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David Stockman Warns "It's One Of The Scariest Moments In History"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"The Fed is out of control," exclaims David Stockman - perhaps best known for architecting Reagan's economic turnaround known as 'Morning in America' - adding that "people don't want to hear the reality and the truth that we're facing." The following discussion, with Harry Dent, outlines their perspectives on the looming collapse of free market prosperity and the desctruction of American wealth as policymakers "take our economy in a direction that is dangerous, that is not sustainable, and is likely to fully undermine everything that's been built up and created by the American people over decades and decades." The Fed, Stockman concludes, "is a rogue institution," and their actions have led us to "one of the scariest moments in our history... it's a festering time-bomb and we're not sure when it will explode."

 

Full Discussion:

 

Full Transcript here.

Key Excerpts from the detailed interview:

David Stockman: People don't want to hear the reality and the truth that we're facing. But I think there is an enormous appetite out in the country to get a different perspective than what you have from the media day in and day out, so I say the fed is out of control. Its balance sheet is exploded. It's printing money like never before.

Zero interest rates for 70 months have basically destroyed the pricing function in the financial markets. I said that as a result of this, Wall Street has become a huge casino which basically rewards gamblers, but it is not functioning as a capital raising, capital allocating instrument, which really is what the financial markets should do in a free market system. I warned about the size of the federal debt. I'm an old budget director from the Reagan days. We had a trillion dollar national debt, a 3 trillion economy when I started. Today, it's 18 trillion. Eighteen fold gain in the last 35 years versus maybe a fourfold gain in the economy. So all of these trends are taking our economy in a direction that is dangerous, that is not sustainable, and is likely to fully undermine everything that's been built up and created by the American people over decades and decades.

So people don't want to hear the warning. They don't want to hear the truth in the establishment, in Wall Street, in Washington, but I think out in the country they must.

*  *  *

David Stockman: Well it's obvious that Wall Street is addicted to cheap money and unlimited flow of new liquidity into the markets. Traders can then borrow money on an overnight basis for five basis points, which is nothing. Buy anything with a yield like a ten-year or five-year bond or speculate in stocks that they think might be going up or even get fancier and go into derivatives or commodity futures or whatever. And then capture the profit or the spread between the cheap money that the fed is putting into the overnight market and the yield or profit they're making on the asset, and they're leveraging way up.

You know, 90 percent, 95 percent in many cases. So obviously, the whole financial market is dependent on this, but it comes at a cost. It is destroying savers in America. If you worked a lifetime and saved $100,000.00, you're making $400.00 a year in interest from a lifetime of savings. I think there will be a revolt sooner or later of the American public against this disastrous crushing of the saver in order to essentially accommodate Wall Street's appetite for liquidity.

*  *  *

David Stockman: Well you know, the problem is the fed, I've described, is a rogue institution. It's operating beyond any of the legislative intent or statutory authority that's been given to them over the years. They have essentially become a national monetary planning agency that has decided they can drive the daily, weekly, monthly movement of the economy by manipulating interest rates and the yield curve by putting a put under the stock prices by essentially trying to drive the entire 18 trillion or 17 trillion US economy from Wall Street. That is fundamentally at variance with the requisites of a healthy capitalist economy. You need an honest financial market. Not a manipulated one.

You need price discovery by people that have their money at risk, not the central bank.

Harry Dent: Actually, it's a centrally planned economy, isn't it?

David Stockman: Right, exactly.

*  *  *

So David, do you think the republican congress can save us from this economic sundown that we've been discussing today?

David Stockman: Well I would like to think so, and they talk a good game, but unfortunately when push comes to shove, they're in the consensus with everyone else in the beltway in Washington and are unwilling to take on the hard issues. We are borrowing still $600 billion in the last year, six years after allegedly the great recession ended, and we are setting ourselves up for trillion dollar deficits again, the next time the economy stumbles or we have a recession or some other dislocation. The fact is the fed is not abolished the business cycle. The fed has not made the world completely safe from these kinds of dislocations. So therefore, we need to look at what's driving this huge deficit, and the answer is big entitlements and big defense spending, and the republicans are unwilling to take on the Pentagon. They want more, and they're afraid to take on Social Security and the entitlements because they believe that is going to be problematic politically.

