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The One Number The Market Is Focused On: Real Hourly Wages Surge Most Since Lehman Deflationary Shock
In today's deluge of macro data, one number stood out: the parallel release by the BLS of the real average hourly earnings, which is simply taking the previously reported nominal hourly wage data, and applying whatever deflator gets released in parallel by the BLS. And, not surprisingly, after the nominal jump in January wages, a number which may very well be revised lower as has been the case so often before, courtesy of the headline deflation, the real jump in hourly wages was even higher. In fact, rising to an inflation adjusted $10.55/hour from $10.42 in December, it meant real wages rose by 1.2%, which was the best jump in hourly wages since... the months following the Lehman collapse. Because everyone remembers how the deflationary vortex in the aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy led to a sense of wealth and eagerness to spend deflation adjusted wages.
In any event, if indeed Yellen was on the fence with a June rate hike ahead of the wage number, then following today's deflationary data and nominal increase in wages, the case for a rate hike is that much stronger.
On a monthly and annual basis:
And the reaction...
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Interesting. Odd that the velocity of that money hasn't picked up at all...
tick tock...
Probably because people are using the the cash to pay down debt and is getting sucked right back in to the banks
Lay off the bottom quartile, the curve shifts, better numbers of your choice.
EU is trying to debase currency rapidly in order to try & hold it together.
Euro just took out 112 vs USD! We're headed to parity on EUR vs USD way sooner than I expected!
It's unbelievable. The EUR was worth 1.58 USD not THAT long ago!
What a crock of shit. These are day pay increases to the wide bottom end, big employers paying part timers. What a clown party this country is.
Our company had to raise the starting wage, to attrack actual talent, by 25% over the past 3 years. We have doubled our business in the past 5 years and have a good profit margin. We are and must be a rarity.
Do you actually manufacture something real or simply push paper?
Maybe he works for a Boston snow removal company?
Plot out the weighting of payroll impacts at all salary levels, the hold a mirror on the y axis perpendicular to the page, I imagine you would see a champagne glass, thin in the middle, fat up top, and broad down low.
Lets talk about the strong rational and effective markets. LOL
As long as government employees' salaries are included in this data, this is a useless metric. It might instead portend doom in the same way that including obamacare premiums in consumer spending does.
Simple answer to this problem. The bottom half of workers were laid off leaving the higher ups with big paychecks. Yes, your average wage increased.
We manually masturbate caged animals for artificial insemination...
Actually, we provide HR consulting services - recruiting, screening, interviewing, payroll, applicant tracking, etc.
Dr., I love you and your success, and hope you continue with it, but you do actually masturbate caged animals for artifical insemination.
I do that for fun. The HR consulting of the last 20 years is our primary focus.
Dr. Richard Head, I am also a consultant, and I do real, value-adding stuff - and I am doing also well. Allow me one question: Your company is not one of those entirely unproductive service sector shenanigans, which contribute nothing to mankind and are ultimately just a sign of decay?
That is a hard one to answer. We do contribute to the success of companies that produce and manufacture things by making sure that company knows the history and integrity of the people they hire, but much of our success is past of the increasing Federal and State government regulations on companies. I would rather not see the government deciding what to sort of people a company can or cannot hire. It's an internal conflict I hold each and every morning.
I understand. Thx. Have a nice day.
yes... and no. yes, it is a currency war. no, have a look at CB balance sheet levels
It's no currency war if the U.S. is going to let EU devalue € vs USD, is it?
Will you admit that I'm correct if € tags 1.08 USD?
1 USD?
When?
Ghordius is a statist fuck. Good luck getting a response that isn't consistent with the "script" as it were, but yes, you are correct.
It tripped 1.1280-70, just to be perfectly accurate.
http://headlines.ransquawk.com/headlines/eur-usd-breaks-through-technica...
I honestly wasn't expecting anything close to parity until late 2015 or early 2016, to be honest.
So few are hammering how significant this rapid move is and the massive implications that flow from it are.
"It's no currency war if the U.S. is going to let EU devalue € vs USD, is it? "
I'm not sure I understand. In the other thread, I gave a longer answer. Yes and No is Yes and No
my longer answer involved how much firepower is spent in order to have this currency war going on, in terms of balance sheet
where my answer is that the USD moves more then anything else. and the tag price... I sincerely don't know. It will depend on the FED's rate increases, eventually
It's really a simple question.
Are you claiming that the U.S., knowing how desperate the EU is to debase the € relative to not only the USD, but other major currencies, in order to try & keep the EU together for a longer period of time, could NOT fight this relative debasement to the USD, if it chose to do so?
That is exactly what I am doing.... mainly because I will be jobless after March 31 because of Obamacare.
A 19 year old I know recently got a part time job working in a small bakery.
She hopes to be put on full time in a few months.
