Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown

Tyler Durden's picture

There was much hope that when Q3 GDP soared to 5%, primarily on the back of Obamacare spending recalendarization and a massive consumption/personal saving data revision, that the US economy would finally enter lift-off mode. Those hopes were reduced by about 60% when moments ago the BEA announced that Q4 GDP was revised from the original 2.64% print to only 2.18%, which while better than expected, was the lowest economic growth rate since the "polar vortex."

The main reason for the revision: a substantial drop in growth contribution from private inventories, which instead of adding 0.82% to the bottom GDP line, only contributed 0.12% in Q4 following the first revision. To be sure, this was perfectly expected, and is exactly what we said would happen last month after the first inventory number:

... here is what Q4 inventories did: rising by $113.1 billion in Q4,
this was the second highest quarterly increase in the 21st century,
second only to September 2010
. It's all GDP-crushing liquidations from here.


Following out post, the BEA revised the entire data series.

Some other changes:

  • Personal Consumption was 2.83% of the final GDP, down from 2.87%
  • Fixed Investment was 0.71%, vs 0.37% before, a number that will plunge in Q1 as a result of the shale capex halt.
  • Net trade subtracted even more from growth, with Net Exports less Imports amounting to -1.16%, down from -1.02%
  • Government offset the decline modestly, subtracting -0.32% from growth, compared to -0.40% in the first revision.

Full breakdown below.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
lordbyroniv's picture

so is the dress white & gold or black & blue?

GetZeeGold's picture



Crap.....no one is buying the healthcare insurance.....everyone is just paying the fine.

Headbanger's picture

What a bunch of fucking idiots getting it so wrong!

Shocker's picture

The economy has continued downhill, there has been no real economic solutions that are helping the economy.

Regulations will continue to send us lower

Current Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

LawsofPhysics's picture

Regulation?  Please, there are no regulations with respect to bankers and financiers.  They can still access all the free money they want for zero interest. 

As for everyone else, oh yes, I see what you did there...

booboo's picture

High priced hookers and guys selling loosies on the street corner saved us.

Haus-Targaryen's picture

This is the stupidest thing I have seen cross facebook for some time. 

That being said -- I never thought I would say this -- but Greenspan hit the nail on the head yesterday on CNBC.  I wonder if the Bernank will go soft in his old age.  

On an aside -- FUCK YOU BERNANKE!  

The Duke of Skiatook's picture

"On an aside -- FUCK YOU BERNANKE!"

In the mouth!

NoDebt's picture

You're not allowed to crash the car and then start a driving school.

I don't care if he's right or wrong today.  I don't even want to see his ugly, wrinked face again ever.  He belongs in prison for what he did, not placed on TV as some wizened authoriity of all things economic, whom we need to genuflect and bow in front of.  

He is utterly discredited.  He should be shunned.  Made to walk around with a scarlet letter M on his shirt for the rest of his life.

Tinky's picture

It's even worse with war criminals. Tony Blair making a fortune "consulting" various corrupt countries?


SilvertonguedAngel's picture

Or better yet a scarlett yarmulke.


It should be standard gear for all US Fed bank presidents since only  dual citizen IsraeliJews can have that job.

Colonel Klink's picture

Only reason Greedscam hit the nail on the head is because he's no longer with the feral "federal" (laughter) reserve (taxpayer's money).  Number one rule of working for the fed, never tell the truth if it will reveal their ultimate lie (the ponzi nature of printed money).

junction's picture

The U.S. economy is now just like a corpse floating on the water, the currents giving the body motion.  Don't expect any real facts from incompetent reporters, they are just good at lies of omission, such as leaving out who was the FBI informant of the three Brooklyn guys arrested yesterday for ISIS travel plans.

847328_3527's picture

wait a sec ... isn't a plunging GDP bullish?


even old man Bogle says "the stawk market is undervalued."

dimwitted economist's picture

2.2% Growth is Fucking GREEEAAAT!!!! (it's all BS anyway Bitches!) thank you obama!

Max Damage's picture

We need moar money to spend on Tesla's

max2205's picture

Weed is legal in DC now....can't buy it, can't  sell it 


You thought DC was fucked up before




loregnum's picture

That's a mainstream media like sensationalist headline. Should say revised to 2.2 from 2.6. 

