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Here Is The Reason Why Stocks Just Had Their Best Month Since October 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite ending the month with a whimper, after Fed vice-chairman's hawkish words spooked the market on Friday afternoon, February was the best month for equities in over three years - since October of 2011 - driven by a 7% Nasdaq surge on the back of a gigantic move higher in Apple. And yet, as we have shown time and again, none of this reflects the "decoupling" US underlying economy, which if anything has rapidly recoupled with the rest of the world following 38 data "misses" and only 6 "beats"- the worst "surprise" index in 12 months...

... a world which as Goldman recently showed is now in outright contraction for the first time since 2012.

It also certainly wasn't earnings: February was the first month in which we showed that as a result of plunging revenue and EPS guidance and deteriorating sales and profitability, 2015 will be the first year since Lehman when there will be a full year decline in year-over-year sales.

So if not the economy or fundamentals, and if not the Fed, which as we know is still on sabbatical after its massive QE1-2-Twist-3 $3 trillion liquidity injection, just what has pushed stocks up to jawdropping all time highs?

Here, courtesy of Deutsche Bank, is the answer:

In case it is unclear just what the chart above shows, here is DB's explanation: "buyback announcements have surged with February ($98bn) posting the  largest monthly tally on record. The pace of actual buybacks tends to closely follow that of announcements."

And there you have it: the highest number of monthly buyback announcements in history, which for a market that may be broken but can still discount what companies will do (now that they have committed to buybacks) is merely frontrunning the most cost-insensitive buyer in the world: corporate management teams themselves.

It should thus come as no surprise why the S&P500 soared to record highs at a time when US economic data tumbled at the fastest pace in years. It should also explain the relentless buying of AAPL stock (among others), which pushed the Nasdaq to just why of 5000: recall that it was less than 3 weeks ago that AAPL announced it would proceed with merely its latest debt-funded share buyback.

It also explains why, in the absence of the Fed, stocks continue to rise as if QE was still taking place: simply said, bondholders - starved for any yield in an increasingly NIRP world - have taken the place of the Federal Reserve, and are willing to throw any money at companies who promise even the tiniest of returns over Treasuries, oblivious if all the proceeds will be used immediately to buyback stock, thus pushing equity prices even higher, but benefiting not only shareholders but management teams who equity-linked compensation has likewise never been higher.

To be sure, this theater of financial engineering - because stocks are not going up on any resemblance of fundamental reasons but simply due to expanding balance sheet leverage - will continue only until it can no longer continue.

What do we mean by that? Two things:

First, we have previously shown the case studies of Herbalife...

 

And IBM...

 

... both of which soared as long as they could lever up, and issue debt which it would promptly be used to repurchase stock which in an already massively illiquid market, meant soaring stock prices. However, once net debt got prohibitively large and creditors would no longer lend, the company had no choice but to halt the buybacks:

HLF:

and IBM:

 

We know what has happened to both companies' stock prices since.

The second issue is even more troubling. Recall also from one month ago that according to Goldman's calculations, the biggest source of net inflows, i.e., buyer of stocks, in 2015, will be companies themsleves. Aka: lots and lots of buybacks.... but apparently not enough.

According to Goldman, in 2015 buybacks will amount to a near record $450 billion, making corporations by far the biggest source of equity buying in the US stock market (at least until the Fed returns with QE4). In fact, corporations are now using the generous funds of creditors to offset a little over $400 billion in equity withdrawals (i.e., sales) by both households and pensions, which is also understandable: with Millennials now a lost generations courtesy of an economy that just refuses to recover (aside for the S&P500 of course), the retiring baby boomers who are liquidating ever greater amount of stocks as they retire in droves, are not being offset by a new generation of stock inflows.

For now, corporate buybacks are offsetting this record demand by an ever-older population to cash out of the market and do whatever retirees do in this day and age.

But once the debt levels of corporations, already at record high levels...

 

... starts becoming a concern to even the most desperate of fixed income managers of "other people's money", and even "Investment Grade" companies rapidly approach Herbalife's leverage levels - now that median EBITDA levels are the lowest relative to total market enterprise value in history - just who will step into a market that has already soaked up every last source of possible stock buying, and become the buyer of last, and only, resort?

Answer.

 

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Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:06 | 5840236 joego1
joego1's picture

Janet looks like shes working on a big steamer.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:22 | 5840271 AssFire
AssFire's picture

No doubt, she's dropping the Cosby kids by the pool.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:54 | 5840350 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

I thought they were not good swimmers?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:39 | 5840632 max2205
max2205's picture

She has chicklets for teeth!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:19 | 5840782 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

that one eye needs a circumcision...

