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How To Trade Oil For HFT Idiots 102
Yesterday we provided the initial template for how to trade oil if you are an HFT idiot. Today we move to the next step in the evolution... In a perfect mirror of last week's trading, Oil dumped on API inventories this week, pumped on DOE inventories (both massively more than expected builds) and then dumped it all back the next day on absolutely no news whatsoever - back to a $48 handle. Tomorrow we have 'rig count' data - which by now we know is entirely irrelevent for now to any changes in supply - but last week created a manic meltup into the NYMEX close... trade accordingly.
As we noted above, if prior performance is a predictor of future success (or failure), and with self-referential HFT algos it ususally is, ahead of tomorrow's 103rd lesson, here is what tomorrow's trading session should look like, when factoring in the all important "latest and greatest"rig count plunge.
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Fuck oil. Fuck paper markets even though Im still in this shit show, but my profits are going to hard asset classes daily.
for maximum profits front run Exxon
"Fuck oil". Sounds about right for a dope-smoking, gimme-free-shit, Obama-tron.
Has the HFT lobby managed to exempt HFT firms from these FCC regs? Then again , as the Jesuits say , asked and answered. Doubtless , these regs will NOT apply to HFT firms , particularly with respect to throttling of packets.
Rig count, rig count, rig count..............for a true direction of crude production watch the service rig count.
service rig count..........hard number to come by, but more accurate.
Key Energy Services, Bakken, Total Service rigs...28, in service last week 24.....prior week26..........
As expected, the Tylers clean up on the 'Idiots' e-book circuit, another best-seller.
The price is irrelevant, only the moves matter. Positioned properly you could have made a killing off the moves last week even though the end price and start price ended up the same.
Someone wants WTI pegged to a $2 range of $50.
SO tell me how the oil business changed within the last 48 hours?
PROJECTS ON, NOPE PROJECTS OFF, NOPE PROJECTS ON, OH SHIT OFF AGAIN.
Note in yesterday's $2.00 run up the J/M Apr-Jun crude spreads weakened by 40 cents. During today's $2.60 collapse they widened a further 70 cents. Regarding this article let's see the author's trade confirms to see if he has the balls to actual put his money where his opinion is.
Tomorrow when the Genscape numbers (the pre DOE - API data that the professionals pay for to know what the inventories are going to be reported) are released then we will see if the theory holds.
Remember ZHers, production growth slows before it reverses.
When has production ever reversed?
I mean the Banks who just swap spit with the Fed have missed this ENTIRE credit cycle...let alone the biggest investing boom probably in history at this point.
Hillibrton is off 50% while simple utility plays like WEC hit one record high after another.
That says to me PRICE has the problem here as a utility can only make money from the rate payer.
A fifty percent decline in fuel costs for a utility is great news for them.
Taint like the rate payer is getting a break.
I can trade HFT Idiots and get oil??? oy vey, such a deal!
Prediction:
Within 2 years a new oil pricing will have 1 benchmark price. It will be known as EPP. Eurasian Physical Price.
Very insightful for a idiot like me TnX! (No pun intended)