it to disenfranchise the remainder, and any fringe/minority ideological element that seizes power and disemfranchises the remainder majority is unpopular no matter the ideology. See: Neocon, Neolib, Zionism, Feudalism, 1%er, Junta, Annanuki, etc...
The fact is that Ukraine only has a tiny minority that espouse such ideological concepts, and I suspect many of these only use the imagery as a front for more classic mobsterism and warlordism. Espoused Nazis may be a dominant militant organization in some parts of Ukraine; but, I am doubtful that Ukraine is generally predominantly dominated by Nazi ideology...
This is life-saving by the Madeleine Albright model.
That's what the support of the neo-Nazis is all about. They are just replaying WWII, only slight further to the West. After all the original German Nazis were funded, finances, politically supported and built by the Western powers terrified of being voraciously murdered in bolshevic revolutions.
Of course those "powers" were played for fools by those who fund them. I am fairly convinced that the entire 20th Century was simply a socio-psychological experiment to determine whether National Socialism or Communism was a better method for controlling the masses.
Maybe Greece could forward the terms of their, cough, Troika bailout. Oh and in a couple days they'll run out of gas. HA HAH. US foreign policy is fucking insane.
Not if you guzzle a 26 of vodka and look at it backwards and upside down.
The problem with the Hryvnia is that it's called Hryvnia. WTF is that?
I think a quick name change would provide some currency stability.
Oh, don't worry. They WILL be changing its name at some point in the near future. It will henceforth be called the New Hryvnia. They'll probably change the colors, too.
Small trivia.
There's a bullshit piramid-eye symbol on the 500 Hryvna note.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine-2006-Bill-500-Reverse.jpg
You never know these days, maybe that's their target for the USD/UAH rate.
I like Hryvnia eats Ruskie: The sequel
" A moving, down on ur knees game of life"
The end game will have winners. Expect the usual suspects to walk away with some nice profits. And the Ukrainian farm lands, fracking potential and what little of industry remains, will all be sold to western baks for pennies on the dollar. Again, you can be certain the usual suspects, whose name can not be mentioned, will own Ukraine.
The people went to Maidan on the promise of a German lifestyle and EU passports which entail freedom of movement within the EU. Thus the mass exodus of youth for Paris, London, Berlin, Rome, Stockholm, Madrid. In the flush of freedom, at least 2 million youth will move within weeks. More will follow as they arrange transport. Anywhere in Germany or west of Germany will be their target sites.
Spain has a Ukie Consulate in Malaga, Spain to service their folks. I expect more to come.
They were promised a German lifestyle, and they got it - the WW2 version.
"Expect the usual suspects to walk away with some nice profits. And the Ukrainian farm lands, fracking potential and what little of industry remains, will all be sold to western baks for pennies on the dollar. Again, you can be certain the usual suspects, whose name can not be mentioned, will own Ukraine"
Maybe some of the perps will be found here:
"The government discussed imposing a duty on non-essential imports last week and the NBU earlier this week increased scrutiny and put into place checks on import pre-payments exceeding US$50,000 (and required a letter of credit from an investment-grade-rated bank for those exceeding US$500,000)"
This doesn't end with anybody from the west owning anything in Ukraine.
Once the regime crumbles to a critical level, and it is crumbling, the backlash against those allied with the west will be brutal in the extreme.
Putin is milking the attack by the west on the east for all he is worth, but don't be fooled. The future for everyone in Ukraine who took part in maidan or was ever associated with western politics is grim. If they are not on the last chopper out of Lvov with Porky and our man Yats, god help them for what they be judged to have done to their people.
I can't keep track of which one, exactly, of the Protocols of Zion we are now on. I think it is a combo actually. Media control, military civilian police, politicians bought and paid for, globalization of corps, slavery of populations,,,, But one of them covers this strategy of bankrupting nations so as to own the world.
PINKY:
Gee, Brain, what do you want to do tonight?
BRAIN:
The same thing we do every night. Try to take over the world.
