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Chicago PMI Crashes Most Since Lehman To Lowest Since July 2009
January's brief 'hope' bounce following 3 months of weakness is long forgotten as February's Chinago PMI crashes to 45.9 (missing expectations of 57.5) - its lowest since July 2009. This is the biggest MoM drop since Lehman in Oct 2008. New Orders suffered the largest monthly decline on record, leaving them at the lowest since June 2009. Seems like it is time to blame the weather... PMI says it is "difficult to gauge magnitude of weather and port strike" but blames it nonetheless.
The biggest drop since Lehman (and 2nd biggest since 1980)...
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- Forecast range 55 - 59.6 from 43 economists surveyed
- Prices Paid rose compared to last month
- New Orders fell compared to last month
- Employment fell compared to last month
- Inventory rose compared to last month
- Supplier Deliveries rose compared to last month
- Production fell compared to last month
- Order Backlogs fell compared to last month
- Business activity has been positive for 11 months over the past year.
Commenting on the Chicago Report, Philip Uglow, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said,
“It’s difficult to reconcile the very sharp drop in the Barometer with the recent firm tone of the survey. There’s some evidence to point to special factors such as the port strike and the weather, although we’ll need to see the March data to get a better picture of underlying growth.“
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"The West Coast port strike and the harsh winter probably had a negative impact in February, although it is difficult to gauge the magnitude."
Here - let us help - Snow Impact here and Port Strike Impact here...
* * *
Sure enough the "fault" lies on the weather.... (but didn't the economists know it was cold? and know about the port strikes?)
And cue the GDP downgrades and demands from the sell-side that Yellen delay rate hikes...
- *HATZIUS SEES `GOOD ARGUMENT' FOR FED MOVE AFTER SEPT.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Economists 0 Blind chimps tossing darts 1.
I pet named my junk LaVorgna and now I cant get laid.
That's bad, m-kay?
Re-name your LaVorgna .... Stallion Ganglia .... and maybe your luck will change .... "Junk" was invented by FemiNazi's !
is this a bad thing?
Of course not. It signals the start of the next QE.
is LaVorgna just an idoit or a plain simple sheeple ????
who the fuck listens to him anyways and yet people pay this dude to manage their money lol
we are living in a very dumb down society
Living here in Chicago there has only been about 3 days in February you would even want to be outside. February data is going to be terrible - just the way they want it
this is true. but it is winter. and last year was still worse.
Great lakes frozen over yet? Personally I am glad to see old man winter. Let's me know the earth and sun are just doing their thing.
That's just the Democrats controlling the weather. They want to keep the criminals off the streets during the mayoral elections so that their man gets back in.
So, winter in Chicago? Duh...
weather and port strike.
Now that should explain it. ;-)
Hello Janet...
Leading indicators continue to look worse and worse across the globe.
Naturally, this compels one to BTFAH.
Obama needs to do something about winter. It keeps happening every year.
He should be able to fix that with an executive order.
He is,
It's called Chem Trails.
One day it's warm and the sky fills with criss-crossing planes. Next thing you know, there's all these highly dispersed clouds.
And then, voila! It's in the single digits for the next two weeks!
(Or, it could just be the Northern Jet Stream dipping down into the US like it does, every winter).
Did you know that the Earth is actually closer to the Sun in winter (N. Hemisphere's winter, that is)?
Fed move after September...... yeah right. And when September comes and goes they will say the same thing about January.
It's still going to be in June. Exactly like I said it would be.
I may have miscalculated the year, however.
I think you miscalculated the decade. ;->
Stocks will recover in a frenzied rally later in the day and everything will be fine...Nasdaq 10,000,000,000,000,000 baby!
It's Zimbabwe for those Federal Reserve PhD dunces.
LOL, didn't need that PhD to print, Federal Reserve heads.
It's okay: the magic money machine will solve all our problems!
Taking bets for the first TBTF bank to collapse.
BoA!!
QE 4 in 4...3....2.....1....
Onward to the inevitable QE 4, QE 5, QE 6, QE 7, QE 8.... QE20.
USA=Japan.
Abeonomics and Zimbabwe straight ahead.
Eventually Abeonomics turns into Apeonomics. Even an ape could have done this.
Looks like the US has decoupled from the rest of the world. But not in a good way.
This is how the last crisis started. US down first, rest of world follows.
In the same way that Reggie Love decouples from Barry Obama?
LOL!!!!!
Yellen Yellen she's the man if she cant do it no one can!
PMI .... meet PMS ?
I'm so pissed at Global Warming I could eat nails and piss BBs.
I was promised three things: 1) Warmer weather year round, 2) Beachfront property (Ice caps melting) and 3) Bikini chicks. (Ok the last one was me). NONE of this has happened.
I tell ya, if you can't trust some doped-up, incense-smelling, tie-dyed shirt wearing, no-degree having 60 year old hippie - who can you trust?
Get with the program, its called Climate change so no matter what the temperature does they are right. Because if there is one thing that history has shown us is that the climate doesn't change.
well technically never does come after september
So apparently the weather is always sunny in Chicago and Texas doesnt have 3 times as many ports as California , Illinois doesnt have its own ports, and apparently doesnt have the most rail/truck facilities in the nation...aka most shit comes in through Canada.
"Nobody could have ever seen this coming." Cold, in Chicago, in the winter? Its not like economist are brain surgeons, or quantum physicists.
Come on people, aren't you queued into the "new normal."
Economists being disastrously wrong in their estimates is not new, but is, in fact, normal, ergo, the new normal is just plain old normal.
Now, back to our regularly-scheduled shit-fest: NASDAQ 5000
There's no bubble in stocks.
There's no bubble in stocks.
Oil will be $90 a barrel by October.
The Fed will raise rates in June, 2015.
Russia bad.
Obamacare good.
Concast bad (actually true)
FCC government regulations GOOD, unequivocally GOOD, so damn good you can taste it. Go ahead, lick your computer screen. We know you want to.
Dang! Now I've gone and given old Yennen a boner.
TGIF