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Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown
There was much hope that when Q3 GDP soared to 5%, primarily on the back of Obamacare spending recalendarization and a massive consumption/personal saving data revision, that the US economy would finally enter lift-off mode. Those hopes were reduced by about 60% when moments ago the BEA announced that Q4 GDP was revised from the original 2.64% print to only 2.18%, which while better than expected, was the lowest economic growth rate since the "polar vortex."
The main reason for the revision: a substantial drop in growth contribution from private inventories, which instead of adding 0.82% to the bottom GDP line, only contributed 0.12% in Q4 following the first revision. To be sure, this was perfectly expected, and is exactly what we said would happen last month after the first inventory number:
... here is what Q4 inventories did: rising by $113.1 billion in Q4,
this was the second highest quarterly increase in the 21st century,
second only to September 2010. It's all GDP-crushing liquidations from here.
Following out post, the BEA revised the entire data series.
Some other changes:
- Personal Consumption was 2.83% of the final GDP, down from 2.87%
- Fixed Investment was 0.71%, vs 0.37% before, a number that will plunge in Q1 as a result of the shale capex halt.
- Net trade subtracted even more from growth, with Net Exports less Imports amounting to -1.16%, down from -1.02%
- Government offset the decline modestly, subtracting -0.32% from growth, compared to -0.40% in the first revision.
Full breakdown below.
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so is the dress white & gold or black & blue?
Crap.....no one is buying the healthcare insurance.....everyone is just paying the fine.
What a bunch of fucking idiots getting it so wrong!
The economy has continued downhill, there has been no real economic solutions that are helping the economy.
Regulations will continue to send us lower
Current Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Regulation? Please, there are no regulations with respect to bankers and financiers. They can still access all the free money they want for zero interest.
As for everyone else, oh yes, I see what you did there...
High priced hookers and guys selling loosies on the street corner saved us.
This is the stupidest thing I have seen cross facebook for some time.
That being said -- I never thought I would say this -- but Greenspan hit the nail on the head yesterday on CNBC. I wonder if the Bernank will go soft in his old age.
On an aside -- FUCK YOU BERNANKE!
"On an aside -- FUCK YOU BERNANKE!"
In the mouth!
You're not allowed to crash the car and then start a driving school.
I don't care if he's right or wrong today. I don't even want to see his ugly, wrinked face again ever. He belongs in prison for what he did, not placed on TV as some wizened authoriity of all things economic, whom we need to genuflect and bow in front of.
He is utterly discredited. He should be shunned. Made to walk around with a scarlet letter M on his shirt for the rest of his life.
It's even worse with war criminals. Tony Blair making a fortune "consulting" various corrupt countries?
*shudder*
Or better yet a scarlett yarmulke.
It should be standard gear for all US Fed bank presidents since only dual citizen IsraeliJews can have that job.
Only reason Greedscam hit the nail on the head is because he's no longer with the feral "federal" (laughter) reserve (taxpayer's money). Number one rule of working for the fed, never tell the truth if it will reveal their ultimate lie (the ponzi nature of printed money).
The U.S. economy is now just like a corpse floating on the water, the currents giving the body motion. Don't expect any real facts from incompetent reporters, they are just good at lies of omission, such as leaving out who was the FBI informant of the three Brooklyn guys arrested yesterday for ISIS travel plans.
wait a sec ... isn't a plunging GDP bullish?
even old man Bogle says "the stawk market is undervalued."
2.2% Growth is Fucking GREEEAAAT!!!! (it's all BS anyway Bitches!) thank you obama!
We need moar money to spend on Tesla's
Weed is legal in DC now....can't buy it, can't sell it
You thought DC was fucked up before
Weeeeeee
That's a mainstream media like sensationalist headline. Should say revised to 2.2 from 2.6.
Tyler, what kind of BS aer you putting out here? I come to ZH to get the truth not some made up BS like from 5% to 2.2%
So, like the CPI yesterday...bullish?!
Sheesh!
DavidC
Wall Street seems ignore any negative news. William Dudley at the NY Fed ensuring the buying stays in play.
It's easy to lose your job by printing negative news, that's why nobody does it, and if they do, nobody prints it.
That's because every number that does not meet expectations convinces them there is pent up demand.
There isn't. There's just faulty expectations.
my local economy gpd is -2.5% still more closings of retail mall failing..but then I am in a backwater which cannot even qualify to be called fly over country.
this must be wrong, Mr Williams Czar of San Fran FED has said his economy is thru the roof there..somebody be lying..
All the fed members are still in the mode of trying to talk-up the economy. Looks like it's not working.
Stuff debt into every crevice of the economy. Only the few of the 1% will have anything when these PhDs are done.
Transfer of wealth continues.
Same here, disability is the only growth industry around here.
Was this "priced in"? LOL!!
I certainy hope everyone went long black markets and sharecropping because we are one more global incident away from "war bonds"... (i.e. MyIRA)
if you don't surrender all your wealth/income you will be labeled a "terrorist"...
I know, I know, "it could never happen here"...
We think, therefore we have already been labeled terrorists.
Dow 20,000
NasCrap 15,000.
Perfect time to smash gold and silver this morning...... anyone notice that?
yep...
totally blindsided.
take away the trillion budget shortfall and walla, negative growth.
all bullshit=bullish...
Does anyone not high on crack think that the US economy actually *grew* 2.2% any time over the past 25 years? Anyone? 60,000 factories shutdown all over the country, tens of millions of middle class people fired, and sent to work at McDonalds for minimum wage, and the economy GREW? Heh, yah.