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:49 | 5840855 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

She has kids?  Who would do her?  

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 23:11 | 5841441 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Captain Kangaroo... I swear.  Bob Keeshan didn't die, he got a sex change and went into economics. 

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 09:55 | 5842187 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

>100

<100

^^^^ # of babies eaten by Jellen in her rise to the top of the fed.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:32 | 5840437 StupidEarthlings
StupidEarthlings's picture

I thought it was droppin the Cosby kids AT the pool?..

Eh...close enough i guess.

Kinda like shittin near the toilet..steada in it.

But im just an observer. 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:51 | 5840482 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

Think ZH will have anything positive to post about the death of this Yid?

http://mainenewsonline.com/content/15023063-former-aig-ceo-robert-benmos...

He was a Mensch.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:25 | 5840582 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Hope the fucker suffered long and hard during chemo for nothing.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:28 | 5840806 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

If you lived 100 lives you'd never accomplish 1/10 of what benmoshe did.  Let that sink in asshole.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:52 | 5840867 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

So...enlighten us, the article highlighted his acceptance of taxpayer bailout money. What has you so upbeat?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 20:57 | 5841088 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You're right. I haven't even stolen from a single American, much less hundreds of millions of them.

Now stop sucking a corpse's dick, asshole.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:32 | 5840439 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

It s much cheaper to actually buyback the stocks when they go down, so buyback announcments might actually mean that they are hoping for the market crash to buy shit back :)

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:04 | 5840517 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No..  Moar like record buy back announcements are being used to sucker in all the muppets as bag holders before the market implodes.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:53 | 5840873 Bro of the Sorr...
Bro of the Sorrowful Figure's picture

not sure there are too many muppets left to sucker. i think at this point these record this and that headlines are mainly used to keep the sheep in a constant state of CD. the itching reality that they are debt slaves and that the economy is a giant hoax needs to be constantly confronted by a spewing shit stream of positive economic data.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:54 | 5840878 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

That certainly was the case for what appears to be a spike in buybacks before the September 2008 plunge...

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:44 | 5842190 Griffin
Griffin's picture

I think that this adventure will end with a boom, and i dont mean that in a positive way.

 

Its not like this scam is a work of art, cut out of a solid block of granite.

https://c2.staticflickr.com/2/1119/5105423099_e4a4649f34_z.jpg

Its is poorly designed and fragile like glass.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIH0b0ndjoE

It could all go up in smoke lightning fast.

 

 

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 14:14 | 5842967 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

In this case, the muppets are the shareholders, whose companies are being loaded up with debt, in order to juice the share price, so that management can extract undeserved bonuses.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:51 | 5840865 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Except when money is cheap and you have no where else to use it...then who gives a fuck what something costs...buy it while you can.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 01:22 | 5841707 daveO
daveO's picture

Two words. Executive compensation.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 20:29 | 5840479 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

if you think the fed or other central banks are not still in the market, I have a bridge to sell you

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 04:59 | 5841886 Percy Crump
Percy Crump's picture

Do you have any proof that the fed or any central bank is buying anything in the market??  What are they buying?  Link please.  Thanks.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:55 | 5842506 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

It doesnt really matter if the central banks are buying anything.  They are creating an environment with NIRP and ZIRP for institutions to uber leverage on the cheap to buy risky assets.  If the Fed bought MBS from the banks and suppose to lend that money to people and nobody is borrowing, then where is the money going?  Its like the central banks are ordering the banks to whack  someone.  The central banks are calling for the hit and providing the gun and ammo.

Havent you noticed that devaluation of the yen generally leads to S&P levitation?   You dont have to follow zerohedge to know this.  Have you heard of the carry trade?  What are people buying when bOrrowing from the Japanese on the cheap?  Carry trades are made possible by central bank manipulation.

Also the CME Group has a discount rate for central banks to purchase futures contracts.  Theoritically, central banks (other than the Fed) can buy index futures.  

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1409584800.php

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 04:28 | 5844914 Percy Crump
Percy Crump's picture

 "If" the Fed bought MBS...

 "Theoretically", central banks (other than the Fed) can buy index futures...  

================

"If"

"Theoretically"

 

What you say is pure speculation....you have NO PROOF that the fed or central bank is buying anything.