They're Pinky and the Brain
Yes, Pinky and the Brain
One is a genius, the other's other insane
They're laboratory mice
Their genes have been spliced
They're Pinky, they're Pinky and the Brain
Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain
Before each night is done
Their plan will be unfurled
By the dawning of the sun
They'll take over the world
Before each night is done
Their plan will be unfurled
By the dawning of the sun
They'll take over the world
They're Pinky and the Brain
Yes, Pinky and the Brain
Their twilight campaign is easy to explain
To prove their mousy worth
They'll overthrow the earth
They're Pinky, they're Pinky and the Brain
Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, Brain, narf
Songwriters
STONE, RICHARD / RUEGGER, TOM
I am incredulous watching the human citizens of this world take careful, precise aim at their own feet. After thousands of years of written history of the same things not working!
Working fine for the lizard people.
Makes more sense than anything I've ever learned in church or school.
We're not repeating the mistakes of the past because we're unmindful of history. We're being LED through this circle of rise and fall by the elites. That have it all mapped out. Not to the day, but they know damned well the waypoints to make the turns.
Let me ask you something. When was the last time you heard a politician or banker talk about avoiding the mistakes of the past? Never. They only talk about what "needs" to be done next. And they walk the world around in a big circle like at the pony rides.
And here I was taught the Poles were the stupid shits of Europe.
Well, off to work on my Ukrainian Book of Jokes...
A Ukranian goes to the eye doctor. The bottom line of the eye chart has the letters:
C Z Y N Q S T A S Z.
The Optometrist asks, "Can you read this?"
"Read it?" the Ukie replies, "I know the guy."
****
Knock, Knock?
Who's there?
Ukranian burgler.
*****
A guy walks into a bar, sits down and orders a beer. He says to the bartender, "Hey, want to hear a good Uke joke?"
The bartender says, "Tell you what.... I'm Ukranian. See those two big guys playing pool? They're Ukranian. See those other two guys sitting at the end of the bar? They're Ukrainian. You still want to tell your "Uke" joke?"
The man replies, "Not if I'm gonna have to explain it five fucking times."
The Ukraine girls really knock me out.
They leave their boyfriends dead at night.
"And here I was taught the Poles were the stupid shits of Europe."
Read your history. In the war between Poland and the Ukraine the Polish won handily.
Why do you ask?
Because on the front lines, when the Ukrainians kept throwing hand grenades, the Polish soldiers would pull out the pins and throw them back.
The Kiev Nazis have kept this tactic alive an well in the East for posterity.
Dude, that's funny.
Uh, yea, they ride the pony we walk through the shit
They evolved from a bad batch of Primordial soup.
Many of their best were murdered by Stalin, in one of the largest genocides of the 20th century.
Big difference there.
Thanks for the history lesson, I was unaware that the lizard people had been genocided.
It looks like Stalin did shoddy work...
Bigotry comes in many flavors.
Thanks for showing your true colors.
WTF? Lizard people refers to Illuminati, Zionists, Banksters, Puppetmasters, etc, not Jews or Ukrainians.
Go Godwin another thread.
Then it's settled, we'll call it Ukrainistan.
Ukrainistan.
Thanks to the Dumfukistanis of Dumfukistan formerly USA
Meh ~ Just ask Tevye, Motel, Yente, Golde, Tzeitel, Hodel, Chava, & Perchick what they want to call it.
Sorry, if anything it's 'NovoKhazaria', ancient home of the self-chosenites.
I've been watching this grow for twenty years, with sadness and disgust.
I've watched as US NGO's funded the tribe in its' efforts to undermine any efforts tocreate a prosperous nation, all the while stealing everything.
It's a beautiful country with wonderful people.
It has the best soil on the planet; and yet Ukraine was buying agricultural products from Turkey (wheat and potatos). At the same time they were exporting wheat and potatos. Quite a clever trick.
My initial outward rage has subsided while a slow and indescribable loathing grows. The same tribe is back openly in force doing what it does best, the only thing it knows.
Maybe this time it will be diffrent.
"Russia will cut off gas supplies to Ukraine if Kiev fails to pay in “three or four days,” President Vladimir Putin said, adding that this "will create a problem" for gas transit to Europe."
-RT
Putin should have done that LONG ago. Fuck the NeoNazis of Kiev
The "NeoNazis of Kiev" will do just fine no matter what. It's the average Ukrainian that's going to get fucked.
No problem , Joe Bidens' bastard son has plans to frack the fuck out of Ukraine. Oh , wait..............
If the Ukraine 'endgame' is anything like the Greek 'endgame', they're already casting the next 'JASON', & the art department is working on the new hockey mask design.