JonNadler's picture

Tyler, what kind of BS aer you putting out here? I come to ZH to get the truth not some made up BS like from 5% to 2.2%

DavidC's picture

So, like the CPI yesterday...bullish?!



yogibear's picture

Wall Street seems ignore any negative news. William Dudley at the NY Fed ensuring the buying stays in play.

ejmoosa's picture

That's because every number that does not meet expectations convinces them there is pent up demand.

There isn't.  There's just faulty expectations.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

my local economy gpd is -2.5% still more closings of retail mall failing..but then I am in a backwater which cannot even qualify to be called fly over country.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this must be wrong, Mr Williams Czar of San Fran FED has said his economy is thru the roof there..somebody be lying..

yogibear's picture

All the fed members are still in the mode of trying to  talk-up the economy. Looks like it's not working.

Stuff debt into every crevice of the economy. Only the few of the 1% will have anything when these PhDs are done.

Transfer of wealth continues.

bmr22's picture

Same here, disability is the only growth industry around here.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Was this "priced in"?  LOL!!

I certainy hope everyone went long black markets and sharecropping because we are one more global incident away from "war bonds"...   (i.e. MyIRA)

if you don't surrender all your wealth/income you will be labeled a "terrorist"...

I know, I know, "it could never happen here"...

Dr. Engali's picture

We think, therefore we have already been labeled terrorists. 

Kaiser Sousa's picture

Dow 20,000

NasCrap 15,000.

ms8173's picture

Perfect time to smash gold and silver this morning...... anyone notice that?

Kaiser Sousa's picture


totally blindsided.

new game's picture

take away the trillion budget shortfall and walla, negative growth.

all bullshit=bullish...

redd_green's picture

Does anyone not high on crack think that the US economy actually *grew* 2.2% any time over the past 25 years?   Anyone?   60,000 factories shutdown all over the country, tens of millions of middle class people fired, and sent to work at McDonalds for minimum wage,  and the economy GREW?    Heh, yah. 

The man with pointy horns's picture


It grew in all the right places that mattered.

LooseLee's picture

The 'ILLUSION' that is FINANCIALIZATION at work....

Dr. Engali's picture

I thought Obama fixed everything. Looks like he needs toget to fixing everything  again.

papaswamp's picture

Trying to figure out where all this personal consumption is coming from when the monetary velocity keeps degrading.


RogerMud's picture

hookers and blow..ass always

LawsofPhysics's picture

Allow me to summarize that article;

Back in 2009 the bankers and financiers of the world agreed to switch from what was left of "mark to market" accounting and go full on "mark to model" (i.e. mark to FANTASY).  They had all their ivy league preists shill on and on and on about how this was appropriate.  Any academic who did not agree was not given funding or tenure and is now driving an airport shuttle bus somewhere.  The academics who supported mark to fantasy the most were given Nobel prizes... They bought all the politicians in the major western governments and changed all the laws to insure that what was once criminal behavior (like destroying 200+ years of contract law with respect to property titiles etc.) legal.  It continues to this day...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, I, for one, see increasing velocity in the black markets and barter...

Tinky's picture

I'm currently in Europe.

"...plus 23% VAT (or IVA, etc.) if you require an invoice." [emphasis mine]

redd_green's picture

Oh this US congress is chomping at the bit to get a nice 25% VAT instituted in the USA for them to waste on foreign wars, and giveawas to the billionaires.

redd_green's picture

Somebody above mentioned:  CEO's mostly got big bonuses and raises.

Alexgee's picture

These numbers are all BS and completely irrelevant. As if anyone still believed them and didn't think they were manipulated and curve fitted.They have to keep the narrative going and the sheeple byuing.

These numbers only matter to algos and the naive.

ejmoosa's picture

2.2% higher over the previous year's negative quarter.  Just how weak is that?



NoDebt's picture

You're looing at Q1 2014, not Q4 2013.  The last TWO bars on the right are both Q4 2014 (initial and revised).  

I know.  I did it too at first.

yogibear's picture

Eventually it gets so bad that even the BS spewed from these Fed PhDs won't work anymore.

youngman's picture

Its just going to be slow slow and slower from here on out.....to many people in the FSA to ever grow again...they are an anchor on the economy....add in the new illegals...they will dumb down America as schools will have to spend all their time and money trying to educate them....and the rest of the kids will just be forgotten and passed on to the next grade....Go America