Yes, I believe most of the government system is corrupt; (especially with the Obama admin.) but I can't prove much to amount to anything......and neither can anyone else. 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:06 | 5840237 assistedliving
assistedliving's picture

what?  let my employee stock options expire worthless?  heck, if you cant "earn" it; buy it

 

God Bless Amurika

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:08 | 5840240 Jacksons Ghost
Jacksons Ghost's picture

Giant Circle Jerk? And we are suppose to be Bullish about this?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:56 | 5840497 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Think of it as a giant game of musical chairs where the music never stops but they keep taking chairs away.  It is totally sustainable, for a while.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 01:27 | 5841711 daveO
daveO's picture

On TeeVee, in the near future. "In economic news, today, the S&P 1 reached 1,000,000 for the first time. CEO Yellin said more buybacks are justified."

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:33 | 5840611 thinkmoretalkless
thinkmoretalkless's picture

Getting down to the last participant blowing their wad...

Get the Viagra!!!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:09 | 5840246 Salzburg1756
Salzburg1756's picture

Can't be. It's not in my morning paper.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:12 | 5840256 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Mr. Yellen looks happy and that means Obama's war plans must be on track.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:26 | 5840284 Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

I could not understand what this old man was saying and could only think of PaMELLa and her big breasts.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:36 | 5840622 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Not enough time. Obama leaves office on a high note (its his legacy you know), and dumps the war on his successor.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:55 | 5840885 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Also the stock market crash will be dumped on his successor.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 05:27 | 5841918 Percy Crump
Percy Crump's picture

There will be a huge stock market crash while obama is still acting as president.

And you are also correct.  His majesty Obama, will leave a shitty economy to the next president.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:50 | 5840856 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

Who is that disgusting dude in the pic at the bottom? He looks like he is literally taking a dump in the bed. What a gargoyle!

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 01:30 | 5841713 daveO
daveO's picture

Your debt massa', you stupid slave. Be nice now, and you might git to eat at the house on Sundee.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:15 | 5840263 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Good lord, Jack Yellen is hard on the eyes! Like looking at Beelzebub's asshole!

Roast in hell Jack!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:33 | 5840304 chunga
chunga's picture

She does have a beak!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:13 | 5840765 optimator
optimator's picture

It would take a big bob job, and she'd still look J.......

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:22 | 5840273 honkadoo
honkadoo's picture

This is the type of meat that makes ZH enjoyable again.  No, the comments and commenters still reek of shit, but this is what is happening.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:54 | 5840349 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yes, you do.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 13:05 | 5842731 disgruntled hou...
disgruntled housewife's picture

honkadoo- Can you elaborate on your slam of zero hedge commenters? I will agree that comments like "bring it on bitchez" are useless but if you skip those there are some people who are trying to make some valid observations or ask intriquing questions.

If you come from finance and have an extensive background of knowledge do share. I come here to learn more about the system of finance. It is far less intimidating than slogging through heavily jargoned textbooks.

I do not understand your need to include the slam.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:29 | 5840292 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Great article Tyler.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:42 | 5840323 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Totally solid, like an oldskool Tyler wrote it. Good Tyler material was what made this place.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:10 | 5840394 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Everyone here should be plastering this article all over the net (I am). It's the only way to wake people the fuck up.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 10:34 | 5842290 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Tyler shows up on RCP pretty regularly. RCP is a top notch mainstream aggregator.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:31 | 5840433 Bilderberg Member
Bilderberg Member's picture

But it still took St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard to start talking up extending QE3 last October to get the market to reverse its freefall. So you basically have BOTH companies and the Fed juicing stocks with debt issuance.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:56 | 5840498 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

but the most important part of that was, #1 - if there is any drop in equities, we will print more, as much as needed.  so for corporations borrowing at almost zero to buy back stocks, no risk.  #2 - there will be an interest rate hike soon, (but it will be a LOOONNGGGG time from now, and only 25 bps at most (we are only saying this to convince the sheep that the economy is great, and they should borrow at 5% and not save and consume more and more crap that they can't afford with money they will never pay back)) - so continue to borrow (for the corporations) like crazy and buy back more of your own stock.

 

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 01:34 | 5841716 daveO
daveO's picture

.25? More like .10, at most. The MSM will jump all over it with Happy Days are Here Again! They can the same amount of propaganda effect from a .01 increase. 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:58 | 5840502 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Don't forget BoJ and, coming soon, ECB.  Credit/debt three card monty anyone?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:34 | 5840300 valley chick
valley chick's picture

How long can this circle jerk buyback keep going till the illusion of prosperity is lost?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:32 | 5840442 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

well its been 7 years on the trot.... but it will happen as soon as the REPs shut down illegal immigration, and bring charges against te IRS criminals. At that point "they" will need a real disturbance in the force to take everybody's mind off of the guilty.