So therefore, nothing is being done about the structure of this deficit problem, and we're just basically stumbling our way into another huge crisis in ballooning national debt.

*  *  *

David Stockman: Well, it's one of the scariest moments I think in our history, but also we need to recognize we're in uncharted waters. No central bank has ever printed this much money this long, kept interest rates at zero, fueled so much speculation. Not just here, but worldwide. Not just in the normal stocks and bonds, but the whole shale boom, for instance, in the United States was massively funded by cheap debt based on oil prices that weren't sustainable, and now that's all coming unwound. We have never had deficits of ten percent of GDP back to back, or even still four or five percent four or five years into a recovery.

We have a runaway budget where the population is getting older and older, 10,000 people are retiring every day. Nothing is being done about Social Security. It's a festering time bomb, and we're not sure how it will explode, but we know it isn't sustainable. We have a Wall Street that is more addicted to pure overnight gambling and trading and speculation for the ultra short run that is driven by robo traders, the so-called HFT money, like never before. It's unstable. That's why we see things happen like the overnight 40 percent gain with the Swiss Franc when the Swiss National Bank pulled the pay.

Forty percent overnight – not overnight, but in a couple of minutes or seconds when there were hundreds of billions of short positions in the Swiss Franc. All of these things have never existed simultaneously, not only in the United States, but worldwide. All the central banks are doing it. We're reaching the point where it's unsustainable, things are going to give and break, but the good thing is it's going to be more a disaster in the financial markets in my view, less some kind of Great Depression impact on Main Street. It will be difficult on Main Street, but Wall Street is in the gun sites of this disaster coming.

*  *  *

David Stockman: I agree. In the long run, we have to get off this debt addiction. We need to get back to sound finance both in government and households, but beginning between here and there is going to cause enormous pain for millions of households who have been herded into risky investments, junk bond funds, stock market funds, high flying biotech stocks and on and on because they were told it's the only place to be. If you put your money in a CD, you get no return. If you put your money in a safe bond, you get almost no return. Now when the big reset, as Harry calls it, happens, and the stock market drops by large magnitudes, 50 percent, more, those people who were herded into these risky investments late in life – Because remember, we have the baby boom, you know, heading towards their retirement homes, are going to be badly hurt at a time that they can't recover, and it will be a massive injustice that is being done by Washington and the fed to this current generation of middle class Americans. That will produce, in my view, a political reaction, a political revolt that will begin to say, "What's wrong here? Who believed that printing money out of thin air can make a society wealthier? Why did we do that? Who believed that we can actually create jobs and new economic output on Main Street simply by having the fed press a button and create another billion dollars?"

*  *  *

David Stockman: Yeah, I agree with that, and the point to remember is that massive money printing by central banks on a worldwide basis is inherently deflationary for two reasons. One, it fuels massive financial speculation. When we talk about speculation, we're talking about professional gamblers who borrow 95 cents and use that borrowed money that they pay practically nothing for to buy stocks or bonds or commodities or derivatives or biotech stocks and so forth as I indicated. All of that buying power is artificial. That is not coming from production today, real effort in the economy. That's coming from newly minted credit.

So it takes asset prices to unreasonable, unsustainable levels. They crash, and that creates a negative economic cycle. Secondly, massive money printing makes capital and debt too cheap to the real sector of the economy. So therefore, massive capital investments are made on the basis of cheap cost of capital, not on the basis of the likely return or sustainable return over time.

*  *  *
David Stockman: Yeah, a famous American economist once said anything that's unsustainable tends to stop. My argument is that we're at the stop point. The fed has been printing money like there's no tomorrow really for 25 years since Greenspan took over in 1987. They are now at the point where their balance sheet has become so bloated, so enormous that even the people running the fed are confused about what to do. They've painted themselves into a corner, and they're playing it by the day, and they're going to make a huge mistake. So the money printing thing is near an end.

Secondly, our political system has become totally non-functional. We have a lame duck president who can accomplish nothing, a congress that is totally paralyzed, meaning that before 2017 at the earliest, nothing will be done about our fiscal and entitlement explosion. Finally, the American people have believed falsely that all of this is going to work out. It's not going to. When they find out that the adults so called in Washington had no clue what they were doing, there is going to be a collapse of confidence, and that will flow into the system as well.

