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Stocks Head For Best Month Since Oct 2011 As US Macro Crashes To 12-Month Lows
US Macro data has collapsed to 12-month lows with 38 data 'misses' and only 6 'beats. Earnings expectations have plunged most since Lehman (over 5% in the last 3 months) hovering at 10-month lows. So it makes perfect sense that, unless we see a late-day collapse today, the S&P 500 will post the best monthly performance since October 2011.
Macro...
Earnings...
February...
MISS
- Personal Spending
- Construction Spending
- ISM New York
- Factory Orders
- Ward's Domestic Vehicle Sales
- ADP Employment
- Challenger Job Cuts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Nonfarm Productivity
- Trade Balance
- Unemployment Rate
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- NFIB Small Business Optimism
- Wholesale Inventories
- Wholesale Sales
- IBD Economic Optimism
- Mortgage Apps
- Retail Sales
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- Business Inventories
- UMich Consumer Sentiment
- Empire Manufacturing
- NAHB Homebuilder Confidence
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits
- PPI
- Industrial Production
- Capacity Utilization
- Manufacturing Production
- Dallas Fed
- Chicago Fed NAI
- Existing Home Sales
- Consumer Confidence
- Richmond Fed
- Personal Consumption
- ISM Milwaukee
- Chicago PMI
- Pending Home Sales
BEAT
- Personal Income
- Markit Services PMI
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- JOLTS
- Case-Shiller Home Price
- Q4 GDP Revision (but notably lower)
* * *
But apart from that... everything is awesome.
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As a legal form of bribery and printing outlet the markets (software applications of the central banks) are doing what they are supposed to do: generate graphs that go up.
Yes, continuing to actually deliver real goods and services at these "prices" is another thing altogether...
It's always "next quarter" this sucker will go down... but it never materializes... we live in a sick, sick world.
US Macro? Who gives a shit about that. Show the map comparing S&P against the Fed balance sheet.
If your a software developer you write to specification, whether realistic or not but eventually things become obvious. The problem the bankers and government has is the raw data is out there and people are doing their own calculation and going WTF......
US Stock Indices will Crash 3 - 4% then the Fed Jawboning will commence and all will be right in the world.
Wash, rinse, repeat as required
CNBC is going to rant and rave like a child having a tantrum until NASDAQ hits 5000. They pulled the same crap in 1999, but are far more shameless now.
Did Joe Biden really just praise Dick Cheney?
http://tinyurl.com/o24htcu
Overlay the gold price in dollars and budget ceiling if you really want to see a disconnect...
Sorry. I, for one, shall not be delving into any barbarism today thank you.
Hey, it's all good until all those paper claims on real goods and services start seeking them out. Could be awhile still.
it is the policy of the us gubbermint and the fed that stock prices only go up
For some reason - these charts remind me of an old fun-park simulator - where I would build a roller coaster with tracks ending mid-air.
Ironically - alot like the markets - because even though the ride was opened and people could see the tracks end in open air - they still queued up for the ride.
(that was the fun part)
ok, Ill say it-- Polar vortex
We need to hold hands and go buy an SUV.
Like many of you, tried to short US-Macro, but couldn't find a symbol to trade.
(Have never seen stocks pull back on volume this low, so if a late-day month-end plunge emerges, you'd think the volume on the catalyst candle would have to exceed all that's gone before)
SnP 25xx into yearend.
Who cares about these useless charts anymore???
Things are going to be brutal when fundamentals turn positive... sell, Sell, SELL!!!!!
Fundamentals suck - buy, Buy, BUY!!!!
Bullish till the cabal gets their dream of WWIII
Way OT but.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/SNPJMk2fgJU
Project time!
Holy shit.
Ukraine has now formally asked for boots on the ground.
Germany will pass on this request as the German answer is as always "nein."
They want Silesia back and once the euro goes to zero they will get it. "This time the Jews will attack from the West."
While we're on the subject of territorial aggrandizement...
The head of the FRBNY Bill Dudley pretty much just told Chicago to drop dead.
In Chicago for what that is worth.
And of course the non-voting "hard money Texan" Fisher has also come out to exclaim the virtues of inflation and QE4evr too.
So all the Daffy Ducks are all lined up as normal...save for the fact that the dollar keeps soaring, the economy is tanking and prices are plunging everything is WONDERFUL.
Tyler fails to mention that the "beats" include an awesome sauce rack.
Jesus just make all stocks go up 2% every day into perpetuity. You're not fudging or massaging the numbers, you're just making them up entirely. North Korean propaganda is more credible - and way more entertaining.
Let's get ready for the end of day melt-up/SURGE in the S&P for no reason whatsoever!! Should start in about 20 minutes!
what a farce this house of cards is!
When the going gets weird, the weird get going.--Hunter S. Thompson
The weird turn pro.
“When the going gets weird, the weird turn professional.”
? Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72
Thanks, I stand corrected.
The entire system is 100% corrupt. It is eating itself, right in front of our eyes. Still the majority have no clue and continue with blinders on.
These are all war trades.
Massive constraints on both supply and demand. In effect "rationing."
The Government "provides" but in fact gives nothing.
If you're a mayor of a bif City or a State you're pretty much a goner here.
North Dakota and Texas do have free cash flow.
That's about it.
Everything else is in Wall Street. They'll probably issue the ration cards if we're at war come Monday.
The USA will not sit out a Russo/Turkish war.
Germany will, Poland will, Lithuania will...the USA will not.
France is calling for regime change in Syria. You could get a Civil War in France. They just had drones flying over Paris. Those were not French drones.
Both the English and the French are now supporting Serbia...that means they are opposed to both Russia and Turkey. Great Britain is in fact moving boots on the ground towards Russia.
There is no political will for anything in Europe which historically leads to war.
I also think there is an actual probability that Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States...but we'll see.
Certainly isn't hard to run against Washington. Better still he's a media personage but not in fact a media person.
He is beholden to no interest should he run and win.
He could simply ask "what's in it for America?" and get fifty million votes right there.
assigning an actual probability that Donald Trump will be the next POTUS is a sure sign or either sarcasm or bogarting the stogie...
A few intelligent beings are calling for a regime change in the USSA---and not a change from blue to red which is no change at all...as for Trump, he is merely a status quo stooge. No change there, either. Sorry.
I think we need to assume there is a bug in the Algo routine which mines headlines. The market should be down as you outlined but it is up. Some programmer somewhere is searching the code to correct it no doubt. Who knows how long it will take. But thats the risk in today's markets.
Macro smacro, we're on crack baby, yeah baby! If this doesn't speak volumes, then I don't know what does. This Fed actually stated this today - WTF???:
Talking Forex: 'Fed's Mester: If rates are too low for too sustained period of time, consumer confidence may declien and cause a deterioration in the economy.'
I've never been more bullish. It's a great time to be an American investor! HAHA
Stop using Lehman as your benchmark. Problem solved.
Could the market and AAPL actually have a down day? I thought every living thing was going to buy an iWatch.
But the economy is the stock market - Right????
Of course, everyone knows that.