If that doesn't provide the necessary smokescreen... there always War to pursue.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:59 | 5840504 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Reps?  What is this rep thing of which you speak?  I've seen rinos and donkeys but no reps.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 22:44 | 5841383 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

I read about Republicans once... Wasn't President Eisenhower the last of their creed?

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 05:48 | 5841932 Percy Crump
Percy Crump's picture

AhhhHaaaHaHaaaaaHa!!!

Yea...that's about it.  The republicans have only been playing badminton (picture the republican men with skirts on) with the democraps for the last 10 years at least!  Pitiful.

 

BTW - - - I am a Republican!!!!!!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:50 | 5845610 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

say what you will about the high tax rates of the 50's, but income inequality wasn't an issue and .gov spending/borrowing was under relative control. As I always argue Libertopia only exists in An Rand's demented mind. If .gov is to exist at all it must reign in the money power or its corruption is inevitable...

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 20:54 | 5841074 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The buybacks will continue until interest rates hit 1% at which point a quarter of the S&P500 companies will file for bankruptcy.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:39 | 5840316 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Is it possible for Herbalife to buy their own viagra alternates and stack them on deserted airports?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:46 | 5840335 badger10
badger10's picture

AUDIT THE FED!;9

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 16:59 | 5840358 nakki
nakki's picture

So does anybody think that Banks are net sellers on the way up, will pull the rug and when these companies, after buying back at the top will have to issue new shares on the bottom? Banks/FED step in buying shares, QE4 happens, wash, rinse, repeat. That's my take. Money for nothing and ur stocks for free.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:01 | 5840508 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Big bank sitting happily doing what big banks do.

Big corp comes in to ask for a loan for buybacks.

Big bank buys up big corp stock while "processing" the loan.

Big bank grants the loan.

Big corp starts buying back stock.

Big bank starts selling stock to big corp and collecting payments on the loan.

Is good work if it can be gotten.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:31 | 5840580 r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

Then Big Banks wait for rev to decline (and maybe increase interest rates to accelerate that), and gain control of the companies once they are unable to make the loan payments. Same as it always was. The loans are way for those playing a long game (Banks) to exploit those playing a short game (corporate execs and, increasingly, shareholders).

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:32 | 5840610 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

The CEO is selling on the way up, because he gets free stock. The banks loan the cash. When the company becomes insolvent, the bank becomes the sole owner, and then unloads it to the public during the next boom. And the cycle repeats.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:00 | 5840366 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Don't forget Dudley and Fischer either.

 

"The hard money guys" who just bowed down to their masters yet again.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:15 | 5840403 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The William Dudley is one of the most dangerous men on the planet.

He is an asshole who deserves to be burnt at the stake.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:02 | 5840512 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Oh c'mon now.  Assholes aren't that bad.  Some people even like them.  That's a personal choice and beauty is in the brown eye of the...

Bankers tho, yeah.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:58 | 5840708 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

NOPE, BOP was correct. Dudley should be burned at the stake!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:19 | 5840412 Monty Burns
Monty Burns's picture

I thought the explanation for the optimism was the impending outbreak of World War III.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:39 | 5840455 Element
Element's picture

We're up to WW4 now, WWIII occurred last Thursday, it took out a medium sized Fondu banquet and an aquarium full of Asiatic Carp. Other than that the damage and casualties were significantly less than anticipated.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 21:36 | 5841198 weburke
weburke's picture

first world war was during the french and indian war actually. ask a historian

 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:25 | 5840425 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

Here's how health insurer United saves money to finance stock buy backs, or I should say it certainly appears that way...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/02/united-healthcare-to-now-require-prior.html

And they can hold off providing diabetes glucose monitors, unlike the rest of the big insurers...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/02/united-healthcare-denies-diabetes-pumps.html

All the major insurers are listed on the S and P 500 so watch for more of this type of action I say. 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 21:32 | 5841184 weburke
weburke's picture

agree, I think they will take themselves private as much as they can, using low interest loans, then repay and stockholders will do good in the endless facism eternity heaven. 

Other healthcare companies and other industry companies are going to be there long term, and they will be good to invest in

 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:29 | 5840432 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

If I liked myself at $55/share, I'll go blind at $75

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:59 | 5840715 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Your comment regarding smashing weak trades was spot ON my friend.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:07 | 5840739 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

As were yours about JPY.   But, make enough comments in these odd markets, wait a few months, and they're bound to come true . . . just before reversing like a sonofabitch.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:20 | 5840774 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Un_ Spoken truthisms....

 I'd be short $usd on the Sunday open.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:25 | 5840801 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Have a feeling everyone will be short everything equities on Monday which, given algos have a dry sense of humor, could give us the Last Blast, or the Break-out blast.   Like the Fast Money mavens, I've learned to hedge my comments (but not my trading posns).