*  *  *
So it seems like this bubble bursting is inevitable. How much time do we have? Is it years, months? How will we know? Are there some clues we can look into to make sure that we're prepared?

David Stockman: There's really no magic numbers here, but it's remarkable that these central bank driven bubbles tend to peak after about six years. The dot com bubble started really in mid-1994 with the famous Netscape IPO. It crashed in March 2000, six years. The housing bubble roughly started in 2002. It totally crashed in 2008. Six years. The meltdown on Wall Street bottomed in March 2009. Add six years. 2015. I think we're at the end of this bubble simply based on the fact that they can't expand forever. They reach an asymptotic peak, and then confidence is lost, a catalyst occurs, a black swan appears, the selling begins, and there's nothing under this market. There is no safety net under this market.

*  *  *
Is there anything that can save us?

David Stockman: Yes, there are, and in the short run, that will be painful. There will be great dislocations, both in the financial markets and the real economy. But in the long run, that's a good thing. We have become so dependent on government, we have come to believe that the Federal Reserve drives the economy hour by hour, day by day. None of that is historically true. Real wealth, real prosperity comes from the sweat and from the enterprise and from the invention of people on Main Street, not the politicians on Wall Street who are on the central bank. So I think the big inflection point that we're facing is when the big crash comes, on the other side, maybe we can get back to the private enterprise system and the kind of family self-reliance and thrift and prudence that our prosperity was built on 40 years ago.

*  *  *

David Stockman: Well in The Great Deformation, I said, "We're heading towards a day of reckoning. This isn't sustainable." It's happening in real time, and in the updates, what I try to do is focus on the catalyst events, the catalyzing forces that will warn us when we're really getting to the edge of the cliff.

That is the central banks. Japan's central bank is out of control. I watch that. It's important to know what happens there because if the great money printing debt experience in Japan finally fails, it's going to be noted in markets all around the world. I watch the ECB, European Central Bank. It is divided between Germans who want to try to maintain some semblance of some money and the rest of Europe that would like to print and drown themselves in debt as far as the eye can see. It's important to watch China, which is a giant house of cards, that's on the verge of collapse, and that will ricochet around the world in terms of the countries that supply it. Australia, Korea, the so-called emerging markets, and what it'll do to the theory, which I think is false that China is the engine of growth in the world, it is not. It is the biggest speculative disaster in human history.

*  *  *
David Stockman: Well, the crisis is unfolding by the day. It is not too late to start preparing right noW. Now is the time to begin to save if you can and minimize your outlays for unnecessary luxuries. This is going to be a devastating crisis, and people will be happy down the road if they take the steps to prepare today.

 

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Sun, 03/01/2015 - 19:28 | 5843910 Atomizer
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Clear your computer cashe. Might want to check whats on your registry. Could be senting a morse code echo.

 

/LOL

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 19:15 | 5843874 Bear
Bear's picture

AD ... Tyler, I hope they paid you too.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 19:34 | 5843929 Majic
Majic's picture

I know articles like this are old news when I read them, but I still like them because when I'm done I don't feel like I'm just some nut who thinks times are going to get tougher.   The delusion of the bread and circus fed sheeple never ceases to amaze, and at the same time alarm me.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:49 | 5845607 Farmer Joe in B...
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You're DEF not alone.  I'm pretty sure I've been skirting with clinical depression/anxiety for at least a couple of years now.  We will be vindicated and it will be bittersweet.  Just hope we're prepared for whatever form this beast takes...

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 19:34 | 5843930 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Let's not forget also that ZIRP triggered a surge of volatility in commodity markets, directly causing unrest in the MENA due to food prices. The chaos of the "Arab Spring" gave birth to the crisis in Libya and over 200,000 dead (and counting) in Syria, which in turn raised tensions with Russia.

Yes, the Fed is a rogue institution. Playing around with the USD supply to save banksters has global geopolitical consequences because the USD is the unit of international trade.