Therefore ~ I predict this will all come to a resolution around the end of October, or early November-ish, which is rather convenient, because a lot of money printing 'folks' will have the opportunity to stuff a lot of cash up their noses in the process.
i am willing to bet that monetary gold reserve will be gone. i am surprised alot of people didnt see this comming sooner- collapsing the curreny to force them to act in the EU's favor.
Didn't they have around 80 tons about a year ago? Seems to be disappearing fast!
At first I tried to reason with the ones I knew. Then I just decided to shut the fuck up and let it all play out as fate intended. That country had so much tied up in the relationship with Russia that jumping while screaming anti Russia slogans was equivalent to sitting at the top of a Sequoia while cutting the very branch on which one is perched. Good luck, Ukies. God help you all.
The IMF will pony up the bucks! It's not theirs to begin with.
Here in the good 'ol USSA the taxpayer gleefully watches some some dancing with half assed stars bullshit, none the wiser that their bucks support this crap!
FUBAR!
He built that. Disarmed then in 2006 and walked the fuck away now.
I swear to gawd, I LOVE on threads across the internet when posters feign indignation over..."OUR TAX DOLLARS"
Where the fuck have they been? Looks over at the Fed spread sheets...OMG..."tax dollars"? what a fucking JOKE...
Its funny money you idiots, the gov dont need no stinkin tax dollars, they print at will...
the bad news is that they figured out they dont need us. we will reflect upon a time when they depended on those god awful taxes, and refer to that as "the good ol days".. irony
Our US democratically elected government, making friends...er...slaves all over the world.
It's like the War on Poverty gone international.
At some point in near future, Americans traveling abroad will be considered suspected terrorists requiring a local to vouch for an entry visa.
Every "war on" in post WW2 history seems to have only created more of the thing. War on drugs? More drugs. War on poverty? More poverty. War on terror? More terror.
What we need is a good old fashioned, openly declared war, but this time put it on something useful like, manufacturing and the middle class.
We've got to stop this bullsh*t coming out of the ministry of truth where everything that is "being supported" gets destroyed and everything that has been declared war on thrives.
The chance of getting the money is gettin slim with each second. The parlament is refusing to vote for the strings attached to it so far. It has a reason. Like after it, payments for basic services - heat, gas, electicity will exceed average monthly salary! Another condition is restructuring of the debt ( that is where 15bn come from) , which Putin refuses.
IMF may give the money under pressure from US/EU to preserve the gas flow but this will never be paid back. I question if donors would agree to lose money this way at all... Ukraine need about 150 billions to recover..
Now, Ukraine has a couple of billions left and this is it, huge debt on salary to goverment workers, no tax collection 30% fall of industrial output, etc. .... the state is failing.. we should expect emergency UN food shipment in a few months...
And of course...surprise...the USA will have to do this.
There is no one else left to do it. Probably the plan all along...
Pretty sure the sanctions idea was Europe not the USA's "cuz they're smarter than we are."
That we aren't pushing harder for even more economic punishment because, you know..."like we killed 'em and all that"...well, what a surprise.
Does appear the cease fire is suddenly holding. I'm sure Mish is disappointed. "Never saw too many dead Ukrainians" that dude.
Of course the Russian economy has been the big winner in all this too.
And Belorussia.
Oh, yeah.
Anyone here have a plan to fix that cuz it sure ain't coming from the Secretary of State, Berlin or Moscow.
And yet the very evil and isolated Russians haven asked for their bonds back. Imagine if they would.
When does Japan fail
my guess within 10 - 20 years
The US/EU/IMF will be pouring billions down this rathole they call a country to the tune of trillions to keep this turd on life support-- until the asset stripping is completed. China, Russia & the BRICs better start demanding something besides worthless $s for their goods soon.
Every Ukrainian will tell you that it's Putin's fault.
Every Ukrainian west of the Dnieper. You know why those Crimeans were smiling broadly as they voted to join Russia last year?
How about 17 percent Russian FLAT tax rate and double the pensions that Kiev Ukies get.
I'm thinking maybe a big "Mad Max" themepark. What is "you can run, but you can't hide!" in Russian?
All that's left now is for the Ukraine to say thankyou.
Time to join EuroZone and get E 100 B EUR.