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:38 | 5840813 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

,  I'm short usd

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:31 | 5840434 Trahald
Trahald's picture

Need a bit of blood in the water before Janet slips in the fix  Better the sheep are asking to be fucked; then is informed consent.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:31 | 5840435 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

This is why the world will end on an uptick.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:32 | 5840440 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

It's a full blown ponzi. Wrapped in fraud. 

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:33 | 5840444 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

There's an entire industry full of people who still believe that we have, or should have, private markets. We don't, private debt and financing has now migrated to public and quasi-public balance sheets. The key difference is that while private debtors (individual and corporate) can in fact become uncreditworthy and need to do things like earn revenues and profits and stay "solvent", these public entities do not. These quasi-public entities also have a key advantage in that they show up to the table with an unlimited supply of chips to play with. The remaining private entities can only try to join this game by exchanging claims on their assets in return for their own access to these free chips, no need any more for arcane notions like employees and products and market share and profits. The entity issuing the chips is the same entity that exchanges those chips for ownership stakes in discounted future cash flows of these enterprises, but these days that is just for optics. In fact they are simply opening a spigot into the flow of free chips they themselves issue, and the formerly privately-financed entity is now just a pass-through. Since many of these still retain a brand impression of prior success in the productive deployment and growth of private capital, in the short run this flow continues. Investors get the impression they own a private enterprise with an entrepreneurial incentive to grow capital but in fact they have simply purchased an access point to the free supply of chips. 

No one can doubt the value of the unlimited chips because there is no remaining basis for comparison, with all economic blocs now in the "unlimited chips" business. There used to be "money good" collateral (shiny stuff) but they have financialized the trade and control the price of this as denominated in their free chips so it's pointless.

By it's nature this new system will continue to concentrate the supply of chips upwards until there is one guy remaining at the top with all of the chips. This is the only remaining fly in the ointment, and they are ramping repressive measures on the "non-chip owning" population to protect that one guy for a while longer. In reality it's probably a couple of thousand guys, when the crisis began there were 800 billionaires in the US and now there are 1600 so the process is working quite effectively.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:17 | 5842415 spinone
spinone's picture

Unfortunately what you are describing is a false economy that doesnt produce anything of value but fake accounting wealth for the 1%.  The state will enforce the 1%'s claims on real goods with this false accounting wealth, while in reality the country gets poorer and poorer.  A facist plutocracy.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:54 | 5840460 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This is a great article. Well done Tyler's' That '13-14 chart is priceless.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:48 | 5840476 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Smokin' cigarettes and watchin' Captain Kangaroo
Now don't tell me
I've nothin' to do

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8nRL2bPCU

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:53 | 5840481 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

lol ,I just got the visual.

 I'm the guy you hire to teach NSA inductees.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 17:52 | 5840492 barry2001
barry2001's picture

If you are into drones check out this site  http://pickyourdrone.com/

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:02 | 5840509 yogibear
yogibear's picture

When all else fails Barry and Victoria Nuke-land take us to war.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:16 | 5840558 rejected
rejected's picture

Here's a nice little story to all the boys and girls that think someone will win the next war.

http://thebulletin.org/what-would-happen-if-800-kiloton-nuclear-warhead-...

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:27 | 5840590 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Can't think of a better target than Manhattan except perhaps London or DC.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:34 | 5840823 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

all 3 with a MIRVed ICBM

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 21:36 | 5841196 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

Dimona...

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:11 | 5840539 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Every Amerikan company ensuring its insolvency WHEN the market melts down.  Brilliant.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:28 | 5840596 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

That just guarantees that they all get bailed out by the Government or the Fed, and the CEOs walk away with a very big pile of loot. Remember, when the company is buying back stock, the insiders are selling theirs. That is how they make the big money.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:14 | 5840553 Herdee
Herdee's picture

It's rigged by banks.eom

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:25 | 5840583 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I know one thing. If Janet Yellen becomes the stock buyer of last resort, plan on selling her your stock at the top.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:27 | 5840588 Surveyor4Pres
Surveyor4Pres's picture

Putting Yellen's face right above the Ratings system, makes it difficult to vote Awesome (5 of 5).

But I closed my eyes and voted 5 anyway, for the exceptional article.

Funny, in a post yesterday, I asked just the very question of how the markets keep going up, even though FED QE ended a while ago.