I maintain that Bernanke has blood on his hands, a lot of it. It doesn't matter if it was unintended, manslaughter is still a crime.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 19:55 | 5843974 GMadScientist
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtPk5IUbdH0

"Dealin' in multiplication...and they still can't feed everyone..."

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:04 | 5843997 TradingTroll
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Some people,  like this dude, seem to think Fibonacci retracements only apply to stocks as if progress doesn't have retracements.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:08 | 5844008 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

"...looming collapse of free market prosperity..."

Looming???  Me thinks the collapse has been ongoing for sometime and the "Morning in America" economic policies of insane defensae spending and deficits sure as fuck accelerated it.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:10 | 5844018 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It sometimes takes "Charlie Gibson's Middle Class" a little while to catch on.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:19 | 5844021 One Eyed Jack
One Eyed Jack's picture

I would like to solicit a question from The Zero hedge posters. The question is simple:

But let me preface it with this story I have a close relative that is unemployed and been so for two years and is or will be homeless soon his solution was well I' ll sleep in the back of my truck and head west and look for something. When I questioned him about his decision; have you ever lived rough outside in below zero temperatures, lived hand to mouth, done hard physical labor, lived on very little and worked multiple jobs?

His response was naw I'll figure it out i want a job that pays well and works little. When confronted with the question of what are you bringing to the party to offer an employer his response was a lot of years in unskilled labor with no education.

This person believes himself to be a libertarian conservative the sense of entitlement is unfathomable.

So to the question when I read these stories or more accurately the responses I sometimes come away with a feeling of unease
Question have any of you ever lived rough, slept in the elements, went without food or medical treatment, done hard physical lanor?

I have done all these it fucking sucks so I wonder when people discuss a post economic collapse scenario or revolution with what sounds like an almost reverent desire I have to question your thought process.
Why would you want to suffer it why would you want to fight for your liberty now, while it's easier than when it will be infinitely more difficult?

It will not be like a camping trip to jelly stone use the aftermath of Hurricaine Katrina as an example that was only a few days and in a relatively isolated area with rest of the country left untouched. In a full grid down coupled with economic ruin and wide spread violence where will you go? What will you do?

I apologize in advance I do not mean to incite just honestly want to get opinions and gain understanding thank you.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:35 | 5844079 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I've done just enough of all of that stuff to know what it means, but then I think most people over age 50-something probably have, and maybe a lot of "millennial" types growing up in the modern world just have not, have not even gone camping or done this kind of stuff on a dude ranch or a scout troop or whatever.  Instead they spent their time locked in a prison for kiddies being indoctrinated on their entitlement to a good life, whatever that means.  Keeping up with the Kardashians.  Somebody, somewhere, will provide.

I think that's what makes a lot of us older types look askance at the younger generation, somehow it looks like the ball has been dropped.  Still, well, it really is a different world now and maybe they are more right than we know, and still have time to figure it out. 

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 20:42 | 5844101 One Eyed Jack
One Eyed Jack's picture

I agree I'm nearly 46 the person to which I am referring is 49 and has never known privation, suffering, or struggle.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 22:21 | 5844381 marmotmanor
marmotmanor's picture

One eyed jack. Almost been bankrupted a couple of times. Been to the point of having to take bread from the church charity bins to feed my family. No money, desperate to pay the rent. These days I qualify in the 1%, and feck its a long way down and I know I dont want to go there as it is really really nasty. 

 

I was at University in the 70's, (now 55), and economics 101 was that you dont print the currency as it debases it. 102 was market price discovery.

Well they ripped all that up didnt they.

Well thats been thrown out. Hopefully ive got a strategy that will work. Around 2008 i had half a dozen people come to me to lend them money. This time around, I can see a lot of baby boomers are going to get smashed and have the arse out their pants. I know that Ill end up helping a lot of family and friends. A lot of good people just trying to get by, and who never saw this train crash coming.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 05:36 | 5844949 One Eyed Jack
One Eyed Jack's picture

Thanks you MarmotManor. I appreciate hearing your story and your opinion.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:03 | 5844808 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

I think there is an element of "payback's a bitch" in many people's thinking-- including mine. After decades of being ridiculed and belittled and marginalized by society, there would be some element of satisfaction in seeing their tall castles thrown down into the dirt.