I didn't have the heart to point out the realities.
Though, you'd think she would've gotten a clue from her 3 years older brother. He's needed as many as 3 jobs to approach a 40 hour work week. Now he's going to college and only has 2 part time jobs.
Welcome to the new neo feudal Amerika.
Just wait till millions more formerly illegals are let in.
Land of Opportunity.
Paying off debt? Maybe Americans do have brains and are finally deciding to use them. Now maybe they will start buying manufactured goods that Amercians make.
"Bring U-6 down."
That's easier said than done and often a convenient excuse for why there's no manufacturing done here anymore.
Two problems with buying goods made in America. 1. Not that many things are made in America anymore and 2. Sometimes the quality of the item isn't as good as something that's from say Germany.
Further, I will not buy a car from an American maker who had to get in bed with .gov to help steer the bankruptcy in such a way as to cheat bond holders whose savings was invested in those bonds and whose principal was decimated.
Got that right!
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=M2V
That is one scary trend Headbanger.
They've surged by $0.15/hour - therefore, my 40hr week now nets me an extra $6! Or, $4.50 after tax!
You could go to the movie theatre and buy a box with 5 milk duds inside.
But you get such a nice big box.
Good point.
Bingo!
But wages are skyrocketing...............
Of course, it all depends on the deflator factor that you use, doesn't it?
People are deleveraging with whatever extra-money they have.
$16.80 a month, gee thanks, Boss!
Don't spend it all in one place. Set aside a dollar for a rainy day.
Not even enough for a Papa Johns pizza!
It's all bull...
" It's all bull . . ."
How much has the cost of bull (beef) gone up over the last year ?
I care not who writes the laws . . . just allow me to choose the numbers used in the 'statistics'.
No kidding! This has got to be depicting only .Gov employees..
Then those retail raise will hit in a few months...
Janet...rate hikes on line 1
So this isn't the Wal-mart raise? Something like a half million people that were making less than $9 an hour getting a raise up to $9, plus some token raises for other employees?
But... but... but the numbers are all lies, you can't believe anyone... BLS/BS, Yellen etc.
Let's hope for continued increases in the velocity of wage inflation. Yellen and her minions look at this to guage the potential for future price inflation. If the trend continues, it's a big step towards getting the fed out of the market manipulation business. One can only dream.......
Same thing happened during the period of 1880-1900 and the country went into the toilet. Oh,,,uh....wait....I think those were good times.
Actually, it is great news for the employee not the employer. However, when it gets too high someone will invent a robot to do the work. Always a fear.
The "Gay Ninety's" started with the Clinton administration ? The Lemmings get giddy the last ten years of every century !
Salary adjustments (PAYCOLA) for all government employees kick in for the new year ?
Better raise rates and slow down the roaring eCONomy. We don't want the proles earnning enough to feed themselves for more than 3 days out of the week.
E-CON-omy
There fixed it for ya!
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--- Teeth's US Dream Anthem --
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- It is 1 Minute to Midnight: Neo-Feudal Debt Slavery & nuke war
- Problem is Bankers, Politicians, Lawyers & Judges
- Failure of Self Regulation of Bankers, Politicians, Lawyers & Judges
- US Constitution is Usurped, Gone are Budget Powers, Legislative Powers, War Powers
- Money has taken over the Government, Banking, Universities, Science
- American Dream is over, Corruption is the same in all Countries now
- Old American Dream may serve as basis for new Country someday
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--- Teeth's US Dream Anthem --
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The wage 'inflation' is a one time event.
The only reason the hourly wages went up is that many states on Jan.1 raised the level of the minimum wage.
More money for the serfs? Frankly I'm SHOCKED....and I just dribbled my martini a bit....SELL Mortimer, SELL!!
There is always a way to spin it positive, and that’a about all the rah-rahs know how to do anymore.
Of course they’re not going to mention that the guy who still can’t find a job after 36 months has a real hourly wage decline of 100%.
Isn't this inflationary? (He asks rhetorically.)
The Socialists (my term for the FED and all the aparatchiks) .... will not stop .... until, every clown (that would be me) .... who dreamt of retiring some day .... or dreamt of a better life for his family .... by saving PMs .... wil be living under a bridge .... watch what you post !
Yes socialist/communists/nwo/progressives all want the same thing.. A 2 class world. Them and their slaves
You forgot Republicans. Everybody loves big government, they just disagree on how to spend the loot.
No, they don't. They all want to spend the loot on them and their friends. The only difference is who their friends are.
Just got my check.... Nope, it's the same.
Must be those Wally World workers who just got their big raise to $9.