Thanks, Tyler, for the answer!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 20:31 | 5841024 mijev
mijev's picture

To paraphrase a really old joke, what's the difference between Janet Yellen and a baseball? If your life depended on it and you really, really had to, you could probably eat a baseball.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 05:57 | 5841939 Percy Crump
Percy Crump's picture

Yea, but there's lots of Lesbi's out there that whould give it a shot!!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:35 | 5840617 MDP
MDP's picture

Wasn't there an article on here not so long ago about some 80 percent of QE monies still sitting in the bank(s)? Plenty left to be lent to corporations for future buybacks, correct? Yes no maybe so?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 18:37 | 5840623 JoWazzoo
JoWazzoo's picture

Great efffing article Tylers.  One of the best ever.

 

Anyone notice some heavy wave of selling at the close on Friday?

 

SPY for example sold > 100 million shares at the low of the day on 108 million shares for the day.  Got my hope up after purchasing some April puts.  Similar happened to the Russell 2000 ETF.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:11 | 5840752 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Priceless,

 ... starts becoming a concern to even the most desperate of fixed income managers of "other people's money", and even "Investment Grade" companies rapidly approach Herbalife's leverage levels - now that median EBITDA levels are the lowest relative to total market enterprise value in history - just who will step into a market that has already soaked up every last source of possible stock buying, and become the buyer of last, and only, resort?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:14 | 5840766 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

We need those stock buy backs to insure that the options handed out to management and directors have some real value.

 

You have to wonder if there just might be a correlation between a company's buy backs and the quantity of options in the hands of management and directors....them foxes are guarding the shareholder's hen house.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 19:27 | 5840804 Majic
Majic's picture

"What would have been so terrible if I had a small fortune"...Fiddler on the roof.

 

This easy money for the rich is hard for me to watch because I'm too small to take part in it.  It burns my biscuits when someone occasionally posts to ZeroHedgers "Quit whining, you fools who read doom porn"...I realize some people are getting filthy rich from this money printing, but good gravy, when can we finally have the de-leveraging that in the long run will help the blue collar guy?

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 20:03 | 5840916 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It all adds up to BTFD bitchez.

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 22:35 | 5841362 Whitness
Whitness's picture

I cant believe it has gone this far. They're going to destroy this country...more!

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 23:00 | 5841412 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Wait a minute... $450 billion is only a 16% increase from 2012 and only an 8% increase from last year. Are we to believe that an 8% or only $35 billion increase in buybacks from last year means stocks should double again? Give me a break. $35 billion is chicken feed over a 12 month period. $3 billion a month. Give me a fucking break. $3 billion is a rounding error of market volume in a month. No. Buybacks do not explain another market ride to the sky this year. Besides, this isn't news. Companies have been broadcasting for a long time they were going to continue their massive insider stock buybacks this year.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 00:45 | 5841667 DarthVaderMentor
DarthVaderMentor's picture

They only need to do the stock re-purchase slight of hand tricks in a few companies to alter the DOW and the other indexes. The rest of the market will then follow as sheep and rise as the retail investors are conned with the criminal help from the banksters and folks like Buffet. That may explain why Warren is "diversifying" out of the US.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 00:56 | 5841686 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

I don't think the $3 billion a month is going to just a few stocks. There is a long laundry list of companies in the SP500 buying their stock back. Lots of those executives all wanting their bigger bonuses and don't want to miss out. Anyway look at IBM's example. This will only be able to be continued for a finite amount of time before things start to roll over. When? Who knows. However, I would say based on the consistantly reducing trajectory of the market over the past few years, we are much closer to a top than the middle of a bull run. Bottom line though is that the percentage increase of buybacks this year isn't that great.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:28 | 5842444 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

I didn't want this to come across the wrong way. This is a very good article and I'm sure it explains most of the  market performance outlier in February. However, not only being a little bit disgruntled with the continuing manipultation of the markets, I really don't see how this can continue on for years into the future before a major reversion to reality, similar to the IBM situation, which is probably still overvalued when all is said and done. Anyway, very good article, just a little pissed off at all the manipulation going on. I think the Fed has come to believe that our economy can't survive without the bubbles they support, even at the same time proclaiming there to be a bubble (code word for markets are expensive). We'll see how long it lasts. Just had to rant a minute...

Sat, 02/28/2015 - 23:24 | 5841471 blindman
blindman's picture

reports, 10,000 pages, very complex.
and written in the dialect of financial
legalese. impenetrable at the practical
realm by structure and design.
.
this is commonly known to be "udder and utter bullshit".
.
a blunt and bludgeoning instrument of murder.
.
anyway ...
Elizabeth Warren Destroys Janet Yellen Over JPMorgan's 'Living Will'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYtSMLgaW6U
.
plan to break bad is impenetrable by design and
here described. it is a story of a power grab, naked.
private, public, call it what you like,
there it is.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 00:48 | 5841674 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

You're right thanks for the link.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNUM (fewer banks now)

Bigger TBTF Banks means fewer banks. They don't want to give up branches, subsidiaries, or operations.