Even more satisfying would be the thought that those who foresaw the downfall, warned constantly about it, and denied themselves sybaritic immediate pleasure in favor of diligent preparation for the inevitable will eventually find themselves in a position to elevate their social condition over that of those who currently regard them as lowlifes.

Regardless of how the overturning of the current society occurs, it will offer opportunities and dangers for all. As in any other form of gambling, you plan your strategy and you place your bets on the wagers that seem most likely to offer a payoff.

The first wager is a simple one--

There are people who are betting their futures on the idea that everything will work out because it always has before. That is their bet.

There are people who are betting that doom is pre-ordained and that they will become the new aristocracy because they have studiously prepared themselves for the great change. That is their bet.

There are people who have confidence in themselves and expect that they will be fine no matter what happens. That is their bet.

There are even people who are convinced that the end is definitely coming but choose to squeeze maximum enjoyment out of our current lifestyle and expect that they will vanish in a bright flash of light.

All you can reasonably expect to do is to make your own assessment of the probabilities and arrange your affairs so as to maintain maximum flexibility no matter what happens. As Von Moltke the Elder put it:  "The enemy always seems to have three options, and usually ends up choosing a fourth."

Personally, I do recognize that humans have never had it so good as they currently do in western societies. Never. And I believe in doing what can be done to keep that system alive. But that system rests upon a series of philosophical determinations which are rotting away underneath the facade. Without a restoration of those underlying Enlightenment beliefs, we are doomed to descend into the chaotic ruin that has brought every other empire to its knees before us.

So we must attempt to restore, and simultaneously plan to rebuild, because we cannot know which pathway will end up in the winners circle-- although many here have placed their bets.

"If we lose faith in ourselves, in our own capacity to guide and govern, then indeed our story is told."

-- WLS Churchill

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 05:46 | 5844954 One Eyed Jack
One Eyed Jack's picture

Tarabel I understand your point and I have felt the same with the pay back aspect. Very informative thank you.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 07:08 | 5844988 honestann
honestann's picture

Good, thoughtful reply.  My bet, placed 3~4 years ago, is a bet that being as self-sufficient as humanly possible (while still on planet earth) has the best risk-reward ratio... FOR ME.

However, I also recognize that I am not [self] wired the same way most humans are, so it is, in fact, appropriate that not everyone place the same bets.  For example, some people are so addicted to a highly social life that... they'd rather live a few more months or years in their current highly social and interdependent lifestyle then die horribly, than move to the boonies (or tiny settlement in an essentially rural area).  And that's okay.  To each their own.

My hope is, people think long, hard and honestly before they place their bet... and then accept the consequences of their bets as gracefully as reality permits.

Of course the big problem is, most people live in denial on autopilot, and never explicitly consider choices, much less explicitly make and execute a choice.  The vast majority of these folks will most definitely not accept the consequences of their choice to not wake up and choose.

I feel lucky... but also deserving.  I worked my butt off since I was a little kid, lived an incredibly frugal life (without ever feeling put upon, since that was my choice), and I managed to accumulate just barely enough life savings by four years ago to build my self-sufficient place (and my little toy airplane for transportation) in the extreme boonies.  To put it mildly, I made the right choice... for me.  I love the extreme boonies (125km from the nearest human being), I love the weather, geology, physical environment and dark southern skies here.  So for me, the actions I took to escape the evil empire and coming collapse actually improved my life dramatically!  So, as I said, I feel both deserving, but also lucky.  For once (it seems), timing worked out perfectly (including the fact that I had to convert virtually my entire savings from gold to cash at almost exactly the peak of the gold price, which was pure luck).

Of course, as some have said, people who are very alert, very frugal, very insightful, very responsible, and very independent are the ones who put themselves in the situation where luck is more probable.  I believe that.