This is shaping up just like 2008. There is some wage pressure build up for this spring/summer (at least in our area), but once the oil price decrease ramifications start being felt this fall, lets see if the wage increases hold. Kind of hard to demand wage increases when firms start cutting back workforces. All these fortune 500 firms are going to struggle to keep their share prices up with their financial engineering tactics when the strong dollar and lower revenue starts being felt on the bottom line. Then they fall back to their number one tactic, mass layoffs, so less money going out the door immediately, so they can meet quarterly numbers and executive bonuses can continue to flow. Ahhhhh.....bonuses...the life blood of Wall Street/Private Equity firms!
That was our bad.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/goldman-employees-reaped-2-billion-from-2008-options-last-year
I got a notice from Union Bank .... they said if I didn't show some "Account Activity" .... in the next 30 days .... they would have to close my account .... I quickly went to their ATM .... and withdrew $20 .... a few days later .... I re-deposited it !
The bank was empty .... but, for one teller, me and a "Banker" sitting at a desk .... the cute and very sweet teller .... encouraged me to save money by depositing one dollar the first week, then $2 the second week, etc. .... at the end of the year I would have $1400 or such .... I thanked her and told her I was a saver .... of a few coins .... the "Banker" perked up and wished me a good morning as I left !
Of course, if you talk to most people in your local bank, they have no idea how banking really works. That includes those who are involved in the paperwork to make 'loans' and the branch manager.
My local coin dealer ..... banks there .... so, by maintaining a $60 savings account .... I don't have to pay the $5 check cashing fee .... of course, I only sell when absolutely necessary ! Walk quietly, be friendly to all and listen !
My Mattress gets lots of Activity...
Remember; half of that increase was from me!
Thank you, Mr. Mortimer! Maybe I can to the movies; by myself!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av_vcjD2h2g
LOL
Do these numbers take into account that there were a number of states that raised the minimum wage?
So I'm goin to guess not so bullshit
WTF? If you promote the Weasels at the top, you get an Increase!! WTF does this even mean? What does that prove.
Hey if Foreigners are coming to Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and South Carolina and buying homes... and that skews the National total average price of homes upward... well what does that prove?
If Legal Immigrants and Illegal Immigrants buy houses and apartments and raise the national stats, what does that mean??
- If it is reported as Economic Growth or Recovery, it means the MSM is bought and paid for!!
What is the difference between a daylight saving hourly wage and a regular hourly wage?
Could this account for the increase today which will be erased on Sunday?
although with 90M people note working, this is pushing on a string.
Why is a rate hike called for with greater deflation? A rise in rates will just intensify the trend.
bull.....fucking.......shit. Labor hasn't been in a power position since I can't remember when. So, its all about the deflator as per usual. Just making it up as they go. Nothing to see here. Seriously, can you see some kid rushing home, "Momma I got a raise - my real wage actually rose this month." "yeah that's great kid.....we'll need it cause the rent just went up."
"Surge." 13 cents an hour on the average! One CEO got a bonus. Main street is still behind. C'mon Tylers 'surge' is not objective reporting.
Now, now, let's stick to the narrative. Everything is awesome! US workers never had it so good. Everybody gets a wage hike, stable prices, the Fed has done its job and can raise the fed funds rate to 0.5%.
Thrilling! Banks will lose billions. I suggest Janet and her Fed butt-buddies raise interest rates four to six times this year.Get that Fed funds rate up to 2%. Banks will then lose trillions, stock market will crash, US government deficit goes over $1 trillion for the year.
Keep it going, Janet. Get that rate back to "normal" by 2017. 4 1/2-5%. The entire world will tailspin into a massive depression, much worse than the one we're in already.
Fools. The Fed's stuck in a corner and they cannot get out for at least 7-10 years. If they start hiking rates this year, expect it to be at a rate of .25% per quarter, or per half year.
2016: .75%
2017: 1.25%
2018: 2.00%
2019: 2.75%
2020: 3.50%
The above figures are extremely optimistic and will cause so much stress and pain that they are likely unachievable. Figure, at best, 1.00% by the end of 2017, 2.25% by the end of 2020. In other words, five more years to squeeze the baby boomers towards early default and death.
We're so fucking fucked, I can't fucking stand it.
I thank god I have a brain, good health, some farming/gardening skills, silver bars, an old truck and NO STOCKS.
The Fed will raise rates in the middle of a deflationary depression. Brilliant, motherfuckers! Cue 1937. Ass-holes.
Fuck you, Janet, you pompous, self-dealing whore, and fuck the government, from my town supervisor, all the way up to Mr. Oboner.
About six months ago, I used the word "fuck" six times in a single sentence here. Still fell short of the point I was trying to make.
Who got the raise .... the "Dictatorship (of the lazy, government filth) of the Proletariat" !
Bull crap, this is just the results of a ludicrous deflator and bumped minimum wage laws - plus they are probably still averaging in Zuckerberg's $10,000,000/hr, maybe he gave himself a fat raise and that makes it look like everyone in America got ten cents an hour.