It is like Highlander.

I like what Elizabeth Warren is doing here.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 01:06 | 5841693 blindman
blindman's picture

Mark Knopfler - Going Home
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfDEwyl4uCM
.
some day i must
see that
.
movie

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 18:19 | 5843724 acetinker
acetinker's picture

You never.

know.

The crux of the biscuit.

May be that.

When the chips are down.

Sometimes you learn.

You are fucked!

Then.

And only then.

Can you begin to heal.

Godspeed, blindman!

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 00:39 | 5841659 DarthVaderMentor
DarthVaderMentor's picture

Well done, Tyler. Good investigative financial journalism, well thought out. I think you have something here that needs to be expanded. Who will be the anticipated bag holder when the share re-purchasing starts slowing down is a key element of the story. You could change history if you convince enough retail investors that owning equities is now very dangerous.  

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:01 | 5842365 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Amen.  That sums it up. 

 

<<You could change history if you convince enough retail investors that owning equities is now very dangerous.  >>

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 02:36 | 5841781 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Nice article. We can look forward to a unique bubble collapse in the markets when it happens: Sudden insolvency of corporations that have taken part in buybacks and the creditors which funded them.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 06:21 | 5841956 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

If the Fed wanted equities much higher, why would Yeller be stating that markets are historically expensive now? Just shut up and keep pumping. I get the feeling she meant what she said. So, if the Fed is "in control" and the markets keep ripping higher, has the Fed really lost control already? I think the Fed would be happy to keep the market levitated in the SP500 2000 range. Their theory is that the move up from the previous 1500 all time highs (twice) is free money injected into the "economy". Another reason you get the Fed-heads flapping their QE jaws in the SP500 1800 range and then Yeller talking about expensive markets in the 2100 range. Who knows, but I think it's Yeller's intent to use interest rate increases if necessary to keep the market from continuting to levitate out of the neutral zone.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 06:40 | 5841963 CHX
CHX's picture

Cheap credit used for buy backs so insiders can unload at a FATH without causing a crash. What's difficult to understand about this? It might go on for a while still but unless the eCONomy has reached escape velocity - which it HAS NOT - this thing is ultimately heading lower, much lower. 

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 07:17 | 5841985 malissarood
malissarood's picture

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Sun, 03/01/2015 - 09:48 | 5842178 silverer
silverer's picture

What's the matter?  Don't you trust Janet Yellen?

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 07:17 | 5841987 malissarood
malissarood's picture

Hello everybody, i am Malissa, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely husband, I promise to share this because of God favor in my life, 2 months ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 2,000USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to Mr. David Wilson, she said she was given 52,000.00USD by Mr. David Wilson who is the C.E.O of (CREDIT PREMIER INTL), so I decided to contact them using the below email: {credit.permier001@gmail.com} ... And to my greatest surprise i got my loan of 96,000.00USD... So if you are really in need of a loan, i would advise you to contact Mr. David Wilson because he is a Man of his worlds.. Thanks

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 09:47 | 5842177 silverer
silverer's picture

As I said, you'll be hearing from Janet Yellen.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 07:19 | 5841991 malissarood
malissarood's picture

Hello everybody, i am Malissa, God has bless me with two kids and a lovely husband, I promise to share this because of God favor in my life, 2 months ago I was in desperate need of money so I thought of having a loan then I ran into wrong hands who claimed to be loan lender not knowing he was a scam. he collected 2,000USD from me and refuse to email me since then I was confuse, but God came to my rescue, one faithful day I went to church after the service I share idea with a friend and she introduce me to Mr. David Wilson, she said she was given 52,000.00USD by Mr. David Wilson who is the C.E.O of (CREDIT PREMIER INTL), so I decided to contact them using the below email: {credit.permier001@gmail.com} ... And to my greatest surprise i got my loan of 96,000.00USD... So if you are really in need of a loan, i would advise you to contact Mr. David Wilson because he is a Man of his worlds.. Thanks

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 09:51 | 5842174 silverer
silverer's picture

Thank goodness you posted this.  I have forwarded this to Janet Yellen.  She will be in touch shortly.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 09:45 | 5842169 silverer
silverer's picture

Which goes to prove the government and many American corporations are willing to throw everyone's kids under the bus.  Of course, their own will be well taken care of.  And by the time Chelsea becomes president, we won't even have to bother with elections.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 10:11 | 5842223 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

So basically the Fed is behind curtain #1 telling you QE, twist, suck my dick, or whatever is done. A story told by pathological liars with the economic future (read ability to keep TPTB in power) at risk. To believe that nonsensical propaganda is just crazy. The Fed is the market, all of them, now. Long live capitalism.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 10:14 | 5842231 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Many of us PMers thought we would be the 1% already .... if it ever happens, we will not be protected .... like these "Buy Backers" .... we will be hunted down like illegal ammo !