-----

I find that quote interesting, "The enemy always seems to have three options, and usually ends up choosing a fourth".  This is an important quote in the current context.  It illustrates a huge problem for everyone who is responsible, and does try to make a wise choice and take wise actions.  The problem being... how does one make a wise choice when you don't know which of three diverse options will be the one that plays out, especially when most likely a fourth, totally unexpected option is the most likely?  This is one reason I personally like the "become as self-sufficient as possible" option.  For others who haven't saved up $250K to $500K or more to "escape the system", the best alternative is to move to a very rural, very low cost of living area where at least some of your neighbors grow a lot more food than they consume.  That's a pretty good second-best choice, as long as you have enough time before the crash to cement a reputation with your neighbors as an extremely friendly, helpful, honest neighbor (if not great friend).  If you adopt this behavior in very rural areas, and never demand anything, you will likely receive quite a bit of help when you need it most in the coming years.

You say you believe in doing what can be done to keep the system alive.  Seriously?  That's the worst possible thing you can do!  The system is utterly corrupt, and so you should want the system to collapse.  Do not make the mistake of thinking the system we have is honest and viable just because many of them still CALL the system "capitalism" or "freedom" or "democracy".  The system is utterly corrupt, and must be utterly destroyed.

But you seem to know that, since you talk about "restoring the enlightenment beliefs".  What you really need to understand is, enlightenment beliefs are WRONG, and AWFUL --- even if they were big improvements over earlier beliefs.  What you need to demand after the crash is... INDIVIDUALISM.  Which means, ZERO government.  Which means, the acceptance of ZERO involuntary relationships between humans, and the complete and utter rejection of FICTIONS (like "law", "legal", "nation", "govern", "corporation", "government"... and especially "authority").  As long as human beings accept the fiction called "authority", they are SCREWED.

After the crash, if honest, ethical, productive humans do not adopt an intransigent policy of vigorous self-defense against all human predators... NOTHING WILL IMPROVE.  It will only get increasingly worse, until mankind becomes extinct.  Humans really must again wear modern versions of six-shooters, and exterminate anyone who attempts to harm them or their family or friends, or steal their stuff, or tell them what they must do, or what the must not do.  Only when the risk of being a predator is extreme... will those who wish to be predators choose an honest, ethical, productive alternative.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 08:16 | 5845068 SmallerGovNow2
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your name should be "awesomeann"...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 06:56 | 5844981 Majic
Majic's picture

Jack,

You won't find much prepper talk on this site, but from comments I have deducted that there are a lot of forward thinking individuals here.  To answer your question, I'm going to barter in my neck of the woods like there is no tomorrow.  I have vocational skills that will be needed no matter what happens

     I have seen some kind of dislocation coming since before 2008 ( still got bit on the ass in 08', though) and have been trying to get as self-sufficient as possible ever since.   I'm no doomsday bunker type, I just don't like getting caught with my pants down.  In the event of some major collapse I will hunker down and live much more quietly, simple pleasures ( like just being able to eat) will be paramount.

     Since I have been trying to be self-contained longer than some, I will shelter in place and only run for my life if I have to.  There will be a lot of quiet time after a day of hard labor and a lot of sleeping with one eye open and listening for the dog to bark.  As I am able I will then assist in rebuilding my community and lifting up my friends.     

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:27 | 5845295 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

liquor

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 21:07 | 5844173 q99x2
q99x2's picture

These guys are so optimistic. What the hell do they think the DHS is for and why the world trade centers taken down. They aren't saying what is truthful because they talk as if the FED and Washington D.C. don't know what they are doing. Oh well what they say is true but it is F'n worse.

Also its a freakin infomercial. I'm going back to doing my homework.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 21:24 | 5844221 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

OK, So if main street Homer has done took the hit, don't it make sense to go on and give 'em some rope?

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 22:05 | 5844338 marmotmanor
marmotmanor's picture

Double post

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 22:09 | 5844339 marmotmanor
marmotmanor's picture

I started ignoring Dent when he said that Gold would drop below $700.

 

Not because I didnt like the figure, but more importantly because it was way below the cost of production. You would have every second gold mine in the world shutting down.

 

That against insatiable demand out of the east. Cycles are wonderful things but they must be treated for what they are.

 

Its like looking at trading charts these days. You might as well rip them up or make a funny hat. When you lose the price discovery, and risk falls to 0, then no chart makes any sense.