I am sure Yats the Rat already has a couple of billion squirreled away and a place to bail out to.
That son of bitch needs a bullet or 2 in his fucking skull ASAP
Who bought $2,500,000,000.00 in Domincan Republic bad debt to bailout Venezuela creeps bonds?
Huh Janet?
Who?
This is a pretty good video ''Crimea for Dummies''
Of course its BANNED in the USA LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1zvb_ottiw
From my extensive travels around eastern Europe i find it incomprehensible that the false lure of western riches by association still holds any sway.
In fact i struggle to find ANY evidence that any one of these countries has developed its infrastructure or raised its standard of living in the last 20/25 years.
Mini-cab drivers, hotel work and strip clubs remain the top 3 occupations for those who happen to escape.
The grass is not always greener. . . .
Advice - Look East
dupe
Is Putin waiting for the IMf to fund the Ukis before cashing in the 3 billion debt bond?
If i were ol' Lemonhead i would say, "listen up Walzman. You turn the gas back on to Donbass or i make your hernia currency reserves 3 billion dollars worth less in 24 hours"
Why aren't those candy ass Greeks Tsirpussy and Whatthefakus screaming bloody murder that no love for one of their own while the Troika pour 17 billion down the Kyiv rat hole
I'm sure it would be different if Greece had a border and a port bordering evil Russia.
The new Greece blew their wad. They crawled back in their hole to be ignored and disrespected for a few more generations. They had their moment in the spotlight and if heads don't roll, they're just another blowhard wannabe. Now, give me control of Canada, and we'll set some precedents. Of course, I would be hung by the mall-sheep in a heartbeat.
It's like Harvey Mackay, the entreprenuer, and respectable envelope company CEO recounts, "My staff of 20 employees became encouraged to join a local Minnesota union. Now being a young and inexperienced businessman, I consulted my lawyer on the best plan of action to avoid being forced to pay wages I simply could not afford. He said, "Call each one in individually and really lay it on. You know, all part of the same team etc.", and so I did. Nineteen of the twenty said "Harvey, we understand, and we're with you on this." Sure enough, the vote was 19:1. In favor of the union."
We have lost our way. We have lost the honor and moral strength which made humanity great. We have succumbed to greed and the ensuing attitude of entitlement. We must refuse to live in fear, and prosecute the traitors who pretend to protect, but deliberately destroy our freedom. Long live ZeroHedge.
Ukrainian super markets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rRxDz9Nsew
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nhz6Y9gFYI8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46CtS9kw0-0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8vUV4ok5n0
Soon, Wallmart near you
And the EU is going to bail them out?
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/light-hearted-look-at-european-debt-crisis-clarke-and-dawe-skit-still-releveant-three-years-later/
'geography and the ever-ending trail-of-tears, submerged in cultural nationalism... season'd with religious zeal annually-- the perfect recipe for ethereal[?]perpetual revenge ?'
Russia's Tsarist oppression on the Muslim's of the Caucasus mountainers, the Azerbaidjan, Armenian's, and Chechen people not to mention the precurser that Imam Shamil created leading up to the Bolshevik revolution. Lenin and Engal spoke much of Shamil regarding their failed path regarding oriental Russifcation along the lines of a moar passive reunification of all the proletariet?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imam_Shamil (1797-1871) Note: he was exiled in Kiev! [But] spent tyme in Crimea and Odessa besides being a guest of the Sultan of Ottoman's and met with Emperor Alexander II whom exiled him... although secretly had admiration for Shamil's plight!?! Strange!!!
At this tyme in history the only countries of any importance were the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire always at each others throats. What's changed is that their geography today can be used as revenge against the Western Empires for past aggression with a Chinese Silk-Road thrown into the mixed for modernity with Ukraine and the Baltic's, Caucasus all enjoying the fruits of their indigenous` GEOGRAPHY!!!
Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murid (Sufism & Tariqa)
jmo
Ukrain can be heading to an economic collpse but the one getting the hit from American rating agencies are the Russian banks. Weird not?
My question, has anyone analysed the winter wheat crop.
Very soon nitrogen going to be needed! (spring coming)
If the currency has just tanked, input costs may make the crop Cashflow negative for farmers (fuel, fertiliser, anti fungal sprays) imports.
Ukraine was a larger supplier of cereals.