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 10:17 | 5842237 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Je suis Ukranian hoarder .... in the Stalin Era !

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 10:29 | 5842276 tempo
tempo's picture

big oil is a perfect example of corporate liquidation w ATH stock prices. None of the majors are replacing reserves and are cutting capital expenditures and using debt capacity to buy back stocks and maintain dividends. At some point, max leverage will be reached and so will the buybacks. The major oil company stock prices will look like IBM and start a long term decline. Buffett liquidated this year while XOM increased buybacks, effectively buying him out. Yes, the .01% have an advantage. 2015 may be about distribution as the 1% liquidate w the major buyers being the spx 500 companies. Great posting.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 11:29 | 5842445 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Buybacks on the way up.  Secondaries at the bottom.  All that garbage they are buying now is going right back onto the market at the bottom.  Just like the bankers all did in 2009.  These buybacks indicate nothing but mindless bubble stock market mechanics.  They are simply consuming company resources chasing the fleeting phantasm of stock prices.  There is no reality here.  Bubble mechanics are what they are.  I am not complaining.  I am getting interested in shorting the living piss out of this market AFTER it drops 30 percent in a day.  There will plenty of meat on this bone even then.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 12:40 | 5842658 unklemunky
unklemunky's picture

When bad money enters the system, good money leaves it. The bankers have created a climate where there is no trust left in the marketplace and people with real money are buying real assets. When it gets close to the end of their game, it will be the bankers vying for the last few chairs when the music stops. Meanwhile, the real market will have found stability and security in making real things wth real value and will have left the ponzie scheme. It has always been our nature to value the tangible, i.e. Tradeable skills. Real knowledge that actually takes nothing and turns it into something. The people who have been making a living stealing from other people will ultimately be the ones hit hardest as they offer nothing of any tangible value. The real market, human nature and rational thinking, will always prevail. The suckers will be wiped out along with those doing the sucking as they are made for each other. Both seeking quick easy profits for nothing. Learn a skill that allows you to make an honest living where you treat people hinestly and fairly and you will live a wonderful and happy life. Create something that can be sold at a fair value and you will always have food in your belly, a roof over your family's head and a peace of mind that you are your own man and living free and in peace. Basic economics teaches you that you cannot reap rediculous profits for long, as the market will catch up with you and competition will realign the price. If you are rigging the system as the bankers are now, sooner or later, their scheme creates a currency of no value and it gets replaced by real value. Free markets always exist. They call them black markets, but black markets are usually the most free markets and will alway bring the phony market in line. Now they are about to merge. Bankers will not be happy. Money does not bring you true happiness anyhow. It onle forces you to abandon the life you have in pursuit of money, trading the reality for a fantasy and when your pursuit runs out of gas, you have neither. You will have a blackened soul, no family and any largesse you think you have will be eaten up by lawsuits andother greedy people in pursuit of taking it from you. Sounds like a wonderful pursuit. Simplify, simplify, simplify. Make as much money as you can and still sleep like a baby at night and enjoy your family. It took me awhile to figure this out. I have made it in both worlds. Now lets watch the bankers start hanging themselves. Orville redinbacher should be a hot stock.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 12:52 | 5842690 -.-
-.-'s picture

She looks like a fucking mole-woman.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:07 | 5843959 exartizo
exartizo's picture

What this article doesn't tell you is that American corporations are not so stupid.

They are buying their stock back (at what they perceive as relatively "cheap" prices) in anticipation of a crash in the euro and the accompanying influx of massive amounts of capital into the relative safe haven of the United States stock market.

When the Euro does crash those same large corporations simply resell the stock at a HUGE profit with the relatively free money they borrowed and turn their current debt position into an equity position.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 23:58 | 5844597 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

When the show ends, you neither have a dead horse (stocks) or a dead donkey (bonds) just an ASS for company.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 05:56 | 5844957 falga
falga's picture

Buying back stock is like a modern Ponzi scheme but also shows how risk is not priced correctly as the stock buying hides management business model bankruptcy

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