 

USA, Europe, Japan probably china are all broke. What was the game, lets race to the bottom, so when the reset comes, we are placed in the best position vis a vis the rest of the trading. Looks like its not really working. Everybody is trying to out do everybody else

 

In the end - the elite - will have worked out their life boat position. It'll be solid, it will be tangible. As China and Russia are stockpiling their gold stocks, you can be sure they are all preparing to have that "discussion", most likely at a time of world chaos in financial markets, and effectively say. Ok boys "ill see you". Whats everybody got.

New world currency backed by gold. They will write economic textbooks about this for hundreds of years. 

 

Lots of blocks falling into place at the moment. First test with Austraian bank over the last few days. It goes broke, they gauge how the public deal with it and then slowly move ahead. What I hear is that 2016 will be the year of the "big sort out", or as they say, whose swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Sun, 03/01/2015 - 23:32 | 5844538 Blano
Blano's picture

Dent's first book was good. Since then he's been a huckster.

Seeing Stockman with Dent makes me wonder about him now as well. 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 00:18 | 5844647 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"There's really no magic numbers here, but it's remarkable that these central bank driven bubbles tend to peak after about six years. The dot com bubble started really in mid-1994 with the famous Netscape IPO. It crashed in March 2000, six years. The housing bubble roughly started in 2002. It totally crashed in 2008. Six years. The meltdown on Wall Street bottomed in March 2009. Add six years. 2015. I think we're at the end of this bubble simply based on the fact that they can't expand forever. They reach an asymptotic peak, and then confidence is lost, a catalyst occurs, a black swan appears, the selling begins, and there's nothing under this market. There is no safety net under this market."

Interesting. Stockman basically identified the Shemitah without recognizing it. Let's see if the end of the Shemitah year, September 13, 2015 goes out with a bang as it has every seven years.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 00:30 | 5844672 Magooo
Magooo's picture

I say again David - do you think the Fed is STUPID?  If you know how this ends --- and I know how this ends -- and anyone with half a brain knows how this ends...

 

WHY WOULD THEY DO THIS????  WHAT DO THEY FEAR SO MUCH THAT WOULD LEAD THEM TO IMPLEMENT SUCH DESTRUCTIVE POLICIES?

 

THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 59 onwards)

The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

 

When this ends - civilization ends --- and we are all dead.    Print baby print!!! 

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 01:00 | 5844726 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

i feel like i'm watching an infomercial.  "you're gonna love my nuts - slap chop!"

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 01:09 | 5844739 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

fear is the mind killer

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 01:35 | 5844780 dogismycopilot
dogismycopilot's picture

She is not a bad looking older woman. Is it me or did anyone else become a bit aroused watching her. It kind of reminded me of one of those old 1970s porns. I liked her v-cut blouse. That was HAWT. This is the sort of woman you want to meet at the airport bar on that long layover.

But certainly nothing worth buying.

We all know this - I would gather Stockman is just trying to make some more money before the music stops. Greedy bastard should be out working for a charity or something because i am sure he has made at least $2 million off his book sales alone.

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:19 | 5844823 Sovereign Economist
Sovereign Economist's picture

Ya gotta love it... all that for an INFOMERCIAL for DENT'S Books.... ah well, at least they had a decent conversation about what's coming....

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:27 | 5844830 Jack Daniels Esq
Jack Daniels Esq's picture

Impeach all 535 + ICiC - bring plenty rope

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:35 | 5844839 Duck077
Duck077's picture

What "free market economy" is she talking about?  After listing to all of Dent's predictions is amussing, I've read all his books and there are many that did not come to pass.  "Dow 30,000"  Maybe some day.  What is a "Neo Con"? The Jews" that's how it was explained to me in the past,  doesn't make sense to me.

 

Stockman's forcast is closer to the mark.  Dent is somewhat on track.  Picking dates makes you look wrong.  Of cource, special Intrest control things, polititons need fucking money.

 

These two guys are correcti in the long run.  But if you listened to them since 2008 you probably left a lot of money on the table.  buy gold/silver, stay away form stocks.  Timing is everything. 10k retiring daily, how many being born, or sneaking arcross the border?

 

I hope Dent is correct and home prices plummet 50%  I need a cheaper home.  The reset? Yeh right?  Most of the poor and poor for a reason.