Executive bonuses grew.
redd_green
It grew in all the right places that mattered.
The 'ILLUSION' that is FINANCIALIZATION at work....
I thought Obama fixed everything. Looks like he needs toget to fixing everything again.
Trying to figure out where all this personal consumption is coming from when the monetary velocity keeps degrading.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=12jg
hookers and blow..ass always
Read a great article on just that subject.
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1581-welcome-to-the-dark-s...
Allow me to summarize that article;
Back in 2009 the bankers and financiers of the world agreed to switch from what was left of "mark to market" accounting and go full on "mark to model" (i.e. mark to FANTASY). They had all their ivy league preists shill on and on and on about how this was appropriate. Any academic who did not agree was not given funding or tenure and is now driving an airport shuttle bus somewhere. The academics who supported mark to fantasy the most were given Nobel prizes... They bought all the politicians in the major western governments and changed all the laws to insure that what was once criminal behavior (like destroying 200+ years of contract law with respect to property titiles etc.) legal. It continues to this day...
Well, I, for one, see increasing velocity in the black markets and barter...
I'm currently in Europe.
"...plus 23% VAT (or IVA, etc.) if you require an invoice." [emphasis mine]
Oh this US congress is chomping at the bit to get a nice 25% VAT instituted in the USA for them to waste on foreign wars, and giveawas to the billionaires.
Somebody above mentioned: CEO's mostly got big bonuses and raises.
These numbers are all BS and completely irrelevant. As if anyone still believed them and didn't think they were manipulated and curve fitted.They have to keep the narrative going and the sheeple byuing.
These numbers only matter to algos and the naive.
2.2% higher over the previous year's negative quarter. Just how weak is that?
You're looing at Q1 2014, not Q4 2013. The last TWO bars on the right are both Q4 2014 (initial and revised).
I know. I did it too at first.
Eventually it gets so bad that even the BS spewed from these Fed PhDs won't work anymore.
Its just going to be slow slow and slower from here on out.....to many people in the FSA to ever grow again...they are an anchor on the economy....add in the new illegals...they will dumb down America as schools will have to spend all their time and money trying to educate them....and the rest of the kids will just be forgotten and passed on to the next grade....Go America
I know a French economist who will be happy to announce that in the next business information channel "face to face" episode :)
He predicted since two month ago that it will go from 5 to 2 !
He also predicted QE4 if market just goes down a little and there will be no interest raise.
(I suspect him to take regularly a look here on ZH).
The GDP has in it, such garbage as the rent you WOULD HAVE PAID yourself, IF you were renting the house that you are paying a mortgage on. Tell me the GDP is not complete garbage. GDP? Product? They close the factories, and tell us that because we're paying a mortgage, we're contrinuting all that money to "product". Ba lo ney.
Term is imputations. Eg. pull an imp out of a box, he wasnt there before but now he is.
I believe they pulled the positive GDP out of the part of their anatomy usually used for excreting waste.
Garbage in - garbage out.
Time to put some more oil into inventory.
If central banks can keep it going they'll own my underwear before they are done.
Be sure to leave some skidmarks when you go.
The Market Song:
Just thinkin' about tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow 'til there's none
When I'm stuck with a day that's grey and lonely
I just stick up my chin and grin and say, oh
The sun will come out tomorrow
So you gotta hang on
'til tomorrow, come what may!
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love ya, tomorrow
You're always a day away!
When I'm stuck with a day that's grey and lonely
I just stick up my chin and grin and say oh
The sun will come out tomorrow
So you got to hang on 'til tomorrow, come what may!
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love you tomorrow
You're always a day away
Tomorrow, tomorrow I love ya tomorrow
You're always a day away ...
""There will be costs......""
You put your [jacked up gdp] in,
You pull your [knocked down cpi] out;
You put your [jacked up gdp] in,
And you shake it all about.
You do the hokey pokey,
And you turn yourself around.
That's what it's all about!
Buzz...i thought you were going for some body count cop killer there for just a minute.
R
Relax everyone, didn't you hear...the shadow of the crisis is behind us.
Goldman Sachs forecasts (not sure if they used an Ouiji board team or a crystal ball) gold will be at $1000 at the end of 2016, so sell your hard assets and buy some stocks.
Has LaGarde given the numerology reading for this quarter yet?
No they were hoping Varoufakis might have grown a pair of balls they could divine the future with , but no luck.
Personally, I think that 2.2% gdp revision was being generous.
so I missed it - what's the final number for the year?
So without Obamacare in the GDP the GDP was actually NEGATIVE.
Correction: Lobbyistcare.
"Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown"
An extraordinarily misleading, poorly written headline. First language, is English your?
For me it's crystal clear :)
Economist math:
100/2=50
100/3=33.3
100/4=25
Let’s use 2 for GDP growth and 4 for housing growth.
Why not 6 and 10?
That’s Next month.
Scheessss. Trainees!
There are lies, damned lies, and government statistics!
Lie, revise, then revise the revision, NON-GAAP it away, make hedonic or seasonable adjustments, all fixed!
7 years of recovery and counting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, its pretty frustrating. On CNBC, just commenented how ALL estimates have been revised lower.
And the non GAAP thing REALLY pisses me off.
It just goes to show how much the system is rigged, and how hard it is to fight it. I just quit playing.
As did I. I'm Mr. Galt, nice to meet you Mr. Galt. The faster more people become Mr. Galt, the sooner the reset will come.
You know Celente is going to be at his finest on this one.
Was this after including all the non-essentials and illicit trades? Time to roll in the alien technology sector.