 

Stockman looses me when he talks about the American that were "herded here" or there.  What? a the fucking idiots?  It's their choice.  

 

People are borrowing more.  At least the ones I speak to.  They buy new cars, houses, and take out loans for college.  There is easy money still.  Not at peak debt with all.  There is no difference between Republicans and Democarts.  They are the same, both pricks that speak to their stupid vothers.

 

The "Greatest Generation" and their peice of shit lazy babyboomer kids bankrupted our nation.  They need to be held accountable.  All Dems and Republicans suck.  They all spend more, they all fuck the future gerneration, etc....  

 

I'm waiting for the deleverageing. Cash is king.  Gold?Silver, a hedge.  Real property and tangible things.  Bring it on.  The BS from NBCS and most of the people that make news are ass holes.  Buy your new Ford F 150. When they take it, use you 5K cash stashed away to buy it out right.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 08:36 | 5845083 commoncourtesy
commoncourtesy's picture

If only time could be bought.

Personally, I would rather be a year (or two) too early than one day too late! 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:35 | 5844840 Duck077
Duck077's picture

Borrow off the ass, defualt, have cash statshed, and buy the assets back.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:36 | 5844843 Duck077
Duck077's picture

Borrow off the ass, defualt, have cash statshed, and buy the assets back.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 02:37 | 5844846 Duck077
Duck077's picture

I've followed both these guys for years.  It will drive you nuts.  Both are correct, both are wrong, no body know timong, which is important when you invest excess capital.  Take care, fuck the system, because they will fuck you.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 03:48 | 5844899 Atticus Finch
Atticus Finch's picture

What is needed is a one stop shopping place that compares 2007 to today that shows in the critical factors that things are exponentially worse. Does anyone know of a place where these comparisons exist, all in one place? If anybody knows of the existence of direct comparisons 2007 - 2014 for the critical economic factors, please put the link on Zero Hedge.

Has anyone assembled a comprehensive comparison to show that things are significantly worse. Not just claim that they are.

People need a presentation of this information because many people are deluded into thinking that things are going to get better.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 04:51 | 5844925 fxpmtrader
fxpmtrader's picture

Stockman is 1 in 10 millions who knows what is coming - and IS prepared.

The rest - 8 billions - cluessless short memoried ignorant and worthless sheeple.

Which since Stonage - have nothing at all learned from history.

Neither the 0.01% nor the 99.99%.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 05:21 | 5844942 The.Harmless.Jew
The.Harmless.Jew's picture

 

 

Superb article as always by Stockman. Lots of love and respect for the man.  

 

The problem is, whenever we get a plethora of bearish / doomsday articles, the markets just gives us the finger, and goes up up up. 

 

I suspect a lot of angry folks are still long gold from $1900 and short SPX from around 700.  Lifted by the daily bearish articles. 

 

Now, I'm no fan of a tribal controlled (via the FED) markets et al, but to "prepare" one has to have the currency of the day, and so I'm compelled to take risks in order have my physical gold, to have no debts / mortgage on my land, and to have food and other defence materials.  

 

So, yeah, fuck the markets, fuck the fed and the tribes that control it, but now whenever there's a bearish article, I tend to make a quick scalp off the market on a long position - I'm already in/out from the FTSE and DAX positions.

 

Take it easy folks, and for the FED zionists, fuck you.

 

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 07:28 | 5845006 U-P-G-R-A-Y-E-D-D
U-P-G-R-A-Y-E-D-D's picture

Isn't that dude Ron from Ronco?  His lips certainly look like Ronco.  PMs, set it and forget it!

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 10:08 | 5845225 fremannx
fremannx's picture

Stockman is right, of course. THe global debt bubble is bursting and the result will be catastrophy. People can only remain in denial for so long.

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 11:20 | 5845490 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

"when the big crash comes, on the other side, maybe we can get back to the private enterprise system and the kind of family self-reliance and thrift and prudence that our prosperity was built on 40 years ago."

Not going to happen.  The autocratic federal government will double down on control.  It will openly nationalize industry, whereas before it only controlled them.

Mon, 03/02/2015 - 15:42 | 5846480 juantrades
juantrades's picture

Financial apocalypse when? Ask Stockman pretty thorough analysis

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